← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
A
Bitcoin is currently trading below 69,000 inflating American dollars as ETFs extend their massive losing streak with 11 straight days of outflows and $3.4 billion worth. What the hell is going on? I have no idea, which is why I bring Andrew and Tillman here to tell you exactly what's happening so that I have plausible deniability. Let's go.
- [00:27]
B
Let's.
- [00:42]
A
What's up, everybody? How are you doing? Happy Tuesday. Wake up. Welcome to my humble lakeside abode where I go for peace and quiet as bitcoin crashes and the Internet screams at me for being bullish. I'm gonna bring on Tillman and Andrew right now. You guys could join me.
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B
Out there.
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A
Andrew doesn't even wear a collared shirt when he goes on stage at a conference for everybody else, right?
- [01:06]
B
Yeah, that's right. I'm leveling up. The further bitcoin goes down, the higher I level up with my, with, with my shirts. If we're in the 40s, I'm wearing a tux to this show. Okay.
- [01:19]
A
The way things are going right now,
- [01:22]
B
it's, it's, it's brutal out there, but it's, it's a simple answer, man. It's, it's, it's. Bitcoin ETF flows are. They just dominate bitcoin price at this point. We've got 11 days in a row of outflows, and so we've seen a meaningful move to the downside when we had a full month of like 3 billion in inflows. We went from where we are now up to 82. So you just. It's a boring story for a podcast, but it's just true. It's just the reality.
- [02:01]
A
Yeah. I mean, here it is, right? $766 million in liquidations as Bitcoin crashes below 70k. That may or may not be my face embedded in that article. I didn't know that was going to
- [02:12]
B
be
- [02:15]
A
from a little show you might have heard of called the Daily wealth on Yahoo. Finance. But yeah, I mean, this is one of those things where it's pretty obvious what's happening. Right. Price kind of starts to hit certain very obvious levels. So 70,000 is going to be a major psychological level, I think. Probably a lot of stops down there, a lot of things triggering. So you have these massive liquidation cascades and it pushes price even lower. And then you kind of get the fear and some more people sell their ETFs, and you get this sort of temporary cycle pushing price in either direction.
- [02:46]
C
Yeah. Or you just get the sell in May and go away. You know, everybody's kind of putting it in park for the summer. And that's when you get rid of things that you don't want to have to monitor things that are, you know, on the teetering point, if you will, or, or things that are highly volatile. And so I just, I just think it's a natural progression in, in the maturity of our markets. If you look at kind of the past cycles and what they've been driven by, it's, it's been things that are a lot less predictable than this, I'll put it that way. So this is a gift, you know, it's kind of just get into the Wall street cycle of when things pump and when things move. And I will say that the clarity act is, is, is an excuse for it not to move, in my opinion. And when it gets cleared up, I think it will start moving again. Even, you know, kind of regardless of what time of year it is, even if it's in the dead of the summer. So, you know, it's, we're waiting for a catalyst event. In the meantime, we're going to trend sideways or slightly down. That's good, that's consolidation patterns. And when we find a bottom, we'll either find it on really good news or we'll find it because everybody's back at their desk and they're ready to trade again. I mean, it's going to come is the point thing.
- [04:03]
A
Is everything else still going up? Nvidia it's like 5% today, 7% today. I mean, I saw, I think it was SanDisk that has a 99 RSI on the monthly chart. I don't think I've ever seen 99 RSI on like a four hour chart. Certainly not a daily or weekly on the monthly chart. I mean, the amount of FOMO and hype right now in the stock market is out of control. And we saw that with metals and we saw that with oil. So maybe it just gets to us eventually.
- [04:32]
B
Well, so, so here's a statistic, right? So the stock market's out of control. So we've hit 23 new highs in 2026. But how many highs did we hit in 2024? 57. 57 new highs in 2024. So, man, we're about halfway there. We're not even, we're actually not even halfway there for 2024. There were 38 in 2025. Don't fight the tape, man. I mean, that is a long tenured reality.
- [05:09]
A
Yeah, but,
- [05:13]
B
yeah, so it's all the narratives and all the excitement about. You know, there was a point earlier this year, maybe it was late last year, I don't remember, but it's a ver. It was a version of. Well, bitcoin is decoupling. It maybe it was around the first Iran bombing. Like the first Iran bombing. Bitcoin didn't move. Maybe it went up a little and the stock market went down for 45 seconds and everybody in bitcoin was like, oh, bitcoin's decoupling. Look, it's this asset that does cool stuff. Okay, well, that's gone. Everything else is up. It's down. I mean, listen, you have to, you have to realize that any asset that you believe in, the best time to buy it is when you go to look at the price and it makes you want to puke.
- [06:00]
A
Yeah, you gotta puke.
- [06:01]
B
Okay, I'm physically ill, so maybe I'll buy.
- [06:04]
A
Or you have to puke when your algorithm buys. I don't puke. But yeah, I'm looking. I'm literally just for reference. So SanDisk hasn't been around that long that it had RSI on the, on the daily. On the monthly chart. But you can see it right here. I mean, you know, it got our. You know, because it takes a certain amount of candles. I mean, this is rsi. A hundred. I mean, you know, this is like over.
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B
Look at that tiny little line.
- [06:34]
C
That's not called an outlier. I don't know what is. And one word comes to mind. Rotation. I mean, that's a, That's a hell of a ride. When you take that type of a ride, you know, you should be thinking about de. Risking the position at some point.
- [06:49]
B
Yeah.
- [06:49]
C
Like taking some profits off the table. But you. Who, who knows which, you know, how long these things will run. I was watching Sam Altman talk about his new, you know, mega center that he's building and they were doing an on site interview and you know, they're spending $50 billion on this center. There are bigger narratives that have kind of stolen the spotlight, in my opinion, than bitcoin. It doesn't mean that bitcoin won't steal the narrative back once it kind of unveils itself as the most sterling collateral and people actually start to have access to lending against it.
- [07:30]
A
But I just want to further that point just before you go on, because it's actually the bitcoin miners that are pivoting. Literally, our miners are pivoting to AI and are taking that money for building out those Data centers. It's our guys. You can literally see the rotation in real time with the people who are mining the bitcoin.
- [07:49]
C
Well, because you're going to get the biggest multiplier in the stock price. And that's what the whole game is about, is the share price multiplier that you can pick up when you are, you know, at the front of every headline. And at the same time, you're raising capital. And if you look at the amount of capital that our industry raised in the mining space, specifically, you know, over the last 16, 18 months, it's been nothing short of extraordinary. I mean, second only to Michael Saylor's capital raising efforts. And so I just think there's a rotation that's happening and that that's good. It means we're in the rotation. And. And when it comes back to, you know, our time to shine, people are going to remember the million dollar narrative and that will be the expectation. And so no different than the last cycle. I mean, if it wasn't very long ago where we were celebrating it, crossing a hundred thousand, now we're kind of like 126 or bust. You know, 100 grand was like the biggest deal ever in the history.
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A
Taylor had his party in Miami. I did not attend. I was like this. No.
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C
Yeah, well, I mean, like, I'm not
- [08:56]
A
spending New Year's with bitcoin maxis.
- [08:59]
B
So let me, let me give you guys some context as to some of these numbers, right?
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A
And it's all, hopefully you're going for.
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B
This will blow your mind. Okay, it's at 68.
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A
All right, I just want to put that up there.
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B
All right, so great financial crisis, right? So Tillman just mentioned $50 billion for this or that or this data thing. This set up this deal. Anthropics worth 900 billion. They're gonna. Google's raising 100 billion. 80 billion. During the great financial crisis, politicians, D.C. and the entirety of America was losing its mind over the fact that we needed $800 million to bail out the entirety of the global financial system. That's it. 800 million.
- [09:56]
A
I thought it was billions, but yeah,
- [09:58]
B
no, it was $800 million that they approved. During the great financial crisis. There was more money that was given to AIG after the fact that nobody even realized. But still, people were losing their mind about, you know, is this some sort of, you know, setup where, you know, you can't be held responsible for the problems that you create?
- [10:20]
A
And yeah, we were old enough to remember when a billion dollars was a,
- [10:23]
B
a lot of Money, Yeah. Now it's like no billion dollars.
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A
Like they have liquidations in crypto and price moves 3%.
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B
Yeah, yeah.
- [10:34]
C
You have billion dollar coins that you've never even heard of. I mean, a billion dollars is nothing in the space of AI and tech. I saw a headline yesterday that was staggering. It was like, you know, anthropic is valued at almost a trillion dollars with like 48 billion in revenue and don't quote me exactly, but very close to these numbers. And Walmart is close to a trillion dollars and they have 900 billion in revenue. You've got a 50 to 1 on the revenue front and yet you have the same valuation. That's a lot of hopium out there. And I think it's going to be very similar to the tech boom. There's going to be a lot of winners and there's going to be even more losers and the losers are going to crash and burn in, in, in glory because it's going to take that type of risk tolerance to stay on the bleeding edge of this industry. I mean they were, that was half the line of questioning that they were given to Sam yesterday, which is like, come on man, how can you justify $50 billion? And this is one data center of many that they're building. So you know, it's, and, and the reason why they can justify it. And this was the short of his answer because people want to give us the money to do it. And capital is always looking for that next rotation and that big, you know, exponential hit and that type of capital. If you think about it, guys, what other, what if you were going to place $50 billion into real estate versus $50 billion into a data center? Which one has more complexity, risk, time to execute, which one has more friction? Well, the real estate does by a long shot. So this is a way to place a lot of money and potentially get a massive reward. And my eyes got opened to the, this shine being off bitcoin from a capital investment perspective. When I started looking into this, because there is so much capital going into this, guys. I mean it is like the data center I saw happening.
- [12:38]
A
It's from the private companies, right?
- [12:39]
C
From the private companies. But my point is I think the government's next. I think this is the, the holy grail of excuses to print trillions and trillions of more dollars into, you know, the float we have to. In fact, that was a lot of the line of questioning yesterday was like, isn't this kind of a race against China? And Sam was flat out and said this is A, this is a race to basically, of all races, this is better. This is more important to the US than any other race.
- [13:04]
A
And really quickly, I just want to kind of, to echo your point. Do you know what the, the market cap of Coinbase is? 48 billion.
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B
Yeah.
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A
You know what the fully diluted market cap of hyper liquid is? 70 billion.
- [13:19]
B
Yeah. Right. You know how many customers hyper liquid has?
- [13:24]
A
20 billion more than Coinbase. If we're just talking about like wild valuations, I mean, that's based on a token that's trading which has real utility and never goes down. So I understand that. But like, you know, Hyper Liquid could get like, it could be like turned on. I. I'm nothing. It's hyper liquid, just to be clear. But like, you know, if the regulators decide they hate this thing, it could become very problematic. Right.
- [13:46]
B
So, yes. So a lot to unpack in the last few things that you guys said. So I'll, I'll hit each one of them. First, moral hazard used to be a thing. It seems to not be anymore. We've forgotten all about that. Second, you know, the commentary around valuations. What's interesting is, is to Tillman's point about the printing of money, Bernie Sanders is walking through that door and he doesn't know it. Right. So he's going to put, you know, put some piece of legislation that'll go nowhere, by the way, where supposedly the United States is going to take a 50 position in all the AI companies. Right.
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A
So clear take means take.
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B
I know, that's what I'm saying. Right.
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A
Hyper Liquid, where I spend my money to buy some of the token take. Yeah.
- [14:38]
B
So, but, but what happens after that? Oh no, these companies aren't doing as well. So forget about more hazard. Let's print a bunch of money and shove a trillion dollars down their mouths. Right. That, that's the next step after. Okay. Forced ownership of, of these companies. No different than the great financial crisis forced ownership of the banks. So we're shoving money down your throat, Moral hazard be damned. Right.
- [15:04]
A
Also going to be for zone. Well, anthropic and OpenAI Right. In your index funds.
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C
I think it's very interesting to think about because it's a shift against globalization of companies versus nationalization of companies. And when you do have the concentration that we do of technology coming out of the US in terms of development and innovation, you know, it does make a lot of sense from an economics perspective to pull that back or. But you know how to do that without making the US an unattractive place to own and start businesses that I think therein lies the magic. And we'll, we'll see if they can pull that off. But doesn't, I mean, taking half of a company just because it's, you know, based in the US it sounds like a pretty bad recipe as it pertains to attracting new companies.
- [16:04]
A
Works in China.
- [16:07]
B
The Hyper Liquid stuff, by the way, I, you know, did a little bit of digging on, on what's going on there, you know, very, very loud on crypto, Twitter, because there's not a whole lot else to talk about that's going up and. Yeah, right. But, you know, Coinbase has 125 million customers. Hyper Liquid has 2 million. So that's a meaningful delta in terms of scale. It's the reason why, you know, Jamie Dimon won't shut up about Brian and Coinbase, but he hasn't said a word about Hyper Liquid because he doesn't care. It's also a reason why over the next 24 to 36 months, it would not shock me if Coinbase ended up buying Hyper Liquid. So, you know, interesting stuff out there and big differences in terms of the scale of one company or another. Right. If you're Hyper liquid and at some point you need to scale to something other than people doing transactions and commissions generated on transactions, at some point you have to do something other than that at some level of scale. It's hard to do it at scale when you only have 2 million customers.
- [17:21]
C
Well, the key, getting the customer. You only have to have kind of one sizzle point or, you know, viral moment, if you will, to get a bunch of customers to keep those customers. It's a whole different ballgame. And to your point, it's gonna be hard.
- [17:36]
A
Yeah. Just ask Pop Mart. They got famous on Labubus and now people don't want Labubus. And what's happening at Pop Art now?
- [17:43]
B
Well, just, just look at. Oh, I saw a tweet about OpenSea earlier today that they opened up to prediction markets or something, you know, some weird thing. So, and it was, why do they want to be the 10th best at, at prediction markets when they should have leaned into additional collectibles like baseball cards and other weird stuff that I can't think of right now. And so like, you know, OpenSea four years ago was worth like some crazy amount of money. And there everybody in crypto was on OpenSea doing ST stuff. Now it's a, it's, it's zombie land. Right. It's a graveyard. And they're doing things to move Narratives or news, which somehow props up their value as they just absolutely burn through cash. So how do you avoid that if you're hyper liquid because you partner before
- [18:38]
C
you, you retire at your peak. And that, that, that takes a lot of discipline. And it takes, it's hard to do. It's very hard.
- [18:46]
A
I mean, very few employees, I mean, they're literally printing money right now. So, you know, I think they're.
- [18:53]
B
Four or five months ago, the OpenSea founders were like on the COVID of Variety magazine, right? So hard to get out of your own little bubble, right? It's hard to. Hard to get out of your own little bubble. And yeah, I get your point, Scott, about them making money. But again, that type of making money is commoditized and it will go lower and lower and lower and lower because what's right behind them, all the perps, all the things, all the stuff, Coinbase is doing it, Binance is doing it, the CME is doing it, that everybody's doing it. Once Trad 5 joins the party, pricing goes very quickly, right? Very quickly. So they, you know, they've got to scale out. Instead of just, you know, vertically in terms of revenue, then you got to have a bunch of customers to do that. Interesting to see how that plays out because again, some of these scions, quote unquote, of this industry are huge hype, hype men. So, you know, we'll see.
- [19:56]
C
I look at it a little different. I, I see what they're doing is like being a progressional journey of getting new and new valuations. Like they all, all they're trying to do is, right, make their company as valuable as possible. They have a very good model that's making money. That's the first order of business. If you can create a good model that's making money, then you have a business, right? And they have a very good business. And it continues to grow and it continues to, you know, get more in, in prominence and people know about it, but truth be told, I mean, nobody's really using it other than crypto people. They haven't tapped into the broader markets is my point. And so I look at them as being, to your point, a perfect acquisition.
- [20:42]
A
Why?
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C
Well, because you're really, you're buying a set of Rails, you're buying a decent customer base, but it's really more for the diversification in that customer base. You're accessing people you could never otherwise access. And so there's a play there. But for them to get to what I would call the too big to fail category, Like Coinbase, there's a, there's a chasm that nobody's gonna buy them. I mean, 90 of companies plus fall into or 95 of plus.
- [21:13]
B
Yeah, so that's an interesting headline, right? Bigger than big. Yeah, bigger than nasdaq. Right.
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A
So, but this is from the CEO of the guy that owns the New York Stock Exchange. So.
- [21:25]
B
Yeah. So again, NASDAQ is not big, guys. NASDAQ is just an exchange that literally, you know, is making money on tenths of a tenth of a tenth of a penny for. To, to move stuff back and forth across exchanges accounts. It's. NASDAQ is not big.
- [21:48]
C
When a headline is that vague, you have to ask what the framing is. Like, what's big? What metric are you defining as big? Are you talking about gross revenue? You're talking revenue. Talking about number of customers. Like, come on, it's a, it's, it's a clickbait type of a headline.
- [22:04]
A
Yeah, but I'm saying, but those are comment. That is exactly what Sprecher said. Nasdaq, NASDAQ is, you know, it may not be big, but it's the second largest, you know, stock exchange on the planet, I think. You know, trillion in assets.
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C
So I'm just saying, like, did they.
- [22:19]
A
Either way, my, my point more was you're talking about an acquisition. Why would that guy be talking about Hyper Liquid right now? And you know, that ice, you know, they took a stake in OkX. They, they. Not. Not strange. We've had a lot of stories of acquisition from them, and them identifying this early maybe is a tell. That's all I'm saying.
- [22:39]
C
That's a great point. And, and I will say to that point, ICE is one of those few organizations that could afford them and, and could pull it off in spades pretty quickly. Or at least a partnership of some kind of. And you know, I, I think that's. You're, you're spot on. That's a good point. They're already talking about it, so they have to already be talking about it behind closed doors.
- [23:03]
A
Yeah, I mean, you know, there was that story recently that Goldman and it's always like, as if it's a monolith. But they had sold their XRP and Solana ETFs but had bought Hyper Liquid. You know, you just get like, I can't, you know, I'm at that point where it's like, is this peak euphoria at the top of a hype cycle, no pun intended? Or like, am I, did I miss this one? And it's Gonna go completely nuts.
- [23:26]
C
Well, I, I think it's gonna be told in the future. I think you're buying a premium right now because the reason why, you know, was obviously the valuations compared to other companies that are a lot more established with, you know, Coinbase having 50 times more customer than them. Than them. I, I think that there is a, a part of us that always wants to be a part of the movement and they have the sizzle right now. They, there is a lot of imagination as it pertains to how big they could get. But it's going to be on the back of the adoption of real world assets and tokenized all sorts of things that, to Andrew's point earlier, there's a, there's a massive race to those products, that development, those customer bases and they have the fastest athletes standing next to them in that race. So doesn't mean they can't win. Just know that they're up against legacy providers that have been storing up billions and billions and billions of free capital over decades for these types of transitional moments. Like that's the reason why they, they,
- [24:35]
B
yeah, there's a much larger percentage of 50 to 55 year old guys with money that have a Coinbase account that have no idea how to even open a hyper liquid hyper account. Right.
- [24:47]
C
So they don't even know what hyper.
- [24:48]
A
Not loud in the United States. They're not allowed. Right, right, right.
- [24:52]
B
So, so that therein is, you know, the rub, so to speak is that why is Coinbase uniquely more valuable for all the right reasons? Why is it a threat? It's a threat because that 50 to 55 year old guy has moved, you know, say he's got 50 million long at Morgan Stanley. Well, he's moved 3% over his Coinbase account. Then three years later he moved another 2%, then 5%. Now he's got 10% of that $50 million sitting on Coinbase instead of sitting in his bank at J.P. morgan or, or Morgan Stanley. Therein is the threat. Whereas are you, you know, are you, are you holding savings to move, you know, dude, any type of transaction a hyper. Of course not. Of course not. So there is the quote on threat and there again also is the risk associated with hyper liquid. What are you offering other than, you know, some version of trading that is exciting and fun and you know, leveraged, yada yada yada. And again, there is the difference between 125 million customers and 2 million, well, three very different deals.
- [26:07]
C
Brian Armstrong is no schlock to being on the bleeding edge. And he knows what, what to look for and where to move the ship. He moves that, that Coinbase ship more nimbly than most people. You move organizations a tenth of their size but if you look at a headline that dropped I think yesterday or maybe the like the 29th, it was about Coinbase and Kashi getting approval for their per futures and for U S customers now so think about this. We're talking about hyper liquid. How did they cut their teeth and why, why, why are we even talking about them? Where did they come from and why did everyone start using them? Well, because they specialize in perp futures and people could access them and they could access them and you know, in a place where they couldn't access them. Well, Coinbase is now offering that to US customers and they're the first ones to offer it to U.S. customers. So the competition is on, the race is on. The the integration of market is going to happen so quickly over the next year, year and a half. We'll have fully full integration by then. I mean literally that, that quickly. Why? Because it's that important to keeping and maintaining and growing your customer base, period. That what we saw in hyper liquid growth is exactly what we saw in upholds growth because they focused on XRP and they were able to capture that audience and that audience had a bunch of XRP that was worth a lot of money and value. They were able, they were the beneficiaries of that business. We're seeing the same thing here but it's just based upon who can get to the market first with the commercialized product and the platform that gets, gets the users excited and you know I'm glad hyper liquids had the, the success that they have but Coinbase is now in a, in, in the, in the lead they can offer it to U S citizens. They, they have a much better, better name, they have a much broader scope.
- [28:16]
A
They opened perps this week via no action letter from the. So Cal, she got approval directly. Yeah, Donald Trump Jr. Is on the board. Just saying. Coinbase got a no action letter from the CFTC that allows them to offer Darabit to United States customers through like Bermuda. So semantics but same thing. But now perps are coming to Coinbase. Moral of the story, right? So now hyper liquid is going to have competition from Kalshi and from Coinbase and such so they don't have a monopoly on that product and US Users I think will probably default to the ones that have regulatory approval here.
- [28:56]
B
So yeah.
- [28:59]
C
How much money is sitting on Coinbase's exchange right now that could be pushed over into that. And what does that, where does that put them as it pertains to kind of daily volume as the leader? I think it would, I think they could easily become, you know, they could make hyper liquids volume look small as to guess what.
- [29:19]
B
Well, if you're, if you're a hedge fund that was doing this stuff on hyper liquid, you know, trading oil or silver or whatever it is, you know, doing all that, that stuff that has additional alpha associated with it, but now you can do it on Coinbase and a good portion of your money attributed to this asset class is on Coinbase anyways. You trust their security, you trust their custody, you trust all sorts of stuff. You're going to do it there now. I mean there are, there are no meaningful differences. So you're gonna, you're gonna do it there. And again, to my point, this competition will always show up in this space. I cannot stress enough that an exchange is just an exchange like the NASDAQ is a conduit. These are exchanges and the ability for them to scale into anything other than how many customers can we get and squeeze additional dollars out of a little bit here, a little bit here, a little bit here, a little bit here. That is the business model. There's no magic here, right? It's just transactional, it's transactions. And it's why the likes of exchange type products don't become, you know, 500 billion dollar companies and a trillion dollar companies. They just, they, they effectively can't. So it's, you know, put it all
- [30:47]
C
the early exchanges were able to like Coinbase were able to because they had a competitive advantage of, of being the only ones that kind of had clarity in terms of terms of regulations. They, they were able to, number one, accumulate a large portion of the market share and then disproportionately charge for the services they were providing in the early days. I mean they were making so much money on fees that that's how they kind of, they built the moat around Coinbase and they really made themselves a profitable very wealthy. Well, they also had to keep a lot of supply of crypto. Well, they grew with the value of crypto as they held that they also had a lot of leverage products that they were collecting interest on and defaults on. They were making money in that. That was kind of the purest road of making a fortune as an exchange in the crypto space. Now it's like what product can I get all the volume to, you know, swoop to in a moment and then you know, the moment's gone and we, we don't hear about it, you know, six months later like we've been talking about with the NFT platforms. So time will tell, but Coinbase has the staying power to continue to try things until they find what, where the volume is and where the people respond. And if you look at even the prediction markets, that's another example of an extinct extenuation of this. Like how many prediction market headlines have we seen over the last year? Everybody's adding prediction markets.
- [32:27]
B
Why?
- [32:28]
C
Well, because there's a lot of people that are responding to that and they're looking at some of these other legacy sports betting books that have come out of nowhere, like DraftKings and they're going, man, the market really wants this and we have a big enough population and customer base where if we just get our customers to start looking at us in this light, there's a, there's a tremendous amount of money to be made. And you know, as you know, the trading of crypto has been commoditized in terms of pricing and as the ETFs and everything gets lower and lower in terms of fee scales, you have to stay on the bleeding edge of what you're offering and how you're offering it. And those two things are going to be exceptionally fast moving considering we're in the age of AI where you can get those things built and spun up very, very quickly.
- [33:18]
A
Yeah, I want to, before we move on to anything large public related, we have to. I mean we just spent like somehow 30 minutes talking about Hyper Liquid and Coinbase. But our goal is to make STRC the best credit instrument in the world. Michael Saylor, this was basically his response to selling a de minimis amount of bitcoin. Obviously just would love your hot takes on him selling bitcoin for the first time since 2022. People might not remember that MicroStrategy and I actually had forgotten, actually sold Bitcoin at around 15, 17,000 or something. Dead bottom of the market if you guys want a signal. But it was tax harvesting. They bought it back in more size, slightly higher, almost immediately and then the market flew. But they have actually done this before.
- [34:01]
C
I'll give you my take. I wish he had never had the stance I'll never sell a bitcoin. It sounds unintelligent as far as I'm concerned and I think it was a good narrative for the Maxis of the world. But you know, any, anybody in traditional finance is looking from the outside in going, why would you paint yourself into a corner when you don't have to. And the flexibility and the war chest that you've built up will basically prove you to be bulletproof if you take advantage of all these different, you know, mechanisms. And selling is one of those mechanisms. Borrowing is a mechanism. Like, there's just a lot, there's a lot of flexibility when you don't have these kind of emotional stances. And I think that was an emotional stance. I think he loved to stand on, on stage at the bitcoin conference and kind of stick his staff in the ground and say, thou shalt not pass. And, you know, it's, it's a maturing of the markets. I think it's a little bit of a black eye, honestly, because it reminds us of how foolish. We've kind of looked at things over the past decade. But, you know, it will soon forget about it and then we'll move on to bigger things because the economic model is brilliant. And he's going to keep making money, he's going to keep raising money. He is going to be in a unique position from a monopoly perspective in terms of the ability to attract borrowers. And I think that that's gonna, that's gonna change the dynamic from a lending in America perspective. And he's gonna have a competitive advantage that everybody's gonna kind of be scratching their head against going, how? How do we secure? No different than he has a competitive advantage in offering yield. Like, who else, who else do you guys know that's offering 12%, you know, paid out monthly, and now he's talking about moving it to every two weeks? No one.
- [35:55]
A
Why?
- [35:56]
C
Well, because bitcoin can, can produce that. And no different than that. Bitcoin also can produce a lending model at scale unlike any lending model we've ever seen before. Cheaper to run, easier to collect on, faster to scale. Like, just, you know, take all you know about blockchain and apply it to a bank that lends money. And you're going to find yourself looking at Saylor going, holy smokes. The most profitable business he has is the lending arm of his business. I really believe that will be the case in the future. So we'll see that develop over time. I don't know how long it'll take, but I'm proud of him for finally biting the bullet.
- [36:38]
A
And how long were we like, you know, he's going to stack all this bitcoin and then he's going to become a bitcoin bank and offer this full breadth of services. He's going to do all these financial things. And the second he does like one little financial thing, as you said, he shouldn't have said it. Right? I mean, sell your kidney, never sell your bitcoin.
- [36:58]
B
Well, again, the narratives on crypto Twitter was it's, oh, Sailor sells 47 cents of Bitcoin and it goes, it crashes again. The reality is bitcoin ETF outflows are what drive price. Nothing to do with the, you know, $0.26 of Bitcoin that Sailor. I'm just going to make it go down every time I mention it, you know, next time I say sailor, it's 16 cents. So yeah, I mean, the narratives are one thing and then there's the reality. And so by the way, he's, he's doing all sorts of banking things before ever becoming a bitcoin, bitcoin back. And so he's already doing those things, laying the foundation for doing those things. And I, I, I really do believe that, that even this small sale has much to do with regulatory considerations. 12, 18 months from now.
- [37:55]
A
Yes.
- [37:56]
B
And, and so, you know, he's, he's, he's playing the long game and he, by the way, he's played it exceptionally well for years and years and years. At least that's what Jim Kramer just told me in my ear right here.
- [38:08]
A
He just, he's not licking your ear today. He's,
- [38:12]
C
I mean, I, I read the number when it says that he sold 32 bitcoin. I did a double take and I was like, that sounds like he asked the, some regulator, so how many do I have to sell? He's like, minimum of 32. He's like, all right, Why 32 of all numbers? I mean, nothing bucks.
- [38:36]
B
Well, again, and also there's the, again, the positive narrative associated with that is bitcoin offers unique properties even when it's down a meaningful amount in the ability to tax loss harvest versus any type of equity or other type of asset. In the, you know, financial system, you can tax loss harvest very, very quickly by selling it, buying it back in 12 seconds and you can claim that loss. Right. So even for people that bought it, you know, at Sailor's party, at 101,000, they can benefit and then readjust their cost basis just like that. And so, yeah, as an asset, it has so many angles to it that offer upside, even when it's meaningfully to the downside. It's extraordinary. And Sailor will continue to leverage more and more of all of that. And I go forward basis, he'd be, he'd be smart to, to do such.
- [39:45]
C
We Forgot to mention our friends over a bitwise and what they've done, they've have made some headlines here recently. They're, they're hyper liquid. ETF has just gone nuts. One and they're big believers in hyper liquid. But then also they launched their carry fund, the Crypto carry fund which is very unique bleeding edge and another, you know, indicator as it pertains that they wouldn't be creating products if they didn't have already. They've already identified the demand. That's, that's how that works. So exciting stuff happening over at Bitwise. Good to see it.
- [40:23]
A
Yeah, they're amazing. So tell you want to talk about the tax harvesting?
- [40:27]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [40:29]
C
So the, the premise of Bitcoin or any asset that has a lot of volatility is that there's ways to harness value on both sides of the price. So if you take the current price and you say okay, what can be harvest to the upside? Well, when there's price movement to the upside, you can harvest that price movement in terms of turning it into yield or profit taking. You also have long term price appreciation potential above the current price. If you look at Bitcoin and the, the lower side of the curve or you know, below the current price, there's, there's a average price benefit that you can acquire. So that's when you're buying on the dips and you're buying a better cost curve. A dollar cost averaging strategy, that's one thing that can be harnessed on the downside. But there's also a unique status and we are not tax experts, so please contact your cpa. But there's a unique status that crypto holds as it pertains to being able to do something what they call as tax harvesting or tax loss harvesting. And it's, you know, unique to crypto. So it's something that you should be aware of, something that you should go, you know, educate yourself on if you've never heard that before. But a lot of people are starting to talk about it and you know, there's a lot of, you know, we just mentioned that Michael Saylor did it, I think back in 2022, but it has a status with the IRS that allows you to sell it and capture the loss attached to the position and then rebuy it right away. So for real practical purposes, let's just say bitcoin was at 126 and Scott Melker wanted to buy a large amount of it and he did. And then the price goes to 100. You don't know if it's going to go lower than a hundred, but you do know it's at a hundred and you do know that there's $26,000 of Delta as it pertains to your cost basis and where it is. And so that $26,000 of loss, if you sold the Bitcoin, you get to, you know, claim a $26,000 loss. Well, that $26,000 loss applied to your tax rate and applied to other gains to offset the gains is a valuable thing for you. And so as you know, crypto drops, there's these opportunities where you can do a very simple calculation as to, with your cpa, what is that value? And then you can execute on, you know, selling your position systematically over little blips and then re buying that position instantaneously. So at the end of, you know, the process, you're getting an outcome where you've got a new cost basis and you've taken the losses that you've incurred on all of those cryptos, you are then able to claim those on that year's taxes and then you have a new basis going forward to, you know, in the same exact stack that you had before. So it's, it's a valuable thing to learn about. We offer a tool that allows you to execute that with your CPA very effectively. I think one of the hardest things for the CPA is that they all know this exists. They all approve of it. You know, they all want to do it for their customers, but there's a lot of complexity in them getting into your brokerage account and executing it. So this is a way for you to programmatically execute that and to put it into works with the simple click and have your CPA with you monitoring that and getting those, those tax losses realized. So very, very unique tool tool. We don't know of anybody that's offering it outside of money management and, or funds that you have to commit your capital to. This is a tool that you get to deploy, you get to use. It's as simple as, as we possibly could have made it. And with the help of your cpa, you guys can navigate it very, very effectively. So we're excited about it. It's, it, it has a very clear stated value to each individual attached to it. So you can, you know, with your advice to your cpa, find out exactly what that value is and move forward with, with using it very confidently.
- [44:57]
B
Yeah, we, again, the growth at Arch Public continues to be rapid, fast, quick. You know, we're, we're adding users very, very Quickly, we, we've added 25,000 in the last year. That's extraordinary. And so what comes with that is just constant innovation. So a tax loss harvest stool is something that you know, you have, you offer to people and people use it however they want. All of our algorithms, all of the strategies that we offer people, everything in our recipe lab, you know, available to people and can be adjusted, changed, moved based on whatever the user wants. We have additional things coming to market that, that people are find very, very compelling.
- [45:45]
C
We can, I'll nerd out on it a little bit. Well, it's, it's, it's back to what we've been talking about. It's like the connectivity of markets and there's this, if you look at the way that the financial markets in the US specifically work and how everyone has these registered investment advisors and you know, people are moving towards AI investment advisors, that's not going to slow down, that's going to speed up, up. And so if you have this AI investment advisor that's able to monitor and track your real time finances, your real time stock positions, your real time crypto positions, all your asset values and give you specific intelligence to you and your situation, you know, that's not, that's not a theory that's happening right now. You know, if you look at Sylvia that Pomp has done, that's customers have just loved it. They've had a huge influx of high net worth folks. I think there's multiple billion dollars under, you know, management with that, that AI tool now. So if you combine that with, okay, now the AI has given me instructions, how do I execute those instructions, how do I actually get the execution accomplished? Well, as you see all of these markets expanding and you see all of these new tokenized products and real world assets coming online and the ability for you to invest across every market from a few exchanges, it's going to become increasingly important for you to have tools that help you manage the execution of that and monitor across the board kind of what you know, you've done. And so Arch Public is really proudly standing in the gap of okay, how do we make the execution arm of this effort as easy for people as possible? And so we're building automated tools that are, and it are completely flexible to you and your situation. You can program them in very easily. We can show you exactly how to do it. We will teach you. And then at the end of the day you have you as an agent that you've built in the form of execution, monitoring the markets and executing on, on Parameters, when those parameters present themselves. And so instead of being reactionary to markets, you have the lines placed, you, you have the system in place to respond instantly to those, you know, reactions versus having a delayed response. And the quicker you can respond to those trigger points and the quicker you could admit failure when you're wrong and get out of those. That's a true management system that we have found that our customers absolutely love. It takes a lot of the emotion, if not all of it out of your, your trading strategies, and it takes your availability, you know, the pressure of always being available or always monitoring markets. It takes that pressure away from you.
- [48:43]
B
So we've talked internally about adding like, you know, different types of, of of music tracks to our algorithms. So they're a little more fun when people are using them like Freak Nasty and the others. But for some reason internally that, that hasn't gone to the direction that I'd like it to go. So I can't promise anything there. But we do have additional lines of, of algorithms that are, that are going to be coming to market over the next 30, 60, 90 days. People are going to be very, very excited about equities, ETFs. Yeah. So, and, and just an FYI, when we launch these types of products, they go to our concierge program folks first. So, so you want to be a part of our concierge program. By the way, the pricing for our concierge program tiers is as low as it's ever been. So you, you should probably engage with us and get involved. We do things like have concierge only webinars. We're having one later this week, Thursday. It's going to be very tax focused. We're bringing on a very, you know, special accounting firm that has a lot of history in the crypto space and, you know, just the financial space at large going to be talking about special tax processes and opportunities and ways to maximize what you're doing with that part of your financial life. But that's concierge only. You can't just join it if you're not a concierge member. So get in touch with us, talk to us. A lot of new products coming that people are either going to engage with us on these products or they're going to be forced to engage two, three years from now. And they're going to be behind the eight ball. So stay in front of the eight ball. Do things that are on the cutting edge of innovation, but do it with people that can hold your hand and, you know, you'll find yourself in a spot that's beneficial to your overall portfolio for sure.
- [50:49]
A
I can vouch for it. Been buying Bitcoin like crazy here. I may or may not have also manually had a big bid at 70,000 just in case. A long time. When we were at 82, I was like, you know, maybe I buy a little more.
- [51:05]
C
Yeah, the, the maverick in you wouldn't, wouldn't stay under the threshold. You had to press the speed barrier.
- [51:13]
A
There's things in different places, right. There's personal stuff and then there's business right there stuff. And we're getting set up on some of the other stuff and.
- [51:20]
C
Well, listen, I, I still have my
- [51:22]
A
emotions like a decent buy when I bid it at 82.
- [51:26]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [51:26]
C
I still have my emotional bell rung in the markets all the time. It's, it's human nature. If you're not feeling those things, then you really aren't. You shouldn't be doing it because you're not excited about movement in the markets. What, what's hard is, is how to tame that beast and how to make sure, to Scott's point, it's a small portion of your overall strategy. And nothing wrong with, you know, following your intuition with a prudent amount of capital, but your intuition is just that, it's yours. The market doesn't care. The market is a unbiased reflection of the populace. So it's something that we take a lot of pride in providing our customers their time back. And that's the most valuable thing we hear back from our customers is just how much of a time sucks investing, especially in crypto has been for them and what this frees up for them, both emotionally and actual time, it's, it's tremendous. And I. That's the point is with equities coming online and ETFs and the, the adoption of markets and the interconnectivity of markets, having these types of tools will be required to stay ahead of everything. You're going to need to stay ahead of and execute on those. So we'd love to help you. At the very least, come use our free product. We didn't mention that we do have a, you know, a very robust free product that you can cut your teeth on and talk to our sales guys on, and they'll get you set up and educated as it pertains to how to use it and you can see for yourself.
- [53:06]
A
All right, thank you, everybody. Check that out at Arch Public, all those things. 10 o'. Clock. And that's all we got for you today. We will. Obviously. I'll be back next Tuesday. I'll be back at noon for the Daily Wolf and of course, tomorrow. Thanks, everyone. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you, Tillman.
- [53:23]
B
See you, man. That's dope. Let's dope.