← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin Chaos & Insane Swings – Where Is Crypto Headed Next?!
00:48:51
Bitcoin Chaos & Insane Swings – Where Is Crypto Headed Next?!
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Of course, I'm describing bitcoin and crypto price action. Over the past four days we've had some of literally the best and worst days in the history of bitcoin back to back to back, going as high as 95 or 96,000, all the way back down into the low 80,000 after visiting 78,000 and 92,000. What is going on? The reality in my mind is that President Trump now controls the price action of this market and everything else. But there are obviously other major factors contributing. And when there's other major factors contributing, we call in Noel Atchison to help us unpack all of it. Of course, Christopher Inks on the back end with some charts. It's going to be a great show today, guys. Let's go, let's go. Let's do what is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Hit that like button and check out aptos and we'll tell you a little more about later, of course. But right now we need to talk about the market. Bitcoin trading right back here at 89,457was up to around 91,000 this morning I go to bed, it's 80, I wake up, it's 90. Or vice versa on any given day. Been here a long time, Noel. This is some pretty wild volatility even for crypto right now.
- [01:40]
Noel Atchison
Well, the narrative is flip flopping so much. We've got the, you know, we've got the crypto reserves, then we've got the macro uncertainty and then we've got the regulation softening and then we've got the tariff. It's, you know, I'm a firm believer, Scott, in humans ability to adapt, it is what has enabled us to survive over the millennia. We can adapt to anything, but adapting so fast to things changing so fast is utterly exhausting. I don't know about you.
- [02:08]
Scott Melker
Yeah, the things that haven't really adapted is the altcoin market. Right. So I mean, obviously we have our big bumps and we've had winners here and there, but it's been pretty much just sustained pain in the altcoin world for years at this point. Honestly, like I said, there's been some winners of course, but across the board it's been pretty ugly. And I think that's largely because of how fast this news cycle is happening. There's Never enough time to absorb any bullishness before something else happens.
- [02:38]
Noel Atchison
Yeah. And the you move to the safe in big old air quotes there, the safe assets of bitcoin eth and the other higher cap ones. Because in the end, when you want to be able to get out, you want to know you can get out pretty fast. That's what we're seeing with the uncertainty. The bitcoin dominance metric is something I keep an eye on because it is very reflective of where we are far in the cycle and it's just been climbing, which means that this cycle is just getting started. Uncertainty is still way too high to start heading further out in the risk curve.
- [03:07]
Scott Melker
Absolutely. And clearly the focus is on bitcoin across the board. Right. We've had the Meme Coin Casino doing what the Meme Coin Casino does, but there hasn't been much trickle down beyond the institutional involvement in bitcoin. And if people are wondering why we jumped above 90,000 probably today, well, it's this news. Howard Lutnick this morning saying bitcoin is going to have a massive Trump reserve plan specific to bitcoin that will be announced at the crypto roundtable at the White House on Friday. This was some pretty eye opening stuff because we just had Trump on Truth Social on Sunday saying xrp, Cardano, Solana, oh, and by the way, also bitcoin and Ethereum. But luck now kind of going back the other way, probably because of all the pushback from donors and bitcoin maximalists, but basically saying, here's his quote. So bitcoin is one thing and then the other currencies, the other crypto tokens I think will be treated differently. Positively, but differently. So what does that even mean, strategic Bitcoin reserve again?
- [04:11]
Noel Atchison
I mean, what does that even mean? Positively but differently? I'm going to go out on a limb here and with huge respect to Commerce Secretary Lutnick, I, I don't think he gets to decide this. And I'm also doubting that at this stage he's speaking for the entire presidential working group on this. So again, what does that even mean? Differently, but the same, the strategic, any kind of strategic reserve, if it involves spending federal funds, will have to go through Congress. So even if the working group gets consensus, which we all know is going to be pretty unlikely, even then trying to get Congress to agree is going to be a whole different issue. That said, you know, welcome news for bitcoin is obviously welcome news for bitcoin. But what is significant is the shift after President Trump's truth Social post on Sunday, which was weird. And the fact that it didn't mention Bitcoin and he strongly suggests that it wasn't run by anyone before he put it out there. I was fully expecting to see David Sachs walk it back on Monday. No, he came out and toe the line on Sunday saying, yes, we're definitely going to be looking at this, but I think it's significant that we haven't seen confirmation of acceptance of the invitation to the Crypto Summit on Friday from either Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse or Cardano co founder Charles Hoskinson. Maybe. Maybe they haven't been invited or maybe we just. It's early, it's only Wednesday. Right. So again, time means nothing. I have no idea. Exactly. Maybe it's coming, but it's strange that we haven't heard of anything. If so, that would be a pretty masterful stroke from David Sachs, not contradicting his boss in public, but subliminally or subtly messaging that this was not an approved message.
- [05:55]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I haven't even dug into the guest list as far as you have, obviously, but those are notably missing. We have Brian Armstrong's of the world, quite a few VCs, people from major exchanges. I even saw CZ on the list, which I have not confirmed but found a bit surprising.
- [06:13]
Noel Atchison
But yeah, I haven't seen that one. I haven't seen that. But there were some surprising and I think a very encouraging array of participants. You have founders of, you know, wallets that are not exactly high profile necessarily. You also do. Yeah, you also do have some of the big exchanges, as you say, you've got some of the investors. It looks encouraging so far, but, you know, a couple of names are missing.
- [06:37]
Scott Melker
Yeah. So since we are on Lutnick at the moment, he was making a lot of comments this morning and obviously being in commerce, he is the tariff guy. Right. So either he deeply believes in these things or he's also toeing the line for what Trump says. But it seems they're all over the map right now with the tariffs. Right. We were on and off. We were on with Canada and Mexico. We were off with Canada and Mexico. We were back on now this morning, walking back, some of it, saying there could be some, some concessions, looking for some areas where they may have exemptions for Canada as Canada pushes back very hard. I don't know if people saw the videos of them taking a billion dollars worth of American bourbon off the shelves in Ontario.
- [07:14]
Noel Atchison
They've already imported. I mean, that they've already imported. What are they going to do with it. Send it back.
- [07:19]
Scott Melker
Yeah, exactly. But, you know, either way, Canada definitely, at least in some areas, playing tough and saying that this will turn into a trade war. I mean, what do you make of all the tariff uncertainty right now?
- [07:31]
Noel Atchison
It already is a trade war, and arguably it's a very, very bad trade war. It's a trade war because this one is broad. The last round of tariffs in Trump, one administration that was steep and harsh, but targeted. This is broad, which leaves even allies uncertain as to what they can count on. And this is after the great globalization push of, you know, offshoring and then friends shoring. Do you remember how everyone not that long ago was suddenly, you know, not importing from China. They're building factories in Mexico. To import from Mexico on that strategy, obviously, is no longer valid. It. It's bad. I mean, let's face it, a tariff war is going to hurt pretty much everyone. And even Trump acknowledged this yesterday in his speech, although he didn't acknowledge it was going to be bad. He did say there was going to be some pain. It's not going to be too bad. We can handle it. But for him to even acknowledge that, I thought was really, really notable. Yeah, we're in a full war. We have retaliation now from Canada. We have taliation from China. Retaliation from Mexico is due on Sunday. And then on April 2, according to what Trump confirmed last night, more tariffs kick in, according to the reciprocal report that he's getting on April 1st. And of course, I'm speaking to you from Europe. We're, we're just waiting.
- [08:43]
Scott Melker
As a tequila drinker, as someone said in the comments as well, and someone who likes maple syrup, it's hard for me to get behind these tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but it does seem like, to be honest, they're trying to get to free trade and reciprocal tariff agreements. And if that's where we land, do you think that that would be reasonable?
- [09:03]
Noel Atchison
Reciprocal tariffs are not reason. I don't think tariffs at this level are going to be reasonable, period. It is very much shock therapy. And I'm very sympathetic to the notion that the global economic imbalances need to be redressed. And frankly, I think we can also acknowledge that President Trump is probably the only president with the mandate to do that in recent history and possibly future in coming years as well. So it needs to be done, but the effects are very, very uncertain. We don't have to go back too far in history to realize that when you really squeeze allies, bad things happen geopolitically. And this is at a Time when we are in a multipolar world anyway. So no, tariffs are not good, although obviously the imbalances need to be redressed. And the political fallout is what I'm most nervous about.
- [09:54]
Scott Melker
I don't know how much we value or weigh the opinions of the imf, but here from Georgieva, trade no longer driving growth as in past, basically making the points that that has been the main driver obviously of globalism and global economic growth has obviously been trade between nations and that the current policies obviously are bringing an end to that. Everybody's having to react all over the world. Doesn't this mean that we should get significant economic contraction worldwide?
- [10:26]
Noel Atchison
In theory, yes, as the adjustment rickles through the system. But when you get contractions, especially in democracies, unexpected things happen. And that's sort of what I mean when I say I'm really worried about the political fallout. Polarization is the norm now at ballot boxes across the developed. Across developed economies. And in developing economies, entirely different situation. They're choosing their alliances and they're obviously going to be forced to choose more extreme options going forward. And do you remember early this Dec, early this century, we were assured that trade would eliminate war because you don't go to war with trading partners. We were going to be heading into a world of future, an unlimited future of peace and prosperity. Well, that didn't work out. Trade doesn't necessarily eliminate war, as we have seen, but not trade. Lack of trade certainly doesn't eliminate it either. And that's another concern that we really should start to get our heads around. And all of this leads into the uncertainty narrative, which is one of the things feeding into the volatility that you talked about just a few minutes ago, Scott. The uncertainty breeds volatility, but it also breeds flight into safe havens. And that's another narrative buffeting the crypto markets as well as traditional markets today.
- [11:44]
Scott Melker
Well, it certainly has helped gold, right?
- [11:46]
Noel Atchison
It certainly helped gold.
- [11:48]
Scott Melker
Let's talk about the debate here. We had the Dave Weisberger versus Mike McGlone which would outperform in a year. And it was about a year ago. Mike obviously said gold and Dave said bitcoin. And we're trying to find the exact date to even see who won because it's been that close. Gold has performed exceptionally well so far this year.
- [12:07]
Noel Atchison
It has outperformed. Obviously it's going to be come down to the dates because we're going back to last March. Right? Well, obviously things are very different last March, but yeah, so far Gold has outperformed bitcoin this year, which is extraordinary. I remember on Monday when, you know, things were all over the place and yesterday as well, looking at my screen and the only numbers that weren't in red were, get this, German stock exchange because of defense spending, gold and the vix. And that's a pretty bleak scenario right there. Yeah.
- [12:37]
Scott Melker
I want to talk about Germany more because we have this situation obviously. It seems to be obviously reactionary to the United States backing out of a commitment to fund Ukraine. Right. And the war in Ukraine. And then obviously Germany saying, well, we need to step up, this is on our borders and we're going to have to do the job ourselves. But effectively a massive stimulus package likely coming out of Germany right now to rebuild that infrastructure and the military. Talking about hundreds and hundreds of billions of euros. I have to find the exact number. I know I had it and my brain is not working there. 500 billion infrastructure fund to invest in priorities such as transportation, energy grids and housing over 10 years. And that's not even on the military side. I mean, this is massive stimulus.
- [13:19]
Noel Atchison
Yes. I think it's the best thing that could have happened to Germany. I think the announcement on Monday was shocking. It was. And as, as a European upsetting for all of us. We want the war to end, but to totally hang Ukraine out to dry like that. We can, we can understand something needed to move and this is definitely going to move the needle. Still, it was a very shocking move. Now Europe has scrambled, as Europe tends to do. It doesn't. It's not very good at planning, it's very good at scrambling. Yes, exactly. 800 billion euros of stimulus, of loans coming from Europe that are over the next four years, that we're going to somehow help Ukraine defend itself. It's just ludicrous. It really is. No way are they going to get the 800 because most of that is discretionary, according to the member states. And they don't necessarily want to raise their debt relative to gdp, which is going to be hit any house with tariffs coming through. So it's Europe again, promising a lot, delivering little. But Germany is a different situation. I think Germany could do that. Germany needs to do this. Germany has been handcuffed by its debt break. It has had strict limits on what it can spend. And the fact that they are now acknowledging they need to lift that is a huge political, I'll say coup, because it's a very, very big deal for the German psyche. They don't like the idea of debt. They just don't.
- [14:38]
Scott Melker
Whereas now they are lifetime Policy of how to handle, you know, fiscal responsibility. It's almost as big as Japan all of a sudden having inflation.
- [14:50]
Noel Atchison
Huge. Huge. And not just fiscal responsibility, Scott. That is a very big part of it. Because I don't know if you've been to Germany recently. I haven't, but I know people who have and they say it's falling to pieces. It really is. The train stations, the highways, they literally are collapsing. And Germany can't spend because they've got so many other big commitments. But Germany has been terrified of military spending for historical reasons. For obvious reasons, they've been terrified of it. And the fact that they are now acknowledged that they need to step up their NATO commitments as well as they need to step up border security and they need to somehow figure out how they need to make weapons to send to Ukraine. Not only that, they need to get the transport that can take the weapons to Ukraine. They don't even have that. So it's, it's, it's the best thing that could have happened to Germany. It doesn't mean it's not going to be shockingly painful though, as resources are allocated elsewhere and as the whole political apparatus shifts its psyche. And this is at a time when the far right AfD party is gaining in popularity and the upcoming hardships because of shifts in spending. And there will be, let's face it, that's probably going to even further exacerbate the polarization that we've been seeing in the polls, especially among younger voter. That said, stimulus short term is good news for Germany, hopefully good news for Europe if you think they can get it through the pipelines in time.
- [16:10]
Scott Melker
Is this a reallocation of resources from somewhere else or can we assume that this is effectively money printing?
- [16:18]
Noel Atchison
Both. It's going to be both.
- [16:21]
Scott Melker
So there will be a bit of austerity in there for other areas that will be reallocated to military and infrastructure. But clearly they're going to have to sell some bonds, do something. It's interesting because obviously they're on the euro, so can an individual nation. I've never really. We always talk about the Fed and the United States. Money printer. I've never really done a deep dive on how that would happen in euro with multiple nations involved.
- [16:47]
Noel Atchison
You've hit the nail on the head. That's one of the reasons why Europe is very much stuck, Scott. We don't even have common capital markets yet, so Europe can't really issue bonds. I mean, it has done so in the past once after the pandemic and an emergency situation. It's talking about doing so again to help out Ukraine and also to help out European defense spending more broadly. But one, there isn't agreement on what that would look like. Two, Germany has no interest in helping out Greece with its debt requirements. And three, it's even. Were they. Even if they were to get that capital markets union first steps going, we don't have banking union. So it's, it's crazy. It's po. And what I'm concerned about. And this comes back to my refer. My referring. The political. Referring to the political uncertain, the political fallout from the tariff uncertainty, and that is this. Europe is unity is hanging by a thread that may be a slight exaggeration for now, but I'm pretty confident that two, three years from now it won't be much of an exaggeration. The AfD campaigned on taking Germany out of the union. Can you imagine what would happen to the union if that happens? Other support for leaving the union is climbing in other countries as well, including the one that I live in, which is Spain. And Hungary has flat out allied itself. Hungary as an EU member, it has flat out allied itself with Russia and will shoot down any vote that requires consensus on sending aid to Ukraine. So it's stuck. It's really stuck.
- [18:25]
Scott Melker
And we have these concerns with obviously trade reductions of a contraction. While we obviously have for better or for worse, I think for better we have DOGE in the United States. It's very hard to honestly parse how much they've cut based on the numbers I've been trying to dig into. But obviously that is a form of austerity by a different name. Right. Which could contribute to a contraction in the United States. We also just got some job numbers today. I don't know if you saw this, but private jobs report missed pretty big 77k in February, far below the 140k expected. So this could be signs of a cooling labor market, as Andre from Bitwise happened to comment. Right. Under government payrolls are also contracting, which is not even announced as a part of this. Lutnick saying this is Biden. It's just, you know, but, but clearly we have a lot of signs that we could be heading either towards recession or some sort of contraction in the short term. Maybe that's actually what they want. Just rip the band aid off very quickly. I mean, even balancing the budget at this point. I sort of quipped about this on Twitter, but instead if we balance the budget rates come smashing down. Well, yeah, it's because we're going into a recession.
- [19:41]
Noel Atchison
That's a very good comment. I love it. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And that highlights the, I guess dichotomy or the contradiction that we're seeing in the markets Now. We know inflation expectations are unanchored. We're seeing stickiness if not outright increases. The input price index that we saw on, I think it was Monday's ISM manufacturing data drop, it's rates, you know, the highest since mid-22, which when we were in full rate hikes, they were just getting going in mid 22. So inflationary pressures are there and this is even before taking into account what tariffs are going to do to the various indices. Now if that indeed were the case, would you not see long term or would you not see bond yields climbing? Because surely that means Fed funds are going to be hiking again. We're not seeing that. We're seeing bond yields dropping. Now this is in my opinion very much down due to the growth concerns that you just talked about. It could also be down to expectations of some deficit reduction and therefore less bond issuance coming through the pipeline. There's probably a mix of both in there. But I think the growth concerns are front and foremost now and I think we are going to see quite a shock on Friday. That's my opinion. Obviously I'm going to see a shock on Friday because the hundred thousand of job reductions so far is the latest figure that I've seen. I don't know how accurate that is, but that's what I saw just the other day. That isn't necessarily going to feed through to the jobs reports just yet because the jobs reports are backwards looking. The job reductions have a couple of months of severance, etc. Etc. So they're not going to be, they're not going to be collecting unemployment benefits just yet. But what is going to be seen in Friday's figure is the federal funding, the federal hiring freeze and the government has been accounting for most of the jobs increases in previous reports. So I think there's probably going to be some undershooting there because I would expect that the forecasts do include the usual dollop of government jobs. Government hiring.
- [21:47]
Scott Melker
Yeah. With a few minutes left, I want to refocus on crypto. It's sort of become the age old question of many weeks. It used to be that age old questions were years, but now we look at things in days and weeks in the crypto market. But we have definitive tailwinds for bitcoin certainly and for the industry as a whole. We've talked it to death. Right. Likely legislation, deregulation clearly very pro crypto people in very important positions of power, but all in the face of this insane macro that you just described. So when we ask where is crypto headed next? How do we weigh which one of those is going to be a more important factor moving forward in a vacuum? Bitcoin should absolutely be flying the announcement. Real talk of strategic reserves after we saw that as a campaign promise. I would have thought originally if Trump hadn't of truthed his way into adding XRP and Cardano and all of these, if he had said the words Bitcoin strategic reserve as the actual president, that we would have been at 150 in a week possibly.
- [22:53]
Noel Atchison
But I do think there is widespread skepticism that this would get through Congress. Now there are ways that it could go around Congress I'm guessing, but that would not be a long term measure. That would be by its very nature a short term measure which I don't think any of us would want. I don't think anybody would want that for, not for the government and also for the bitcoin, for the crypto markets more broadly now, the tailwinds versus the headwinds. I am so glad I'm not a trader. My heart goes out to all of you traders out there because this is not just catching falling knives, this is catching knives flying all over the place. And it's, I think the macro is going to weigh heavy for a while. We got some bad news coming. We are heading into slowing growth. I was looking, I was writing this morning about the GDP now models predicting a contraction Q1 of 2.8% as a contraction.
- [23:47]
Scott Melker
Atlanta Fed was like minus 1.5% and it was supposed to be plus 3 or something.
- [23:52]
Noel Atchison
So the swing, yeah it, it dropped from a positive 2.3 down to boom minus 1.5 and then the very next workday boom down to 2.8 contraction. It's now 2.8 contraction. Now it'll probably bounce back because a lot of that is to do with the net imports and a lot of that is to do with construction spending coming down. A lot of that is to do with very other some of the other data that we've had since then. It's probably going to bounce back because a lot of that is to do with tariff uncertainty. You bring forward your purchases if you know prices are going to go up. Right. But still ouch. And I think that is going to be going to be encouraging the risk off mood that we are seeing. However, sellers are eventually going to get exhausted and with an asset with a Finite supply that trades 24, 7, 365. And that does have another narrative to buoy demand. That's when things will start to move. When that will happen, nobody knows, because it really does depend on sellers getting exhausted.
- [24:47]
Scott Melker
What's amazing about crypto, though, is that we can actually see what's happening on the blockchain. And when we had that announcement on Sunday, billions in bitcoin, ethereum, XRP flowed to exchanges after Trump's reserve plan. So very clearly right now, obviously, if people are sending billions of dollars to an exchange, generally, the intention is to sell. Right. And that's. We saw literally the biggest move in history, I think, up almost on Sunday, one of across the board and then the second worst day on Monday. And that only happens because there's still people who are really excited to sell massively into pumps right now.
- [25:20]
Noel Atchison
Yeah. And seriously. And all we now need is for an announcement of no tax on capital gains from crypto. And that could bring some more selling.
- [25:28]
Scott Melker
Into the market, which is funny because you think it would bring a lot more buying into the market. And again, we're waiting a year to be selling into the market.
- [25:36]
Noel Atchison
Yeah. Who knows?
- [25:39]
Scott Melker
Listen, I mean, it makes my job fun because we have a lot to talk about all the time, but not boring.
- [25:45]
Noel Atchison
How does it.
- [25:46]
Scott Melker
The whiplash is not helping any.
- [25:48]
Noel Atchison
Don't you sometimes find yourself longing for just a little bit of boredom?
- [25:53]
Scott Melker
I remember when we were bored and we were longing for excitement. There has to be a happy medium. So anything else on your radar before I let you go? I mean, I think that zoomed out bitcoin will continue to do exceptionally well because of those tailwinds. But I do feel like there's a band aid ripping happening here with markets in general, and so you have to just be cautious. I do think bitcoin could also, by the way, detach from that. I don't think that that means bitcoin goes down, but it's just so much.
- [26:20]
Noel Atchison
Totally agree. Bitcoin will detach at one stage. There's actually no way of knowing when that is. Again, it depends on overall sentiment. And when it comes to the overall uncertainty out in macro markets, again, there's a sort of fine balance here. We've got bad news coming through, slowing growth and through the trade war. But then again, the trade war could turn out to be something different. We could have President Trump change his mind on some things. And let's face it, Scott, the end of the war in Ukraine is going to be good news. There is going to be a Peace dividend, even if it leaves a bad taste in our mouth and that we don't know when that's going to happen, but we can assume it is going to happen within the next few months at the latest.
- [26:55]
Scott Melker
Well, I can't believe we just plowed through 30 minutes. It felt like about three minutes.
- [27:01]
Noel Atchison
So, yes, thank you for all that.
- [27:03]
Scott Melker
So much to talk about, but it's amazing. I'm sure we'll have you back on a Monday very soon as well, since people seem to like you so much more than me when you host Macro Money, to be honest.
- [27:13]
Noel Atchison
Always fun talking to you, Scott.
- [27:15]
Scott Melker
Thank you so much. Really appreciate it. All right, everybody, well, you should go give Noelle. I should have said this while she was on, but obviously go give her a follow on X. Her account is right down in the description. And of course, right before we get to Chris, which I didn't get to do last week, I feel very bad I had to cancel on him for I think, a Yahoo Finance appearance. Obviously you know that Wednesdays here are sponsored by aptos. I had an incredible conversation not long ago with Avery Ching, who is the CEO, which is worth revisiting. Just wanted to show you a tweet from him on some of the fundamentals that are happening. And this is, I think, just indicative of the conversation we just had. There is going to be a time in my mind, just speaking of the market in general, when people start to care about fundamentals and utility again and not just about memes and presidents. I'm hoping and praying. And a lot of these blockchains and Aptos in particular are growing exceptionally fast. I mean, they now have the top three stablecoins, Tether, usdc, Athena was just added. That was big news. I don't know if you saw that, but has now landed on Aptos. As you can see here, they have over 130 million in stable coins on Aptos already. Incredible for a new change. I mean, cheapest transaction Fees, Fastest Blockchain, BlackRock and others issuing assets here, tokenization, real world assets, all coming to these chains. The problem is that right now we're just not talking about any of it because Donald Trump controls the crypto market and every single tweet, Truth X, whatever we call them, seems to sway things. I'm still highly confident for Aptos and otherwise that we're going to get back to caring deeply about fundamentals and what's being built and how fast and cheap and secure those things can be and truly believe that there'll be a winner in that. So Check out everything Aptos has obviously right down in the description linked as well. And you should follow average Avery. He's awesome. Avery Ching at Avery Ching. And go ahead and bring on Chris. Dude, what is happening? You know, 12,000 up, 12,000 down. All in a day's work.
- [29:18]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, I mean, you know the, the rally was not surprising. That kind of hit the level that you know, I posted there on X and something I'd been talking about with our students over the academy earlier in the previous week, you know, right there around the, the pivot it and so you know, and right there basically around mid range of the daily fair value gap. So I mean it was not surprising where it went down but you know the, the sell off following the next day was a bit more surprising. But we didn't actually, you know, I always talk about there's levels we have to get through to get some confirmation and we didn't actually get that stopped right before it and we got that pullback and then everybody's like, oh, it's going to go down and then yesterday pop right back up, you know, and so really just kind of range bound locally and, and really just part of the overall structure with that drop down. But before we jump on that, let's, let's look at the, the DXY here real quick. This is something I've been talking about for a while and, and the reality is, you know, everybody talk about liquidity and there are multiple ways to get liquidity. One of the ways is if the, if the dollar loses value against other currencies that creates liquidity. And so you know, this is something I've been talking about for a while here, which is this large picture, this idea that we've got at the very least an A and a B as a, A flat here and then we'll have C coming down into the low 90s at least. Now this could be a 1, a 2, you know, then 3, 4, 5 of an ABC and that leads us down into the 70s even. But nonetheless huge moves down here, you know, from, from that move up. Right now the weekly is breaking down through that, you know, again I call it the weekly pivot, but it's the yearly pivot. It shows up on the weekly and monthly time frames. That 105.51. So we're getting that big push down through it locally. It looks like it's a 1, 2, 3, 4 and a fifth wave here. So probably going to gain a bounce here, you know, sometime this week, maybe next week and get some movement up. But overall that top looks in, it looks like we are going to continue down through a hundred, down into the 90s. So you know, the dollar versus other currency is going to go down there. And so that's kind of what we're looking at. So we're kind of following through with exactly what, what I've been looking for, which is great. But again, Bitcoin, you know, we have the, again the pivot right here at 80,000, 92 and 63 cents here on the Bitcoin all time index. You know, this is the daily fair value gap here. You can see we popped just on the discount side of it right past the, the EQ of it right back up. And then there was the surprise was that move down and then yesterday again moved back up. And we can look at volume and volume over the three days is pretty similar. It depends on what exchange you're looking at. But on the index here, volume continues to expand as, as we're moving through this, which tells you, you know, again, we had more supply than we wanted to see up here. But that's been soaked up on this move down. The question is, is that enough to kind of get it out of the way so price can advance? And that's what we're looking at. So big picture wise, you know, we're sitting here right now above the pivot here on the daily time frame, that 88, 488 area. But we really, at this point we really need a breakout above 95, 150 cents because this is three waves up, which is corrective. So generally speaking, defaults, we should be looking for it to come down lower. But if it does break out higher, it's possible we can get, you know, a W, X, Y here or even a diagonal. So this ABC becomes one. There's your two, you have ABC3 and you have four. You have ABC5 heading up here as an ascending wedge. When I say a diagonal, I'm talking about an ascending wedge in this case. And so, you know, but until we're breaking out above 95, 150 and 47 cents, the default thought should be we're going to break down lower. Now what does that mean?
- [33:22]
Scott Melker
Well.
- [33:24]
Christopher Inks
The first place I would look here is this S1 pivot around 74, 207. So you know, again, my, when we were looking for a breakdown, we were looking at potentially just a sweep below the swing low here, the pivot right here that we hit or the S1 pivot kind of areas at 73 to 75,000 kind of area. So now if we get the breakdown, that would be my initial target. But based on the height of this pullback, we could potentially see it getting down around 69 to 70,000 if it were to break down. So we just got to measure out the height there. We look at that 16, 18 right there, around 69 and a half. And that gets us, you can see here, kind of gets us right here, this previous, this resistance area here coming through. So it makes a lot of sense. But the big picture here, if we kind of now that we can see what we've got here on the screen, you can see this, this huge low volume node. And something I often teach is price will rarely run through that low volume node without, you know, testing it a few times. And so really this is kind of the first test of it. And we kind of came down around halfway there, rallied right back up into the high volume node area here. So again, you know, I'm not excited to kind of jump in here until we see this, this really, this movement above 95, 150 and a half or so. Then we've got a potentially, you know, top of the range up here at around 104 or so. And that sets up a possible break on out higher. If we're looking for a pattern target based on the height of this here, that actually gives us a 134, 268 target. That wouldn't be the top. I would expect to move up there, a move down back to this range here, which would then act as a base and then one more push up higher. So, you know, with that in mind, the reality of, you know, not finishing the cycle until the end of the year becomes a lot more likely. But again, you know, we are sideways right here between this, you know, this Friday into whatever this was Sunday range here. And we need either a breakdown or a breakout before we really get excitable either way. But even if we were to break down, you know, again, I still think it's just a correction right now. Stocks are looking really. I, I've shared so many charts yesterday with our, with our students and so many just amazing setups really sitting there right now. And so it's hard to imagine that we're going to see the stocks rally and not crypto, especially with all the pro crypto stuff coming from the administration. And you know, what is it? Friday he sat there to mention something about Bitcoin. So yeah, it's, it's hard, it's hard to be really bearish. I know there's people out there who are. But there's been people been bearish the entire way up for the last couple of years, which has been crazy. So yeah.
- [36:20]
Scott Melker
Situation like I was discussing with Noel. Does any of that concern you for markets? None of it particularly. Like I said, I think bitcoin can do fine in the face of any of it. No matter how much news we get. Stocks just seem fine.
- [36:33]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, yeah. I mean, you know, right now, even with stocks just seems like, just seems like a, a pullback, you know, a correction. I'm setting up for a much greater move up, you know, a few years back, probably about 20, 21 or so. I think whenever the Dow was right around 28, 29,000, I said, you know, it was likely that we were going to see 50,000 before we, you know, saw any kind of real recession come in. And so, you know, right now we've rallied up to what, about 44, 45, 46,000 somewhere in there. So we're kind of getting pretty close to that. Doesn't mean we have to stop at 50. But you know, 50 is that psychological number, kind of like a hundred for bitcoin. Right. So I think we've got a lot more upside. You know, we come to stocks when we come to bitcoin and then we have, and then we have the rest of crypto. Right. Then we have alts, which people are really upset about because it was a lot of, you know, well, we want to just get emotional and buy in at the tops and then complain about the fact it's dropped 80. You know, this is, this is typical for, you know, new traders coming to any market. But you know, we've got TIA here on the weekly. I really, I really kind of like this setup. It is a very deep pullback for two. So I want to be careful here. But if we can break that 5.70 level, we're likely to hit $9 and 30 cents. And if we break that, that should indicate we're going to head up to new all time highs. So you know, you can see that $9.30 area is right there around that yearly pivot. It, you know, again, breaking out through that should be good to go much higher there. But if we zoom in a little bit more here, we start looking at some dailies. This is ns. I can't even say it. Synthetics. Nn. Snx. Jesus.
- [38:23]
Scott Melker
Snx Snacks.
- [38:24]
Christopher Inks
There we go. There we go.
- [38:27]
Scott Melker
Divergences at the bottom, by the way. But hey, whatever. What was that word we had bullish divergences on all these Alts across the board on the little pop the other day.
- [38:37]
Christopher Inks
But, but yeah, yeah, well, you know, and so with this one we've got this, we broke down through this previous support here and then you know, retested resistance dropped down lower here again. And you know, with this here, we're kind of at this, this kind of support area here as we get to that lower volume node. For me, you know, if, if we can break out back above that $8 and a half, really I would just give it because the, the pivot's so close there. But that monthly pivot that shows up on the daily here at a dollar eleven and a half. If we can get an impulsive daily candle breakout and close above that, I think, you know, A$62 becomes the next target. If we can break out above that $2 and 26 and a half cents becomes the next target. And if we're doing that, the odds are high that we are going to break out above this swing high here at $3. And what is that? 3.69. And probably, you know, we, we would be looking up here at the next area up here about $5. I mean it's a step by step move along the way. But right now that's what I'm looking for if we're to break down though. I mean, you know, and this is going to be the common thing across most of these alts. They're kind of between the pivot and the S1. And so if you break down and lose your support there. I would look at the S1 pivot in this case, that's right there, about 61 cents. And I would look for a rejection there to carry back above the pivot and really kind of send, send it up. But you know, I think it's potentially there. But we do need that breakout. And so again, you know, same thing across multiples here. This is super USD, which possibly could have finished a running flat here. We've got a big structure coming off the low down here in October 23rd. So we've got what appears to be A1 and then an A B, potentially A running flat here. But again, you know, we're looking for the same thing. We're looking for a daily candle, impulsive breakout and close above that pivot at $0.69 to kind of signal, okay, we're going to rally up most likely. But if we lose support here instead, you know, we're bouncing right out of this weekly demand structure here. But I would look forward to target the S1 pivot down there. Around 38 and a half cents, which gets us right around. I believe that's the weekly. Yeah, the weekly or the yearly S1 pivot here. But if we take the bigger picture here, it really doesn't look bad, right this, we're getting a bounce right now in this low volume node. But then, you know, we've got a much bigger low volume node here, you know, which, that area there could catch it if it were to come down. And then it just gives us this big expanded flat. And then we just look for that thing to take off. But, you know, again, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. ABC. ABC. And I'm saying right here, it looks like we could get a running flat because we have what may be five down here already without breaking down below wave A. So again, you know, up through the daily pivot or down looking toward that S1 pivot is what we'd be looking for there. Sushi. I get a lot of people still asking about sushi, which is interesting. It was big for a while there, you know. Yeah, well, we, we had the sweep here, right? So we had this sweep back in August of last year of the. Of all the way over here, which was June of 23. So we swept. That looks like it's 3, 4, 5, looks like it's a leading diagonal here and potentially an ABC done at about a 78.6 pullback. So once again, looking for that breakout above that pivot at $0.92. Really looking for a breakout above this, the swing high, just slightly higher there at 98.86 cents. If we can do that. I'm looking for a target up here at this wave B at a dollar ninety two and a half. And if we can break out above that, we should be headed up above that swing high, you know, hang up there. But again, if we break down below the swing low here, we can look down toward this S1 pivot at just around 57 or 54.7 cents. And we'd look for a reversal here to kind of get us in that move back up above the pivot. So again, the same thing kind of playing across a lot of these alts as we look at it. Storage was another one.
- [43:11]
Scott Melker
Again, I haven't heard the name storage in a long time.
- [43:14]
Christopher Inks
It's been crazy, right? All these things that we heard so much about for such a, you know, a short period of time. And then also. But yeah, if we look here, it looks like we've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, up. It looks like maybe ABC or maybe ABC, right. Either way, A little bit deeper pullback here, but again, looking for that breakout above that daily pivot there at 36 cents. If we can get that, this one I would just keep, you know, toward this, this lone wick up here. So right around the R1 pivot at 46 cents would be my initial target. If we can break out above that there at 49 cents, that wick, I would look up into the next wick here, R2 pivot right there, about 59 cents. And if we're doing that, the odds are we're going to break out through the top here and continue up higher. But again, if we lose that swing low, S1 pivot at 0.231, 23.1 cents would be the target area. I'd look to see if we can get a reversal off that and head up through that pivot and finally stacks here.
- [44:20]
Noel Atchison
Stacks.
- [44:21]
Scott Melker
I like stats.
- [44:22]
Christopher Inks
There we go. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, here we are again. Same idea. We're sideways between the pivot and the S1 coming in. You know, if we lose support, S1 pivot at 0.579 would be where I'd look for a reversal. And if we can get that, you know, we just want the breakout again above the pivot there at 0.962. Or if we can go from here and break out above the pivot at point at 96.2, that opens us up to this low volume node and we should kind of pop through that, that up here toward, you know, potentially. Let me throw here generally around this area. Around A$35 would be my initial targets right there at the top. If we can break on through that, then I think we kind of continue to run it up here toward this next kind of resistance area here at about $2. And if we're getting up there again, the idea is we're going to break out above this swing high. And if we do that, we should break out above. What is that? The all time high there? Yeah, we should break out above the all time high and continue up higher. But, you know, it's, it's step by step. And I know for a lot of people that are in alts, it's been tough, right? And so, you know me saying, oh, on the daily time frame, you need to wait for this. And I know that's probably driving them nuts. But the alternative is you jump in on the one, you know, on the 15 minute time frame and thinking about weekly, you know, movements and you get caught and you get, you know, trashed again. And again, this Is why, you know, I always tell people, listen, don't just get stuck trading crypto. You know, learn the skills that you can trade and then you know, trade, you know, crypto trade, bitcoin trade, stocks trade futures trade forest.
- [46:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah, oh yeah, for sure.
- [46:11]
Christopher Inks
Everywhere, you know, even when there's not one in, in your alts maybe you can find. There's been great opportunities trading the Euro against the dollar for a while now. You know, as far as longing that it's been, it's been absolute banger trade, you know, shorting the USD against the yen since it reached the top there a few months back has been a great bit of money to be made even while offs were sucking wind. So a lot of opportunity out there. Don't just get caught up in just trading alts, otherwise you're going to be miserable sitting here going God, you know, I gotta wait, I gotta wait, I gotta wait. But that's, you know, that's the reality situation. That's how you kind of save yourself.
- [46:49]
Scott Melker
I want to show you something on stacks that I'm seeing across the board just for the record because this is the stacks daily by the way and you had all of these things finally hitting oversold all across the board alts on RSI and potentially, I mean you had a bullish divergence there, some hidden bearish obviously here, but now you're looking at another potential bullish divergence here on the daily coming out of oversold on so many altcoins.
- [47:11]
Christopher Inks
Yeah, yeah. You know, the, the, you know, initially if you're, if you can't hold off and wait on that higher time frame, you know, look for a, look to get above a lower high on whatever time frame you're on. Right. When we talk about structure, market structures are, you know, higher highs, higher lows gives you the bullish market structure. Lower highs followed by lower lows alternating give you the, the bearish market structure. And so you know, if you can get over a, you know, a lower high, maybe you got a chance to get in, you know, on a lower time frame. Maybe you got a chance to get in there. But you know, it's important to remember what time frame you're on. Too many people get in there and they're watching the five minute time frame and that's all they're watching to, to get into some reversal. But you know, if you don't know where you're looking on the larger time frame to then zoom into the five minute time frame, a lot of times you're just going to get caught on a. On a bounce or something before it continues lower. And then you're wondering what the heck's going on. So you want to be careful with that.
- [48:13]
Scott Melker
Yeah, absolutely. Well, guys, well, I gotta run. Follow TX West Capital. Chris, check your WhatsApp. I sent you a message the other day. I don't think you saw it, but.
- [48:20]
Christopher Inks
Oh, okay. All right, great. Yeah, yeah.
- [48:22]
Scott Melker
That was my personal plea to Chris and otherwise, guys, give Chris a follow. Join Texas West Capital, and we will obviously see you guys next week. Thanks, man.
- [48:33]
Christopher Inks
Thank you.
- [48:33]
Noel Atchison
Later.