Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets

Episode: Bitcoin & Crypto DUMP! Should We Be Worried?
Host: Scott Melker
Date: September 22, 2025
Guests: Dave, Mike, and James
Theme: Dissecting the recent sharp downturn in the crypto markets, the spike in gold prices, and larger macroeconomic forces at play.

Episode Overview

In this jam-packed Macro Monday, Scott Melker gathers a panel of well-known macro and crypto analysts—Dave, Mike, and James—to break down the overnight "dump" in Bitcoin and altcoins, its parallels to previous cycles, why gold is soaring to new highs, and whether this signals deeper macro trouble. The crew debates whether we’re seeing another typical leverage flush, the start of a broader unwind, or the early signals of a more dramatic economic turn. The conversation zooms out to cover inflation, the role of central banks, fiscal policy risks, risk assets, and changing investor psychology.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Anatomy of the Crypto Dump

Timestamps: 01:00 – 09:44

• The Dump:
  Bitcoin dipped below 113 (thousands), with altcoins falling even harder. Scott notes it as the largest round of Bitcoin liquidations since December 2024; ETH's biggest since May 2021.
• Liquidation Cascade:
  • Dave explains the selloff was a classic “liquidation cascade” (04:02)—over $300M in Bitcoin liquidations, almost $500M in Ethereum, with Bybit being the epicenter (04:02–06:00).
  • Dave: “This was a coordinated liquidation cascade. …Perps went to the same spot as spot… Immediate, enormous volatility, then low volatility.” (06:20)
  • The dump was “engineered” (07:46), possibly manipulative, and the bulk played out in under five minutes.
• Market Psychology:
  Dave: “Anyone who looks at this as meaningful… talk to me in three days. If we rally, okay; if we fall through the floor, it means more. But what happens at 3 or 4 a.m. isn’t determinative of the next market phase.” (08:12)
• Practical Take:
  The panel leans toward “buy the dip,” especially on blue-chip coins—though Mike is skeptical, warning about growing willingness to short among veteran traders.

2. Gold’s Record Rally vs. Crypto Underperformance

Timestamps: 09:50 – 14:33

• Gold Breaks All-Time High:
  Gold trades above $3,700, up 42% YTD; outperforming crypto even on a risk/vol basis.
  • Mike: “A little more weakness in highly volatile cryptocurrencies legitimizes gold’s rally. The best year for gold since 1979... And that’s telling me there’s a problem here.” (10:10)
• Comparing Cycles:
  Mike and Dave contrast the ‘70s/’80s inflation (driven by oil shocks) with today’s money printing—a “structural difference” that makes direct comparison difficult. (12:59)
• Why is Gold So Hot?:
  Gold’s rally not fueled by “hot money” (managed futures/ETFs/crowds), but possibly by central banks and broader macro worries. $3,500 now solid support, $4,000 hard resistance.

3. The Macro Backdrop: Inflation, GDP, and Fiscal Traps

Timestamps: 14:05 – 24:49

• Nominal vs. Real Growth:
  Scott: “US nominal GDP is up 54% since 2020…but real GDP changed just 13%. The rest must be inflation.” (14:37)
  • Dave connects rampant asset-price inflation to money-printing; “Gold is sniffing that out perfectly.”
• Crypto Market Structure:
  Dave: “About a hundred crypto assets make up almost all trading...99.99% are valueless... Just like the NASDAQ in the dotcom bubble.” (16:20–18:30)
• Programmatic Selloff:
  Uniquely, this weekend’s crash “was all programmatic—boom, done. Less than five minutes. Not the same as other crashes.” (18:30)

4. Bond Markets, Yield Curve, and Central Bank Policy

Timestamps: 21:52 – 24:25

• Fed’s “Third Mandate”:
  James: “Fed is whispering about a third mandate: keep a lid on long-term bond yields… Basically, yield curve control—more money printing to keep yields down.” (21:52)
• Stagflation Signs:
  Markets are in flux: stocks up, oil down, gold up, bitcoin down—a “mishmash of conflicting signals.” (24:25)
• Paradox:
  James: “Officials are trapped by the math of the situation…They know it. Whispering, ‘Oh, we’re close enough to 2% inflation.’ We’re nowhere near…”

5. The Resilience and Risks in Bitcoin’s Market Structure

Timestamps: 24:52 – 28:48

• Bitcoin vs. Other Assets:
  Dave: “Total hash rate peaked—network stronger than ever. Unlike gold, where supply can react to price, Bitcoin’s emission is fixed. Other coins? 99% are speculative, no basis.” (24:52)
• ETF & Index Investing:
  The ability to buy crypto via indices or ETFs (in the works with SEC) was highlighted as a structural shift—parallels to S&P performance and survivor bias: “Crypto’s future = Mag 7, not Mag 500.” (26:00–28:00)

6. Broader Macro Risk and the Outlook for Markets

Timestamps: 31:04 – 39:53

• Mike’s Big Picture:
  Mike sees echoes of 1929 and expects “a 50% plus correction in Bitcoin and a normal 50% correction in U.S. equities sometime ahead.”
  • “We have to flush out 90% of this stuff, come to a decent base… Might coincide with the U.S. stock market doing a normal 50% correction.” (28:48)
• Dave’s Counterpoint:
  Dave tempers: “Compared to four years ago, a similar size liquidation cascade only took prices down 12% now vs. 50% then. So don’t just look at price—liquidity & structure have changed.” (31:04)
• Fed Policy & Economic Signals:
  James shares Bloomberg’s Anna Wong's view: “FOMC penciling in another 25bp cut, but skipping October—strong consumption, but expect hotter CPI… Baseline is only 50bp of cuts this year.” (32:56)
  • Some panel skepticism: “Jobs numbers repeatedly revised… It’s just hard for me to get there.” – James (36:25)
• Stagflation & Fiscal Dominance:
  Scott: “All roads point to stagflation. Powell looked like he’d just gone 10 rounds with Tyson… Jobs are bad and we’re giving up on inflation—that’s what it sounded like.” (37:10)

7. Fiscal Policy, Deficit, and the Inflation Debate

Timestamps: 39:53 – 45:55

• Government Policy Madness:
  Dave rips into politicians who pitch deficit spending as anti-inflationary—accusing both parties of missing the fiscal root of inflation.
  • “The Fed isn’t the driver here—it’s the fiscal deficit and constant spending.” (42:08)
  • “If you want to control deficits, the best thing is to cut rates… [otherwise] debt service explodes." (42:35)
• Structural Problems:
  The panel agrees that the U.S. is in a structural trap—forced to keep printing and monetizing debt to keep the music playing, with little chance of meaningful deficit reduction.

8. Risk, Complacency, and the Coming Market Reckoning

Timestamps: 45:55 – 56:19

• “It’s Early, But…”
  Signs of investor complacency:
  • Corporate bond spreads are at historic lows; everyone is “reaching for yield.”
  • Dave: “Every crash happens after a period of complacency… right now it feels early, but that chart [on credit spreads] should concern everyone.” (55:11)
• Potential Triggers:
  September/October always harrowing; fiscal year closing could compound risk. “Twice in our history, big crashes both occurred at the end of October for a reason.” (46:05)

9. Where Does Crypto Go from Here?

Timestamps: 57:09 – End

• Money Printing Will Continue:
  • “Fact is, we printed $2T in 2024. Will print $1.8T in 2025. CBO says $1.5–2T a year for the next decade.” (57:09)
• Gold as Denominator Asset:
  Dave: “Gold isn’t risk-off, it’s a denominator asset in a world of printing. Expect 8%–10% annual compounding in gold over the next decade.” (58:09)
  • “Assets tethered to earnings (that don’t keep up) will underperform; those with compelling stories (AI, Bitcoin) could outperform.” (59:00)
• Crypto Shakeout:
  A consensus emerges that 90%+ of crypto assets will be flushed out, with only the fundamentally sound surviving, similar to the dotcom era.
  • Mike: “We need a flushing out. That’ll be a nice bottom—maybe it’s starting now, maybe not.” (59:43)
  • Dave: “What’s healthy is if, during corrections, quality coins fall less and bounce harder than hype coins.” (61:00)
• Banters and Jokes:
  • Scott: “As a final thought—I think all of you are wrong. Fart coin to a trillion!” (62:09)
  • Dave: “Once again, Bitcoin will be higher next Monday.” (62:27)
• Closing Congratulations:
  Scott congratulates James on his board role at Strive and hints at their strategic Bitcoin treasury acquisition (63:12).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dave (on the dump):
  "This was a coordinated liquidation cascade... Programmatic—boom, done." (06:20–18:30)
• Mike (on gold):
  “This is the best year for gold since 1979… And that’s telling me there’s a problem here.” (10:10)
• James (on monetary policy):
  “The Fed is absolutely trapped by the math of the situation and they know it.” (21:52)
• Scott:
  “All roads point to stagflation right now. Powell looked like he’d just gone 10 rounds with Tyson in his prime.” (37:10)
• Dave:
  "The Fed isn't the driver here—it's the fiscal deficit and constant spending." (42:08)
• Mike:
  “Every crash happens after a period of complacency… right now it feels early, but that chart should concern everyone.” (55:11)
• James:
  “Let’s not quibble over performance… Gold is not a risk-off asset. Gold is a denominator asset from that printing point.” (58:08)
• Dave:
  “More money is made in bear markets than in bull markets by buying the stuff that actually matters…” (49:51)
• Scott (joking):
  “I think all of you are wrong. Fart coin to a trillion.” (62:14)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Crypto Dump/liquidation analysis: 01:00–09:44
• Gold surges, compares to crypto: 09:50–14:33
• Macro money printing, inflation: 14:05–24:49
• Fed, bonds, yield curve talk: 21:52–24:25
• Bitcoin network vs. gold & crypto index: 24:52–28:48
• Macro "doom": correction risks and cycles: 31:04–39:53
• Deficit, policy, inflation debate: 39:53–45:55
• Investor psychology & crash signals: 45:55–56:19
• Money printing, gold, and the shakeout: 57:09–58:09+
• Final banter & future outlook: 62:09–end

Takeaways for Listeners

• The recent crypto dump was largely mechanical, not fundamentally driven—programmatic liquidations in highly leveraged markets.
• Gold’s strength is a macro warning—pointing at structural risks from ongoing money printing and deficits.
• Inflation is being driven more by fiscal excess than monetary policy; central banks are increasingly trapped.
• Most altcoins remain junk, destined for the dustbin; long-term winners will emerge, but require deep research.
• Echoes of prior bubbles and crashes abound, though structural, liquidity, and policy differences exist this cycle.
• Investor psychology is swinging from FOMO to cautious, with more seasoned traders looking for short opportunities and “dry powder.”
• Big-picture: The panel expects continued volatility, more market flushes, and a need to be nimble and selective.

For more macro breakdowns, crypto analysis, and real talk from top minds: Next Macro Monday on The Wolf Of All Streets.