Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets

Title: Bitcoin Drops Below $88K Amid Gov Shutdown! Is The Market About To Crack?

Host: Scott Melker
Date: January 26, 2026
Guests: Mike, Dave, James

Episode Overview

This “Macro Monday” conversation, hosted by Scott Melker in a snowy New York City, brings together regular guests Mike, Dave, and James to decode a storm of macroeconomic events. The team discusses the recent drop of Bitcoin below $88K, an imminent U.S. government shutdown, rising precious metals, volatile geopolitics, shifting Treasury yields, and what it all could mean for risk assets like Bitcoin and gold. The episode is peppered with frank banter, historical perspective, and a keen focus on rotation trades as markets flash both warning signs and wild speculation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Macro Mess: Setting the Scene

• [00:01] Scott kicks off with a run-down of headline chaos: Bitcoin’s drop below $88K, looming government shutdown, proposed tariffs, President Trump’s policy moves, and more—all against the surging backdrop of gold and silver.
• “We’re going to talk about all of that and more here on Macro Monday with Mike, Dave and James.” (Scott, 00:40)

Notable Quote:

“You just move to places where you don’t have to live in the snow. You can just go to places with sun and no taxes.” (Scott, 01:15)

2. The Bank of Japan & Global Bond Turbulence

• [05:11] Focus shifts to Japan, where the 40-year bond yield jumps over 4%, its first time in three decades.
• James: Japan’s “free money ATM” era is over; central banks are intervening to prevent a disorderly selloff.
• Key Mechanism: U.S. Treasury acts not out of goodwill for the yen but to avoid Japan selling U.S. Treasuries.

Notable Quote:

“It sounds like they’re defending the yen, but it’s defending itself.” (James, 10:31)

• Discussion: Carry trades and their unwinding; foundational concerns about long-end rates and implications for global liquidity.

3. The Debasement Trade and Bitcoin’s Perception

• [12:09] Panel agrees: in currency debasement environments (printing money to defend currencies), traditional wisdom is to seek out gold…but Bitcoin is not yet perceived as a true “safe haven.”
• James: Frustration over Bitcoin still treated as a risk asset.
• Mike: Gold’s outperformance in the short-term has been clear, but “on the other side…bitcoin will reflect that [debasement].”

Notable Quote:

“It’s going to continue to be like that until the majority of investors understand it to be the opposite.” (James, 12:38)

• Sentiment: If the market sells off hard, Bitcoin will likely fall in tandem, barring a true banking crisis.

4. Silver’s Parabolic Move and Normie FOMO

• [14:52] Dave notes a flood of retail interest in silver: “When you start having normies come out…should I be buying silver here?...That concerns me.”
• Hands-on Moment: Dave physically produces a box of old silver coins, highlighting sentimental and speculative attachment.

Notable Quote:

“Silver is essentially was a beach ball being held underwater from multiple times and they’ve just lost control of it.” (Dave, 16:57)

• Analysis: Structural supply/demand imbalance for silver; demand far outstripping supply; industrial and monetary demand growing.

5. The Real Causes Behind Market Moves

• [18:00] Mike and Dave debate history: major moves in precious metals often rooted in monetary expansion.
• The “Copernicus question”: Is it metals rising, or fiat currencies falling?
• Gold/silver ratio historical context; hedging strategies.

6. Volatility & Rotation: What Next?

• [22:54] Discussion returns to Bitcoin: Despondency in crypto (“Greed and Fear at 20”), while stocks at 50—sentiment is at extremes.
• “We’re in a trading range.” (Dave, 22:58) Bitcoin stuck until a decisive breakout; risk on/risk off sentiment rules.

Notable Quote:

“We have months left…when it rolls over…the people who are buying Silver aren’t jumping into TLT. I think that you will see a rotation and it will depend on what…” (Dave, 55:02)

7. U.S. Government Shutdown: Real Impact

• [39:26] Looming government shutdown has spiked from a 9% to 80% probability in 12 hours (per PolyMarket).
• Dave: Markets (esp. stocks) don’t care much; they “like gridlock.”
• James: For crypto, it’s different—lack of legislative clarity hurts; risk assets more sensitive to government dysfunction.

Notable Quote:

“A shutdown just delays…it doesn’t change anything. It’s a beach ball under the water. It doesn’t change anything.” (Dave, 46:57)

• Macro Take: U.S. spending is a runaway train; shutdowns change little at the macro level ("Nothing stops this train" - meme).

8. Long Bonds, Safety Trades & The Future

• [50:30] James shares a live chart of TLT (20-30 year U.S. Treasuries), explaining safety trades vs. long-term inflation risks.
• Mike: Long bonds as appreciating puts; the next “big trade.”
• Caution: These aren’t free lunches—long bonds face real debasement risk over time.

Notable Quote:

“You are being debased, you know, and that’s the point. So it’s a trade.” (James, 53:27)

9. Where Does the Money Rotate?

• [55:02] Scott presses the central question: If gold/silver peak, where does the new money go?
• Dave: “I believe it will [rotate into Bitcoin]. But people are so impatient…until leverage money is made and people get actually hurt.”
• Mike: Silver’s volatility will “rip the faces off bulls and bears.”
• James: Bitcoin still in “crypto winter,” but next narrative could reawaken flows.

10. Closing Reflections & Warnings

• [57:32] Mike and Dave reference silver’s technical extremes—parabolic moves are usually preludes to sharp corrections.
• Warning: High-leverage players will get burned; both bulls and bears vulnerable.

Notable Quote:

“If you’re playing on leverage, you are…” (Dave, 60:31)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 00:40 | Scott | “We’re going to talk about all of that and more here on Macro Monday…” | | 10:31 | James | “It sounds like they’re defending the yen, but it’s defending itself.” | | 12:38 | James | “It’s going to continue to be like that until the majority of investors understand it to be the opposite.” | | 14:52 | Dave | “When you start having normies come out…should I be buying silver here?...That concerns me.” | | 16:57 | Dave | “Silver is essentially was a beach ball being held underwater…they’ve just lost control of it.” | | 22:58 | Dave | “We’re in a trading range.” | | 46:57 | Dave | “A shutdown just delays…it doesn’t change anything. It’s a beach ball under the water.” | | 53:27 | James | “You are being debased…So it’s a trade.” | | 55:02 | Dave | “I believe it will [rotate into Bitcoin]. But people are so impatient…” | | 60:31 | Dave | “If you’re playing on leverage, you are…” |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:01–02:00 — Overview of market chaos & panel introductions
• 05:11–12:09 — Japanese bond yields & implications for the global market
• 14:39–21:40 — The parabolic rally in silver and gold
• 22:54–32:00 — Risk sentiment and Bitcoin/crypto trading ranges
• 39:26–48:47 — Deep dive: U.S. government shutdown, spending dysfunction, and market impact
• 50:30–54:54 — Safety trades in Treasuries, long bonds, and inflation risk
• 55:02–62:07 — Rotation flows: Where does the next capital wave land after precious metals peak?
• 60:31–62:07 — Final warnings on leverage, volatility, and macro narratives

Tone & Closing

The energy was conversational but tense—equal parts seasoned skepticism and gallows humor as the macro environment grows ever more chaotic. While Bitcoin and crypto remain embattled and out of favor in the current rotation, all guests agree: volatility is only picking up, the government’s debt path is set, and the next macro narrative is just one crisis away.

Conclusion:

If you’re looking for actionable signals, don’t expect clarity amid the noise—plan for volatility, watch for forced liquidations, and pick your battles one trade at a time. The government’s not coming to save markets, and “nothing stops this train.”

For next week: Will we be podcasting under a government shutdown and $300 silver? Stay tuned…