← The Wolf Of All Streets
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Bitcoin faces a $75 billion SpaceX drain today. It is the largest IPO in history. This is the super bowl of financial markets. Jim Cramer says that it could soar to unsustainable heights. That's good, right? We're going to talk about that. Of course, the debate between Michael Saylor and Jack Mueller's a bitcoin Prague and Saylor's head scratching comments right now. Let's get into it. Let's go. Come on, Let's go. Good morning, everybody. Happy SpaceX IPO Day. To those who celebrate. I'm celebrating by riding a heavy falcon rocket to the moon. You can see Earth is back there somewhere. You peasants down there, just know that for the entirety of this show, I'll be looking down on you. Okay? Just know that I'm in my moon base though, where we're here for the SpaceX IPO. It's going to be exciting. I have no idea what's going to happen because I have a small enough ego to realize that I cannot predict the future. But I do expect likely that we will see some extreme volatility today. So obviously I'll get into Space X in a minute. First, I want to talk about one Michael Saylor. We're getting this little weird, awkward, Hey, I was sitting in the front row video that everybody's talking about. Let me just go ahead and show you. Show you what, Michael And I refuse
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to do it because a troll on Twitter said, hey, hey, you said never sell your bitcoin. Okay, fine. I'll destroy a billion, a hundred billion dollar company so that I don't sell my bitcoin. Well, the point is, I said to, by the way, I said to you, never sell your bitcoin. I never said that the company wouldn't sell his bitcoin. And anybody that's been listening to our earnings calls or reading our discord closures or has half a brain nose for the last five years, we've been very clear that of course we sell the bitcoin if we have to.
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Yeah, I'm gonna do this. Hey, he definitely said sell, sell a kidney, but don't sell your bitcoin. He has never personally sold any bitcoin. And if you do read their disclosures and listen to their calls because they are SEC regulated and are stacking bitcoin and have preferred securities. They have always said technically that the company would be willing to sell bitcoin because their products are backed by bitcoin. But he was feeling a little heated, feeling a little spicy that day. And I'm not sure he should have said that, right? I mean, it is technically true. He did tell us to never sell our bitcoin. I believe an individual should probably not sell their bitcoin. But, you know, somebody, it sounds like, kind of got under his skin a little bit in that one. And it's important to remember that strategy will remain a net buyer of bitcoin, no matter what they might sell a little bit. We've seen it twice in history and that they've bought more, but that one is definitely setting the world on fire. Right? This, this comment that he made there. And if you guys haven't seen the other video, I won't be showing it. But Jack Mallers is obviously the CEO of Strike NF21, a competitive treasury company. Had some spicy questions. For sale or bitcoin prong? I think he, like, stood up in the audience, is like, hey, Jack Mahler's here. Can I ask you a question? You know, like when they put the mic in a college kid's face and he debate somebody up on stage. So first of all, people are taking it that these guys, like, hate each other, but these guys love each other. I literally was at Michael Saylor's house probably in 2021, and he had a birthday cake for Jack Mahlers and we sang Happy Birthday. That happened. So he said he had a birthday party for him at his house. So these guys are definitely friendly. But it was a conversation about what would be dilutive to the strategy stock if what we just saw was not dilutive when they added to their cash balance and bought more bitcoin by selling Strategy stock. And of course, how do you calculate mnav? I wrote a newsletter about it today. Probably the best way to actually fill the space. Oh, I'm on the wrong screen again. This one. That's good. I'm so bad at this because I'm so used to doing it a different way on the other days. So just read the newsletter, the Wolf Den newsletter. But basically, the TLDR is. It's really complicated to calculate mnav. Do you consider convertible debt that's out of the money, or do you not consider it? What metric should people be looking at? Should it just be bitcoin yield or when you have a complex cash capital stack, is there more to it? But the bottom line is, if you're going to invest in treasury companies right now, it's very, very hard to define the metric at which they are successful. And you're doing better than just buying bitcoin. Now, you all know that I'm a sailor fan. I own some strc I bought. I mean, it was 92 bucks. I was like, if this thing goes back to 100, Yahtzee, you know, like, get that gap up to 100 plus that sweet, sweet 11.5% yield. But it's not like I'm putting all my savings account into trc, right? And I buy bitcoin more than I buy anything else. And that is the preferred asset that I personally would like to buy. But it's just very complicated because you can't just like divide the market cap by the amount of bitcoin you hold and be like, yay, our M. Nav, right? There's like four preferred products here. Convertible notes, the actual microstrategy stock. Very, very hard, I think, to calculate these things. Now I want to talk a little bit about the bitcoin Marquette. Oh, more importantly, I have a guy you might know. He's the president and CEO of Strategy. His name is Fong Li. You guys might know him. Very important. Talking to me at noon on the Daily Wolf. So I'm going to just flat out ask him. You know, I was like, fong, dude, you just come on the show. We don't usually do guests. We got 15 minutes. And I'm just going to hit you with all the questions that I'm seeing on social media and you can just answer them straight up. So that's probably. I don't even know why I just covered it when I could just get the correct answers. Now I'm going to probably look dumb because I probably said things are wrong. I'll probably say the things that are right, but you should watch that at noon. So listen, we're. I want to talk about where bitcoin's at. So obviously we're at kind of like peak negativity FUD here. Once again, I feel like Bitcoin down 30% and gold down 6 are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026. Something we haven't seen before in any calendar year. Year, year. That sounds bad. Then you have these kind of things. Analysts reveal harsh reality for new bitcoin buyers. So 95% of people who have bought bitcoin recently are underwater. So they're making this as the case that we have to go down further and the market can't go up because all these are going to be sellers the minute that they get back in profit. And I asked you, how does any market go up out of a bare market? If that analysis is correct? This. These are the kind of things you see at the bottom, everybody's out, there's despair. Like markets eventually go up, guys, even if there's people who are not in profit and they have to sell when they get there. But these are the kind of narratives that we're seeing repeatedly over and over again. And listen, I mean, just to take a very brief. This is going to drive me nuts. I gotta reframe this watch. That felt good. Stuck it right in there. So weird. I'm so weird. Listen, I've been telling you about my case for bitcoin bottoming. Not necessarily the bitcoin bottom. Here's the chart. This is the weekly chart. The weekly 200 MA has only had candles close below it for more than a week once in history. And that was after the FTX collapse. Right, I've showed you the chart. We can go back. But the 200mA, this is the fourth time it's ever been tested. This is only the fourth worth time that weekly RSI has ever been oversold. And right now we have just like the past ones with a wick below that 200 ma on the weekly. And by the way, when it broke over here at 105, I sent a tweet that was like, man, I don't want to be the bearer of bad news. I don't necessarily think it's going to happen. But every time we've broken the 50 ma on the weekly chart, we've gone to the 200. Back then it was at 55, right now it's risen to 62 right here. And we have potential bullish divergence. We have a higher, higher low there on rsi coming out of oversold for the fourth time in history with a confirmed lower low right here from over here in price. I mean, this is like the ultimate bottoming type setup. You have two candles. This is a nice little reversal candle. If we can close that way on Sunday, both wicking below the 200 ma and like taking a look at Kalshi here. So actually I'm going to put out a video later. I took a quick look at Per at Kalshi Perpetuals, which are doing a billion a day already and they haven't even started marketing yet. But Kalshi is actually legal in the United States. Like we keep talking about Poly Market, but I can't trade on Poly Market. So now I'm going to start looking at Kalshi, who hopefully we working with a lot in the future. But this is their bitcoin markets right here. Right? So if you believe that we're bottoming or that the bottom is in. There's a gajillion ways here to take a directional bet on this. So they do have perps. And now with like 5.8x leverage, it's very low. But like how low will bitcoin get in June? Like this month, in the next two and a half weeks, do you think we're going below 55? 14% think so. How low will it get this year? Below 45,000? 43% think that. Personally, I would probably take the other side of that. I don't think we're going to go below 45,000 this year unless Elon Musk blows us up. So that could happen tomorrow if SpaceX goes down, let's be honest, right end of 20, 26. So bearish. 60 to 64, 50 to 54, if you're at all bullish right now, I think it's pretty clear that you can make some pretty strong directional bets. Will bitcoin be above 200k by next year? 95%. No. Okay, that's pretty. Yeah. 250k. 97%. I mean, you might as well take the 250k bet, right? Yeah. So will bitcoin hit 50 before 100? Yes. I mean listen, 50 is a lot closer than 100, but. So that's what. But like there's a million ways that you can actually like handicap this. But I think what's most notable here is that they're exceptionally, exceptionally positioned. Bearish. When I look across the entire board here and it's pretty ugly out there. So listen, let's talk a little bit about Space Ass, The sequel to Spaceballs Space Ass. Latest, Jim Cramer warned Space Ass could surge to unsustainable levels at debut. So listen, I mean, let's being factual about this, right? They were looking to raise 75 billion. They, they drew more than 70 billion just from retail alone. We told you. I think it was like 4x oversubscribed. So listen, there's a lot of smash buy orders right at the open today and I would imagine most investors are still locked. They don't get their shares today. So you would have to imagine, rationally, I'm not saying this will happen, but we often see it happen that on the first day or in the first hours, we probably see a massive move up, right? Because there's not that many sellers who have shares yet. And there's going to be so much buying coming in. The question is what will happen, you know, over the next few months, the 10 biggest IPOs in history went down an average of 35% in their first six months. SpaceX wants 1.75 trillion and Friday and people are calling it a generational entry. So you know that I've definitely been a bit concerned about where the liquidity for all of this is going to come from today. But I think if the liquidity was coming out, that's probably the tech sell off we saw last week. Liquidity is out, right? I mean, people are going, they want to buy today. They've sold whatever they need to sell to buy that today. So I think to some degree that's probably good news. But like, you got this guy, man, look at him. Is he gonna be right? So actually, you know, he's kind of right. He's actually well positioned here, if you read the quote, because it's basically saying it will be a massive punt. But unsustainable also implies bearishness. So I guess it actually makes sense that you could see a massive pump and then a dump. I think Coinbase did that. Right. It had a massive pump on the first half of day one, started to dump and went down indefinitely before taking a very, very long time to come back. Now, of course Senator Warren doesn't want this to happen today. I would just like you to know that she hates us. Let me. I had the where's my meme One second. You guys are gonna have to wait. I had old lady yells at Cloud. It's not. This doesn't really work today because she's not yelling at crypto, but I made that. And so since I made felt right for me to share it, I was trying to make another one yesterday and I literally forgot about it before doing my show, which is sad. Now I'm going to go. You're going to sit here while I go into chat GPT and see if I ever made the beam. It's not loading. Yeah, I mean, we know that Elizabeth Warren's gonna be mad at whatever we do. She hates fun. She actually hates you. And that's why I flew to the moon. I wanted to get away from her. She's terrible. She's really awful. But I think it's fair to say that no matter what happens today is going to be epic and extremely exciting. And what are your predictions? I mean, what do you guys think will happen? Trying to zoom back. I never got that image. Didn't make it for me. Sad. What do you guys think is going to happen in the comments before we go? Pump, dump, pump to dump, dump to pump, pumpy, dumpy. Come on generational entry, my ass. Most IPOs retrace 70%. Yeah, it's good. I mean probably. I mean, 1.75 billion is a lot. Trillions a lot. And by the way, we have OpenAI an anthropic coming down the pump. Pump the dump. Then pum pum pomegranate. Famous singer Chris Brown is here. Dances. Well, I think retail are about to hold some big bags. I mean that's my. Yeah, we're all just Humpty Dump D's Retail exit liquidity. Yeah, I mean this is kind of. Kind of how I'm. How I'm feeling about it myself. But listen, I don't know. Pumpty Dumpty had a great fall. That's funny. You're funny. Rug rugs. Did you guys see on now you gotta find it? Japan, major banks. This was so funny. I was doing my show the Daily Wolf and I read this article that was like the main banks in. In Japan and one of them was mufg, which is Muffug. And one of them was smbc. And that's some bitch. Like you can't make this shit up. We're in the simulation. That's your name. Mubfug. And some bitch. And Mizuho was the third. And that's got hoe in it. So that's also funny. You know what, guys? I've covered literally everything that I want to cover today. And some days it's better to just go prep for your next show. Talking to Fong Li. We're going to do that. Chris Brown's laughing. You're a great dancer, man. Really. Michael Jackson of our era. Truly. That's all I got for you guys. I'll be back for the Daily Wolf. I'll be back on Monday with Macro Monday. Oh man, can you imagine Macro Monday this week talking about SpaceX? That's gonna be fun. Gotta get off the moon. Running out of oxygen. See you later. Let's.