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- [00:04]
A
Bitcoin is dumping even as the Fed cut rates, apparently now threatening our crypto rally because we live in the Upside Down. Last I checked, it was supposed to be bullish for bitcoin when rate cuts happen. We got the move up and then of course a move right down afterwards. Jerome Powell was predictably unpredictable. He had some hawkish comments, some dovish comments, took some shots at Trump about jobs, and of course was very, very ambiguous about what's coming in the future for more rate cuts. Markets are all over the place. Luckily we've got Marcus Thielen here to help us unpack all of it. Let's go, let's go.
- [00:59]
Let's. What is up everybody? I hope that you are having a wonderful morning today. It is Thursday and the talk of the town obviously was the Fed yesterday. I'm going to dig into that with Marcus also his thesis on everything that is happening right now in markets. He might be a little more bearish than me, I might be a little more bullish still, so it should be a good conversation. Maybe he can convince me to sell everything and wait to buy the bottom Once again, we do have an awesome sponsor read today. Ether Fi. I actually had the CEO of either Fi on the show on Crypto Town hall the other day and we talked. It was very funny. I think my first question was, you know, so give me the tldr. What are you guys trying to pull off? And he was like very humbly, kind of giggled and said we're just going to replace the entire banking system on decentralized Rails. But one of the things that they were building that I found was really interesting was their credit card that they're offering. I'm going to tell you what they said about it. So most people think of crypto as something you hold on an exchange or in a wallet. But Ether Fi is taking a different approach, letting users put their crypto to work while making everyday spending simpler. With Ether Fi's collateral backed spend card, users can earn on chain, yield on eligible assets, get 3% cash back on purchases, and even borrow against their crypto at competitive rates, all while staying in full control of their keys. Instead of juggling conversions traditional off ramps, users can choose between direct pay or borrow mode and use their crypto for real world spending anywhere Visa is accepted. It brings the mechanics of defi into ordinary life without giving up self custody. To check eligibility, visit Ether Fi. Check out my link in the description to sign up. Terms and conditions apply. Crypto assets may lose value. This is a really cool product actually Much different than the normal credit card because you can actually collateralize the assets that are in your portfolio. So I highly recommend that you check that out. Gonna go ahead now and bring on Marcus, who's been patiently waiting in the wings. Good morning, sir.
- [02:51]
B
Hey, how are you? How are things?
- [02:53]
A
I'm doing great, man. Can't complain. I know that you and I might have some slightly different takes, but I'm very cautious with the market right here. What do we got here? Bitcoin. 90,000. Went up to about 94. Kind of saw a move back. I always joke that, you know, the first reaction of the market to news like a Fed meeting is usually wrong. So if I see things go up quickly, I just assume that it's probably like, a very quick short and you should see a reset. We kind of just have ended right back around 90,000.
- [03:30]
I can't hear Marcus, if you guys can. He's frozen. But sorry, I didn't exactly ask you a direct question. Just kind of your comments on the price action there.
- [03:40]
B
Yeah, so I think, you know, the market, of course, now looking, you know, what. What Powell actually said, you know, Ken Powell, you know, really move the needle here. And it's not just about Powell. Right. It's about the committee. And I think that's where a little bit the confusion is. You know, when Powell started to talk, he, of course, was a little bit more sort of like, first of all, he was a little bit more, you know, neutral. And I think over the Q and A session, he turned more and more dovish, really. And I think that surprised a lot of people on the positive side. And that's why we had this little pump to, like, 94. Especially when he said that the, you know, the labor data is actually overstated right now. You know, there might be, like, a, you know, difference of, like, 60,000 jobs, really. So the market actually looked at as, you know, the Fed has to. Has to cut. But I think then people realized, well, you know, the statement itself was actually quite hawkish because they only expect one more cut next year and then another cut in the following year. So it's almost like they have always been almost done, really, with the cutting cycle here. And I think when you look back, what happened actually last year in December, I think we had a very similar environment right now.
- [04:46]
A
Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, it seems like this is the first time, because Trump has obviously put me around in there, and there's some other confusion. There actually is dissent and not so much consensus at the Fed. I would argue that's probably a good thing in general. Right. You don't want the whole panel to just blindly agree with the chairman, which is something that sort of I think started happening under Volcker. It's not a thing in most other countries you get divided central banks all the time on what they should do with policy and it's a little less predictable. So I mean maybe checks and balances obviously is a good thing, but to your point, I think it just leaves a lot of confusion. I mean you even look at the articles, you have that one I just had up here, which is divided Fed approves third rate cut this year Sees slower pace ahead Then you jump ahead and you have bitcoin jumps to 94,000 but hawkish fed cut threatens crypto rally and as you said, a lot of the opinion was that he had turned sort of dovish throughout the conversation. Right. So I don't even think people watch the speech and had the same take necessarily. And here, you know, he's basically admitting 20,000 jobs a month have been lost from April to September. So it's just very mixed data and I think still a lot of confusion.
- [05:54]
B
Yeah, but when you look, you know what happened actually in 2019 and in 2024. Right. So just, you know, I mean it's probably easier to remember what happened last year in December. We also had like this 50 basis point cut in September. We had this massive rally when Elon Musk started to support Trump in October and then of course Trump was elected in November but then sort of like the party was over middle of December and that's exactly when the Fed meeting was because Powell started to talk hawkish because in anticipation of the Trump tariffs. And I think then of course the Fed stayed on pause basically up until September this year. So we had almost like a nine months quiet pause which a lot of stuff did happen. That's why I think bitcoin was more or less in the range and we sold off, we rallied, we were sort of like nowhere really and I think we are very similar scenario where the Fed has cut now three times and yes the committee is divided, it's good to have a discussion. But at the same time I think there is actually some heavy pushback and, and I think that's when Powell and I think he has been flip flopping a lot. And I think that has been really difficult I think for macro investors, for crypto traders because there is not a long trend, you know, as macro traders used to be kind of like a 12 to 18 months trend at least versus now it seems like every two months, every three months, things reverse. And I think it's really because of this. You know, Powell again, he started in a, you know, with a balanced view. He started the press conference saying that actually, where rates are right now, they're really in a good spot. We are close to neutral. And that's actually a sign that actually the Fed doesn't need to cut. And that's exactly what actually the statement was saying where all the Fed members basically agreed upon. But of course, the longer the discussion went on in the Q and A, he became more and more dovish. And I think that's confused people initially. But then the realization is actually Powell has only like one vote, and it's going to take until the next June meeting, until the new Fed chair is in. But then again, the new Fed chair also needs to build consensus and need to get the votes from everyone else. And, you know, unless really inflation falls off here, which doesn't seem to be the case, even Powell suddenly, like, was assuming it would. You know, it's really like a, kind of like a matter of labor. The labor data weakens. And I think that's actually sort of like a void for risk assets.
- [08:11]
A
Yeah. Let's see what he actually had to say about future cuts, because it was pretty, pretty ambiguous.
- [08:19]
That's not the clip I was looking for. One second, I keep botching it. When I share the thing, I end up sharing my screen.
- [08:26]
A rate hike is anybody's base, as the next thing is anybody's base case at this point, and I'm not hearing that. What you see is some people feel we should stop here and that we're at the right place and just wait. Some people feel like we should cut once or more this year and next year. But when people are writing down their estimates of policy of where it should go, it is either holding here or cutting a little or cutting more than a little. So I don't see that as. I don't see the base case as involving that. Of course, you know, a Data set of 2, now 3, is not a big data set. But you are right about. I mean, I guess the good news is they're not saying there's any chance they'll hike. But when you hear the Fed chairman say, some people think we should stay here, some people think we should cut more, some people think we should cut a lot more. We're not sure how much we should cut, and we're thinking about when maybe we should should cut. I can see why there'd be some confusion.
- [09:21]
B
Well, you know, as a leader you need to put a, you know, a strong word forward, right? I mean, you cannot just like, you know, fumble, you know, every time in every meeting. And I think that's what really what the market is looking for. I mean, you know, take a stand here. But I think you didn't want to really commit to, you know, to January. But again, I think it's quite unlikely that the committee will cut in January because again they are so divided. I think they pushed this hike. This is cut through because, you know, the odds were just high right when we went to like 90% probability. So everybody was expecting, expecting this cut and then everybody was expecting actually that it would be like sort of like a hawkish cut with a pause. And I think we have now around 80% probability that the Fed will stay on pause on, you know, in January. And I think the derivatives market came in actually quite, quite short. So they had people had to cover. I think that's why we had this rally. But of course we faded out quickly because there's not a lot of money coming into the market. And I think that's really the main concern because even if the Fed would cut, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's really benefiting crypto. I mean in the past it did because there was a lot of retail investors, but this time there is not a lot of retail investors around. And I think it's institutions who are just trading a lot more carefully here, especially as we get closer to the Christmas holidays.
- [10:39]
A
Okay, so you sent me a bunch of charts so I think we should go through them because I think right now probably zooming out and looking at the market is the most interesting conversation. We have these endless debates about the four year cycle or where we stand about liquidity, all these things. You have a pretty strong set of charts here that I think give you. And obviously as a researcher they give you a pretty strong premise. So just let me know when you want me to move through them. But we start here with Bitcoin's brokenness 2023 bull market channel.
- [11:03]
B
Yeah, so that's really, really the bull market we have been looking, looking at really the last, you know, well, couple of years really now, right? We came from like 20,000 rallied, but now we're really in this bull channel and we broke the bull channel. We are now at the lower end and we're trying to break back in but we are failing. And I think that's kind of like, you know, the key risk here. And I think that's why the market has lost momentum. But when you look at the next chart, excuse me.
- [11:29]
You know, the Bitcoin ETFs actually have rolled in a lot less money than, than a year ago. So last year we raised almost like $34 billion, but this year it's only like 22 billion. And I think that's quite interesting. How, how actually there's not a lot of money coming in. And you know, when you look carefully, we actually, we started to peak out a lot earlier in the year. And it's precisely because of the October FOMC meeting where Powell indicated that the next meeting might actually not be a cut. Of course, we have gotten now the cut, but, but it was really when sort of like the big institutional Wall street investors dialed back their buying of Bitcoin ETFs despite all this approval from Vanguards and so on, the Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management and I think bank of America.
- [12:16]
Suggesting investors should have 4% of their assets in digital assets, really. But I think the interesting aspect is really that we started the year relatively slow because of the Trump tariff hiccup. And then, you know, we didn't really push through. And I think that's kind of like an indication. But then you look at the next chart, which I think where we look at more, at least I find the.
- [12:38]
A
ETF inflow interesting because you can kind of see that 2025 was actually leading. You know, it really had a nice move up until, as you said, kind of in September and October. Then predictably, I guess, you know, when we drew down from 125 to 80, we saw the inflows echo that. But you know, last, when you look at last fall, it was pretty parabolic there.
- [12:59]
B
Yeah. And when we look at, when we look at the actual on chain data, you can see how much money actually has come into Bitcoin. So obviously we need more and more money to push prices higher, especially as the market cap increases. But so far in December, we are actually losing very small. But I think it's the first time since August 2023 that we actually seeing for the first time net outflows. There's net selling, and of course that explains why we're down here. But you can see even a year ago in December and in November, we had like these 80 $79 billion of inflows. And that was really what pushed Bitcoin to 100,000. And then even this summer with the genius act, we had another 63 billion. But now last month was only 11 billion. And the slower the inflows are the less upside pressure there is. And I think unless we really get more inflows, the market is not going to turn around. So even if the Fed cuts the actual inflows, that's really what counts. It's not really macro liquidity, it's not money supply is the actual data we can see on chain and that's not really accelerating right now.
- [14:11]
A
Okay.
- [14:11]
B
And when we look at, you know.
- [14:12]
A
Inflows here have considerably slowed down. I actually find a bit of this data like surprising. I guess anecdotally it just didn't feel like it, but it's pretty clear when you look at it.
- [14:22]
B
Yeah, it's really unfortunate. I mean we just have to, of course we all want the market to go up. We all encrypted, we all of course enthusiastic about it. But when you just look at the same data, they're really on a 30 day rolling basis, you can really see the big pumps and when the pumps stopped and then the music unfortunately stopped. And I think we can actually make an argument that actually in July, sort of like the market peaked because that's when the inflows peaked and now the inflows. I just like.
- [14:47]
A
Can you clarify what this chart is showing? Inflows into Bitcoin? Because this isn't ETF products which we just looked at before. Is this really just Bitcoin buying?
- [14:55]
B
Yeah, this is, this is on chain, right? This is like this is on chain data that we can look at the realized cap and it really aggregates the data and it shows it quite clearly that right now not a lot of money is coming in.
- [15:08]
Excuse me.
- [15:13]
So really unless this data picks up, you know, we are in the consolidation mode and that's exactly I think where we're struggling with this bull channel and in the first chart. So unless you really break back into the bull channel.
- [15:26]
I would stay on the sidelines, I would stay conservative. We have been recommending a lot of option selling just to harvest some yield to make some returns. And I think especially into year end, not a lot of stuff is happening and implied volume was relatively high. So money is to be made, but it's just tactical trading right now and not just long term holding right now.
- [15:47]
A
So I want to present somebody who maybe is taking the opposite side. I have a video here from Tom Lee, who we know is the mega bull. I don't think he could be deterred if anything in the world with any evidence, but this is what he had to say. And this actually aligns very well with what Raul Paul has been saying for Kind of years about the business cycles and such. But let's just see what Tom Lee said. I would Love your opinion.
- [16:11]
C
26 is a year like there's a new Fed. Right. And, but a dovish tilt and at a time when the ISM has been below 50 for a record more than three years. So that's really good for small caps and as Barry says, if they deregulate banking and we were talking about this offline, that's really good for small caps, but that's also really good for the business cycle. And we're, we've talked about this in some of our past research. Crypto prices are really sensitive to the ISM. So the ISM moving back above 50 has historically been associated with actually super cycle moves in Bitcoin and ethereum ISM.
- [16:50]
A
Going into expansion territory is positive for bitcoin and correct interest.
- [16:54]
C
Yeah. And so if you look at ISM and bitcoin and you detrend bitcoin essentially look at its distance from the 200, it's almost perfectly correlated to the ISM.
- [17:05]
A
Surprising.
- [17:05]
C
And the same thing with copper to gold prices. So copper is an industrial metal versus gold is.
- [17:11]
A
Right. But all of that tells you that it's basically just risk on that they're all behaving like an economy. And is that, am I over care?
- [17:17]
C
I think that's, I think that's right. I think bitcoin's a bit of a chameleon because there, there will probably be a time when it acts like gold but right now it acts a lot more like it's sensitive to monetary policy and the business cycle and both are about to turn up. So that would mean anybody who thinks the bitcoin for your cycle means crypto prices are down next year, we're betting against that, thinking that new highs come.
- [17:42]
A
I mean there it is really at the end. Right. But okay, so long story short, ISM is manufacturing. Right. You wouldn't necessarily think that that's correlated, but I think it gives you signals maybe of where liquidity is. And what they're saying here is that a hell of a lot of liquidity is going to come in. They think next year for your cycle is dead and that can continue to push the price of these assets.
- [18:05]
B
Well, as you said, some market commentators have said for a couple of years now that the ISM should rebound. It's usually very cyclical, has been on the floor here for the last two to three years. Is it really going to pick up? Because there has been some rate cuts, some expectations. I think it's difficult to see because the economy seems to be just driven by a couple of companies that are not really part of the manufacturing base per se. Right. It's all more like services driven, it's all tech driven. So. And I think, you know, you can make an, you know, different argument really why the four year cycle is actually, you know, alive and you know, and so I wouldn't really, you know, believe it that bitcoin is like so correlated to the ism. We actually looked at it more really on a rate of change basis of the ism. So how did the ISM not at the absolute level that a lot of people look at, but how did the ISM actually improve from a year ago? And that has actually tracked quite well, the bitcoin cycles. But of course suddenly the data point doesn't really work over the last two, three years because we are so at the low here. And I think it's probably also indicated that the economy is no longer really like capital, you know, fixed capital, you know, spending really driven rather more tech. Right. I mean you don't need, you know, you don't need to borrow a lot of money to build a factory and nobody really builds a factory except data centers really. But I think the economy has changed and you know, manufacturing only, I think it's like 10, 15% of the US economy versus the rest is really all services. So I think it's the wrong metric. I really look at more that the four year cycle is actually alive from. The simple fact is that it's not about the halving, it's more about the midterm elections. And that's usually when stock market tends to struggle and consolidate. And that's kind of our big thesis. And I think when you look at that, Bitcoin broke the 12 months moving average for the first time really since this bull market started. We are actually right on time of this metric to, you know, to be valid really. And I think it's not so easy. Of course some people always, you know, find something, you know, positive to say. Right. Even if there's a nuclear winter, the world would blow up. I mean there's always something positive because then there's always Mars to go to and these things. So I think it's just very, very difficult and a little bit, you know, I think, you know, misconception and just that everything is bullish all the time. Right?
- [20:36]
A
Yeah, there's some strange kind of a lot of nuance there to how you unpack that. Right. So first there's the, is the four Year cycle intact. But I guess more importantly the conversation of what is the four year cycle at this point, as you just said. Right, because it was always the halving cycle for the first few. But we all know that the halving is a rounding era and if anything a self fulfilling prophecy at this point. I mean, Michael Saylor buys more bitcoin in a week than the having probably affects in a year. Right. So was the four year cycle always about elections? Because you know, you usually get the halving in the spring and then the presidential election in the fall. Right. And you've seen those cycles long before bitcoin existed or is it actually this business and liquidity cycle? And so if it is those things, perhaps you would think that we could get a ramp up in 2026. But that is assuming that you get a ramp up as you said, in ISM or in liquidity. So like what if ISM just stays flat for another year? I guess they're just defaulting to it's got to go up because it's been low. But we all know that any indicator in markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- [21:42]
B
Well, it has not gone up. And I think, you know, I personally always looked at the, you know, that is driven by the four year cycle is driven by the halving. I think it's a misconception because the halving kind of moved around in the year. It's not really clear, you know, when the market should peak or when it topped. But it's very clear when you look at, you know, when the market peaked, let's say 2013, which was in December. When you look at when the market peaked in 2017, it was in December. When you look at when the market peaked in 2021, it was in November. So now we are sort of like in October. So it's always like Q4 really versus the halving has actually becoming closer from the end of the year to the early of the year. Of course it depends on the block rewards and everything. But it's not really like a constant versus the previous peaks. They have always been in the constant in the Q4 with a tendency to in the December area. And that really I think aligns quite well with when we come then into the new year. And the new year is really where historically the S and P has literally gone sideways from January until October because there is this uncertainty that the sitting President's party is going to lose a lot of seats. And I think that's also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would Lose a lot of seats in the house and therefore maybe he's not going to push a lot of his, his agenda through anymore. And I think that's where kind of like we, you know, peek out here right now because we sort of like dropped below the 12 months moving average. And that's sort of like the sign that has always actually happened into all these bear market. So of course you need to correct but I think that's really, you know, I think it just aligns almost like perfectly. I'm not saying we go down 80% but I do think we're going to consolidate for a bit longer than people are expecting.
- [23:38]
A
Yeah, I don't buy the 80% drawdown. I mean we didn't get that kind of upside. I don't see why we'd get that kind of downside just rationally. Right. I mean if the argument is that volatility has dampened, even your bear market should be 30 to 50% instead of 75 to 80. We didn't even get a 2x from the previous all time high to the upside if we believe that the top is in.
- [24:01]
B
Yeah, I mean we have already gone down you know, 30% and of course around like you know, 70K. There is a lot of support. So you know, we were already at 80. So it's not actually too much downside but it's unfortunately a little bit where we, we need to look at the real money that's really coming into the market. Right. And we can of course look at market structure, we can look at volumes is retail involved or who is buying. But we all know that if Wall street, these institutions are the main driver of these ETFs for example, they're going to wind down a little bit the business going into the holidays. I mean nobody's going to YOLO in a billion dollars now just before Christmas and then go two weeks on a ski holiday to Aspen or Whistler or something. So they'd rather wait for next year. And I think that's where we are coming to the period where volatility is going to get crushed. I think we're seeing this already now after the FOMC meeting. So selling sort of like the ranges, selling you know, the 100k or sort of like the, you know, the 80k put that's sort of like, I think the strategy that we were pursuing here because we expect actually that bitcoin is going to stay in the range and you know, and not much is going to happen until year end with this catalyst now out of the way.
- [25:09]
A
In an effort to be less depressing, let's talk about potential catalysts that could change your thesis or move things around. Right. Because I mean, we all obviously can be forward looking, we can use the data that we have, but in this market we've seen things rapidly change. For example, the approval of the ETF obviously sent Bitcoin to an all time high much earlier than anyone would have expected in a cycle, if you believe in it. We have, I would say potentially the Clarity act coming. Although odds of that happening, I would say diminish by the day as we come into midterm season. I think it's still a priority and should happen. I mean, this one was put on my radar. US Lawmakers sent a formal letter to the SEC urging them to implement President Trump's new executive order. The one that opens up the 12.5 trillion for 1K retirement market to crypto and alternative assets. I mean, do you think that that could be a potential catalyst? Any of these unlocks and flows? Right. PNC bank now partnering with Coinbase to offer crypto services to their clients. Like, you know, Vanguard coming online and allowing ETFs after saying they never would do any of these. Like, could any of these be the thing that sparks it?
- [26:16]
B
Yeah, as you said, the market can actually change, you know, quite quickly. And I think that's how the market has changed compared to previous years. I think you really need to focus on the marketing, to follow it every day because you don't want to miss it.
- [26:28]
A
Right.
- [26:28]
B
And I think we have seen this, you know, in this cycle, you know, if you would have been out of the market or have not caught some of these quick rallies, these quick pumps, you know, I think then you missed a lot of the, the returns. And I think that's kind of like how you need to look at it. You know, we have the market structure bill, you know, still coming. You know, people want to invest, but maybe not before Christmas, maybe they're waiting for the new year. And then I think the. So that the game starts again. Right. I think we're going to get a lot of data really on the labor market. So what's also interesting is, you know, the U.S. labor unemployment rate is sort of like above the 12 months moving average for now, you know, almost like two years now. And historically we always have seen a ramp up and that has always been followed by a recession. Of course a recession would not be great and then that's not really the base case scenario. But of course then we're going to get a lot More stimulus, a lot more liquidity. We're doing some sort of like soft QE as some people are talking it now, the 40 billion of bill spying that the Fed is going to do. Of course Bill spying is not QE. It's really more in the longer end, the 10 year, the 30 year. But it's this, it's a, it's a toe in the water here, right? And historically, you know, the tga, the treasury general account usually takes around like two months before bitcoin has really reacted. I think that's what we saw when it started to release liquidity in February this year. But then bitcoin only bottomed in April. So maybe if they're going to start now releasing it, we're going to see.
- [27:58]
Some trigger there. We also of course have in January potentially another government shutdown. And I think the interesting aspect that nobody really talks about is that in July this year we got the big beautiful bill, the 5 trillion debt ceiling increase, but we have already depleted 42% of that amount of money. So a lot of money has already been spent and at one point the market will wake up and say like, hey, I rather want an alternative asset. And I think that's when bitcoin can shine. But of course it's anybody guess when, when this is going to happen.
- [28:31]
A
That all makes sense. Is there anything else on your radar that I might have missed here? We cooked through your charts, obviously. This actually is what I want to ask you. So what does it all mean for altcoins? Obviously if you have a bearish tilt, you can't be particularly bullish on altcoins. I think we know that because even when people have been bullish on bitcoin, it's been hard to be bullish on altcoins. But is there any catalyst you see? I mean, clarity, I think could be a catalyst if we get that specific clarity on a lot of these altcoins. I mean, you have Paul Atkins, the chair of the sec, literally saying he doesn't think these things are securities unless they're tokenized versions of securities. We're seeing some chatter, but what that means for token 73 on coin market cap, I have no idea.
- [29:11]
B
Well, we have around US$59 billion of unlocks per year in the altcoin space. I think a lot of VC investors from the last cycle before, you know, their LPs, you know, they want to redeem some money. So I think that's why we have always some, some headwinds there. And of course we know that retail is not really the driving forces cycle. It's more Wall street and Wall street is really buying Bitcoin and as you know we, we know now buying Ethereum since the summer, just you know, to some vehicles I'm you know, more bullish on, on bnb, you know, simply because I think it's a, it's a great play for the ecosystem. I think Binance is probably, I would actually favor BNB over Ethereum because I think it actually has a better ecosystem. I think it's going to spin out more companies. I think you get actually around 10% yield if you participate some of the launchpad tokens which you can do as a BNB holder. So if I were to hold one Altcoin, it's probably BNB because it's one of the large cap ones and I think it has a lot more potential also from a yield generating perspective. So it's not that the space is dead. I think a lot of stuff can be done, you know, volatility can be sold especially again if it's a smart way. And I think we have seen a lot of activity and action actually in the crypto stock. So I think a lot of IPOs are coming and I think that's not going to go away. And I think we have seen how, you know, how Circle attracted so much money. I wish there would be some, some other IPOs really, you know, being out late right now.
- [30:44]
A
So Kraken's coming. I think Gemini is likely. I mean, yeah, so I mean I think there's going to be quite a few with time. I think that you kind of had this early wave and they were so good etoro out of nowhere, bullish like companies that maybe people wouldn't even expect it to do so particularly well after. And then with Circle, I actually made the joke repeatedly on my show that that was alt season was like IPOs and public markets or anything. Crypto adjacent in public markets was like the alt seasons of the past because the money PO is different. It's tradfi money that's moving Bitcoin. That money doesn't trickle down to your random altcoin. Right. But it can trickle down to some other riskier crypto adjacent asset in public markets. And so I think that we saw that, right, Miners would be kind of was one huge like, you know, move. I won't call it a bubble because they've performed well, but all the IPOs and the exchange stocks and everything. So I just think that that's where the money is playing right now.
- [31:43]
B
Yeah, I think that's actually an excellent point because we can actually look at the US Equity buying from Korean investors. So we have seen that Koreans, I think they bought like $1.5 billion of bit mine. So of course it helps that there is some link with Tom Lee into Korea to attract really some of the capital. But they have also, they have bought Iron Energy. They have bought, you know, Circle. You know, they have, they have been a big investor before in microstrategy. So we're seeing these flows from Korean investors. And yes, as you said, traditionally they used to be very big in altcoins, but I think the market has moved a little bit more to the stock market. So the stock arena just needs to have more crypto companies and we can trade those as well. I think there's a lot of stories, a lot of trades can be done, and the market is, you know, liquid. I mean, even Robinhood falls into this category. And all these companies are expanding and attracting a lot of capital. I mean, remember like Robinhood used to be, like at $10, you know, three years ago.
- [32:42]
A
It's crazy. The move on Robinhood is crazy, but I think justified, right? Because if you view them as Charles Schwab of the future for this next generation, then it makes a lot of sense that they were wildly underpriced, especially because their, you know, revenue generally supports it. I love the point about South Korea. I was unaware of it, but I don't think people realize how much of crypto speculative volume comes from Asia in general. But South Korea specifically, like the disproportionate amount of volume and trading that is pushed from that country, is absolutely insane. I didn't realize that they had access to the public markets in that way and that you were tracking it. But that really, really supports my theory and gives me a lot more faith that I'm correct there.
- [33:23]
B
Next time I'll bring you some, some charts. But I give you just one data point. So the Korean stock market, all Korean stocks, you know, Samsung Electronics, the largest one, they trade $15 billion a day. US$15 billion a day. But last year at one point, the crypto markets in Korea, so up it, for example, and all these other crypto exchanges traded 25 billion at one point. So crypto market traded 50% more than all the stocks that was at one point last year. So that's how crazy it is.
- [33:53]
A
Doesn't surprise me. And they're on heavy leverage, too. I wonder how much like the events of October 10th and such affect volumes like that. When you see 19 billion in liquidations in a single day. 19.2, whatever the number was, and apparently 1.1 million individual accounts liquidated. You've got to imagine that that puts a dent in that risk appetite or at least who has the capital to do it.
- [34:17]
Really crazy. Really crazy. Anything else, Marcus, before I let you go?
- [34:22]
B
You know, that's it. I think we started to look a little bit more at Poly Market, at these betting markets because they have raised $3 billion, you know, among them and culture over the last couple of weeks, I think they're listing more crypto products. So maybe that's like a niche. You know, we come out with some ideas there. So I think there's always something to do, right? I mean, the whole thing is that crypto is never boring. I think there's always something, you know, cooking in the background. We just have to find these gems.
- [34:49]
A
Yeah, totally agree. Thanks for your perspective. I love. It's very balanced, very data based as usual. I guess, you know, as a researcher that makes a lot of sense. And I love when people have strong opinions, but they're loosely held. They're willing obviously to pivot and make a change. So, yeah, that's it. Thank you, guys. You can give Marcus a follow. His. His Twitter is right down in the description and obviously check out 10x research. Otherwise I will be back tomorrow for the Friday 5 with NLW and of course hosting Crypto Town hall on x spaces at 10:15. Marcus, thank you very much. Deeply appreciate you being here. Hopefully we'll do this again soon. Everybody else, we will see you tomorrow.
- [35:33]
B
Let's do.