The Wolf Of All Streets – "Bitcoin Dumps Below $90K AGAIN! Is The Cycle Top In?"

Host: Scott Melker
Guests: James, Dave, Mike
Air Date: December 15, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of The Wolf Of All Streets dives into Bitcoin's recent dip below $90,000 and debates whether the cycle top is now behind us. The panel tackles market sentiment, the contentious Fed meeting, debates over quantitative easing, macroeconomic uncertainty, and big institutional moves in crypto. Noteworthy moments include skepticism about quantum computing fears, institutional buying, and the continued tension between Bitcoin and gold amidst macro headwinds.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin’s Drop Below $90k and Four-Year Cycle Narratives

• Scott Melker opens the episode addressing Bitcoin’s recent dip below $90k, questioning if this confirms the cycle top and the validity of the four-year cycle model.
• Market Sentiment: Panel notes widespread speculation but acknowledges that not all experts agree this is the definitive cycle top.

  “Bitcoin dumped below $90,000 again leading many to use this as further evidence that the cycle top is obviously in and that the four year cycle is alive and well. I would imagine that not all of today's guests agree with that sentiment.” – Scott Melker (00:00)

2. Federal Reserve Drama & Policy Uncertainty

• Fed Meeting Recap: The group discusses the lack of consensus at the recent Fed meeting, Powell’s non-committal stance, and a divided vote on interest rates.
• Quantitative Easing (QE) Debate:
  • Ongoing confusion between "QE" vs. "not-QE" actions from the Fed, especially regarding Treasury bill purchases.
  • James is asked for his take: Are these measures money printing, or more nuanced forms of easing?

  “That's been the debate of the last five days, I think is a lot of people getting tied up, I think, on the technical definition of what quantitative easing is and conflating that with whether that's some form of money printing or... other kinds of easing.” – Scott Melker (02:45)

  • Dave: "Gotta manage the reserves by adding money. Easy." (03:56)

3. Bitcoin vs. Gold – The Ongoing Rivalry

• Performance Debate:
  • The Bitcoin-Gold Ratio has become a central narrative.
  • Dave and Mike’s past bet: which will outperform – gold or Bitcoin?
  • Gold’s recent rally is acknowledged, but uncertainty over whether this signals a macro shift persists.

4. Luke Groman’s Capitulation & Quantum Computing Fears

• The group analyzes Luke Groman’s surprising decision to lighten (or potentially exit) his Bitcoin holdings, citing worry over quantum computing risks.
  • Skepticism about motivation:

    “If you're selling your bitcoin today because of the risk of quantum computing, I have a bridge to sell for you to you on the moon.” – Scott Melker (06:14)

  • Dave: “This is what capitulation looks like.” (08:03)
  • The panel jokes about the low likelihood that quantum risk is an urgent or rational reason to exit Bitcoin, observing that even Luke admitted he didn’t fully understand quantum computing.

5. Whale Selling, Technical Levels, and the Four-Year Cycle

• Technical Analysis:
  • Weekly 50MA Breakdown: Cited as never happening in a bull market before—now targeting the 200MA around $56k.
  • Ongoing debate over whether this confirms a larger shift or is merely noise in a noisy cycle.
  • Important chart support is identified at $75k before any precipitous drop toward $50k is possible.
• Mike: Discusses mixed data and uncertainty in the market, with key jobs and inflation numbers expected soon — “We are about to get a lot more information than we've had.” (15:22)

6. Bitcoin vs. Altcoins – Causality and Correlation

• Disagreement over market dynamics:
  • James pushes back against claims that dropping altcoins pull Bitcoin down.

    “I fundamentally disagree, Mike, with a couple things that you said… Dogecoin and shiba Inu coming down do not drag the price of bitcoin down. It works the opposite way… In the new institutionalized world… altcoins have been a drag on bitcoin. I think bitcoin not having its big 20, 25 have been a drag on altcoins.” – James (13:10)

  • The consensus: Bitcoin remains the market leader; altcoin movements are more reactionary.

7. Institutional and Industry Momentum

• Tokenization & Regulatory Shifts:
  • Highlights major corporate moves: JP Morgan continues crypto advances with a tokenized money fund.
  • Five companies (Ripple, Circle, Bitgo, others) granted trust banking licenses—“absolutely huge” for the space.
  • OCC and regulatory momentum signals crypto's expanding institutional integration.
• Michael Saylor & MicroStrategy’s Aggressive Accumulation:
  • Despite skepticism, Saylor buys another billion dollars worth of Bitcoin, pushing back on the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you're selling your bitcoin today because of the risk of quantum computing, I have a bridge to sell for you to you on the moon.”
  — Scott Melker (06:14)

• “This is what capitulation looks like.”
  — Dave (08:03)

• “Dogecoin and shiba Inu coming down do not drag the price of bitcoin down. It works the opposite way… I do not think that altcoins have been a drag on bitcoin. I think bitcoin not having its big 20, 25 have been a drag on altcoins.”
  — James (13:10)

• “We are about to get a lot more information than we've had with the inclusion of Japan... we'll see by the end of the week.”
  — Mike (15:22)

Important Timestamps

• 00:00 — Opening and overview of Bitcoin’s latest drop; Fed meeting setup.
• 02:45 — QE/Not-QE debate and Fed confusion.
• 06:14 — Reactions to Luke Groman’s Bitcoin exit and quantum risk.
• 08:03 — Panel describes Groman’s move as true “capitulation.”
• 13:10 — James disputes claims about altcoins impacting Bitcoin price.
• 15:22 — Upcoming macro data releases and potential market impact.
• 17:10 — Institutional moves: JP Morgan, trust bank licenses, Ripple, Circle, Bitgo.
• 19:32 — Michael Saylor’s latest monumental Bitcoin buy, defending MicroStrategy strategy.

Tone & Takeaways

This episode features lively, informed debate mixed with sarcasm and skepticism about mainstream narratives. The panel is critical of “overblown” market fears (quantum computing, cycle tops) and emphasizes institutional shifts as real tailwinds. Technicals matter, but the macro picture is as murky as ever, with major economic data pending and both regulatory and industry forces in flux.

For those tracking the crypto market’s direction, the panel offers a macro-informed, pragmatic view that cuts through noise and rumor—with a healthy dose of humor and insight.