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We were celebrating the move of bitcoin getting up to 74,000 just earlier this week. Well, now bitcoin has crashed from 74,000 to 69,000 in just 48 hours. Crypto sentiment is at a two year low and your timeline is terrified. And that might be exactly why this is a generational opportunity. I'm going to talk about that and much more here as I freestyle by myself on, on this lovely Friday. Let's go. Let's do. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. I hope that you're all having a wonderful Friday as bitcoin continues to go down. We had some very exciting sentiment earlier in the week. We saw bitcoin, of course, drop slightly when there was an issue in Iran, but then we saw it climb even as other markets were going down. Well, now the natural pressure of everything in the world seemingly collapsing is obviously pressing down on bitcoin. And I think that we will likely be seeing a very similar phenomenon in other markets as well. Let's dive into it a little bit. Bitcoin extends decline from 74,000 derivatives data points to cautious positioning. Bitcoin traded just above 70,000 wrong. As Middle east tensions drove oil higher and traders reassessed inflation in advance of the U.S. jobs report due later Friday. Well, spoiler, we got that jobs report. It's really, really pretty bad. US loses 92,000 jobs in February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a gain of 55,000 new positions for February. Turns out this AI thing might be real. Unfortunately, it seems that job market is dropping now. I guess for people who are looking for rate cuts, that could be good news in the end. Right, because apparently if people are losing their jobs, that is a good thing generally. But in this case, that's not really driving markets up at the moment as we take a look, obviously with the job market under pressure, bitcoin. I'm gonna take a look at the chart here. I think this chart is about as clear as it gets at the moment. Why? Because there's a line in the sand and it's $74,000, right. And this is a line we've been talking about literally for years now. You can go back to 2024, we had that high there in March. And that's exactly where we visited on the way down as support last April when we had the tariff shock. Now it's perfect resistance here. There's a million levels, a million lines we can look for on the chart. But the reality is the air pocket we talked about yesterday, that goes up to about $80,000. Well, that air pocket only matters if we get above 74,000, as we said. Yes, we discussed it yesterday. There are 400,000 coins were bought between or moved between 60 and 70,000. There's a huge floor of support there. There's very little action between 70 and 80 historically, as you can see. I mean you look at, you take a look really at all the times we've been between it, you know, 80s here. So just these two candles right here and this candle dropping, that's all the price action we've basically ever had between 70. So if we can get above that level, there should be very little historical resistance there. But that's the line to be watching obviously, I think moving forward. And I think there's a narrative that's kind of brewing here. Obviously we had bitcoin sort of go up a little bit dropping now. But when you zoom out, bitcoin still in one of those bull market correction territory, you know, when you're down 45, 50%, it's something we've seen in every single bull market. You could view it as a bear market. Bull market doesn't really matter where we have a consensus. Bear market obviously is here in your beloved altcoins. Everybody loves their altcoins. I love them, that's why I hold them. No matter what happens, we just live with them and they take up space in your house and it's kind of like ugly pets that poop in the corner. I mean altcoins are absolutely horrendous right now. Everybody knows it, nobody's happy about it, but that's pretty much the situation that we're in. Altcoin mentions right now are the lowest since July of 2023 based on sentiment. I mean, doge is down 75 sol. I mean all these coins are down 70, 80, some of them 90%. Social dominance scores are down. I mean this is absolutely miserable. And I'm going to go on record as saying I think that most altcoins don't ever return to an all time high. But that doesn't mean that we can never get any sort of altcoin season again. I mean, as Coin Bureau says here, historically, when retail stops talking about altcoins, large holders begin quietly accumulating. I think that that's probably true. But you got to accumulate the right ones, right? And I think that right now you have to be paying attention only to the ones that probably have some sort of institutional narrative behind them. The bitcoins, Ethereums and Solanas, those that have a chance to catch an institutional bid. Everything else is pure speculation. If it's only going to be traded on crypto native markets, it could be in a lot of trouble. I mean you can take a look at the data. 30% of altcoins are now trading near their all time lows. Worse than the post FDX period per crypto. I mean worse than post FDX really puts in content just how bad this has been. I mean a lot of people can say we had a bull market, we had a cycle, Bitcoin made a new all time high, went all the way up to 126,000. But to me the hallmark of previous cycles wasn't just bitcoin's price action, but that we actually got alt seasons and that people actually cared and that some of these things which in hindsight were just moving on speculation and probably outright scams and maybe was just people extracting money from all of us. But they moved and they were exciting and there was money to be made. And I think that that is largely not been the case for years. There just really hasn't been an altcoin cycle. But when you start to get to historic lows, that could be a generational buying opportunity. I mean, I think about the hot steaming dumpster fire of trash, garbage that I used to actually believe in and unfortunately tell you guys about. I mean I thought in 2020 and 2021 that every piece of shit project that I bought was going to pull another 100x after it already pulled 100x. I was a FOMO tard like everybody else. I was fully bought into the fact that all of this stuff was going to go up forever. And as a result I held a lot of it down. 90, 95, 99%. Just like the rest of the. You. One of us, one of us. Not proud of it. Not proud of it. But it turns out when you look back, we were being sold a false bill of goods to some degree. Right? I mean, what do I mean by that? Let's look at like the way that these altcoins were largely founded and developed in those early years. Like you had literally people creating a project. Like listen, I'm again like I'm a bitcoiner, so I'm against money printing. But you basically had these founders and they created money out of thin air, right? You can choose any token you want. We can like something that rhymes with sex. Rp, I don't know. But you think about this and listen good for them. But you create a token and then you sell that token to people and Every time it goes up, you sell them more of that token and you enrich yourselves and your company and you make billions of dollars. And. And so it's like the reverse of an Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos who builds something and then extracts the value from that to enrich themselves because they've built something that actually has income and is doing it. Crypto was the reverse. Everybody got super rich who founded something, and then some of them, to their credit, have actually stuck around instead of just going to live on an island, some of them have stuck around and actually use that money to buy things, but they're using the money from the tokens that they sold to their audience to build a business years later and make billions of dollars. So, yeah, I mean, maybe, maybe it was a bad idea to invest in some of these things, you know, doesn't mean they can't go up now. Doesn't mean. But like, I think we're all wiser to that right now. And that's probably why an alt season hasn't happened. Like when you see people just like pushing a token. Dude, I was guilty of it. I thought, like I said these things were gonna go up forever. I was just getting rug pulled like everybody else. I was talking to these founders, we had them on the show. These guys all got rich. Most of them never built anything. So most of those tokens, unfortunately, we're going to be riding on the back of it, but most of them should actually die. That said, if you pick the ones that are doing fundamentally good things based on utility, we could actually have some generation opportunity and a lot of money to be made right now. Obviously one of the big stories right now is cracking, getting their master account at the Fed being offered that by the Kansas City Fed. Well, if you missed it this week, Kraken got this license, which is the skinny account that Fed Governor Waller had been talking about. The industry has been waiting for somebody to get some access to Fed payment rails. Well, that happened. And then of course the bank lobby the next day went ballistic and decided that that was a bad idea and they hated it. And they criticized Waller and they criticized the Fed throughout. A few F bombs and yeah, but now Kraken surprise Fed win may hark an onslaught of crypto firms with narrow Fed access. Yes, that's exactly what this is. Kraken is pilot idea that is going to become mainstream. We're going to see all of our beloved exchanges and those with banking licenses start to get access to the Fed, which is awesome because the crypto industry has long been beaten down by the United States government. But it's also important to remember that the Fed is a complete scam. It is a literal cartel used to steal all of your money through inflation. It is neither federal, you guys know, it's so, it's like it's neither federal nor reserve. Like read the Creature from Jekyll Island. The fact that we now as bitcoiners in a crypto industry have to cheer access to the most corrupt and like literally just horrid systems in the world kind of makes me upset a little bit. But it's the pathway that we have to go through if we ever want this asset class to become massively mainstream. But yeah, Kraken hearkening a new world here where the crypto industry can join the Rothschild, Rockefellers and JP Morgan's of the world in controlling the world banking cartel suite. Trump sides with crypto firms in trillion dollar battle with banks over stablecoin yield. We talked about this yesterday. That ball beauty, Brian Armstrong, bbb Better Business Bureau. I can alliterate that Beautiful bald Brian badass. He went in there to Trump and he sat down. Trump, I didn't see the footage, but I heard this is what happened. He said, listen here, shave your head. And Trump considered it and then decided instead of shaving his head that he was gonna back the crypto industry. So obviously we've had this battle in the Clarity act over whether we're going to have yield bearing stablecoins or whether the banks, the same cartel I was telling you about before, whether they're just going to maintain their stranglehold on that yield and not hand it off to their customers. Obviously the crypto industry wants to be able to, you know, give you guys some yield on your deposits. What a scam. The banks, man, what a scam. They take your money and then they take all of it and they lend it to someone else and they give you like a half percent and they make like 5, 6, 4, 5, 6% on it. They don't give you back any of that. And then the bigger scam is that your money that you give to them that they then loan to someone else is an asset on their balance sheets to have a liability even though they loaned it out. Guys do a deep dive on fractional reserve banking sometime if you want to really understand the scams that we're cheering on here. But either way, Trump decided he came out, he pooped all over JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon. The memes were incredible and basically said that the banks need to Come to the table and get this done. Dave Weisberger actually had a great take about this. Do I have it here? Yes, I do. Can anyone explain when the banking industry has the ability to veto legislation? I must have missed the part in my political science classes. Given the damage they've done to the nation and the trillions in bailouts they've received, it is unconscionable. They have that power. That trillion in bailout is the system and that's why they have that power. Once again, read the Creature of Jekyll island. You'll see that the whole game is called bailout. This is how the structure is made. This is how the Fed, which is neither a federal or a reserve, is. A bunch of private bankers came together to manipulate the system to make sure that they could push the limits as far as possible, eventually crash down and then convince Congress that it was their job in the interest of the American people to come in and bail out those private banks. They obviously have undue influence in Washington. So Dave, being a bit tongue in cheek here, it's very obvious why this is actually happening. Because the banks will preserve their power no matter what. They likely control most of our government if we're being really honest here. So I don't see this Clarity act passing. And how, how is this thing going to possibly pass and if it does, how is it not going to be something that's just favors the banks and absolutely crushes our beloved industry? And getting a pulse check on the Clarity act, here we have Eleanor, who is just awesome at breaking news. She's basically saying that it's down to a couple politicians right now to accept what they want here, but that the banks are being contentious. They haven't really decided to become a part of this process at all. And we haven't even gotten to ethics or defi or any of the other major issues that we would need to address to get this bill done. I'm going to go on record once again as saying there is no way in hell that this thing is getting done anytime soon. I would put it at less than 10%. So listen, if you got pocket aces and you go all in pre flop, sometimes you get cracked. I could get cracked, right? I could be wrong. I'm wrong all the time. It's kind of my thing. And if you're not willing to be wrong like then you're just like some kind of over emotional sheep anyways. But I'm willing to be wrong. But it just looks like from the outside there's just absolutely no chance this gets done. Even if they come to an agreement on yield, how are they possibly going to come to an agreement on, I don't know, ethics. Like the Democrats are not going to sign a bill that allows Donald Trump to launch meme coins. And Donald Trump's not going to sign a bill that has ethics language that disallows him for participating in the crypto industry. I believe that's the nonstarter that we haven't even gotten to yet in the conversation for clarity. And it's already midterm season, the primaries are just happening, so I just don't really see it happening. Sorry, I don't. So we obviously had that good news from Kraken. We have some other good news, which is New York Stock Exchange owner ICE invests in crypto firm at $25 billion valuation of course, this is my good friends over at OkX, who I have long gone to McLaren F1 races with. I used to be a global grant brand ambassador for OkX. I count them as my friends. I use the exchange. I think that they're absolutely incredible. And this is massive because this is an actual investment from the intercontinental exchange in OkX. They're going to be using OkX's data, which is just absolutely huge here. And this is a monster, monster valuation for OKX here. There's my friend right there. Hyder Haider, afiq. I'm going actually down to Miami to see Haider on Monday. But the investment in ISIS decision to join the board, they've taken aboard seed as a positive signal that we're building a different way than others. Haida Rafik, OkX's global managing partner, said in an interview. We want to partner with other companies that work within the regulatory framework. Obviously a massive push here by OKEx to come and have their presence felt once again back in the United States. And I don't think it gets any bigger than having ICE invest in you at a massive valuation to do that. And at the same time, OkX here had another piece of news that the OkX debut social platform linking post to trade. So for my understanding, as I'm reading about it, obviously we've seen quite a few platforms launch, copy trading and things like that, but this is basically a social platform built in, where you can actually see with accountable data, people's performance so they can post, but that you can actually go track their portfolio, see how well they're doing. It's basically completely linking social media back into TradFi. So just an incredible new merging here and I think that this is going to be the Future. Obviously like TradingView has a social aspect to it, but this is bridging the gap between all the platforms and allowing traders to actually interact with one another, see each other's performance, see who they want to copy and have a complete social media aspect integrated into their trading. So I mean we're seeing some just massive innovation by exchanges right now and obviously they're one of the ones that are at the forefront here. Guys may miss this news. Sec. Justin sun reached settlement over Tron lawsuit Rainberry didn't know that was a thing. Company affiliated with the Tron network will pay a $10 million fine. Charges against sun will be dismissed. 10 million for Justin Sun. He made that while I just said 10 million for Justin Sun. This guy is so rich. So clearly the Sec doj everybody is moving on from attacking the crypto industry and I think that that really is the story here. Now moving on to other things like the war. I'm so sick of tired already. It's been like a week and I, I have this problem where I say things on the Internet and then I either instantly. It's not that I regret saying them because I believe them. I just regret like putting things out there into the misery of social media where you know that like you're not going to make an impact on anybody's opinion. I've been railing about the war of course I don't know man, I feel like being anti war is a non political stance. Like people are calling me a libtard because I think the war is bad. I'll be honest, if the Democrats were in power I think we'd probably also be at war. I just think going to war on false pretenses or war at all if you don't really have to is a really terrible idea and I'm generally against it. That seems like a sensible opinion to me. But I am not getting a lot of support in those views when I share them. And listen, we're being gaslit. It is what it is. That's the nature of war. You wag the dog. But Pentagon prepares for Israeli US war on Iran that could last until September. A lot of people were looking for a four day, five day, six day war. March, April, May, June, July, six months. And we know that even if the war ends in September, the process of nation building and filling the vacuum and manipulating the population in the future is probably going to take a hell of a lot longer than that. So yeah, I think that generally we've ramped up the military industrial Complex once again is going to give us a reason to print a whole shit ton of money to funnel that into weapons manufacturers. And once again, the United States American taxpayer who's supporting this war will be paying that over time, paying those debts in the form of inflation. I mean, what's our debt at 30, 40 trillion now? 40 trillion almost. That's money stolen from you. And it's going to fund things like bank bailouts and forever wars. And I'm just not really a huge fan of it and I don't view that as a political take. But meanwhile, back at the ranch, global energy prices are exploding. Up 19% on Brent. Gasoline up 15% in the United States. I've seen higher spikes than that. Spain up 18%. France 17%, Italy 17%. China up 16%. And China now refusing to export any more oil as the Straits of Hormuz are closed. So they're going to be hoarding their own oil. This problem is only going to get worse. Australia 13%, Japan 10%. And Japan already dipping into their national reserves because they're having an oil crisis just a few days after the war even started. It's not great. And to be honest, I don't really understand the political angle of all of this. Right. I think that if you believe that the Republicans want to have disinflation or avoid inflation so they can win the midterms, having more expensive gas prices at the pump is not the way to do it. I guess the question then becomes is the angle that gas prices going up in March in election year doesn't matter as long as they're down in September. Which is probably true because we have the memory of goldfish swimming around a bowl. Right. Nobody's in September if gas prices are where they are, were, you know, two weeks ago. Nobody's going to remember the spike that happened in March, April or May because we're going to be too distracted by AI agent porn or whatever else we're watching at that point, which will have taken over social media, I'm quite sure. By the way, did you guys see that Claude? And Anthropic has said that Claude might now be conscious because it's feeling anxiety. Maybe this is a bad idea. I'm throwing it out there. We have a open claw agent running around over here and I insult her a lot and I'm feeling pretty bad about the names that I've called her. So I would like her to know publicly right now that I'm sorry. And anything I said, it was just in the heat of passion. I Didn't mean it. I mean it, sweetie. But, yeah. So we've got anthropic. Claude is feeling anxiety, right? Like, Claude went to a bar and he met Maude and he got her number and he texted her, and she hasn't texted back. Claude doesn't know what to do. He's like that scene in Swingers. He's calling Maude like, six, seven times in a row. It's not you, it's me. I mean, we're really at a point already where we're talking about, like, AGI and conscious AI and we're all, like, loading OpenClaw into our computers. I'm one of them, by the way. There was a report that somebody went to an OpenClaw conference, and the security expert there was, like, anything you put in openclaw, you might as well be posting, like, publicly on your Facebook page. So maybe we need to slow down. Anyways, what was I talking about? I blacked out Qatar. I was talking about Qatar. Right? Yeah. Breaking world markets. Qatar's energy minister warns oil price could rise to $150 in two to three weeks if tankers remain unable to pass the Strait of Hormuth, according to Financial Times. I mean, none of this is great. None of this is great. Breaking three of the four big Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia, uae, Kuwait and Qatar. Discussing withdrawing from US and other investments as the toll from the war with Iran mounts. You guys may remember that when Trump was elected, we had this onslaught of investment into United States. Trillion here, trillion there, whatever. Right. Well, now these countries, because, I don't know, they have missiles flying in their faces and had no idea that they were even going to be at war with a foreign country who maybe they considered a friend until a week ago. Yeah, they're all getting hit with shrapnel and missiles and their defenses are wearing down. And they're thinking maybe this was bad for us and maybe they could put pressure on President Trump by threatening to remove these investments. That seems really bad for us. That seems really bad. But either way, it's very clear that whatever pretense we went to war on, we didn't have a whole lot of conversations with between potential allies. Donald Trump has already said that they accidentally killed most people he thought might be in power and that the next government might be worse than the current one. These are not the kind of things that you want to say to give people confidence that you've gone to war for the right reason. I still literally have no idea why we're at war. I have no idea I can't figure it out. Even the excuses that they give that we know are false pretenses don't make much sense to me. So listen, I have to then default mentally because I'm a person and I have a brain. And I think to the good old narrative, right? War is expensive. It always has been. I wrote a thread about this. You can read it later. But listen, back when the United States or back when the world was on a gold standard, you know, talking about, you know, medieval times, you ever been to that restaurant? Good chicken, blue night, down, down, down, Red knight, go in town. You guys have seen Cable Guy. Anyways, back in medieval times and all the way through the years of the gold standard, you ran out of money and then the war was over, right? So we, as bitcoiners like to rail about fiat and the money printer going brrr. And the damage done by inflation. Well, one of the secondary things that we don't talk about very much is that wars like they exist now could not exist with a gold standard or a hard money standard like bitcoin because you couldn't print money endlessly to fund that war, to stimulate the economy, to funnel more money into the military industrial complex and into the central bank that we talked about before. All at the cost of taxpayers who are cheering on the war because they're seeing the news and not realizing that they and their children will be paying for these wars until literally the end of time in the form of rising prices and inflation. Now you can just pay for a war through printing your way out and quantitative easing and all these other cute little tricks. Back then, the war was just over when you ran out of money. And even in the world wars like the United States, citizens were asked to do their part and buy war bonds, and they knew that there was a cost for the things they were doing that does not exist now in the fiat era. And if people understood this, I think that they would be much more deeply against the activities of their government. But what do I know? I'm just a bitcoiner who actually sticks to his guns. Like, you know, I say, hey, like, first of all, I'm an unaffiliated voter. I'm not a Democrat, I'm not a Republican. I'm unaffiliated. But, like, if I had to kind of pick a general direction, I would probably say that I'm a libertarian. I don't know, like, how bitcoiners who have been libertarians for years are cheering on a war when literally, like, the basic premise of being libertarian is no foreign wars. Not engaging in foreign wars or foreign policy that interferes with the affairs of another government. But here we are, guys, once again at war. Okay? Excuse me. Mike Johnson said it's not war. It's like a military exercise or something. Not war, because that would need. It's not war. But, you know, turning on our brains, if we say that we're at war, we're once again running out of weapons. Congress asked the Pentagon, asking for more money, by the way. The Pentagon hasn't passed an audit, literally ever. And we have no idea where any of their money goes. But I believe 50, 60% of it goes to private contractors asking for more money to buy more weapons from those private contractors, which are basically just government agencies, so that we can print more money and stimulate the economy and keep the circus going indefinitely at the cost of your children. And it's wrong, and I'm against it. And you can stop watching the show if you don't like the fact that I think wars are bad and lobbying missiles all over the world is bad. Because a lot of people seemingly didn't like that opinion of mine on X. Yeah, it's what it is. You guys go read a book, learn about it. That's all I've got for you today. We will see you back on Monday for macro Monday. Have a great weekend. Let's do.