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Scott Melker
There's a very specific reason why this bitcoin bull run is likely to be much bigger than those in the past. As we said here. Bitcoin bull run on steroids. This is based on a tweet from my good friend Bill Barheit who is here today to share his thoughts. Of course, we've also got Yago. Because it's Thursday, we're going to talk about everything. Bitcoin and markets. Let's go. Let's.
Bill Barheit
Foreign.
Scott Melker
What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. We love a little hyperbole in our titles. Bitcoin bull run on steroids. Here's why Bitcoin is poised to erupt. Btc. You see, we said bitcoin wants a BTC once. Maybe it would help the algorithm. But this is based, Bill, on a conversation we've had many times. But you had this awesome tweet right here. We're in for a bitcoin bull run at a scale we've never seen. There's a simple yet game changing truth about bitcoin that many ignore. You made a video. Maybe you can just simply break this down for us. The thesis here.
Bill Barheit
Sure. So. So my thesis is based upon the confluence of a whole bunch of things. But the, the most important piece of this confluence is, is basically government liquidity. Right. My, my working assumption has been for 18 months and I'm not the only one that talks about this. There are people that get paid to talk about this. I don't that we're in a basically a massive government printing liquidity cycle. I saw a fantastic chart yesterday from Jamie. I forget his last name. I think it's Couch or Coots. I don't know how you say it. He basically talked about these what he calls liquidity super regimes, right? And they're basically basing patterns that play out over multiple years. It just so happens that they also coincide. They have coincided in the past more or less with the having cycle this year or this cycle. It seems to be a little bit later. So in other words, we're coming out of a pen and basing pattern to the upside on government liquidity maybe seven, six, seven months later than in the last two having cycles. But it points to a significant amount of money printed coming this year combined with, you know, the last year's having cycle combined with tailwinds now, headwinds that have turned into tailwinds. Right. With the government and Trump and all the talk of I love crypto and you know, regulatory clarity, but the bottom line is, is that we are seeing significant money printing this year. We've got seven, seven and a half trillion ish in, in debt that needs to be refinanced. It will be refinanced at higher rates. Yes, Doge is doing a good job in, in getting baseline down, but that is being massively offset by interest payments and, and the, the debt burden that we already have. So, so I expect to see, you know, crypto act like a sponge for that liquidity. I wouldn't be surprised to see a, you know, I think I, you know, there's a few people that think that bitcoin dominance has, has topped. I'm unsure it's possible but I still expect to see the, the real altrun in the second half of, of this year really hasn't started yet. Although it's been really nice to see that the dominance kind of peter out the last week or so. But there's no evidence that, that, that it's, you know, permanently gone. It's, it's, it's clearly, you know, the trend is still there. It hasn't really broken trend yet, but I think sub, you know, sub 50, you could really say that it's, it's maybe, well, I can't read the chart but probably 755, you could probably say right, right there.
Scott Melker
Yeah, it's currently at 62.85. It went as low as 6189 and it had topped at about 65.4. So yeah, I think this was a, a nice little run. But yes, I don't think you can say the top is in. We know how this goes. You get your altcoin action and then bitcoin comes back and goes up and everything. You have that brief moment where you have your altcoin action.
Bill Barheit
The bottom line is, is the liquidity super cycle is just about to start. I think it's starting a little bit later than it did in the last kind of 10 years via the previous two havings. I think that was partially a coincidence. It just so happens that these interest rate cycles have overlapped and you know, it just sets us up for a dramatic, a dramatic run. I think miners are still selling which is putting some price pressure on, on bitcoin still. And I think there's this, this wind unwind game going on with a little bit of leverage which is why everybody's saying, well if all these new companies are buying bitcoin and blah blah, blah, well first of all, the market cap of bitcoin is over a trillion dollars. Right. And, and so, you know, the ability for any one company to move the price is a little muted, you know, at scale, especially when miners still have to sell to some degree. So the amount of new hash power that's come in at a very, very high price is significant. And there's going to be a push and pull as a result for a while. But I think the push is going to win.
Scott Melker
Yago, I like it because this is just the simple listen, like they're going to print money. Global M2 is rising. Bitcoin lags, global M2, all the money is going to come in and it actually is enough to probably send bitcoin flying without all the other fundamental tailwinds that we talk about here all the time, which is those institutions buy and likely government adoption, all those things. That's why to me, I agree with you that this is kind of on.
Bill Barheit
Steroids because former drivers. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Scott Melker
So Yago, your thoughts?
Yago
I mean I think this has always been the, the thesis, right? Fiat is dissolving and bitcoin is hard commodity money which is borderless and therefore the entire world can adopt it. And so I think Bill and I have been writing the same story now for, I don't know, 14 years, something like that. But I, but Bill, I do have a question. So you, in your tweet you say, you know, this is going to be a run like we've never seen. What's your take on the idea that we're seeing diminishing returns from cycle to cycle?
Bill Barheit
Yeah, so. So two things. First, when I say the likes we've never seen, it's from the base of a trillion dollar asset class, right? So we've never seen a trillion dollar asset class go up 2 1/2 x or effectively double in a few weeks, which I think has a very good chance of happening here. Obviously bitcoin going from 100 to 500 is a much bigger percentage gain but at that time it's worth, you know, like 1/1000th of what it's worth now. Right. So, so that's super, you know, that's super unique here. And I think what's also happening is as bitcoin has gone up, the market cap has gone up. The ability for over levered perpetual futures contracts to create, you know, 70% volatility has been squeezing. Right. So first couple of cycles the volatility was 85%. You know, my guess is this cycle, you know, it'll peak at 40ish percent and, or maybe already did with the last pullback.
Scott Melker
Right.
Bill Barheit
Which I think may have been 35 to 38%. And, and you know, could easily diminish over time and, and bigger pullbacks would be more macro black swan driven, you know, like a, like a depression kind of thing which, which would affect the broader stock market and other risk on assets. But if it, if it actually plays itself out the way we would, we would believe over time, even then gold would, would have a run up during a depression. Right. So, so I, I really do believe that the broad based adoption is squeezing the, the, the volatility of, of bitcoin from cycle to cycle. And that has played itself out quite nicely over the last six, seven years. Yeah.
Yago
And I think we're also seeing more sophisticated players able to participate which means far more hedged positions, which means we're seeing dampening of the volatility on both.
Scott Melker
We didn't even have the options that they could use to hedge before on a lot of these products. So even the existence of the products to allow that to happen should dampen some of the volatility.
Bill Barheit
Yeah, but even if you didn't have the options, just think it through. Right. So if you have an asset that goes from a billion dollars to a trillion dollars and you have degens that have a smaller and smaller piece of it because of all the number of long term holders. Right. Their ability to, to move the market on a percentage basis gets diminished over time. And then on top of that you add the options that you're talking about and, and you know, right. You, you basically squeeze volatility.
Scott Melker
Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense. Go on Yago.
Yago
So that, but you know, I mean if you, if you were seeing the doubling that you're talking about in, in, in the space of a couple of weeks, I think we would be back to sort of 80 Vol.
Bill Barheit
Yeah, I don't think it'll be a couple of weeks to be clear. I didn't say that. Yeah, I think, I think it could be, you know, multiple weeks is in months but you know it's going to come faster than, than stock traders would expect.
Scott Melker
So I mean for 150 or 200 by October or November and then bitcoin dominance tops again and alts go crazy for two months. That would be pretty in line with previous cycles.
Bill Barheit
For example 100.
Scott Melker
That doesn't mean that's the top top. I'm just saying like that action shouldn't surprise anyone who's been here for 100? Yeah.
Yago
Yeah. I just, given the opportunity, I'm curious, I want to grab as much alpha from bull as I get. When you are looking at your liquidity measure or your M2 measure, what, what, what measures are you looking at, though?
Bill Barheit
Yeah, by definition, it's, it's predominantly US and Chinese contributions to gdp. But you, you know, obviously Japan and Europe have, have outweighed, you know, higher weightings than the rest of the world, but it's predominantly just money supply for us and China. If you just track those two. Right. And, and, and forget about everything else, you've got 80% of the picture, 85% of the picture. Everything else is, is either detail or noise. And, you know, the thing that's probably most unique about this cycle so far is the fact that the Fed has been holding rates steady while other countries have been lowering and our treasury rates have been going up. And so, you know, this is a function of the fact that regardless of Trump's efforts, which I think are bearing fruits, a lot of countries just don't want to hold our debt right now. And predominantly that means China and Japan, who are net sellers and have been net sellers for some time. In a market where we have to refinance more debt than we've cumulatively printed.
Scott Melker
Before that yields open the day at 4.55%. Right. We shouldn't be in a situation where you have dollar up, yield up, risk up, bitcoin up, crypto up, everything literally up except for gold. But gold now looks like it's bottoming, so maybe that's giving us a hint that we're about to see another kind of wobble here with the market. I mean, hard to know, but.
Bill Barheit
Yeah. But even debt, at the end of the day is supply and demand, right? So, so the supply of debt far outstrips the demand. That means that, you know, the price of the, the asset is, is falling and, and rates move opposite of price, so the rates are going to go up. Now, I, I do think that there's deals to be had. We don't, you know, they're not going to start doing press releases at the White House talking about how all these countries are going to buy our debt. That's not very sexy. But I wouldn't be surprised if some of these backroom dealings on tariffs includes commitments to buy treasuries.
Scott Melker
Yeah, 100%, when they probably have been selling them since Liberation Day to defend their own currencies and to fight back against the United States. For sure. Interestingly, we talk about the maturing trades and Options and the things that have been coming. I don't know if you guys saw this story, but investor Jim Chano's famous investor says he's been long Bitcoin and short MicroStrategy for the last couple of years. Wouldn't he be basically homeless at this point? I'm just kidding because obviously it depends on size. But how do you go on TV and say that you've been doing this for years and pretend like that's going well?
Bill Barheit
Yeah, I don't get it. I, I looked at that and I just said, okay, this is a, you know, black swan type of investment maybe, but even then I would expect in a black swan they would both fall precipitously. I, I just, there's something that I'm missing about the math of what he's saying. Okay, so the principle is, is there's a premium on MicroStrategy. Let's explain what he's saying first. Right. There's a premium.
Scott Melker
It makes sense. We all get that.
Bill Barheit
His premise is that that premium will, will close similar to the way. It's not exactly the same. But when we had the grayscale ARB trade going on, there was a premium to nav and traders were effectively taking advantage of that to squeeze the premium out as, as an art profit. It wasn't really an ARP as we saw with, with blockfi and others, but, but it was, you know, the trade was there for a while. He's basically making the same claim as it relates to, you know, publicly traded, you know, assets, bitcoin and, and MicroStrategy stock. The problem is, is that MicroStrategy has created a perpetual motion machine that keeps squeezing that arbout to buy more shares and, and keep going over and over again. And he has no intention of stopping. I guess the, the biggest risk to or the biggest opportunity for him would be unfortunately if, if something would happen. Michael Saylor and they stopped doing it. I could see the premium closing quickly.
Yago
Well, I think there's another, I think there's another risk to the premium and that is that once you invent free money machine, everyone wants one. So now, yeah, we already seen it. Heather and Softbank launching one and we've got the Nakamoto one launching. And so that drives more competition on that premium. Right? So if you're competing with other firms which have effectively the same strategy, then they're going to be looking to compete away your premium. How quickly that happens, I can't say.
Bill Barheit
Okay, so, so, so there are, there are myriad ways that he's able to finance these purchases. But the key method to my understanding has been fixed income markets. Right. So as rates have been going up. Right. Fixed income has basically been sitting on the sidelines trying to figure out where to put their money. And all of a sudden his convertible bonds look like a really good deal, which is what they've been doing. They've been financing his, his effectively convertible notes using fixed income markets. If the, the Fed can get treasury rates to fall somehow and those markets all of a sudden become more interesting and there's a flood of money back, his sources of investment dollars could dry up. But it's such a, I mean it's an order of magnitude better deal for those fixed income capital markets right now than traditional bonds. I don't have any visibility into that changing.
Scott Melker
Yeah, but I guess, I guess people are less worried about MicroStrategy. To Yago's point. I've been saying this every day than if we just see 20 or 30 companies appear whose sole strategy is to raise debt to buy Bitcoin. Right. It's like, and, and sell their shares. Maybe we just need one or two.
Bill Barheit
Yeah, yeah.
Scott Melker
I mean everyone can employ, doesn't that.
Yago
Yeah, yeah, it's, I don't actually think it dries up the demand. I think it competes away the margins on the demand. So you could have massive demand. The demand could even continue to grow. But the ability, this works best when you're a Monopoly player, right? Yeah, like, like a lot of things. And, and so, yeah.
Bill Barheit
And maybe we're also, you know, we're all kind of like equally confused. But the thing I don't get is if the premium is shrinking and bitcoin is skyrocketing, MicroStrategy shares can still be going up.
Yago
So, so he's long Bitcoin. He's, he's long Bitcoin.
Bill Barheit
No, I get that, I get that. But, but, Right.
Scott Melker
So I guess waiting also matters, Bill, because if, listen, if he's 4x long Bitcoin to his microstrategy short position, he could be making money in a cash. It could be a small hedge, but it's basically like depending on the weighting, it's a zero upside bet anyways. Or, or massive upside.
Bill Barheit
It's, it's not a bet that, you know, I, I, again, I, I, I get the grayscale version of that because of the, the difficulty and liquidity issues around grayscale. You don't have those liquidity issues with either of these two assets. So I don't know. I, I yeah, I'm. It's not, it's not a bet I, I would, I would personally wanna want to make. So if there was a big options premium, maybe that's how I would squeeze it.
Scott Melker
But, yeah, yeah, it's not, it's not the same as the carry trade. Like, it's not as straightforward as buy a future in Contago by, you know, sell a future into Contego, buy spot and collect yield because it's just far less predictable. And Yago, to your point, like, the two of them could just move together, right? Bitcoin going up should make microstrategy go up in theory, just maybe up less, as you're saying. Bill. I want to talk to you guys about something else, though. So obviously this came out this morning. Coinbase says bribed workers leaked data to hackers seeking 20 million in ransom. Quite of a wild story here. Brian Armstrong literally made one of those awkward from below selfie videos just to explain it. Basically, from what I understand is that some cyber criminals recruited some of Coinbase's customer service agents overseas. Basically said, hey, you're making 20 bucks an hour. How about I bribe you for some customer data? We see this, this is how SIM swaps happen, by the way. This is not unique to Coinbase. This is going to always happen in any company where there's an employee who can take a huge payday to leak information. Happens at every phone company, every bank, every everywhere. And then came to coinbase for a $20 million ransom. Said, we'll give you back the information if you give us 20 million in Bitcoin. Brian Armstrong pulled a full like Mel Gibson in the movie Ransom and said, I'm just going to actually offer that money to catch your ass instead of to, you know, but interestingly saying, they're going to reimburse impacted customers. I don't know if you guys have seen the reports, but not unique to Coinbase, but Coinbase customers have lost 40 or 60 million dollars a month right now in these phishing scams. I get them on my phone, 10 a day. Gemini. I don't, you know, like Gemini. Coinbase exchanges, I don't even have accounts at. Sometimes I get a text, it's like, you know, reset your 2fa, whatever. That's clearly coming from things like this, right where your data is leaked. They don't have your keys, they don't have your account information, but they have. If they have your address, your phone number, your name, they can socially engineer something that gets you to click a phishing link. I mean, Bill, you're a fiduciary. You have an obligation to customers of Abra. You have to be dealing with things like this. I'm impressed with the approach, but I think it's also a reminder that this can't be stopped.
Bill Barheit
Yeah, look, I have, I have my own big personal issues with Coinbase and how they run the business. And as a crypto company, they're doing a lot of anti crypto things. This is not one of them. This is a function of the BSA and the Bank Secrecy act and you know, the money transmission laws, which are effectively also more or less a function of the Bank Secrecy Act. And as long as we have artificial KYC requirements that make no sense, we will continue to have security breaches like this. And that is independent of whether it's a crypto company, a bank or I think, you know, Coinbase is obviously a well funded company with an enormous balance sheets and therefore they're, they're a nice target. That's why this is happening to them. But it has nothing to do with, you know, I have a lot of issues we can dig into with why I take coverage with, with how Coinbase is being run right now. And this isn't one of those issues. I, I think, you know, you put yourself in a no win situation as a CEO and he chose to fight back, which I'm okay with.
Scott Melker
Yeah. Iago, what do you think?
Yago
Well, I, I, look, I mean, practically speaking, I don't think there's very much you can do about this. Right. There's always, if you're, if you are holding customer information, right, which is the problem of any centralized, any regulated entity, that customer information is a honeypot and at some point is going to leak. And it doesn't matter if that's done through a hack or through people working, you know, offshore or because you've got an AI that's managing it, someone's going to manipulate the system. With regards to, you know, Coinbase, they're, they made an extremely interesting acquisition recently, which is purchase of their. And what they are doing, right, They've got the largest custody play by far in the US they now have the options play, they have the futures play, they have the spot market play. What they are doing, I think has been from a business perspective, extremely. They are cornering key aspects of the market with the goal to pull in primarily institutional players and keep them there. And so we have two players in the space, Binance and Coinbase, who each in their own way are working to build sort of monopoly type leverage in the exchange and custody space, leveraging the exchange to achieve that. And so more and more we're seeing a duopoly emerge. And so regardless of their behavior, that is unfortunately a big risk of the regulated custodial model that we have attached to crypto.
Scott Melker
But even so, we can all say self custody solves this or whatever, but almost everybody, especially if you're in the US at some point you're going to touch a regulated centralized exchange to get your money out, even if you're not using it all the time.
Bill Barheit
Yeah. Bank CEO just isn't going to go on Twitter and make a post about his response to some ransom demand. That's the difference. Right. So I'm okay with that. But you know, it's, it's, this is, this isn't a function of, this is a crypto company. This is a function of the fact that, you know, they have like every other financial institution fi, they have to collect this information, which is ridiculous. It's been ridiculous since the, you know, since the 90s.
Scott Melker
So true. Like why? I mean, this decentralization does solve this, right?
Yago
Yeah, no, this is one of those key things that decentralization was designed to solve.
Scott Melker
And that's what you're building, I mean, Iago in theory, right? What you're building with Bitcoin os, obviously the ability to, we've talked about ZK at extreme length last week, so we don't need to dive so deeply, but the ability to prove things that are proven by KYC and AML without giving all that data, but to still offer that simple proof solves literally all of us.
Yago
Yeah. So, you know, my career has been about trying to build tools which people can use, to use systems which, where they maintain sovereign right, building what we call decentralized systems. And one of the tools that we're building now allows people to go to coinbase, extract proofs of the information that they've provided to coinbase and then use that without revealing anything else to a decentralized exchange or a decentralized lending process. And the primary question here is, you know, yes, we have the technologies now and they keep getting better and better that give people sovereignty over their data, their assets, their digital lives. The key question is always going to be to what degree is the individual going to choose convenience over self sovereignty? And that convenience can also be sort of like the sense that I'm not responsible for my money. If, if it gets lost or if my data gets lost, then, you know, Brian Armstrong is at fault, not me. And that, that there, there Some people take comfort in that thought.
Scott Melker
Yeah, it's a huge problem. But Bill, I mean, you have, your, your customers have to do this, right?
Bill Barheit
I mean, everybody does. There's no exceptions. I mean, if you're, you know, either a money transmitter, wealth advisor, like we are a bank trust, makes no difference. You know, you, you know, you know, they've tried when it comes to software companies, which was, you know, part of the, the issue with the guys that were doing the mixing stuff to even get wallets to, to comply with, you know, bsa, which is, you know, to Yago's point, is ridiculous.
Scott Melker
Samurai wallet case is still up. I mean, that's my point.
Yago
Yes.
Bill Barheit
And, and so look, there's a rumor that the Trump administration is going after Dodd Franklin and then, and then maybe they'll open up the can of worms of the BSA after that. That would be amazing. It just seems like a big, big battle where you may have opposition on both sides of the political spectrum.
Scott Melker
Okay, another topic as we go. Bill, I don't know if you have a hard stop at 9:30. Can you push for another?
Bill Barheit
Give me a couple more. Yeah, I've got maybe 9:32 here.
Scott Melker
Yeah, okay, perfect. Because I want to ask you guys about the Etoro trading platform. EToro surges 29% after upsized US IPO. So this is really interesting to me. Really, really interesting because a, I guess I didn't. As much as I love Yoni, I love Etoro. I didn't realize how popular Etoro, I guess was. But the fact that this started at A$45 stock and that they were then able to raise at $62 and then it actually went up on the first day of trading and stayed there and closed I think at 67 a share. This is not something that happens anymore usually. First of all, we don't even get IPOs anymore because of Linacon and the last administration. But now that we are for one to be this popular, to oversubscribe and then to actually go up in the first days of trading should be a huge, huge green flag for all these crypto companies, including Galaxy, who could go public any day. This is a big news. This is a big deal that this happened to me.
Bill Barheit
Totally agree. Yeah, really happy for them. Yanni's friend. Like, you know, congrats to them. I think it's less known in here in the US and maybe I don't, I'm not sure about Canada, but, but historically, as I understand it, they offer CFDs, which, you know, Americans can't trade so, so, and those CFDs are basically akin to you know, offering futures in, in, in the, in the crypto, perpetuals in the, in the crypto markets with significant leverage. That's what contracts for difference enable. And, and so that type of speculation and gambling can, can obviously juice revenue and profits very quickly and, and so, but that's nothing new. Right? To your point, they've been doing this for quite a while and they've been at it for quite a while and they have this copy trade where you can basically copy other people's trades and basically like a lot of you can get leverage at the same time doing, doing the same thing which is a very, very cle clever models. So clearly it's worked for years. They've never been able to figure out the US because of these limitations on, on CFDs. But maybe, you know, with the coming rules on perpetuals they can do something similar here. But yeah, I mean it's definitely a nice green flag for, for the crypto markets. And the timing was perfect. Right. I mean with, you know, I, I don't know if they're announcing holding bitcoin as well in their balance sheet but, but you know, I clearly the public markets are, are warming up to crypto.
Yago
Yeah, I'll just say, you know, Yoni's been grinding at this Same company for 16 years now. I think maybe more. He's a bitcoin permeable. He's taken Etoro money and directed it towards development in bitcoin in particular and crypto more generally. And he's been an excellent player in the space. One of the great sort of happy ironies of this is Etoro tried to go public last cycle when the, the specs were, were going and, and they missed out. So basically after Chamath Palapatia sort of reamed the spec market, they had to drop their spec and so they represented sort of like the closing of the window of opportunity last cycle and this cycle represents opening the window of opportunity and so I think they're going to be, you know, the example that is going to drive a huge amount of M and A and public listings in the crypto space going forward.
Scott Melker
100% agree by the way. Bill, I'm letting you go right now, but there's a question, does anyone have thoughts experience with Coinbase's bitcoin backed loans? I can tell you guys I have experience with Abra's bitcoin backed loans and it's a tremendous, incredible product. So if that is something you're interested in, I have no idea about Coinbase, but I implicitly trust Bill. His team's incredible. They're actually as a CC registered ria, so if that's something you're considering. Not to shill, but your guy is right here, so check him out below. Bill, thank you. I know you got a RIA convention to go to. We do.
Bill Barheit
We're the little one. But a bunch of CEOs I'm meeting with today, so. Should be fun.
Scott Melker
The little ones that matter, buddy. All right. Iago, can you stay for a couple of minutes?
Yago
I can stay for a couple of minutes. Thanks, Bill.
Bill Barheit
Go.
Scott Melker
Awesome. Cause like, while we're chilling things, which we literally never do and you never bother to, I mean, we talk about bitcoin OS and what it's doing, but you guys are really launching. This is real. I happened to just bring up your website. You didn't know I was going to do this, so sorry in advance. But you guys have a pre sale. We never talk about those things here. But you're literally here every single week with me. I'm passionately supporting you. So maybe you could just give us the quick tldr on what's happening with bitcoin os.
Yago
Yeah, so what we're, we're gearing up as we've been launching more and more parts of BUS on Mainnet, we need to give people access to tokens and so we've, we're doing it in two different ways. We have sort of like community driven gamified activity which is an airdrop and we have a more straightforward approach which is the, this pre sale which will give you access before anyone else to the tokens. And we've seen, I think everyone I've been telling you about how this has been going is sort of, their jaw has dropped. We've been seeing so much demand, there's so much enthusiasm. It's perfect timing being an early participant in Boss.
Scott Melker
I, I. Yeah, you're like the etoro, you're like the etoro of public markets here. I mean there's fine. This is finally a good window to do something like this. It's maybe by luck, but it's really impacting.
Yago
I mean it's, it's only partly by luck. We, we, this isn't our first rodeo and we, we, we've been, you know, trying to make sure that we do this at a time.
Bill Barheit
When.
Yago
You know, the market is ready and users are ready. But yeah, so this is, this is ongoing. You can, you can, you can go and, and participate now. We're giving people who Participate earlier, bigger and bigger discounts. So you know, the earlier you participate, the bigger the discount that you get. And this will give you access, early access to the boss platform, the boss tokens that you can use the platform. And something that we will announce at the end of the month is one other thing that we're going to do which I think is going to be super exciting. And the first time that anyone, any person.
Scott Melker
Can't you just announce it today here? I mean, we're all here.
Yago
I can't because that will. The rest of my team will get very angry at me. But I think it's, you know, come, come to. If you're going to be a bitcoin Vegas, come to our booth, get a drink and a special prize.
Scott Melker
Oh, everywhere, dude. Like Vegas. God damn it. I've been trying every excuse to get out of it. I non committal, but it's in like a week. That's my usual thing. It's like maybe in nine days. The arch public guys are doing a bunch of stuff and they're really compelling me to come and look.
Yago
I mean there's, there's a secret to Vegas.
Scott Melker
I think you gotta go. I just gotta like. I can't do Vegas for more than like 36 hours. So I gotta time it right. Yeah.
Yago
I mean the rule is never be sober in Vegas because if you, if you ever see Vegas sober, it's terrible.
Scott Melker
Yeah, you can also can't sleep in Vegas, which is kind of the problem. But you know, whatever. I guess it's the right place for something like this. So guys, this is@bitcoin OS build. I saw people asking and since we weren't planning it, it's not in the description. We'll go back and add it later. But. And when is this open till, by the way? Like what's the timeline?
Yago
At least until Vegas.
Bill Barheit
Okay.
Scott Melker
At least until Vegas. I like that. So we got about a week and a half, 12 more days. Awesome. Anything else worth adding before I let you jump?
Yago
I mean, probably a lot, but we're not going to cover it in the next minute, so we'll have to cover it next week.
Scott Melker
Funny how that works. Yeah. See you next week, guys. Thank you so much. I'll be back obviously tomorrow for the Friday 5. Thanks Yaga. So really excited for you guys here. I think it's gonna go exceptionally well.
Yago
All right, awesome. Cheers, Scott.
Scott Melker
Bye guys. Let's go. Let's do.
Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets Episode: Bitcoin Bull Run On Steroids - Here Is Why BTC Is Poised To Erupt Release Date: May 15, 2025
In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker delves deep into the factors that suggest a monumental Bitcoin bull run is imminent. Joined by Bill Barheit and Yago, the discussion centers around why Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for significant growth, surpassing previous bull runs in scale and impact.
Bill Barheit initiates the conversation by presenting his thesis on the forthcoming Bitcoin surge, attributing it primarily to unprecedented government liquidity measures.
"My thesis is based upon the confluence of a whole bunch of things. But the most important piece of this confluence is, is basically government liquidity." [01:19]
Bill highlights that the current environment is characterized by substantial money printing, with the U.S. debt nearing $7-7.5 trillion needing refinancing at higher rates. This scenario creates a fertile ground for Bitcoin to act as a "sponge for that liquidity," absorbing the excess funds and driving its price upward.
Bill refers to the concept of "liquidity super regimes," patterns that have historically coincided with Bitcoin halving cycles, albeit delayed by several months in the current cycle.
"It just so happens that these liquidity super regimes... coincide with the halving cycle." [02:10]
He notes that despite minor fluctuations in Bitcoin's dominance, the overarching trend remains bullish. The increased government liquidity, combined with favorable regulatory sentiments and institutional interest, sets the stage for an explosive bull run.
The discussion emphasizes Bitcoin's growing role in the financial ecosystem, particularly as a vehicle for absorbing excess liquidity injected by governments.
"I expect to see crypto act like a sponge for that liquidity." [02:50]
Bill asserts that Bitcoin's market capitalization, now over $1 trillion, makes it resilient against price manipulation by individual entities. While miners continue to sell some Bitcoin, the influx of new investments is expected to outweigh these pressures, pushing Bitcoin’s price higher.
Scott Melker and Bill Barheit analyze Bitcoin's market dominance and its volatility trends. Currently at 62.85% dominance, Bitcoin has shown resilience against claims of topping its dominance.
"The real alt run in the second half of this year really hasn't started yet." [03:50]
Bill explains that as Bitcoin's market cap grows, its volatility tends to decrease. The introduction of more sophisticated trading instruments like options further stabilizes Bitcoin's price movements.
"The broad-based adoption is squeezing the volatility of Bitcoin from cycle to cycle." [07:05]
Yago adds that the participation of more sophisticated investors, who employ hedged positions, contributes to reduced volatility and sustained demand for Bitcoin.
"We're also seeing more sophisticated players able to participate which means far more hedged positions." [08:11]
This influx of institutional money not only supports Bitcoin’s price but also enhances its legitimacy as a major asset class.
The conversation shifts to MicroStrategy, a company known for its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy. Despite skepticism, Bill Barheit critiques the sustainability of strategies that involve leveraging debt to buy Bitcoin.
"MicroStrategy has created a perpetual motion machine that keeps squeezing that arbout to buy more shares and keep going over and over again." [13:16]
There’s a nuanced debate on whether such strategies can continue to add value or if they pose significant risks should market conditions change abruptly.
A pivotal segment addresses recent security breaches at Coinbase, where hackers sought a $20 million ransom by compromising customer service agents.
"Coinbase customers have lost 40 or 60 million dollars a month right now in these phishing scams." [18:05]
Bill Barheit criticizes centralized exchanges for their vulnerability due to stringent KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements, which make them attractive targets for cybercriminals.
"As long as we have artificial KYC requirements that make no sense, we will continue to have security breaches like this." [19:14]
Yago underscores the importance of decentralized systems in mitigating such risks, advocating for self-custody solutions to enhance security and personal sovereignty.
The episode highlights eToro's remarkable 29% surge following its U.S. IPO, a significant milestone for crypto-related public companies.
"This should be a huge green flag for all these crypto companies, including Galaxy, who could go public any day." [25:37]
Bill Barheit points out that eToro's success reflects increasing public market acceptance of crypto businesses, potentially paving the way for more Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the sector.
In an engaging segment, Yago introduces Bitcoin OS, a decentralized platform aiming to empower users with sovereign control over their data and assets.
"We're building what we call decentralized systems... where they maintain sovereign right." [23:15]
The pre-sale offers early access to tokens through community-driven activities and straightforward sales, with substantial discounts for early participants. This initiative aligns with the broader theme of enhancing decentralization and user autonomy in the crypto ecosystem.
The episode concludes with an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, driven by robust government liquidity measures, growing institutional adoption, and advancements in decentralized technologies. The hosts and guests agree that while challenges like security breaches remain, the fundamental strengths of Bitcoin and the crypto market position it for an unprecedented bull run.
Scott Melker wraps up by encouraging listeners to stay informed and participate in emerging projects like Bitcoin OS, which further the movement toward financial sovereignty and decentralization.
Notable Quotes:
Bill Barheit [01:19]: "There's a simple yet game-changing truth about bitcoin that many ignore."
Bill Barheit [02:50]: "I expect to see crypto act like a sponge for that liquidity."
Bill Barheit [07:05]: "The broad-based adoption is squeezing the volatility of Bitcoin from cycle to cycle."
Bill Barheit [13:16]: "MicroStrategy has created a perpetual motion machine that keeps squeezing that arbout to buy more shares and keep going over and over again."
Bill Barheit [19:14]: "As long as we have artificial KYC requirements that make no sense, we will continue to have security breaches like this."
Yago [23:15]: "We're building what we call decentralized systems... where they maintain sovereign right."
This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors propelling Bitcoin towards a significant bull run, blending expert insights with real-world examples and forward-looking statements. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the crypto space, the discussions offer valuable perspectives on the evolving landscape of digital assets.