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- [00:02]
A
After giving renewed hope on a bounce, bitcoin and crypto markets are dumping once again with bitcoin down near $110,000. In the words of the Zen prophet Rob Schneider from the movie Waterboy, oh no, we suck again. But we all know that we're actually just trading in a range here, waiting for the market to absorb what happened last week, which was of course the greatest liquidation wipeout in the history of mankind in all markets and ever in thousands of years. Actually, just for crypto, since it has existed, we're going to unpack all of this and of course tell you exactly how the arch public algorithms behaved on my Robinhood account during this period of historic volatility and insanity. I've got Andrew and Tillman. We're going to talk through it all now. Let's go, let's go.
- [01:07]
B
Let's do.
- [01:09]
A
Good morning everybody. Yesterday we were going to 150, 000. The dump was over. No more liquidations. Life was good. And today back in the trenches, wondering what will possibly come next. I've got Andrew and Tillman. Are you guys fans of the movie Water Boy? I mean, Tillman, you played a lot of football in your life. Andrew, I mean, listen, I. I am.
- [01:32]
C
A fan of Water Boy. I've seen it a lot of times.
- [01:34]
A
Oh no, we suck again.
- [01:37]
C
Unlike Andrew, I can't memorize movies word for word, so I probably still won't know the quote that you guys, I'll give you average.
- [01:44]
B
You can do it. You can do it again. Yeah. All right.
- [01:51]
A
Well, Water Boy is one of the greatest movies of all time. I actually went to the Bucks Niners game this weekend and because the Bucs classic uniforms look exactly like the uniforms from waterboy, I saw 10 Bobby Boucher uniforms in the Ducks like light orange Mud Dogs. It was amazing. Anyways, nobody wants to hear about that. Let's talk about what's happening. Of course we have crypto market share. The 150 billion as China hits back at the United States of America. What a shocker, guys. Unbelievable. We would never thought that it could be China that would destroy the market. Nobody's buying this. I hate these narratives.
- [02:30]
B
Yeah, they don't make any sense. And. And the truth of the matter is it was just a leverage washout. Like a pure leverage washout. There were way, way, way more people that were levered in a significant way. And we saw a bunch of it on crypto where people it levered up again.
- [02:47]
A
Yeah, 250 million this morning. It's nothing compared to a casual 19 billion. Yeah, but still 250 million likes since I woke up.
- [02:56]
B
Yeah, it's. It's. Leverage is addictive. And as Caitlin Long has said so many times, a fool and his leverage, Bitcoin, are easily departed. So, yeah, I mean, we. We're in a position now where if you're using leverage, especially in crypto and certainly down the scale of altcoins, you're just a. You're. You're asking for it. I mean, it's just only a matter of time.
- [03:25]
A
So I'm not gonna say you're dumb. I'm just gonna say I hope you know, you're gambling.
- [03:29]
C
Well, listen, it's. It's not that extreme. It's. What portion of your portfolio are you using to do that? You know, if you're. If you want to play leverage, go for it. It's like playing the casino. It's fun, but as they say, don't cry in the casino. You know, casinos are built on criers, you know, and the leverage game is. Is. Is. Honestly, even most of the people who say, hey, I'm trading 100 to 1 or 500 to 1, these crazy leverage. It's really not 500 to 1. That insinuates that the amount of capital that you have is multiplied times 500. On the purchasing power side, yeah, it's magic.
- [04:08]
A
You can take a thousand bucks, and then you have a hundred thousand what.
- [04:12]
C
What they're really giving you, you're buying a range, a price range. And if the price stays inside that range, you make money. And if the price goes outside that, either they liquidate you to the downside and you lose your. The. Your account, or they liquidate you to the upside and they cut. They cap your profits. It's not an Unlimited, capped 500x trade. It's a. You can make 500x your initial investment before we liquidate this trade for you. So even the semantics of these trades are kind of, you know, suckers bets, but they get you a lot of exposure in a very short period of time, which is emotionally attractive to every human being. That's the sizzle of the steak that walks by. And if you're playing with $500 and you work three jobs and that's all you can afford, there is an allure, there is something that attracts you to this because you feel like it's the way in which you can kind of get started and make 100 grand or whatever it may be. But it's re. It's a retail extraction, like Andrew said.
- [05:20]
A
And beverage, ladies and Liquor. Three ways to go broke. The world of the family. Can't beat that one. Well, flies, floats or forget it. Go ahead, rent it.
- [05:36]
C
Yeah, the old Warren Buffett saying, you know, buy when there's blood in the streets, even when the blood is your own. Well, you know, this on, on moves like this, this is why you keep available capital on the sidelines, honestly, because Tom Lee said it best. It's a buying opportunity. Buy the dips, you know, in a bull market.
- [05:55]
A
He did, by the way, massively. He now has 2 1/2% of the Ethereum supply. Yeah, yeah.
- [06:01]
C
So why, if you believe that Bitcoin is a hedge against global inflation, you know, number go up.
- [06:13]
B
So a couple of data points that I think are important. There are some financial advisors on Twitter that I follow that aren't, you know, deep into crypto Twitter, but they straddle a line between, you know, traditional finance and, and Twitter. One of them said, and he predicted, you know, during the, the downturn on Friday that blackrock would be out in force telling people that this is an opportunity to add another 100 billion to their IBIT product. Then he followed that tweet up on Monday with, sure enough, he got a phone call. Because he runs a firm, he got a phone call from his, you know, Black Rock rep saying, hey, this is an opportunity, yada, yada, yada. So that coupled with the comments from Larry Fink this morning saying, you know, hey, we've got to get the legislation for clarity to get done. We've got to move faster associated with crypto and regulation because we can't let this moment pass effectively. BlackRock, Larry Fink, and just their philosophy at this point is nothing is going to slow this down. It's going to continue to accelerate and you better stay on board or get on board or else you're going to get left behind. And so they see this as basically nothing, you know, cool. It's a leverage washout. And everybody on crypto Twitter stays up for two days straight to talk about it. But at BlackRock, they're like, oh, look, you know, we went down by a few percentage points. That's just an opportunity to buy.
- [07:48]
A
Woke up Monday and we're like, well, 112. That's awesome. Should I buy them? That's literally what my friend said to me. They don't know that there were 19 billion in liquidations or, or that like, or that, like, you know, the Binance people just said it's all because of decentralized exchanges and they don't have insurance funds and it's Hyper Liquid's fault. And The Hyper Liquid CD CEO comes back and says your liquidations were 100x. What you're saying, you liars. Like it should be a hundred billion. Like Larry Fink and friends don't care about any of this. In fact, they would rather all of you get liquidated and all of the, the new floor be average Joe's in middle America buying IBIT in their, you know, retirement.
- [08:31]
B
What, what Larry Fink and the boys focus on is the fact that we haven't been underneath 100k in 159 days. 159 days, like that's, that's an extraordinary number. That's a much more impressive number than, oh, there was a flash crash down to 104. In 23 minutes we were back up to 113. Like that's interesting and we'll all talk about it for 72 hours and on this show. But the 159 days above 100k, that's the story that, you know, IBIT reps are telling financial advisors right now and giving them an opportunity to talk to clients, to add another half of a percent to their client portfolios in iBIT. And that, that's the first thing they were doing on Monday. They weren't talking about their S P funds, they weren't talking about that. They were talking about their IBIT fund. And pretty, pretty extraordinary stuff it is, you know, from two or three years ago when not only were they not sure, but they were certain that they should stay away from this too. We want to make sure more people buy it. We're going to make phone calls as quickly as possible on Monday. To get people into the product is something, it's really something. Over the weekend I thought too about, you know, where do we go? Of course BlackRock is going to gather enormous assets in this asset class. But where does a firm like Bitwise go five years from now? Right? So five years from now, how big is Bitwise? If they're completely committed to the crypto asset class at large, what kind of a fund company are they? If five years from now the asset class is instead of, you know, 4 trillion, it's 15 or 25 trillion. And how big is Bitwise? It's a huge, huge, huge player in the world of finance as opposed to an emerging player in the world of finance. It's, it's pretty, it's pretty interesting to think about where we're headed.
- [10:34]
C
I'm not fooled into thinking that I, I, this plagues me, this is something that literally has bothered me my entire adult life. And I'm getting close in terms of, I feel like a thesis that at least lets me rest in, in solving this. But go look at every chart. Every single chart, from the smallest, you know, fart coin to the biggest S P500, they all look the exact same. They're, they're literally the exact same chart.
- [11:04]
A
Yeah.
- [11:04]
C
And you're just sitting here thinking, how is that capital correlated? Like how is the liquidity so instantly drained across every market at the exact same time and caught that causes this cascading event? And so, you know, I've got some theories, but the point in me saying this is that if you have a scarce asset, let's just say that you, you know, bitcoin, for example, and you are a market maker, you're a large exchange, you're a large player, you supply the bid and the ask at all times to essentially fill all of the gaps in the market and provide liquidity. Well, as supply dwindles, which we have seen that as you see, these large exchanges not have a lot of supply to play that market maker role. It's, these events are buying opportunities for them. And so when you see orders go, when you see the order back book basically get instantly swallowed and you see the price just start tanking the way that it did. Someone's on the other side of those trades. And if you start to look at like what the bounce is, well, at the end of those candles, you couldn't get filled. There was no liquidity down there, Zero. So this was a cascading, engineered, cascaded event based upon algos failing and triggering each other. You know, knowing that the avalanche was gonna, if, if I'm a professional and I go out to a ski slope or a big mountain and I look at that and I go do some probing, I go, hey, if I shoot a big stick of dynamite up here, there will be an avalanche. I can guarantee it. Well, that's essentially what this was. This was an avalanche event. And the only people that got wiped out were the leverage traders. So the reason why BlackRock, the reason why everybody that's, you know, not playing the leverage game doesn't really care. And if they took advantage of it, they're actually excited about the cost that, you know, the cost basis that they picked up in those purchases. I, I, you know, this is a game of who can accumulate the most bitcoin. That's what ultimately, in my opinion, this whole thing is about. And this is a lot of bet cash on bitcoin. Not going down very much at all. And there was a lot of, there was a big pot of gold for, for some a market maker to go get. And I think that's too attractive in a scarce commodity based market not to take advantage of it because that is what you pick up as your supply to basically continue to be the market maker going forward. That is what I think happened. And the reason why I think it happened, that you can explain it that way is because think about it like this. We all think in our simple minds that there's a willing buyer and a willing seller. If I go out and sell, sell a Bitcoin, that there's an Andrew or a Scott or another human being that's actively right then buying it. But that is not the case. And you can guarantee that that's not the case because there's not perfect willing sellers or perfect willing buyers in unison across exchanges, across different securities. Like the fact that the charts look the same tells you that the demand was the same and the supply was the same. So who has enough supply to essentially, you know, engineer this type of a failure? Well, I think personally this goes back to cryptocurrency being a very unique asset class that provides Wall street some very unique mechanisms and levers to pull to have these types of engineered events. One being just like the futures market. And then the derivatives market acts like that in a lot of the tradfi scenarios, options, I think the dexes do that for crypto. And I think if you go overload a lot of money on some of these dexes, you can cause a disjointed, you know, essentially a price that gets disjointed between the decentralized exchange and the exchanges and that triggers the bots to start buying. And if you can engineer that type of a massive assault with enough capital, you can essentially guarantee to wipe out the massive, the 80% of the leverage zone. And once you have that, the avalanche has started. You just watch the chaos after that, you know.
- [15:33]
A
Yeah, Weisberger broke this down so well yesterday. It was like the whole order book. He's like, for better or for worse, it's, he's like, I built the limit up, limit down on, you know, financial systems. For better or for worse. We don't have circuit breakers here. He's like, in every single market, the entire spread, everyone's bids and asks are within a few percent of, of the price. Yeah. So this is how markets are. And if you punch through that, the atom goes to zero. Cosmos. Yeah. But what's crazy in this, it's not really zero. Nobody's filling there. It's. It's a cascade. But yeah, I mean, it's like this is not abnormal. And we have a free market here. You know, I don't think we want circuit breakers. I don't think we wanted the market to close for 24 hours when price went down.
- [16:17]
C
Well, here's what I look at. You know, if you are buying with the smart money, you, you bought that, you know, it's whether you were highly leveraged or not. And so, yes, if bitcoin goes to 125, 3 or what did we crack 126, this last push, it was like.
- [16:35]
A
Literally our title last week was like Bitcoin126 or something. Hilarious.
- [16:42]
C
So126, think about that. All, all of the simple Money said, oh, 126, we're going to 135. And, you know, they took on a bunch of leveraged positions and that's an easy, that's easy pickings. You know, do. Do the opposite of what you think the market's going to do, not what you think the market's going to do.
- [17:06]
A
That's, that's counter trade yourself. That's what I tell people.
- [17:08]
C
Counter trade yourself. That's exactly.
- [17:10]
A
If you're feeling fomo, selling how to trade your own instincts.
- [17:17]
C
Well, if you know that the market is engineered to induce emotion and you know that that emotion is the masses. It's the emotion of the masses, then you should be acting against the emotion of the masses, not with the motion of the masses.
- [17:30]
A
Yeah, I mean, but we do. Listen, before we dive more deeply into the market, I want to. We do have some potential catalysts here that are very positive. And I think it's important to remind everybody that just because a bunch of leverage got flushed didn't change anything fundamentally about the tailwinds that we have here. Morgan Stanley expanding access to crypto fund investments. This is really interesting because there's no more restrictions. Just it was available to wealth clients. This is going to literally everyone. And this was supposed to happen like Q2 of next year. It's happening tomorrow. It rushed it October 15th. Morgan Stanley, everybody's going to have access to crypto fund investments. Not sure if you guys saw this one, but Citibank confirms bitcoin and crypto custody launch in 2026. These things are kind of a big deal. Huge.
- [18:17]
B
Yeah, it is. You'll. You'll find that, you know, it's, it's no different than the NFL. The NFL is a copycat league. So is traditional finance. It's a copycat league. Everybody's going to do the same things that everybody else does because it's all commoditized. You have to offer this stuff or else people will move their assets to another organization, get better pricing because they're actually doing a move. And you know, and then you're, you're in a position where, you're in a position where if you don't offer, offer those products, you're screwed. So everything's going to be offered, you know, at large across all the big shops. And then when the big shops do it, it trickles down into the RIA space because they use those big shops, they use the back end of those shops to run their businesses. So ubiquitous across the board. I'm really interested to, to see today and tomorrow because Black Rocks funds are T plus one. I'm, I'm, I'm really interested to see what the inflows or outflows may have looked like on Monday and Tuesday this week. Really interested to see what that's going to look like because again, as I said, it's Tyrone Ross, who's the guy that, that, that said what he said about, you know, BlackRock making calls. They were out making calls on Monday, which means they're pushing for inflows. Right. After a day like Friday, they are pushing for inflows, which ergo means they're also pushing. Don't sell our product either. Right. Buy more of our product. Don't, don't have your clients get out of their products. It's an opportunity to get into the product. Right. The other thing, as per, you know, Tillman's comments, which by the way, was a long diatribe on yes, the markets are somewhat manipulated. I, I tightened it up for him.
- [20:08]
C
Is that somewhat, I guess is the word that I would call into question there.
- [20:13]
B
So you're not going to find any, you are not going to find a retail person that got filled on Bitcoin at 104. Nowhere, absolutely nowhere did that happen. You know, I could send out, hey, if you bought at 104 during the crash, you know, reply to this, nobody is going to have it.
- [20:33]
C
Well, if they did, it was $5. It wasn't anything meaningful.
- [20:36]
B
Yeah, no, nobody is going to, is going to have that, that trade. And in fact, if you, if you filled at 1 in 105, I doubt that you're going to have that trade. So, you know, the lack of liquidity down at the down.
- [20:51]
A
I've got you keep talking. I'm just gonna. I have a live. Actually a feed on your basement while we're talking. Baby Ruth, it's a live feed. Just keep talking. I just want people to also be able to see what's happening in your basement.
- [21:12]
B
You know what? Storytelling. Storytelling back in the 80s was simply unmatched. Just absolutely unmatched. Matched.
- [21:20]
A
It's a loud noise when he frees himself from those Janes.
- [21:26]
B
The Fratelli. The Fratelli brothers.
- [21:28]
A
Yeah, they.
- [21:28]
B
They concerning Small club Chunk.
- [21:32]
A
Okay, all right.
- [21:33]
B
I'm gonna mute myself.
- [21:35]
A
No, you're good. I like it. It's actually, it's, it's, it's, it's encouraging to know. I mean, you talk about the manipulated market right by. You know, we had this trader who made 160 million shorting Bitcoin like 30 minutes before the tariffs. Maybe he's just really good. But just so you guys know, he's super Giga short again from 115.
- [21:56]
C
Yeah, well, guess what? The fact that he's promoting that tells me he's probably going to get flushed the other way. I mean, look at what happened to James Wynn.
- [22:03]
A
I mean, you cannot tell people, but he's actually. You can't say that word. I'm sorry, but he, like, he is not a competent.
- [22:11]
C
I don't think anyone.
- [22:12]
A
That was. His first leverage trade ever was a billion dollars. Did you know that?
- [22:16]
C
Yes.
- [22:17]
A
He was like, I made so much money on meme coins, I thought I'd dip into leverage, dip my toes. First trade ever. A billion bucks.
- [22:23]
C
Yeah, but the mindset is the same across the board, right? The chips aren't real. They don't have real numbers on them. They're. They're just different colors. I mean, if you, if you, if you get into the mindset of like a high dollar gambler, they don't think about the denominated value of each chip. It's. They're pressing and. And when the hot. When it's hot and they're taking it. And so gambling or high leverage trading are essential game. You're going after the juice. And so he, he was after the juice, he wasn't after the money. It's. At the end of the day, it's an exercise of ego, I think, for a lot of people, because you're just wanting to be able to flaunt what you were able to do to the markets. Well, the market makes a fool out of all of us. They can stay irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent. And so, you know, these drops, I Look at as, as irrational drops like the tariffs have something to do with small crypto projects that are finding their footing with utility and signing real world deals and have just launched their main net a year ago and not, I mean, come on, it has nothing to do with them. You can't even correlate them in the slightest bit. So why would you, why wouldn't you look at this as anything other than a sale? Did you go down there and tell.
- [23:39]
B
I gave Sloth some rock?
- [23:43]
C
Listen, you don't have to give them the carrot. Not the stick, Andrew. Oh. That's all I say.
- [23:48]
B
You know me. I don't, I don't have a whole lot of carrots in my, in my bag. Got a lot of sticks. I got a lot of sticks, though. I got a lot of sticks. That's true as well. It is. People will forget, by the way, this, that, that all of this happened in a couple of months and be back to doing that they're doing. So yeah, it, where we go from here, it's the, it's the Larry Fink put. You know, if Larry Fink's out saying, hey, we got to get legislation done really fast so we can build a lot of stuff that has to do with crypto, you know, that's a Larry Fink put. So we're going higher. It's just a question of when, right? Is it three days, is three weeks, it's three months.
- [24:38]
A
Just, you know, he's also developing their own technology for the tokenization of assets because of course they are. Why would they let anyone else make money? They've been working with securitized since. So I think it's actually trying to go public. I think I saw it could be wrong or raising money.
- [24:51]
C
I wonder if it'll be successful. You know, Come on, it's a joke. That's what I mean. Like everything, it's it. He who has the gold makes the rules.
- [25:01]
A
You.
- [25:01]
C
If you flood any market with a copy, liquidity you. But here's my, here's my point. Like, if you go into these markets and that are very thinly traded, that have very little liquidity, you can test this theory for yourself. Go find a portion of the order book that you want to buy or sell and go do it. And you'll see that it doesn't move the book as much as your money thinks it does because new liquidity recognizes your order and comes in and matches it Outside liquidity. It's not, it's not the standing orders that you see when the orders place the Liquidity shifts immediately upon you making that trade. So, you know, you don't have a human being on the other side all the time. You have a market maker. And what's the intention of the market maker? The intention of the market maker is stability of price. So if, for example, there is typically a large downward move in price, the market maker should be in there supporting the price. Well, whoever engineered or whatever cascading event took out, they're. They're essentially telling us that they wiped out all their liquidity. That's why they didn't step in to make any buys, you know, and some of these altcoins you saw go down 99. Literally 99. Which means there were no buyers on the other side, all sellers. Well, that. How do the charts look the same?
- [26:22]
B
Then you have to, you have to do. If you're any sort of trader or anybody that is in markets associated with crypto, whether you're an exchange, whether retail, institutional, whatever it happens to be, you have to do a meaningful deep dive on what this looked like in real time. Because sui, going from $3 and 30 cents down to 55 cents, that's.
- [26:46]
A
That's 250.
- [26:48]
B
Yeah, that's, that's a, that's absurd. Right? Like, that's a ridiculous thing. And by the way, nobody got filled at 50 or 70 or 80 or 90. Nobody got filled. Right. So you have to decide, all right, am I going to traffic in the top three or four tokens because there is liquidity probably almost all the time, or am I going to fool around with some of these in the 10 to 15, 20, 25, which while they may have meaningful market caps, the liquidity is, is a myth, essentially. It's a myth. So you, you know, these are opportunities where you say, okay, maybe I adjust, you know, the risk that I'm willing to take, because, you know, there's a little bit of smoke and mirrors with some of this stuff. So be careful, be really careful. Again, leverage is, you know, it's almost certain death is what leverage is most of the time. So you just, you have to be extraordinarily careful. You can't sit on leverage overnight or over time. That's a really bad idea as well. You just got to be very, very, very careful with leverage. And the fact of the matter is, is that most retail folks, and even most folks that are doing it full time still can't handle it. You just have to be really careful with leverage. Really careful?
- [28:11]
C
Yeah.
- [28:12]
A
Really.
- [28:13]
C
The more volatile the asset class, more dangerous leverage is. So when you're talking about the most volatile asset class in the world. Probably not a good idea to go 500x at leverage like some of these exchanges are offering.
- [28:27]
B
I mean, you know, Coinbase has almost turned themselves into Bitmex at this point. Like, what's the difference between BitMEX in 2019 and Coinbase today? Not a whole lot, to be honest. They just increased their leverage from 10x to like 50x on perps, I believe. And that just happened in September. They basically list darn near every token that exists. So, you know, we. We've gotten to a point where Coinbase not all that different than. Than BitMEX. Right, and what was Bitmex? Bitmex was essentially a. An ongoing log of who did or who did not get liquidated on any given day. Literally. That was the Bitmex meme.
- [29:10]
A
I got liquidated.
- [29:11]
B
You got liquidated. And. And then it'd be the Arthur Hayes face with the smile. You got liqu Right, that was the meme in 17, 18, 19, 20. Right. So it is.
- [29:23]
A
You know, I got kicked off Bitmex for being American and they kept my money.
- [29:33]
B
I'm laughing with you.
- [29:34]
A
Not at my account. This is like 2017. My account 1 day just wasn't, you know, it was like, you're geo restricted or something. Your account's been canceled. It's like 10 grand in there. So more. I don't know.
- [29:48]
C
Good luck taking us to court.
- [29:49]
A
No. And then it was like, contact customer service. There's no account in your name. I'm sorry, you cannot contact customer service because we didn't have an account with your email address.
- [30:03]
C
You have been deleted from our universe.
- [30:05]
A
Meanwhile, get liquidated. They could just literally, like, rob me.
- [30:09]
B
In broad daylight instead, meanwhile, you're. You're doing interviews with Arthur himself.
- [30:17]
A
What was the. The old meme like? Like, run the stops, Daddy needs a new Lambo or something.
- [30:23]
B
Yeah, you got liquidated. It's him with the smile and the laughs.
- [30:26]
A
You know, is what it is. You know, let's, let's. But first of all, before we go into Arch Public, Peter Schiff says we're going to 75. I mean, I hope we do. After watching Arch Public Fire for the past week, I could.
- [30:48]
C
I would literally listen the buying. If you believe bitcoin's going to 750, you know, it's a buying opportunity. Whether it's at 125, 111, 75, what you're really wanting to do is just buy when every. When there's blood in the street. So you just Want to be counter. Counter mass.
- [31:08]
A
You guys did, right? I mean, this is. Well, we'll go into mine, but this looks like it's on the six hour. He bought it, sold at 120. Bought. Bought it 108. Sold at 125, bought at 111. You know, like, it's so easy. So should we talk about it? Like, because we did this in real time. Craziest situation. I actually think this is the greatest stretch stress test for a. I'm not a stressed person. It's not for me. But I think most people, if you were doing that, this was a stress test for human emotion because of the dip. But also on arch public because what happened? You guys were here. We were getting set up last week. I was with the team and I was like, let's back test a week. You know, bitcoin went straight from 114 to 125. Like, well, there were no dips, so, you know, we wouldn't have really bought anything. I was like, I want to buy the out of this stuff. We're at 126. Right? And I was like, my metric is I'm smashed. Buying 100 grand for 126. Or we beat that.
- [32:01]
B
Right?
- [32:01]
A
Because so listen, the market, like you said, a lot of people thought it was going straight to 135. I wanted to get in. I called your team. I was like, okay, we're looking good here. Let me bring up my charts. Like, we've got. These are all our algos. We've got set up over here. We got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. We had 12. We had 10 set up. I was like six hours daily. 12 hour. Yeah. So let's do the hourly.
- [32:27]
C
This is the one day chart. So it's gonna buy less frequently than some of the other ones that you have set up. But these are the types of exhaustion candles that you want to be buying on going long. If you ask yourself, like, did I. Are most of my longs taken on big green candles or on the. Or are they taking on big red candles? The answer should be big red candles. If you believe in buying the dip or getting the best average curved cost or cost curve. And so if you look at the two entries that you have and you drew a line between those, that's a very healthy sample of the price action. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So that's what you want. You want to do that repetitively over time.
- [33:14]
A
Yeah. So I wanted to tell you guys, Robinhood didn't have issues. So I'm on Robinhood, we're paying fees, but they don't have an order book like everybody else does, which can, you know, can hurt you on spread sometimes. But on a dip like this, you were able to buy them. So we had buys all the way down 110. So listen, like I was going to say before the stress test, right, we had the perfect storm, which was me saying on Tuesday last week, I want to accumulate as much as humanly possible in case we go up, and if we go down, we'll buy more. So what I did with the algorithms was I set it on the hourly and four hour to go fucking nuts and bought $30,000 of my $100,000 account on the dip to like 122 from 126, right? I was like, awesome. Of course we continue to dip, believe it or not, with all, all of that until I haven't even checked this morning. Last night, I was completely up. So we have like, unbelievable, right? So we were buying bitcoin all the way down to 110 ETH. You can see we bought the very, very lows. And we're closing those here and buying again. Incredible. Solana buying all the way down, closed twice, added more above. My cost basis on Solana and ETH is below current price. And even with all that in mind, we had the one most crazy perfect case scenario, which was that, you know, obviously this is set to buy on daily closes or candle close, hourly close, four hour close. If you guys remember, it was like 112 to 106 to 112 within an hour.
- [34:50]
B
Yeah, yeah, right.
- [34:51]
A
So like, we can look at this and be like, oh, Bitcoin went from 126 to 101 on Binance. Like, how is your cost basis on Solana only, you know, like 189? Well, because like you said, it happened so fast that nothing was buying. We are so I'm actually maybe down across entire account, 2% and deployed my entire stack and waiting for more money to get in.
- [35:13]
B
So.
- [35:14]
A
So the overarching, that's what I chose to do and I told you guys I was going to add more money. The overarching theme is without knowing anything was happening, by the way, I was only watching bitcoin because it was like Friday night and I was doing stuff and I was like, people are like, bitcoin's crashing. I didn't even know all that nonsense was happening on Cosmos and any of that. And I was just getting emails and I was like, this is the best thing ever. I'm sitting at dinner, I would not be in front of my computer buying $110,000 bitcoin. Bang bang. And remember my metric, my metric is get as much bitcoin as possible lower than 125. When a guy like me would have taken 100 grand and been like, it's my time to buy bitcoin. I'm going to buy this right now.
- [35:54]
C
Yeah. Pull up that Solana chart, if you don't mind again, then let me walk through it real quick for, for the viewers so they can see it.
- [36:00]
A
This is on the, this is the Solana six hour arb.
- [36:04]
C
Yeah. So these are six hour candles. And if you look at those two long positions that were actually three at the giant, the bottom of the giant wick, the biggest wick at 1400. Go to the 1400 timestamp and you'll see it. And then you see two more purchases there that are longs and then you see those two closeouts on the pump up. So here's the question that you ask yourself. Okay. If you're wanting to buy Solana, which you are, and you're wanting to accumulate.
- [36:31]
A
A stack 177 to 205, what a trade.
- [36:36]
C
Yeah. So if you're, if you're looking at buying Solana, right, you want to buy a healthy cost curve, you want to buy on all the dips, you don't know if those big green candles or in this case gray candles are going to exist or not. Right. You don't know whether that there's going to be a bounce or you don't know if it's going to continue to crack. But here's where this separates you from being a manual trader. If the bounce takes place, you're going to cash out. So you're going to be taking profits in a time where some of your other positions are, are in the negative, that is harvesting volatility of the market. So if you are looking at this, you say to yourself, okay, well I had two exits and four entries. So I basically have accumulated Solana on the cost curve that's at the very bottom of all the red candles, which is the best cost curve. And when the candles presented themselves to the upside giant green candles, I was able to harvest two trades off of that and pull money off the table. That's why if you have these algos set up, you really love volatile swings because action happens. You're trading and to the degree that you want to press the action, you can dial more capital in on each trade and you can take less capital off the table. In each trade, everything is completely user driven and completely customizable so that you can dial it in yourself to exactly what you want.
- [37:56]
A
But I still have, I'm checking over here, I still have 20 grand worth of Solana that we've bought.
- [38:02]
C
Correct.
- [38:03]
A
And I lighten that to improve the cost basis and had more cash to then buy a bitcoin dip this morning that fired at 8am on the 12 hour arm. 20 grand worth of Solana, that's at a cost basis of I don't know when. Okay. At a cost basis of like in the high 180s. And last week at this time, what was it, the seventh? If I had just bought Solana, I'd have been buying it at 230, 235, 240. So now own Solana at sub $190 and got cash out of it to buy more Bitcoin one.
- [38:40]
C
Correct.
- [38:41]
B
You did all of that, by the way. You did all of that completely hands free while.
- [38:46]
A
No, I, I did that. I'm a genius. I.
- [38:51]
B
So you did all of that hands free while you're doing other things, living your life.
- [38:55]
A
So taxes.
- [38:57]
B
The takeaways over the last four or five days are this one. You have significantly more of the crypto that you want to hold in your portfolio. Right. So our algorithms went and did the work that you wanted it to do at better prices than you would have done it yourself. And then secondarily, there was no version of what you were doing and what the Algos were doing that had anything to do with leverage. Scott Melker did not get liquidated. Scott Melker had no risk of being liquidated with Arch Public Products. So you're simply grabbing best prices for the best outcomes while you're having dinner on Friday or you're with your kids on Saturday, Saturday doing something, or you're at the Tampa Bay game on Sunday with your family. These are, these are all happening in the background and happening in ways again that even if you sat at your computer for 72 hours straight, you still probably couldn't pull off.
- [40:02]
C
Well, this boils it down to really a capital allocation question, which makes it a very simple question like do I want the, the buys to be more aggressive and allocate more capital, or do I want the buys to be less aggressive and, and you know, buy less capital or buy less of a position each time? That's where each individual has their own preferences. It was really interesting to go through this with you, Scott, because, you know, it was exactly what I expected. It's A very aggressive crypto mind, right? It's somebody who's not tradfi. He's. You know, you were born in the darkness and you, you love the, the. You wanted as much activity as. As the markets could give you and you got it.
- [40:43]
A
I was emailing the out of your guys.
- [40:45]
C
Oh, man, it was awesome. It was a lot of fun. And, but see, that's not in a bad way.
- [40:48]
A
So people know, like, I just, I'm like, I was anal about. I was like, okay, so, you know, we had this massive candle within one hour. Is there a way we can get this set up? So if we get, you know, that once in a decade flash crash that we happen to get the first we were doing it, then I do catch that, right? And they're like, yeah, we set up anything you want, right? So we've been tweaking and tweaking and they'll do. This isn't just because it's me. You guys do this for all your content.
- [41:11]
C
Everybody. Even a free customer.
- [41:13]
A
I didn't get a special. I didn't get a special experience. And so we tweaked it. Right? So listen, we had the craziest first week you could have ever had using anything.
- [41:22]
B
Yeah, well, you were on our, you were on with our concierge team before the call today. Like, you were, you were tweaking things before the call. So our guys are always on the ready available to not only evaluate where you're at, but where, where are you going? And okay, let's make this adjustment or that adjustment. Let's see where it goes. Let's see if.
- [41:41]
A
Yeah, like, I don't need the one hour buys anymore.
- [41:43]
B
Yeah, let's see if it satisfies what you want and then if it does, great. If not, we can make another week. That's.
- [41:48]
C
Well, let's talk about that. You just. I don't need one hour buys anymore. You're right. And why you don't need one hour buys is you had the one hour buys in your strategy because you wanted to aggressively accumulate a stack. Well, this, these dips provided that opportunity, and so now you get to adjust it. But that is the very nature of the flexibility of the software is it's a reallocation tool that you can constantly monitor and constantly use to do both buying, selling, and trading, you know, in the event that the market's moving, moving sideways.
- [42:25]
A
It was so fun to watch.
- [42:27]
C
It's addictive. Yeah, it's.
- [42:28]
A
And that's why, because I get the email, I get not only the, like I get a Trading View alert that goes off like on my phone and my thing. Then I get the Trading View email that's like your alert went off. Then I get the Robin Hood you've placed an order. Then I immediately get the Robinhood you've bought. And when it was going nuts, it was like 20 emails at a time because, like I'm firing on the six hour, the daily, the one hour, the four hour. Because, you know when it really goes and it lines up to like the daily close, you're fired.
- [42:57]
C
Yeah, no, it's, it's very addictive. We, we recognize that in ourselves very early in this game. And I think that one of the things we love to, to tell people is like, seeing is believing. You if you've never traded automation before and you've heard about it and you've heard the terms kind of high frequency trading or automated trading or algos or whatever it may be, some people call them bots. You, you probably have a misunderstanding of what we're offering. It's too robust, too flexible. It's a very vast toolbox that allows you to pretty much do anything that you want in the markets. And so seeing is believing. And we have recognized that and that's why we've offered our product for free. So if you are interested in seeing, you can come to our website, sign up. We will get you set up for absolutely no cost whatsoever. And if you trade less than $10,000 a year or accumulate less than $10,000 a Year in crypto, it will always be free to you. So the only thing that our software does on the free packages is when you get over that threshold, it waits another. It waits a calendar year before you have that allocation again. But other than that, it's completely the exact version of the paid version, minus the caps. So if you want to see what we're talking about and you want to use it and you want to have a lot of help in doing so, our team is standing by and our free product is ready to be used just quickly.
- [44:25]
A
Somebody commented on Twitter so they won't see if I write a response. I want to set up an account with Arch. I need Robinhood. Correct. You need Robinhood, Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini and more coming. So, no, not necessarily. I wanted to do it with Robin Hood because I like, I, I got one of my good friends is over there and we wanted to, you know, YOLO together and figured out it was a good reason to get onboarded to Robinhood. But you do not necessarily need Robinhood and I do want to answer this one question someone asked, is there evidence or even back testing we can see for its performance in a bear market?
- [44:56]
B
So the answer to that is, frankly, on our website we have a case study that says trading all time highs three ways, right? So if you're at all time highs, generally speaking, you're going to find yourself in a bear market sooner or later. And so we have numbers that back that up in a case study. Secondarily, you can go use our free product and you can use trading view to test any time period in any way, shape or form. So pick a absolute bear market lows and test the product. Test several versions of it.
- [45:28]
C
Well, and here's the best, here's the best part of the testing is a lot of people even hear what you're saying, Andrew. And I know they're thinking, well if I test a time period and I don't like it, then it doesn't work for that time period. No, you can adjust it to work for that time period. That's the whole key, that's the whole benefit here, is that you can take any stretch of time and you can create your own set of rules that would have worked for that time period. And if that time period presents itself in the future, you're going to have a fishing line in the water ready to take advantage of that also.
- [46:02]
A
I mean, it's just about how like willing you are to buy and how much you wanted to buy and what your parameters are. Like if you don't believe you're in a bear market and set 1% dip buys, you might run out of money pretty quick. If you are, you know, you have to take some like actual responsibility for how the thing works. If you're like, I'm in a bear market and I think we're going to have One of those 50% retraces, you set some really wide things and you're going to be buying the shit out of it all the way down with your full allocation. Right?
- [46:31]
C
That's right. And that's where this becomes a much more disciplined approach because those rules are limiting. For example, you know, this is a good exercise. If you have a trade on whether it's margin or not and the price goes down by 20% in that time period. A weak candle, for example, and you have a trigger of every time in a week the price goes down more than 5% trigger that event. Well, you only picked up one unit of exposure because that is a one candle that was 20%. And your rule is per candle. Whereas if you're smash buying. You're allocating a lot more to that candle because you're undisciplined and it's emotion and all that. And it takes a lot of discipline to sit there and buy six purchases over the weekend when you're doing other things. So this is just a natural way for you to be accountable and set those accountability standards into the software to where it's managing the capital allocation per trade in a way that you don't run out of money if you don't want. If you want each trade to be $10 and you've got a hundred grand in your account, well, you're never going to run out of money.
- [47:42]
A
Right?
- [47:43]
C
There's not enough dips, there's not enough candles. But the point is, is that you can re engineer it at any given point. And let's say your capital goes from 100% cash, 0% crypto to being 50% cash, 50% crypto. Well, you go in and you, like you did, you pull off specific time frames that are going to stop aggressively accumulating and focus more on trading the stack that you've accumulated.
- [48:09]
A
I mean, we back tested, we literally did the back testing, like when I was discussing it and it was like, yeah, this, you know, 200 times a year, this one would fire. Right. If I kept it like, right. We could have done 20 times in a day because we had six months of volatility in a day. Right? So like, yeah, but that still could end up being 200 times a year because there might be six months where Bitcoin doesn't move 4%. You know, it happens all the time. We just got, I got the full experience in one week. It was awesome.
- [48:39]
B
Arch public clients find themselves. They don't message us oftentimes when the markets are going higher. They message us with smiley faces when the markets are going lower because they're like, all right, it's about to hit down 2.1%. Down 2.1%. Okay. I hear all the alarm bells going off. I'm so excited. I hear the ding, ding, ding. So I'm getting, I'm getting trades. So I'll just read something from a, from a client that, that was mentioned yesterday to one of our concierge team says, love seeing the big volume of trades executed so well while I was chilling with friends, watching college foot college football and such, not paying attention to the market. Just as you guys advertise. Happy client. Thank you. Right. So it is. People are somehow. It moves their mind from I want new all Time highs to. These are assets that I want to accumulate. And I know that I've set my percentages a certain way, so I'm hoping that that percentage is hit so I can get great executions, which, you know, levels out my cost curve. And that's how people think when they start using our tools.
- [49:46]
A
Yeah.
- [49:46]
C
And when you have there's a setting in the tools that say, don't ever sell below my cost basis. And so if you have that checked anytime you get a sell notification, you made money anytime, because it's not going to sell unless you're. And so it becomes this positive reinforcement that every time you get a notification, you're either buying a great dip or you're taking some money off the table, which is obviously, you know, that's the point of it. Like to harvest the volatility of the market if you don't have a tool. If you've heard all of the Michael Saylor's of the world, the KOLs that are sitting above me talk about how volatility is a feature of this market and not a liability of the market, ask yourself this simple question, what am I doing to harvest that volatility? And if you don't have a really good answer for that, you should at least come try our free product. Because I think at the very least you're going to see what a lot of people use as a yield tool or a volatility harvesting tool.
- [50:50]
A
Yeah, it's. It's awesome. It's so much fun to watch. It's like uncomfortably fun to watch. It was better than the football game that I was at, you know, to refresh the email, you know, every once in a while to see if you got it. It's a good time. I really do highly recommend it. For me, the experience has been great doing it with Robinhood, but I know, equally good. And depending on the market you're in on all of the other platforms. But it was interesting to see that Robinhood was filling, you know, sub. 110, 110, 111. People are asking how much we started with. We started with 100 grand. I have deployed $98,000 of that hundred grand because I'm a psychopath. Not highly recommended, but that's because as I told you, I'm going, no, I said as I told you guys from day one, that's not my. I want, we're gonna try it. And like I said, I needed to be. I wanted to be able to show something. I'm in a different position today. I didn't know what was going to happen to your point? So I loaded up really fast just to make sure that we could show some trades, and here we are, still doing well.
- [51:54]
C
And here's the point. If it was your last 100 grand, it'd be a different story. But you said, I want to aggressively purchase 100 grand, and then I'll put more money in to make more trades. So it's. It's just a matter of, again, what you want to do. If this is like an expert excavator. If you want to dig a small hole, stop after one bucketful. If you want to dig a big hole, keep digging.
- [52:15]
A
When we were kids, and you would dig a hole and they would tell you, get all the way to China.
- [52:20]
C
Yeah, yeah, go all the way.
- [52:21]
A
That's the hole I'm digging right here, baby. This is not a shallow excavation that we're going for right now. All right, guys, anything else I missed before I let you go? Oh, side up, right?
- [52:35]
B
Yep.
- [52:38]
A
Yeah. And with the guys, just, you know, we're going to keep updating this every week. Like, this is full transparency. There will be times we're down, there's going to be times we're up. But just know that my benchmark was adding more bitcoin without having to stare at screens 24 7. And price was 126 when we started.
- [52:55]
B
That's right. Right. Good stuff. Good stuff all around. Absolutely. A great stress test, as you mentioned.
- [53:04]
A
I really want to know what you make those guys stop in the basement.
- [53:09]
B
I walked down there and I said, don't do anything for another 40 minutes. They said, oh, okay. All right.
- [53:17]
A
Chains.
- [53:18]
B
Yeah.
- [53:20]
C
Did you give them permission to breathe? I mean, you're not going to go down there to be passed down on the floor, you know?
- [53:25]
B
Well, and my fiance is like, you know, you. They're working down there. Did you really talk to her? And I barked back at her. I said, it's my house. Then I walked back in here and I sat back down. What do you mean? What did I say to him?
- [53:38]
A
He turned the whole camera off. He turned the sound like we were in the dark there, man. Anything could have been happening.
- [53:43]
C
He didn't want any incriminating evidence. I mean, screaming his head off, probably. They quiet down quick. I'll say that there's another.
- [53:53]
A
Banging. Put him in the freezer with the dead bodies down there with the Fratelli. What's going on? All right, guys, that is all we have for you today. Thank you for joining. I can't wait to update this next week once. Robinhood lets me get more money. Now all of a sudden that way, I literally called you guys. I'm like, damn it, this better not dip before my money hits the account. Stay above 110. Come on, let's go. So we'll see.
- [54:19]
C
Keep your powder dry. There's probably more coming.
- [54:23]
A
I agree with that. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you, Tillman. We'll see you guys next week. Bye. If your mobile number was stolen and your passwords were reset, would you even know it until it was too late? Your crypto wallets, exchanges, email, bank, cloud accounts gone because someone took over your phone number and hijacked your two factor authentication. This is called a SIM swap attack. And in the crypto world, it's one of the most devastating ways to get hacked. It's not rare. It happens every single day. That's why I've personally been a customer of Afani for years. In fact, I've been with them since before it was even called Afani. When I was the victim of a SIM swap and my friend Charlie Shrem introduced me to the CEO and founder Haseeb, I trusted them with my security first, and because I believed in it so much, I later became an investor in the company as well. The funny is built to stop SIM swaps, protect your privacy, and back you with $5 million in insurance just in case. They even include complimentary international data roaming so you can stay secure but also stay connected. All around the world. Top crypto investors, traders, influencers, public figures and financial institutions. Institutions use Afani because one attack can be so, so costly. Afani is offering a discount for our community. And to learn more, go to afani.com ScottMelker to get a secure mobile service with peace of mind. That's E f a n I.coms C-O-T t m e l k dash e r. You can also find the link in the description and show notes. In crypto security isn't optional, it's survival.