← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin Dumps Below $90K As Market Sell Off Continues! Where's The Bottom?
01:03:51
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- [00:01]
A
Bitcoin dropped below 90,000American dollars overnight, hitting a low right around 89,000. The bear market has commenced and we're in a phase where it seemingly is nothing but bad news for the market. People putting out analysis about price targets of 55,000. The S&P is going to apparently retrace 50% and it's all over. Some of us just automatically buy the dip using a certain tool that we often talk about on Tuesdays and are pretty excited to see this price action because we know where this asset and asset class is going long term. But we're going to discuss all of that right now with myself, Andrew Tillman and Matt. Let's go.
- [00:47]
B
Let's do.
- [01:02]
A
Good morning everybody and welcome to hell. Hades is happy to see you chilling here with, with Satan. We got Matt, Andrew and Tillman. Man, it is disgusting out there. And add into some market volatility and a dip the fact that Cloudflare is down and people can't go on Twitter ChatGPT isn't working. People can't write love letters to their wives anymore. It's pure carnage out there. I actually, when I went live, I got like 17 warnings that we were not live on X from every one of your things in front of my entire screen. It's going really great, I would say, so far. So let's start here, right? Obviously we got S&P 500 futures drop for fourth day as tech shares slump. Bitcoin breaks below 90,000. Seems we're in a bit of an everything correction right now and bitcoin's obviously been leading that to some degree. Anybody who would like to. Matt, you know, you're the, you're the fresh face. Second time here, which means on the spot. Why is bitcoin dead and where is the bottom exactly to the dollar?
- [02:10]
C
Well, I think like everything's dead right now. I mean. Oh my. Okay, okay. Yeah, everything's dead right now. That's the thing you got, you know, Meta's down, all the tech stocks down. Nvidia is down 10%. Oracle's down 21%. Gold is down 10% from earlier highs. Bitcoin just goes up the most when all these things rise too. And so it's going to have the most volatility on the way down sometimes as well. So I, you know, there's no news I'm hearing that's significant as to long term value trends. It's just everything's getting slaughtered right now. So that's how I'm looking at it right now.
- [02:52]
A
I wrote a newsletter Yesterday about all of the comparisons I'm hearing between 2022 and 2025, like people saying this is bad as it's been, all coins are dead, something's about to break. Talk about like recency bias, 2022, FTX, you know, everything else. Voyager, Celsius, Luna. I mean this is nothing like that. We literally have nothing but good news and price just happens to be down and people are acting like the world has literally ended for the industry. Andrew, I thought you're about to jump in. Tillman, hopefully you can hear. I know you can hear.
- [03:25]
B
Well, in, in 2022 we still had Gary Gensler calling crypto scams and fraudsters and, and hucksters literally on national TV once a week. The flip side now is we have, you know, the likes of BlackRock and Bitwise Infidelity to talking about bitcoin and crypto at large being a meaningful part of the overall financial markets. So a bit of a shift there in terms of the current, you know, price action across, you know, equities and crypto. Just a reminder that in April we were down at like 4500 for the S and P. So a bit of a, you know, a move down, you know, a small correction. I don't know, it's probably reasonably expected from time to time. We also are in right about that, that starting point where people are looking at, you know, how am I going to handle my gains slash taxes here at the end of the year? How should I handle some of that? So that's another little wrinkle associated with, with, with selling right at this point. I always go to, you know, ETF action whenever we're seeing a, a move to the downside. What is staying afloat? Is there a, you know, a, a sort of in kind move to the downside in terms of, you know, people selling certain ETFs versus the overall market because that's where the lion's share of all asset flows really are, are ETFs. And you're just, again, you're just not seeing meaningful moves out of certain asset classes. Sure you're seeing some moves in the crypto space. The Bitcoin ETFs you know, have seen some outflows while at the same time you've got the new Solana ETFs have seen huge inflows, the new XRP ETF huge inflows. So it's, you know, a little bit of movie running around, moving around and it's just par for the course whenever you go straight up for let's call it seven months.
- [05:41]
D
Yeah, I, I think if you, if you look at blow off tops, this is not a blow off top. This is a pullback on a nice bull cycle. It, you know, these, the pullbacks are pretty obvious. I mean we had two prior to this that, that were 30 plus percent. This hadn't even gotten to those levels. It's just, it seems like a lot because number one, we all thought when it broke 126 again that it was going, you know, 135, 145. Expectations are a large part of it. But also the percentage that bitcoin is going to have to, you know, move or the dollars associated with those percentages, they're always going to be climbing. I mean when bitcoin is trading at 850,000, the drops will be a hundred thousand, you know, in, in, in, in dollar amount. Why? Well, because volatility is a feature of this market that is proven, absolutely proven. And there are actually, you know, graphs that you can look at the bitcoin volatility graph and, and it, it's going down over time. It does trend downward because the market is maturing. But that's actually a good thing. It shows more money coming to the market, but it's still wildly more volatile than most other asset classes. And yet we complain when it's volatile. You know, these are the opportunities where you buy the dips and these are the reasons why you don't ever in bitcoin specifically, but you know, crypto specifically, but really any investment you never smash buy at one price level. That's, that's foolish. That's, you know, if you just talk to any mathematician who isn't even an investor and you give them this problem to solve, there's a price that fluctuates highly in this time frame. How do I solve the, how do I, you know, de risk the volatility in that time frame? And he will tell you with no trading experience, the mathematical way to do that is to separate your purchases and get price exposure as many points on that line as possible. And that's what the old fashioned dollar cost average boring kind of way is. But the, there's a lot more sophistication that you can add to dollar cost averaging. Dollar cost averages, averaging is really just saying, hey, I'm going to separate my money and buy across a cost curve instead of at a point. But then you say okay, well when do I buy across that cost curve? And I think these opportunities for people who play that game and understand those strategies are gold Mine opportunities like these dips are when my favorite asset that has not changed in character has more infrastructure being built on it, more liquidity. Rails, I mean we're dipping to 3 trillion. Like I remember when we broke a trillion, like it was the end of the world, like bitcoin had arrived. Now we're 3 trillion. And you know, the asset class is, is only getting integrated more and more each day. And what does that integration look like? Well, a lot of it looks like defi offering yield to institutions and to exchanges. Go look at Coinbase. If you haven't looked at any of the things they're offering, they're all yield based. They're lending, they're borrowing, they're getting ICO initial offerings. They're all these things that point to a very bright future. As it pertains to product development and access and ease of access I think is the next real leg forward for this industry where whereby which people are, are getting yield on deposits and they are not having to do any of the defi. It's all being done behind the curtain by registered exchanges that are managing these things for their customers. And that's, I think, you know, indicative of a massive adoption curve. I mean just a massive adoption curve. And with an adoption curve like that comes a lot of money and growth, right? So I just see nothing but opportunity. Honestly.
- [09:57]
A
These dips are, are or these are the dips. These are the dips since the FTX lows, right? So on this run up we got 22, 20, 21, 22, 21, 33, 32 and currently at 29.39. So that's my point.
- [10:16]
D
We're shallower.
- [10:17]
A
Don't even make me go back to other, don't even make me go back to other bull markets where we got, you know, we had more voltage, a 55 dip in the last bull market. 32. I mean this is pretty standard. I will tell you what's not standard for the people who care, which is that we obviously have, you know, the weekly losing the 50 ma, which has never happened in a bull market. So like there are a lot of people who view that as the kind of line. I've got this line marked right here, which is 88-804. I've been literally yelling about that, not thinking you would actually get there for being intellectually honest. But that's where my biggest bids are. So overnight I filled about 70 of the bids I had in that area outside of my arch public. These are the ones I've had there since April. Literally it broke it up in April or March. I think it broke up. Yeah, it broke up in April. And I was like, maybe that line gets retested.
- [11:09]
B
What do we, what do we think blackrock's reps are telling Harvard about the price of bitcoin? Yeah. Are they telling them the story, Are they telling them the story that oh it, there's a good chance it's going to do a 60 dip versus a 30% dip? Probably not. They probably are singing the song that price action has changed. The four year cycle is now garbage. This is an institutional asset like anything else with significantly larger upside. And that's why Harvard buys a lot more. That's the narrative that's being preached right now. So price action has materially changed in a big way over also we can go back to the fact that in 2023 and 24 Bitcoin was up, you know, 125 to 170% between those two years each. And so okay, so we're down what, 2% year to date or 3% year to date? I don't know. Kind of like that average over a three year period. It's not bad. It's pretty good stuff.
- [12:13]
C
Yeah. I mean speaking of Larry Fink, I was at a conference last week. Retirement Industry Trust Association. You know how rager, that's basically how institutional is that? And just to give you. They literally played Larry Fink's interview on 60 Minutes and they played that little clip about how he and Jamie Dimon used to be talking crap about crypto and challenged him on it. And he's, and now he's singing the tune of this should give, you know, 5% of your, you know, portfolio. And so, so you know, the last dominoes in terms of adoption is like frankly that type of industry association because everyone's, there's like we watch 60 Minutes, you know, I mean this is like the last group you need to win over. And so, so that's where I'm like with the price of, of where things are at with bitcoin in particular is you're almost trying to find like, well, what is there there? Like what's there. And I mentioned some of the tech and AI stocks that have had that, you know, that have also had great runs recently but are coming back down in value. And I think a lot of people view crypto as a future asset with a lot of room for growth, much like they do the AI and tech stocks. Those have had a similar price correction. Gold, the store of value, the from for, you know, centuries, you know, is also down from all time size. A lot of people are buying bitcoin as a store of value play. So those, those, you know, that philosophy of why do I own this asset in some ways is penetrating these other, these other assets that we know. And so I don't think it's a bitcoin thing or a crypto thing necessarily. It's just the sentiment right now in the market. And I think two of those things and that's what I'm trying to understand, like what's there. There's nothing there. That means that's a great opportunity to buy because everyone's fearful about nothing.
- [14:04]
A
What is it? If there was a regulatory, legislative.
- [14:08]
C
Yeah, we got Larry Fink in 60 Minutes now.
- [14:12]
A
Yeah, I mean, Donald Trump was on 60 Minutes two weeks ago saying that, you know, his number one priority is see crypto go up or to become the crypto capital of the world or whatever. He said something about McDonald's, I don't know. But it's the, I just don't understand the like bare market comparisons of the past. As I said at the beginning, it's just like we were dead then. The industry could have died.
- [14:34]
D
Well, I think that there's a ripe opportunity for Wall street, honestly, with this market. This is the first market bull cycle that Wall street has gotten to really participate in. And that presents itself a tremendous amount of, of liquidity grab opportunities. And you talk about how degenerate our space is and how everyone just wants to put these crazy leverage trades on 200x300x100. That's like common practice now to the point that, you know, in these shakeouts, I think the last one that we had, the, the, the, the dip essentially that started this, it was an $18 billion liquidity grab. I mean, that's a lot of money to grab. That, that's an incentive to make all the technical traders go, why is the chart lying to me? You know, the chart means nothing, right? The, the, the liquidity that flows in and out of the markets from Wall street, you know, can move this market wherever they want it to go. And so when they see on the board a ton of people betting and thinking that they know where the market's going, that's a, they know that if they drive the price below that and 100, 100,000 was that level. And I've, I even said this like months ago when we broke it, I was like, don't be surprised if this becomes the key level where they won't let us decide where this market's going and that's exactly what they're doing. And it, it creates a buying zone on leverage that accelerates their opportunity to stack sats in a very short period of time. And that's what they need because they're trying to stack a lot of sats in a very short period of time. How do you do that? Well, you, you shake the market as hard as you can shake it. You, you know, you need every orange to fall off that tree. So shake the trunk.
- [16:30]
A
Right? But Matt, literally what you do is have self directed investment accounts, right? So like in theory, yes, we can have people that can trade tax free using Arch Public and such and follow these tight moves and do all of that in there because it's a great advantage. But 90% of the people who are holding IRAs or 401ks are literally just buying stuff forever and waiting until retirement. Doesn't that align very well with buying something that's down 30%?
- [17:03]
C
Yeah, absolutely. I mean entry point and buying right is like the first thing. But for most people in their retirement account, they're thinking of, you know, this asset in 10 years, 20 years, what's that value that I'm going to have that I can live off of in retirement? You know, I can always make money trading through that time cycle too. But what's the overall curve of that or the overall like growth of that asset that I believe in? And so yeah, I mean that's what we, you know, our clients do and we have hundreds of millions of clients or hundreds of millions of dollars in crypto and clients Roth IRAs growing totally tax free. So, so like, you know, it's interesting, like the panic, you know, like our phones don't ring, nobody's like calling us or like what's going on, right. They have a long term perspective on it. And which is great because that's, that's what we do too. And even when I started doing this, you know, I bought bitcoin in my retirement account in 2017, right. And that was 2500 per BTC back then. And I just kind of did it. Frank said a lot of early clients doing it, asking me how the heck to do it and I didn't know, so I had to go figure it out and do it myself. At first I was the test case. It was like the best research project ever. And, and so but then I came back, taught our clients how to do it. But like, you know, if you think of like all the cycles since then, and I know you guys mentioned some of the news and just the different things, I mean, regulatory stuff, IRS enforcement, Gensler, the Biden administration, like, it was just like. And definitely sorting out some frauds and companies. It's interesting. One of the companies we talked to working with was FTX and Voyager. Dodge those bullets. Glad I didn't work with those companies. And so, so now we're in this environment where it's like there's legislation that comes out this last year, you've got a president all on board and wanting to make crypto capital world. And so these types of cycles are just for those of us have been around for a while, it's just like, okay, I just don't. There's nothing that worries me really. And that's why I think a lot of our clients are, if anything just buying and not really worried about the long term future because there's nothing there in the news. There's nothing discouraging from an underlying like standpoint of the asset.
- [19:24]
A
I mean, Andrew, here's your guy.
- [19:26]
B
Hey, Areas.
- [19:27]
A
Look at his hair. He is your hair antithesis.
- [19:31]
B
Yeah, he. Listen, I do want to know what goes into that because there are moments where it's even higher than it is right there.
- [19:39]
A
Do you think they go with his predictions or like his bullets?
- [19:42]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [19:44]
A
It was two weeks ago that he said Ethereum will be like 10 grand by the end of the year.
- [19:48]
B
There was some, something I saw, you know, either yesterday or the day before. And the picture of him, like he was going on some show or something. His hair was like really slicked back. I'm like, man, they did Tom Lee dirty on that. That photo right there looks good.
- [20:02]
A
But he says we're close to a bottom. And the Winklevies, you know, went on Twitter, which is dead, where I would share the tweet, but they said that this is last, last chance to buy Bitcoin under $90,000. A classic meme in the crypto Twitter community. But a lot of people with a lot of money calling bottoms here.
- [20:21]
B
Well, there, there are. I, I'm going to always be a Tom Lee sort of believer, you know, in terms of timing, you know, whether or not his predictions from a timing standpoint are the real deal, that's a different discussion. But we always get there. We literally always get there on his predictions and oh, by the way, as it relates to just markets in general, the idea of being unrepentantly sort of bullish has worked for the better part of, let's call it, I don't know, 35, 40 years. So ascribing that to crypto and crypto now being in the swim lane that is larger market structures. I just, I, I think he's on the right path with this stuff. You know, does Ethereum go to some insane number that he's talking about? Well, you know, to be fair, he's talking his book a little bit there, but at the same time that's the.
- [21:22]
D
Same thing as just saying he believes in it. I mean, if you have a book, you believe in it. So I mean, talk. Yeah, I don't, I don't. I think, I think he's notion is funny.
- [21:31]
A
It's like, should I talk somebody else's book and not. I love that like.
- [21:35]
C
Or if I told you not what to do and I was investing the other way, what does that say?
- [21:39]
D
That's exactly right. You're damned if you do, kind of damned if you don't. But Ethereum, you know, obviously has, has, I think made it through the de risking phase. I think it's one of the kind, Big three, if you will. And you know, I, I think it's got a bright futures from a tokenization of assets perspective. It's, it's just about timing, like Andrew said. It's like what, what time period do you want to bet on you being right in I term time period? I think what's going on with Larry Fink and everything that we just discussed, I think something that's monumental that I don't hear a lot of people talking about right now that I just want to echo again because I'm a huge fan. Brian Armstrong continues to wow me in terms of what he's providing from the platform perspective. And if you follow him on X, he's been putting a lot of messages out over the last week and a half since he's launched this new ico.
- [22:37]
C
Well.
- [22:39]
D
Over a year ago, I remember on a podcast with Andrew and Scott, we were talking about the potential of the new VC wave coming back into crypto and seeing the evidence of that. And then we thought, well, when those companies start going public, when crypto is represented as something that is a public security that people can access, that could be something that is tremendous for the industry, industry and really brings life back into the markets and brings liquidity and vigor and excitement and you know, the whole like Texas Exchange that's open 247 is coming, everything's gonna be doing blah, blah, blah. Well, Brian's just skipping all that and going, well, forget that, we're just going to launch ICOS again and you know, we're going to Democratize the access. His whole mantra, this whole message. I think today, I think it did go live. Yeah. And I think, and I, I hope it's successful as heck because I think that could be a really interesting path forward for us in the short term to see a lot of companies go, oh, I can, I can raise money through an ICO and it actually be legitimized by Coinbase and you know, the, the offering be recognized by the public in a, in a positive manner. Like if that switch gets flipped, that's a massive opportunity for us that we, I don't think the market has any, any way not to press into. It's just too big of an opportunity to pass up. It's, it, it proved itself back in 2017 to be an exceptionally effective way to raise capital for a part of the picture, right? Or whatever you want to call it, Share, token, coin, whatever.
- [24:27]
B
Well, it's the reason why crypto exchanges have a significant leg up in terms of the future versus, you know, regular investment banks, right? So regular investment banks, everything's pretty siloed. Whereas crypto exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken or any, any of them that you want to talk about, they have the ability to do everything all in one space, right? Market makers, exchange wealth management, they're lending money, generating yields, doing, you know, IPO type of activities. So investment banking type of activities, that's everything all under one shingle, so to speak. Whereas the traditional markets, you've got the nasdaq, you've got ICE and all the exchanges there, you've got Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, you've got BlackRock. As an asset manager, you get, it's all over the place right now. They do a good job of all working together, but everybody's trying to make their own little buck off of one, one big transaction, right? Whereas Coinbase is like, hey, just do everything here, you know.
- [25:36]
D
Well, and to note, everything that they're doing is customer centric. Like I can go on there, I can lend money for 8% interest, I can borrow money, I can get USDC, just money market yield account is 4.25. All the regular banks could do that. They just don't, right? That's the point. They just don't. And they haven't because it's all been, you know, they've all been doing the same thing. I don't, whatever you want to call that, there's words for it that I won't use. But you know, when, when everyone does the same thing in an industry and the price stays At a certain level where there's a certain amount of profit that's guaranteed to all participants. That's not a free market. Right. A free market is like, hey, if I can figure out how to deliver a better product to you at a lower cost and I can deliver you savings and pass that to you, and you're still getting a superior product, then I have the right to do that and I have the right to put you out of business. That's the American way. That's what free markets are, and that's what Coinbase is doing exceptionally aggressively. And. And it wouldn't surprise. I mean, this is such a big deal in my eyes, that this outage, I mean, it's just like, it's comical that this is the day that it's launching. But, you know, this is something that if is successful, which I think Brian Armstrong and the gang over at Coinbase, look, he's seeing. It's. This is. They don't even want me talking about it on this podcast, Right? Yeah, we've been taking off there. No, but it, you know, it's. It's one of those things that could lead to an entire revolution of how companies go public overnight, like Blockbuster to Netflix, like, oh, why would I go to the store? I can download it on my computer. That it will happen that quickly with this type of a shift. Because if I have. If I. If you do it through Coinbase on your phone and you go, oh, yeah, I want to participate in that ipo, they're offering it to people who have never been offered that type of access before. And that was Brian's message this whole last couple weeks, which was like, hey, we're tearing down the walls of access. Well, if you really. If he's really doing it for those reasons, and that's a pure motive, he will be successful. And there will be a lot of companies that want to follow in these footsteps, in my opinion.
- [28:07]
C
Yeah, well, you can just see, like, the amount of companies that are public now.
- [28:10]
A
Right.
- [28:10]
C
I mean, there was 8,000 plus publicly traded companies back in the 90s, and what do we got now? There's like, less than half of that.
- [28:18]
B
Yeah.
- [28:19]
C
Wow. Is the economy grown? 87% of companies with 100 million or more of revenue are privately held. Only 13% of companies with 100 million or More in revenue are actually publicly traded. And so they're definitely onto something because companies, like, they want to raise capital, they want to grow, but they've been going the private equity route or other routes. They don't want to go to the public markets in the old traditional way anymore. So I definitely think they're onto something. Coinbase is on sale, too, by the way.
- [28:49]
B
Well, it's. It's. It's the r. It's the Russ Hanneman clip. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. We. Revenue. Revenue. We don't want to make. We don't want to make any revenue. It's pre revenue. Pre revenue. Then you got to do more revenue, and then you got to do more. You'll never do enough. You'll never do enough. Yeah, it's. It's the. The public markets have gone through. You know, frankly, it's been a. It's been a grave graveyard for the 15 years. Something that I always found compelling, even when they did it. Now, four or five years ago, when Coinbase went public, they did direct listing.
- [29:28]
C
Yeah.
- [29:28]
B
Which a direct listing is effectively saying, hey, Goldman, J.P. morgan and. And Morgan Stanley, we don't owe anything. You didn't help us with this. We did it ourselves, so we don't owe you anything.
- [29:40]
A
New shares. Yeah. And then. Then people who don't understand are like, the insiders are dumping, and you have to tell them there's no shares to sell unless they put those up for sale. That's what a direct listing is, not an ipo. I still hear people refer to the Coinbase ipo.
- [29:58]
B
Yeah, yeah. So. So it. It's. You know, they've. They've been. You know, whatever they've got going on over there, bottom line, it works. And 125 million users, customers, clients, whatever moniker you want to use, and they're doing some extraordinary stuff, and they're doing it all under, you know, one heading. And they've been thoughtful about it all along the way. And so, you know, I know there's a. There's a. A reasonable portion of crypto, Twitter that hates Coinbase, but get over yourself. They're not going anywhere, and they're just going to get bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger.
- [30:37]
A
Should we be concerned, though, that this is what we're getting from the White House? Is this a signal? Yes. He's going to McDonald's conference or something. But, like, read the room, bro.
- [30:50]
B
Yeah, yeah, we want to. We want to lead in crypto, but we also haven't really figured out crypto memes.
- [30:57]
A
This is how we will be leading in crypto is. Yeah. Would you like fries with that? Tokenizing. Tokenizing your fries. I mean, Matt, I see you're taking notes and sitting there very calmly. What do you think in here?
- [31:09]
C
Well, I see my just like be greedy when others are fearful. I mean, to like, kind of like sum up where we're sitting right now is that's the, you know, Warren Buffett mantra. But I think especially when the fear isn't tangible to some reality of what's happening, that would, that would like fundamentally affect, affect price. So actually that's what I literally wrote down, Scott.
- [31:32]
A
Yeah, I mean, I wrote that down. That's what it is. I was like, I was like, he had an idea. I saw it in real time. I had an idea, which is to have my camera not turn off every 30 minutes. I can't.
- [31:42]
D
Yeah, we thought it was them to shutting us down because we were talking.
- [31:45]
A
About something, you know, not cloud player. It's user error and settings as we transition all of my equipment to another location.
- [31:53]
D
Well, I, I would tell. The thing that I would look at for Coinbase is that they're, they've filed. They're going to be a bank. Right? I think that's a foregone conclusion. If they are a bank, what interesting things will they do to push the boundaries of banking? And I know that they have an incentive right now for people to deposit, you know, crypto or cash and keep it there and you earn extra APY or APR if you keep there for, excuse me, two years. So they're definitely trying to be a depository more than just the transactional throughput. That's obvious to me. Based upon their offerings and their incentives. What would be really interesting to me is if they could get corporations to look at them as a bank. Once they get their banking charter and the, the corporations, what do they want? Well, they'd love to have a higher insurance rate on their, on their cash coverage.
- [32:52]
A
Right.
- [32:53]
D
The FDIC, what does it cover, like 200 grand or 250k? If you could get a corporate account at Coinbase, where your cash account is giving you a 4.25% APY, and at the same time, you're insured with, you know, in your Coinbase insurance product, xyz, self insured, essentially through a captive policy, you could, you could essentially raise those limits to a considerable amount and attract a ton of deposits. And that would be, that would put them square as the juggernaut in the banking industry straight out of the gate. So I'm just watching. I think some of these innovators, now that the, the administration is pro crypto, they're not holding back, they're just letting it rip and absolutely, you know, taking it, taking it to the streets and giving it to the people the way they want it.
- [33:45]
A
That's awesome.
- [33:45]
D
Taking it to the streets. Yeah, exactly.
- [33:50]
A
You got me with that one. That's a good one. I should never do that on this show ever again. Yeah. So the question then I think becomes for the market specifically, is there an expectation that we are really going into the Mike McGlone Great Depression here, that markets are going to turn over? I mean, there was an article, Goldman saying that Nvidia and AI are priced to perfection for three years. In any glitch, there's no, they can't go up, basically. I mean, there's a lot of general bearishness which I think is just worth quickly discussing before, you know, we let Matt go.
- [34:25]
B
Listen, doom and gloom sells. CNBC has more viewers in desperate difficult times. Nobody wants to watch when we're just going, you know, slowly higher for months and years on end. And so, you know, doom and gloom sells. Right. So the, the, the, the headlines are more fun when it's, oh no, things are crashing. Yeah, you know, depression, recession, I don't think we're anywhere near any of that stuff. I think at the, at the same time, you know, we, we're, we're just entering the whole AI new version of innovation. On the tech side, it's, it's just beginning as well. That that's got a long, long, long, really long tail on it. Doesn't mean that there's not going to be corrections 10 to 20, 30% along the way. But I've been around long enough to know that, you know, effectively every dip for the entirety of my life has been for buying. Like, think about that. I mean that, that is objectively true across the board with equity markets. And to a, a greater extent, I.
- [35:43]
A
Started dollar cost averaging into spy in like 2008 at basically the dead top because I finally had some money again. And it took me a good, what, eight or nine years for all of those buys for that entire time to be in profit. But last I checked, they're all up many X's now. That's why I think it's just hilarious when you go and people are so emotional. Why would you buy it 90 if it's going to 75? I'm like, dude, 120 is a good buy price for bitcoin.
- [36:15]
B
Yeah.
- [36:15]
A
In my humble opinion, if you aren't selling, why are people obsessing over the paper value of a portfolio of assets that they weren't going to sell ever? And they certainly didn't sell at 125. Now they're mad that it's 90, but even I, I just like the. I, I understand the mental gymnastics. I've been there. But like, you're not going to sell the top and you're not going to buy the bottom.
- [36:40]
B
Well, it, you know, when have you.
- [36:41]
A
Ever taken all of your portfolio and sold it at once? It's not a thing. So don't compare yourself to that.
- [36:49]
B
If you are at the conference that Matt was at with the retirees and aspiring alcoholics actually last week. Listen, if they're, if they're playing, you.
- [37:00]
D
Know, it was Rita, by the way.
- [37:07]
B
As well. Anyways, you know, the, the. If they're playing, you know, clips of thinking diamond talking about crypto. I mean, dude, I'm sorry. Those people have all the money and what do they do with it? They put more in every month. More in every month? More in every month. So you may have dips that approach 30%. Hey, maybe 35, 37. But that, that's where it's gonna stop, you know, I mean, that is where it's gonna stop. To the point like, you know, Larry and Jamie aren't in it to get back to 120. Okay, back to 120. They're in it at 500, 600, 700, 800. So to your point, Scott, 120 is a pretty great entry point, no matter how you slice it.
- [38:04]
A
I'll never forget the last, you know, bear market. Man, did I get dunked on. Like, you know, price went to 69 and I started sharing every buy and it was like 58, 53, 45. And people are like, you're insane. 58 is nuts. I'm like, I want to do what Sailor does. I'm not going to try to outthink him. But all the way down to 17, last I checked, 58 was a really good buy for bitcoin. Could I have theoretically done better with a crystal ball or now, in hindsight, yeah, those are really good buys. The problem is that I was transparently buying them on Voyager.
- [38:37]
B
Yeah. Oops.
- [38:38]
A
So that's gone.
- [38:44]
C
They were Canadians. Right? You shouldn't have, you know.
- [38:46]
A
No, they're not Canadians. That was an even bigger Voyager was Canadian, though, is that they're American and registered in Canada to. There you go.
- [38:55]
B
Okay.
- [38:55]
A
For the stock. Because that's even worse.
- [38:58]
D
Yeah. The price, I think, I think your, your reaction should tell you a lot, in my opinion. And so, you know, earlier Matt said, you know, be fearful when people are greedy. Be greedy when people are fearful. It's kind of the Counter intuitive. If your reaction right now to the price of bitcoin, is it going down to 90? In my opinion, not financial advice. You, in my opinion are by definition overallocated because you have gotten to a point where you don't have cash. You don't see this as a buying opportunity. You see this as your stack dropping in price. And so you know, if you are over allocated at any point in any asset in your life. My dad used to tell me this as a young man. He'd say sell until you can sleep. Which means like you shouldn't be stressed, you're overallocated. If you're stressed out about a dip in your portfolio and you should always be keeping, you know, the proverbial some powder dry for these types of moments and these opportunities. Why? Because what we just said, no one knows where the market's going. And that's the rule of investing and is really knowing that you own something that is the money that you're putting in Bitcoin. The way I think you should look at it is what other asset for this portion of my portfolio offers me better asymmetric opportunity. Right. Because that's really the question is like if you're not going to put it in bitcoin, where is it going? And so, you know, some would argue, including Larry Fink, that up to 5% of your portfolio should be into Bitcoin. Well, if 5% of your portfolio is in Bitcoin and goes down 10%, you're not worried about a 0.5% dip in your portfolio. I'm sorry, that, that's not. So your reaction should tell you if you have are extremely fearful right now, it means that you were at one point extremely greedy. You over allocated. If you are extremely greedy right now, it means you didn't over allocate. You can you have capital now to allocate at these prices. And guess what the most prudent people will tell you. Don't over allocate here. Don't try to catch the falling knife. Yeah, it'll bleed. It'll cut you every single time.
- [41:19]
C
Yeah. And I think everybody tries to like, you know, I think time the market and time when to buy and when to sell.
- [41:26]
A
Right.
- [41:27]
C
If you think of like the hour, you know, like the 12 and the six on the clock, you know, 12 being the high six being the lowest, everybody tries to buy it the six, you know, which is, which is hard to find. It's, it's hard to see that. But like, but you can see seven and eight, you know, it's a little easier to see that when it's coming back up. And, and I think that's like a lot of people said, like, a lot of people can make this kind of like, you know, advice got from a smart trader was like, you make a lot of money buying at 7 and 8 and, you know, selling at 10 and 11. You don't need to buy at 6 and sell at 12 because you don't know when the bottom is. You don't know where. And, you know, bitcoins are particularly an asset. There's a new 12 every time.
- [42:06]
B
So.
- [42:07]
C
But I think, like, that's like, timing. A lot of people who've been on the sidelines looking to buy, whether it's bitcoin or any other crypto or that have bought and have wanted to buy more but thought it was too expensive. I mean, think of where we're at in a market and the buy opportunity here and just that cycle of, of where pricing opportunity has to get in on an entry point to buy. I think we're at 7 or 8.
- [42:30]
A
Yeah, I agree. I mean, it just feels like almost everyone here believes that at some point there will be another bull market or we will trade much higher than we are now. So why aren't you buying everything all the time if you have money to do so? I'm not. Obviously, a lot of people bought the dip at 100 and you're done buying the dip, and I get that, and you'll be fine. But like, everyone who's watching this pretty sure has conviction that bitcoin's going to 250 or 500 or a million, whether that 100 years and that markets will eventually go up. So it's weird that we have to have conversations about what price to buy.
- [43:14]
B
Well, what are the levels of cope that exists, you know, in the quote unquote, everyone versus bitcoin? The cope has gotten to the point where, well, bitcoin's gone up a lot, but Nvidia's gone up more. So I, I'm cooler than you because I bought Nvidia. Really? Where did you buy Nvidia? Let me. You show me. Right? Or, you know, bitcoin's only gone up a KEGR of 37 over the last three years. So there's other things that are better than that. Like, those are the dumbest arguments I've ever heard in my life. So, you know, whether it's reply guys or it's reply guys, you know, look at the smartest folks in the markets. That, that, that, that still Roam around and have really big footprints again. The Jim Chanos is of the world. You know, after Jim Chanos executes a short master strategy, what is. What, you know, what is the position that he keeps holding on to and moves those profits into a long bitcoin. Right. I don't know. Guy's a pretty reasonable investor as far as I'm concerned. So, you know, those are the types of folks you want to keep an eye on and probably emulate as best you can. And the best way that you can do that is simply hold a position for a long period of time and allocate into that position every month or every week or every day if you can, to. To flatten out your cost curve.
- [44:46]
A
Well, in the real estate really quick, Matt, we kept you like 18 minutes over what I think was scheduled. Are you okay? Yeah, yeah, I'm.
- [44:52]
C
I'm cool. Yeah, I'm cool. But I can say audios now too.
- [44:56]
D
So you.
- [44:57]
C
I don't know when you guys actually end this thing.
- [44:59]
A
We don't either. That's the beauty. Yeah, we don't.
- [45:01]
C
I mean, I'm like on the first segment here and, you know, nobody knows.
- [45:05]
A
What it means, but it's most of.
- [45:07]
D
The people that come on need to have a hard stop at some point. So, yeah, like we have to these guys.
- [45:12]
A
I'm literally downloading Game of Thrones videos right now.
- [45:15]
D
Well, here's what I got. One point.
- [45:17]
C
I can't get on Twitter anyways, so I got nothing to do.
- [45:19]
A
They said, we have reply, guys. Someone said, look at their faces. Shame. So obviously I had to go rip this video while we were talking. You guys feel same.
- [45:31]
D
I feel like here's, here's. Can I make a point about what we just said? Because I think relative value is the missing piece of this conversation. And if you think about, you know, what is a. What do you do in the housing market when you want to establish value? You look at comps, you look at what the neighbor's value is, what the previous sales have been in the neighborhood where that stacks up. If you compare what is the closest correlated asset to bitcoin in everyone's mind, Gold. It's called Gold 2.0. Literally, people call it that. So if you just look at the market cap of gold at $28 trillion and the measly 1.8 trillion that's in Bitcoin, we have to 15x Bitcoin's price to get to the same market cap as gold. Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen. This year. But I don't think anybody in the room thinks that gold is a superior asset to a store of value as bitcoin. Just on the functionality alone. In defi that's coming down the pike. You gold just sits there like a pet rock. Bitcoin can actually do things for you like earn yield. JP Morgan Chase and a bunch of other people said that they're going to take bitcoin as collateral for loans. There isn't a bank in America that you can walk into with a gold bar and say, give me a loan on this gold bar. So there's already intrinsic value in bitcoin in the banking system that's beyond what gold is. But the market cap is at 6% of what gold's market cap is. That. That's all I need to know. You know what I mean? Like that's, that screams value to me.
- [47:12]
C
But maybe just you can, you can get a loan at the pawn shop with your gold though.
- [47:17]
D
Yeah, yeah, that's true. That's the only place you can get a loan. And it's 80 interest.
- [47:23]
A
I was gonna say you ain't getting value there.
- [47:26]
B
Yeah. And you probably should be packing while you're doing that.
- [47:31]
D
You can pawn your gun while you're there.
- [47:36]
A
That's really risky because you need it. Yeah, Matt, like I'm gonna let you go because. Yes.
- [47:44]
C
Thank you guys. Thanks for having me. Awesome. See you next time. What's that?
- [47:50]
A
This is the moment. Like if you want.
- [47:51]
C
Oh yeah. Hey, if you want to buy crypto tax free.
- [47:55]
B
Yeah, I do.
- [47:56]
C
You can use a Roth IRA with directed ira. You can link it to the arch public trader and you know, you can just have the best of both worlds. So tax free gains on crypto sounds pretty great. Trade as much as you want. You don't even need to track it. Who cares? The IRS doesn't. It's not going on your 1040. And then you get to keep all the gains in the crypto directed ira.com. you can learn more there. And our team, you can book a call, book your account fully online. You don't even talk to someone if you're not into that. But we're here for you. Thanks for having me on, guys.
- [48:26]
A
Thank you, Matt. Appreciate it. Awesome. But he talks about the portfolio chat. Whoa, that was big. He talks about portfolio tracking. I think the greatest thing I ever did in for my mental health was when FTX collapsed. I was using blockfolio and you know, like everyone else, I used to like refresh 100 times a day to see that all my coins and what was going up, I just never got another portfolio tracker. Why does it matter?
- [48:51]
B
Download.
- [48:51]
A
Like I said before, I've learned all these lessons the hard way, like it does. I'm not selling it, so what does it matter? Yeah, yeah.
- [48:58]
D
A really smart trader won't name names that I am very close with. Told me one time about a cash strategy that they had where they were selling covered calls. And it was really interesting to me the way that he saw it and the way that he saw it was he would find blue chip stocks that he wanted to own. Tesla, you know, Nvidia, the, the ones that we all are have been talking about that have had the rip and that we think are the future of, of tech. Right. Elon Musk, if he's able to transition cars from a liability to an asset that creates revenue for you as an owner of that asset, that's a monumental shift in owning automobiles. That would change the whole game, I think. And that's what I think we're all betting on when you buy a share of Tesla, right? So I think when you're talking about a strategy of like how do you not lose in the market? Well, when you're in the money on a call, you sell it for the cash yield. And if you're in the money all the time every month, you're going to make a very good coupon on that money that you have out there because you're in profit if you're not in the money. He looked at it as just his long term investment portfolio. He just shifted his mentality, said well I want to own it anyways. Put it over here. And it, it didn't give him the cash shield that he was looking for, but it absolutely gave him the entry price on a portion of his investment dollars that he wanted allocated to, to that stock in his portfolio. So he accomplished win win in his mind. And that mentality has changed the way that I think about things because it's like Bitcoin. If you bought it at 110, do you really think it that's the top that it's ever gonna go? I mean if you do, you're playing a much different game than we are. You know what I mean? And you're playing a different game than Larry's playing and everybody else that's in the game. So if that's your so don't sweat it. You're not going to be right on your entries. You, you're never going to pick the bottom. That is impossible to do. That is literally Catching the knife at the floor a millimeter before the tip hits the ground. It doesn't happen like that. Life doesn't work like that. And, and really where that tip is, Andrew has a saying that we use all the time in business. And it's like, hey listen, there's no houses built, built on the peaks of the mountains because there's no real estate up there. And it's the same thing with peaks and prices and dips and prices. They don't last very long. They're like this or this. And you don't think you're building a house up there and getting your whole stack unloaded at the top of one of those peaks. It ain't happening. You better start, you know, divesting all the way up the green side of the mountain is the point.
- [52:13]
A
I just want to show. This is, let's bring it up. This is the ETH chart from my arch public daily. But here's the log just so people can see. Yesterday bought Bitcoin twice. ETH1 Solana once the day before Ethan Solana the day before Solana the day before. Bitcoin twice the day before Solana Bitcoin Solana if bitcoin. So we've been buying a lot on these dips and there were big gaps actually where there none of them were really logging. Like here's the 7th to the 11th. It was sideways, didn't really catch anything. It was pissing me off. 7th to 11th. Is that the same one? Yeah, I mean there's a lot of gaps here. Fourth to the seventh. So when it was sideways we were catching it, but it's been catching all these big dips at this point. I just love this thing so much.
- [53:00]
D
Well, well think about it like this. Everything that you've kept in your stack that you've accumulated, you've done at the bottom of all of these dips. And all of the sell opportunities that you've cashed out on have only bought your cost basis on those entries down further.
- [53:18]
A
Right.
- [53:18]
D
So it's just the win win. It's like just, just let it roll and, and set your parameters according to your risk tolerances, what you consider to be dips on what time frames you want. So do you get the frequency and the output that you want out of it and then check in with our customer service division. I wanted to give Matt some kudos. His entire team is just 10 out of 10. If you do want to learn about, you know, a tax free crypto retirement investing, just calling those guys will give you an Incredible amount of confidence in moving forward with them because they're really hands on and they approach the crypto market in the way that we used to look at customer service. Like real talking to people. And that's what we pride ourselves in at Arch Public too is like call our guys. And if you're not happy with the frequency of the trades, it's either not trading enough or it's trading too much, or it's putting too much capital in the trades and, or too little capital in trades. All of those things are completely adjustable on every single timetable, on every symbol. So it's really easy to do once you master it and once you learn it. But it's a little bit of a learning curve. That's why we're here to help. We will guide you and handhold you and walk you through it.
- [54:38]
A
I'm running 13 of them right now.
- [54:40]
D
Yeah, yeah, Scott's running 13.
- [54:42]
A
Think about that. Somebody asked where to go. That's a modified ARB strategy. Is that what we would define this as?
- [54:49]
D
That is a very correct. It lacks a term technically, but that's a great way to describe it. It a modified ARB strategy. It's. It's an ARB strategy that allows you to, to restrict or expand how much of the, the profits you take off the table on the exits to the upside. So if there's volatility opportunities, the upside where the market, you know, is pumping over a short term period and you want to take some off the table so that you can increase your cash position in your account, thus giving you more purchasing power when the dips happen. The, the way you would do that is through this arbitrage strategy and you would set those exits at whatever percentage of the gains that you wanted to take off the table. You could do a one for one would be like literally you, you know, trade in for a bitcoin, you trade out for a bitcoin a one to two or a half. A two to one bull ratio is what we call it would be like you're buying one bitcoin and you're selling the half bitcoin at the exit. And that half bitcoin is in profit by definition because that's a setting that you get to define is like don't sell this below my cost basis and make sure it's moved above my cost basis by X when it triggers, you know it's a win. So you're excited about it and you're going in and that's contributing to again your overall cost basis as you continue to DCA or intelligently DCA across the cost curve.
- [56:17]
B
Yeah, the most powerful setups that our customers use, they're, they're using our strategies, but they're also using intelligent accumulation strategies as well. And that just means, you know, Scott said something a couple minutes ago where he said, well, not much happened the 7th through 11th, so it kind of pissed me off again. That's kind of the whole point is the emotion is removed. So instead of being pissed off and you make you do something and then there's another dip and you're like, oops, I wish I wouldn't have done that. And then instead the, the algos are making decisions for you. They're never pissed off or excited, they're just doing what they're supposed to do. Being able to use different algos that have different sort of parameters focused on making purchases and different cells at different times. That's the way to go about really, you know, sort of turbocharging what it is that you're trying to get accomplished with any of the assets that we cover, which by the way, Solana, Ethereum, xrp, Bitcoin, Doge, sui. Yeah, flare a ton of them across the board. You know, you're, you're able to execute these strategies. And again, you know, crypto is volatility land.
- [57:41]
D
Bingo. I was just going to touch on that.
- [57:43]
B
You're able to take that volatility and use it to your advantage and build the, you know, the best and biggest stack of the asset you really want the most. And again, more important than anything else, you're not involved in it on a day to day basis. You're allowing these tools to do it for you. Whether it's 11 o' clock at night, 3 in the morning or 8:30 in the morning when you're, you know, taking your kids to school. It's all happening to your benefit without you having to sit at a computer and poke away and you know, you know, turn yourself into Jim Chanos.
- [58:20]
D
Well, and in the volatility that you're talking about, like most of the customers that are trading Sui, for example, aren't buyers of Sui long term. They didn't even know about SUI before they started using the tools. They, they learned about SUI because SUI has a great volatility range and, and the arbitrage strategy specifically is capitalizing on ranging prices. Scott said earlier, you know, my, my system was a little boring during this phase. It didn't do much. Well, that's truly because he had most of the, of his accumulation done. If he was more balanced and was less aggressive. But he, these are his preferences. Remember he's, he's very aggressive. What, what the smart accumulation will, will act as is the activity when the markets are bottoming so or the activity when the markets are topping when you're, when they're rounding. So if you aren't seeing activity in the rounding bottoms, it's because you are more heavily using the arbitrage side, the trending side, the ones that you are using when a channeling. If you equally distributed your capital and you said you know what, I want to play trends and I want to play accumulation at the same time and you would see activity all the time because there would be, they are counter to one another. They trade when the other one is not trading. And that gives you coverage. It just depends upon where you are and the way that I've told people. It's kind of like look at these tools as reallocation tools. If you're at 0% crypto allocation and you're trying to get to what Larry Fink has said is the prescribed amount of 5% then you can do use the tools exceptionally effectively to get you from 0 to 5%. If you're at 90% and you want to back it to 50%, the tools can exceptionally get you to 50% while capitalizing on the volatility. So it really is what, whatever your individual circumstances, the, the tools will provide you the, the, the, the, the way in which you're reacting to the market conditions that are, are indicative of good buying opportunities and good selling opportunities versus you. You know, act acting like the market should react to your time frame. Like you going in the market randomly and selling or buying is literally going in blind and expecting the market to care what you want it to do. Whereas the best thing to do is go, you know what, I'm, I'm wanting to offload a little bit of crypto. I'm looking to sell some. Well, when should I sell? Well, you should sell a little bit at a time so you DCA out so you get proper price exposure. And then you should capitalize on short term volatility swings so you're selling on big green candles where your fill prices are better. You have the most exit liquidity. Like all the things that are counter to trading manually, these automated tools do for you while you're not monitoring them. So you just have an extinct distinct advantage that you otherwise didn't have. And a lot of people don't understand trading automation and they think that it's like a one size fits all tool that's going to make you money. It's not that. It's a host of tools that we can teach you to use that. We're so confident in your use of it that you'll see value, that we've offered it for free. So come and download it, start using it. Talk to our customer service team. Don't talk to them. Your choice. We will help you become proficient in using them. And if you don't find value in them, we want to know. Because we don't have customers that. That say that. And. And if you have a unique perspective that can shed light on a customer subset that we can better serve, we're all for that.
- [62:13]
A
Ryan asked if there's any default parameters or best practices. There are, kind of. And you can just tell them you want what I have. If you want to go as hard.
- [62:22]
B
You want to go full milker, you.
- [62:24]
A
You can never go full milker as, you know, like, what's. Yeah, Never go full milker. Yeah.
- [62:33]
B
Yeah. There are some. You know, we. We have setups. We have a bunch of case studies too, that show those setups. And, yeah, you could talk to our team and say, hey, you know, give me the bitcoin arbitrage algorithm strategy. They'll set you up with it. So, yeah, it's. It's as easy and as simple as we could possibly make it.
- [62:54]
A
I'm getting out of here before cloud flare cancels me. I would just like to remind you guys, though, I could see it on your faces.
- [63:03]
C
Shame, shame, shame.
- [63:10]
B
It reminds me of Monty python's bring out your dead.
- [63:14]
A
You know, bring out your dad. But I'm not dead yet.
- [63:18]
B
I'm not dead. You will be.
- [63:22]
A
So good. Oh, God, we're so old. All right, guys, before we embarrass ourselves further, we're out of here. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you to. Thank you, Matt. It was great. See you guys later. Bye.
- [63:34]
B
Let's do.