The Wolf Of All Streets

Episode Summary: "Bitcoin DUMPS Below $67K As CLARITY Act Gets Put On Ice!"

Date: February 11, 2026

Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Peter Cheer (macro analyst and financial markets expert)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Scott Melker and macro analyst Peter Cheer dig into Bitcoin’s sudden price dip below $67,000 amid confusing macroeconomic signals—specifically, a surprisingly positive jobs report and the political wrangling around the stalled CLARITY Act for crypto regulation. The discussion weaves through unreliable government data, evolving market narratives, and Bitcoin’s shifting investor base, while also touching on broader regulatory and geopolitical themes impacting the industry.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The (Suspect) Macro Backdrop: Jobs Report & Government Data

• Confusion Over Jobs Data: The latest U.S. jobs report was much stronger than anticipated, reporting 130,000 new jobs (much higher than forecasts of major downward revisions).

• Peter's Take: Peter praises aspects of the report (high private sector job growth, increased labor participation), but criticizes deep flaws in data collection and seasonal adjustments:

  • "We lost 2.65 million jobs in January [...] but the seasonal adjustments take them five years to fix!" (Peter, 02:00)
  • The birth/death model overstates job creation due to gig economy distortions (EIN for Uber/Lyft, Airbnbs, etc.).
  • Real-time, reliable job data remains mysteriously elusive despite technological advances.

• Cynicism About Data Quality: Both express doubts about how government collects, adjusts, and revises employment statistics, with Melker quipping:

  • “Maybe none of this works particularly well with the United States government.” (Scott, 07:39)
  • Peter jokes about law school applications as a recession indicator: “Law school applications are off the charts; that’s an indication people can’t find jobs.” (Peter, 05:35)

2. Bitcoin’s Choppy Price Action & Market Psychology

• Price Volatility: Bitcoin briefly rebounds on positive macro news but generally underwhelms, failing to sustain momentum.

  • Scott: “Are we really at the point where, in your view, bitcoin’s price is so reactive to everything that's happening with the macro?” (09:17)
  • Peter: “It’s been incredibly choppy [...] I can’t figure out why we’re not at $100K, to be honest.” (10:00)

• Speculation vs. Fundamentals: The transition from a speculative, high-volatility market to one driven by fundamentals is underway—according to Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz (referenced by Scott):

  • “Crypto’s age of speculation may be over [...] There will eventually be a shift to when it starts to trade on fundamentals, but that’s going to be real-world assets with much lower returns.” (Scott quoting Novogratz, 14:06)

• New Investors Are Less Passionate:

  • Scott references a friend’s skepticism: “He said this thing trades like shit. [...] I just don’t even know how to look at it.” (12:29)
  • Peter: “I think there’ll be a time and place again, but I’m kind of cautious right now because I don’t see the new adapter money coming in.” (13:08)

• Narrative Fatigue: No compelling bullish or bearish narrative is captivating the market at present.

  • “My still biggest concern right now is there hasn’t really been a bad narrative for bitcoin... Nothing really. Yes, the bill’s taking time to get passed, etc. But I still haven’t seen like this negative narrative. And yet here we are.” (Peter, 16:56)

3. Regulation & The CLARITY Act Stalemate

• Goldman Sachs Joins the Party—Sort Of:

  • Goldman Sachs now holds $1.1B in Bitcoin, $1B in ETH, and significant XRP and Solana positions, but this is “literally a drop in the bucket” for them (Scott, 18:22).
  • Peter emphasizes the significance of Goldman being willing to cannibalize legacy business to pursue crypto (18:46).

• Regulatory Gridlock: The CLARITY Act (a key piece of crypto legislation) remains stalled after White House meetings.

  • Various complaints and finger-pointing—from both the bank and crypto sides—and a strange White House accusation that Coinbase is blocking the bill. Peter is unpersuaded:
    • “Maybe they’re just an easy finger to point at right now… It does seem a bit shameful that we can’t get something passed.” (21:17)
  • Scott believes all positive regulatory expectations have been priced in: “Maybe those were all sadly priced in... All of that was presented as inevitable before the election.” (21:54)

• Market Impact:

  • Peter: “I’m still not convinced, though, that getting this passed at this point… I think it’s a sell the news event, to be honest.” (21:43)
  • Scott: “I’m pretty convinced it’s a nothing happens.” (21:54)

4. Political Risk, Geopolitics & The Midterms

• “Anti-Trump Trade” in Markets: Peter notes odd sector rotations (uranium, gold, tech, Bitcoin) he believes may reflect markets betting against Republican midterm success (22:46).

• Potential Disruptors:

  • Peter predicts U.S.-Cuba rapprochement and U.S. (with Mexico’s blessing) military action against Mexican cartels before midterms, with implications for the region and markets (23:45).

• Election Mechanics: Both agree that coming midterm losses by the incumbent party are routine, not a unique indictment of current politics (24:30).

5. Looking Forward

• Rate Cuts Are Coming: Peter is adamant that three Fed rate cuts are on the way by September, regardless of the jobs data, driven by the Trump administration’s agenda:

  • “We are going to get three cuts. I don’t even care about this jobs data. We’re going to be at 2.875% on fed funds by September. That’s what the Trump administration wants.” (Peter, 26:23)

• Bitcoin’s Outlook: Both expect a period of price consolidation (chop) between $55K–$75K for the next six months; neither see explosive upside or new lows as imminent.

Memorable Quotes

• On Data Quality:
  • “The single most important data point that we have is probably the most garbage collected.” (Peter, 06:40)
• On Crypto Market Evolution:
  • “Crypto’s age of speculation may be over… we’re in that transitional period.” (Scott, 14:06, quoting Mike Novogratz)
• On Regulatory Antics:
  • “Coinbase doesn’t have a vote in the Senate… So, how can it be Coinbase’s fault that this is not getting done?” (Scott, 21:00)
• On Goldman's Influence:
  • “Probably more than any other bank, I think [Goldman] are willing to cannibalize existing business if they see an opportunity going forward.” (Peter, 18:46)
• On Passive Investors:
  • “You can’t expect the mainstream to buy it on the same narrative that somebody did in 2011. They’re buying it the same way that they’re dollar cost averaging into SPY.” (Scott, 16:24)
• On Policy Determinism:
  • “Anyone who thought we were going to go and snatch Maduro in the middle of the night and thinks we’re not going to do some form of yield curve control is insane. This isn’t a government that… they’ve told us what they want.” (Peter, 26:23)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:04 | Breakdown of jobs report and seasonal adjustment skepticism | | 04:00 | Discussion on data quality: incompetence vs. conspiracy | | 06:21 | Better models for employment & inflation; role of alternative data sources | | 09:17 | Real-time Bitcoin price reaction, macro influence | | 10:00 | Peter’s frustration: “Why aren’t we at $100K?” | | 14:06 | Speculation to fundamentals shift in crypto, referencing Novogratz | | 18:22 | Goldman Sachs' crypto holdings and implications | | 20:56 | CLARITY Act discussions, White House meetings, and narrative confusion | | 22:46 | Political risk: “Anti-Trump trade” and market sector rotations | | 23:45 | Geopolitics: Cuba, Mexican cartels, and midterm election tactics | | 26:23 | Rate cut prediction: “We are going to get three cuts...” |

TL;DR

Melker and Cheer deconstruct Bitcoin’s latest drop amid a landscape of questionable data, churning narratives, and regulatory gridlock in DC. Both view the market as directionless, pricing in all the good news, and expect sideways action until new money or a new story emerges—with the Fed, politics, and regulation as ongoing background noise.