Bitcoin CRUMBLES Against Gold?! | Stablecoin Bill Just Took a HUGE Step Forward!

Summary

Podcast Summary: "The Wolf Of All Streets"

Episode: Bitcoin CRUMBLES Against Gold?! | Stablecoin Bill Just Took a HUGE Step Forward!

Release Date: April 3, 2025

Hosts: Scott Melker and Yago (Guest)

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1. Introduction to Tariff Palooza and US Tariffs

The episode opens with Scott Melker addressing the aftermath of "Liberation Day," highlighting the tumultuous introduction of unprecedented tariffs under the Trump administration. Scott remarks, “Tariff Palooza was so wild that we even imposed tariffs on uninhabited islands near Antarctica” ([00:00]). This unconventional move sets the stage for a heated discussion on the economic and geopolitical ramifications of broad-based tariffs.

Yago's Take on Tariffs: Yago dismisses the efficacy of tariffs, stating, “Tariffs are very obviously poor economic policy” ([03:28]). He criticizes the broad application of tariffs, noting their historical association with significant economic downturns, including the Great Depression. Yago explains that the U.S. has a history of imposing substantial tariffs that have often led to recessions, emphasizing that the current administration's approach is unlikely to differ in outcome ([03:50]).

2. Impact of Tariffs on Bitcoin and Gold Markets

Scott and Yago delve into the immediate effects of the tariffs on financial markets, particularly focusing on the contrasting performances of gold and Bitcoin. Scott observes, “We know that gold has absolutely skyrocketed while bitcoin has dumped” ([00:00]). This divergence suggests underlying economic instability, with gold typically viewed as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times.

Yago on Bitcoin’s Position: Yago remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects despite its short-term decline. He believes that global economic hardship, triggered by widespread tariff impositions, will eventually benefit Bitcoin as central banks around the world may resort to printing money, leading to currency devaluation. He states, “everyone is going to be devaluing their currencies” ([07:09]).

3. Trump Administration’s Tariff Strategies

Scott scrutinizes the Trump administration's tariff calculations, expressing skepticism about their accuracy and intent. He highlights a flawed methodology where tariffs are calculated by dividing the U.S. trade deficit with a country by that country's exports to the U.S., leading to arbitrary and inflated tariff rates. Scott points out, “we have 17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia… 46%… 64% for Cambodia” ([04:42]).

Yago's Analysis: Yago contemplates the strategic intent behind the tariffs, suggesting they might be aimed at creating global fear to negotiate better trade deals. However, he also warns that such strategies are more about generating chaos than achieving economic stability. Yago remarks, “This could actually shrink US manufacturing” ([10:43]), explaining that tariffs on inputs can inadvertently harm domestic production.

4. Bitcoin's Role and Hash Rate as an Indicator

The discussion shifts to Bitcoin's operational health, particularly focusing on its hash rate—a measure of the network's security and mining activity. Yago notes that a rising hash rate indicates confidence among miners and suggests that significant investments are being made in mining capacity, signaling bullish sentiments within a segment of the market ([17:54]).

Scott questions the correlation between Bitcoin’s hash rate and its price, acknowledging a “chicken and egg” scenario where it's unclear if hash rate drives price or vice versa. Yago counters by emphasizing the network's increasing security budget, highlighting Bitcoin’s resilience and growing institutional interest: “Bitcoin is generating about $4 billion in minor revenue per month” ([17:54]).

5. Altcoins’ Performance Relative to Bitcoin

Yago and Scott discuss the underperformance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. Yago attributes this to Bitcoin’s dominant network effects and its establishment as the primary digital asset. He states, “the world is waking up to the fact that this is a network effects industry” ([20:19]). Scott adds that altcoins continue to struggle, with most failing to outperform Bitcoin, reinforcing Bitcoin’s status as the leading cryptocurrency ([18:39]).

6. Stablecoin Legislation in the US

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to stablecoin regulation in the United States. Scott announces the advancement of the Stablecoin Genius Act in the House Financial Services Committee, noting its bipartisan support ([24:54]). He expresses concerns about potential unintended consequences, such as monopolization by major financial institutions and the marginalization of existing stablecoins like Tether.

Yago’s Perspective on Stablecoins: Yago underscores the strategic importance of stablecoins for maintaining the US Dollar's dominance as a global reserve asset. He explains that stablecoins are crucial for global dollar transactions, stating, “the stablecoin market is completely dominated by the dollar” ([25:56]). Yago speculates that while regulation may push certain stablecoins out of the market, it could also open opportunities for decentralized, Bitcoin-backed stablecoins to emerge, fostering competition and innovation within the space ([28:51]).

7. Market Volatility and Trading Strategies

Scott and Dan (from Chart Guys) address the heightened market volatility following the tariff announcements. Scott admits misjudging the market’s reaction, noting that the volatility exceeded expectations despite anticipating some level of uncertainty ([34:48]). Dan shares his cautious approach, likening his strategy to “turtle mode,” where he remains patient and avoids aggressive trading amidst uncertain conditions ([35:49]).

Dan on Bitcoin and the Nasdaq: Dan analyzes Bitcoin’s price action in relation to the Nasdaq. He highlights Bitcoin’s relative strength, noting that while the Nasdaq has confirmed a weekly bear flag, Bitcoin has maintained its support levels, positioning itself favorably for potential rebounds ([38:03]). He advises caution but remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s resilience compared to traditional stock indices.

8. Final Thoughts and Conclusions

As the episode wraps up, Scott emphasizes the importance of independent thinking in the Bitcoin community, asserting that true Bitcoiners should remain detached from political biases and focus on the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency ([43:24]). He advocates for Bitcoin as an alternative to flawed government economic policies, reinforcing the podcast's overarching theme of exploring Bitcoin's role amidst global financial instability.

Yago concludes by dreaming of a future where Bitcoin plays a central role in global finance, envisioning innovations like “Freedom Cities” with low regulatory environments that foster growth and experimentation ([30:24]). He remains hopeful that Bitcoin will continue to solidify its position as the leading digital asset, complementing existing financial systems rather than competing against them.

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Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker ([00:00]): “Tariff Palooza was so wild that we even imposed tariffs on uninhabited islands near Antarctica.”

• Yago ([03:28]): “Tariffs are very obviously poor economic policy.”

• Yago ([07:09]): “everyone is going to be devaluing their currencies.”

• Scott Melker ([04:42]): “We have 17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia… 46%… 64% for Cambodia.”

• Yago ([10:43]): “This could actually shrink US manufacturing.”

• Yago ([17:54]): “Bitcoin is generating about $4 billion in minor revenue per month.”

• Yago ([20:19]): “the world is waking up to the fact that this is a network effects industry.”

• Scott Melker ([24:54]): “Stablecoin legislation is very likely to be coming.”

• Yago ([25:56]): “the stablecoin market is completely dominated by the dollar.”

• Dan ([35:49]): “I just wanted to see if the bulls are able to do anything.”

• Scott Melker ([43:24]): “If you expect to come here and me to get super excited about everything a politician does economically… you've found the wrong place and the wrong show.”

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Key Takeaways:

1. Unprecedented Tariffs: The Trump administration's broad imposition of tariffs has been criticized for its economic inefficacy and potential to trigger further recessions.

2. Bitcoin vs. Gold: While gold has surged in response to economic uncertainty, Bitcoin has faced a downturn, though its long-term prospects remain robust due to increasing global currency devaluation.

3. Stablecoin Regulation: The progression of stablecoin legislation in the US is poised to reshape the digital currency landscape, potentially favoring major financial institutions while opening doors for decentralized alternatives.

4. Market Volatility: The tumultuous economic policies have led to heightened market volatility, prompting traders to adopt more cautious and patient strategies.

5. Bitcoin’s Resilience: Despite short-term challenges, Bitcoin's underlying strength, as evidenced by its hash rate and network security, positions it favorably against traditional financial markets.

6. Future Innovations: The vision for Bitcoin includes integrating it more deeply into global finance and fostering environments like "Freedom Cities" that prioritize low regulation and innovation.

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This episode of "The Wolf Of All Streets" provides an in-depth analysis of the interplay between government policies, especially tariff impositions, and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies. Through insightful discussions, Scott Melker and his guest Yago explore the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for Bitcoin and the broader financial ecosystem.

Transcript

[Scott Melker]

Liberation Day is passed and we have officially been liberated from all of our gains and apparently from common sense. Tariff Palooza was so wild that we even imposed tariffs on uninhabited islands near Antarctica. That is not a joke. It is something that actually happened. What is the Trump administration planning? Why are they doing this? What will it mean for markets? We know that gold has absolutely skyrocketed while bitcoin has dumped. Usually not a sign of healthy economic things to come. Going to unpack all of this with Yago. And of course, Dan from chart guys on the back half. Let's go. Let's do what is up, everybody? I am Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like, button. Might have to rebrand myself to the Wolf of no Streets because I have no idea what the hell is going on. And so apparently I need some new streets to live on. Yago. I'm sure Yago loves these tariffs, is huge fan.

[Yago]

I mean, to be honest, I don't really care all that much. It's not like I'm expecting the Trump administration to be an awesome administration. This is not a problem that we're going to vote our way out of, which is that, you know, democracies vote for large, incompetent and stupid governments and stupid governments do large and probastic things. And Trump is just better at it. Better. He. He introduces more drama. So look, I mean, tariffs are very obviously poor economic policy. Are they good? You know, geopolitics to. To fight the world with. I mean, United States taking on the entire world seems maybe like a poor choice. But what we really care about is we care about bitcoin. And I think this is great for bitcoin.

[Scott Melker]

It wasn't yesterday, but I agree with you that long term it should be. I was watching this kind of passively yesterday and I was on board for a while. He was kind of, you know, calmly talking about reciprocal tariffs and it would be fair trade and all these things. Then he hit us with the big board. I don't know why they didn't get the guy an easel. Like he was literally standing there holding it, you know, And I started looking at these numbers and they just seemed absurd. I mean, Cambodia, 49% tariffs. You know, you look up here at Vietnam, they apparently their USA discounted reciprocal tariffs 46%. Of course, these are all the countries that manufacturers had to move to after we attempted tariffs on China last time in 2018-2020. And China, if you remember that when we had the trade war with China last time, it lost us jobs, it didn't increase our manufacturing, and the United States government had to give our farmers a $28 billion bailout because China had reciprocal tariffs on soybeans and pork. So we've learned this lesson before and that was only one country.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Scott Melker]

Now we're just taking this blunt for instrument against literally everyone. I don't understand like tariffs are. Tariffs can be highly effective if they're targeted and narrow and brief.

[Yago]

The United States in its history has three times introduced significant across the board's tariffs. And each time had did that over the last 100 and close to now, almost 200 years has resulted in the most significant. That and that, that's. That kicked off the three most significant recessions and the Great Depression. Yeah.

[Scott Melker]

Smooth.

[Yago]

Yeah. It will be different this time. It will be different. No, I'm, I'm actually, I'm actually dead serious. The reason it will be different this time, it's not that the United States economy won't go into a recession. It's likely to. You know, there's like a good chance that will happen. But the reason it's different now is because ever since the Great Depression and the introduction of the Fed as an active participant and the treasury as an active participant, the solution to problems of this kind is printing dollars. And so what we're going to more likely see in a significant drawdown in markets and another deep recession is we're going to see the return of inflation.

[Scott Melker]

Okay, I just want to dig more deeply into these actual tariffs because some of this may be conspiracy theory, I don't know, but I kind of went down this rabbit hole and it's a good time. At the very least. Did ChatGPT come up with Trump's tariff rate formula? People have been able to exactly replicate it as if it was a fresh from AI but that might not be my favorite. I think my favorite is this one just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. Because by the way, these tariff rates on the chart are not accurate. Like objectively they're false. Right. Have no basis in actual tariffs. What is going on? They didn't actually calculate tariff rates plus non tariff barriers as they said they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we have 17.9 billion trade deficit. With Indonesia, for example, its exports to us are 28 billion. Divide those 64% which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us what extraordinary nonsense. This is. Okay, enough beating up on them. I think that there is a strategy here, maybe, but I've heard two arguments from the same people, and they're wildly conflicting. One is that this is a great negotiating tool. I do believe this, by the way, a great negotiating tool to create free trade, because everybody will be terrified, so to speak, and they'll all get rid of their tariffs and there'll be no tariffs. Great. But the same people who open their mouth saying that are also the same ones saying that tariffs will eliminate the need for the irs. You'll have an External Revenue Service because we'll make so much money from tariffs.

[Yago]

This is.

[Scott Melker]

Lutnick said both of these things, if anybody's wondering. So you can't be saying it's a negotiating tool to get rid of evil tariffs and also praise how amazing tariffs are going to be for the economy at the same time. And by the way, it's not external revenue, you idiots. If you put a 25% tariff on China, that tariff is paid by a United States company to United States Customs, not by a Chinese company. I did a poll on Twitter and, like, 40% thought that the Chinese company paid the tariff.

[Yago]

I, I'm loving how worked up you are about this, Scott. It's almost like you have no choice but to suffer through this because you live in America.

[Scott Melker]

God bless America. Okay, let's get back to the point, though, about bitcoin. Right? So obviously you said it's good for bitcoin. That's something that we need to dive more deeply into.

[Yago]

Yeah, look, the, so I, I, I would say the following. There's a lot of drama, and Trump is fantastic at generating that drama. And the drama might be great for negotiation, but what I see is a lot of people are like, joining this team, the anti Trump team, or joining the pro Trump team. And like you say, if you join the pro Trump team, you have to be in favor of all of the nonsense they're talking about, and otherwise you have to be in favor of all the nonsense on the other side. But for mental health, for living a life full of truth, and most importantly, for making good investment decisions, what you really want is to be detached from all of that noise and focus on reality. And in reality, there's one thing here which really matters, which is that this is going to generate significant hardship in the US Economy. It's going to generate even worse hardship in every other economy, and that is going to mean a massive global print. It's not just the US and the Fed that's going to be printing, China is going to be printing, Europe's going to be printing, Japan's going to be printing, the UK is going to be printing, everyone is going to be devaluing their currencies. And my, and we're already starting to see that in the M2 numbers and I suspect that we're going to start feeling the impact of that in the markets in May.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah, I agree with you 100%. I'm reading the comments. People are telling me I'm wrong about how tariffs work. I mean it's literally fact. I mean a tariff is a tax that the US company pays on the good coming in from China. And now I'm being called a libtard. So let me go into what Iago has just said. You can actually like Trump and think tariffs are fucking stupid. You don't. Just because your guy thinks something is a good idea, you don't have to agree with all the good or bad ideas that they have.

[Yago]

Yeah, I mean you don't even have to like Trump. Right. Even if you like some of his policies, you don't particularly have to like Trump. I personally don't know Trump, but his TV Persona is, you know, is a bit of a heel.

[Scott Melker]

Listen, I think if, if the, if the plan here is chaos to get a better deal, I think it's brilliant. I do.

[Yago]

Yeah. And I think, look, short term pain.

[Scott Melker]

For long term game. Sure, I, I get that. But like for, by the way, they, and tariffs will bring back American manufacturing. It's going to bring jobs back to America.

[Dan]

Great.

[Scott Melker]

That takes five to 10 years if it works. It takes five to 10 years. You think he'll still be president in 10 years?

[Yago]

Okay, well maybe it's a little bit more complicated than that. And again, I'm talking a bit out of my depth here because I'm not an expert on the entire US economy, but a lot of the inputs. Look, the US is an advanced economy and it generates what manufacturers is frequently the highest value manufactured goods. Right. Which means that the inputs are not raw materials, but frequently lower cost, lower processed manufactured goods. These could be things like steel, it could be refined ores, it could even be components. And what happens is when you start placing a tariff on the inputs to your production, that actually hurts manufacturing. And so weirdly enough, this could, at least in the first stage, and the first stage can be years, this could actually shrink US manufacturing.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah, of course, because you can buy American made, which is an amazing idea, except for that all the parts in that American made car coming from China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and other countries all over the world. And Canada. So it's not like all of a sudden there's an American producer ready to step in and fill all of the demand for those things. Once again, I think it's got to be a negotiating topic here. But to pretend that we can then replace the IRS with external revenue, which is just revenue coming from American companies passed on to the American consumer, is kind of nonsense. And to be quite honest, I was almost on board until the story I mentioned in the beginning. Nowhere on earth is safe. Trump imposes tariffs on uninhabited islands near Antarctica. I mean, this is not a joke. Like, I mean, it does reduce your confidence.

[Yago]

It does reduce your confidence that this is a well thought out.

[Scott Melker]

That's right. Like, you literally had, like, news. It was like liberations day here. But we're going to push the press conference to four because we have no idea what our tariffs are going to be. And it's one.

[Yago]

Yes. Look, I mean, there's two stories you can tell here. One story is, this is brilliant. Right. The Trump administration and Trump himself are, are. Are basically trying to convince the world they're in a knife fight with a crazy person. The last thing you want to do is be in a fight with a craz. But it's. That's a really, really great story. But frequently it's much easier to just look at the facts and tell the simpler story. Right. Occam's Razor suggests that what we're seeing is a deep 4D chess. To convince the world that you're crazy is just simply incompetence and a lack of attention to detail.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah. And in the meantime, gold is absolutely flying, which is generally not a good sign. It basically made it to 3200 yesterday. Now it's backing off. There is an argument that the first reaction markets have is usually the wrong one. So I bet gold dumps now and stocks do fine and Bitcoin rises.

[Yago]

Well, look, the last time that gold was on a rally like this was started in October of 2008, and it was only in March of 2009 that stock started to recover. So that can be a long process. Now, gold actually has been rallying for several months now, so we're well into that process already. But, yes, the degree of global uncertainty is, for the first time, really in 16 years, driving people to gold. And, and, and that, and what happened last time was the global financial crisis.

[Scott Melker]

Okay, so we obviously have the. This narrative, which you and I both hate, but JP Morgan says bitcoin's digital Gold narrative is under pressure highlights gold strength in debasement trade. You can obviously take a look at the gold bitcoin ratio. Bitcoin has been dumping against gold. Had a rally, but all the way down. So from a price perspective, bitcoin is not acting as digital gold. I've always made the argument that price is irrelevant. It can be a superior version of gold without treating like gold. But if you are looking at the comparison, Bitcoin is not rallying on global uncertainty.

[Yago]

No. And I, you know, and I wouldn't expect it to. Bitcoin is still very much a nascent asset. I think that what makes it such an attractive purchase is the fact that it is, you know, gold to be right. So you don't have to pay the price of gold in order to buy a significant percentage of sort of the bitcoin supply. You could buy a lot more of the percentage of the bitcoin supply than you can buy of the world's gold supply. So, you know, on a personal basis, I was buying in the lead up to yesterday's announcement because I saw that there was volatility in the market and I thought there were one or two options. You know, basically it was pretty binary. Either Trump was going to disappoint the world by having the kind of tariffs that we introduced yesterday, like the sort of insanity that we used to. Used to introduce yesterday, or he would, you know, disappoint his base by, by, by going soft in. And so the market was going to go one of two ways. But it felt to me like because of that, prices were pretty low in anticipation. And indeed, at the prices I was buying is more or less where bitcoin is now. So if bitcoin continues to fall, I'm going to be extremely happy to buy. And I think there is some possibility of that. Right. We might go into the high 70s again. What I think is slightly more likely is that we've taken the hit down, people have sold on the news and that bitcoin is likely to tread water for the next six weeks. And that is sort of why I think that we're going to see the impact of liquidity that is already flowing into the market coming in May.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah, this gives certainty, whether it's good certainty or bad certainty. It was the uncertainty. I think that we're generally rocking markets now. People just. Tariffs become normal within a week and it won't matter. And to your point, I mean, we're trading back to prices not seen since two or three days ago. It's not like this is some mega dump. I'll tell you what I was wrong about yesterday. I was here and I was like, I think this news is all priced in. Everyone's expecting this crazy volatility, but everybody knows the tariffs are coming. But when he started hitting people with like 49 and 50, I think, you know, 25 on all foreign made automobiles. Nothing on Canada and Mexico or Russia, curiously, it was just weird.

[Yago]

I mean, there's on the McDonald Islands, which is not even a place really. But not in Russia.

[Scott Melker]

No, no, Russia doesn't get tariffs.

[Yago]

Maybe there's no trade with Russia and so there's nothing to do. Maybe, maybe there's no. Look, I mean it's possible that there, that because there's no trade, Russia actually doesn't have a, a trade imbalance with the US and so there's no, no need to introduce tariffs.

[Scott Melker]

Maybe you can unpack this for me. Bitcoin's hash rate. There it goes. Bitcoin's hash rate hits record high. Yet price and activity tell another story. How important is looking at hash rates as a leading or trailing indicator for what price might do and how important is bitcoin hash rates chart in general?

[Yago]

I mean, I will admit that I am not, I haven't ever done an analysis about how well hash rate growth is a predictor. But what I can say, what you can say for certain is that there are a lot of people with billions of dollars at stake who have entire teams that are doing the analysis and they believe that his teams have told them now is the time to invest in additional mining capacity. So it would seem at least that part of the market is bullish and they are probably better incentivized than anyone to have a realistic view of where BTC is going in the short to medium term.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah, we've always had this chicken egg situation. I'm trying to look at it and see if bitcoin price follows, but it does at least say that bitcoin is extremely healthy and security has improved. Correct?

[Yago]

Yes, yes. No, I mean, look, bitcoin is generating about $4 billion in minor revenue per month.

[Scott Melker]

Right.

[Yago]

So it's, its current security budget is about $16 billion a year. And if bitcoin does appreciate significantly, that's going to go up to well north of 25, $20 billion a year. So yes, it's an extremely significant budget. Just as a point of comparison. Right. You know, Solana security budget is, is also very, very significant with all of those fees. And it's, it's at $3 billion a year or less.

[Scott Melker]

I mean, if we think that bitcoin's dumping. Take a look at your favorite altcoins. That's Solana, right? Trade it up to 136, 113. I mean, what's crazy is still every single time bitcoin even sneezes, all coins get like an extra 10 drop. It's been brutal out there. For anybody who's not in bitcoin and is exposed to crypto in general, Brutal.

[Yago]

Yeah, yeah. Look, I mean, there's, there's. I think it's also going to be continued to be. Look, the. The Ethereum, if you sort of look at the entire chart, has been trending down with ups and downs, but basically trending down. This is versus bitcoin against bitcoin. But for eight years now, right there, over the last eight years, there were only four months in which you could have bought where you would have outperformed bitcoin. Right? That little, that little. You see, you see that little dip at the very W dip. That was the only period of time where if you had bought there, you would have outperformed bitcoin. Four months out of eight years is not very good performance. So I think overall, especially now, as bitcoin is likely, is being adopted by significant financial institutions, is being bought as a hedge by government, and is likely to be adopted by the world's wealthiest. By the government of the world's wealthiest country, the United States. It's just, it's been crowned the king. It's no longer even worthwhile talking about these other systems as competitors to bitcoin. I think the real race now is to what degree can they be complements.

[Scott Melker]

To bitcoin, which is why you're building bitcoin. Os.

[Yago]

Yes. My sense.

[Scott Melker]

Did you see that? I interviewed Hoskinson. We talked about you.

[Yago]

Yes, I did, I did. What did you think of the conversation?

[Scott Melker]

I thought. I mean, listen, people can think what they do about him. I understand that he tries to poke the nest, but when you talk to him, he just seems absolutely brilliant.

[Yago]

He is an extremely articulate thinker.

[Scott Melker]

Incredible, incredible. But I mean, he obviously believes that in partnership with you, technically, that basically defi and everything that's on other chains can be brought to Bitcoin and that bitcoin can be the base layer. I mean, when you. Someone who was there for the beginning of Ethereum and who built Cardano, that people still even say Cardano hasn't showed its full promise or delivered on all the things, and he's pivoting to building on Bitcoin should say something.

[Yago]

Yeah, I think we're going to see more and more of that. And I think Charles has had a track record of being ahead of the market. You know, he created the world's first stablecoin as the founding member of Ethereum, launched one of the most successful L1 ICOs immediately in the wake of the ICA, like at the very beginning of the ICO period. And that was that became Cardano. He's been ahead of the game on a lot of things as well as very technical things. Orburus, which was the proof of stake system developed by Cardano, is today considered one of the very best out there. So, yeah, I think he is an early indicator of the fact that even Charles, who was such a hater of bitcoin, coming back to bitcoin is just telling us that. And everything about this market is telling us that the world is waking up to the fact that this is a network effects industry. Right. The network that is winning. The network effect is bitcoin and therefore is likely to continue winning.

[Scott Melker]

I love this comment. I'm going to bookmark this episode and relive it 12 months from now. Two Internet Bitcoin guys explaining how Trump will be wrong. He's really wrong. We'll see. Listen, come back in 12 months. I bet like we won't have talked about tariffs for 11 and a half.

[Yago]

I mean, I mean, I don't even.

[Scott Melker]

Know what right and wrong will be, to be quite honest, because it's either like, yeah, it'll be like there won't be tariffs and be like, see, great negotiating tactic, but you'll forget the tariffs. We're supposed to like eliminate the irs. If terrorists eliminate the irs. And it wasn't a negotiating tax. I mean that, this is the thing.

[Yago]

Look, I mean, I would.

[Scott Melker]

I'm not making fun of that comment, by the way. I agree.

[Yago]

I, I am looking forward to a world where 12 months from now, Greenland and Canada are part of the United States of America. Panama Canal is controlled by the us There's a place in Gaza called Mar a Lago Point two, there's a bitcoin reserve. The world has dropped all tariffs against the US and taken 100 year bonds and the IRS has been canceled. I want to see that world. So I'm hoping that the gentleman is, is correct.

[Scott Melker]

Oh, no tariffs. It's the end of the world. Orange man. Bad. Wow. I hate change. Why does the world have to play fair with America? Guys, that's good. Let them play fair. Maybe calculate the tariffs right when you decide what fair is instead of just dividing two numbers and pretending that's the rate. But yes, I, I theoretically I agree with fair trade and that the tariff should be equal. I'm just not convinced that this path is actually going to get us there. But I do want to pivot really quickly and talk about this. Worth noting how stablecoin bill advances in US House with support of Trump Democrats so now we have the Genius act in the Senate that we already know passed out of committee, bipartisan support. Now we have the Stable act in Congress. I don't understand why we need them on both sides, but Cool. That has been approved 32 to 17 in the House Financial Services Committee and will go to the floor of the House. There are some nuances between the different bills, but very clear that stablecoin legislation is very low. Likely to be coming. Actually, at 11:00 today, I'm interviewing Senator Gillibrand who proposed the first Lummis Gillibrand act three years ago and the Stablecoins Genius Act. So I'm going to ask her about it. Should be interesting. Stablecoin legislation is coming. I'm starting to worry if it's going to be good legislation or not.

[Yago]

Well, look, I think the, a lot of people seem to be waking up to the fact that, that the best hope in the future for the US Dollar as, as continuing to be the sort of like the reserve asset of the world and by extension the reserve asset of the digital world are stablecoins. And they're an extremely powerful tool. Like nothing has driven dollars into the hands of regular people in countries outside of the U.S. like the dollar. Like, like stablecoins, the stablecoin market is completely dominated by the dollar. It's weird, right? Like European traders, Chinese traders, Indonesian traders, Brazilian traders, they're all trading the dollar with stable coins. So that is a massive strategic asset to the US And I think the US are going to do everything that they can to encourage that and to maintain that really completely dominant lead that they have.

[Scott Melker]

I'm just questioning what can go wrong. An unintended consequence of stablecoin legislation. Like we just saw Mica obviously a few years ago, people sort of cheered it because it was some clarity, even though they didn't like it. Well, now you have Binance pulling tether in Europe. You have Palo Arduino screaming that they have to have way too many of their reserves in crappy banks in Europe that are fractionally reserved. I'm hoping that we can learn some of those lessons in the United States and pass better legislation. But what if our stablecoin legislation says only Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, BlackRock and State street can, you know, issue stable coins?

[Yago]

I mean I, I don't think we're.

[Scott Melker]

At that point now, but I'm just saying.

[Yago]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a continued effort to sort of minimize tether. But tether's not going to go away. And tether is an extremely useful tool because, but you know, I mean tether is a much more useful tool to the US than it is to Europe.

[Scott Melker]

Right.

[Yago]

I could definitely see why the, why the Europeans would want to completely minimize the use of tether because it offers them very, very little. But for the, for the US for the entire Cold War there was this regime in place which was called the Euro dollar which was basically a way for non US banks to issue dollar denominate, basically stable coins. Dollar denominated credit on the basis of all kinds of assets. And it was a way that Russian banks could trade with Polish banks and with Nigerian banks using dollars. Right. Even though it had nothing to do with the Fed. It was a completely alternative way of, of managing dollars. But it really helped cement the dollar status as the global reserve asset even inside of the communist world, while that was still a thing and tether and, and sort of off, you know, offshore stable coins represent the same thing. At the same time. I do think that the US like all governments, I mean what, what do governments want? Governments want monopoly over power. That, that's sort of the, the primary driver of a government. And so they are going to want to try and assert, you know, their control over the stablecoin space. And the best way for them to do that is to have US institutions issue it. And so what might be the interesting outcome of all of this is that the stablecoin ecosystem becomes less of a tether monopoly and fragments more. And I think that that might open up cracks into which dec bitcoin backed stablecoins will have a much more interesting opportunity to grow into. So we'll see and I think it could be exciting to see more competition in stablecoin space over the next two or three years.

[Scott Melker]

I still think the biggest missing piece here to wrap the conversation and everything coming back to bitcoin is an incredible stable coin on Bitcoin blows my mind that we haven't really seen that. If everything is coming back to bitcoin, I mean we have tether I guess on lightning now, but for actual adoption, the most natural thing in the world to me is a very secure hugely Used stable Coin on the bitcoin network.

[Yago]

Up until recently, we didn't really have the technology to integrate Bitcoin with other systems, with other layers, to build high throughput systems in Bitcoin. It's only now that those technologies are beginning to emerge. Really it's this year. And most of them are, are still very, very, very early. And so I think in terms of investing and also in terms of sort of as a developer or a builder, where to put your efforts, Bitcoin right now is the most interesting space in all of crypto.

[Scott Melker]

I 100% agree with that. Iago, as always, thank you. I hope I didn't get you in the crosshairs of a bunch of angry Americans.

[Yago]

Well, I mean, I want the angry Americans to know that I love America and I'm actually thinking of moving there. I'm currently working on.

[Scott Melker]

I know. So when I met you, just so people know a like we were talking about how like you, like we're gold smuggling gold out of South Africa and you were looking to build a bitcoin utopia in a country where you could buy a bunch of land and create your own government. Now you're like, maybe I'll move back to America. It couldn't be like bipolar.

[Yago]

That's my biggest hope, really. The number one hope that I have in terms of promises made, promises delivered, is freedom Cities. Right? Trump discussed the idea of introducing 10 new cities in the United States with low regulatory environments, sort of like the Hong Kong or, or Shenzhen of the United States. And that could be a massive way of reducing the cost of housing, driving new innovation, driving growth and driving experimentation. That is the key to prosperity. And I really hope that that is something that we see the Trump administration.

[Scott Melker]

Actually follow up on this Orange man bad but he's moving there, guys. He can like a country and like, not agree with everything that their president says. For fuck's sake, man. The American dream has nothing to do with a single politician. That's the beauty of America. They all become forgotten by time in a great country. God. Okay, enough gago. Thank you very much, everybody. Give Yago a follow. We'll be back next Thursday. Right?

[Yago]

Thanks, Scott.

[Scott Melker]

All right, man. Thank you very much. All right, as we move on here, just to clarify a few things, I was having a good conversation with Green Day profits over here in the comments as Iago was, was talking guys like I, I, he said, you know, it feels like we're Trump bashing here every day. I, I'm a bitcoiner. I, I bash politicians like you Guys don't remember what it was like here during the last administration. We bashed Biden's economic policies 10 times more than we're bashing Trump's. This has nothing to do with Trump. If you're a real bitcoiner, like simping for all these politicians is super lame anyways, right? I mean, the. The reason that I originally got into bitcoin, outside side of speculating to make money, was because I actually believed that governments were fundamentally broken and I wanted another option. So if you expect to come here and me to get super excited about everything a politician does economically when I literally buy Bitcoin because I don't believe that politicians are good at economics, then you've found the wrong place and the wrong show. Sorry, sorry. Not sorry, in the words of some millennial pop female singer that goes unnamed because I have no idea. In the meanwhile, obviously, Thursdays are sponsored here by L Bank, which is a global no KYC exchange, which means that wherever you are in this beautiful world that is tied by global trade, you can globally trade on L Bank. It's right there, see? Bitcoin USDT pair, which you can now buy at 82,300. It's a good price for bitcoin in my humble opinion. You can get 20 USDT sign up bonus with KYC. If you choose KYC deposit, get a 50 trading bonus, trade to earn up to 100 cash back and get a referral bonus of 250 USDT check out L Bank. And now, ladies and gentlemen, back on stage. Chart, guys. Dan. I feel like every Thursday I've been gone and you've been here, but I haven't. It's kind of weird.

[Dan]

Last two. Yeah, it's bad. I've been the captain of the ship. It's not. It's great. I'm, I'm, you know, getting ready to take over permanently.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah. He's the new host on Thursday. So be you and Iago arguing about tariffs. You'll just be like, look at the chart, man. I don't care about your tariffs.

[Dan]

So just, just real quick, my, my opinion on tariffs again as Trader Dan. Trader Dan and regular Dan are two debt very different people. And I don't care at all. I don't care at all. It's just always the price action. And you know, right now we're in clear daily weekly downtrends in the major indices and that's all I care about. So I know there's going to be a ton of volatility. I care about knowing that volatility is going to be increased as we get, you know, the drip of headlines. But that's really it. So that's how I'm approaching the markets. There's no, you know, macro bear perspective from me because so many times throughout my trading career there's been macro scenarios that you think something would happen and the opposite happens. And so I have learned to just take one day at a time and any biases that I develop are based on price action trends. And I do the absolute best that I can to keep my politics and emotions out of my mind when I'm making trading decisions.

[Scott Melker]

Did you expect this volatility with the tariff announcements? I was wrong. So everybody expected volatility. So I was like the counter guy. I was like, man, we all know tariffs are coming, whatever.

[Dan]

I expected that there would be volatility. This is more than I thought. I thought that the market was being prepared for the worst and that we would get a slow drip of things not being as bad as the market prepared for. And so that was incorrect. But again, you know, definitely risk off heading into the announcement just for the sake of, you know, this isn't the hill I want to die on trying to be a brave bull. And yeah, just, you know, this reminds me a lot of 2022, just in terms of my approach, which is what I call turtle mode, which is just pulling inside my shell, being a bit safe, a bit cautious, not doing anything aggressive as a bull nor a bear, and waiting for the dust to settle a little bit. And there's nothing wrong with that. Oftentimes that's the best approach to ensure we don't get ourselves stuck in sticky situations.

[Scott Melker]

So now how are you viewing this? I mean, all the volatility in the world and here we are basically back to like two days ago. Right. I mean, we got this nice move up. I think that gave people hope into the news and then dumped it right back. But, I mean, looking a little shaky in the stock market. You know, obviously it was like five minutes for the QS to drop 3% or something after hours. Right. So, I mean, markets definitely didn't like it. But we also have that first reaction, usually the wrong one, and then here we go. Bounce right back to where you started and call it a day. Yeah, I mean, now we got some certainty and maybe the charts will start to paint a clearer picture.

[Dan]

Bitcoin's nice and clear for me. I mean, we, we shot straight up to resistance. We rejected. We were overextended into that resistance test and now we're back Testing support and, you know, nothing really changes as long as 81,000 is support and 89,000 is resistance. And obviously the bears have a bit of an edge just because we're a lot closer to support. But bitcoin, one positive has been that we've been showing relative strength comparative to the NASDAQ for the last few weeks, where, you know, the weekly timeframe was a very similar setup to the Nasdaq. And you know, the Nasdaq has confirmed the weekly bear flag and dropped to lower lows. And bitcoin has not done that at this point. So we can say bitcoin is positioned well. But I do believe the NASDAQ has to find a bottom in order for bulls to have any confidence. And where does that relative strength come from? You know, Michael Saylor buying whatever it was, 2 billion definitely is an impact. Maybe GME is buying right now that would have a little bit of an impact. So there's little things that can lead to relative strength, but as of right now, it's all about 81,000 and that level's in play as we are attempting to see a short term bounce right now. But again, short term, the key word, what I'm watching on the Nasdaq and again, you know, I don't have high conviction in this pattern is the potential of a falling wedge where if we bounce today, you know, I'm not, I'm not longing off this downtrend support, but if we bounce today, that's going to make me a lot more confident that this is a 12 hour falling wedge shaping up where the bear breaks lack follow through. And that could, you know, essentially this will be the most important pattern for me into next week if we bounce today and hold this downtrend support line.

[Scott Melker]

It's funny, I'm looking at the bitcoin daily chart sort of as you're talking and all this volatility that we've had, but you still just have basically 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 days that have either opened or closed. Right, at 82,400 or 82,500. Yeah, we're on both sides of it, but it's literally the same price since here. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Yeah, this is the sixth candle that basically opened and or closed right there and this one pumped and this one dumped right back down to it. So maybe right now we don't really have that much volatility when you look at it from kind of that perspective from bitcoin.

[Dan]

Yeah, I mean, we're at the same price that we were at two and a half weeks ago and the same price that we were at five days ago. So again, there's not a ton changing there and the bulls are positioned well. I mean, in an ideal world for bulls, the NASDAQ is a 12 hour falling wedge. Bitcoin holds 81,000. And as the Nasdaq gets a bounce going from here, then bitcoin bounces back up to 85, 86,000 into next week. Worst case scenario obviously is the Nasdaq continues free falling and Bitcoin breaks 81,000 and heads back to test the recent low of 76.5. So again, it's a time to be cautious in both directions in my opinion. Obviously, the bears are a lot more comfortable in on many charts, but there's it's just wait for the dust to settle kind of mode. I talk about how this is like a snow globe and you shake it up and you wait for all the little flakes to fall. Well, we just got the shake up and the flakes are coming down and we need to see where things settle.

[Scott Melker]

I can tell you that the 10 year definitely just broke support. So I think we'll see what happens there and how much that matters. Streamyard does this annoying thing now where I can't pivot back from screen. You're sharing anymore without like closing one and opening the other. It's not even. I mean, look at that. You had that clear head and shoulders up there, by the way. But then, I mean, if this starts to really fall, you got to think that the Fed's going to come in and start the burr. But I guess that could be either good or bad. But I think this is the biggest signal we have right now is what's happening with rates.

[Dan]

Yeah, big drop there. A couple in terms of altcoins. You know, there's a couple that are still. You got XRP still battling V key support level, just around $2, just under $2. You know, you got Binance that had a really nice bounce. I'm watching for Binance to try and hold a weekly higher low here and just tighten up through a good bit of April. So as we know, altcoins in general, very weak. But there are a couple names that we're keeping an eye on. Just, you know, I want to find the names where there's the potential that they, they hold up better. You know, essentially the names to keep an eye on if bulls are able to show back up. And we want to have the strongest names that we're watching. And so there's A couple out there, but obviously the vast majority are on the weaker side of things because there are some that did confirm their weekly bear flags, same as the Nasdaq. And I've been surprised at how similar a lot of altcoins charts have been to the Nasdaq over the last month. Plus. But that's, that's where we stand right now. One more, one more thing to talk about. I've talked about the, the metal miners a few times over the past.

[Scott Melker]

Actual miners.

[Dan]

Yes, the real ones. The ones taking out the. Well, I won't say the real, you know what I mean, but just to update on what I'm doing, you know, had a position on this bull break, moved my stop up here. I watched today play out. I exited half right before coming on live with you into this bounce and now my half stop is under that low. So that's, that's a way that, you know, if I'm in front of the computer, I don't need to have a hard stop. And I just wanted to see do we get any bounce? And I'm glad I did because it's been a really nice bounce over the last 15 minutes. So that's my game plan on, on the metal miners. But again, pretty much everything else, I'm just patiently waiting and I'm in no rush. You know, I got a lot of cash in my day trade accounts, all cash. I got a lot of cash in my IRA and just wait, just waiting and seeing if the bulls are able to do anything. But again, you don't have to nail bottoms for there to be meaningful gains. It's, it's okay to wait for the bulls to give us a reason to be looking long and we don't have that reason at this point.

[Scott Melker]

You've gone full Buffett sitting on a big pile of cash.

[Dan]

I definitely was paying attention.

[Scott Melker]

Smart guy's pretty smart.

[Dan]

I mean, it's also the kind of thing where again, the gains from the 2022 lows in the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 in a span of two years were massive. I think the NASDAQ was up like 100% in two years. And so again, you know, I tell my 73 year old dad, now is the time to be selling. It's the first time I've ever told him anything. And it was. Now's a good time to be sizing down your exposure in equities because sitting through, you know, a downturn when you're 73 is very different than when you're 53. And so fortunately, he did so into the end of last year. We'll see if that's a good long term decision or not. But again, the s and P500 right now is only down what, 10, 11% at most. And you know, 20, 22, it dropped 26%. So we'll see.

[Scott Melker]

Let's not do that.

[Dan]

Yeah, I'd prefer not, but yeah, gotta be ready.

[Scott Melker]

All right, guys, give Dark guys a follow. Dan, you could follow him obviously on X and check out YouTube for all of his other superior content. Man, thank you as always for showing up even when I'm not here. Much appreciated. Have a good one, Dan.

[Dan]

You too. Thanks.

[Scott Melker]

Just, just a reminder, guys, like, not a show about politics. We never talked about politics in the past until bitcoin and crypto became inextricably tied to politicians and their policies. We only started talking about politics when Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren came on the scene. If you think that we're like saying something negative about your guy, like, you should remember I literally got fire Gary Gensler trending on X. And I think I had Max Kaiser on the show calling Elizabeth Warren literally, not my words, like a cock sucking crack whore or something. Right. Trump's doing some good things, Trump's doing some bad things. He's a human being. He's a politician. It applies to all of us. It's not my job to just like get on my knees and fellate somebody because you guys like them. Some people do bad things sometimes make bad decisions. And guess what? My takes are often just as bad as their decisions. I look back and I'm like, did I really think that that was stupid? Maybe in six months we're gonna look back and you guys are gonna be dumping dump dunking on me over my terrible takes on tariffs. That's the price you pay for showing up every day and sharing your opinions with the world. It is what it is. That's all I've got for you guys today. We'll be back obviously tomorrow with NLW for the Friday five. All right, everybody. The Friday five Dragonflame misses the days when I was charting. Yeah, you know, like I, I charted a lot and you know what I found? Charts are cool, but nobody's going to use them the same way. And the problem is when you start telling people what a chart says, they come back to you three months later. Like, you said that the price was going to go here and I lost my family car. I don't really like, I get there's all these like signal groups that are cool. And like, people, there's great traders telling you what to do, but at the end of the day, the, like, ROI on telling people your opinion on where price is going to go is exceptionally low. You know, we used to have fun, man. I thought it was clear that I was making jokes and we were just funny. And then people, like, make very dramatic, serious financial decisions based on a joke you make about a chart, and then you get blamed. So easier to just interview people and let that get them get blamed instead. That's all I got for you guys.

[Yago]

Bye.

[Scott Melker]

Let's do. Let's do.