The Wolf Of All Streets – Episode Summary

Podcast: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Episode: Bitcoin Crashes While Stocks Rally! Is The Crypto Bull Run Over?
Date: November 3, 2025

Overview

In this Macro Monday episode, Scott Melker and his guests, Mike, Dave, and James, discuss the current uncorrelated downturn in Bitcoin compared to equities, the fading relevance of Bitcoin’s legendary “four-year cycle,” institutional and macro liquidity dynamics, and the underlying health of the crypto and stock markets. They address persistent OG Bitcoin selling, the significance of a liquidity crunch signaled by an unusually large tap of the Fed’s standing repo facility, and how impending regulatory and institutional changes may shape the future of crypto markets. In the midst of tech’s AI-fueled boom, the panel also explores macro shifts, central bank policymaking, and broader market bubbles.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Disconnection Between Crypto and Stocks

• Current Landscape: Bitcoin is correcting even as stocks (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) open strong, undermining assumptions about crypto’s correlation with risk assets.
• Market Sentiment: “There's a lot of confusion with why Bitcoin’s down while everything else seems bullish.” (A, 04:37)
• Crypto Outflows: Not just Bitcoin; Ethereum and altcoins are hit harder, with Ethereum seeing larger liquidations.
• Momentum: Dave notes the crypto community is overwhelmingly bearish and that momentum traders are driving the market down (B, 04:57).

2. Seasonality & The Four-Year Cycle: Diminishing Relevance

• Sarcasm on Seasonality: Scott jokes about October’s historically poor performance meaning November "has to be bad too"—a dig at simplistic cycle models (A, 01:10).
• Four-Year Cycle Critique: The hosts roundly dismiss the “four-year cycle” theory, likening it to the ludicrous ‘Super Bowl indicator’ (B, 10:29; D, 11:51).
  • “The four-year cycle is dead. Come on, it's about liquidity. That's all that matters. It's not about mining anymore. The institutions are here.” – James (D, 11:51)
• Data Overlooked: Down 4% in October is negligible and mostly narrative fodder (A, 11:35).

3. Liquidity Issues: Fed’s $50B Standing Repo Facility Tap

• What Happened: On Friday, the Fed’s standing repo facility was tapped for $50B, a substantial and sudden need for liquidity.
  • “This is not normal… Hello? There’s a liquidity issue in the markets. The stock market’s ignoring it.” – James (D, 12:42)
• Historical Context: The previous repo crisis in 2019 peaked at $80B, but today’s financial system is much larger, making $50B highly significant (D, 14:02).
• Why Isn’t the Media Covering? Mainstream media and stock traders seem oblivious, but “the credit market is absolutely paying attention.” (D, 55:02)
• Potential Causes: Government shutdown and month-end activity, but neither fully explains the magnitude (D, 12:45).

4. Current Macro Environment & Institutional Shifts

• Economy & Rates: Easing monetary policy, improving ISM, and strong earnings, but labor markets showing some weakness (C, 01:10).
• Commodity Divergence: Gold’s 53% annual outperformance against key commodities signals historical extremes, reminiscent of 2008 (C, 01:10).
• Bitcoin as Collateral: With “SAB 121” and regulatory hurdles repealed, big banks (JP Morgan, Citigroup) are preparing to offer bitcoin and ether custody and lending services.
  • “That's a big deal for retail and high net worth investors who actually have assets.” – James (D, 31:56)
  • Utility: “The wealthy demographic…don’t sell their assets, they buy, they borrow against them until they die and pass them on to their kids.” (D, 31:56)

5. Institutional vs. Retail Demand in Crypto

• ETF Inflows: BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF showing weak inflows, Solana’s stronger, but retail remains largely on the sidelines (A, 28:53).
• “Adoption Split”: Uncertainty about who’s buying—“I don’t think those who are digging deeply into it have confusion,” but data shows weak retail involvement (A, 28:53).

6. Massive AI and Infrastructure Deals Still Driving Tech

• Big Announcements: Microsoft, Amazon, and AWS are signing multi-billion dollar, multi-year partnerships supporting AI compute and infrastructure.
  • Scott: “We are now receiving daily multi billion dollar AI deals.” (A, 40:14)
• AI = Infrastructure Revolution: The panel compares today’s power and compute shortages for AI to the oversupplied but underutilized state of fiber during the dot-com bubble.
  • “We are way under capacity in terms of electric grids in every country...we are in the middle of a revolution.” – Dave (B, 59:24)
• Bitcoin’s Role: Miners particularly need cheap power; the intersection of energy, crypto, and AI is a major macro trend.

7. Market Structure: Liquidations & Forced Selling

• Recent Market Events: Crypto market saw $20B in liquidations on October 10 (“october 10th”), reminiscent of forced deleveraging events of past cycles (B, 22:25).
  • “When forced liquidations end, that’s a bottom. When they begin, that’s trouble.” – Dave (B, 27:59)
• OG Bitcoin Selling: Over 400,000 long-term coins were sold in October alone but Bitcoin remained above $100k—a testament to market resilience (D, 11:51; 51:12).
  • “OGs are getting their estates and their boats and their planes…But the fact that it's held up above here…” (D, 51:22)

8. Lingering Systemic Stresses: The Threat of Drawdown

• Diminishing Returns to Fed Easing: Rate cuts aren’t creating the same risk-asset rallies; inflation sticky (C, 54:52).
  • “I've never been more frightful in the markets. Now just after what gold did this year when it wasn't supposed to do…” (C, 52:40)
• Repricing Risk: Hosts express concern that the next real crisis (liquidity, significant correction) will hit before a fresh round of monetary stimulus (C, 52:40; 54:52).
• Political Influence: Trump’s openly pro-Bitcoin stance, former Treasury Secretary endorsement, and regulatory changes could further alter the crypto landscape (A, 46:02).

9. Long-Term View: Structural Shift and Market Maturity

• Bitcoin’s Distribution: The transition from cypherpunk core to broad institutional/light retail user base is messy, but inevitable for growth.
  • “Bitcoin needs to move from the cypher punks to the broad financial system for it to achieve what it needs to achieve…we have no idea when it's going to end.” – Dave (B, 45:20)
• Prime Brokerage Is Coming: As accounting rules change, bitcoin/crypto will become fundamental collateral for global finance.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Cycle Narratives:

  • “When you start talking about seasonality in bitcoin and four year cycles…It's so far from statistically significant, it doesn't make any freaking [sense].” – Dave, (B, 10:29)
  • “The four year cycle is dead…It's about liquidity. The institutions are here.” – James, (D, 11:51)

• On Market Liquidity:

  • “The standing repo facility was tapped for $50 billion on Friday. And nobody’s talking about it…This is not normal.” – James, (D, 12:42)
  • “When you look at this, it's not remotely surprising that ethereum has lost 4,000. If Ethereum 4,000 is the same importance as Bitcoin, hundred thousand, Ethereum's lost it…” – Dave, (B, 27:01)

• On Institutions and the Future:

  • “When Bitcoin is accepted as collateral…you can have a true financing business…This is a long term thing. It's not happening in 2025…[but] it's inevitable.” – Dave, (B, 39:50)
  • “They want to keep driving the economy by allowing Bitcoin to be used as collateral. Once that happens, that's a big deal…” – James, (D, 31:56)

• On Macro Stress:

  • “I've never been more frightful in the markets. Now just after what gold did this year when it wasn't supposed to…Stand back and say thank you for all those great years and get out.” – Mike, (C, 52:40)

• On Political Winds:

  • “The Treasury Secretary of the United States basically go out being pro bitcoin…People are going to look at this in a year, two years, three years, and they're going to say, Hold on. So…control the economy are bullish in asset stand to benefit.” – Dave, (B, 44:12)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:01–04:37 — Setting the stage: Bitcoin correcting, stocks up, confusion on correlations
• 04:57–11:51 — Crypto market structure: liquidations, commentary on the four-year cycle
• 11:51–18:59 — Liquidity crisis: standing repo facility, macro warning signs
• 21:50–28:53 — Forced liquidations, prior crypto deleveraging, market psychology
• 28:53–34:18 — Institutional trends: Banks embracing Bitcoin, regulatory shifts
• 34:59–39:48 — Bitcoin as collateral, analogies to the evolution of prime brokerage
• 40:14–43:55 — AI boom: tech infrastructure, compute shortage, links to macro
• 52:40–54:52 — Macro risk: market fragility, diminishing returns to easing
• 54:52–59:24 — Systemic change: structural maturity, new normal post-COVID/QE

Takeaways

• Crypto’s Correlation to Equities is Breaking Down: Bitcoin is now trading more independently, and its near-term price action says more about crypto-native sentiment and liquidity than macroeconomic factors.
• Liquidity is Everything: Systemic stresses—evidenced by Fed facility demand—signal fragility, regardless of stock market optimism.
• Institutionalization is Far from Over: Regulatory change and plumbing upgrades are just beginning; widespread adoption is a gradual, not instant, process.
• Beware Narrative Simplicity: Seasonality, “cycles,” and armchair indicators are of little predictive value; pay closer attention to liquidity and structural shifts.
• AI, Tech, and Compute are Today’s Infrastructure Revolution: Unlike in 2000, capacity now lags demand—affecting everything from Bitcoin miners to big tech.
• Risk Persists: The panel is divided on outlook, but all signal caution: “Sometimes you just say thank you, nice to get out and have had a great year.”

In the Panel’s Own Words

• Dave (on market health):
  "When people start selling irrespective of price, markets go down and they go down hard. When forced liquidations end, that's a bottom. When forced liquidations begin, that's trouble." (27:59)
• James (on OG selling):
  "OGs are getting their estates and their boats and their planes...But the fact that it's held up above here" (51:22)
• Mike (on macro risks):
  "I've never been more frightful in the markets. Now just after what gold did this year when it wasn't supposed to do..." (52:40)

For More

For deep dives on policy, crypto as institutional collateral, and macro liquidity, check out Scott’s interview with Michael Saylor from Money2020.
Macro Monday returns next week for another episode.