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Bitcoin dumped below $90,000 again leading many to use this as further evidence that the cycle top is obviously in and that the four year cycle is alive and well. I would imagine that not all of today's guests agree with that sentiment. And of course we have the Fed meeting last week, one of the most contentious Fed meetings we've seen in a long time. Absolutely no consensus on what to do. And Jerome Powell seemingly very non committal about what is happening moving forward. Also we have a hell of a lot of news about tokenization. We are ready to go here for another macro Monday with James, Dave and Mike. Let's go. Good morning everybody and welcome to yet another macro Monday, which everybody who's anybody knows is the greatest hour of the week on planet Earth of all time ever. Going to bring on Dave, Mike and James right now. Good morning, gentlemen. Mike, here we are coming into the end of the year. I've got to imagine that you've had some excitement in the morning meetings because there's no consensus on anything anywhere, seemingly. I do want to talk about that in a minute because that was part of Luke Grohman's point that I know that everybody wanted to discuss. But Mike, you did, I think, tee up James there for a conversation that's worth having really quickly before we dive into bitcoin. Obviously we had the Fed meeting. Fed starts stealth easing, Powell rules out hike and markets rally. We had. If you really dig into the voting, it was completely mixed. If the individual bankheads had had their votes, it would have been even more mixed. You know, we had miran basically saying 50 bips, but a lot of people saying we shouldn't have cut at all and some saying we shouldn't cut at all for quite a long time. So I think that's worth discussing. But James, more specifically qe, not qe. Right. Because that's been the debate of the last five days, I think is a lot of people getting tied up, I think, on the technical definition of what quantitative easing is and conflating that with whether that's some form of money printing or there are other kinds of easing. But maybe you can give us your take on whether the Fed buying Treasury bills is QE or not. I agree. And Dave, on the FOMC side, I mean, you can obviously comment on what they're saying, but I do want to talk. Yeah, reserve man. Gotta manage the reserves by adding money. Easy. Yeah, go ahead, Dave. Two cabins. Right. That bitcoin gold ratio has become a major narrative. Obviously we had the endless debate about it. Here, Dave and Mike, you guys made a bet about which. Which would outperform over a year. Gold has obviously been absolutely flying. I want to go back because we've mentioned him a few times. Luke here. Yeah, it can't exist. At rate. It's. It. Yeah. I think that not only is it over, we had that narrative a year ago that it unwound. So nobody's jumped back into that. But I want to talk about Luke Roman here. Mike, I think he's been listening. No, because they're fully in meta planet and far coin. No. But yeah, No, it's fine. So going to what Luke Groman said because I think it's been a good catalyst for a lot of conversation. Obviously Luke is a massive bitcoiner and anytime a massive bitcoiner I guess we can call it capitulates. It raises the spidey senses all over crypto Twitter. But this is why he said he basically lightened. Seemingly he said reduced. But when you hear him talk it sounds like he kind of just exited. But because of risk of quantum computing. I mean if you're selling your bitcoin today because of the risk of quantum computing, I have a bridge to sell for you to you on the moon. But not making new highs versus gold. That's been one of the big narratives and that was what I wanted to talk about there. Lots of selling from whales. Okay. Charts broke down six weeks ago. That part is extremely accurate. As I've pointed out many times, the weekly 50ma broke down. That has never broken down in a bull market. It has always visited the 200 which is at 56,000 right now and believes four year cycle is playing out. Mike, a lot of this echoes your points, but from a guy who's been pretty much a die hard bitcoiner. Yeah, that's what it is of. I assume when you said you were hedging for your hedge fund and hedge fund and preparing it meant you bought all of Luke Roman's bitcoin. Dave, you said he capitulated. Yeah, Dave said he capitulated. Right. This is what capitulation looks like. Dave, you put it in pretty simple terms there. Lost. Yeah, Yeah. Go to the 2 million. It's. Even said he didn't understand it. By the way. He literally. That was the one he kind of mumbled through in the interview. He's like, I don't really understand quantum. He's like, whatever. It's. There is nobody who's saying they've built a better bitcoin mic. I mean maybe, maybe the 12 people who are launched. Okay. I don't think. I don't even think they're saying they built a better bitcoin, by the way. I just think that they're saying their thing might be a better investment for various reasons than. Yeah, It. Really quick, James, there's one thing I just have to say. Really? Go ahead. Yeah, Yeah. I just want to very quickly say. Okay, finish that. Yep. Yeah, Yeah. I fundamentally disagree, Mike, with a couple things that you said and one of them, and I think it's very important to be clear on dogecoin and shiba Inu coming down. Do not drag the price of bitcoin down. It works the opposite way. If bitcoin goes down, altcoins exit. I'm just saying I do not think that there's. Especially in the new institutionalized world where bitcoin is largely available to everyone, Dogecoin goes down 50%. I do not think that in any way affects the price of bitcoin. I do not think that altcoins have been a drag on bitcoin. I think bitcoin not having its big 20, 25 have been a drag on all coins. I just think. They are absolutely both. Correlation causation, once again there for. For it. That very well may be true. I just don't think it's. If bitcoin goes down, it's going to be because altcoins went down. They've become such a. Dave, I don't think it's fair to say the next level is 50. I mean, there's some glaring levels in between 75, I think, is the most glaring level on the chart between there. This funny thing happened. The market opened, you know that that tends to see some volatility at 9:30am On. On. On any given day. Yeah, I would say that we have glaring levels, obviously, as I said, between here and 50,000. I think there's a lot of confusion because there's just mixed data and we don't know what we're going to get. I mean, we didn't really talk about it. We talked about the Fed, but we didn't talk about the fact that we're actually going to get some inflation numbers and job numbers this week that have been delayed effectively since September. Plenty of time for them to cook them. They could change them as much as they want. They've taken a few weeks to do that. But I think that that is going kind of, to Mike's point, to show us a lot about what's coming by the end of the week. I don't know if that was the reason you thought that Mike or the price action. But we are about to get a lot more information than we've had with the inclusion of Japan on. Every Monday is Black Monday according to James Wynn who whose credentials are losing a billion dollars on his first leverage trade of all time. Definitely an expert. Yeah, we definitely have to wrap. I just want to ping really quickly a couple stories that we should have talked about just to show that very clear or tailwinds the industry has whether that ends up reflecting in price. JP Morgan steps further in the crypto with tokenized money fund Ripple Circle, Bitgo et al. Five companies got basically the license to be trust banking institutions which is absolutely huge. Maybe Dave will talk about that on Crypto Town Hall. That added to the OCC news that we had last week. Of course you mentioned SpaceX. That's not related here. 1.5 trillion public listing. But for many who are being skeptical, Michael Saylor did remain in the NASDAQ 100 with strategy and went on to casually buy another billion with a B dollars in bitcoin this week. That's two weeks in a row that he's effectively put in a 10,000 bitcoin plus purchase when last I checked it was going to zero is going to be delisted and it was all over for strategy. According to the. You know what he's going to tell you? He's going to talk about digital credit. He's not going to talk about microstrategy price or Bitcoin because that's the new narrative. But that's all we got guys. We're at 10:07. Thank you gentlemen. Thank you. Mike. Yeah. We can gauge our overtime by how light it gets in James's room in Vegas. You all right? And Dave, we'll see you on Crypto Town hall in about seven minutes. All right everybody, we're out. You and me both. Crypto town hall in 12 minutes. All right, see you guys soon. Thanks.
