Loading summary
Transcript64 lines
- [00:02]
Scott
Bitcoin broke above $110,000 today before dropping slightly on a very strong jobs report because apparently more people having jobs is a good reason for people to sell bitcoin. I'll never understand that. But we're going to dig in and talk about what the job report means for the likelihood of rate cuts. Of course, all of our other favorite topics surrounding crypto, the big beautiful bill, bitcoin, treasury companies, and everything else happening in the news cycle and market. We've got Yago, of course, and the amazing David Young from Coinbase to help us unpack all of it with chart guys on the back half. Let's go, let's do. I think I would get tired of hearing that music every day, but I still kind of like it, honestly. And I. I hear it like 10 times a day, it feels like, but it doesn't actually bother me. But I know some of you hate it, which is why I just keep it to trigger you and make sure that you come back highly triggered. Good morning, Yago. Good morning, David. How are you?
- [01:14]
Yago
I happen to like the music, thank you. And I don't like saxophones.
- [01:19]
Scott
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a trumpet, but hey, I'm here for it.
- [01:22]
David Young
There you go.
- [01:23]
Scott
Maybe that's why, I mean, you know, maybe. Maybe that's why you like it because it's trumpet, but, you know, we got some horns going on. Wakes you up in the morning. What else? The other thing that we've got going on here is a very, very surprising. I guess, I don't know if we should ever be surprised because we know the numbers are fake, but a very solid jobs report. I think a lot of people were looking for weak jobs report here in June, we got a strong jobs report. And as I said, when you live in the Upside down, like Stranger Things, which we do, more people having jobs is bad for markets because it means that the Fed is less likely to cut, certainly less likely to cut in July. It gives Powell cover, and that means less liquidity and that means less printing and party. Did I get that right, David?
- [02:08]
David Young
Yeah. I mean, you kind of have to price it in because the data has changed. But honestly, I don't think the trend has. So I think they're still going to cut rates by 25 bips. 25 bips in September and October. That hasn't changed in my book, in part because I think people also have gotten the other part of it wrong, which is tariffs. And a lot of people have been concerned of, like, all right, you're going to get tariffs and that's going to shoot prices higher and therefore it's going to keep the Fed from hiking rates. In fact, that is what Powell said in front of the Senate Bank Committee, in front of the House Finance Services Committee last week. So I understand why people are thinking this. The problem is that the reality is that when you're thinking about tariffs from a long term perspective, it reduces aggregate demand, which actually should cause a disinflationary effect which actually leads the Fed to continue cutting rates. Because if you're thinking about the Fed, you think about real rates and if nominal rates are stuck at four and a quarter, four and a four and a half and your inflation is going to trend lower, that means in real terms the actual impact of those rates is actually higher. So you actually are effectively forced to kind of cut rates in part two because you're seeing like guys like the ECB cutting rates by like eight times over such a short period of time. Consol have kind of have to keep pace. So I don't think anything has changed on that front.
- [03:23]
Scott
What do you think, Diago?
- [03:24]
Yago
I think the weirdest thing that's happening right now is that the ECB is cutting rates and the Euro is strengthening against the dollar. That's the strangest thing going on right now. As for what the Fed is going to do, I honestly have no idea. I think eventually they're going to be forced to cut rates. Whether it's Powell or not, I don't know. But the primary driver for cutting rates in my view is that the US cannot afford its interest payments on the debt that it currently holds at current interest rates. And so there's going to be a strong desire to reduce those rates one way or another. In terms of Bitcoin, I think the most interesting and exciting thing is that even though the job reports came in and you would have expected, despite I think, Scott, what you think you would have expected Bitcoin to drop a little bit because people are expecting rate cuts to increase the price of Bitcoin and therefore if they think that those rate cuts are less likely, you would expect a drop in the near term bitcoin price. The drop was extremely mild and after a strong climb up. So I think it's demonstrating very, very strong strength from btc.
- [04:34]
David Young
I think what's happening with the dollar is massively important and I think it's important to our space. It's important to understanding what's going to happen because. Because we're looking at an actual regime shift over the last 15 years. You've had around like $33 trillion worth of buying of US equities, US bonds, whatever from foreign ass. From foreign buyers talking about like pension funds, insurance companies. And all those guys were basically under hedged or unhedged on at least like half of that position. So like for the longest time they're like, well, owning the dollar is our hedge. Now all those entities are indiscriminately selling the dollar. Like the covered interest rate parity model which we've used to kind of look at the dollar and its valuation, I. E. Like ECB cutting rates. Why is it not kind of impacting the dollar? Well, because interest rates are not driving the dollar performance right now. All the other factors in terms of the debt supply that you kind of mentioned, in terms of what's happening with the global trade situation, all these things are impacting us much harder and they're not going to change. Like I think that's the other thing that people do not yet recognize that even if you started to unwind the tariff situation, all these other things, the damage has already been done. Like I think we're now at a place where that indiscriminate dollar seller is permanently fixed into our markets and we're going to continue seeing that weaker dollar.
- [05:51]
Scott
Interesting. I don't disagree. So I think the Fed eventually is just going to cut slowly like you said. I don't know if it's going to be September or October, but I think it is inevitable. I want to talk more now since we've dug into that macro side of things here. Tokenized stocks seems to be the big narrative of the moment. Obviously we had the huge Robin Hood conference and announcement the other day and they said they're going to offer tokenized equities all over Europe. Gemini doing the same, Kraken doing the same. Coinbase. Right. I mean everybody's getting in on a tokenized stock somewhere in the world, not necessarily in the United States yet. But interestingly, Robinhood's Vlad Tenev said that they were doing a giveaway with SpaceX and OpenAI, which are obviously private companies. And OpenAI was not, not happy about this. They basically came back, they were like you, this is not equity. We did not release this to them. We have no idea what they're talking about. And basically Vlad pushed back and said, read the terms, it's a derivative. Right. But there's some other entities that are concerned as well about tokenized stocks. Financial Industry Group Pushes Back on Tokenized Equities Urges SEC to Reject Crypto Firms Exemption so This seems like the inevitable wave of the future, but also seems natural that there would be pushback from those who don't want to see change and profit massively from the current system.
- [07:10]
Yago
Well, I think, and I'm interested in David's view, but my view is that there's relatively little appetite that's been demonstrated so far for tokenized stocks. It's been tried on a, in a bunch of different ways. It's been tried with tokens, it's been tried on purpose markets and with, you know, things like Nvidia stock or Tesla shares. And there hasn't been that much interest. I think what's interesting about what Robinhood chose to do is try to provide a product that you can't actually buy from your broker that you kind of would only be able to do with crypto and that is stock for a private rather than publicly traded company. And I think there, there's, you know, substantial demand. There's a lot of people who would love to own a piece of SpaceX or own a piece of OpenAI and today have zero access.
- [08:04]
Scott
Yeah.
- [08:04]
David Young
So I think that I'm not surprised to see that financial industry groups are trying to protect their moat because obviously this would eat into their business model. But what I kind of worry about is that we're going to learn the wrong lessons from all of this because we're still looking at Tokenized Securities 1.0. And there's nothing wrong with that. It's just that this model basically still needs a custodian like DTCC to kind of sit there, hold these assets in custody while you tokenize the replica on chain. And that's fine, except that that's not where the benefits of being on chain and what blockchains actually offer, like in terms of instantaneous settlement, in terms of being able to reduce intermediaries, in terms of being able to reduce the cost. Like all that stuff I think is going to be a lot more powerful because then you won't have guys who need to actually like trade the stuff, have assets sit there for T plus 2 actually being a cost to them at like say 5% interest rates because like they're, they're going to need to accumulate like you know, $5 billion in order to kind of pay that off over like, over a few days, like those things go away when you have tokenization. And by the way, when you start to actually have real tokenized assets, that is assets that are natively securities that are natively on chain, then you can actually start integrating this stuff into derivatives. If you need to have collateral that can actually be margin called instantaneously. That is where the power of actually tokenized securities could come from in a version 2.0. But we're not there yet and worried that a lot of people are going to look at this and say like, well, 1.0 didn't work. So obviously 2.0 is not going to work. No, these are two different animals.
- [09:45]
Scott
Yeah, so that's a really good point. This is basically somebody has to buy the stock, tokenize it, and then you trade it, but there's still somebody that owns the actual stock. Right. And in the future maybe they're actually issued on the blockchain and therefore you don't have that sort of middleman, which is the whole problem with crypto anyways. I mean, that solves, I mean, right. So if the point of crypto is to solve having middlemen between our transactions, that's really not solved by this version of tokenized stocks. Interesting.
- [10:14]
Yago
But I think that's part of the reason that Robinhood have chosen to do the derivative. Right. Because derivative allows them to tokenize something which is not available. And, and as a result other than themselves doesn't require an intermediary. And you actually could build a completely decentralized version of this, like a contract for difference. Right. So two people take a bet on what the price of OpenAI is going to be in a year or five years, and the derivative of that bit, that tokenized version of the bit effectively acts as a tokenized version of OpenAI shares at a cost which you can purchase.
- [10:53]
Scott
Yeah, that makes sense. So I think that you guys got it right, is that it's really encouraging to see this happening, but we're in the very early innings of it and I doubt that it will be massively popular especially, I mean, first of all, it's not available to Americans who are the bulk of stock trading for a reason. And Americans aren't going to be interested if it does come here and tokenize stocks when they can just trade stocks. Right. So it's just going to really be foreigners who want access to these things and don't currently have it. So the next topic we have today, my favorite of course, Bitcoin treasury companies. Franklin Templeton flags uncertain outlook for Crypto Treasury Firms citing dangerous Feedback loop risk. We've got Scaramucci saying that Crypto treasury company trend will fade away. I talk about this every day. I tend to agree with both of them. I don't think that there's anything inherently wrong with Bitcoin Treasury Companies. I think that companies that actually are bitcoin balance sheet companies and adding it to their balance sheet is great because that's the original ethos of bitcoin. But financial engineering to buy more bitcoin, in my mind can just can't end well. But let's talk about it. I mean, David, are you a massive bitcoin treasury company bull or do you share the skepticism of Scaramucci and Franklin Templeton here?
- [12:10]
David Young
So I like that you're making that distinction because you have companies that we've been hearing like Figma this week, for example. Like, we found out that they have crypto on the balance sheet. Figma is preeminently not a crypto accumulation company. They are not actually out there to just accumulate crypto on their balance sheet. They just happen to have it for cash management purposes, business operation purposes. And I think that's great. And I think that part of that has to do with the FASB kind of rule change that we saw back in December 2024. So this is allowing a lot more of these companies to actually have it on balance sheet and not be a problem. Because previously they could only write down the value of the crypto on their balance sheet. They could never write it up. Now they can quote, unquote, mark to market. But like, I think the other question, which is the financial engineering companies, like, what what's going to happen? Like, do we need like a hundred, like microstrategy clones, for example? Like, do we need a hundred of these guys doing the same thing? I think that's going to be the big question. I mean, certainly there are the ones that are doing the longer tail stuff, which I think is kind of interesting. Like, you know, the one who's like doing like Tao, for example, I think that that represents something that's really, really hard for the average person to do, which is to like a, accumulate TAO and then B, actually stake it? And you know, like, if you're in this space, probably not so hard. But if you're like your average person, those are the guys who are like, I just want someone to do it for me. Like, and I just want to buy the equity. And by the way, like, there is an actual buyer of this stuff because there are like, you know, firms like, on the institutional level who can't even access the etf, much less like buy the real thing. So they are actually still forced into some of these proxies. So I don't think that this trend is necessarily just like, oh, all these guys just want to do like a 5x on, on their stock, like over, like the, on the convertible they have like. No, no. I, I think that there is actually a buyer and seller for these things. So I, I think that this is the reason this trend exists in the first place. But I, yeah, I, I would be cautious. The fact that a lot of the debt cliff, so to speak, for a lot of these things probably would, will happen like four or five years time, like somewhere in 2029 is what I calculated. So you know, like I'm worried about, for selling pressure and the impact on our space. But also I think the idea that this stuff is going to be like a Celsius or Blockfi or Voyager or ftx, like that's completely exaggerated. That's not fraud.
- [14:26]
Scott
Well, I've made those comparisons, but not at all on the fraud side. Only in that I think when we get the 90th and 95th and 110th of these companies, they're going to be competing for more risky offerings to raise the debt. Right. So, but that doesn't blow up the market, that just crushes the shareholders who buy that thing. Right. So I think it's a much more localized risk to anyone dumb enough, I guess to buy like a more attractive convertible debt note from the hundredth company that's doing this. But maybe that demand won't even be there in the first place.
- [14:58]
David Young
But at the same time this isn't the grayscale kind of effect. Like grayscale, like you couldn't, you know, you couldn't offload these things. I mean like, like if you're trading at a premium and you're a company that's going to start trading at a discount, for example, like what do you do? Well, you will just like start to like sell some of the holdings you have, some of the crypto holdings you have, which arguably that's kind of what I'm worried about in terms of the, for selling pressure. But that's a market impact. But then, and then what do you use that with those funds to do? Well, you buy back the stock and then you bring it back to parity. So at the same time you're not going to see like those deep discounts you saw in the like GPTC kind of era.
- [15:35]
Scott
I agree. I'll go.
- [15:38]
Yago
I've been starting to come around to the idea that this could last a lot longer than people anticipate. Yeah. So you know, basically when you're buying one of these companies, you're buying two things. You're buying the btc, but really what you're buying is the premium, right? And you're sort of taking a bet on how much premium there will be in the future. Because if, if BTC goes up but the premium goes down faster, then you're actually going to lose money. And as more and more companies come on board, what they're competing on is not the btc, they're competing on the premium. And they're potentially going to, because they're competing to offer you sort of better and better terms, they're offering you cheaper and cheaper premium. So my, my initial thinking over the first few months of this trend was that, you know, premiums are going to go down to zero. Everything's going to be priced at the price of BTC and the trend will end because these companies won't have the means to purchase more btc. I no longer think that's possible and I no longer no longer think that's possible for two reasons. First of all, they're not just relying on the premium anymore. They're not just selling shares in order to buy btc. They're starting to be able to tap into debt markets. And, and those debt markets are extremely deep and can offer very, very significant yield, which is still below the cost of below sort of like the returns that you get on BTC appreciation. The second thing is there's a very, very strong reflexive effect here, right? So the more these companies exist, the more they're buying btc, the more pressure there is on btc, the higher the BTC price goes, the higher the BTC price goes, the higher the shares in these companies go. And then that sort of desire to close that gap on the premium is diminished somewhat. So I think this could go on for quite a while.
- [17:23]
Scott
David, what do you think? I mean, I do think that there's a bubble here, but I don't think it's soon. So I kind of agree. You said 2029. I mean, that's in crypto years. Like we'll be on to 15 other things by then.
- [17:38]
David Young
So I mean, 2029 is when like MicroStrategy's next big convertible debt comes to. I think it's like 3 billion. 20December 2029, it's around like another 4 billion between Marathon holdings and MicroStrategy in March 2030. And by the way, like, you know, they have optionality so they can convert that and pay it, I. E. Through like equity at some point before that time comes around. And also keep in mind that for the big entities like MicroStrategy, like these guys can actually refinance do other things. This is not like, you know, the, the end of all things. Like, once that debt starts to kind of come due, they're able to kind of roll it over in some way. So I think that there's going to be a lot more that they haven't even looked at. But I think Yago makes a really good point that one of the reasons why these companies are doing as well is because they can finance so cheaply. Like, you're basically financing next to zero in order to be able to kind of buy these things and buy these assets. I think that is also why this trend, it's hard to kind of see it kind of, kind of leaving anytime soon because it seems like a good deal for them. Let's refinance it. Like finance at zero, accumulate like crypto, put it on our balance sheet and actually we look like a much stronger company.
- [18:50]
Scott
Okay, so explain to me, like I'm five years old, why you would buy this stock in one of these companies instead of just buying bitcoin. Now I understand why somebody would buy the debt for them to be able to raise Bitcoin for all the reasons you just said. But if your average person, why would you buy one? Maybe even a better question, how do you choose which one you would want to buy if you do, if there's going to be so many out there? And why would you do that instead of simply buying bitcoin?
- [19:17]
David Young
That's why I think the mode around micro strategy is. Is. I don't know what the word is. Like, so, so why? I guess because I think that you, if you're thinking about proxies, you really kind of only need like one or two of these. You don't need 100. You know, like, MicroStrategy has firmly established itself as that key player in all of this, obviously the one who kind of got the ball rolling with a lot of these strategies. And so I think that probably if you're, you know, let's say a probably not family office, but maybe an endowment or a real money shop who's looking to get exposure to stuff, you can't get into the ETFs because your board won't let you. Like, it's easier to look at something like microstrategy slash strategy because, you know, then you can actually say like, well, this looks like all the other stuff in our portfolio. It looks, it's another equity company. We know how to value equities. Cool. But to your question, like, but if you're just an average person, why would I buy this other than the expectation that it may 2x3x5x relative to its leverage holdings of this stuff, like are they accumulating like Bitcoin or whatever crypto asset at a fast enough pace that justifies that cost for now it does. But Thiago's point, at some point it might fall back to parody. But then your downside is parody. You know, like, like if you're buying it unfortunately at like the 5x valuation and not parody valuation, then you're in trouble. But if you bought it like 1x.
- [20:43]
Scott
Then yeah, I guess the question to me that it's just that if you naturally know that more of these are being created, which they continue to be, you would assume, as he said, that the premiums will be arbed away. So why not just buy Bitcoin?
- [20:56]
Yago
Well, I think the reality is that what these companies represent is a cheap but imperfect leverage to play on Bitcoin. So the leverage, you're able to get leverage in Bitcoin much more cheaply than you would elsewhere. But at the same time it's not a perfect proxy for that leverage. And one of the reasons that you might want to go with one of the smaller companies rather than MicroStrategy is because a company that has, let's say a thousand BTC can much more easily double its BTC per share than MicroStrategy, which is sitting on 600,000. As to sort of being able to actually give any advice to anyone on which one you would actually buy, I haven't the faintest clue. I, I don't know. But, but, but I think that the attraction here is get leverage on BTC cheaply. And then also maybe, you know, if you time it right and the premiums are relatively low and you think the premiums are going to go higher, you sort of juice your returns that way as well.
- [22:00]
Scott
I think these are the ICOs of 2025. I think that these are just altcoins with people. I mean, it's a much creative way to be. I agree. Because in public markets, and I'm just saying though, it's. The real reason is because people are just desperate to beat Bitcoin somehow in this.
- [22:19]
David Young
I think the real reason is that, I mean, it's, I see it as like the flip side of the tokenization theme. Like we've talked about tokenization here for ad vanitum and you know, it's, it's important because, you know, we just talked about, hey, where we want to tokenize and put like OpenAI on chain or SpaceX on chain. But equally Wall street wants to put tokens on equity. And so we're seeing the tokenization of equity. They're doing the equitization of tokens. I think they're just like all parts of the same theme.
- [22:51]
Scott
I mean, David Bailey said that on some podcast. He basically said, hey, we used to pretend that tokens weren't securities and now we're just taking a bunch of securities and making them trade like tokens. That's exactly what you said, and that's correct, hence my comparison to ICOs. But I don't know, it just feels like unless you're an early investor in one of these, which is who always profits, I don't see how at the end of it, you're the one who wants to buy the shares of this stuff. MicroStrategy I do get, because of the wide moat, which you said. And I believe that Michael Saylor has a much broader plan to become a bitcoin financial institution. But the rest of them are like, we're going to do bitcoin products. Not even the rest of them. I'm just saying the newer ones that will come on. We're gonna do bitcoin products, but for now we're just buying bitcoin. Well, you can go buy Bitcoin. I just, it's still, it's logically, I just can't get there still. Maybe, maybe I'm, maybe I'm stuck, stuck in my ways here. So, Iago, you're gonna become a bitcoin treasury company and you get, you know.
- [23:55]
Yago
I don't know, maybe, maybe, maybe we need to find another, another token to tokenize, right? Let's, let's find something that no one's thought of yet. I think, I think basically what's going to happen is more or less that, right? The new projects, the new sort of companies that are offering this kind of offering are going to have to have some kind of twist on it in order to be able to just get attention. And so that's going to be other kinds of tokens. So we're going to continue to see this tokenization of tokens. And we'll also be trying to generate.
- [24:27]
David Young
Yield.
- [24:30]
Yago
Either by using the BTC as collateral or through some other means. Miners might have an interesting play here.
- [24:37]
Scott
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. The last thing I want to talk about before I let you guys go is that we actually got the launch of a sort of kind of Solana etf, which is the Solana Staking etf. So I'm not going to get into the nuance of it, but they basically found a creative way to get on the market without going through the entire SEC approval process for ETFs. And some of it is Solana staking. It's blended with other things, but 33 million in volume on the first day of trading, actually, according to Eric Balchunas. That's really, really, really impressive. Far out weighing The Solana Futures ETFs that have been launched at any point in their history. And he believes that this is showing some actual thirst or demand for products like this. And knowing this is a imperfect product, you have to wonder when a pure Ethereum staking ETF or Salana ETF comes out, what the demand will, will be like. I mean, David, are you guys watching these? Is it, you know, interesting to you?
- [25:40]
David Young
Yeah. And you know, like, as you kind of mentioned, these aren't necessarily the, the same as the existing ETFs. I think there was one person who actually said that you can't quite describe these as ETFs in the same way, but you know, like, good luck because that's what we're going to call them. I mean, like, but I think the interesting part is like, how efficient a vehicle for staking is this going to be? And like, what's going to happen to the existing crop of like eth ETFs for example, that are waiting to be converted into staking ETFs, which sounds like we may stop to wait until October before that actually happens. I think that this is going to be a good first step to actually seeing what the mechanics look like. Because I think we're still worried about. All right, what if like, you know, we need to withdraw? What if there's a mass, mass withdrawal event, for example, like, does this present a problem for these ETFs? I don't think that it's going to become a, a big issue. But at the same time, I think these are the kind of the things we gotta need to think about.
- [26:44]
Scott
Yaga, you think that we're gonna, as far as man for HBAR, staking ETFs or whatever, we're gonna get down the.
- [26:50]
Yago
Road because I think there's demand to create them. I don't know how much demand to buy them. They're that this. I think as far as I understand, this particular sort of quasi ETF has a million dollars in Seoul. That's not a lot. So people are going to try all kinds of things. I, I think, you know, the fact that it was traded heavily but that the AUM is low. I don't know that that's a particularly successful launch, but we'll see.
- [27:19]
Scott
Yeah, I guess we will. But as we talk about ETFs here, talk about successful BlackRock Bitcoin ETF drives more revenue than its S&P 500 fund. There's a signal of the thirst, at least for the bitcoin side once again. I mean, that's a pretty impressive stat here. And these things just keep on chugging along. David.
- [27:37]
David Young
Yeah, I mean, like they're charging 25 bips for the Ibit ETF versus like 3 bips for their S P ETF. So even though the S P, like it gets more in terms of AUM that they actually, or auc, whatever that they actually put in their, their coffers, like you can make a lot more off ibit, which was kind of the, the proposition. And I think that also no one understood how successful this was going to be if we did, like, obviously in this space. And Scott, I know, like, you're kind of more connected in terms of that traditional institutional side and their participation in the crypto space, but I absolutely think that this is part of the reason why we're seeing so much interest now for all the other stuff in the space, the equitization of tokens that we were talking about earlier because we saw how successful ETFs were. And I think a lot of people on Wall street want a piece of that now. And so that's why Circle is really popular when they ipoed. This is why MicroStrategy is doing better than the MAG7. So I think that this is part of why more and more people are coming off the sidelines and getting into the space.
- [28:43]
Scott
I'll go. Final thoughts.
- [28:44]
Yago
Bitcoin and crypto are a miracle for banks in the financial industry. They're making more money off of this than anything else.
- [28:50]
Scott
I wish I still had the article pulled up because we ran out of time, but so is Donald Trump. There's a big article that came out that was like this guy was totally screwed. And then they found crypto and they're no longer a real estate company, they're a crypto company and they've made hundreds of million dollars. But we'll talk about that on another day. David Yago, thank you guys both so much for joining everybody. Give them a follow down in the description. Appreciate it, guys. Have a good one.
- [29:13]
Yago
Cheers.
- [29:14]
Scott
All right, now we got the chart guys here to talk about the markets. Jobs report came in, saw this kind of little wobble and then bitcoin at least bounced right back up. I haven't even looked. I guess we're opening right now.
- [29:29]
Chart Guy
Yeah, market's still really strong. I mean we're seeing perfect, beautiful rotation. You know, we had semiconductors leading the way and then they pulled back for just one day. And while that happens, healthcare shoots up, consumer staples shoot up. It's just exactly what bulls want to see in terms of healthy rotation. And so The S&P 500 has a higher low every day for the last two weeks. Pretty much what I'm watching on bitcoin right now is this four hour chart. And we had 108 to 109 as a very tough resistance zone for three weeks. And we got over it yesterday. And so far this back test is going very well. This is exactly what the bulls want to see, a resistance level. You get over it and now it acts as support. So that's the second hold of it since yesterday. And you know, if we keep holding that level, we're going all time highs. So that's a great initial response here. And just, just patiently waiting again. You know, last week there was so much confidence in the broader market where, you know, the Nasdaq and everything said it's bull time again, we're going to all time highs. And so that instantly makes me look to be bullish everything. And okay, bitcoin's knocking on the door of all time highs. Focus on bitcoin and crypto stocks. And after one day drop, that said, we have to be a little bit patient now it's back to maybe we get an exciting long holiday week. The market's closed today at 1pm and we've got three and a half weekend days. Let's see if the bulls can get something going in a lower liquidity environment.
- [30:55]
Scott
What else are you looking at?
- [30:57]
Chart Guy
Still watching those bitcoin related stocks? I mean, well, this was actually eth, you know, bmnr Again, just the same theory of just jumping around to these, these stocks and you know, you get Tom Lee plus crypto. You know, he's going to be on CNBC. This thing ran 500 in two days. And again it just goes back to what we were talking about, where this is where the opportunity is for trading. And you know, I don't, I, I think most alts are not going to run 500% in, you know, months. And here we have a name going 500% in two days. So it just shows the thirst. And here we are testing the hive yesterday as we speak, it's holding these Gains and you know, then you got the miners, you know, CLSK breakout yesterday, riot. These names have been very quiet, but they're hitting multi month highs as well. It's just a big, you know, I just imagine the ocean tides of capital sloshing around and it's, it's in these crypto stocks. You know, I paid attention yesterday. Altcoins did lead the bitcoin solid bull move. So, okay, I'm keeping an eye on things, you know. And again, the biggest thing for me is it's the names that are closest to all time highs, that don't have years of overhead, bag holder supply, that don't have, you know, a massively increased coin supply versus four years ago. Those are the names to be focusing on. And you look at something like hype. Hype is holding on. I don't know anything about hype fundamentally, but it's holding on way better than all these other altcoins. It's, it's up near its all time high. These are the kinds of names you want to be focusing on because big money wants to be able to push things easily. And the reason BMNR runs so hard is you can push it 50% after hours in a no liquidity environment. And again, there's just not a ton of altcoins that meet that criteria.
- [32:43]
Scott
Yeah, okay. I keep saying these are just the altcoins of 20, 25.
- [32:48]
Chart Guy
Altcoins will go up. I'm not saying they won't go up.
- [32:50]
Scott
I'm just saying that this is where the action is. I mean, zero question about it. So obvious.
- [32:55]
Chart Guy
And then, you know, maybe you get some altcoins going a couple hundred percent when it is time for altcoins and that'll be great. But again, I just don't think we see anything like 2021 when, when everything's in blue sky and doesn't have that overhang of supply.
- [33:10]
Scott
Yeah. You look at anything else? I just opened the iron chart because I hold that. I've had a bunch of friends who keep asking me to have room to run.
- [33:16]
Chart Guy
Wow. Yes, it does.
- [33:18]
Scott
Yeah, that's a piece that looks pretty good. My friend was asking me at like nine, he's like, I've been in this a long time. I don't know. I saw, I was like, I think this is going to go wild.
- [33:27]
Chart Guy
Yeah, getting, getting over 16 was big. I do have to push back against one of your prior guests. The blasphemy over the Saxop.
- [33:35]
Yago
Yes.
- [33:36]
Chart Guy
I can't be associated.
- [33:37]
Scott
I love saxophone.
- [33:38]
Chart Guy
Saxophone's one of the Best instruments. I saw Steel pulse last night, 50 year anniversary reggae tour, and the saxophone killed it. So I just don't want to be associated with Iago in any way with that blasphemy.
- [33:53]
Scott
I like saxophone. I played saxophone in the middle school band. So I'm basically professional at this point. All right, man. Anything else?
- [34:01]
Chart Guy
That's. I mean, there's plenty of things I'm watching, you know, quantum picking back up. Just. Just bullish, just bullish until we get a clear. You know, I see people trying to pick tops and we're overextended and euphoria. It's nice to be aware of those things. But again, it's just always price action and trends and. And literally the S P 500 and the NASDAQ have not had anything bearish happen on the daily chart in two and a half months. @ this point, not even close to something bearish happening. So just ride that momentum because we are clearly in a. A euphoria building environment. And that's when, you know, we. We look to add on higher lows and, and look to ride the momentum until it clearly shifts.
- [34:38]
Scott
Yeah, totally agree. All right, man. Thank you so much as always. We'll see you next week, guys. Give chart guys a follow, as we always say. And we will be back next time tomorrow, Friday, five. Thanks, man. Have a good one.
- [34:50]
Chart Guy
See ya.
- [34:52]
Scott
Let's do. That's dope.