← The Wolf Of All Streets
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Bitcoin crashes below 58,000American dollars as sailors microstrategy under major pressure hitting a 28 month low. Bears are euphoric. I'm going to show you how bearish people actually are by taking a quick look at the prediction markets on higher prices for this year. And sailor haters have also been whipped into a euphoric frame frenzy. I get the sentiment, but there are also some facts worth discussing. It's Friday, which means we're just gonna riff, guys, let's go. Let's dope. Let's dope. Good morning everybody. Welcome to Friday and the hellscape that is the crypto and bitcoin market. Bitcoin, you know, back to prices from years ago. It's like you got really excited about buying the bitcoin highs in the last cycle and you're actually down. If you've been holding now for years, Altcoins look like they're absolutely dead. There's Lacroix awkwardly in the volcano. Oh, if they don't literally like, oh, it's moved. First of all, the smoke's moving. Did you make the smoke move or is that my eyes? You made it move and it's moving in. I think it's sucking into the volcano. But if I was going to do a, if I was going to do a Lacroix ad, I would have a La Croix volcano. Sweet. Okay, what was I talking about? All right. I don't remember, let's be honest. So we're going to start again. I'm very easily distracted. It's Friday and the add hits different. So you know, we're going to go ahead and just start kind of with the bitcoin chart and price and show you why bears are an exploding volcano of excitement. I did the wrong one. Look at that. There it is. Take a look at the chart. This is the weekly bitcoin chart. Many rightfully pointing out that we are trading at the lowest point since October 2024. Not much bounce to the ounce right now and trading currently below the 200 Ma, although we will see what happens by the end of the week, which is Sunday. Right. Not very long. We got about 24 times 2 plus 1260 hours until the week closes and we see if we get this close. Now. We've only had this really happen a few times in history, most notably ftx. Right. You can zoom back on the weekly chart here. Every other time we've touched this red line, that's the 200 ma, we've basically bounced. We closed slightly below it once in a Previous cycle, but we're immediately back above ftx. It broke below on the first try, though, a little different, and traded below basically for nine months and kind of broke below a little bit here. Tom, starting to look likely that we might lose the 200 ma, which is giving bears a little more excitement about prices going much lower. Now, if you're a person like me who actually likes buying bitcoin, it doesn't really bother me. I'm going to be really super honest. We kind of joke in our studio all the time that we'd love to buy bitcoin at like $50,000, $45,000, I don't know. But the problem is that there are some systemic and sentiment risks to prices going lower. And we have to be intellectually honest about that. But I took a look. So as you guys know, we partnered with Kalshi a while ago. I did that video, which was really cool on their perpetual swap product, which I think is great, with extremely low leverage. So now I've been. I can actually trade on Kalshi and I can't on Polymarkets. I've been taking a look at their markets. How high will bitcoin get this year? Only 15% of people here thinking above 99. So give it. We have six months left. Like anyone who's been here knows bitcoin can, you know, double or halve in price literally immediately. I mean, March 12, 2020, the COVID scare. Bitcoin price cut in half and bounced all the way back in 12 hours. Basically, it went from just above 6 to 35ish. I call it a 45% drawdown and bounce right back all in a matter of 12 hours. So, you know, above 110, 18. Above 129%. Now we're starting to get into the crackheads. Eight, three. I made above 199,004% of you out there. I don't know, I would take the other side of that one in theory, but like, there were people who also bet like a million dollars to make 30,000 on Spain beating Cape Verde and lost a million dollars. So that 4% sure thing in prediction markets, never a sure thing, but I found this one really interesting actually. Bitcoin price at the end of 2026, 19K or below. I mean, 20K or below. Wow. 4.5. Interesting. So listen, these are spread out in $5,000 buckets, but you can see that the big interest right now is basically anywhere from 69 down to, let's call it 45, right. Even 75 down above that, there's not a single bet, really above 780 that is even more than 4% that anybody would take that bucket and you start to get up into the hundreds and it's like 3%, 2%, 2.8%. So I would say that consensus very clearly when you look at these markets is that there's basically no chance we get back above 75 to end the year. Six months. Five months. Six months away. Math. Six months away, somebody said. Has Scott defended STRC yet today? No, I'm going to get there. Don't worry about it. The funny thing is we'll get to it. Should we do Saylor now? Yeah, we'll do sailor now. Let me see if I have any sailor images I can show you, because this. So here's my problem. I have a problem. It's buying bitcoin, no matter what price it is. But I have another problem, and it's that I'm being viewed as like a Michael Saylor homer at this point. And I do, you know, I am friendly with him and I do deeply and genuinely appreciate how much buying he's done for bitcoin and what he's built over the years. And I think we obviously wouldn't be anywhere remotely near where we are without him. There's a flip side to that, which is that there's people who are so far down the bearish rabbit hole of him that there are irrational arguments. And my issue is when I see irrational or factually incorrect arguments on social media, some, like, instinct in me jumps in where I have to correct it. And there are so many bad, unfactual takes on strategy and sailor right now that I keep jumping in to clarify them. And it looks like I'm massively defending him. I'll be honest, I don't own. Like, I had bought some microstrategy, I think, at 150 or something. It went up to 170 and it dropped, hit my stop, I'm out. I do own strc. I bought some at 100, I bought some in the low 90s. I will buy some more here, but it's a very small fraction of my position that I view literally as the dividend. And I don't see the dividend going away. In fact, I see it going up. So as long as they continue to pay the dividend, the price of it is really irrelevant. Right. So listen, I don't think that STRC going down is good. It's obviously a bad signal of confidence in the market. But. But I think that There's a lot of reasons that confidence is down that, that are false. Right. So that's kind of the problem here. It's funny, there's an article here on Yahoo. Finance which they always put my face on. They just run the Daily Wolf in all the Yahoo Finance articles. But I didn't write the article and it looks like I said Michael Saylor's strategy faces no easy way out as bitcoin prices continue to drop. That is somewhat true. And then I want to get into this law firm. But so I think where people are conflating this on social media is there are people who think it's in a death spiral and it's over. And there's a very major difference between no choices and no great choices. Right. I would say right now, in the very short term, he doesn't have great choices. He has to slightly dilute microstrategy shareholders to be able to add back to the cash reserve and to be able to buy more bitcoin. I can see an argument for saying, hey, stop buying bitcoin for a while, bro. I see people saying that that could be rational. I can definitely see an argument for them having not. They should have not paid off the convertible note for 1.3 billion because that sparked all of this because their cash reserve was big enough. But they're adding back to that cash reserve every single week. So I can see all the negative arguments, but he has plenty of options that are slightly dilutive in the short term to shore up the balance sheet. He added 300 million to the cash reserve last week. They only have 1.8 billion, 1.7 billion a year in dividend requirements. They added 20% of that just last week almost. Right. So I think it's very clear he's going to add to the cash reserve and shore that up. Will STRC trade back to par anytime soon? I have no idea. Will they keep paying their dividend? Highly confident they will because that would be end times if they stop doing that. So just to be clear, if you, no matter what price STRC is trading at, you get paid 11.5 bucks for every hundred dollars on the year. That. That is, that is at par to a hundred. Right? So yeah, right now I don't think he has an easy way out. And the funniest thing, though, let me, let me say this. You know what the easy way out is that nobody is considering bitcoin goes up like everyone who is super dooming sailor and I get it, like they've made it their whole personality, you know, you know how you get on social media and you feel like you're right about something and you keep pounding it? I get it. I get the emotional attachment there to being right, but that is also an emotional attachment to there being no chance that Bitcoin goes up. So if Bitcoin's at 80k, we're not even having these conversations, right? Everything is good times and puppy dogs and unicorns and, you know, I don't know, something else that I was gonna say that was gonna be so wildly inappropriate that I once, for once, decided to stop myself. So, yeah, look at that article there. And the next one was the one I wanted to get to. God, man. Why can't people think? Rosen Law launches Law Firm launches probe into microstrategies. That is an accurate. That is an accurate headline. The inaccurate headlines I've seen are that Saylor and Strategy are being investigated. Some people have said SEC and DOJ probing. Some people saying class action suit filed. And any person in America knows that you can sue anybody for anything, all the time, or the most litigious society in the world. And many would say that if you own a company, class action lawsuits are literally the cost of business. But here is one of those headlines strategies reportedly being investigated over the issuance of strc, right? No, they're not being investigated. What we actually have is a law firm using all of us, myself just included right there, as free PR to try to get people to join a potential class action to sue. Saylor, if you operate in crypto and you're in my position or something, you probably are going to get sued or have been sued or somebody or named in a class action, right? I was once named in a class action for Voyager, and it was like, me, Mark Cuban, Marshall Falk, Landon Cat, like, all these celebrities. And, like, my name was there at the end, it got dropped, right? But there's law firms out there, like this one, that literally sue everybody. Like, I was getting sued for something to do with ftx, and I never had anything to do with ftx, but they. They looped them all in, right? And nobody ended up getting paid. These law firms and their clients end up spending a whole ton of money. But I did have to pay for lawyers for, like, this insanity. Never talked about it, actually. But, yeah, you know, I like the information you bring, but you were definitely pushing a bull market while market was clearly rolling over. Oh, you. If you want to fault me for having a broken crystal ball and a bad opinion all day, bro, I'm a bull. I'm optimistic I frame almost everything optimistically and at no point do I tell you with any certainty where anything is going in the future. I just show you when I buy stuff. So, like, if you're mad at me that I bought Bitcoin at 88,000 and thought it might be a bottom, that's literally my money that I bought something with. So cool, you know, but so like, listen, we get these like nothing. I think the overwhelming theme here is that you can't believe literally anything that crypto Twitter tells you. You just can't. It's all wrong. It's all wrong. What is right though is that like, we're definitely in a bear market. You're right, you know, and maybe I was against. I don't really believe the four year that the last cycle looked anything like previous parts of the four year cycle, but this part certainly does. So maybe I'm wrong about that too. I don't know. I don't know. Guess we'll see. Bitcoin ETFC record investor flight as a cryptocurrency hits lowest level since 2024 so like, listen, every headline is bearish. Fear and greed is through the fricking floor and there's not much good news. Another story we've been tracking here, the wrong thing, that one, like my, my knee jerk is to hit the same button every single time. Binance says some European clients may be affected after pulling bid for Greek license. I don't know if you guys saw this story, but basically Mika is sneaking up on us. Those rules they made many years ago. Well, July 1st is the deadline to get regulatory approval. OKX has it Coinbase has it crack and has it Finance somehow was kind of choosing regulators and Greece was supposed to be the easiest one. So they went to Greece and then had it on good information like a week ago that they were going to get rejected. Right? And then the story came out that it was Christine Lagarde herself, the head of the European Central bank, who called Greek and like bro kick finance out, right? And it's part of her war against stablecoins, obviously, but it's a pretty big deal. So they pulled their application in Greece. Like I said on the Daily Wolf yesterday, this was basically like Binance realizing that their girlfriend was going to break up with them and then breaking up with her first, you know, because you don't want to be the one who gets broken up with. Like, they knew they weren't going to get the license, they pulled it, but now they're scrambling to find another regulator in the next four or five days to approve them. And if you get regulated in one, if you get approval, you're good for the entire European Union. Well, that not happening here. And so it could get pretty ugly here in the very short term. Sad to see EU cutting their users off from the best liquidity in the world. Liquidity is the best consumer protection. Hope to see things change in the future. Richard Tang basically said, hey, we'll get this in the next couple months. But also you're going to probably get a lot of two FA and scam texts for people claiming that they're binance and trying to solve your stuff. Five scary things that happen to crypto. Your exchange loses its mica license on July 1st, but these are things if you're in the EU you should probably think about now. Withdrawals could freeze before you expect them to. Your investor protections disappear immediately. Nobody believes we have investor protections. You may be forced to migrate to a platform you did not choose. Criminal liability falls on the exchange, not you. But you still pay the price and your exchange may simply stop serving you with no warning. My waitress did that the other day. How to protect your crypto before July 1, do a bunch of stuff, basically get your money off exchanges that might be kicked off. Very simple, but yeah, so that's not the greatest of stories that we've ever seen unfortunately. But you know, I would just be careful and choose wisely your exchanges moving forward. If you are in the United States now, where's one more thing I want to talk about. So we had. I want to talk about generally markets, because I thought this was an interesting thread. Take a look at yesterday. Obviously when Bitcoin did make that move below 58, all markets were dumping and a lot of people pointed at it being because of pce. So obviously PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and does not include energy. And it was up. So basically inflation was the hottest it's been in a long time, even if you discount energy. That said, oil prices are down so low that that is going to be disinflationary over the next couple months and could counteract that. But obviously markets reacted very negatively. But maybe the bigger story, as KOBC points out here, and something that I noticed as well was actually what happened with Apple. So Apple, if you didn't see this, raised prices on Macs and iPads by up to 25%. And Tim Cook said soaring chip costs made the hike unavoidable. This is the first big sign of what we're calling AI inflation. Inflation due to AI is being passed on to consumers. So I think that might be the bigger story, because even if energy is bringing inflation down over time, we have seen a hot inflation print. And when you add to that a 25% price hike from Apple, the bigger, biggest consumer goods company on planet earth, it makes you wonder what's going to happen. You know, technology is supposed to be deflationary. Sure, you've all read the Price of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth. If you hadn't, you should go read it. But generally, like, the price of your TV comes down over time because technology makes things cheaper. Right. Your iPhone, as he always points out, it's like you used to just have a phone and you had to have a camera and then you had to have a calculator. These are all separate devices. Now. All those things are free inside one device. And it makes everything in life cheaper. And the natural force of things, if you get rid of monetary and fiscal policy, is deflation. Well, what happens when there's so much usage that chip costs? Costs continue to go up, and that's unsustainable. And everybody's prices of the goods that they use every single day continues to go up. So I do think that that is really. Yeah, yeah. McGlone was right. Cry. He has been right about a lot of things. He was super early, and I don't think he'll be right to the ultimate downside, but he has been very right for a long time. I remember that. I don't remember what the steak dinner was, but the first bet, Dave crushed him in the steak dinner. Higher price of bitcoin or something. But if you remember at the peak, I think of the bitcoin gold ratio, they made a bet in a year which one if that ratio would be up or down, and it was down. Bad gold. Absolutely. Crushed bitcoin in that phase, you got to give credit where it's due, guys. You got to give credit where it's due. And there's a lot of credit even to the bears for being correct. Yes. Now I'm looking at what you guys are saying. Friday monologue's the best show of the week. You can just watch me do this on Yahoo. Every day. Not this, though. I don't drink there. I don't drink at work. This flavor is pretty good. Key lime. It's naturally essenced. It's not great, but it is more flavorful than some of the other ones. But key lime, you kind of think of dessert. And this does not taste like dessert, more like something you would drink in a dessert. But you ever get the spelling of those wrong? You know how I remember it? Dessert is the one. You don't want desert. You want dessert. It's got more S's. Someone taught me that once. Yeah, Fridays are fun because you can show up. I don't have to stress about my guests and whatever. Speaking of which, I thought that the guests this week were amazing. I don't know if you guys thought that, but we had obviously Brent Santo Capital, literally, the guy who created the dollar milkshake theory that has been quoted in economics for years. We had him on Monday. Guess who's going to be here Monday. Guess who's joining. Okay, I want you to take your guesses. Who's going to be the fourth since James isn't there for macro Monday on Monday, but then on Tuesday we had Caitlin Long, who's amazing. Then on Wednesday at Dan Gunsberg, I thought he gave great, great insight on options and prediction markets. Then yesterday, Ryan from Bitwise was absolute rockstar. People are pointing out that my volcano is imploding. I talked about that already. I admitted it. Yeah, Sailor. Not sailor. Larry coming back. Someone said Superman. No, Larry coming back. I invited him and he said he couldn't do it. I did invite him. I literally invited Larry. So, yeah, let me see. Larry coming back. No. Who do you guys think? Larry Theard. No, it's not Larry. You guys aren't guessing enough. So I'm going to tell you. I don't know if this is good for you. 1 Peter Schiff, Esquire. 1 Peter Big Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff. Can you imagine Dave Weisberger's brain while sitting across the screen from Mike McGlone and Peter Schiff at the same time. Can you. Can you. Me and, me and Dave, we're going to be doing the ADHD uncomfortable dance the entire time. Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff will be here on Monday for macro Monday. It's going to be epic fun, guys. And people actually, you know, like, they get mad that, like, I tweet Peter Schiffism and stuff. But guys, you know, it's hard to be balanced in this. And I say, and I take the most retardedly bullish things and tweet about them. Tom Lee says ethereum will be $475,000 by last week. Nobody gets mad at me for that. But I'm like, Peter Schiff says, you're all investing in a Ponzi scheme for some reason. They get mad. Yeah, man, you know, I try. It's very hard. I learned very hard. Way in the past that being like a gratuitous bull all the time, or at least even if I am presenting only gratuitously bullish stuff, it's not good, right? So listen, I like to have conversations with people like Peter. And let's be honest, he's going to talk about bitcoin relentlessly, no matter what, because, like, you cannot stop him. Last time I interviewed him, I started the interview with Peter. We're not going to talk about bitcoin because we agree on 99.9% of things. Bitcoiners, gold bugs, whatever. And he proceeded to just pound bitcoin for, like, an hour, no matter what I asked him. But if we can actually focus on the macro, his perspectives are incredible and perfect in this, I think, economic times, I think it'll be really, really, really, really good. Yeah. Will Peter be wearing a new gold grill? Actually, last time I was with Peter was me, Peter and James Heckman. And you guys may remember, I started the show like this, and while the music was playing, I went and put on a bunch of gold chains, and I said to Peter, I wanted you to feel comfortable here, you know, one of you. Anyways, so it's going to be a lot of fun. Someone said, I would pay a lot of bucks for Larry to come back, tell someone else to fuck themselves. Well, he's. You know, I tried. I asked him. I was like, hey, I know you're not interested in this, but do you want to come on a Show with Mike McGlone? And Peter Schiff said, no. You know, guys, you got to shoot your shot in life. You know, Even if Larry was that hot girl at the bar, and you knew she was probably gonna say no, what if she said yes? Could be her future wife. Never. Literally never know. I think it's gonna be interesting. I think the bulls might be outgunned on Monday. Could. Could get real weird. All right. I just did this till 9:25. We covered all the news. The only other news, I would say, wait. This is kind of important. I think Fun Strats bit mine to join the Russell 1000 index aftermarket today. So I just find this very entertaining because all those retirees and people who have, you know, 401ks and stuff, who hate us. You all own Ethereum now. Congratulations. Your favorite assets. I think. I think I'm gonna go ahead and leave. My head's getting hot. This ear is hot. This year, not so much. I don't know why. Yeah, it's pretty much all we got. I'm glad you guys stuck with me. It's fun. I. I really hope that you read the Price of Tomorrow. Someone just said, look at. Oh, that's not what I was looking at. That's not what I read. My eyes don't quirk, but God bless the saints who found their wife at the bar. Found my wife at a bar club. It was a simpler time, you know, when you talked to girls with your mouth. Crazy man. That's all we got today. I will see you show up for at noon for the Daily Wolf and otherwise, like, just go use your pencils or your fingers or whatever you're going to do to put in your calendar that shifts joining on Monday. It's gonna be epic.