The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast: "Bitcoin FALLS As Gold & Silver RALLY! Are We On The Brink Of War?"

Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Mike McGlone, Dave, James
Date: September 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This Macro Monday episode, broadcast on Labor Day 2025, dives into the sharp divergence between Bitcoin's recent struggles and the explosive rallies in gold and silver—set against simmering geopolitical tensions (notably, the U.S. mobilizing warships near Venezuela). Scott Melker and his panel of financial experts explore what these market shifts signal, unpack the macroeconomic backdrop, debate Fed and stablecoin dynamics, and touch on pressing risks from China to consumer debt. The conversation is nuanced, rich in data, and seasoned with some impassioned rants, making it essential listening for anyone wanting to grasp the current macro-financial landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gold & Silver: The New Safe Havens?

[00:01 – 06:19]

• Gold's Surge: Gold hits an all-time high; silver rapidly approaches decade-long peaks.

  • Mike McGlone: "We're seeing this paradigm shift on a global scale where people are saying all right, we need something to diversify us and lock in some profits and certainly from equities." [03:40]

• Macro Backdrop: Economic uncertainty, rate cut expectations, and central banks shifting from Treasuries to gold for the first time since 1996.

  • New Trend: "Foreign central banks hold more gold than Treasuries... this opened my eyes." – Scott Melker [01:51]
  • Central banks buying ~1000 tons/year, 2-3x the previous decade's average.

• Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold as "risk-off," Bitcoin as "risk-on"—timing and volatility patterns strikingly inverse.

• September & October Warning: Elevated risk for sharp moves; historic crash months.

2. Silver’s Late Rally & Measuring Asset Returns

[06:19 – 10:45]

• Silver’s Chart: Silver crosses $40 for the first time since 2011—echoes gold pre-breakout.

  • Dave: "If you look at [silver] based in dollars, it wouldn’t look extended even slightly. In fact, it looks like it’s ready to start to follow gold as underpriced pointed out." [08:40]

• Asset Valuation Errors: Warning about thinking only in nominal terms—need to account for currency depreciation.

• Societal Vibes:

  • Observations from Europe: Inflation, governmental shifts, how sentiment and policy impact economies.
  • "The government’s going to put your hand in your pocket everywhere in Europe. But at least now, in this administration, they’re taking less." – Dave [07:41]

• Market Euphoria: A sense of overconfidence among retail investors—a warning signal reminiscent of past bubbles.

3. Safe Havens & the Financial System: Treasuries, Stablecoins, and the Fed

[10:45 – 21:29]

• Global Reserve Shift: Foreigners moving from long-term U.S. Treasuries to gold.

  • Hedge funds (via Cayman Islands) are main buyers at Treasury auctions now.
  • James: "The amount of Treasuries that we're issuing hasn't gone down... the end of the curve that foreign central banks would buy... is going down." [12:00]

• Currency Devaluation: The U.S. dollar's admitted devaluation by 25% in five years—one catalyst for central banks’ gold rush.

• Stablecoins as Market Players: Discussion on Tether and future "bank coins" potentially becoming top Treasury buyers.

  • Scott: "This really makes the case for stablecoins so clear... they could be a top three buyer on any given year." [15:23]

• Fed Critique and Rant:

  • Fed seen as unaccountable, late to economic realities, and ripe for reform by populist/Libertarian figures.
  • "The Federal Reserve is neither federal nor has any reserves, they think you're nuts..." – Dave [17:00]

• Banking System Fault Lines: Reference to history of anti-Semitism tied to misconceptions about banking and how current anger over bank “greed” could be misdirected.

4. Market Cracks and MicroStrategy Analysis

[21:29 – 37:20]

• Macro Cracks:

  • Copper's breakdown seen as a troubling early indicator—a “liquid commodity” showing market stress.
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR) drops below its 200DMA amid controversy over Michael Saylor moving the goalposts on equity issuance to buy Bitcoin.

• MicroStrategy’s Volatility Play:

  • The company thrives on Bitcoin price volatility—stagnant periods stress its strategy and investors.
  • High cost to short MSTR; dislocated M/NAV (market value to net asset value) compared to expectations.

  "If you're Michael Saylor and he's a smart dude, he says, look, volatility is really low. I'm not gonna be able to sell anything else. I want to continue to add to my pile. Yeah, I'll get some pissed off investors. But remember, he owns 10% of the stock." – Dave [33:20]

• Broader Implication: Market liquidity and capital markets still functioning for top companies, but patience wearing thin during “sideways grind.”

5. Venezuela and Geopolitical Risks

[37:20 – 43:00]

• U.S. Warships Near Venezuela: Potential for conflict raises risk premiums, but also could be part of U.S. efforts to pressure Russia by targeting oil prices.

  • "If you think this doesn’t have anything to do with Trump trying to put pressure on Putin, then you’re not paying attention. People, follow the freaking money." – Dave [39:10]

• Oil Market Dynamics:

  • Venezuela’s potential return to capitalist oil production could flood markets and depress prices.
  • Surging global supply, technological improvements, and deflationary forces (e.g., electric vehicles, China’s industrial strategy).

  "We have to have tariffs on [Chinese cars] because the deflationary technology is so significant… oil is not going to bottom till around 40." – Mike [41:00]

6. Debt, Deflation, and China’s Financial Hazards

[43:00 – 49:28]

• China’s Debt-to-GDP & Money Supply Explosion:

  • China pushing huge domestic debt, ultra-low bond yields with little foreign participation.
  • Totalitarian structure keeps system afloat for now, but risks of capital flight, economic dysfunction loom.

• Deflation Warning:

  • Global depression “just getting started,” with crypto potentially leading the way down in a full risk-off event.
  • "If cryptos drop, everything falls with it. And the number one hottest crypto on the planet... is leveraged Bitcoin—MicroStrategy." – Mike [45:10]

• Japan Parallels: All economies “turning Japanese”—massive self-financing of government debt, demographic saturation, yield curve pressures.

7. U.S. Consumer Debt Crisis

[50:37 – 57:20]

• Soaring Defaults:

  • Consumer debt hits $18.3 trillion, with credit card and auto loan defaults nearing 2008 levels.
  • James: "Credit card defaults are up around 12%, which is close to 13% of the great financial crisis. And that’s as they're already not paying their student loans." [50:45]

• Fed "Behind the Curve": Panel expects aggressive rate cuts (25–75bp) in Q4 as consumer weakness becomes undeniable.

  "The Fed is behind the curve. I agree. The consumer is getting hammered." – Mike [55:09] "When risk assets go down in this environment, it brings down... the tide goes out." – Mike [56:05]

• Liquidity Flood Expected: In a big drawdown, all assets (stocks, Bitcoin, gold) could drop together; only afterward would the Fed “flood the zone” for a massive rebound.

8. World Liberty Financial Token & Altcoins

[59:15 – End]

• Tokenomics Fumble:

  • World Liberty Financial launches; massive oversupply discovered, resulting in market dump.
  • Dave: "There needs to be a disclosure regime. We need to know when you're buying something, what you're buying, what the revenues are, what's the ownership..." [59:41]

• Altcoin Barometer: The failure or success of such tokens seen as a litmus test for the future of the altcoin market outside public equities.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mike McGlone on the Macro Warning:

  "I'm very concerned we're going to have a period that we're going to look back at... like we did 1999 and 2007. That's why to me these next three months are so significant." [04:36]

• Dave’s Sound Money Rant:

  "If you were scripting a way to get political support for auditing the Fed... this woman is literally the poster child." [16:27]

• On Regime Change & Oil:

  "Every single time we attempt regime change it screws us. It’s a terrible idea... What is the single best lever we can put on Putin? It’s to decrease the price of oil." – Dave [38:08]

• On Deflation & Technology:

  "Deflationary technology is so significant... oil is not going to bottom till around 40. That's what it's done for the last 20 years." – Mike [41:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:01 – 06:19 Gold & Silver's surge and global monetary shift
• 06:19 – 10:45 Silver's rally and lessons in asset valuation
• 10:45 – 21:29 Treasuries, stablecoins, and the Fed's accountability debate
• 21:29 – 37:20 Market cracks, MicroStrategy, and M/NAV dynamics
• 37:20 – 43:00 Venezuela, oil, and U.S. geopolitics
• 43:00 – 49:28 China’s debt risk and global deflation warning
• 50:37 – 57:20 U.S. consumer debt crisis and Fed response
• 59:15 – End World Liberty Financial token and the future of altcoins

Episode Tone & Takeaway

Packed with sharp macro analysis, colorful rants, in-the-moment financial insight, and solid market history, this panel didn’t shy away from controversy or hard truths. The mood oscillates between concern, factual deep-dives, and the banter of seasoned pros. As risk assets wobble and safe havens rally, listeners come away better prepared for whatever September and October may bring—from recession or war to a surprise market melt-up.

"We're just going to keep chasing it down because the number one, we got to mention, we all mentioned the outfit in the room. The biggest elephant in the room for all risk assets... is U.S. stock markets. Almost $70 trillion valuation." – Mike [56:05]

A must for anyone following macro, crypto, or global markets in fall 2025.