← The Wolf Of All Streets
Loading summary
Transcript77 lines
- [00:02]
Host
Bitcoin is headed to 200,000 to $315,000. And June will be explosive. Many of you pointing out that we can be a bit bipolar on this channel and that maybe on Monday we had more bearish targets when we were talking to Mike McGlone, but now we've got a different Mike and it's Mike Alfred. He's going to tell us why things are looking great for bitcoin. We're going to discuss that. Everything else market related and of course Chris Inks from Texas going to we're west Capital on the back half. Let's go, let's do, let's do. What is up everyone? Bitcoin to $315,000. Everybody loves a huge number. You may notice that for the first time in years I did not say say the same sentence right there at the beginning of the show that I always say I said I wasn't going to do it and do it. But you can still like and subscribe if you want. Gonna bring on Mike right now. Yeah, 88,000. You we, you and I just talked about before this that you listen to macro Monday for a bit. Clearly you don't think bitcoin's going to $10,000 anytime soon.
- [01:18]
Mike Alfred
No, it's going higher, not lower. But I totally understand McGlone's perspective. You know, he's a serious analyst. He's credentialed, he's very intelligent. It's really frustrating when you do a lot of work like that and then you see people that to you don't look very intelligent, look like just pure gamblers making more money than you do. And it's a common affliction in markets. You'll see people miss out on entire trends just because they're angry about the types of people who are making money on it. So I'm sure he's a great guy, clearly very, very smart. But he's got to stop worrying about what other people are doing with their money and just focus on the fundamentals.
- [01:59]
Host
So we've got our big huge target here. Where'd we get it? Of course this came from one of your amazing tweets. Bitcoin closed over 107000 for the first time in the history of the asset and protocol. So for those who missed it on Sunday actually had the highest weekly and daily close. That's great. But we're headed to 200 to 315 soon. So the only question you should be asking is do I have enough bitcoin? Interestingly, if you take a look at what options traders are doing, they're making the same bet and on June 27th strikes. So as wild and maybe hyperbolic and exaggerated as people might have thought your tweet, they never know if you're serious or sort of kidding. People are actually taking huge bets on a strike price of 300,000 for June 27th. If you. The options market.
- [02:41]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, I mean, that's too soon. But look, a lot of my tweets are hyperbolic, A lot of my tweets are, are fun. And look, I, I give this caveat every time. Like if you're using X as something other than entertainment, you're using it incorrectly. Right. If you're using it to like yolo your entire net worth based on what somebody says on X, like, again, you need to think a little bit harder. But my target from the cycle bottom was 315k. So when we were at 16 going to 20, I said I thought that 315 was a reasonable target for the cycle. And of course I've tweeted it repeatedly on and off for the last almost two and a half years now. And so we're just getting closer to where it looks more obvious that that's a potential level we could go to. I think like, when you look at you deconstruct this cycle fully relative to previous cycles, this looks like a entirely institutionally driven cycle. As many guest I'm sure pointed out on your show the past, like, there's no retail involvement whatsoever other than indirectly via the etf, but there's no like retail FOMO into bitcoin and crypto this cycle, it's almost all driven by institutions. And so the cycle buildup has been a little bit slower with long consolidation periods like last year between March and November where people basically got bored out of the market or whipsawed out by minor volatility between 50 and 70. Right. And then it broke out. I think we're about to do that again. We're about to break out of this consolidation pattern from, from January and that'll take us up to 130, 140, 150 somewhere in that range. And then we'll consolidate there for some period of time before we break out towards 180, 200. I do think we hit 200 this year. Like I, maybe I'm at 25, 30% statistically, but like, but like my gut says that, that it's coming and then if we hit 300, 315, I think that happens potentially Q1, Q2 of next year. I think we're looking at an elongated cycle. I mean this is something I've been talking about for a couple years now. You'll start hearing more commentary probably from others as we get closer to the end of the year. If we haven't already gone into a parabolic price discovery mode like we've seen in previous cycles, it'll be more obvious that perhaps we're not going to just make this huge run up top and then pull back. That we might actually just stretch the cycle out further. And there's no reason rooted in physics why the cycle has to magically turn over on a certain date. I think a lot of people think just because it's happened on similar time frames before that'll happen again. But you got to overlay the current liquidity cycle and we're going into a new liquidity boom right now with the DXY softening, with a lot of money printing needed to happen around the world just to hold up economies like Japan and China. And so I, I think we're in, we're positioned really well for, for the rest of the cycle now. I think we're mid cycle.
- [05:28]
Host
Yeah. It's interesting comment. I think that in the earlier days the animal spirits of the four year cycle made a lot of sense. It was a nascent asset. There weren't that many people participating. So there was a bit of the having actually mattering because that was actually quite a bit of a supply and just the belief obviously the self fulfilling prophecy of it. But I agree with you. I think at this point it's going to trade more like macro assets. I'm not saying it's going to follow them, but the stock market, NASDAQ doesn't have a predictable four year cycle where on a certain date it tops and then on a certain date it bottoms. I think that we get more traditional price action moving forward from Bitcoin doesn't mean not as much upside. I just don't see unless we have some major black Swans or something. 85 down, 10x up. 85 down, 10x up predictably every four years.
- [06:22]
Mike Alfred
Yeah. I mean if we do 10x from the bottom we should be at 160. Right. And then 80% down takes us quite a ways down I think from where most people would expect. I think it's more likely that the cycle top is between like 15 and 25x.
- [06:42]
Host
Yeah.
- [06:43]
Mike Alfred
Off the bottom with again 315 right there. Kind of in the middle of that, of that range. And then the, the drawdowns there might may not be one major Drawdown that's so obvious that everyone can take advantage of where we just draw down in a straight line for one year, which is historically what's happened. Right when you look back to like 2018 or 2022 is like exactly the same structure, almost exactly the same drawdown amount. It could be that we just see a couple of 30 to 50% drawdowns followed by pushes back towards all time highs or pushes to new all time highs where the whole cycle structure is actually broken completely because we make a new all time high before falling another 30 or 40%. And so I think people need to be prepared. I mean, the only strategy, like candidly that really works in bitcoin without fail is just a long term DCA strategy where you just buy it over and over and over and over again relentlessly, and you just hold it for as long as you can. Basically like set yourself up such that you can hold it forever. And if you do those two things, then you basically can't fail. I mean, I've told people before, like, the big chunk of the bitcoin that I hold was purchased between like December 2018 and like March of 2019. And I literally haven't touched it. It just sits there doing absolutely nothing. I don't lend it out, I don't try to generate additional yield on it, I don't trade it, I don't buy shitcoins to try to buy it back. Like to me, it's just, it's a legacy asset and you just, you just hold it and it just tends to go up over time. For periods of time, you're like, man, I could have made more money doing X, Y and Z. But when you look back 10 years later, it almost always has been a better decision to just buy and hold. So we're back there now. I mean, look how many guys got shaken out between 109 and 74. I saw so many tweets from even really smart people. They're in their 20s, some of them in their 30s, and it's like you guys have 20, 30, 40 years to invest and you're trying to trade a candle between 84 and 74. That's just not smart. Those people have less bitcoin now. Almost certainly anybody who's selling bitcoin every cycle, there's like literally no one who ends up ahead playing those games. The only people end up ahead are the people that look dumb. Buying, buying, buying, buying relentlessly when it's in a drawdown and then just hold it, sailor.
- [09:08]
Host
Buying the top every time, buying the top forever. Sort of the joke. So, listen, this actually leads me to a question we've been sort of pondering on this show for the last few days or weeks that I'm very interested for you. So the idea that we could have some sort of contagion that pops the next bubble. Right. Obviously we know that we had Luna and the CEFI collapses and all these things in the past. I have a bit of a concern. Here's one story, sort of related. Ramaswamy Strive I 75,000 Bitcoin and Mt. Gox claims amid Bitcoin treasury push Strive obviously one of the companies that's making a big push in this bitcoin treasury space. I am a huge fan of the idea of companies adding bitcoin to their Treasuries. I'm a bit concerned if we get 20, 30, 40 or 50 companies trying to raise convertible debt until taking on leverage to buy more bitcoin, and think that could be a catalyst for a larger drawdown than we would have had. I mean, does it. Does any of this concern you? Nakamoto 21 strategy. I think those are the kind of people we generally can trust to do this properly. But you're going to end up with a bunch of hedge funds at the top down this risk curve who are going to try this and then be forced sellers, in my opinion.
- [10:21]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, I mean, look, there's some truth to that. If everybody is using debt to pile on bitcoin, yeah, of course it's going to make the volatility potentially worse. But you also got to keep in mind there's a finite limit to the amount of capital that's available to do convertible notes. And you'll notice, like Meta Planet is being really cautious in particular about how they do that, and they're using other approaches to try to build their stack without using as much convertibles as some of the others are. So there's a limit. The market will only bear so much. So if there are a thousand companies trying to run a convertible note strategy, like the total aggregate amount of debt that will be priced is sort of limited unless it gets recycled from existing convertible notes that are successfully made.
- [11:08]
Host
If they just start to take. I mean, it doesn't mean someone will buy it, but if they just start to take more risk, offer more yield, whatever that is, like we saw with sort of CFI in the past cycle, oh, they're doing 9% yield. We will do 12% yield.
- [11:20]
Mike Alfred
Right.
- [11:20]
Host
Then going further down the risk curve to find a way to, you know, find that in the market that's, that's possible.
- [11:26]
Mike Alfred
But candidly like right now these companies are just front running what's inevitable that every corporate entity is going to be forced to do I think over the next five or 10 years. And so I think it's well supported by the fact that like 0% of the S&P. Right.1% of the S and P balance sheets are denominated in bitcoin and that number is going to go to 2 or 3 or 4%. And so that may happen at some point in the future where there's a retrenchment. But right now I think it's an asymmetric, it's pretty asymmetric bet to do anything you can to add bitcoin to your balance sheet knowing that you have like effectively a tsunami of capital behind you that that has to get out of the dollar and the euro and the yen. And that's part of why you're seeing such a big multiple on Meta Planet right now is because of all the financial distress in Japan. So there's these huge macro tailwinds for this type of strategy. And so yeah, I hear you. I wouldn't rule out a Treasury bitcoin treasury company driven cycle top and rollover and eventually pullback. Maybe that's what creates a 50% plus drawdown. It's possible but that would probably happen from much higher levels.
- [12:40]
Host
Yeah, to me it would be like we're at 180 bitcoin rolls over 20% because bitcoin rolled over 20% and then a bunch of these idiots are forced to sell because they managed it poorly and it sends it down another 20%. I don't think it's like the end of a cycle type thing. It just seems like it's going to get my spidey senses tingle that it's going to become irresponsible as who amongst.
- [13:04]
Mike Alfred
The number of firms that are on the field now, who amongst the microstrategies Meta planets. Straw. Right. Well but so then who, who's it going to be between here and 180 that doesn't exist yet that's going to show up and be that offsides. Like I just, it just looks to me like we would need significantly higher prices. And so that's the case. Like if we do see if you're right and the bitcoin treasury companies blow up, I think it's more likely to happen in a million or two.
- [13:32]
Host
That's fair because somewhere between yeah, they're gonna foam, they're not fomoing in now.
- [13:38]
Mike Alfred
No, those guys are going to come in when there's actual fomo. And what I, what I'm seeing in my travels and what I'm seeing in my analysis is there's none of the sentiment indicators, none of the FOMO indicators that you would have seen in previous cycles to tell you that you're getting into the late part of the cycle. The things that I'm seeing are still saying early to mid. And that sounds crazy because we're, you know, almost two and a half years in to the cycle. But there's no indicators of extreme sentiment. There's nothing happening on chain, right? There's the transaction cost spot driven. Like the derivatives markets aren't going crazy. Crypto beyond bitcoin isn't doing anything. The search traffic on Google is in the floor, right? Like you go talk to go stand in Midtown Manhattan or go stand on the Las Vegas Strip and ask a hundred people what they think the bitcoin price is. And like one person will be able to tell you what it is. Everyone else will be like, well, I don't know, last time I checked it was 24k or something, right? So we're in a very unusual environment because if you're paying close attention, there's people doing incredible things like Microstrategy and Meta Planet and just stacking bitcoin like crazy and doing stuff we've never seen before. But then you go talk to the average person on the street, they have no freaking idea that bitcoin's even over 100k. And so look, I hear you. I think we should always be looking for cycle top markers. We should always be looking for risk factors. But if there is a bitcoin treasury company crash, it'll probably happen between 500,000 and like 2 million, which is why I'm so bullish on this cycle, because there needs to be a lot more buildup of excess and speculation and FOMO before you're going to see any sort of crash. And that's the biggest criticism I have. Like when I hear, when I sit in spaces right now, crypto guys are like, oh, bitcoin's getting so hot. And I get it on a relative basis, feels like bitcoin's really hot because crypto's done absolutely nothing this cycle and people are frustrated by that. But bitcoin, when it does break out to new all time highs again, I'm pretty confident there will be a crypto cycle and the crypto kids will start to see their favorite meme coins going up again. And that's when you'll start to see some reason to be concerned. But Bitcoin at 100k or 110k, there's, there's zero signs of that. And so I'd be doing exactly what Jack Mallers and, and strive and those guys are doing right now. If I were in their position and I could issue corporate level securities in order to buy Bitcoin, I'd probably do the same thing.
- [15:57]
Host
Yeah. Dave Weisberger has pointed out a number of times, if you take a look at the perpetual swaps in the derivatives markets, it's like annualized 5% right now, interest on being long or short, when even in the early iterations of a real FOMO cycle, you're talking about 80, 90% with those perpetual swaps where the funding rates change every eight hours. So there's really just, as you said, traders are not aggressively trading it and there's really no fomo. It's just a lot of buying, you.
- [16:25]
Mike Alfred
Know, best, best setup I've seen best. One of the best setups I've seen because you rarely see an asset basically this close to price discovery, probably going into a multi month or even multi year type of run up entirely backed by like institutions that are long term in orientation and like almost no interest from the retail public. Right. So typically you'd have expected a lot of interest. I think a lot of us at 16k, 25k, 30k would have thought, oh, at 100k, retail won't be able to ignore Bitcoin and retail is sitting there ignoring bitcoin, defying all predictions from earlier in the cycle. So people forget that, like they just, they forget that that was the mood back in the spring of 2023. Like people were worried about a retrace to 20k when we were at 25k. That's what people were talking about. Like if you go back and like listened to a lot of the spaces at the time and a lot of podcasts at the time it was like, oh, the traders see a bearish divergence on the daily and on the weekly and we're at 25, we might go back to 20. And, and for the traders though, it.
- [17:31]
Host
Works for the traders.
- [17:32]
Mike Alfred
You know, the fundamental guys were like, hey, we're probably going to see some FOMO at 100K. That's what we were talking about at 20, 25K. And that's been wrong, I'll freely admit.
- [17:41]
Host
Yeah, yeah, I really thought that that big round number was going to send it, but I love that it didn't Right. Because that, that means that you have a lot more room to move. I want to ask then about miners because on spaces also on Monday I think I had Marshall Long who I'm sure you know, Ryan Condren was there, Gary Cardone and they were actually pointing out that they think miners and they are miners could be the publicly traded miners, I should say could be the bubble of this cycle because they're now taking on debt and following the same sort of path. And that actually all in the price of mining right now is because of hash rate flying is so high and so hard for them to make money. I have a feeling you might have an opinion on that.
- [18:21]
Mike Alfred
A. It's like the least levered the public industry's ever been, right. And so I, I get it. The non public guys love to throw eggs right at the public guys.
- [18:33]
Host
They're basically private miners and vice vice versa.
- [18:35]
Mike Alfred
Yeah, like the private miners are always jealous of the public miners because the public miners can access a ton of capital and they can't. And so I've heard this for years.
- [18:43]
Host
That was the argument was basically they're doing financial engineering at this point, using their stock and such to make money.
- [18:48]
Mike Alfred
If you look at it in the aggregate Scott, like this is the least risky the industry's ever been because you have like industry the worst industry economics you ever had and yet the balance sheets are super strong. So what, what I, what I see happening candidly is you saw a huge buildup like this massive aggregation of capital around this sector over the last couple years driven by the public miners in anticipation of a breakout in the bitcoin price. But you haven't seen a bitcoin price high enough to make some of the worst publicly traded miners from an operation standpoint profitable, you know, especially on a gap basis, net of depreciation, net of you know, employee compensation, etc, and so you really need to see like 1101-201301-40150 to see real operating leverage in some of those companies. I, I taking Iron, putting that aside, right, because iron's got a 24, 25k energy cost, right. So they already are sitting at like a 75% plus gross margin and they're, they're actually posting gap style net profit for which they just did for and.
- [19:52]
Host
They actually own their equipment, right.
- [19:54]
Mike Alfred
So I mean they, they own their own land, their own infrastructure, right. They hold hard assets that are undervalued relative to the utility for AI so I'm not worried at all actually. I think if Anything, what's going to happen is the price of Bitcoin goes into price discovery again. But because almost all those large public miners are getting some of their infrastructure sucked away to AI, the guys who have the best infrastructure are all getting pulled into AI because the economics for AI are so good and so consistent and predictable. You could do 10 to 15 year leases at a much higher fiat amount. And then you're at aggregating some of your revenue into consolidating into fiat terms where it's less volatile. Right? And so if you could own a stack of infrastructure where it's split between AI and Bitcoin, you can essentially oscillate and toggle between them. You basically want Bitcoin as an offtake, right? Because there's periods of time where you want to curtail. And so you can curtail Bitcoin a lot easier than you can curtail AI, but AI is a lot more stable over the long run. So I think this is actually a really good time. And I think what's amazing is we're so late according to what most people would have thought, right? Like we're like two, almost two and a half years into the cycle. But you can still buy miners for effectively the cost of the infrastructure buildup that they've undertaken. You still have miners trading near their kind of infrastructure cost basis, which I wouldn't have expected, candidly. So that just shows you how much they've underperformed expectations this cycle so far. But again, if we're still early to mid cycle miners historically generate most of their stock market returns in the last few months of the cycle. And so we still have another year in the cycle, then like everyone's going to write them off and say negative things and they've been so shitty and then they're going to tear people's faces off in the back half of 25 and post almost all of their cycle return in a small window. And so I look like I look at CleanSpark right now. CleanSpark has no additional capital in the very short term they need to raise. They stop using their ATM cipher. It's going to be down today because they priced 150 million convertible note. But that literally finishes all of the remaining capex this cycle if they don't end up devoting most of their remaining infrastructure to AI. So like no cipher today. Yeah, I mean like, like you buy it in the 333 40, 350 range and you hold it until they announce an AI deal which is likely to happen in the next 1 2, 3, 4 months, the stock could be 10. Right. Especially with Bitcoin at 150k. And so are you going to get a 3x or 4x from here in Microstrategy? Maybe. If Bitcoin goes up to 2, 300,000, probably. But you might get it with a lot more leverage, in my opinion, in the miners here because they're so exposed to the bitcoin price. I mean, it's the core of their operations. Whereas these other companies are just borrowing money in the capital markets or printing money via an ATM to just buy it, the spot price. And again, as the price of bitcoin goes up, they're paying an increasingly high price to continue to run their strategy. Whereas iron will just keep making new Bitcoin at 40k all in, no matter what price it goes to. So. So there is a spread there that widens.
- [23:10]
Host
I just don't, I just don't understand how that's not flying. 40. I mean, you know, they're minting something that's worth almost three times as much. Right.
- [23:21]
Mike Alfred
Part of it is. Part of it is they're small cap companies and the IWM has been compressed and underperformed for a while. Part of it is that Liquidity tightened in Q1 with the DXY going to 110. Part of it is just sentiment. Part of it is investment alternatives. Right? So like, you have more places you can speculate on bitcoin, but none of that's going to matter. Like what happens over a full cycle is fundamentals eventually rule out. And I think the market is smart. It will figure out if we go to 110, 120, 130, and hash rate growth slows down, which it will inevitably because the people who have capital right now are again devoting more and more of their resources to AI. So you'll see the hash rate, global hash rate top out. Right? At a time when bitcoin is breaking out into price discovery and mining economics will improve at least once before the cycle's over. Unless the cycle's already over right now. Right? So there's like one of two options. Either the cycle's already over right now and we're not going to break 109. And crypto kids are going to cry for the next year or two because they're never going to see a breakout in their favorite meme coins, or alternatively, bitcoin's going to break out over 110, head to 150 and mining economics are going to improve dramatically and miners can Reprice in literally a month. If you look at previous cycles, they can go from looking like they're in the tank to being the best investments in the market in a month. And that period of time can last a total of two to three months. But you can make an entire lifetime's worth of return in that window if you're positioned correctly.
- [24:47]
Host
I have a really important question because one of your other tweets here, I'm in a good mood and feeling bullish. So I'm willing to bet $10 million if Bitcoin hits 124 before 84. Do you have any interest in that?
- [24:57]
Mike Alfred
Unsurprisingly, there are zero people who want to take their cash and literally incinerate it in a furnace. No, like, no interest. I didn't even get a single person saying that they would do more than a thousand dollars. I had a thousand dollar and a couple of. I'll do one to five dollars. But you would have expected, like, given how much confidence there seems to be that we're going to 84, 000 that somebody would have wanted to step up and at least do like a million or something like that. Nope. 0,0 interest in it. And I don't blame them. Like, I don't like lighting my money on fire either.
- [25:32]
Host
I mean, 124 does not feel so far away.
- [25:37]
Mike Alfred
No, once you, once you hit 110, it's basically inevitable. Like when you're at 110. When you hit 110 and $1, 124 is never. No. Look, I actually view like every price between here and a million is inevitable. It's merely a question of time frame. And because my time frame is longer, I can continually make the same prediction. Right, with no consequences. Because again, if you don't use options, you don't use leverage, and you just position long and you're just holding, then you could call for 315k repeatedly and you're invariably going to be right. Unless it blows up. And I just don't see how a decentralized computing platform like Bitcoin blows up completely. Much like I couldn't see how the Internet could blow up. Even though 90, 95% of the Internet companies from the late 90s are no longer with us. The bitcoin is the same way. It'd be as dumb as saying, oh, the Internet's going to go away completely. Right, because the Internet's going to crash. Bitcoin's not going to crash. Just like the Internet, it's not going to crash. If it doesn't crash, then it will go up because they're not going to stop printing money. So 124k, 150k, 200k, all those numbers are inevitable. The question is just the timeline. And again, no one can predict that. I like to joke, I like to make short term and midterm predictions, but those are completely impossible to win on. We've all been wrong about Q1, Q2 of this year. Every single person who was bullish coming into this year thought that Trump would cause the price to break out into price discovery. Nobody thought that we would be at 74k and everyone would be talking about going much lower than that. But look, here we are, we're right near all time highs. It's still only May and bitcoin could easily go to 2 or 300k by the end of the year. But again, that's not like a solid prediction. Nobody knows. Right? Like that's the whole point.
- [27:23]
Host
Yeah, timing is impossible, but the path is all that matters. I wish I could have invested, I wish I could have. Let's put it this way, I wish I could have dollar cost averaged into the Internet and self custody it. In the 1990s that didn't exist.
- [27:35]
Mike Alfred
You couldn't buy HTTP or SMTP tokens.
- [27:38]
Host
So imagine that you now live in a world where you can actually do the equivalent.
- [27:43]
Mike Alfred
No, it's incredible. This is still probably 2002, 2003 at the worst. Internet, Right. And I say that meaning like we've already seen a couple of washouts. A lot of crypto that existed five years ago is gone or at least greatly diminished or crashed or whatever, but you're still left with like solid core assets. Like Bitcoin's not going anywhere, Ethereum's not going anywhere, Solana's not going anywhere. I personally don't feel the need to put a lot of capital behind those other things, but I think bitcoin today is still an incredible 20 year opportunity where you're looking at, even if it's only a 20% kegr, you're not going to get a 20% kegr in too many other assets with basically zero idiosyncratic bankruptcy style risk like you get with a company. So people who say, oh, you could have beaten bitcoin with Nvidia, yeah. If you could have picked the one company out of 3, 4, 5,000, sure, good. But with bitcoin you don't have to. It's already won as like the money of the Internet. And so you're betting on the winner and you're still going to get a 20, 30, 40% KEGR. And for periods of time it might be higher, particularly during times where in the recent past it's underperformed. Like I don't know if you saw this, but people were posting a lot of charts as recently as 6 months ago pointing out that bitcoins had almost no significant return since November of 2021. And they were cherry picking dates to show you that. Well, great. That means you buy it because anytime when you look back three, four year periods historically and bitcoin is not posting like a very exceptional return, you can like fast forward, yeah, another year or two and from a mean reversion standpoint you'll look back from there and you'll be like God, so obvious. Whenever the kid analysts are posting that bitcoin's underperforming, that's exactly when you buy it. So I think we're going to a period now where it's going to generate most of its return over the next year or so and then we'll look back from there and say, oh yeah, look, it's just doing what it's always done, like cagr that far exceeds the market average.
- [29:40]
Host
Any final thoughts before I let you go? Anything I might have missed?
- [29:44]
Mike Alfred
Just. No, you didn't miss anything. But I just remind people to buy and hold bitcoin and at these prices buy and hold the top infrastructure companies. You know, companies like Cypher and Iron and Clean Spark and others because they're invariably, they're the means of production. Right. So if you believe bitcoin is going higher, there's no way that those companies balance sheets as well as their streams of cash flow don't get revalued. Especially if we see some sort of curtailment in the global hash rate growth which I think we will see over the next six months or so. It'll still go up towards 1000 Exahash, but it will start to slow down on the way there at the same time that hopefully bitcoin's price accelerates. So this is prime time. The back half of this year is prime time. Either that happens or it doesn't. But you're not going to see a huge bull market in bitcoin treasury companies without a repricing of the infrastructure stack. It's not going to happen. So people think that you can have one in a vacuum. You won't have it. Sort of like you couldn't have seen Facebook or Google without Cisco. And the buildup of the infrastructure business behind the Internet, you needed that excessive buildup in the late 90s in terms of broadband infrastructure, chips, data centers, et cetera, in order to lay the groundwork for the future of the consumer Internet. The same thing's happening in Bitcoin. You won't get 200,000, 300,000 Bitcoin. You won't see huge multiples in microstrategy and Meta Planet without a fundamental repricing of the infrastructure. And if that's going to happen, it's going to happen in the next, call it six to 12 months.
- [31:16]
Host
Love it. Hopefully I'll see you next week. Maybe. Maybe, Yeah. A drink, a high five, something if I get lucky.
- [31:23]
Mike Alfred
I'll see you. And I'll be down there. I'll be there like in the afternoons, I'll be there in the evening, basically for a few of the days. So let's coordinate by text.
- [31:33]
Host
Awesome. I'll send you a text, man. Thank you as always for waking up early to do this with us. Really appreciate it.
- [31:38]
Mike Alfred
Anytime. Talk to you later.
- [31:41]
Host
All right, guys, before I bring on Chris, who was actually nodding a lot in the background. I could see him in there and he was like, yep, buy Bitcoin. I could see it. Obviously gonna mention, since it's Wednesday, we got Aptos here. I actually randomly was in Dubai and I saw Avery walk by, the CEO of aptos. I said, dude, let's sit down, do a quick chat for the Street. If you guys have not been paying attention, I've been doing a lot of interviews on the Street. We're actually going to start posting those on my channels as well and syndicating my content from these morning shows onto the street and Yahoo and msn. So that's going to be really incredible. But we sat down, I did this interview for the Street. And when we do interviews for the street, we obviously focus on what a tradfi audience is going to want to hear. They have 30 million subscribers, all of them have a million dollar portfolio or more and most of them are boomers. So really an opportunity to sor of not scream into our echo chamber. I found this conversation that I had with avery@token 2049 Dubai, really fascinating. And we've talked about this before, but really his point was that at this point, these chains, Aptos in particular, is faster and cheaper than the largest in the world and is finally ready to operate at scale. As he said, it can surpass the likes of MasterCard and Visa. But more interestingly, at Aptos at least they've kind of focused on this being the global trading engine and that's what's going to be built. That basically all trade and commerce will happen on a blockchain. Whether that's investable or not. This will be the underlying technology. Here's what he said. We can actually build out systems that are going to be one global market. An example would be like if you want to take out a loan and then make a trade and then upon the trade do another action. You can string all those things together on a blockchain permissionlessly. I think that that's the future of what's happening. Obviously that's what they're trying to build. So check out that interview. It's on the street.com crypto. It's a good one if I do say so myself, which is weird because it's like it's me kind of awkward. Anyways, now it's time to go to Chris and let's talk about how bitcoin would you take the 10 million dollar bet against Mike? 84 versus 124.
- [33:46]
Chris Inks
Oh, I'm not even thinking about 84 at all. Just. That makes no sense right now.
- [33:53]
Host
I'm gonna say that I was a little worried and Mike mocked, mocked it, but fairly, you know, I do see some serious bearish divergence across the board and even maybe on the weekly. So I'm not saying 84, but this does feel at least Sunday, I will say felt euphoric on a Sunday on no volume with price pushing into resistance with overbought conditions and bearish divergence. So I obviously think we're going way higher. Yeah, obviously. But I do think this is a time for caution.
- [34:24]
Chris Inks
Yeah, I mean, you know, shorter time frame. Sure. You know, if you want to take a little, take a little off the top there. I think, you know, that there's nothing wrong with that. You're coming up into resistance. You know, one of the most basic tenants of trading is you don't, you don't buy resistance, you don't sell support. You know, does that mean that price always bounces at support or you know, always gets rejected at resistance? No, but you're, you know. Yeah.
- [34:52]
Host
You also push in with pocket aces and sometimes lose in poker, but just.
- [34:55]
Chris Inks
Yeah, exactly. You know, you're just trying to figure out what can I do that gives me the best possibility that you know, that I'm going to come out at least somewhat ahead here. I, I bring up the monthly chart because look at these monthly candles. Absolutely amazing coming off here. I mean this is not a bearish move. You know, when you're Coming off support, you've got two large bullish candles, very little overlap. I mean the previous month, just a slight little wick up here. And then here we are back up here and you know, we've got what we've got three day weekend coming up here this weekend. I was thinking it was next weekend, but it's this weekend, Memorial Day.
- [35:34]
Host
Yeah.
- [35:35]
Chris Inks
So liquidity will dry up then. And then we've got just, you know, next week. So I like what I'm seeing so far. You mentioned bearish divergence. Here's what. Here we are on the monthly. Here's the bigger picture, right. So we had some bearish divergence over here, which we got the rejection here, right. But then we have, you know, again, we got higher highs here, we got higher highs here and we've got. I don't even know. Yeah, a little bit of a bearish divergence right there. And then we got the pullback. But a lot of people are going to jump from here. A lot of, you know, new traders, amateurs, right. They come back. Oh, but look, from here to here, it's bearish divergence. But that isn't how it works, right? Divergences always go from peak to peak, you know, trough to trough. And so right here, these are the peaks right here. And so at that point, we're now here and here. So now we've got, you know, higher highs. We got higher highs. Like I said, a little bit of bearish divergence right here. And then we pulled back, found support. I mean, it's absolutely incredible. This chart is amazing here. The stochastic RSI reset into oversold, pop back out. It's threatening to cross bullishly here. So I think our monthly setup is looking amazing. But like you said on the weekly, you know, again, a bit of, of bearish divergence there, which brought us down. And then here we are potentially, potentially here maybe. But you know, again, here we are. Everybody was, this was the end of the world. Remember? This was the end of the world. This was it. The, the bears were right, the top was in. Oh my God, it's going to go lower. And what did we do? All we did was hit that previous resistance as support right there around that pivot and then just kind of took off. You know, this is what, this is like 40 somewhat percent in less. Well, yeah, in just what, a month and a half right now. Absolutely insane. Great movement. This is the Bitcoin all time history index chart. So that, that all time high is109,346 here. But I mean look at this structure. It's absolutely beautiful. You know, an expanding funnel coming off that bear market low here, you know, more sideways here as we got kind of to the breakout point and then again here after we got through the breakout point retesting here. So I mean, you know, base here, base sitting right on top of it, you know, and, and you know, Mike was saying what, 300, what does he say? 315, something like that.
- [38:04]
Host
315.
- [38:04]
Mike Alfred
Two.
- [38:05]
Host
Yeah. Yep.
- [38:06]
Chris Inks
Okay, so if we look at this here as, as a one and a two here, I think this will do it. I think that'll even get a little bit better target off that. That gives us a 362 and a half. And so, you know, there's different ways to look at this. But here's the thing. Most people when they're counting this, they'll go 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. We're so close to that resistance that it's highly unlikely. But all we need is one penny and it doesn't have to close it. Just one penny push above the all time high. And this cannot be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, which means all of a sudden we have to look here and go, well Maybe this is 1, 2, 3, 4. And then 1, 2, 1, 2. And again that gets us up into that territory where, you know, where everybody's scared to talk about. They all want to believe, they all want to say 300,000. But it's a scary thought from, you know, because we're, you know, number bias, right? We're already at 107,000 right now. So I, you know, structurally we look absolutely, it looks absolutely, absolutely amazing. The weekly, the continued pullback right to this same level at all these major kind of sideways has held perfectly. My usual thought on something like this is that we get this rally right up into this resistance area into the previous swing high, a little bit before, a little bit after. Usually somewhere there you get the rejection and then you get the real breakout. So that, that's my default case here is that we're gonna potentially get that. We could be at the top, but I think, I think we've got a little bit further push. I think we're gonna actually challenge that all time high there, you know, finishing up like an ending diagonal here. So 1, 2, 3, 4, and then finish five up here. But we'll see, we'll see if we can get it. I think we will. But man, oh man, you know, pullback. I've kind of got this area here, this, this is like that major, right? You're either below it or you're above it. And we're above it now. So the idea is we would pull back to should hold this support. So we're really kind of talking about this hundred thousand level, you know, on the daily or higher. Should find your candles closing around there on a pullback. So, you know, I think, I think we could maybe see something like, maybe like I pull down here and a move up here and then like, let me see here. Maybe something like this and then a breakout. I, I could see something like this where we continue to hold this here and we just do some kind of backward forth here and everybody keeps freaking out and every time it breaks out and comes back, the bears jump out of the woodwork. And look, we were right, we were right back over here. We were right at the top and it does that and then kind of takes off. But you know, this is really just kind of guessing on this. But you know, I, I would generally my first thought would be that this would hold here. Now this is all just if we get, you know, rejected in this area, that the reality of it is it could take off. We could hit 135 or something like that before we even start getting some kind of pullback. Just because he hit here, we hit here, we hit a few times here. Here we're coming again and finally ready for that breakout. Right. So we'll see what happens with it. But I, I'm not in the least bit worried about bitcoin overall. Like I said, my initial thought is we usually kind of hit that area and then we get a pullback and then we do the real breakout. But it doesn't have to, you know, nothing's 100 in trading. And so, you know, the idea shouldn't be to try and get cute and sell everything at every top or every what you think is a. And buy back everything at what you think is a bottom. Right? You should be, you know, if you want to make the most of bitcoin, it should always be scaling in and scaling out. So you've always got some kind of positions building or taking profit on as, you know, as the price continues to move. And that really is the safest way to do it. But it takes a little bit more work. Right? You can't just jump all in and go woohoo. You know, here we are, we're gonna, you know, we're all going to be rich now kind of thing. But yeah, so I like bitcoin. I like the way it's looking right now. I do have Some all charts here. I've got this first one. Man, this is super USD. Look at this chart. This is absolutely amazing. I love seeing this chart. Looks like a huge bit of reaccumulation here from right around. What is that? March of last year in terms of LA would be a flat. So three down, three up, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 back down here. Support at the S1 pivot on the yearly rallying up here. So basically would expect a rejection here, a pullback then a breakout. I've got two local targets here at $2.87.88 and 3.47 cents. But I would highly expect this to break out above you know, this 397 up here and a lot of kind of upside on that. But it's not going to do it right from right now. Right. I think we potentially push up a little bit further and then pull back and then kind of get some movement going. But just from the monthly just this is just such an absolutely gorgeous chart. Pulled rack right to the the low volume node. I mean there's everything that you want to see happen happened here. And with you know over a year of accumulation happening here, it really sets up the move out on that larger time frame. I've got P, Y, T H here pith. Did you sound weird saying pith pith but it looks like we've got five waves up and then an A and a B and a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. So it looks like a large expand a large flat correction here. Pull back right into this demand structure on the daily right to the EQ there. Coming back off in here. Stochastic RSI resetting and oversold. I think we're probably good to go here. That would give us a minimum expected wave 3 target up around 38 cents. If you really are much more risk adverse, you want to see a breakout at least above this, swing high right here at 16 basically 16 cents because that'll say okay well this wave can't subdivide any lower and most likely that's going to be complete. So but I think we're good here. You could also look for a daily candle impulsive breakout and close here above the, the monthly pivot here at. Oh, did it not show up? What's going on here? Oh, there we go at about 14 cents if you want to get a little bit earlier. But those, you know, the 14 cent and then breaking above that 16 set, those would be the other two areas I'd look to enter. If you're not willing to do it here. But man, oh, man. If you're willing to do it here.
- [44:52]
Host
Yeah, look at this.
- [44:53]
Chris Inks
Yeah. I mean, it looks. It looks just really great. Which things can look really great and end up not working. I mean, you know, that happens. But I mean, right there, if you're doing it properly, that's. That's 23 and a half hour right there. That's an amazing trade. So, liking the setup there on the daily. We've got this other one. I hadn't heard of this one, but the chart looks kind of interesting right here. This is Strax S T R A X usdt. Just looking for a breakout, an impulsive breakout. And close here. Daily candle above this descending resistance. And if we can get that, I've got a target, a pattern target of about twelve dollars. I'm sorry, twelve and a quarter cents up here based on the height of that pullback. But I like the pullback. I like where it's come down to. You've seen this, a lot of this. And by the way, there are a ton of charts right now that look really good. I just picked some. You know, if you're paying attention, the setups are there just about there. But I mean, you've got this great resistance as support. Just looking for the breakout to kind of grab and run that up. What else do we have here? I've got cake. I've got cake. A lot of people are gonna say this looks like a triangle. It's just. It looks to me like it's three waves setting up in consolidation, which means you could actually get a really huge breakout. And so based on the height of this largest one here, that would have us minimally looking about $8 and 45 cents. But if you just want to play the local here, we've got the. The breakout of this descending resistance. Kind of like what we're seeing on the other one that we're waiting for. That gives us a pattern target up here at $2 and basically 94 cents, which puts us just right here, support resistance. Perfect area to, you know, to kind of get that move into. But wouldn't be surprised to see that much bigger move coming out of cake. Pancake swap.
- [46:44]
Mike Alfred
Right?
- [46:45]
Chris Inks
Did I get that right? I think that's the one, right?
- [46:47]
Host
I guess, probably.
- [46:50]
Chris Inks
See, I asked you because I love that. You're like, yeah, maybe, sure. So you're like me. You're like, yeah. What does it do? I don't know.
- [46:56]
Host
I just said that Rihanna song.
- [47:01]
Chris Inks
This one. I've got a couple of targets here, depending how you want to play it based on the height of this pullback right here, we've got a target of about 0.1137 or so, which, as you can see, gets us right to this support resistance right there. Absolutely beautiful target area. And then also, you know, if we're going up through that, you can look up here toward 0.1282, and then 0.1571 would be the targets following that if it continued breaking out through that. But again, you know, just got this. These great setups, right? You have the. The kind of like the swing there, and then the pull back into it, and then the move up, and then you kind of get the same thing here, right? It's not exactly, but you're getting where that general resistance is into support. He's pulling up. And so we're seeing this on a lot of charts right now. It's really not too hard to mess it up unless you get all up in your feels when it comes to alts. Right now, this one's render. Render usdt. We know what that one is, right? Yeah. Again, based on the height of the pullback here, we got a target around 6.44. You know, if. If you want to look for a breakout here above 4.96, that. That might, you know, if you're more risk adverse, that would be something you might want to wait for. But, you know, I think we're kind of getting this rally up over there. We're finding some great support right here with this nice bit of accumulation, a little spring here thumping out and continuing up through this low volume node here, moving up. So again, kind of liking that as well. And then I've got Adam here. Let me see here. Yeah, there we go. Looking for a breakout. I mean, I think that low is probably in, but if you're again, more risk adverse, wait for the breakout above $5. And, you know, 0.136 here, 13 and a half cents. Based on the height of that pullback, we've got a pattern target up here of about $6.16, which will take us to the top of the low volume node, potentially right up here around the top of this ascending channel. It's a really clean target, a really good area to look for if you're looking to trade that. And finally, I've got graph here, the graph grt Again, just lots of really great stuff. We had this descending resistance as support here right at the pivot. Monthly pivot looks like a pretty clean five waves up. And then A, B, C is a flat here, pulls back Right to this previous support resistance level. I mean like I said, the setup just looks absolutely amazing. So we just want to see some follow through now. And if we can get that we would actually need because it'd be an a B up here in a C here we need a breakout above 0.1312 to add confidence to this count. But wave three, minimum expected target up there at 29, almost 29 and a half cents. But really liking this. You know again some people might look at this and go, okay, well it's a. Oh, I don't even have. There we go. It's a inverted head and shoulders here. So we kind of just get this like this or.
- [50:15]
Host
Yeah, with a perfect retest.
- [50:17]
Chris Inks
Yeah, I mean retest of the neckline right there. And if you're going to look at that, you know, again pattern target wise you're just looking for 200 based on the height of that at the point of breakout. So you're basically looking at 0.168. And as you can see, I mean again takes you a perfect, you know, resistance kind of support level area there. So man, you know, it's hard to be down. I know people are beat up and they, but you know, most, for most people it's because they don't really know what they're doing and so they get all, you know, upset because it's so long been looking like crap and then when it finally starts looking good they're scared to take it. Right. They're scared to get excited or they don't even really know what it means to look good on the chart there. And so hopefully I kind of clarified a little bit that here showing, you know, the pullbacks into previous resistances, support and nice breakouts and stuff like that. But I, I think if you've been waiting for alts, if you haven't been trading them, heaven forbid you haven't been. But I think if you're, you know, looking at them, I think you should be finding entries. You know, we've got a lot of them turn out really well there at, at the Academy. Not just with myself and Fibble, but also with Andrew and Vince and their trades they've been putting out there. And it's just been a lot of money to be made, a lot of money being made and not just with crypto, but also with stocks. So I like it, feel good about it.
- [51:39]
Host
Called Stonks.
- [51:40]
Chris Inks
My bad, my bad. That's, that's my 50 going on 51.
- [51:44]
Host
Getting at me there, old man. You don't even know what they're called anymore.
- [51:49]
Chris Inks
But, yeah, so I, I, you know, I continue to feel good about it. I think maybe it's giving people what they finally been looking for. But a lot of people are going to be too scared right now to enjoy these as they've been coming off the lows. I mean, they're already up pretty good. You know, again, just looking at the last one we had there, the graph, it's already up. What is that? So far it's been up almost 100 off its low back in, back in April. April 7th. I mean, come on, it's, it's telling you guys it's there. You just got to take advantage of it, right?
- [52:21]
Host
Yep, you do. And now you got to go take advantage of having to do Twitter spaces today. So gotta go. Got Chris Inc's TX West Capital, guys. Give them a follow. Go join the academy. Go watch beers. Everything they're doing. Watch his streams. Watch them with Tillman and Andrew.
- [52:37]
Chris Inks
Yes, today. Today, guys, it comes in about, what is that, two hours from now?
- [52:41]
Host
Yeah, guys, enjoy that. Otherwise we are out of here. Thanks, Chris.
- [52:46]
Chris Inks
Appreciate it, man.
- [52:48]
Host
Let's go.