← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:02]
A
Bitcoin continues to correct while stocks are up pre market. Bitcoin not looking particularly correlated to risk at the moment seems to be trading on its own. But it's a discussion definitely worth having. Many believing that the crypto top is in because we had a red October. God forbid it should have been impossible it can't possibly happen mean that of course November, which is historically the best month for crypto probably has to be bad as well. That is sarcasm for those who do do not understand it. We're going to talk about that and everything happening in the macro today on my Macro Monday with Mike, Dave and James. Let's go.
- [00:39]
B
That's dope.
- [00:54]
A
Good morning everybody and welcome to Macro Monday. Before we get started please subscribe to the channel. Hit that like button. I'm going to bring on Mike and Dave. We're waiting for James to appear but didn't want to wait any longer. Get it started. Good morning gentlemen. Mike Morning morning meeting. Where are we at?
- [01:11]
C
Was kind of neutral. More from Anna today. She pointed out some key things that there's the maximum drag from trades uncertainties entering the rear view mirror this quarter easing of monetary policy should be transmitted to the ism and kicking in a little bit. So my sense from her was getting a little bit bullish on the economy without directly saying it showed that unemployment likely is picking up to around 4.35% in October. If we could do the data which we can but that's her estimate and she's non farm payroll is probably running around 50,000 so unemployment somewhat weaker she so it's not isms are coming out and manufacturing to show slight improvement and services to show improvement. So kind of neutral to upside there. Our equity strategist Chris Kane come in and point the stock market's doing just fine as we know that uptick's firmly intact. RSI is only 61. It's not overbought. 40% of S P stocks are above the 50 day moving average. That's about a problem. Only 40% earnings are very very strong. So 70% reporting running 13% that's quite strong Broad based earnings and sales strength only Energy and stables are not doing well with earnings and their day space because they're basically flat and the beat rates are well exceeding pandemic expectations. Erica Idleberg reiterated what Ira's been saying. She came in for interest rates today pointing out near term less likely to see the bull steepening due to Fed Fed chairman's pause. She thinks that he intentionally wanted to prepare the market for a skip meeting A skip rate cut meeting 10 year rate yield to remain range bound. And Audrey chilled. Freeman didn't. Our equities FX strategist didn't have too much to say. There's not strong conviction on the dollar anymore and I just pointed out the increasing inordinate burden for the stock market. They keep going up for things like industrial metals to stay elevated. They're up a little bit less than the stock market this year. But Bloomberg commodity index same thing up a little bit less than the stock market this year. But it's the underpinnings that I find frightening and that is gold leading everything up 53% stock market and the world's most industrial commodity had kind of leading the losers down almost 15%. That disparity running almost 70% now is the greatest since 2008 which was the great and actually it's the greatest in history on annual basis. And then I tilt it over and just point out what I'm watching very closely. It's this bitcoin to gold ratio. I'm fearful now that it might break below that 25x support. It hit there once it bounced. Our model shows it's weaker. And then you just look at volatility in the stock market has to stay low that that thing usually tips lower. So watching that ratio closely, to me gold's just way overbought here. It's not a you know overweight longs here typically do not well at 4,000 but it's happy. And then I just point out finally one thing that's really a good indication what's happening in commodities is what happened with the Mighty Soybean US soybeans just a couple months ago. We're at a 20% discount to Chinese, I'm sorry, not to Brazilian soybeans which was just irrational for China not to buy them. But I think they did them just to kind of, you know, dig to Mr. Trump. But now that they've come around to buying soybeans at a really cheap price and everybody thinks it's a great deal, it's just rational, it's just well played on their part. It's is what I'd like to point out back to you.
- [04:37]
A
Yeah, here we are. We've got obviously this article Stock market today dow S&P 500 Nasdaq futures rise as November kicks off with earnings AI Fed in focus. A lot of people seemingly Dave, confused by why we could possibly be down on bitcoin down while we're trading this range when everything seems to continue to be bullish.
- [04:57]
B
Well Two things. I mean, first of all, Ethereum and the rest of crypto are down more than bitcoin. And in fact, Ethereum had more liquidated over the last day than bitcoin did again, which is telling you something. I think that the chatter and the crypto community writ large is overwhelmingly bearish on the guy people who actually trade and in hope. Oh my God, what's happening in my bags? Panic for the ones that don't. Now what do I mean by that? I mean there are people who have their position, they're sitting there, they're not doing anything. That is hopefully cheerleading. You know, frankly I, I'd say I would be in that capes because I'm not buying or selling anything. I'm hardly cheerleading. But you know, whatever. But there are people who effectively go on X all day long to try to pump their bags and pray to the, to the gods. Now the traders are the ones who are momentum chasers. And in crypto the momentum is down. And so when you see a correction like this on a Sunday, it's telling you that the crypto community is bearish. And I think that's accurate. And I think that the assets that are as you get farther from bitcoin, it gets worse. And so that's sort of that, that sort of, you know, I don't know what the right word for it, that kind of market structure. When you see bitcoin dropping and. But you see everything dropping and you seeing bitcoin dropping less and liquidations more is telling you that that hot ball of money said I was expecting a US China deal to follow through on the weekend. It didn't crap. And you start seeing their stops getting triggered. And so boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And that's what you're seeing. I don't think you're seeing anything more than that. I also want to point out over the weekend I had a few arguments with people who are. I'm using the word cheerleader because it's really funny. You had a great conversation and David Katz, or does he go by Joel.
- [06:55]
A
Katz or David Katz from David, Joel Katz, David Schwartz. I don't know what it is. He's the former, I guess former CTO of Ripple now word.
- [07:02]
B
But he's a guy, so he had a really good post to you which literally, apart from the conclusion, I agree with 100% and that's snarky, but not really because it depends on how you're valuing assets. If you value an asset based upon its speculative ability to potentially capture an enormous total addressable market at some point and you want to buy it because of animal spirits. That's cool. And that is what most of crypto is. And let's face it, I mean most things in crypto don't. There's no economic method that you can justify the valuation of virtually anything other than bitcoin. Right now. Everything is based on hope. And so my response is sure. So now let's look at this and understand where's the more likelihood of things to actually grow into that valuation and what you see, I think, and this makes you sound a lot like a bitcoin maxi. So God, I hate it because I'm not. I think there's enormous possibility for infrastructure in crypto. But there's only one crypto that has the, and this is an argument we have all the time, there's only one that has the network effects and characteristics to be value or a denominator for money, and that's bitcoin. And so when you start seeing the Chile cheerleaders for XRP effectively making the same case that the lead cheerleaders for ether make, that it could be money in and replace Bitcoin, then you know that your investment thesis is in trouble. And I think that that's happening throughout crypto. And so when people start selling, they sell everything and it becomes a snowball. And I do think that there is a revaluation going on at the same time, gold is the hot bowl of money that in the CFD market is getting. It's getting long in the tooth for it not to have moved. And some of that money is going to start moving someplace. I don't know where it's going to move. It could move to fx, it could move to the stock market, it could move back into crypto, or it could just sit there and people could be despondent everywh anywhere. But gold feels like it's in a range, right? 4,000 seems to be one of those levels like Bitcoin 100,000 where it's likely to sit around that range for a while simply because the bid from central banks is when it happens, when they have money to put in. And I think they place their bets for now. Unless China is going to continue to buy. That's the one casualty potentially of the US China trade deal. I'd be curious what Mike thinks about that because if we think that China has been buying gold partially to stick it in the eye of the US instead of Treasuries, if we really do end up with a trade deal and peace and Harmony for a while. Then that dynamic could reverse. So that that would lead to your case. But I think a lot of that is going on. Most importantly when you're looking at a weekend move, I mean you're literally looking at the crypto speculators moving, not who are buying and who are buying. People you would expect to start coming in, dribbling over the next, you know, whatever, you know, as we approach towards the real end of the year is generally before Christmas. Right. Not a lot happens in that last week, although, you know, it's generally a lot of window dressing but not a lot of real money flows. Anyway, so that's my thoughts. James, welcome.
- [10:10]
A
James, you can't. Yeah, you got in kind of late. I mean I just want to show this really quickly because Dave, this is also a catalyst for a lot of those conversations. But obviously bitcoin seasonality. October down 3.69% apparently is the end times. We have reached the apocalypse.
- [10:27]
D
Look all over.
- [10:28]
A
There's no chance.
- [10:29]
B
Even though I tell one story again. I mean I want James to. I. James is plenty to say. But look, I am so tired of people using some small number of integer data points to. To make decisions. All I will point out is the. One of the most absolutely with way more data points than any of this classic indicators of stock market performance was the super bowl indicator. It worked way over 90% for years. We're talking decades. Which meant that if an old NFL team won the super bowl as opposed to a team that had its origin in the American Football League, that year was going to be a good year. And if the American Football League team won, it was going to be a terrible year. It worked over 90% of the time for three decades. Is there any human being who believe it makes makes sense. So when you start talking about seasonality in bitcoin and four year cycles in bitcoin, you wonder why I treat it with such derision. It's because it's so far from statistically significant, it doesn't make any freaking.
- [11:32]
D
The four year cycles we're down almost 4% though.
- [11:35]
C
4%.
- [11:36]
A
4% in a month. Big deal. That's sarcasm, guys. I just want it gave me an opportunity to make hunt for red October jokes for all the people our age. So that was very satisfying. I was actually cheering for slight red just so I could go full Sean Connery. James, you're up.
- [11:52]
D
Let's face it, the four year cycle is dead. Come on, it's about liquidity. That's all it matters. It's not about it's not about mining anymore. The institutions are here. It's about liquidity. And so what we have seen is hundreds of thousands of bitcoin being sold by ogs for the last month after month after month. And I read somewhere that. And I, I have not confirmed this. So if somebody please confirm it. If you guys know this. I read over 400000 long term coins were sold in October alone and we stayed above a hundred thousand dollars in bitcoin. So that's pretty significant. But let's look something that. No, I, I am, I'm not seeing anybody talk about. And I can't understand why there's not a headline anywhere in, in Bloomberg about this. And Mike, maybe you want to tease somebody up, but Scott, can you share my screen?
- [12:41]
B
Yep.
- [12:43]
D
The, the standing repo facility was, was tapped for $50 billion on Friday. And nobody's talking about it. Like this is not a normal. A little bit at month end maybe, but this is. And more than half of this was in the afternoon or all like kind of after our session. This is not normal. Somebody needed liquidity, massive amounts. And so what happened? The sofa rate jumped, which we got updated Monday morning because the government's closed all weekend to over 35 basis points above fed funds. Like this is just not normal. Like this is. Hello. Like there's, there's a liquidity issue in the markets. The stock market's ignoring it. The, the, you know, the mainstream media is ignoring it. And I don't understand why unless you've got a perfectly good explanation. Mike, I've got two reasons I can see. One of them is a government shutdown is starving the economy of dollars and somebody needs dollars badly. Number two, it's month end activity and that's normal. But month act, month and activity would have started showing up before this. And there's, there's, this is, this is just a kind of a red, you know, flag that we ought to be paying a little bit of attention to. And it seems like nobody even cares.
- [13:57]
A
That's fine on that chart is so big that it like made all the other lines pumps on the chart disappear.
- [14:03]
D
I mean, I mean, you've got to be kidding me. Look at that. $50 billion. That's a lot. And back in 2019 when we had the, when we had the repo crisis. I'm not going to go into the whole thing. I wrote all about it this weekend. If you guys, if, if the listeners want to hear about and really understand what happened back then, I wrote all about it. But $80 billion was the, was the most that was tapped in the stress of 2019 when the Fed turned around, did QE literally overnight. And the Kiwi. Not Kiwi. I explained all of it, but yeah, that now of course there are more dollars. The, the GDP is a lot higher, bank reserves are a lot higher. So 50 maybe is the equivalent of 30 or 40 back then, but still this is significant. And I'd love to hear if Mike has a great explanation because you were a bond trader, Mike. You've seen this stuff before and this is not normal, in my opinion.
- [14:56]
C
Mike, as we speak, I'm, I'm texting my colleague. I'm trying to ask my colleague right next to me, Jonathan Levin, who digs into much further. I, I hadn't really seen that. So pray, thanks because nobody's talking about it.
- [15:09]
D
It's crazy.
- [15:09]
A
Yeah, look like if you zoom back to Covid, that has to be the biggest since those coveted days.
- [15:14]
D
You know the, the $50 billion. Yeah, yeah, I've got it. I mean, I, and that was in my newsletter, actually. Let me see if I can find in the, in the chart here that, that shows it. I mean, this, it is significant.
- [15:28]
C
Well, but the key things about it is like, it's not showing up in any other market except maybe cryptos. Certainly millennials don't care. Stock market doesn't care. Maybe the crypto's on top of it. I don't know.
- [15:39]
D
Here it is, Here it is, Scott. It goes back to like 2018. So here, here are the levels. This is, this is a 2019 repo crisis right here. When in September 19th or September 17th, it jumped up to this level, which was 75 billion. Okay. That was a repo crisis. And then all this activity happened while the Fed was adding liquidity to the System. Then in 2020, in March, it jumped up to 135 billion. Of course, we all know what happened then, but that's, that's what we're looking at. So let me see if I can find the, the repo borrowing. The total repo. Sorry.
- [16:21]
A
Interest. See what happens this week. Right, because you can see that it states to sustained high in those moments of crisis.
- [16:31]
D
Exactly, exactly. So here's the total assets, the bet of the Fed.
- [16:36]
C
Let's.
- [16:36]
D
And this is what I, this is what I keep talking about, is that when you look back at the. Oh, this isn't it. Sorry. I'm going to pull up a different one. Let me pull up a different chart here, fellas, and you can see exactly what I'm talking about. And this, this will show. This kind of just lays it out perfectly for you right here. All right, let me pull up this one.
- [16:59]
A
Eager, ready and willing. We're ready to view this Bloomberg chart. How much is that? How much does that Bloomberg terminal cost you a month, buddy?
- [17:07]
C
It's a lot.
- [17:08]
D
It's like 20. It's like $25,000 a year. So I think that's why, that's, that's the reason I had a hedge fund just so I can have Bloomberg. So here's the repo crisis. This is the expansion of, of this, the expansion of the Fed balance sheet. This is when they were out there buying Treasuries, okay. T bills and Treasuries right here. And they never took them off the sheet. And this just exploded higher once we got into covet. But this started before COVID This is the end of 2019, the expansion of the bouncy. So I'm expecting this to come like something to happen here. And Mike, if your colleague has a great as some sort of explanation. I know it's month end and there's, there's some activity there, but this is just. I cannot believe that nobody's talking about this. It's kind of blowing my mind.
- [17:53]
A
Mike, did you get any color there?
- [17:55]
C
Not yet, but I even to. I have to. Jonathan's looking into it now.
- [18:00]
D
Right. I mean, it's interesting. Is it? Nobody's talking. Maybe part of it though, Mike, is that the Fed doesn't announce this. They only announced that there was like 20 or so. 26 or so I think on Friday because they didn't include the, the afternoon session in their material. They just went home. You know, it's like, well, they're, they're in government employees are done. Okay, wrap it up. Everything good. Okay, let's go home. And then the afternoon session happens and you have $50 billion total. And nobody, nobody saw it. And I mean, I saw it on Friday. I was actually, this. What was happening is I was writing my newsletter about what happened. I was going to write about what happened in 2019, the repo crisis. And I pulled this up and it didn't match what was in the, on the, on Fred. And I was like, wait, what is going on here? This doesn't match. And I realized in the middle of writing my newsletter on Saturday that holy crap, it was tapped for another 20 plus billion dollars. And nobody, not $30 billion, nobody knows it was mind blowing.
- [19:00]
C
So. Well, by the end of the day when you have a better answer, if the stock market follows what's happening in cryptos. That's pretty significant. But again as you mentioned, it was the end of the month and also Halloween happened on the Friday and that's.
- [19:14]
D
Kind of a government shutdown.
- [19:16]
C
Yeah, government shutdown. So there's a lot of silly stuff that's happening here, but you dig into it closer than I do that kind of stuff with the Fed. I look at the macro, I see what's happening is I don't remember the last time we came in on a day like this and bitcoin decisively dropped below the 200 day moving average. Now we saw microstrategy strategy do that a few months ago and it's that time of year that I look at it as. Okay, well it's been a great year and Dave pointed out there was just some lot of silly stuff in markets, people pumping their bags and everything. And now we're, you know, we're towards the end. I look at that Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index, it has like 5% left of gains on the year and, and actually 4% if you have factoring what's happening with some of the other markets and it was up 30% for a while. And I think my thought is the risks are we hitting stops and cryptos are starting to do it. And remember what was the inflection point? Sometimes everything changes on one day. It was October 10th, 3% down in the stock market. Okay, no big deal. That stuff used to happen one day. Now what happened that weekend, we all saw the flush. I think that shifted the mentality. I think everybody realized, okay, my overweight long bot is probably got a problem. And now we have to have something to shift it back the other way. But it's not the time of year to do that. You see the iteration I'm worried about here is if we just continue on this path this time of year, it typically will accelerate into the new year versus what happened last year. Run an uptrend and that accelerated. It's not, it's, it's, I'm just worried about the lose, lose. And then all my indications are okay, volatility is very low stuff. I see it's going in commodities. I, like I said I have to use the word frightening on Halloween. This has never happened. You've just never seen gold go up this and crude oil going down this much. And then so to me that's the macro. And, but the good news is I still think it's okay. So bitcoins below, it's 100 day, it's, it's 200 day. Move range. We all know hundred a hundred thousand is a good support. I fully expect we're going to get a chance to buy bitcoin in five figures this year. I still fully chance we're going to get a chance to sell Vix above 20. Now we had that already and bitcoin still kind of maybe it's the leading indicator. So here okay, so we get to underground it's still you know, pretty significant level, still significant asset but it's all the other ones I'm worried about. The good news is I also look at the things I'm trying well but it's like things like the things that I know I, I love when Dave expresses his animosity for things is it's he's well thought out. You really helped me. It's the thing I've been so looking at forever. And you know what? You're annoying because I'm finally feeling better About Dogecoin worth 27 billion dollars it was with 60 billion a year ago when it goes down to 27 and no zeros behind it and I'll feel better about the market but it's going that way.
- [21:50]
B
Well, I think that there's a couple of nuggets in there Mike, where you and I, we're close. So forget price prediction for a second. I mean bitcoin's holding up better than the rest of crypto but there's undeniably a huge momentum chasing component of the crypto market. And so when it does start going down, it starts going down. But I don't want to remind people of a bunch of things. So first of all, October 10th is a massive deal. I made the point at the time, and I'll stick to it that we won't know what's going to happen from October 10th until the bodies all float to the top of the pool because.
- [22:25]
A
We'Re talking about who blew up on the mass liquidation event. For those who don't know what October 10th means, that was the day that we had about 20 billion in liquidations.
- [22:33]
B
Right. So the point was if you could do an it's forensic, you know, research in terms of what happens in markets. So 2022 we had gotten in 2021 the market got ahead of itself. And any we by the way since then haven't even come close. Just to put this in perspective, Bitcoin in 2021 got to a level of euphoria divided by its/rate six and a half times where our all time high was this year. I mean it's just, it was just dramatically higher, you know, 69,000 then the network was one sixth the size. So it's like three times, you know, price. So if for some euphoria, we never did, never got to that point. We had borrow rates that were just insane. People were just killing themselves. To be able to go long on a, on a leverage basis, that was a bitcoin in all coins. It was even crazier. Some of the stuff that happened in defi summer before that it was just insane movements. This rally that happened post Trump's election hasn't even scratched the surface of that. So we've seen, we've gone, we're literally since we're now that's why one of the parts of the four year cycle being dead. It's obvious we have gone five years since we've had anything close to that euphoria. But what propped the bubble in 2022? There were, there was a confluence of, of three things that happened. The three things that happened and I'm going to get to the real, the real key one last. The first thing that happened was grayscale. The, you know, grayscale not getting an ETF and people waiting on it and the discount people were like, oh, so cheap, I should buy it. When it's a 20% discount. And then it went to 30, that's like, oh my God, it's even cheaper. And then it went to, you know, 40 and then it went to 50. And when you get discounts that big on huge financial pools, there were hedge funds that were betting on that thing that were just getting, that were getting crushed. And then the question becomes, well, will they be able to survive that being crushed or are they too over leveraged? And the answer was because of the second thing that happened was the borrow market for bitcoin and other assets dried up. And when that market dried up, the interest rates that people who were buying, you know, who were giving interest rates to people and sorry for your ptsd, Scott. The Voyagers, the Celsiuses, the Blockfi's, they weren't laughed. And so some went into prop trading, some decided to extend stupid loans. But all of that happened and then we had Luna, which was the pin popped a bubble. Luna created a massive event that triggered losses in the financial system that people then said, okay, I need my money. And all of a sudden the people who they thought had their money didn't have their money. And we saw wave after wave of forced liquidations. That's important because when people start selling irrespective of price, markets Go down and they go down hard. And then of course in November, guess what, favorite time of year In November of 22 we had the whole deal where FTT as collateral shouldn't have been collateral because it should have. The FTX should never have had been leveraged. And that's why Sam's in prison. People always forget that FTT started dropping and people realized FTX was insolvent if they, because they had stolen all the money that, that replaced it with SAM coins. And then boom, boom, boom. We had waves of liquidations that peaked at a crescendo down to 16,000 or thereabouts on Bitcoin with the rest of the markets getting crushed. So the question from October 10th if you're smart is okay, we have this market that never had quite as much euphoria. It didn't seem that we had people buying, borrowing like crazy. But there's still a possibility that there's forced liquidations that come out when people float to the top of the pool. Right. You throw a depth charge in and someone dies. Is that the, the shadow of that this weekend? I don't know. I have no idea. Until we know who or what is selling, we don't know. And honestly we're getting farther from it that I kind of think this is the last gasps that whatever happens over the next few weeks there shouldn't be anything major. But these are the fault lines that happen in systems. And so when you look at this, it's not remotely surprising that ethereum has lost 4,000. You know, if Ethereum 4,000 is the same importance as Bitcoin, hundred thousand, Ethereum's lost it rather, rather solid and repeatedly.
- [26:59]
A
I'm not sure they're equivalent but yeah, that makes sense.
- [27:01]
B
But the point is we don't know what's collateralizing what in the system anymore. We don't within we do. All we know is that there's institutions buying bitcoin. Tom Lee is holding up his institutional flag for institutions to buy Ethereum. We see institutions now moving into Solana. The xrp, you know, cheerleading community is full throated yelling about how institutions are about to come in when that ETF goes live. There's still no Doge etf, Mike, so you don't have to worry about that yet. But you know, who the hell knows? But that's where, where the rubber meets the road here.
- [27:32]
A
But what we do know is that idiots are still getting liquidated.
- [27:36]
B
Well sure, and, but if you look at, if you dig under, you get.
- [27:40]
A
Rid of all the leverage.
- [27:41]
B
No, no, but but what's important is if you look at that right now, of that the 24 hours shipped 426.
- [27:50]
A
Million in 24 hours, right?
- [27:51]
B
Of that 426 million, Bitcoin was a hundred million of it.
- [27:56]
A
Right. So it's still large liquidation.
- [27:59]
B
It was east was the biggest and then others is, is, is, you know, it's Solana etc, there's lots of. So what you're hearing, what you're seeing is this is not bitcoin led. It's the same October 10th was not Bitcoin led either. And so, you know, all I could say is when you people who like to intuit from short term market movements, what's happening on a macro level, they tend to end up looking really dumb, you know, weeks or months later. At least be smart enough to say you don't know what's causing it because it is conceivable that there are forced liquidations happening. And when forced liquidations end, that's a bottom. When forced liquidations begin, that's trouble and you're going to have to reset to a new lower level. And you just don't know. And I'll be blunt, I don't know. It feels from a sentiment point of view much more like a bottom, at least in bitcoin.
- [28:53]
A
Oh, people are very, I mean like I said repeatedly last week, S and P made an all time high on the same day that the S and P hit fear on the Fear and Greed index. It's completely, completely incongruous. It makes absolutely no sense. I want to ask James. Your newsletter about a week ago was about big banks embrace bitcoin. So obviously I think it's worth having an institutional conversation. I just find it very interesting Right now we have a lot of confusion as to where the bitcoin demand is coming from. I don't think those who are digging deeply into it have confusion. But over the past three weeks BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF has seen less than 0.6k Bitcoin and weekly net inflows. Interestingly, there was a ton into the Solana one, but you can see it's been kind of flat there. And along the same lines, retail investors, the biggest absentees of this cycle. So actually, interestingly a lot of data showing that retail has not really been participating. And if we use the ETFs as a gauge for institutions, which I don't necessarily because I think that's primary retail buying it in their investment and retirement accounts, but it seems like we're definitely having sort of A very clear split on who's adopting Bitcoin right now and who's interested in it. I mean, I'll bring up your newsletter again, but pretty.
- [30:06]
D
Yeah, I mean so the, in what big banks? Not that this is not institutions buying, this is big banks opening up the doors for retail to buy. And so this is what we've been waiting for.
- [30:19]
A
Plumbing.
- [30:19]
D
Yeah, yeah, the plumbing to be there that they have to, they have to embrace it as a product first. And so there a few things have to happen. The first thing that had to happen is we had to get, you know, S121 overturned fully which happened when we got the new administration. And so the second thing we had to happen is, you know, is the full repeal of the, the, this thing called chokepoint 2.0 which was. There's nothing signed in legislation. It was just Elizabeth Warren and her anti crypto army that were going after banks and, and threatening them and financial institutions if they did had any activity with, with crypto and bitcoin companies and, and service providers. Which is that, that was something that we experienced as we've talked about many times before here in my hedge fund, you know, and that was real. And so that's gone. SAB 121 was re. Was not just overturned but it was basically eviscerate. It was eviscerated. And so what happens now is that banks don't have to hold crypto as a liability on their balance sheet. And when they did that it totally screwed up all of their leverage ratios and so they couldn't do it basically. And now that that's gone, you've got banks that are entering the space saying look, BlackRock's making a ton of money with their ETF. We want a part of this.
- [31:48]
A
And Coinbase is custodying them all. And Coinbase, when that would have been, that would have been BNY Mellon and State street and etc. Etc.
- [31:56]
C
Right.
- [31:57]
D
And so when you now you have JP Morgan and now Citigroup announced this morning they want to enter the space. You're gonna have Wells Fargo and the other big guys come in and they're saying we want a part of this. We're gonna, we're gonna offer crypto access, crypto custody, bitcoin custody and the ability to borrow against in specific Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral. And once that happens, that's a big deal for, for retail and high net worth investors who actually have assets. You know, this is not for little retail mom and pops. This is for people who actually have Assets are obviously for the top 10% that they're going after and the, the, you know, the demographic that's been driving the economy. But that's what they want to do. They want to keep driving the economy by allowing Bitcoin to be used as, as collateral. Okay, so what happens then? Well, now we have this function of if this goes far and wide, which is not going to happen overnight. Part of the problem with crypto Twitter in bitcoin Twitter is like, oh, this has been passed. Why is nothing changing? Well, it takes, this stuff takes so much time. This is not like you don't just log on to your, your Kraken account, you know, buy something or log into, you know, your, your Binance account, do some sort of 101 perp leverage trade and get paid overnight. Like this takes so much time. But what it is, is it's solid footing long term for this type of demographic to borrow against and not sell their assets. It's such a big deal. This is the, you know, buy, borrow and then die. You don't, you, this is the, this is what the, the wealthy demographic does. They, they don't sell their assets, they buy them. They go up in value, meaning that the US Dollar and other fiat currencies go down in value value against them. They borrow against them until they die and then they pass them on to their kids and then the kids get a new, new cost basis for them that they don't have to pay taxes on and they're sitting on an asset that they're, that you know, they don't have to sell, they can borrow against. This is the way it works. And you know, this kind of opens the door to that as Bitcoin and Ethereum. But you know, in my opinion, Bitcoin in particular being a key asset that they can use to, to hold as collateral and borrow against.
- [34:19]
A
So I think this is going to arb away. Also the high rates that we have in crypto native lending right now. I think, you know, with Bitcoin you're generally paying 8 to 12%, you know, depending on market conditions on the let ins and the other platforms that exist for this, Abra, et cetera, which are all wonderful. But when you're doing securities lending with JP Morgan, even with the current interest rates, it's usually like 4.55%. So if that's just wrapped or blended into your normal securities account, you're going to be paying a much lower interest rate and then that's going to come down everywhere and it's going to become the hunt for a better, you know, better interest rates. And I think it's going to just help the entire market and it's going to be absolutely massive.
- [34:59]
D
And they're cussing it, they have it. And so if you, if you fall below, you don't make payments, you default. Well, they've got the collateral right there that they can sell against whatever you're loaning collateral. They've got it right there. It's not like they have to go in. Houses are terrible collateral in that, that they're, they're illiquid. They, they take time to, you know, to unload. We saw this in the great financial crisis where all these banks were saddled with these houses. They didn't want to own real estate and they were just dumping them on the market because they didn't want to deal with it. Bitcoin, you have it in, in a, in a, an escrow account, basically, that's in, that's in custody there. And boom, it's there. It. They need to have it. They have, they have instant liquidity 24 7. 24 7. It's like pristine collateral.
- [35:45]
A
I mean, you can see even, even in the worst collapses we've seen in crypto, even if it's a small part of the market, if you actually look at defi and smart contract liquidations and lending, it's hummed along, never an issue on any of the major platforms because the collateral is there. If you don't make your margin call, they keep your collateral and sell it. Very easy.
- [36:04]
B
Right? Yeah. You need to understand that 2008, this is the 1988 scenario. Right. You know, and yes, we can talk about it from a personal point of view. There's, there's two things. There's. When you talk about that mortgage now imagine a world where people have appreciated, you know, bitcoin or whatever, and they use that for their down payment or a portion of the loan. And the house loan to value is another portion of the loan. Banks are going to be a hell. Let's say they get 50% loan to value against Bitcoin. That's probably around where you, where you'll get it. Imagine that. So now you've gone from, well, but, but let's say you get 50 loan to value and let's say you required a 20 down payment. Well, now you effectively have 40% if you're the bank against your loan to value on your house. So even the global financial crisis, the number of. And you're right, a lot of people walked away. People are much less Likely to walk away from a loan that's underwater. Let's say you a million dollar house and it goes to 900,000 and you put 200,000 down. Well, okay, you're not walking away, right? Because it's, it's whatever, it goes to 800,000. Now all of a sudden you are, let's say it goes to 700,000. Well if you still have 400,000 that's going to go away. It, it needs to drop a lot more before you walk away. So the banks are going to, going to come into this as soon as it's allowed and they're going to want to, that, they're going to love that hybrid type of product. So that's one thing. But the 88 analogy is more important. That is effectively when the accounting rules changed to allow equities to be treated on balance sheets and an entire business was born. And it's a massive business. It's called Prime Brokerage. And it's funny, you know, I deal with the XRP army and so do you Scott, on the weekends these people, they could barely spell prime brokerage. They don't understand, they're like screaming how great it is that Ripple prime is going to be this great man. This, this, this incredible thing. Now by the way, Ripple prime is a great idea. There, there are a couple pieces missing. I said that I'm not going to tell, I'm not going to give them free advice. They can call me and I'll happily to tell them why. But Ripple has a great balance sheet because the world has gifted them this xrp, you know, horde and they can borrow against it and they can create a great balance sheet. Hidden road is a great component. They have a custodian, they have all the keep pieces. But Prime Brokerage is essentially a business which facilitates all the hedge funds in the world for being able to go long and short and trade. And that business is based upon financing of the short position, borrowing of the asset and giving credit against long positions. It is a financing business. Before 1988 you had to reserve 100% of capital against equity. So it was a completely silly business. Now you could take a haircut based on the volatility or risk of portfolios to help them provide that business, which is a massive difference. When Bitcoin is accepted as collateral and crypto can be treated on an accounting basis and it requires basel rule changes the same as equities, then.
- [39:09]
A
In addition.
- [39:10]
B
To what's going on today, you can have a true financing business. Not with exception. James just told you they're about double market rates for hedge funds who are financing bitcoin leverage right now. And by the way, that double is variable. The volatility on those rates can be dramatic. They can go up a lot and they could go up quickly. And so it makes hedge funds very, very dependent upon the interest rate cycle of what's going on. You might be forced to lighten up just because you go from borrowing against your longs at 6 or 7 or 8% to 50%. Right. These things can move. Once these things change, that matters.
- [39:48]
A
They were losing you on sound.
- [39:50]
B
Yeah. There was a guy rumbling, can you hear me now? He just went away. Yeah. So the point is, is this is a long term thing. It's not happening in 2025. It may not happen in 2026, but the fact that it's going to happen is now inevitable because you don't get JP Morgan, Citibank in New York lobbying for things from the Basel rule committee without it actually happening happen as it does. So that's what, that's what we're talking about.
- [40:14]
A
I'm sorry, I want to just moving the conversation on slightly. There's some massive AI and crypto adjacent, but also just AI deals happening right now that are continuing to send tech flying iron announced 5 year 9.7 billion agreement with Microsoft to supply GPUs. I think it was up last I checked like 72 bucks. Pre trading cipher stock surges on 5.5 billion 15 year lease agreement with AWS. And then this one just hit. If you guys didn't see Amazon announces 38 billion partnership deal with OpenAI 6% up on Amazon stock. So here you go. We are now receiving daily multi billion dollar AI deals. Wow. Yeah, I love Mike's opinion on that because these, these are big. These are legitimate catalysts. Right? I mean.
- [41:07]
C
Well, let's talk about that a little bit. Like the catalyst you mentioned about the mainstream is clearly what's happening with banking and bitcoin. Amens. Finally we can go look back in history with Elizabeth Warren kind of in the same category as Aaron Burr. Thank her for that. Like, you know, we needed a good antagonist and in a good way. It's like, yeah, thanks and Gary Gensler. But the key thing that's really shifted for me is the fundamentals have clearly changed now. It's delightful finally to see everybody gets so bullish October because it always happens and it didn't happen. That's the key thing that's hardest thing to do in markets that hedge funds and you guys can do it well, you know, it's the number one thing to do is defining when the answers have changed, the questions always remain the same. And that's clearly been my case in Bitcoin. I've been early, I've been wrong in many ways but to me the answers have changed. Now those questions I got again used to get from those banks you're talking about on the Bloomberg terminal six years ago. Yeah I was quite bullish. Now the questions I get typically is what ETF I buy from retail. So also the fundamental shift really kicked in when the tide went out a little bit on the weekend of October of October 10th and we saw that if you're buying cryptos now, you're not only top one of top beneficiaries is the Trump family, the Trump administration and Trump administration officials. And you're dependent upon that. That's a complete shift from the past when I really like the space in the Trump administration one hated it because we saw where it was going is you're getting away from the system now. I think that's the inherent on any rally the insiders who've been in for so long say yeah, this isn't what I bought into when I bought into it 10 years ago and I made my many X's and we're getting the pile. And this is classic peak bull market stuff. Classic. And it just how it plays out can last for a long time. So that's my point is now we're at that stage now I filled everything over to the US stock market. Absolutely has to go up because if it just drops 5%, all the stuff that we see linking crude oil, copper's hanging in there. Cryptos will drop 10 or 20%. This is just in could be a day. That's why we're getting to that time of year. It's just I look at it as there's any time to be completely out of the market even in gold, it's now. And I rarely have said that in my entire career. Sometimes you just say thank you, nice to get out and have had a great year. Being long gold got lucky. But what's left Treasuries and with here's the key thing. If yields keep going up since the Fed started easing In September, that 10 year note is up about 5 or 6%. 5 or 6 basis points. Despite the Fed cutting 50 basis points. That's a bad sign. It says oh by the way, Fed chairman kind of said it. You can't cut in that environment. You're wrong. Bond markets telling them they're wrong to be cutting here. And I think that's the problem. Until we get a little bit of reverse wealth effect, inflation is going to stay sticky. Cryptos are just getting started, I think, on that.
- [43:56]
B
So two things here. First, I would agree with you if the crypto community was bullish. It's just not. I mean, that's just, you know, so let's understand that.
- [44:06]
A
James, we had a long conversation about that on Monday. That's been the weirdest time and everybody's pretty much confused.
- [44:13]
B
But the point about the Trump family, and frankly, I can't even believe that it wasn't news, but we had this. The Treasury Secretary of the United States basically go out being pro bitcoin over the weekend and no, nobody noticed. I just think it's funny. People are going to look at this in a year, two years, three years, and they're going to say, hold on. So wait a minute. The people who control the levers of power who are going to be nominating the next Federal Reserve chair who control the economy are bullish in asset stand to benefit either personally, which I personally think is wrong. But that's besides the point. But the fact is they're bullish on the asset and they want it be to, to go up and we bet against them. You know, you ever hear the expression don't fight the Fed? Well, this is don't fight the government. But yet in our political politicized thing, people don't care. And you're right, Mike, you're absolutely right. There are people who are selling bitcoin because they're, quote, disillusioned. But there was a great article that, you know, a lot of us commented on this past weekend, you know, talking about how this is really bitcoin's IPO post IPO moment.
- [45:18]
A
Yeah. Jody Visser, right.
- [45:20]
B
It was very, very good. It was very well written. I urge everyone to read that effectively. What you've heard on this show from me for weeks, he articulated better than I ever have, which is I talked about distribution. Bitcoin needs to move from the cypher punks to the broad financial system for it to achieve what it needs to achieve. And this is not a pretty process. It takes time and we're going through it and we have no idea when it's going to end. What you do know is don't fade the other side of it. And that's the point. And so I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see this continue longer. I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see it end and go to a new level. I don't know. And I'll be blunt. I have no right now.
- [46:02]
A
I'm totally speaking of the government though. I brought this up, but Trump literally said 60 minutes. I only care about one thing. Will we be number one in crypto? As I said, you can have your opinions on the president. You could say he's a liar. You could say he's always tell the truth. He's God, he's a devil. I have no idea. Everybody seems polarized, but when it comes to his view on what he wants from markets, I think you can tell.
- [46:24]
D
Him that his word, it's pretty clear. It's pretty clear he wants to hire.
- [46:28]
B
And it's pretty clear that the crypto community is like, we don't want that. So screw it. We're just getting the hell out.
- [46:35]
D
Yeah, but look at bring up Stop Ascent.
- [46:37]
A
By the way, he also said he had no idea who CZ was after partying him in the same video of which is hilarious.
- [46:43]
D
That's pretty funny.
- [46:44]
A
Go ahead, James, what were you saying?
- [46:45]
D
But bring up Scott Besent's tweet from Friday. That was, that was also significant. And it, it didn't get glossed over. It get glossed over by the general public, but not by the crypto community. And bitcoin, they were like, whoa, that's. That's actually a big deal.
- [47:01]
A
Talk about the white paper one.
- [47:04]
D
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Of course it was a dig on the Democrats. You know, that was the point of it. But he used bitcoin to, you know, contrast. Have a strong contrast of staying open versus the Democrats closing the government.
- [47:22]
A
Hey, James, could that pump in the overnight repo be because of the government shutdown?
- [47:28]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [47:29]
D
There's a.
- [47:30]
A
That they had. Yeah.
- [47:31]
D
Think about you. The TGA is now at a trillion dollars. That's not normal right now. You know, it's at a trillion dollars. Basically the, the treasury general account. That means they've. It's a checking account that's not getting spent. It's just, it's just sitting there, you know, with this well of cash that needs to get into the system. And if you wonder just how many government employees we have and how important it is. Well, now you're starting to, to get a sense that huh. It's a problem if, if people don't have money that the government is giving them or paying them. So there's both people not getting money for their benefits and people not getting their paychecks in the government. Those are big deals. And so it's not Moving into the system. Could that be a problem for banks? Possibly. I don't know. You know, I haven't, I haven't done a forensic, you know, accountant review or analysis of how that money flows through the banks. But it could be partly that, it could be partly that it's month end and it could be partly that, oh, that excess liquidity from the re. The reverse repo is now gone and it's been hiding the, just the, the voracious need of liquidity, constant need of liquidity from, from financial institutions to keep this whole leverage system going. Which goes to Mike's point, which if we don't get more liquidity, we're getting a drawdown that is just, that's no way, there's no way around it. And that's clear from Friday's activity. We need liquidity or things are going to lock up. And the, and the treasury is not going to stop issuing treasuries. They're going to continue trying to, to fund these $2 trillion plus deficits. You know, those are not going away. So that it is. That's exactly right, Scott. It could be partly that and partly other factors.
- [49:17]
B
I mean, people don't understand that the government shutdown has some, some, some pretty big effects. There's one of them. One of my favorite points is the entire, for Wall street, the entire IPO calendar has ground to a halt because the SEC is not allowed to approve an ipo. Before the shutdown, this was shaping up to be one of the best fourth quarters in Wall street history on a nominal basis, probably the biggest. Now it is go. It is potentially a complete washout. So if you take that, you understand Wall street bonuses are going to be massively down if this, if this thing drags on into December. It's, you're talking about a massive cut in terms of profitability. Now does anyone care? Why are you not seeing it in the news? Because no news station wants to cover this. No new station wants to say all the Wall street fat cats are being hurt by the government shutdown when people are literally not going to be able to afford food for their families. So you're not getting it covered. But we as macro ads analysts have to look at this because at the same time we might be seeing a socialist mayor in New York and Wall street panicking over that. You're literally going to see less money in the system and that money is the money that goes into assets, right? And there'll be less of them. And so that is a, that is a non trivial thing. There Are a lot of these non trivial things we don't know. I mean, you know, we talked about potentially bankruptcies. You know, what if, you know, what if people who wouldn't, you know, what if that money didn't flow in and it didn't, you know, support loans or it didn't support this or it didn't support that. There are definitely stresses in the system that people seeing.
- [50:53]
D
We're seeing stresses. We're seeing stresses now. They're part of it. Some people are saying that they're, that the Dems are just waiting until after Tuesday to, you know, to, to unfold, but who knows after the election, who knows?
- [51:05]
B
But it has it going. It's over 50 to go past November 16th.
- [51:11]
C
Yeah.
- [51:11]
B
Which is to me crazy.
- [51:12]
D
Yeah. Back to bitcoin. Here's your OG selling.
- [51:15]
A
Yeah, you sent me. I want to give you. How good of a producer am I, James? I had that up like 30 seconds after you sent that to me.
- [51:22]
D
I mean, and this is important, you know, this is, it's, it's held above a hundred thousand dollars even though you've had massive distribution from og you know, I mean, yeah, God bless them, they've been, they've been in for how long, you know, God knows how long. And they're gonna go get their estates and their boats and their planes. Okay. I don't blame them, you know, but that's, this is what it is, you know, so. But the fact that it's held up above here and yeah, the, the only thing, the only. Again, I think Mike, you and I come down the same, like the same path all the way to the point, to the point where we diverge of, you know, two things, that bitcoin is just one of, of thousands. And then the second thing is that the, the, the Fed and Treasury have learned their lesson. They, they haven't learned their lesson. That's, that's clear from Friday that like this is, this is going to start getting them nervous. I would expect to start hearing Fed officials talk about this this week and it they, you know, start talking about we may need to shore up the bank reserves and, and whether that has to do with short term liquidity needs due to the shutdown or whatever it is. I expect the Fed to start chirping about this because the market absolutely needs liquidity. We need it without it.
- [52:41]
C
So that, that, I think that's an important place to piggyback on is, is. I completely agree with you. There'll be massive pumping just like there was in Japan for the last 30 years. And just like there is in China right now, but it almost always comes after a significant drawdown in risk assets. And that is the key thing I see. I've never been more frightful in the markets. Now just after what gold did this year when it wasn't supposed to do what crude oil is doing and all the thing I've seen tilting over and that it's just there's a certain time that you have to just be very. To stand back and say thank you for all those great years and get out. And I think that's one of those times because I'm not calling for a crash, but severe reversion can be kicking in. The key thing to remember though is we're already finding pretty significant diminishing returns from Fed easing. The Fed started easing in September. Inflation's going up, stock markets mad. Bitcoin's actually showing major diminishing returns of that certainly from a risk asset point. Bitcoin and gold ratios dropping a lot since they started. So I'm seeing that we're fighting well knew we would get to the end game. But let's also remember as far as the lesson I learned is yes, I get it, I see what you're right about the Fed. But what if politicians learn it's a great way to ruin your chances of reelection is getting inflation, let inflation get out of hand. That to me is a big shift. That's what's changed since I've been trading starting in 1988 is we've been able to cut rates every time and not get inflation. But now we're getting that and the game's over. And that's why I think cryptos have to have their. The drawdown should be there first. We all agree there's a lot of bogus coins out there. Can should drop 99% and then we'll reset. I'm just looking trying to, you know, the question the same I'm just like trying to predict forward what's this happening? And I'd seen. Happy now if we just. Let's put it this way. Let's say, okay, we've we're up 23rd year in a row on the S&P 500. I mean it feels like kind of late stages. 1929. Just imagine if we end up uponing 10% this year. Now that is the average for less since 2000. How then how's that gonna feel as we get to the end of the year? No, maybe we can say, oh, it's just a shutdown. We'll be Back Just what Dave says. People aren't getting their bonus from IPOs and stuff but to me this is all part of that cycle that things like gold are telling us, be careful.
- [54:52]
D
Yeah, well you don't want to look at the part that I just shared with Scott then because God help us. I mean here we go again. I mean like this is, this is just.
- [55:03]
A
But that's a huge deal between them and Chad GPT, they're stock.
- [55:06]
D
It is, but here we go. You know, like when is, when is AI a bubble? I don't know. I mean how, I don't know when this is a bubble, but it's going to continue on and they're people are just looking, they're clearly just looking for, for places to tuck their, their capital in to keep riding this wave. And you know, I don't know if, if AI breaks the so called liquidity bubble, but like Dave says, there's a different, different denominator now after the great, after the great financial crisis and then Covid pump of liquidity, you can't just dump $5 trillion into, into the markets and expect everything to go back to normal. They're not. There is, there is a new normal. It's just what it is. And so the question is how quickly are they going to respond to things like we saw on Friday that the Fed governors aren't even talking about yet, which is just blowing my mind. They're gonna, somebody's gonna have to say something at some point here about what's going on in the repo market because bond investors are noticing for sure. You know, even if the, even if the, the stock market, the, your typical investors are not paying attention, the equity market, you, you better bet that the credit market is, is online and, and at attention here and trying to figure out what's going on.
- [56:30]
A
So.
- [56:34]
D
Yeah.
- [56:34]
A
Dave, did you have something?
- [56:35]
B
Yeah. I mean I think that when you talk about AI as a bubble, you have to break AI into two things. One, the actual consumer applications and what will it do to what vertical etc and, and that's a huge amount of analysis is going to depend on the vertical. Right. You know you can everything from medicine which it's, it's a massive, massive booster to that. Of course with our insurance system we're not going to see any of the benefit but you know, in terms of price, but that's different. But the one thing that is clearly not a bubble is the fact that the actual plans for expansion of compute for AI and energy and data centers and that infrastructure, we are the exact Opposite of where we were in early 2000 with regard to the Internet. So in early 2000 people don't know this, but in the Internet bubble, the thing that caused it, there was somewhere around 20x capacity in fiber, you know, in transatlantic fiber, something called Global Crossing, MCI, WorldCom, all these names that you might have heard about, but we were 20 times the amount of fiber that was needed at that time based upon what corporate America said. They were demanding, but they were building because they said, well, it's going to explode, it's going to go asymptotic, it's whatever. With AI, it's the opposite. With AI we are not even close, close to the amount of commute. Compute that. Corporate America and corporate, the world corporates are actually already saying they want. And so we, we are way under capacity in terms of the electric grids in every country. We are way under.
- [58:03]
D
We need, we, we need nukes desperately. Desperately.
- [58:07]
B
We are way under capacity.
- [58:10]
D
No.
- [58:11]
B
Yeah. So when you look at these deals, the reason they're getting signed is because whoever has it is valuable. They are, they are the prettiest girls at the bar and, and, and, and.
- [58:21]
D
Just across the street to that point. Dave, that is gorgeous. Then as Germany, as Germany implodes their, their, their nuclear reactors. You know, you've got Microsoft over here saying we need to figure out how to, how to use more nuclear power in order to, to fund, to, to drive.
- [58:37]
B
Well, do you think it's an, does anybody think that it's a, it's a, an accident that Bill Gates changed his climate doomerism, realizing that we just don't have enough power? You think that he's that stupid? No, Bill Gates is a lot of things. I think he's pretty evil actually.
- [58:52]
A
But I mean DEI is over, right? And that was Larry Fink who went full bitcoin.
- [58:59]
B
The need for power and infrastructure, that's not, we're nowhere close to capacity. And so people who are doomer about that, and that's part of what's holding up the stock market is because those are the companies that are performing right now as far as bitcoin is concerned. Bitcoin has a huge role in that. A lot of other crypto, nothing to do with it, but bitcoin is a huge role in that.
- [59:17]
A
In terms of miners certainly do look at iron and cipher.
- [59:20]
B
That's right.
- [59:21]
D
Question power. They need the power. They need the power.
- [59:24]
B
So when we look at macro trends, the need for electricity, data center space, compute, all of that, we're in the middle of a revolution. It's like the Industrial Revolution revolution. No one gave a crap about oil, no one gave a crap about steel until the Industrial revolution happened. And all of a sudden, wow, look, look at where the, look at who made all the money. Right? Well, you know, and so, yeah, that's what we're having now. And so that, that's a big deal. But short term, short term, anything can happen, right? Anything.
- [59:53]
A
Well, I would say that the need for power is going to dramatically reduce based on this breaking news, which is that chat GPD will no longer be provide health or legal advice. And we all know that that's got to be 95% of the usage of AI right now. What, what is this bump on my face? Yeah, right. The chat GPT is everybody's doctor. But that. I actually find that really interesting in the topic for another time. Before we wrap, I just want to say quickly, if you haven't watched my conversation from Money20 20 with Michael Sailor that I posted yesterday, I just highly recommend that you all do it. Just if you want to understand the products that are being built and the direction that the institutional and treasury side is going. I actually recorded with Mark Moss, James, your buddy, yesterday or two days ago and it's going to come out Sunday and it's an entire hour on, on the same topic. So I think that's where the, the puck is certainly moving. So give me, follow it closely. But if you want to see how those yields are being offered and the products that people are likely going to get interested in as, you know, interest rates drop zero. Again, really compelling conversation, James, Mike, Dave, thank you so much. Dave, you survived the elevator vestibule that you're recording from. Good job, Good job. And we will be back, of course, next Monday for Macro Monday. Thank you, everyone. Literally an elevator in front of him. How many people use that elevator while we were recording?
- [61:18]
B
About seven or eight, something like that. Oh my God.
- [61:20]
A
Your commitment, sir, I, I commend you. Thank you everybody. We'll see you next week. Bye.
- [61:26]
B
Let's do, let's do.