← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:02]
A
Bitcoin price continues to struggle as gold and silver absolutely pump gold right at a new all time high right now. And silver making a move. What is this telling us? I know who has some ideas. Of course that's Mike McGlone because he always tells us about what gold is saying about the rest of the market. We also have the United States moving a number of warships off the coast of Venezuela. Are we on the brink of war? Have a lot to talk about today on Macro Monday. Let's go.
- [00:30]
B
Let's do. Let's dope.
- [00:45]
A
Good morning everybody and welcome to Macro Monday. Happy, happy Labor Day to those who celebrate and give the channel a subscribe, subscribe and a like I'm gonna go ahead and bring on Mike, Dave and James. Thanks for showing up on this very important national holiday that I would argue 99 of people don't know why we celebrate Labor Day.
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B
Well, it's, I mean, I guess one.
- [01:09]
A
Could argue that I, you know, my kid this morning was like Labor Day. What are we celebrating, people?
- [01:17]
B
The sense is it's AI celebrating AI. That's right. The, you know, but it's obviously for those who are. And there are lots of non Americans watching. It's the end of summer and kids go back to school afterwards in America. So it's that last gasp that.
- [01:35]
A
That's right. It's exactly what it is. So Mike, I know the markets aren't open today. I don't know if you had the morning meeting, but we can give the summary and then. Okay, we'll skip the morning meeting and we'll jump straight to gold because this is actually really important and we have a lot of headlines surrounding this. Gold and silver jump as rate cut bets reignite. Bull run. We got bitcoin split personality. We'll get into this. On display as gold hits new record. As I mentioned before, kind of struggling. This is the chart I really want to dig into after you kind of give your gold silver breakdown. Foreign central banks hold more gold than Treasuries. This is the first time in 30 years that this has crossed since basically 1996. And I want to dig in with everyone on what this means because this opened my eyes when I saw it. But go ahead, Mike. Where are we at with gold?
- [02:20]
C
Yeah, it's. I'm becoming very concerned about markets very similar to 99, 2007. I remember this eerie feeling before 9 11. Not that I called it, but I remember being way over late. Long bonds. And we all knew Internet stocks were too expensive. Just getting that feeling now. And the Key thing to remember about gold I think is it's almost a perfect storm. Number one, we have the most discombobulating, discombobulating president probably in US history. So gold loves President Trump. It is the things he does pushing back and fed independence and pushing back in US data and all those kind of things that are somewhat traditional, that's fine. But it's also what's happening on a global scale. We know that central banks, they're still buying, they curtailed their buying. The World Gold Council puts great data on that. Significance is the last three years they bought the about, about a thousand tons a year. That's almost two to three times the average of the last 10 years. And there's good reason for that. It's the world order shifted with the unlimited friendship. And now we have this very, you know, the whole world looks at the US with their eyes wide open. What is going on in that country that used to be there to just save us? And we could export stuff too, thank you very much. But that's somewhat ending. And at the same time what's really been happening is gold investor inflows are significant this year. ETF flows, they're up about 11, almost 12% now. And that's after four years of outflows. The thing is that's very rare to happen when volatility is going down. Now the Vix 50 day moving average is potentially, it's like, it's just bottom. It's very rarely happens. And when the stock market's hitting record high. So I think what's happened is we're seeing this paradigm shift on a global scale where people are saying all right, we need something to diversify us and lock in some profits and certainly from equities. And so here's my numbers. I don't know. Gold's put in like almost a perfect bull flag for five months in a row. This is starting the six months as of today. And then you look at yourself like, okay, what's this is looks too easy. It's just supposed to break out to the next key level which is around $4,000 an ounce. And the key thing, it's also pulling up all the other precious metals with it. Gold, silver's catching up a little bit. Platinum, one of the best performing metals this year. But it was gold. The gold platinum ratio just a few months ago was the platinum was the lowest in our database going back almost 30 years. So everything is breaking out for gold. And the key question is what stops now? So I'll end with this. The Key thing I'm worried about is we're starting September. We know this is sometimes this time of year, September, October, you can have years trade in a few, in a few months we have this eerie, very, you know, low volatility period. The, the low for the year in, in the VIX was just last month around 14.2. And that's when bitcoin put its high last month. The high for the year in the VIX was in April and that's when bitcoin put in its low. So people are to realize, they're starting to realize that the whole crypto space is wonderful, but it's very much significant. Even certainly bitcoin a risk on space and gold's a risk off. And we're getting towards the time of year, it's a risk typically bouncy picks up. So you absolutely need the stock market to go up. You want to see Mr. Trump pull back on his outrageousness, but that's not going to happen. So I see a perfect storm for gold to go higher. I just don't know what's going to end that. And that's when I look at myself. Well, that's when Susie, things go wrong. If I was way, you know, leveraged long, which in my past was. So if I was leveraged long and I was saying the same thing, it would go down. It's just the way things work when you're a trader. But so I, I see gold still one of the best performing assets here. So I'm very concerned it's going to continue to do that and I'm concerned we're going to have a period that we're going to look back at this period right now, some of the time we did is 1999 and 2007. That's why to me these next three months are so significant. The stock market risk, assets, bitcoin has to go up, but I think at a minimum the Vix is at least going to go to 20. That's basically the average this year and then what it does after that. And at minimum bitcoin is at least going to go to 100,000. It's what happens after that that matters. And gold just is front running things.
- [06:19]
A
Yeah, but we've had silver that's been kind of lagging this entire time. Here's the silver chart. We're back to the highest we've been since 2011, actually a hair's breadth, 25% ish off the all time high, which depending on who asked about 49, just sub 50. We're back over 40 bucks for the first time since 2011. This actually looks like the gold chart looked before it broke out to new all time highs and basically flew from 2 to 4. Right. So this isn't just a gold thing. Dave, I see you nodding.
- [06:51]
B
You got it. Put it in 20, $25. And the chart looks very, very different. That straight line will look like Swiss cheese, will be like the tissue paper it's going to rip through. What people consistently do in trading is do everything in nominal terms. So the two biggest chart mistakes that people make when trading are when they look at stock market returns, they ignore dividends and when they look at asset returns, they ignore the depreciation or the printing as it were. In the world of bitcoin, everyone looks at it as printing, but basically depreciating value of the currency that you're valuing it in. I just got back from a trip through central Europe, which was fascinating. It was an incredible experience. We went through Germany, Austria and ended in Budapest, which is an amazing city. And Hungary is a particularly illustrative thing because Orban, who is equally well they're very friendly with Trump, has taken that country from inflation rates in the double digits down into the very low single digits now. And the country has a completely different vibe, but it's through the amount of building. I mean, we talked to business owners there. I mean it was fascinating. I got in conversations with owners of multiple restaurants and other things and they all say the same thing, which is, yeah, the government's going to put your hand in your pocket everywhere in Europe. But at least now in this administration, they're taking less. When we can get that here, then maybe, quote, the disruptive force that Trump is, we'll have, we'll start cleaning out the Aegean stables. That is are the muck in Washington. And so you call it disruption, I call it necessary. We disagree. Politically, that's cool. That's a different, that's a different show. But what's happening here is the dollar and the euro and every other fiat currency is being printed. So when I look at silver and I look at that chart, I'm thinking, well, geez, you know, the first time it hit 50 was the hunt brothers cornering it. Well, that's bullshit. You know, you could take 50% of that move and kind of eliminate it from the chart because if the manipulation didn't happen, it wasn't going over the 20s. The next time probably got it was was fairly typical over overextending. Now if you look at it based in dollars, silver Wouldn't look extended even slightly. And in fact, it looks like it's ready to start to follow gold as underpriced pointed out. Look, I think gold goes to 5,000. So I'm more bullish on gold than Mike is, which is kind of funny. I just think that that basically takes the. The upper. The. The My upper range for where bitcoin goes up by the 25. That. That would indicate that's the difference between the two of us. I think that gold is the baseline that bitcoin is going to use as from a market cap point of view. And he doesn't. And you know, we can. We can banter about that all you will, but look, I. I agree with Mike. I am very nervous about the stock market. I keep seeing posts and talking to people and when you talk to. To normal people and I talk to people who had some bitcoin or some dabbling and whatnot, but we talked to a lot of people this trip. Just normal people are outside the bubble. I didn't log on except for last week's macro Monday. I didn't participate in any of the crypto town halls. And what I saw this morning when I was going through X isn't surprising. So many people are talking about the stock market and are happy about it. When people start quitting their jobs to day trade, that's when you know the whole thing. The jig is up. But it does make. It's the. It's the, The. The selling when they're yelling. The yelling is not in crypto. There's no. There's no yelling in the world crypto. Except for in our. Inside our bubble. And even there it's really small. And certainly not in bitcoin. I mean, the overwhelming people seem technical, seem to be bearish. But in. In the stock market.
- [10:36]
A
Wow.
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B
I mean, everyone's talking about Nvidia. I must have heard Nvidia mentioned to me two dozen times.
- [10:42]
A
Not as many times as Palantir.
- [10:45]
C
We just. I want to transition to James, but I just have to mention one thing. We do not disagree politically. I did not mention one political view. I mentioned what. Based on what's happening in. In. In the political situation. This is what the market's doing and why that needs to be. That needs to be pointed out. There was no political view expressed.
- [11:04]
B
Okay, fair. Fair enough. I am. You're right. I apologize. I was implying a political view.
- [11:10]
C
That's just the point.
- [11:12]
B
You're right. You're right. Absolutely.
- [11:15]
D
I think.
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B
Yeah.
- [11:16]
D
I think one thing we have to point out that we're not talking about is. Yeah, of course. I mean, I'm also worried about, about the, the market heading into September. It's interesting that Bitcoin's making a move before that, you know, and isn't that the way it's done it recently where it's the, the head of the, the tip of the wrist spear and it makes it move its move first and then kind of settles in and the stock market does its thing and other assets do their things and, and follow it. But I think the gold move and the silver move is interesting because the gold you would normally think, yeah, it, it's pointing to uncertainty in the markets. It's pointing to uncertainty across the world. There's a few things going on that chart you brought up, Scott, of, of foreigners, foreign central banks buying gold, you know, more than they're buying Treasuries. It would make you ask the question, well, who's buying Treasuries? You know, and one of the things is, one of the things is we're, you know, the amount of Treasuries that we're issuing hasn't gone down. It's just the, the, the, the, the end of the curve that foreign central banks would buy to hold is going down, you know, because we're not issuing as many longer dated securities. We're not issuing the 7 year 10 year notes as much the 20 years a throwaway. I'm not sure why we even have that but, or the 30 year. So then you, you know, and then, so that's one thing you wonder, well then who's buying when you look at the auctions, who's buying all the, you see the foreigners, you see the, you know, when you, when you look at the auctions. But that's most, that's coming out of Cayman Islands. And for the listeners that means this hedge funds, hedge funds are buying the Treasuries. You know, hedge funds are buying the, the, the notes, they're buying the bills, those are the ones who are buying it. So, and that's where you see those numbers. And, and I, I just saw a chart this weekend show that the Caymans, they're the largest foreign buyer of Treasuries in the world. And so that's hedge funds. And then on top of that you wonder, is gold rising because of uncertainty? Well, it's rising here because of the realization that we are devaluing our currency a lot faster than we've admitted to over the last 25 years. And so the last five years we've admitted to, we've admitted to devaluing the currency 25%. That's just crazy.
- [13:58]
B
Right?
- [13:58]
D
So of course foreign central banks are going to buy gold. That just, that, that makes sense. That's number one. Number two, you think is gold being bought because of uncertainty, because we have warships moving around the world, because we, we have uncertainty around tariffs, because we have uncertainty around tariff wars. Is that, you know, so we've got money wars, we've got physical wars going on. Is that part of it? Well, yeah, some people will buy gold because of that. I think in this instance, some people buy gold because of what Mike pointed out right at the beginning of the show is that there's uncertainty around the markets heading into September. And then finally, the one thing we haven't talked about is people buy gold before the Fed starts cutting rates. And the Fed is almost certainly going to cut rates 25 to 75 basis points in the next three months. So we have to recognize that, and that's part of the move in gold here, is that people are gearing up for that reality. And most of the time they gear up for that reality. Why would they do that? Because the Fed is always late. The Fed is always late. The Fed is always late. The Fed is always late. And they, that means the Fed is going to cut when it's too late. And so they're, they're going to cut and the market's going to be going down and people are going to be pouring into gold. So that could also be the anticipation of bitcoin going down, gold going up at the same time tells me that you have investors anticipating a tough September and that's kind of where I'm coming out on it.
- [15:23]
A
So what's interesting to me really quickly, Dave, is that this really makes the case for stablecoins so clear. That chart to me just screams digital crypto dollars, as Mike would like to say. Because I think right now with the pace of growth of stablecoins and the amount that we're seeing launch, they could be a top three buyer on any given year to year basis of Treasuries.
- [15:47]
B
I don't think they'll be.
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D
Tether is already, Tether's already a top 10 buyer.
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A
Yeah, I think last year. So let's imagine we get Citibank coin and you know, PNC bank coin or in Western Union coin. On top of the growth of tether inevitably growing, the United States.
- [16:04]
D
Western Union coin will take 25 for the, the fee for you to buy.
- [16:08]
A
Yeah, I just, you know, imagine if you didn't have the stable coins moving forward, that, that blue line on that chart is going to start to look much more aggressive on the way down. That's right, because the foreign governments are selling them, not buying them. Go ahead, Dave.
- [16:21]
B
Yeah, I mean we're letting them roll off the book. I wasn't going to go to stable yet, but I think let's, let's, let's go there.
- [16:27]
A
Say what you say.
- [16:29]
B
Well, I mean what I was going to talk about was the, you know, the, the, the, the, this Fed governor who thinks she, she's all powerful. I mean the, the. If you were scripting a way to, to, to get political support for auditing the Fed and ultimately re creating real accountability, this woman is literally the poster child. I mean she is direct from central casting of someone who is going to ultimately mean that the notion of a completely private Fed accountable to no one, which has been draped in this ve political independence, which is complete, has been complete and basically since Volker, is absurd. And it's going to happen. I mean, you don't have to be a political prognosticator to understand that the American people, when you mention to a person, to a normal human being, a voter, that the Federal Reserve is neither federal nor has any reserves, they think you're nuts. As soon as you say it, they like, well, why the hell are they the most powerful people controlling the economy? Watch this space. They are going to force the people, the, the Rand Paul wing, the Libertarian wing of the Republican Party are going to force the Democrats to have to defend this. Ro Khanna is in a safe district, but he looks like a idiot when he talks about the Fed because he tries to say, well, this political, there's, it's just, it just doesn't exist. I mean this, this great video that was made by AI which talks about the history of the Fed being basically, you know, engineered by JP Morgan. Which is by the way, is true, is, is very important, you know, having human beings controlling the single most important price on the planet, which, the price of money in the world's biggest economy is going to be under attack. And that is one of the reasons that gold is sniffing this stuff out. You, you talk about Trump, that's a big one now. Yeah, he's the agent provocateur in this case. Absolutely. But the truth is when James says the Fed is always, wait, the Fed is always late. They are. When Lawrence says that they are fooked because he doesn't want to get his account ban banned again, you know, from Twitter, they're all right. I mean you know we, we've laughed about the fact that they have 20, 000 people and 900 PhDs and they can't do a pro and they can't get a forecast right and haven't for 20 years. I mean they make the local weather girl look like a friggin genius when it comes to, when it comes to predictions. And yet we, we think of this as this almighty all powerful person. Now look, I personally said I think Powell's doing a pretty good job, you know, as recently as a year ago or six months ago. And I think he did in a very difficult situation. But the truth is we know these facts. Fact number one, there's a bazooka our howitzer that says if banks are going to go, they're going to print. We know that they're so they're a backstop on the banks. We know. Why do we have a need of backstop on the banks? Because we have fractional reserve banking which is a system that was absolutely essential from the time of the Medicis to now in order to be able to have local lending work. Because we didn't have perfect information. There was isolated information and capital flows were expensive. Well guess what, with the Internet capital flows are now completely mobile and information can move at the speed of light around the world. So you have to ask yourself the question, why are we propping up a system that pays bankers an extraordinary amount? Honestly, and this is going to piss off a lot of people, but I don't care because I'm in a ranting mood this morning. If the banking system was controlled by the Jews, we would start to see a repeat, an even bigger increase in anti Semitism. Because if you look at what caused this anti Semitism throughout Europe and I went through a history tour of this for the last week and I'll talk about this with anything. There were two major causes. Major cause number one, banking was considered a low class occupation. And so the Jews were, were kind of pushed. Okay, you guys could do this. You couldn't, couldn't own anything. You couldn't, you couldn't. They were basically pushing the stuff where they had to be mercantilists but they couldn't own anything. Well that makes, so you adapt. The second thing which just is historical curiosity is the Jewish culture involved lots and lots of washing of hands and so they didn't die as much in the plague and so they were called demonic and devils and that, that continues to this day. So you learn these two things and you understand where anti Semitism comes from. But if you think people hate the banks now, I mean, look at the, the greed. Look at, at what goes on in the banking system. Why do we have this printing? Why is it. Well, we have it because we've had 25 years of, of basically below market interest rates with, as, as I pointed out, five of those years we didn't, but 20 or 25 years of negative real interest rates. And so we've had financialization, and that's what gold is sniffing out. That's what Bitcoin will be sniffing out. It's already sniffed it out a lot, and that's a large part of it. Now, that was a big rant and I'm sorry for, you know, you know, for going off the rails on this, but I know you kind of like it sometimes, so. But yeah.
- [21:29]
C
Oh, those rants are great. Can I, Scott, can I just go first? Of all our banters, I think this is the best thing we can do for our audience, is point out some facts of history of the Fed. First, I suggest everybody take a look at the book the Courage to Act by Ben Bernanke. The purpose of the Fed is to be there when things get bad. And that book, I think, nailed it. I don't know how many times he mentioned the stock market in there, but it would really nailed it. Like, thank gosh, we had the right people at the right time to help solve a Great Depression, which we're heading up. So the Fed that they were supposed to do, then agree with you, James. They're always too late. We need a markets person on the Fed, someone who gets markets, like Scott Bessett. Why do you think he's pushing so hard for cuts? Because he sees what's coming. But another thing I want to point out in the history of the Fed that one of the most significant things that happened was when President Carter appointed Paul Volcker. Paul Volcker went into that meeting, he said, inflation's a problem. I'm going to raise rates. And Carter knew right away, if I point him, I might lose the election. He did it anyhow. Now that's a bit of a profile in courage. Carter knew what would happen, and this happened again. Now we just had this big pump in inflation. It helped get rid of Biden and brought Trump back in. So I don't. I just be careful about the politicization of the Fed. So key question I want to ask you, Dave, after I'm done with my slight little rant, is you suggest a better way, a better way to do it, because right now this is really Good to have this point counterpoint every single economist on the planet agree we do need separation from those who set monetary policy and the politicians because politicians will do what Trump. Trump's just so blatantly obvious. It's awesome. I love that. Because how is history going to judge this if he does get his way? So the key thing I want to point out, let's tilt it back over to markets a little bit and then I'll let you go into that. The key things I'm worried about is there's major cracks in the MRI. First of all, MicroStrategy, leader of everything, has broken below its 200 day moving average. Copper has collapsed from its high. What I saw in copper this last few months is exactly what I saw in crude oil in 2008. And I remember so I got some of that trade right. I was early, I was wrong for a while. But by that end of the year, man, there's some really good P's in my profits just because I was trying to make up. So copy copper. If it breaks down, the whole system starting to break down. And I like to put those together and I love when people push back on it because they have an exact same kind of pattern like bitcoin is. Everybody sees the trend going, going up. Everybody's bullish. The copper took out, it took, it dropped 22% in an hour. I mean it's ran through stocks. This is what markets do sometimes. This is one of the most liquid commodities on the planet. So this is why I see things tilting and that's why I'm really worried as we walk into these next few months. But just remember, think about anybody complains about the Fed, it's like, give me a better solution.
- [24:04]
D
There's. Okay, there's, there's a, one thing I want to unpack there and then Dave, you can respond to the rest of it is microstrategy is a specific event and that event is that Michael Saylor has, has moved the goal posts on investors on where he'll tap the atmosphere to sell stock to buy bitcoin. And he originally said he wouldn't do it below two and a half and now he's doing it and so, and he's doing it at one and a half, 1.6. And so there's a lot of frustration from investors around that. They're, they're really frustrated and they're wondering if they can trust him because, and you can see it online and there's a lot of infighting going on around microstrategy space specifically around that issue now, not getting into whether it's right or wrong or, you know, I mean, quite honestly, look, we, I still own micro strategy and we own it in the fund. And long term, I think it is a, a, you know, one of the, we will be one of the strongest, if not the strongest bitcoin treasury companies out there. However, short term, people are wondering how much Runway he's got because of the, the issuance of, of the preferreds and how much can he tap the market? How much of the capital market is going to be open to him and is he worrying that they're not going to be open to him? Is he, is he anticipating that? So he's issuing more stock, diluting the stock at 1.6m NAV instead of 2.5.
- [25:45]
A
James? Yeah, what's interesting to me on that, and Dave's pointed this out quite a few times, obviously that the key to microstrategy success or the fuel is volatility, obviously.
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B
Right.
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A
So you know that in these very boring phases, consolidation that can become problematic. But also listening to you, like price isn't even really down. I mean we're down 12 or 13% from the all time high. Shouldn't they have anticipated when creating these new products and releasing these new things that even a period of sideways could start to be problematic? Because what happens if bitcoin actually drops? If, if the market's actually already concerned about boring for three or four months?
- [26:25]
D
It's only, it's only problematic if he still needs to be buying bitcoin. I mean, quite honestly, look, there's a, there's a lot of different ways you can play this. I'm not going to second guess Michael Saylor. He's made tens of billions of dollars on, on this strategy, with strategy, you know, so however the, the question is, does he really need to be tapping the ATM here to be buying bitcoin here? Does he have to keep buying bitcoin every single day? That's the question. And so that's what's frustrating investors. That's what you're seeing on X, you know, on Twitter. That's what, that's what they're wanting. But the bigger question around that, to Mike's point, this is where I think Mike is hitting on the right point is now you've got, this is one, this has started the conversation of what's the M Nav that all these treasuries should be trading 4, 5, 6 or should it be 1 and a half to 2 and a half. And I've Been saying for a very long time it should, they're gonna, they're gonna be gravitating down to 1 and a half, 2 and a half level over the course of time. Now that doesn't mean it's, that's a bad thing. It's, it's just reality. You can still make money in bitcoin in these treas with bitcoin going up, even if their M Nav is, is contracting.
- [27:47]
A
So shouldn't you just be buying bitcoin and shorting any treasury company that has a premium to nav over two?
- [27:53]
D
Well, I mean that is a strategy to, to play. The problem is that these to, to get into and this is a good question, this is a question I get on Twitter a lot is like why aren't you just, why don't you just borrow and sell and short these things? Well, the bar, the cost to borrow these things is astronomical. I mean astronomical. Which is another reason that the M Nav just stays very high because you can't find shares to actually short. And if you are finding shares, some of them are over 100% premium a year, 200% to just borrow the stock.
- [28:26]
B
So it's important to dig into why because the why there matters a lot. Boy, there's, there's like three different threads I could pull on. You know, as far as the Federal Reserve, the answer is nobody. The market should be setting the price of money and we should have a sound money policy. And I think the great lie, the biggest lie that has been told to economists for the last 50 years is that inflation is needed in order to have productivity and advancing population. And so a 2% or whatever inflation target is good because otherwise we'll get a deflationary collapse because of technology. I think that is the biggest single lie that's been told. It is worth getting into.
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D
Insidious lie.
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B
Honestly, I think the best way to do that. Scott. So when we start doing shows, because you know we're going to do my own show, Mike and I should do a long form show where we literally debate these particular structural issues. But that's not what people want to hear about today. So let's, let's table that for a second. But I do think it's a really important topic and I totally agree with that. Mike's exposition of this is really meaningful. So let's, let's, let's stop that. But the thread I want to pull on that James just mentioned in terms of microstrategy and M Navs is fascinating. Look at banks by the Way the, the right range is 0.7 point is 0.75 to 2 is probably the range of M nevs. The really best banks, the ones that can generate revenues in excess of just holding books voc value and being in line with the market can get towards two the ones and sometimes over it if they have really explosive new businesses. But the average crappy bank often goes below book value. Happens all the time.
- [30:04]
D
So this, so hold that for just a second. This is why we've been saying on our, on our partner calls that we're looking at JP Morgan as our target M Nav on, you know, with their book value for the long term. M Nav for microstrategy because of what we believe they'll be able to do with their book of Bitcoin. And that's a 1.5. That's a 1.5 book value for. And that, and that makes sense to me. You know, that's long term, you know, I don't know when it settles there and, and if it makes sense,125 to150,000 microstrategies M nav is not staying at 1.5. It's going to go up, you know, in my opinion and it's going to spike up. And so that's just reality. But okay. Because we're in a sideways grind, like you pointed out, Scott. It's, it's, it's getting, it's just getting a little bit tedious for people. But go ahead, Dave.
- [30:58]
B
Okay, so two, so let me pull on one thread and then I have a screen to share. So the, the pull on one thread is when you talk about hard to borrow. When Bitcoin became incredibly hard to borrow and people were paying, not hard to borrow, but expensive to borrow. So when going long on the preferreds, on the perpetual swaps, excuse me, or futures markets become extremely expensive, to me that's an extraordinarily good top signal. It talks about euphoria, et cetera, et cetera. It's exactly. It still is, by the way. We're nowhere close to that. We haven't had that at all during either the eight months that went back over a year ago or the last four months. We just haven't had any signs of derivative LED buying that bitcoin. But Bitcoin is a free market for borrows. Most of these treasury companies are what we call specials. They are companies where the float is held by the owners of the company. And the owners of the company are smart enough to say, well screw this, I'm not going to let these be available for lending. And so they hold it out. There's no Bitcoin. You know, Bitcoin doesn't work that way. I mean those rates are economically set. They are, they are what people call paper Bitcoin rates. But it's the exact opposite effect. In this particular case they're market rates whereas the rates for specials. And this is not just in Bitcoin treasury. This is. If you look through all the hard to borrow lists. There have been situations I can remember when we were at 2 Sigma there was a natural gas ETP exchange traded product that was run by Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse refused to let it be borrowed. And so effectively this ETP went to an M nav on natural gas of four and a half. And of course every market maker was shorted and we couldn't borrow it. And so therefore you got bought in and you just had to play it know very well that you couldn't really be short this thing. Eventually it collapsed. Collapsed. But the fact is is that these things can continue for a long time.
- [32:48]
D
Just, just for the listeners what that means is that if someone wants to sell their stock and, and the, and their prime broker has lent it out that they want to sell it, that means that they're going to have to go get it. That means that they're going to call you if you're a short seller and you borrowed it and you have to give it back to them and you have to buy it at the market to get it back. And that's being called, that's called getting bought in.
- [33:12]
B
That's right, that's.
- [33:13]
D
And that's where your face gets ripped off.
- [33:15]
B
Right. So there's, there's a lot of. That was that thread. But, but you mentioned MicroStrategy so Scott, can you pull up the screen that I shared?
- [33:21]
A
Yeah.
- [33:22]
B
Get it right here. So this is the, the 30 and 60 day Bitcoin volatility over the last year. If you want to understand why MicroStrategy stock, what it's done you. I, I don't have the ability to overlay this with MicroStrategy stock but I think you'll notice that those spikes are exactly where the stock did well and that's because that's in those spikes. They were able to make those great sales of STRK and all the other stuff. But when it's down at these levels which are at the low over the last year and you can go back to forever. I can do a larger chart if I wanted to let's go back, let's go do this. So this is one year. You do five years. So yeah, there have been some periods in 23 when you know, post, you know, whatever where you got a little bit lower. But the 60 day, we're pretty close to the bottom over the last, last five years. And you could chart this and, and look at the scale here. You know, we're, we're at, at 1.29. The, the peak that we've had recently. Even in the, the best bull market this year, the best of it was 2.25. I mean you can go back five years and Mike always likes to do this. And we were at 5.18. I mean, you know the, it's, it's dramatically lower. So when you talk about a Vix of 16 to 20 on the CME, I mean we don't have that many periods of Vix at 100 and Vix is at a hundred. You should be backing up the truck to buy. Right. Because generally the markets have collapsed. Right. So we're at those levels in, in roughly speaking, in, in an inverse sense. So it's important to understand that. So if you're Michael Saylor and he's a smart dude, he says, look, volatility is really low. I'm not gonna be able to sell anything else. I want to continue to add to my pile. Yeah, I'll get some pissed off investors. But Remember, he owns 10 of the stock. The likelihood of a human being taking doing, you know, if he thought it was a bad idea for his stock, then he wouldn't be doing it. He's doing everything. It's a good idea and he doesn't care what people yell or scream about. He doesn't care about the short term movements of the stock. He cares what where the stock's going to be in 10 years because he doesn't need the money right now. He cares about his legacy. Now is he making too big of a bet? Maybe, maybe it happens. I mean we've seen lots of people like Icarus fly too close to the sun. Is he doing that? I don't think so. But that, that's what you're basically arguing if you want to be short this thing long term, if you believe that it's a reasonable way to play a evolving bitcoin ecosystem. On the other hand, then it's, then it makes sense. So you know, I, I see the views on this. Like I'll call out Dr. Donnish who thinks MSCR, he made a post. But if you're long MSTR. It's an IQ test and if you're long it you failed. It's like, okay, I don't know who, which between he and I whose IQ is higher. I'm guessing it's in, it's within punching distance of each other. He's a smart guy. But the truth is it's not. If you buy it at an M nav of two and a half to three with the, and then sell it when the M nav goes down from to 1.6 or 1.5. Yeah, then you're an idiot. But if it's a long term hold as part of your portfolio because you think it makes sense for a bunch of reasons. Particularly if you bought it from lower levels and don't want to take tax hits. Not an IQ test, but that's what's going on. You know, it's really simple when you look at this. If Bitcoin volatility going to return, of course it's going to return. It's going to revert to the mean and you'll end up at a volatility in the twos and that will, will allow them to do things that will, will effectively goose their M net. And that's what, that's James's point. Does that make sense? Yeah. Okay.
- [36:50]
D
Yeah, that's exactly right.
- [36:53]
A
Should we talk about. We had two more, two, two topics I wanted to touch on. James, you can finish that if you want.
- [36:58]
D
No, I mean that's, that's the, that was the point though is that, you know, we're gonna, we're gonna see some shakeout here. I don't think that it's over. I think the capital markets are still available for these companies and it's going to continue and it's going to continue for the, the top companies for a long time. It's just, it's going to consolidate in my opinion.
- [37:20]
B
Okay, so you had another topic, Scott?
- [37:23]
A
Well, I want to talk about Venezuela.
- [37:26]
B
Okay.
- [37:27]
A
Because, just touch on it because it seems relatively important that we've sent three warships off the coast and we have a, we have a congressman who's basically bull posting the idea that we're about to go to war. Say that thanks President Trump, that Maduro, head of the criminal cartel has a $50 million bounty and then saying he's about to get annihilated. So listen, I'm not saying that this guy necessarily does, but this is the United States government sending three warships to the coast of a foreign country. I believe 4,000 US soldiers and others in support and Maduro saying they're coming to get me for a regime change, which is kind of an American thing to do especially.
- [38:05]
D
We usually do it through the CIA though.
- [38:07]
A
Yeah, we usually do.
- [38:08]
B
I want to make two points first, I, I absolutely 100 think that pretty much every single time we attempt regime change it screws us. It's a terrible idea. So I am not suggesting it. Okay, let's get that out of the way. But Mike's thesis on oil is very much a play here. Venezuela is one of the richest countries in the world. Venezuelan citizens used to be in the top five richest overall per capita gdp. Venezuela since Chavez and Maduro have implemented the same policies that Zoran Mandami wants to put in New York and Bernie Sanders wants to be national with AOC has gone to now the poorest into the bottom 10% of per capita GDP. Despite all these riches, there is a very big tail risk to oil. If Venezuela ever were to go back to being capitalist where money flows could be understood and you can increase their, their oil production back to where a capitalist led system that is a huge supply of oil that comes onto the market and it makes, you know, it is not a good thing for the price of oil. We'll just leave it at that. And if you think that, that this doesn't have anything to do with Trump trying to put pressure on Putin, then you're not paying attention. People, follow the freaking money. What is the single best lever we can put on Putin? It's to decrease the price of oil. What's the best way to do it? Find new supply and get it online. Now I know people aren't going to connect the dots on this. Even Simon Dixon with his wacko conspiracy theories won't connect the dots on this. But this, you don't have to look very far to understand. U. S Foreign policy for decades has been about keeping the price of oil low. Whether they succeed or not is a matter of question. Whether this will work or not, I don't know. But if you think that this isn't part of it, you're not paying attention. The government wants the price of oil to come down. Venezuela has absolute shit, tons of supply and are really shitty at pulling it out. You know, the whole court. We could also talk about the court case and Mike, you remember the court case with Chevron, right? I mean this is a big deal, but it's not going to be a big deal in the short run. Just watch this space. In six months we'll talk about it.
- [40:22]
A
Perfect. Mike, any thoughts?
- [40:24]
D
James, I guess No, I was going to hit on the same. I was going to hit on the same theory about oil too. Now what the ultimate outcome is, it's hard to tell. But I mean Venezuela's obviously has. Is one of the largest suppliers of oil in the world.
- [40:39]
A
So.
- [40:41]
D
Yeah, it's not hard.
- [40:43]
C
I think you all nailed it.
- [40:44]
B
That's right.
- [40:45]
D
What's that?
- [40:48]
C
It's. It's the macro bigger picture. There's just so much more gushing supply on a global basis. Even China is coming up ways to bring on more supply just following some of the technology that US is using. And there's significant pressure on demand. BYDs proliferating around the world. That's just one automaker are just replacing things. Like I point out is my BYD baby is 11 years old and now that it's a Chevy Volt, that same car is three times as efficient and half the price. We have to have tariffs on it because the deflationary technology is so significant. But I'll stick with that call and I'll wear it if I'm wrong that I think oil is not going to bottom till around 40. That's what it's done for the last 20 years. It has to get below that. Cost of Production with the US is around $55 a barrel and that's the low for the year. So. So it's bounced for now. It's got to make it difficult. And it's never ended the year above 100. And that's why we're getting towards the end of the year now. So that's that gold bitcoin that. Sorry, that's. It's that gold. The crude oil ratio I find exceptionally scary. All the gold ratios are exceptionally scary. Highest ever versus commodities, certainly versus go crude oil. We've never ended the year. You go back 100 years and the end of the year high was 39. One that started in 1933. Didn't matter as much then and then in just a couple years ago. So it's significant to mention it because those are severe deflationary forces. A lot of it's a rapidly advancing technology. Jeff Booth is all over, but I want to tilt over to a little bit to that. I don't know what's going to happen Venezuela, but I think like they said, we might have a pop in krill, but anytime you get a pop, people just can't wait to sell forward. Particularly the largest producer in the planet, that's us and that exporter. But I want to tilt over to a little bit what's happening with severe deflationary forces in the world's second largest economy. Who first of all, I completely agree with you. The best way to hurt Putin is just crush the price of oil. I mean, I wrote that a few years ago. I think we're getting there. Trump's getting it and his constituents are like at the bond market. Love it. But here's the thing I'm really worried.
- [42:40]
D
About is just to put a little cherry on that. The best way to hurt Putin is not to freeze his assets and take his Treasuries. Like that's not the best way to hurt him.
- [42:51]
B
That was the stupid income.
- [42:53]
D
Yeah.
- [42:56]
B
Drill, baby, drill. Whether here or elsewhere.
- [42:58]
A
Yeah, finish that, Mike.
- [42:59]
B
Yep.
- [43:00]
C
Well, it's not just. It's, but it's everywhere. I mean it's just the average everywhere. It's more cost effective. It just, the technology is overwhelming. It's like we don't want to go back to, you know, life to rabbit ears in our TVs. We got a better technology now and that is electric cars. It's just, it's just a matter of time. But here's why I want to end with. And I don't know if you want to tilt already. I'm really concerned is we have 300 debt to GDP running in China based on some estimates. That's Goldman Sachs. We have their money supply around $45 trillion. That's double what's happened in US they're actually pumping this system. Despite that the 10 year note yield is about 1.77%, which I think where US is going to, and the latest PPI measure, which I don't know if we can really trust it or not. You can trust the bond math now a bond yield is minus 3.6%. So to me, this is what's happening when people are missing. What happens a lot of times is yes, we'll get massive printing, but it's when the US stock market right now, when it drops 20%, that's 40% of GDP. That's the most in 100 years. I mean it's right now about $70 trillion. And that's why this, we're being propped up on just a little bit of, you know, the, the cards are tilting here. That's why it's so important that cryptos have to, I'm just pointing out. Shoot.
- [44:20]
B
Yeah, you said two things which are really fascinating and I think needs to be pulled on. One, you talked about how the, the debt to GDP in China is exploding, yet the 10 year is crazy cheap. Meaning you know they don't have to pay much to borrow money. Who owns Chinese government bonds?
- [44:40]
C
Well, exactly. I hear it's mostly domestic and I've heard a lot of it is. James would probably know that. James, why don't you nail that one?
- [44:46]
B
That's right.
- [44:46]
D
No, it's mostly domestic. That's right.
- [44:48]
B
And why did. Why would people be dumb enough to continue to buy them? It's a short answer because you're.
- [44:55]
C
Put it this way, you're running a company and we know what's happening. So our whole livelihood for the last 30 years has been exporting, invest, you know, U.S. corporate profit. Green said, sure, we'll export the U.S. these corporate profits, they know they can make profits. They import our cheap stuff. They just shut that up. And then the rest of the world's pushing back to this deflation. To me, this is a global depression. Just getting started in the next few months might signal it. Unfortunately, crypto should leave the whole thing. If cryptos drop, everything falls with it. And the number one hottest crypto on the planet, as I mentioned, is leverage Bitcoin microstrategy.
- [45:28]
B
Where is it? How is it even remotely possible that China, which is already printing like crazy, has cheap costs of money? What would happen? And we know the answer to this. It's a totalitarian country. She doesn't let them. But if, if she let people let Chinese companies do. Put money into bitcoin or gold or. I mean, look, I remember buying Chinese.
- [45:51]
D
That was the answer to your question. Why is. Because they have to.
- [45:54]
B
They have to. And so, but there's a limit to what they can buy. And there's only one way out. The one way out is export the like crap and push and push more and more money into the system. Keep blowing the bubble bigger and hope to grow your way out. And, and, and at some point it's going to fail. You're right. It can't. Has to because you're the first one to talk about this. Mike, you, I would give you props on this one. You say when an economy is controlled by one man, it ain't going to work. Right. It, it doesn't encourage entrepreneurship, doesn't encourage people want to get their money out. And so what happens when that money does come out? If it comes out, that's a very big deal. And, and you know, we're way, way away. But it's, it's really, there's crypto dollars there. It's really, it becomes harder and harder. The, the argument for bitcoin into the crazy sphere, you know, the bitcoin crazies, I call them, even though I might very well be there and wearing my orange shirt today, is, is that all of this ends up in bitcoin because governments can't control it. Now, I don't believe that that's completely true, but by any stretch of the imagination. But understand something, that one of the escape valves for all that money in China is ultimately going to be bitcoin. It's one of them. And that is. And so when you start, when you compare bitcoin as a, quote, risk asset tethered to earnings which are going to be under pressure for all the reasons that you mentioned, that's where it's a problem. And when you talk about all these cryptos. Yeah, there's a lot of cryptos that are, are there and, and there's, and those could suffer too. I mean, look, I haven't looked at bitcoin dominance. I'm just looking at bitcoin's price having not moved. And I'm looking at altcoins not named Solana and to some degree Ethereum, and they haven't had a very good week. Right. You know, come back and I see that. And so what you're seeing is a very large, I mean, look at XRP for example. Right. XRP was Bitcoin, you know, is still. I called it leverage beta on bitcoin. So it's underperformed, performed. It's basically been what it's been. And so is. So we're seeing some of that. But you know, you always use the word competitors too. I just think of. Bitcoin is very different than the rest of crypto in the same way. Gold stocks are very different than the rest of the S P. They're, they're both, they're all stocks. Right. It's, it's that. But, but your point about China and why it is, is because people are forced. In Japan, it was a little bit more subtle. People weren't forced, but that's all they knew. They had their postal savings accounts which owned JGBs and JGB yields are finally, as the economy is aging out, people are looking at this thing. What the hell am I doing with this? That's why JGBs and that's why Japan is around me. I haven't mentioned them. That's another huge issue in the global economy. I mean, when you look at, at, at Japanese bonds and you look at their yield curve, it's, it's definitely concerning. Right.
- [48:50]
C
The long run's getting pretty steep there.
- [48:54]
B
Yep.
- [48:57]
D
Up to 1.6%, which sounds like.
- [49:01]
B
Sounds a little. But where did it come.
- [49:03]
D
But remember, they were holding it at 0 to 25 basis points for years.
- [49:09]
B
Yeah.
- [49:10]
D
And it has blown out. They let it go and it's blown out. So.
- [49:15]
B
Yep. No, it's true. I mean, what's to stop it from doubling again to 3% and then what would that mean? It would be. There'd be some big implications there and we'd have to go through it. But, but those are the point. Those are the things that people are going to start worrying about. Yeah, you're right.
- [49:29]
D
I just think that that's by far the largest buyer of their own debt. So, you know, and that's. This goes back to Mike's point, you know, that he, that he brings up quite a bit. We're all turning Japanese and it's a little bit. And that's true. I mean, China's on that road.
- [49:48]
B
But the difference is you and I look at this as, as bullish for bitcoin. Forget the rest of crypto for a heartbeat. I do. And Mike looks at it as bearish for bitcoin because he looks at it as a risk asset. It's, it's that. But that's the knife edge here. Right? That's the, that's the actual. And by the way, Mike could end up being right in the end. I mean, I, you know, we, anyone who thinks that, that just because we have opinions means that know we're gonna bet our lives on it. I'm not betting my life on anything, but I do think that sound money will win in the end. Right. I do think that that is where we have to go back. Yeah, you're. You didn't turn off the mic, Mike, for a second.
- [50:23]
A
It says he's muted, but. Yeah. So listen, with a few minutes left, should we extend that conversation or. We've got. I've got two other things on the docket that we could talk about. We've got the launch of World Liberty.
- [50:34]
D
Go ahead, pull, Pull something out of the hat, Scott.
- [50:37]
A
World Liberty financial today, in theory. Or we could talk about the looming consumer debt crisis that you wrote so eloquently about, James.
- [50:45]
D
Well, thank you. Well, I mean, that, that go. That, that will tie in nicely to the rest of the conversation, which is exactly. You know, we're, we're playing with leverage and that's the fire that is going to burn us. And we've got to be, We've just got to realize that. And there's, I mean, I was writing about this. I just I noticed that the New York Fed put out their, their report and for the second quarter, of course, everything is lagging. Every single freaking, you know, indicator we get from, from the, the economy is lagging, but this one is giving you a pulse of what's going on right at the moment of, you know, when it's, at least when it's, it's measured. The problem is then it's put into report and reported. And now you're, now we're bumping up against the fourth quarter and we're looking at these numbers from the second quarter. So what has happened since then? Well, you know, at the end of the second quarter you had 18 trillion, $18.3 trillion of consumer debt. And okay, so that, that sounds like a big number. It's hard to even wrap your head around. And does it even matter? Because what really matters is are people in trouble on that debt? And the answer is increasingly yes. You know, and so you're getting default rates that are, that are bumping up against the 2008 levels. And so credit card defaults are up around 13%, you know, and I'm sorry, they're around 12%, which is, which is close to 13 of the great financial crisis. And that's as they're already not paying their student loans. So they've already, they've walked out on the student loans. They're expecting some sort of, some sort of relief there, which is not coming. And at the same time, you've got your auto loans are the, those default rates are at 5%, which is close to the, you know, the level they were in 2008 as well. So these are just things that you have to be paying attention to. And so because it's the canary in the coal mine and it's such an obvious thing and I don't know why regular investors don't look at this a little bit more closely. Probably because it's all lagging. But if the consumer's not doing well in an economy that's 70% consumer driven, that should tell you something. So just be aware of that. Which is why I think ultimately the Fed is going to say we got to start lowering here. Here, We've really got to start lowering here. The, the, yeah, the, the unemployment rate is not looking that bad, but it doesn't get adjusted, it doesn't get revised. The, the number, the, the employment numbers get revised, but they don't revise the number the unemployment rate. So let's see where that comes in. And you know, we've got the, the PMI comes out tomorrow, I think. Is that right, Mike? And then you still got another cpi, another pci. You know, you've got, or, yeah, PCE numbers, you've got, you've got, you've got some important numbers that are coming out. But the health of the economy is driven off of the health of the consumer. The health of the consumer is looking a little bit shaky. So just be aware. My thesis is that we're going to get, we're going to get liquidity before it gets out of hand. But that may not be the case. So just be aware of that, you know, and, and of course, Bitcoin would have a drawdown. If we have a whole market drawdown, everything will go down. It's, it's the core one trade go down. In the beginning it went down, it went down, you know, quickly on a drawdown. Like if you have a black swan, people don't know what's going on. They just, they just try to go get everything out of the market. So, right, they'll have to sell gold because they're gonna have, that's gonna be available for them to sell and they're gonna be, they're gonna have to sell it in order to meet margin calls.
- [54:44]
B
All those ETF buyers are, are going to say, okay, I need money.
- [54:54]
D
If it's a risk, it's, if it's a risk event that people are worried about, then they will pour into gold because on the other side of that trade, you know, and the other side of all of it, they're going to pour into things like bitcoin, Bitcoin, because they know that the money printing is coming.
- [55:10]
C
So let me piggyback on that. I had the honor of seeing and meeting Chris Waller on Thursday at the Economic Club of Miami. Got great, great, great press. Everybody kind of saw what he said. They, you know, he, he wants a 25 basis point cut in September. It's already at 88. That's going to happen. So I'm going to make a prediction, I think what's going to happen in fourth quarter as we enter this year. The Fed is behind the curve. I agree. The consumer is getting hammered. I was just waiting for you.
- [55:34]
D
Or they're comfortable at it all along. They're comfortable being behind the curve on, on this.
- [55:40]
C
So, so let's look at what they did when they hiked last year. Unemployment memory had shot up really quick from 3.4. We all agreed it was going to 6. It's been stuck at 4.2 forever now. The latest employment number supposed to go up to 4.3. But that 12 month volatility of unemployment right now is the lowest in 20 years. So it's stuck there the same time actually. So it hasn't moved.
- [56:02]
D
Spending Mike, that's the problem right there.
- [56:05]
B
I get it.
- [56:06]
C
I understand. I'm just pointing out that's what, that's what, that's. It is what it is, that's what it is. So the point is I want to make a prediction. I think the Fed, they're going to cut. But here's what's going to happen I think is risk assets are going to sense that they're behind and the consumer was still strong right now. But when risk assets go down in this environment, it brings down that the tide goes out. So I think the Fed's going to keep cutting. I think they'll accelerate cutting as risk assets go down. Which means the stock, stock market, cryptos and bitcoin. And the number one thing that's way overdue for a little bit of ketchup. If we agree, if gold's going to go down initially and it's because people hit stops, then the number one thing that'll pop up is T bond prices and bond down is, is T bond yields because that's a severe deflationary force. Now that's the thing that's going to see this happen in the next three months. I hope it doesn't happen. But I think that's still my base case. And that's why I think gold is front running. But what's the bottom line here is the Fed will be cutting. Chris Waller might be the next Fed governor. And the thing is this might be a series where they have to be cutting and I think it's going to last for a long time. We're just going to keep chasing it down because the number one we got to mention, we all mentioned the outfit in the room. The biggest elephant in the room for all risk assets on the Whole Planet is U.S. stock markets. Almost $70 trillion valuation.
- [57:20]
D
Yeah, well these are all trades though, we have to remember, you know, first of all, I think bitcoin's already, it's already sniffed out what the Fed's about to do. Okay. So that's why you've seen, you know, it's down three straight weeks here and it would went sideways for four weeks before that. So you know, it, the bitcoin has had a, it's, it's been in a malaise here, a summer malaise. Okay, so what's the trade stock market go like? Everything starts to collapse. Stock market goes down, Bitcoin goes down, gold goes down, Treasuries go up and then the flip side of that and the other side of this trade is Treasuries go way down, that then you've got Bitcoin and gold go way up and the stock market follows it. And that's the way that the trade's going to go because they're going to come in with the money printer and it's going to be a massive liquidity injection in my opinion because they just need it, they have to have it. You cannot have the stock market go down. You cannot go into recession and blow out our deficits from you know, 2 trillion to 4 trillion. You can't have it, which could easily happen. If we go in, if we have a, a real steep drawdown and we go into a strong recession or depression, you could easily see 4 trillion, 5 trillion dollar deficits and that they can't have. I mean it's just not, won't let it happen. And guess who else won't let it happen? Trump. He's going to do put pressure on every single angle he can in order to be sure that in these midterms they don't have a crash in the, in the market, in the economy because this is the, the next, the next year is it sets up for a flip in, in, in his, his power in, in D.C. and that is a problem for him.
- [59:13]
B
Yep.
- [59:15]
A
We didn't get to talk about World Liberty Financial.
- [59:18]
B
Well, it's down a bunch.
- [59:20]
A
See what happens.
- [59:22]
B
I mean I think tomorrow will be, will be.
- [59:24]
A
It was supposed to have a circulating supply of 5 billion. All of a sudden it was 24 billion. So everybody dumped it.
- [59:30]
B
Well, I mean it is what it.
- [59:31]
A
Is, you know, contract things going on there. I guess they didn't differentiate between the, the, their treasury company Alt Fi Sigma and the other vesting contract and ended.
- [59:42]
B
Up I, I, I, I am a, a non stop broken record on the topic of tokens, which is there needs to be a disclosure regime. We need to know when you're buying something, what the, you're buying what the revenues are, what the ownership is, what is it? I don't know, I haven't looked. I'm not saying they haven't done it. I'm saying that once people start figuring it out then you can actually evaluate it. Until then it's so hard. I haven't done the research yet. I'm probably going to do that today just as a hobby because I'd like to understand it before we Talk about it tomorrow morning on crypto Town hall.
- [60:12]
A
Right. It's going to be important conversation over the next weeks. Based on the performance, I think that this is the like final barometer for the chances for altcoin market outside of anything listed publicly on the stock market.
- [60:25]
C
The question is if this thing can't.
- [60:28]
A
Go after what we saw with two Trump token when it promises actual utility, they have actual, like.
- [60:35]
B
But it. Maybe it is, maybe it just was. Was hyped up and it's not, you know, exceptionally well.
- [60:40]
A
Yeah.
- [60:40]
B
What's the value? Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's really a question of value. I mean, if you buy a token and you're buying a token because it's a meme, well, that's very different than buying a token because there's a revenue stream attached to it or an ownership attached to it. Right. I don't know the answer. Until you know that, you can't make those questions, you can't have that conversation. I'm not ready for that right now.
- [60:58]
A
We'll talk about World Liberty Financial tomorrow, the next and probably into perpetuity for the rest of our existence. Because, you know, what else is there to talk to besides President Trump and crypto? All right, guys, I'm gonna let you everyone go. Enjoy your Labor Day. James, thanks for waking up early. Dave, welcome home.
- [61:15]
C
Mike.
- [61:16]
A
Enjoy the rest of your vacation and we will see you guys. We will see you guys next week. Thank you everyone. Have a good one. Happy holiday.
- [61:25]
B
Let's do.