Transcript
A (0:01)
A strategic bitcoin reserve has backing from the United States military. According to Cynthia Lummis, the Circle IPO went absolutely nuts. It's even trading up massively again today. Pre market. Musk and Trump are fighting like school children in the public square. Uber wants to adopt stable coins. So much has happened this week. Good luck thing. We have NLW here to unpack it all for us on the Friday 5. Let's go.
B (0:24)
Let's do. Let's do.
A (0:39)
We're gonna absolutely get right to it today because we have a lot to talk about. Good morning, sir. How are you?
B (0:44)
How's it? Better. Better than a lot of folks out there right now. Things that. Things are great. I'm excited, excited to chat. It's. It's not a boring one this week, I'll tell you that.
A (0:54)
No, I want to start with Circle because holy wow, man. This thing was being offered on Robinhood and in pre IPO shares a day before at 27 to 29 bucks. Ended up closing the day yesterday after a huge dip, trading at 83, but it's trading at 96 basically right now, pre market. I guess it's fair to say that Circle had a successful IPO here and successful for no one more than Jeremy Allaire, who've had on the show quite a few times, who now is a casual billionaire, I think $1.7 billion after this IPO at current prices.
B (1:25)
But he has played the long game for sure. I mean, you. It's hard to remember for, for people who weren't around. Like, people did not think that he was making a good move when he shifted Circles focus to be entirely about stable coins back in, you know, 2018, 2019. I think Alex Thorne from Galaxy Digital even said, you know, he, he was recalling, when he was told about it, he was like, that's an insane idea what you're making in crazy mistake. And. And now here we are. I mean, look, I think Circle is. It turns out that the story that everyone was paying attention to wasn't the important story, right? So there was a little while where everyone was analyzing circles financials, right? It was how much rev share they're giving to Coinbase and how it compares to tether and yada, yada, yada, right? That was sort of layer one of analysis and that's when things didn't look like they were going to go that well. Right. That's when we started to have rumors of, you know, or reports of Ripple and Coinbase potentially exploring acquisitions and, you know, comparisons to the failed SPAC in 2021. Right. So that, that was sort of like one layer of analysis is Circle as a company, as it stands right now. Second layer of analysis which started to take over clearly was momentum and an open moment window for crypto IPOs in general. EToro obviously was the key catalyst in shifting this narrative. But it was, it was very clear that there was sort of was an IPO window open. I think it's got artificial pressure and compression right now because Mark, you know, no one has any belief or trust in how long there's going to be a good IPO window. And so there's a little bit of that energy. But neither like th those things do not like the shift between those two things does absolutely does not explain this. What's clear that what their road show bankers missed and that what the analysis missed is how much demand there was for exposure to this category that doesn't really have other good options. This is not even really a Circle story, except insofar as Circle has very adeptly and adroitly over the last five years positioned itself as the U.S. you know, private domestic stablecoin. This is stablecoin demand. Right. There's very clearly being expressed is a belief that stable coins are going to be key financial infrastructure, monetary policy infrastructure. And look, you know, someone had a great tweet, I'm apologies for forgetting who it was, but they were comparing market cap to volume processed and it was like, you know, PayPal is like a 70 billion dollar market cap at 1.5 trillion processed. Visa is 500 billion at 14 trillion processed and Circle was like 6 billion at 12 billion process. Right. It's just behind, you know, and so there's a disparity there and the market clearly is seeing that, you know, so I do not think, I guess is that TLDR here that this is just exuberance of an excited, you know, IPO window. I think that this is category bet, you know that this is, this is the equivalent in the stablecoin space of, of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF basically.
