The Wolf Of All Streets – Episode Summary

“Bitcoin & Crypto Bear Market Confirmed? Wintermute Issues Dire Warning”

Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Yago
Date: November 6, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Scott Melker and frequent guest Yago tackle the current sentiment around Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, responding to dire warnings from major trading firms like Wintermute. They dissect whether crypto truly faces a new bear market, what signals (both psychological and technical) are at play, why institutional and retail participation has shifted, and what future scenarios might unfold. The conversation traverses bitcoin price action, stablecoin flows, institutional rotation, and the fate of hyper-funded projects like Ripple, always digging beneath headlines to unearth the real drivers of market stagnation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Bear Market Warnings & Misreadings

• Bearish sentiment: Major trading desks warn of player-versus-player conditions and flat liquidity; concerns about lack of fresh money entering crypto.
• Wintermute’s dire warning: Scott frames the warning around stagnation in stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries, with little new inflows observable.
  Scott: “Seems like there is massive bearish sentiment from bitcoin to simply be sitting at $103,000… I really remember being really excited when we were here on the way up the first time.” (00:00)
• Bitcoin’s price is described as both high ($103,000) and disappointingly flat, especially when compared to the gains in traditional assets like gold and stocks.

2. On-Chain Flows: Who’s Selling Who’s Buying?

• Massive long-term holder selling: $180B+ worth of long-held BTC has been sold in 18 months, yet price resilience persists.
• Rotation in holders: OGs (early holders) cycling out, institutions steadily accumulating; this process is seen as near-complete. Yago: “We’ve seen over that two year period, really more like 18 months… close to $200 billion sold from long term holders. And that’s in addition to the vast majority of selling… from newer holders. The price is still overall up and maintaining a steady position.” (01:19)

3. Market Structure & The Stablecoin Debate

• Wintermute alleges stalling stablecoin inflows; Yago disagrees, citing on-chain evidence of continued growth in stablecoins and ETFs.
• Market mechanics: New capital is entering, but the number of tradable assets is skyrocketing, diluting effect per token and causing much of that liquidity to be sidelined (“stablecoins…being used for trading but not for investing.”) (04:35)
• Memories of “the good old fashioned washing machine”—tokens rotating among traders, leverage increasing, and exchanges absorbing most liquidity as retail gets “rinsed”.

4. Technical Analysis & Four-Year Cycle Narrative

• Key technical levels: Bitcoin is flirting with its 50-week moving average, which often precedes big moves, but not always further downside. Scott and Yago are skeptical of technical “doom” narratives. Yago: “If you look at those arrows, if you look at the places where it’s touched that line, it tends to portend a significant up market, not a significant down.” (06:56)
• “Four year cycle” psychology: Many market participants anchored to the halving-derived cycle (top the year after the halving, then two-year bear). This consensus is driving extra caution and risk aversion. Yago: “The psychological impact … no one wants to go risk on right now ... they’re very worried about being caught offsides, basically becoming exit liquidity in what is now going to be a two year drawdown.” (07:19)
  • Prediction: If Bitcoin holds strong through December or rises in Q1, the “four year cycle is dead” narrative will emerge as the new bullish driver.

5. Bullish and Bearish Playbooks

• Frequent corrections, no real trend: Since FTX, numerous 20–30% corrections, but overall ranging action.
  Scott: “We do this five to ten times in every bull market unquestionably and still complete fear and panic.” (09:56)

• Best-performing asset status challenged: Bitcoin’s CAGR has come down, now ~18% vs. 9% in stocks, but perception of alpha is waning. Investing in Bitcoin is still “no bad bet” as long as you have time. Scott: “There’s really never been a bad time to buy bitcoin if you at least are willing to hold a couple of years.” (12:58)

• Bullish case (Yago’s “Bullish Playbook,” 14:47):

  1. MicroStrategy (now ‘Strategy’) enters S&P 500: Massive inflows to buy more BTC by major treasury companies.
  2. End of rotation: Institutional accumulation overtakes OG selling.
  3. Narrative flip: Four-year cycle declared dead; a new “supercycle” narrative drives next leg up.

• Bearish signals: Ongoing sideways action, still some selling to come, and no new trending bull market yet.

6. Macro Environment & Liquidity

• Discussion on upcoming interest rate cuts, US job market weakness, and how global liquidity could return—possibly fueling both a new narrative and price movement.

7. Institutions vs. Retail: The Shift in Market Power

• Institutions circling: Retail and crypto natives feeling pain as institutions wait to accumulate at “cheap” prices. Scott: “We’re just like, we don’t matter. Like what your friend is doing in DeFi is not moving this market in any way, shape or form.” (19:18)
• Market sizing: Bitcoin dwarfs all of DeFi in market cap, emphasizing how little retail actually moves macro price.

8. The Ripple Deal: A Cautionary Tale

• Fortress/Citadel invest $500M at $40B valuation; Ripple holds $80B in XRP tokens, effectively giving buyers a “50% discount.”
• Yago’s take: This is “bearish”—huge investments happen at a valuation that assumes much of the treasury tokens are illiquid or overvalued.
  Yago: “Raising money at a $40 billion valuation means that Fortress are valuing the value of the ripple business at minus $60 billion…” (22:23)
• Discussion around the disconnect between business development and tokenholder value; similar stories cited for EOS.
• Scott: “You were basically able to print money, sell those tokens to other people and use the sale of that token that you created to become a billionaire…” (25:46)
• Long-standing skepticism around whether big acquisitions and fintech moves ultimately accrue to token holders.

9. Final Thoughts & Market Outlook

• Sideways market likely to persist: Both agree that current conditions are likely to drag on; December and early 2026 will be the pivotal moment for a possible new trend.
• Scott’s closing: “Everybody’s gonna be looking for this big move and it’s just gonna be super boring. Who knows?” (28:48)
• Holiday humor: “You’re just gonna have more time this year to go do your Christmas shopping.” (29:18)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Seems like there is massive bearish sentiment from bitcoin to simply be sitting at $103,000.”
  — Scott (00:00)
• “Over the last two years we’ve seen $180 billion of BTC held for five years or more sold into the market.”
  — Yago (01:19)
• “Stablecoins… are being used for trading but they’re not being used for investing.”
  — Yago (04:35)
• “If you look at those arrows ... it tends to portend a significant up market, not a significant down.”
  — Yago (06:56)
• “This narrative that ... we are now heading into a bear market is based on ... the four year cycle.”
  — Yago (07:19)
• “There’s really never been a bad time to buy bitcoin if you at least are willing to hold a couple of years.”
  — Scott (12:58)
• “We’re just like, we don’t matter. Like what your friend is doing in DeFi is not moving this market in any way, shape or form.”
  — Scott (19:18)
• “Raising money at a $40 billion valuation means that Fortress are valuing the value of the ripple business at minus $60 billion.”
  — Yago (22:23)
• “You were basically able to print money, sell those tokens to other people and use the sale of that token that you created to become a billionaire…”
  — Scott (25:46)
• “Everybody’s gonna be looking for this big move and it’s just gonna be super boring. Who knows?”
  — Scott (28:48)

Important Segments & Timestamps

• Opening: Bear Market Fears & Price Discussion (00:00–02:51)
• Wintermute’s Warning & Market Liquidity Analysis (03:19–06:12)
• Technical Levels & Four-Year Cycle Psychology (06:12–10:35)
• Bullish/Bearish Scenarios & Investment Outlook (10:35–16:44)
• Institutional Rotation and Macro Picture (16:44–20:35)
• Ripple and Token-Treasury Valuations (20:35–27:05)
• Closing: Sideways Market & Final Takeaways (27:05–29:59)

Tone & Takeaway

Throughout, Scott and Yago blend analytical skepticism with dry humor, pushing back against both doom and “moon” narratives. Their tone is measured—cautiously optimistic yet clear-eyed about structural shifts in crypto. The key takeaway: don’t be swept away by cyclical lore, technical panic, or headline deals—real momentum may be slow, but the next inflection (if and when it arrives) will come from fundamental changes in flows, narrative, and institutional behaviors.

For regular listeners, this episode is a deeply informed pulse-check on the crypto zeitgeist: technicals, psychology, institutions, and the continual battle for real versus recycled capital in the digital asset world.