Podcast Summary: "Bitcoin Gets Rejected At $112k! Will September Remain Bullish?"
The Wolf Of All Streets – Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Ishan by Donni (Scribe)
Date: September 4, 2025
Overview
In this episode, Scott Melker welcomes Ishan by Donni to break down the recent action in Bitcoin, focusing on its rejection at $112k, the myth of September seasonality, and the broader market landscape. The two discuss not only price action but the evolving ecosystem of digital asset treasuries, regulatory catalysts, whales’ behavior, and the next generation of crypto infrastructure—from altcoin "Treasury companies" to decentralized perps. The tone is candid, insightful, and often irreverent—perfect for traders and crypto industry followers.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Bitcoin's September Green Candle & Seasonality
[00:00-04:39]
- Scott Melker sets the stage with Bitcoin’s early September performance, defying "historically bearish" narratives and noting that both 2023 and 2024 saw positive months against the odds.
- “Bitcoin set to beat Red September dip for third straight year. It's literally September 4th. Sometimes I just don't know where these stories come from.” (A, 04:39)
- Seasonality skepticism: Both agree that narratives about monthly seasonality are often oversold, especially as new factors (like institutional bids) change market structure.
2. Ishan’s Market "Spidey Senses" & the FTX Short
[01:19-03:40]
- Ishan reminisces about his early public call to short FTX, driven by gut feel and data points like exec departures and over-ambition.
- “I've always been a big gut guy and I think gut is just kind of like a culmination of things that maybe you're not able to articulate.” (B, 02:19)
- The FTX saga becomes a lesson in reading market inefficiency and using both instinct and data.
3. Market Structure: Range-Bound Consolidation & “DAT” Inflows
[04:39-08:15]
- Consolidation is healthy: Ishan prefers range-bound action for stability, identifying 108k–115k as a good zone for traders to play sentiment swings.
- “When we get to 115 everyone will be like, oh, we're going to a million bucks. And then that's probably a good time to like, you know, take some exposure off.” (B, 05:58)
- Treasury companies (or DATs): Huge inflows continue, with a million BTC in corporate treasuries—the real number may be higher given lost coins.
- Ethereum’s rising role: Major ETH DAT inflows are imminent, with 15 new vehicles predicted next month, many aiming to raise significant capital.
4. Expansion of Treasury Exposure & Altcoin Treasuries
[08:15-11:37]
- Access barriers: For certain assets like BNB, U.S. investors can't get direct exposure, making BNB treasury companies attractive and reminiscent of pre-ETF MicroStrategy for bitcoin.
- Alts rotation: The days of "throw a dart and everything goes up" are waning, but skilled traders can still find pockets of outperformance in alts through new treasury/ETF mechanisms.
5. The Discount Conundrum for Treasury Companies
[11:37-14:34]
- Permanent discount: Scott and Ishan discuss the persistent NAV discount for bitcoin treasury companies, noting the inevitability unless mechanics change (referencing the GBTC example).
- “Most sophisticated traders are either going to A, just buy the underlying themselves or B, ... short the treasury company...and get bitcoin outperformance.” (B, 12:23)
- Ethereum is different: ETH treasuries can generate yield through staking and DeFi, possibly making them more attractive with 7-8% annual returns.
6. Regulatory Environment, Interest Rates & Risk-on Sentiment
[14:34-16:31]
- The elephant in the room: a potential Fed rate cut. Market is pricing in an 88% chance of a cut, which would signal a renewed risk-on environment.
- “Once you get a cut, regardless of the future expectations of cuts, I think the market sentiment changes ... you start to get to the banana zone that everyone's been waiting for.” (B, 15:38)
7. Altcoin Treasury Companies = "Hedge Funds" & the Kronos/World Liberty Play
[16:31-18:29]
- Scott is more bullish on altcoin treasuries as short-term alpha plays (“hedge funds” in disguise, using DeFi/NFT yields to outperform underlying assets).
- “If your goal is to beat an underlying asset ... that's a hell of a lot easier with an Ether or Solana than it is with a Bitcoin.” (A, 16:51)
- World Liberty Financial (Trump-backed): Both expect a strong fundamental performance thanks to regulatory arbitrage, institutional backing, and strong leadership.
- “There's no way the Trump family can Allow this thing not to work. They're so financially and name wise invested in this that it has to work.” (B, 21:14)
8. Whale Selling & Market Health
[21:44-23:28]
- A Twitter thread by Max Kaiser is cited to highlight that whales have been selling heavily, major BTC wallets at 7-year lows.
- “The distribution of tokens...once they're done selling. You can't imagine there's much pressure left.” (A, 22:34)
- Ishan: This redistribution is healthy, marking a generational handoff in bitcoin holdings.
9. The "HyperLiquid" Paradigm Shift—On-Chain v. CEXs
[23:28-29:27]
- Ishan: The future of liquidity is on-chain at HyperLiquid, where spot/perp arbitrage is maximally efficient—no more waiting for fund transfers between exchanges.
- “The thesis is the ARB loop is going to. Instead of what previously was, you're arbing against Binance ... now you're going to be arbing against Hyper Liquid.” (B, 26:28)
- Scott: Initially skeptical, he’s now convinced by HyperLiquid’s deep real liquidity, yield opportunities, and seamless internal capital routing.
10. Trump-Backed "American Bitcoin" Diamond Hands Launch
[29:27-30:23]
- The public listing of American Bitcoin (mining), backed by Trump, saw huge demand on launch, with circuit breaker trading halts.
- Ishan notes this serves U.S. investors, while World Liberty could offer Trump exposure for global investors.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
On Gut Instinct in Trading
“I've always been a big gut guy and I think gut is just kind of like a culmination of things that maybe you're not able to articulate.”
— Ishan [02:19]
On Bitcoin’s Seasonality Myths
“Bitcoin set to beat Red September dip for third straight year. It's literally September 4th. Sometimes I just don't know where these stories come from.”
— Scott [04:39]
On Alts Outperforming
“In 2021 there was always a look for where's the beta. I think a lot of the beta subsided just because there's so much in the market.”
— Ishan [09:15]
On NAV Discounts
“Most sophisticated traders are either going to A, just buy the underlying themselves or B, ... short the treasury company...and get bitcoin outperformance.” — Ishan [12:23]
On Rate Cuts & the "Banana Zone"
“I think we're right on the cusp of it, so I haven't been bullish in a minute. I'm pretty bullish right now.”
— Ishan [16:14]
On Trump-Backed World Liberty
“There's no way the Trump family can Allow this thing not to work. They're so financially and name wise invested in this that it has to work.”
— Ishan [21:14]
On HyperLiquid’s Importance
“The thesis is the ARB loop is going to...Instead of what previously was, you're arbing against Binance ... now you're going to be arbing against Hyper Liquid.”
— Ishan [26:28]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [00:00] – Bitcoin's September performance, seasonality, and intro
- [01:19] – Ishan’s FTX short story; lessons in market intuition
- [04:39] – Market consolidation, treasury inflows, and ETF impact
- [07:27] – ETH DATs, BNB and restricted asset exposure
- [08:42] – Altcoin treasuries and risk curve dynamics
- [11:37] – Persistent NAV discounts and the role of yield in ETH/alt treasuries
- [14:34] – Fed rate cut expectations and risk sentiment
- [16:31] – Altcoin treasuries as hedge funds, Kronos/World Liberty
- [21:44] – Whale selling, supply distribution health
- [23:28] – HyperLiquid, on-chain liquidity, the future of trading
- [29:27] – Trump-backed American Bitcoin public launch frenzy
- [30:23] – Episode wrap up
Conclusion
Melker and Ishan’s wide-ranging conversation skips surface-level news to focus on structural market shifts: big wallet transfers, the rise of institutional money, treasury company dynamics, and the future of decentralized trading. The duo blends skepticism, technical understanding, and humor, providing a bullish yet nuanced take on where the crypto markets—and their infrastructure—are heading this fall.