The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast

Host: Scott Melker

Episode: Bitcoin Falls Below $92K! Has The Bear Market Begun?

Date: November 17, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Scott Melker and a panel of crypto insiders, traders, and analysts debate the critical question: Has Bitcoin officially entered a bear market as it falls below $92,000? The conversation dives deep into market structure, liquidity, institutional trends, and the shift in sentiment across the industry. The group weighs technical signals, parallels with historical cycles, the role of OG sellers, and the complicated landscape for both altcoins and Bitcoin. Listeners get a nuanced, sometimes humorous, sometimes sobering look at what’s really driving the current market pain—and whether more is likely ahead.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin’s Current Market State: Bear, Bull, or Sideways?

• Scott Melker opens by questioning if Bitcoin has entered a true bear market or if recent price action is just deeper sideways movement. Noting Bitcoin is a few thousand dollars lower than a year ago, he sets the tone by suggesting 2025 saw little real bullish momentum.

  • "Effectively, at best I think you can say bitcoin's been in a sideways market." (00:45)

• OG Sellers Increasing Pressure: Multiple speakers highlight how longtime holders who have weathered years and major drawdowns before are now offloading significant amounts, surprising many market watchers.

  • "You're talking about guys that have largely held for a decade and a half who are just unloading billions at a time. Like, billions. It's pretty...shocking." – Scott (06:35)

2. The Impact of CBOE Bitcoin & Ethereum Futures

• News that CBOE continuous futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum go live Dec 15 prompts a discussion about whether this echoes the 2017 cycle top and what new products mean for price action and leverage in the US.

  • "The reason the original futures was the dead top was because before that, no one in the United States had the ability illegally to short the market at all...it was easy money for people." – Dave (02:22)

• The panel agrees that, while these products will push costs lower and trading more accessible, their direct impact on price is likely limited this time around.

3. Sentiment: Overwhelming Bearishness or Contrarian Signal?

• Bearish Twitter and Influencer Mood: Speakers note the dramatic bearish turn on social media, joking about a “grand conspiracy” to push sentiment down.

  • "It's like a grand conspiracy where all these KOLs are being paid to just bear post...the overwhelming prevailing negative sentiment...I think that itself is a signal." – Amateo (07:00)

• However, some point to positive sentiment on funding rates, meaning true capitulation hasn't hit yet—suggesting more volatility to come.

  • "Funding rates...are still very firmly positive. So we haven't gotten that sort of capitulation moment." – Kelly (09:58)

4. Technical Analysis: Key Levels, Moving Averages, and Market Structure

• Critical Technical Breaches: Discussion on the weekly 50 MA, historically a bullish line in the sand, having been decisively broken—many see this as a technical signal for bear conditions.

  • "It has never had candle closes below it in a bull market and has always happened as a bear market is starting. We very Squarely lost the 50mA around 102, 103,000 on this weekly close." – Scott (11:20)

• Others point to the lack of a true range-high to bounce from, increasing uncertainty and “chop.”

  • "We're kind of in a weird position right now where we don't really have a range high to bounce on because we've already fallen through it. So it's just the ultimate chop chopination marker right now." – Kelly (10:58)

5. Macro & Liquidity: The Driving Narrative

• Liquidity Crunch Explained: Robert delivers a detailed breakdown on banking reserves, repo markets, and how the US Treasury’s moves are draining cash from the system and tightening liquidity, directly impacting Bitcoin’s price.

  • "Liquidity is tightening in the US financial system...both unsecured and secured. That much is clear." – Robert (43:27)
  • "Bitcoin being the most sensitive to liquidity...nothing should surprise anybody when the Fed does finally step in...bitcoin will respond exactly the same way. On the upside." – Dave, paraphrasing Robert (44:42)

• Stimulus on the Horizon: Despite near-term tightening, multiple guests reference upcoming global monetary stimulus (Japan, China, US, Canada) as forming a “gift setup” for Bitcoin and risk assets once flows resume.

  • "It feels like we're in the biggest gift setup of our lives. If we look at the outline of what is to come versus what it feels like right now." – Kelly (12:39)

6. Institutional Interest and the Changing Crypto Culture

• Big Players Entering, OGs Exiting: Sasha notes that massive new institutional demand is being met by OGs taking profits as the culture of crypto shifts, hinting this is not purely technical selling.
  • "The unlock of people being able to work on those things at those banks and asset managers is unprecedented." – Sasha (16:03)

7. The Death (or Evolution) of “Cycles”

• Cycle Theory Critiqued: With 2025 showing no clear bull, several panelists argue the traditional four-year cycle is dead. They advocate for thinking in epochs, not cycles.
  • "Please stop saying cycles like the halving cycle matters anymore…there was no rally. There was nothing. Thesis invalidated." – Dave (17:42)

8. Alts, Tokenomics, and the Future of the “Alt Season”

• Participants strongly criticize current altcoin economics: unlimited supply, concentrated ownership, and lack of credible value, dismissing hopes for a new "alt season" without major structural change.

  • "Tokenomics is the ultimate killer of altcoins...we've just about minted too many tokens with very little value." – Gaurav (51:06)

• Market caps in projects like EOS and FTT are ridiculed; most alt projects seen as momentum trades with limited staying power.

  • "My two favorite coins until they were basically zero...the crypto market is sick and the altcoin market is problematic..." – Dave (53:24)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On OGs Selling:
  "You're talking about guys that have largely held for a decade and a half who are just unloading billions at a time. Like, billions."
  – Scott (06:35)

• On Social Media Bearishness:
  "It's like, it's almost like a grand conspiracy where all these KOLs are being paid to just bear post...I'm joking, of course."
  – Amateo (07:00)

• Bear Market Chop:
  "It's the ultimate chop chopination marker right now where you got to hold on to your butt."
  – Kelly (10:58)

• Cycle Theory Dismissed:
  "There was no rally. There was nothing. So at least that thesis is invalidated...just say years, epochs, whatever you want to call it."
  – Dave (17:42)

• Liquidity’s Role:
  "Liquidity is tightening in the US financial system...We know what the release valve is. It's not rate cuts by the way. It’s injection of liquidity."
  – Robert (43:27)

• Altcoin Skepticism:
  "Tokenomics is the ultimate killer of altcoins...There would never probably be a massive alt run or alt rally that we have seen in the 18s or the 2020s of crypto."
  – Gaurav (51:06)

• Humor Amid the Pain:
  "Are you getting seven wet diapers a day? ... That’s what I say Bitcoin’s upside is."
  – Mark (22:19)

• Trading Advice:
  "If you're not levered, then you sleep like a baby. If you are levered, then you’re like 'oh my god, am I getting liquidated?'"
  – Dave (66:00)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00–01:30 – Intro, framing: Is Bitcoin in a bear market?
• 02:12–05:00 – CBOE futures launch, history repeating? Shorting and 2017 parallels.
• 06:06–07:00 – OGs selling, surprising magnitude.
• 09:58–12:39 – Technical analysis: 50 MA break, sideways action, no new cycle.
• 15:30–17:42 – End of cycle theory, call to rethink market narratives.
• 34:10–37:43 – Deep dive into liquidity, institutions, and retail confidence.
• 43:15–45:13 – Robert’s liquidity explainer: repo, reserves, and market stress.
• 51:06–56:00 – Alts and tokenomics discussion; why “alt season” might be dead.
• 66:00–67:10 – Closing thoughts: risk, leverage, and being “long-term bullish.”

Tone & Takeaways

The tone is sharp, irreverent, and at times self-deprecating, reflecting market exhaustion and frustration but also experienced perspective. This isn’t a table-pounding call for panic nor unfounded hope: The group acknowledges both real economic headwinds and the tendency for sentiment to gets its most dire near market bottoms. Ultimately, while consensus is that the immediate path is choppy and risk-laden—especially for altcoins—the major players remain long-term bullish on Bitcoin, especially if future liquidity returns as expected.