← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
Tom Dunleavy
Market sentiment is bullish as bitcoin pushes towards $110,000 leading many to believe that new all time highs are imminent. And we have some actual opinions and evidence that an alt season could be coming with crypto ETFs likely to be approved and a lot of reasons to believe that money could flow into some altcoins. We're going to dig into that and more today with Tom Dunleavy and of course Mr. Chris inks on the back half. You guys ready? I'm ready. Let's go, let's go.
- [00:49]
Chris Inks
Let's do.
- [00:50]
Tom Dunleavy
How you guys doing? I had a couple accidental days off. I did not intend to miss macro Monday, sadly or yesterday's show, but had some travel and things going on last second that kept me from being able to do it. But I am back today and we've got an awesome guest, Tom Dunleavy. A face you've seen here many, many times before, but has better hair today than than in the past.
- [01:13]
Unknown Guest
We're growing it out, baby. We're growing it out for a little bit.
- [01:16]
Tom Dunleavy
Just, just, just noticed it got the little front thing going on very gen. I don't know which gen is it? Z that would do that. Yeah. What are we.
- [01:24]
Unknown Guest
As long as it's not dyed, right? Like with the, the yellow.
- [01:28]
Tom Dunleavy
Oh, you need frosted tips for sure. Frosted tips. I think that would be amazing. So listen, nothing triggers anger like saying alt season at this point, right? But I will bring up an article here. Bitwise calls Eth Solana XRP link the cleanest plays as tokenization narrative builds and then we have a story that there are 31 billion stablecoin surge at binance revives traders Alt season hopes this is the highest reserve of stable coins that people have ever been holding on finance, period. And generally you don't see a huge supply of stable coins sitting on an exchange slightly at risk unless people intend to use them. Right?
- [02:12]
Unknown Guest
Agreed. So to the first point, you know there are a few plays that make a lot of sense when you're looking at stable coins. So eth where most of the activity is Solana, which has a huge amount of growing stablecoin activity link I could see is supplying the oracles for a lot of not only stable coins but RWAs as they continue to grow. So kind of get that. The XRP one I really just still don't get. I mean it's more centralized than all the other providers. They only have 35 validators. They're slower, they run at like 20 TPS and they have A stable coin on top of them. But all these other stable coins have much more liquidity. So that one I'm not really sure about. I think it's still like a banking meme coin. But the others totally makes sense to me. I think there are great ways to play not only stablecoin adoption, but RWA proliferation in the next few years.
- [03:02]
Tom Dunleavy
So how do you think that you'll be able to play those as an investor? And does that actually have a trickle down effect to altcoins where we could see a true alt season?
- [03:12]
Unknown Guest
Yeah. So I think the alt season is certainly going to be different this time, just given the amount of money that are coming that is going to come into Bitcoin not only through the ETFs, but through sovereigns and through things we've talked about ad nauseam. So I think this altcoin season is going to look a lot different. It's Bitcoin really raising the bar and then alts probably playing at whatever the 30%, 35% level of total crypto market cap that they've played at, but at a much, much higher level than they were previously. Now it's funny because Ethereum is one of those assets that you would think would really play along nicely in the stablecoin and RWA adoption cycle. And you've seen a lot of people recently on Twitter and otherwise kind of turn around and start talking about Ethereum ready to pump, especially those who've been uber bearish, even some like bitcoin maxi ish people on Twitter, which is kind of surprising. And usually price sort of leads narrative in these situations. But it seems like the ETH narrative is really starting to flip a lot and the prices not really move too much, particularly when you're having these huge amounts of inflows from these ETH treasury companies that are not being built out. So I'm a bit worried there. But fundamentally I think ETH is still really, really exciting here. Chainlink. Oh man, so hard to handicap. I mean that thing has not moved for absolute years despite the link marines really, really hammering the table.
- [04:32]
Tom Dunleavy
But even beyond the link marines, I mean there are really fundamentally incredible things that are happening with Chainlink, right? I mean nobody has more partnerships and has more people adopting the technology to use it. It's necessary technology for every single major, you know, a use case of crypto should move.
- [04:51]
Unknown Guest
And, and, and it's down still 80 or so from all time highs. It's absolutely crazy. I mean it just hasn't seemed to matter at all for the price of the asset. So you know, we've seen recent pumps. Late last year I think it hit 32, but now it's sitting at 14. So you know, in terms of like a speculative play and playing into the back of a lot of the things that are happening here, I think it's, it's fantastic. But man, for some reason, I don't know if it's because the asset's too big or they're already too many holders or the tokenomics are just not what they should be. But for some reason it's not moved, particularly when it's even in the bigger new mutual fund type ETF products like these big guys like Bitwise and others are building. It's in there. So I don't know why it's not moving.
- [05:33]
Tom Dunleavy
Kind of nothing's moving. So I guess it begs the question what would be able to move all altcoins at once? Like a true old alt season. You know better than anyone how many things are still waiting to launch. This goes back to the old question of who's going to possibly buy the supply for all of the hyped tokens that exist on this planet and are yet to exist on this planet. Right. Because obviously we know there's this massive wave of institutional adoption of bitcoin. A lot of that is locked in the stock market and is now floating down to circle and coin and treasury companies and miners. Right. How does that work?
- [06:10]
Unknown Guest
Yeah, so we need, so we think about traditional markets. Who actually buys equities? There are few individuals who buy equities. There are hedge funds who buy equities. There are mutual funds that you and I put in money directly or through our 401ks to buy. Then there are folks who just throw money in like you know, a passive index. And that index, say the S&P 500 or whatever buys those 500 constituent stocks and you buy individual equities. So like for crypto we have like effectively none of that. It's all like discretion traders saying like hey, I want to go buy Drift or hey, I want to go buy Chainlink or hey, I want to go buy Ether Solana. We're just starting to see that change with the ETFs. The hedge fund complex in crypto, the discretionary traders is still enormously small for what it being versus TradFi. So that area is going to continue to grow as the asset class grows. So we're seeing that a little bit. But what's most exciting is that kind of mutual fund institutional complex is now really being turned on. Not Only through these treasury fund companies that are purchasing the assets directly, but through these cool new indexes that folks are launching. So like the Coinbase product, like a bunch of the Bitwise products. And it's not only that they're launching, but actually the distribution mechanisms that happen downstream. So you don't have to be just an accredited investor and go to Bitwise anymore. Now maybe your RIA or your financial advisor or someone like that can actually just put you in that product. I was hanging out with one of my buddies the other day who's a financial advisor and he's like, hey, my clients are now begging me for this stuff. And, and I'm in a position and one of the biggest RAs actually said this. Thanks, Edelman Financial engines that like, if I'm not talking to my clients about crypto and actively recommending it in some percentage, like, I'm actually like fiduciarily liable. Like I could be like sued or whatever because I didn't give my client access to one of the best performing asset classes of the last decade and I didn't even educate them on it. So like, those sort of flows are really exciting. And all the new products, they're actually going to buy some of these assets now that's like all the assets in the top 50, maybe top 100. The real long tail, like 100 plus, I still think is going to be really challenging. So me personally, I think a broader altcoin season is really going to be hard to come by just because of this meme coin phenomenon. It's just like maybe top 50 with the institutional stuff and then the back half, which is all like the crazy meme coin shit and pump fun and all that. We could talk about that. But then like the assets from 50 to 500, like, I think you just need a really robust, like hedge fund complex to buy those things. And I just don't think it's going to be there for a decent amount of time.
- [08:45]
Tom Dunleavy
So the answer is what we have called alt season is never happening again. So now we're saying there will be an alt season, but basically we're just saying select few altcoins will likely go up and maybe less than bitcoin.
- [08:58]
Unknown Guest
That's my view. I don't, I don't think we're having like, like, like we're not having the season where it's like, oh wow, bitcoin's up, you know, whatever 2x and everything else is up 5x, like everything else, like no matter what happens, because there's just not enough Liquidity to actually make it happen. At this point, there's just too many coins. We've talked about this ad nauseam. There's ten thousand plus, whatever, maybe a hundred thousand plus. If you look at the meme coins, there's just not enough people who are buying these things, especially not enough to move them. So, Yeah, I think 50 to 500, like, you want to fight to get into the top 50 or you want to be like, way out on the risk curve to try to, like, to try to get some returns.
- [09:32]
Tom Dunleavy
But it's way out on the risk curve. Like random meme coin of the 24 hour, you know, the flavor of the day, and then you move on with your life. Or is there stuff that will, you know, find its way?
- [09:44]
Unknown Guest
Yeah, I think there potentially could be. Right? Like, there could be things in that 50 to 500 that have, like, some big product announcement, some big partnership, something like that that actually moves the needle. But some of this stuff still doesn't move the needle for these assets because they're already trading in the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of market cap. So you really need some groundbreaking event to make things actually move. So that's where the edge is still in ct, right? If you're still grinding, you want to find those big events, you want to talk to the people who are talking about the big partnerships and see if there's anything actually that can move the needle. But it has to be big, because if it's just big within our crypto Twitter circles, it has to be so big that it's bigger than all of the other noise that's out there that's like. So it's got to be, like, exceptional to make the. It's not like, oh, hey, we just partnered with Visa or whatever, like, in some like. Or hey, we have a Google partnership that is just like Google giving us some, like, credits to, you know, run on their servers or something. It has to be, like, something really meaningful to actually move the needle.
- [10:43]
Tom Dunleavy
I mean, our title, Altcoin season about to erupt. All caps. Question mark. So. And no, it's just a question. Sorry, guys. I'm glad we put the question mark because it's question and it's all caps, but the answer is no. But that said, it's not like there's no VCs in this world who are trying to fund all these projects that are coming online. I mean, that's literally what you do. One of the big stories here on the Block, Bitcoin focused VC, EGO Death Capital close 100 million second fund, I mean that's a large fund. I have super FOMO that I missed. Their first fund, it was offered, but it was a weird time and I didn't get it done in time. This is Jeff Booth, Lyn Alden, like, and only building on Bitcoin and apparently their first fund was insane. But I mean there's still an appetite here, right? I mean there's 100 million bucks they've raised and they're not Paradigm or a 16Z. Right. And you're doing this so maybe talk about how you're even investing and what you think of people trying to raise money to make VC investments right now.
- [11:43]
Unknown Guest
So you had a cycle in venture where you had this huge run up in 2021 and then anyone and everyone could raise as long as you made a few good investments. And it was really hard not to be able to point to a few good investments during that time period. All of those VCs who raised in 2122 are effectively out of capital and are now raising. Right now those VCs are having zero luck raising. When you're a VC, you're raising in crypto, at least not really from institutional players, but mostly from high net worth individuals, a handful of fund of funds in the space and others. And those guys have all have their capital tied up in previous funds. So like that whole cohort of like 2122 VCs, I think you're going to see a huge huge wash out of those. Some of the bigger guys will still be able to raise but at much smaller fund sizes. And you've seen this from.
- [12:32]
Tom Dunleavy
And a lot of their investments still haven't launched because they're waiting for the right time.
- [12:37]
Unknown Guest
It's crazy. Yeah. So if you look at like tvpi, which is like the total value of these assets, like just like if you know that haven't launched yet and have had an up round or whatever, they're still like decent. But the DPI like distributions back to the people who have invested invested is effectively zero now for the past five years. So if I'm not getting money back as an lp, I can't really invest in a new fund. So all those funds that launched in like 2122, they're like all going to be gone. A lot of them community vcs, a lot of them smaller vcs. And again some of the bigger guys will still survive. So what does that mean for companies? It means like we're not going to be having like these really shitty protocols that got funded by like 30 community VCS and like you see I've seen a ton of projects now that came out that like would have been funded in previous cycles that are just having no luck in the pre seed seed stage. A lot of these are in like AI, particularly around like agents and things like that. A lot of them in Deepen, you know, a lot of them that sounded cool would have been funded in previous cycles are just not being funded anymore. So the things that are being funded, a lot of them are not very sexy in terms of like hey they're around stablecoins. Hey they're around like making better infrastructure and connections which doesn't lead to like really many sexy token sales or big TGEs. So like you haven't seen any in I don't know, the past six to nine months and I don't think you're really going to see a lot going forward. The consumer landscape, which is what I think most of us are excited about, like hey, really cool consumer apps, whether it be, you know, Polymarket or whatever, pumped up fun or whatever, like there's a few more of those coming but still most of the money is being spent in that infrastructure layer kind of connecting things. And like TRADFI is only like saying hey you should invest more in these things because that's where like the exits have been, particularly like to Stripe and all these others. And then that's where like they're pumping. That's why Tri is pumping dollars in. So like unfortunately it's like less speculative, more boring and like more infrastructure related. That being said like positive sign, no more L1s or L2s are really being funded which is good. But a lot of the connective tissue and the stablecoin stuff and the payments and remittances stuff is where like the huge amount of focus is in the space right now.
- [14:48]
Tom Dunleavy
It's funny someone said this guy has to be a bitcoin maxi. I just had to like I laughed outside. You're literally a VC who invests across the space. But what does it say about the times that when a VC who's invested in like I don't even know how many projects you've invested in over the time is being called a maxi because of your opinion about this? Actually your opinion is more valid because you're actually deploying capital and have money deployed. Deployed?
- [15:17]
Unknown Guest
Yeah, I don't know, got 30, 40, 50 projects or something at this point. But yeah, I'm far from a bitcoin maxi. If you scroll back to any of the past episodes, you would have seen people Yell at me because I was an ether or Soul Maxi or something. I mean. Yeah, no, I think the, the hard part right now if you were an investor is that like the, the bitcoin train as like when Alden said is like you know, not, not really stopping right now. So it's like how do you attach on other things that have some tangible value that have incremental capital flows coming in and that right now is like very, very obviously in like payments remittances and stablecoins and RWAs. RWAs more broadly.
- [15:56]
Tom Dunleavy
Yeah. I mean BlackRock now has 700,000 Bitcoin in assets under management. Right. To be clear to anyone who reads crypto Twitter and thinks that BlackRock is actively buying Bitcoin for themselves. They're not the ETFs that their custody are buying on behalf of their clients but still they've had effectively that much interest that they're custodying or I think with, with Coinbase. But they're managing 700,000 bitcoin. Bitcoin traders starting to salivate as bitcoin inches back toward 110k. Hence the, hence the title there and then reserve one aims for NASDAQ listing with 1 billion plus rays backed by former Coinbase tether execs and ex commerce secretary. I mean this is a huge for this one specifically I know Sebastian Via who's I believe the president of this. But it's pretty interesting because it's not just bitcoin, it's. It's probably how most people who hold altcoins would actually allocate their portfolio. You know majority bitcoin, a bunch of Ethan Soul and then other selective assets for a Treasury. But also I mean this literally has like the ex commerce secretary Wilbur Ross as a part of it. So this is going to be big. These are. Sebastian was the head of management Coinbase. Pretty right. So I guess this begs the question a it shows obviously with that IBIT stat just how much money has come into the bitcoin through the ETFs and that's not alt season money obviously but then that maybe the new alt season which I keep saying is these treasury companies.
- [17:26]
Unknown Guest
That's yeah, the treasury companies are the new alt season. BlackRock actually makes more off of that one ETF than they do on their S&P 500 ETF because of the fee structure which is like absolutely crazy and just gives them more push and they're like, I'm sure if they see that they're like wow, how quickly can we do all these other ETFs for all these other assets. I think the interest is going to run out pretty quickly, but you are going to have folks who start to say like, wow, okay, now I know this money's coming in. Like, let me start to build some smart mutual funds of this money and then try to attract capital from all the people who are now allowed to buy it. Like literally a lot of these people are still not allowed to buy it or just starting to be allowed to buy it. So still, still like a huge underrated little piece of it.
- [18:09]
Tom Dunleavy
So what do you think about a Treasury company like this that's expanding beyond just being a bitcoin treasury company or just being an ETH company? Do you think that it'll gain extra demand or you think they'll get the maxi attacks?
- [18:24]
Unknown Guest
I don't know if this is contrarian or not. I think all of these treasury companies are like really sort of stupid and like law of diminishing returns pretty quickly. Like I get like, I'm not sure if you wanted to invest in one of these things, why you wouldn't just buy like MicroStrategy, who's been able to build like a full suite of bitcoin products, has like a pretty strong staple in the industry. Like why would you invest in like, I don't know, pumps versus like sailors or something like that. Like if you're doing a new novel, unique asset, like you know, great. Joe Lubin's the first one to Ethan teams. There are a few others who are fighting for it. Like, okay, that's probably going to gain market share but if you're like the first mover on these things, they can gain money. But there's only a few assets out there that are going to have real demand. So like sol. Okay, great. Maybe xrp. I saw one with bnb, there's one with Tron, I think too. So there's only so many of these. If there's a, I don't know, hyper liquid version of this or institutional investors or others who can only purchase equities or want exposure are going to be like, oh, I need to buy the hyper liquid treasury company? Probably not. So I, I think these, the law of diminishing returns is going to come pretty quickly for these things.
- [19:31]
Tom Dunleavy
Yeah, I got Pomp's newsletter yesterday and it said basically they were trading at the lowest premium to nav, which made it an opportunity, which may be true. I mean, is that how you analyze these at this point? Like one of them's trading at 9x the Bitcoin, they hold one of them's trading at 1 1/2. I buy the one that's 1 1/2 and there's a mean reversion and they all go to four or five.
- [19:51]
Unknown Guest
Like I, I still don't get why any of them traded a premium to Nap personally. So I would bet on the opposite on all those spreads. Pretty much compressing, I would say the only one, you know, MicroStrategy has, I think it's like such a lead. Yeah, it's, it's, well it's, it's like a 1.7x or something. Last time I checked to, to their.
- [20:08]
Tom Dunleavy
That's like believe that MicroStrategy is going to actually build a bitcoin based business, become a bitcoin bank or financial services, whatever it is. So I think that that's a justified premium if you think that they're going to add value on top of it. I think it's. Dave Weisberger always argues on here. He's like, look at JP Morgan stock or Goldman Sachs. They all trade at a premium to their entire assets like the assets under management or their total assets because they're offering a service that justifies that premium.
- [20:36]
Unknown Guest
Exactly. He's trying to build effectively like a bitcoin yield curve.
- [20:40]
Tom Dunleavy
Right.
- [20:40]
Unknown Guest
You could hold spot Bitcoin all the way out to this esoteric product using convertibles or whatever that we can have. And you could be a bitcoin treasury and we have the MicroStrategy name brand which has some intangible value to it. Fantastic. There's some premium there, but yeah, Bitcoin treasury company number 50. Why do I care about that? Why do I need that? I don't think any of these things have staying power to be honest. I think it's a complete flash in the bone. Good business for the bankers though. One of the companies that does these, I get a newsletter literally every morning. Like a new company doing, doing this for, you know, we're either converting some of our existing holdings to bitcoin or hey, we're you know, acquiring this company and converting to it like literally every day. So I think it's, it's like just a fad right now.
- [21:32]
Tom Dunleavy
Yeah. Rand Nooner actually broke it down for me kind of last week on a podcast because he had seen so many of these decks. I've seen it as well. It was basically like, you know, if it's an Ethereum treasury company, you just transfer your eth over. He looked at all the investors and it was all people who like are massive holders of eth he was like, you transfer your ETH from yourself to them and then you reverse merge and all of a sudden you get a 10x or 8x or a 7x on the ETH you had and you just take your money out and play with the casino's money because you're basically liquid already. Because the stock has reverse merge and you have the stock and you either go back to holding ETH or you buy seven times as much ETH or you just have a whole ton of cash. So this makes a ton of sense. Once again. I kind of keep saying this is like the ICO boom of 2025. You're effectively finding a new creative way to print money out of thin air. But I don't understand, like you said, if where's the demand going to come from and what happens when they go back to nav or discount for anyone who actually buys the stock?
- [22:34]
Unknown Guest
Yeah. If you wanted Ethereum today, would you go buy the ETF or would you go buy SBET or whatever Sharply's ticker is? I'm not sure why you'd go buy the crypto related equity versus just the actual asset. Unless you don't have access to it, which at this point almost everyone should.
- [22:52]
Tom Dunleavy
You know, you buy bmnr, which is Bitmine Immersion Technologies, which is the Tom Lee Ethereum treasury company that went up 3,800% in five days because of news that they were gonna buy ETH. I'm not even sure they have assets under management yet because I'm not sure that they've bought it. I'm not sure they've actually bought any ETH yet. But this just blows my mind because ETH is never going up 3,800%. But a company that says they'll buy. Ethan hold it went up 3,800%?
- [23:24]
Unknown Guest
Yeah. I mean, this is the kind of crazy stuff it's like when you think about like the nuts and bolts of finance. It's like there's some projectable future value or growth rate you have for these companies. And like what's the growth rate for a company that just holds a native asset? It's like the asset. So I don't know. And then you have all these other associated costs with it. So I'm not sure where like the premium comes from, except like from something what Sailor's doing or some like name brand. So like you could see all the name brands that are launching.
- [23:49]
Tom Dunleavy
Why are they trading at a premium? Like why is it even happening? What, what, what black magic financial engineering is allowing this to be a Thing.
- [23:59]
Unknown Guest
Speculation. That's a speculation.
- [24:01]
Tom Dunleavy
Aren't those usually like. I don't think this is the top by the way, but aren't those usually like top signals when this complete nonsense? I think it, this is the bubble but the early part of it. Right. So you know.
- [24:12]
Unknown Guest
Yeah, agreed. I think this is the early crazy part of the bubble that no one saw coming when people thought tried fire would get involved. I don't think anyone saw like hey, we're gonna by a bunch of holding companies that hold these assets. So I'm actually surprised the underlying assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana haven't moved more though from these pretty big purchases. Sailor's been buying bitcoin in at least some relative size for what, 30, 40 weeks and then you have all these others that are buying it. We're still doing pretty well on bitcoin but we haven't broken through all time highs. So can it get crazier with more of these treasury companies? I think we're pretty close to the top in those, so there's got to be net new demand and then the other assets in the top 50 are much smaller. So maybe more treasury companies for something, I don't know, like a move like ETF or something like that or I'm.
- [25:02]
Tom Dunleavy
Sorry, even like smaller ones you mentioned hasn't moved the price. Right. You'd think that if someone said hey, we're raising a billion dollars to buy X asset, that asset itself would go up a lot because that would actually like a billion dollars would actually be a ton of demand for a smaller altcoin. Right. That should actually mean be meaningful to the market, unlike with Bitcoin or even Ethereum.
- [25:22]
Unknown Guest
But it doesn't happen exactly. And it just, it hasn't moved the market. So I don't know if the timing of these purchases is just like, you know, they're announcing it and they're purchasing it over time or later, quarterly or whatever it is. But it certainly hasn't moved anything yet. So I don't know to put it on it. I think we're pretty close to the top of, of these treasury type companies because we're entering like cash grab season and people are just kind of cashing in on their name in my, in my view for a lot of these.
- [25:46]
Tom Dunleavy
Totally agree. Tom, thank you so much for jumping on. Tom came on last minute for us today. So you're always ready to go. By the way, what golf course is that over your core, over your shoulder and did you get that on like Etsy? Because my Wife literally bought me two of those exact things years ago and I've never seen them otherwise.
- [26:02]
Unknown Guest
Yeah, it's Charles River Country Club here in Mass. So it's. They play two days of the Mass amateur gear and then two days at the country club, which is more like the, the famous one. But yeah, I think I'm Etsy. I gotta Christmas, so.
- [26:12]
Tom Dunleavy
Yeah, but that's so funny that you know the exact same one. I've never seen it anywhere else.
- [26:17]
Unknown Guest
I was hanging and then a bunch of sports cards over here which are coming back. Baby, let's go.
- [26:21]
Tom Dunleavy
I got, I got a couple, like a fat couple, couple balls up there. Yeah, I was a huge sports card collector as a kid. All right, man, thank you very much everybody. Give Tom a follow. We'll see you soon.
- [26:33]
Unknown Guest
See you soon.
- [26:35]
Tom Dunleavy
Quickly, before we head on to Chris, obviously we're going to talk a little bit about Aptos, who's our amazing sponsor here every single week of our lives, as we reported before. But now once again, Aptos RWA TVL surge 55% to 537.5 million. Ranking third after Ethereum and ZK sync era. So tons of new interest on the chain. And here, as you can see, top 3 chains in RWAs 540 million in RWA value 55% RW TVL increase. Real world Aptos, as I mentioned, you know, Aptos really the cheapest, fastest, most favorable place for developers at this moment. And every week it's just a huge new wave of news. I think if you're developing things, building things in the space. Avery is an incredible, incredible CEO and leader. He's now, you know, officially on the committee, speaking with the cftc. I think you should take a very deep look at Aptos. Chris, how are you, buddy?
- [27:35]
Chris Inks
What's going on, man?
- [27:37]
Tom Dunleavy
Dude, the flooding in Texas was near where you used to be, right?
- [27:41]
Chris Inks
Yeah, I mean it was looking and.
- [27:42]
Tom Dunleavy
I was like, I know you don't live there anymore, but I know you did.
- [27:45]
Chris Inks
Yeah, yeah, it was about, I guess probably about an hour. Just which in Texas is nothing, you know, just a little bit north of where I was. So. Yeah, because I was living in Bernie and that happened in Kerrville and just absolutely awful. And I've got, you know, it. There was flooding over there in Austin as well, you know, New Braunfels, that whole area just. But now, man, you know, 100 plus people dead still tons of people missing. And then now you're here, you know, you're seeing in Ruidoso, New Mexico. You're Seeing in, I guess Arkansas and Oklahoma, just floods everywhere. Just absolutely, it's, it's awful, man.
- [28:25]
Tom Dunleavy
Yeah, it's absolutely terrible. I will, you know, hopefully that will sort out and the rain will stop. It's just such a sad, sad story. I thought of you first as my, you know, Texas, my guy in Texas. But I knew you were out of that area. Let's take a look at some charts though now. Gotta take mine off. What are you thinking about the market here? We had this title bitcoin exploding to 110. I mean it's been kind of just a tempting fate right there underneath I think. And a lot of people seeming to get really bullish. Is this one of those things where everybody's getting bullish at resistance or where you think we smash through it?
- [28:58]
Chris Inks
You know, I, I think, I think it's a little bit of a toss up here. I think we get, if we can get a, in impulsive breakout here above this. This is the bitcoin all time history index here. So but if we get a breakout above that like 110, 600 area, impulsive breakout there, I would look here at around 1 12, 400 or so and then 114,000. And if we continue pushing out through there, you know, I think we could see it up here around120,122 is the next step up. But you know, again this daily, we haven't really got a reset on the daily here on the stochastic rsi. RSI remains bullish as well, ab neutral. So it's possible you could see just like a, a pump up and through here and then a pullback down toward this 105, 3, 154 area before we take off. So I'm, you know, I, I don't have like a, a definitive which way it's going to go there. But right now I am looking for at least to break out locally here and head up, you know, potentially toward, you know, just slightly into a new top, new all time high, maybe a little bit higher at least. So I mean it'll be something, you know, again the market, a lot of times what we'll get because we've been going sideways here since back May 22nd or so. So you know, we're looking at a month and a half of sideways here and a lot of times what you'll end up getting is you'll get a breakout here to trap those breakout traders and then you get a pullback and then everybody's like, you know, of course the bears are like, oh look we told you, we told you the tops it and somebody tries to short and you get a pullback and you get enough people in there and then you turn them around and take it out the other way. So you're taking out your, you're, you know, you're overly anxious bulls. Then you're taking out the people who are trying to say, oh look, yeah, we, you know, it's going back down the tops in. And that just kind of really opens up, it kind of clears that, that Runway to really kind of get Price heading up. Iron sticks people where they become, you know, even those that maybe didn't jump in just yet, now they're very confused and they're unsure. So they don't, they don't, you know, get those cells in there. So Price can really kind of move. So that's what I kind of look at. But bigger picture here is we've got three waves down here. We stopped just shy of this swing high. So you know, it's basically around June 9th our time and that's kind of around 1106 somewhere right around there. So again, if we can get above that, that's going to lock that in as corrective right here. It does appear to be a spring based on this price action and volume in this range here. So again, getting this move up, you know, wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a move up here. Pull back and go. But definitely open to it to it just kind of going, you know, just ripping and going. So we'll see. It's been, it hasn't been an overly boring summer yet. You know, again we had this down to begin. Now we're right back up here near the all time high. So it could continue to get a bit more interesting as summer plays out.
- [31:49]
Tom Dunleavy
Yeah. What else are you looking at in the context of this bitcoin exploding to 110,000 alt alts coin season about to erupt. All caps but question mark.
- [31:58]
Chris Inks
Well, your guest there, I saw him talking about all and you know, he didn't think that, that it's going to be the same old all season we already had already, you know, that we always have and you know, again, you know me, I've been talking about that since, since the Bitcoin ETFs came out in January of 2024. And then not long after the guys over there bitwise were saying the same thing which is this idea that because of the way in which money is going to flow in now and how it's going to flow into bitcoin it's not that same, that same kind of cycling that we've always seen every cycle, you know, where you get the bitcoin, then you go to you know, mega caps and then large caps, mid caps, small caps, micros and back around. And so you know, again I, I still think we get, you know, some sectors probably popping out of there but I, I'm, I'm open to it, to it being what it's been in the past but I just, I don't see it happening still because so much money is concentrated there into Bitcoin. Now we are seeing some flows into, into Ethereum which you know, if you've been deriding Ethereum for you know, a year or two or three now, you know, feel sorry for you. You know, I've been saying that Ethereum is going to hit a new all time high this cycle. I still think it's true. But as far as other alts go, I, you know, usually I'm looking at a bit more kind of mainstream alts where everything kind of looks the same. I decided to look at some little bit different ones here. This one really got my interest. This is M I R A I, I have no clue.
- [33:28]
Tom Dunleavy
I'm still seeing bitcoin up there for you.
- [33:30]
Chris Inks
Oh, I'm sorry. Let me, let me do this again. There we go. Does that look?
- [33:34]
Tom Dunleavy
Yep.
- [33:34]
Chris Inks
All right. Yeah. So M I R A I again have no clue, don't care what it does. We're trading charts but this looks like a nice clean downturn here. We're getting support right around the S1 pivot here on the monthly pivots and if we jump into the weekly pivots right there at the S1 as well, the 12 hour has this nice bullish divergence from back here around June 22nd to this low. So I'm kind of really liking this bearish market structure coming off this, you know, off the, the entry here. So if we're breaking out above this point, 00666, that's going to break that bearish market structure. And usually what I want to see is not just a break of the market structure. Right. I want to see a pullback after it breaks out some point and then a breakout above that point that broke out. It's good. So kind of like, you know, you get the breakout. Okay. So you break the bearish market structure, you pull back and then you break out again. Kind of confirms that continued movement. So that's what I, I like to see. But yeah, if we're breaking out above That I think, you know, the year. I'm sorry, this is the monthly pivot at 0.011 is an easy target as a matter of fact. And, and if we're taking that out, impulsive breakout and close above that, I think we at least run to 32. Well, I'm sorry, not 32 cents. 0.032 and I think there's a pretty easy chance we hit 0.065 up here. So you know, we're talking about right now it being at 0.005 and quite potentially hitting 0.065 or higher coming up on that. So that's one that I'm really kind of interested in right now. It looks prime to go. We definitely want to see some, some breakout here. Let me see here. What else do we have? Oh gosh. Gotta get this chart set up over here. Let me see here. Here's another one. I'm kind of looking at ZBN. ZBN, can't even say it. ZBCN again looks really clean, not just from the S1. What was that?
- [35:39]
Tom Dunleavy
You don't know?
- [35:40]
Chris Inks
Zip again, not really. But I, I like this kind of this area right here. So you've got this resistance, this resistance, the big push through it. And as I always teach you know traders, when you have this multiple hits of a resistance and then finally you'll get the breakout, usually you'll get a retest of that before it continues higher. So that looks, you know, pretty close to what we've got right here. I think this is a good pullback. We're rallying up again here on the daily. We've got bearish market structure off that swing high. So you really kind of get a, you know, need to get above this one right up here at the monthly pivot. So right up there around. 0045743. But if you can do that, new all time highs incoming. Yeah, well, I guess, yeah, I wouldn't consider this. This looks like an anomaly or some nonsense over here. So I would look at this as the, the all time high up there. But you could easily just get everything else aside. Just get a pattern target here. Just measure this out. Look for that point that 1.618 and then the 200. So you could easily look at a 0145 target followed by 0.0223 almost four there if it continues up higher. So real easy targets to kind of get on there once you break out above this.0045743 area. But really, yeah, just kind of opens it up there. So that's looking pretty great there as well. And PRCL here. Now this one a little bit different. The other two. This one I think may be coming up to a finishing up its move here. So I, I'm looking for potentially one more push higher here, maybe to 0.11. It could go higher. But that's just based off the height of this pullback here. So like I just showed you in the other thing just becomes a pattern target. But if we can get a rejection around there, I would look for a pullback down here toward this 0.0768 area right here around the pivot. And then I would just, you know, look, you know, I'd zoom into to the one hour or something like that. Look for some signs of a reversal happening at this area. Look for a reason to go long and this thing, you know, to carry. Gosh. How much higher up there? Probably. Let me see if we look at this. And again that's if we get the reversal there. But potentially looking up here around, you know, $0.25, $0.33 going on there. So you know, coming off of basically 8 cents or so. That's a, you know, a really great kind of run there for that. So those are, you know, those are the three I'm kind of really watching at the moment here that are, you know, real mainstream and whatnot.
- [38:23]
Tom Dunleavy
What's your take on the idea of an alt season in general like those of the past?
- [38:29]
Chris Inks
Yeah, again, you know, I, I don't think it happens. You know, I've been arguing that it's probably not going to happen since January of 2024 when we get the Bitcoin ETFs launched. And I don't see anything happening here that suggests that we're going to get a full on shoot monkeys in a barrel, fish in a barrel kind of thing all season. But you know, here's the thing. I, I hate when unfortunately when new people come into crypto and that's all they're waiting for and they miss all the opportunities to make money, you know, in alts that we've had already, you know, over the last year, even year and a half. So you know, I think you watch the sectors, you know, as, as we kind of as bitcoin continues to push up here. I just, I just don't see that same kind of cycling to the degree that we've had in the past. Which means the whole idea of alts recycle or cycling as it has in the past, you know, with as much oomph is. Is really likely. So.
- [39:31]
Tom Dunleavy
So we gotta be selective and look for smaller moves. Well, yeah, I think can't be expecting 100X's everywhere.
- [39:39]
Chris Inks
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But there's going to be some that I think are going to do really great. Some sectors probably going to do really great. We just need to pay a little bit more attention as they continue up. But overall, you know, total three has been bouncing here around that 800 and 850, 60 million. 60 trillion, whatever that is. Mark. Billion. Billion. That's it. And so, you know, it seems like, you know, again that overall alts may be kind of bottoming out. So, you know, don't give up hope, but definitely be paying, you know, attention to, you know, to the sectors themselves, more so than maybe just alts in general to kind of catch the ones that, that are looking to break out and you can jump on that. But proper risk management, that's what it's all about.
- [40:24]
Tom Dunleavy
Play the chart and take your small loss if it goes bad and don't worry about the thousand X's for every token you're holding.
- [40:29]
Chris Inks
There you go. Exactly the consistency. I. You know, we say in baseball, you know who's going to get paid more than anybody else? The guy who can get people on base consistently because the more people you got on base, the more opportunities you have to score. Right? And it's the same thing in trading, you know, the more times you can lock in profit, the, the greater overall that your account's going to rise versus hoping to get a, you know, 100x on this coin or that coin or whatever.
- [40:57]
Tom Dunleavy
All right, man. Well, guys, give TX West Capital a follow. You can track him, obviously with all things he has and on X. Otherwise I will see you back tomorrow. Thanks, Chris.
- [41:07]
Chris Inks
Take care, man.