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- [00:01]
Scott
Now, but bitcoin is officially breaking out. Has broken above 88,804American dollars, which was the line in the sand for bitcoin to make a higher high. For those who chart bitcoin or any other asset, a series of lower highs and lower lows is considered a bearish trend which we have had since the highs around $109,000. Well now Bitcoin is officially working. Still need to see a close. But working on the high with a close above 88,804 on the daily, that's also a close above the 200mA. We've already launched off the 50mA. And yesterday there was a breakthrough of descending resistance which was very key on extremely increasing volume to align with that. We also have the fact that the ETF's over, I believe $300 million in inflows yesterday. So the ETF's giving us a hint for once as to what's happening with price. We've seen steady outflows for months at a time with very brief periods of inflows. Well, yesterday was the largest inflow in that period by many, many multiples. Things looking very, very good for bitcoin in my opinion. Things looking very, very bad for gold. Looks like it's putting in a top here if you take a look at the charts. And so I think we might be seeing the grand rotation. And we certainly can make the argument that bitcoin is largely decoupled from the stock market, doing its own thing, starting a new bullish trend. Hooray for us. Christian, go ahead.
- [01:42]
Christian
Yeah, everything looks a lot better since the last time we spoke. I know that there was a lot of uncertainty in the air and, you know, and for good reason too. There's a lot to be observing at this time. But first and foremost, thanks guys for having me back here. You know, last I was here, we were talking a little bit about some of these early stages of the global shift. And in terms of global trade being a little bit more than just tariffs, where trade dynamics, dollar dominance, long standing economic assumptions, and a little back and forths too between what we should do about Jerome Powell. I know everybody has a different opinion there, but what's interesting here, guys, is, and I think we're all seeing it, is how bitcoin has been moving in contrast to the Nasdaq and in recent sessions where tech sold off hard, we saw bitcoin initially flirting with that type of correlation. Now we're seeing a pretty clear divergence in behavior. That kind of differentiation looks really bullish to say the least. And the technicals are backing that up. As of today, their RSI for Bitcoin was sitting around 68.5, approaching overbought, but still obviously leaving room for upward movement. And that's backed up by the fact that the MACD was seeing a crossover with that going over the signal line. Guys, the. Mr. The MVRV ratio is 2.1, which is clearly telling us that Bitcoin is trading at a very healthy premium over its realized value. And it's a very sign, it's a very strong sign in my opinion, of good market sentiment. So this is all very, very meaningful. This is very uncharted territory. You know, the thesis of bitcoin originally being a hedge against fiat instability, it's being tested in real time for the first time, truly. And so far it's holding up. This isn't obviously the parabolic price action I think we wanted to see in 2025, but given the circumstances, we're definitely nowhere near that panic environment anymore. That's just my personal opinion. I think this is looking quite good. I was feeling good about bitcoin in the last space. I'm feeling even better now. So really, really looking forward to what we see moving forward, guys.
- [03:57]
Scott
Dave, I want you to take a look real quickly before you jump in at the chart that I just posted above because we have these endless debates and conversations on Macro Monday and here about the correlation of Bitcoin to the Nasdaq. There's a chart I pulled up that is Bitcoin versus Big Tech. It's Bitcoin divided by the Nasdaq. Do those two things look like they're correlated to you?
- [04:20]
Dave W
Hold on, I'm trying to pull it up on my computer.
- [04:24]
Scott
Spoiler. Bitcoin is about to make another all time high against the NASDAQ historically and continues to push wildly up into the Right.
- [04:33]
Dave W
Yeah, I mean, look, obviously you're setting me up in the right way. I will go so far as to say two things. We are not out of the woods yet. Bitcoin is up today, correlated almost exactly with risk assets and actually outperforming gold by almost exactly the same amount as the, the NASDAQ's relief rally is. I've often told people, I will continue to tell people that Tuesday often reverses Monday and the real trend you see happens on Wednesday. And I know that sounds like a kind of a trite thing, like, you know, like a five day week matters in crypto, you know.
- [05:13]
Scott
Dave, not to interrupt, but I saw literally the data on that and even in the Great Recession, if you bought stocks every single Tuesday and sold them at night, you made money in the worst drawdowns we've seen in the stock market by simply buying Tuesday morning and selling Tuesday night.
- [05:28]
Dave W
So I'm nowhere near as giddy as others would might be. But I do think I will say this, I said it yesterday, I'll say it again. I think yesterday's price action shows the underlying fundamentals of bitcoin buyers being patient being there and the sellers starting to get exhausted. And the decoupling yesterday is very significant in my opinion. I think today it's like, well, okay, risk on markets are up, people are buying. The only reason why it matters so much is there was a ton of people, a lot of them on this space and a bunch of other spaces crowing about how they couldn't wait to short bitcoin at 88. And so I don't know if they actually implemented that. It does not look like they've been stopped out yet because we've not seen a parabolic move. There's. This is not a short squeeze. This is a, this is a very orderly small increase in bitcoin. This is nothing like the kind of rally that can happen when the shorts capitulate. So the real question is at what point do they capitulate or do they based on thinking that, well, you know, let's give it a day and let's take some losses because hopefully these people are smart enough not to have extreme leverage. But all the other metrics, you know, funding rates, etc. Etc. Don't look like it's not euphoric. It's not even close. We might be happy, but that's more relief. And the thing is that bear market rallies can be strong. And the question is, do people get back to the position they really want to be at? Some of us are not leveraged and they're sleeping like a baby every night when bitcoin was trading in the high 70s. So here it's a different story. But no, I don't think we're out of the woods, but I do think that the trend is our friend at this point, Jonathan.
- [07:17]
Jonathan
Speaking of the shorts there, Dave, over the last hour, 39.05 million in short positions in crypto have been liquidated in the last 24 hours. It's around 300 million, mostly to the short side, 172 million. But going back to what Christian said about the MVRV ratio for bitcoin, the if people are looking at this and going well, when do altcoins move? Who the hell knows? But the MVRV ratios, the sopr, whatever metric you want to use to measure altcoins, especially Ethereum. I mean, actually, Ethereum is a horrible representative of the altcoin market. It's like the biggest loser. Everything has been sitting at a level where nobody has been buying. Everybody's been selling at a loss, but nobody's even really selling anymore either. But it's been stuck in the doldrums forever. It's not going to take much to flip the script. And, and on our stock Twits app with our sentiment data, the. It's been very interesting watching the message volume, the participation rate and the amount of bullish measurements and message volume on, on the stock Twits app that has been slowly creeping up the last three weeks, especially in the defi space. And it's going to be very interesting to see if, if how much of a leading indicator that is for if. If there is another eventual breakup for altcoins. Because let's face it, they. It's like they were walking up the stairs behind bitcoin holding two pallets of water and somebody pushed them over and they just kept falling down the stairs and nobody's helped pick them up yet.
- [08:54]
Scott
Yeah, altcoins have been in a very long standing bear market here, no question. But we can argue that bitcoin is still in a bull market, but altcoins writ large. I'm sure there's exceptions, but have been in a bear. David, go ahead.
- [09:09]
David G
Yeah, thanks. No, we, we think that both coins are going to have their day in the sun, certainly. I think that you've got major shifts taking place right now. I'd like to look at that chart that you put up earlier. If we were to try to price bitcoin in gold, because I have that.
- [09:29]
Scott
As well, I can, I can throw it up in a second.
- [09:31]
David G
Yeah, because I'm thinking that, you know, central banks are buying gold, they're not buying bitcoin yet. And I think as a result, you know, everybody right now is kind of caught up in this whole move away from the US Dollar and US Dollar denominated assets. And you know, anything that gets priced in multiple currencies, whether it's gold, whether it's bitcoin, you know, whether it's commodities, you know, all like good. All look like good places to be right now.
- [10:04]
Scott
Yeah, I'm pulling up that chart. Christian, go ahead.
- [10:07]
Christian
Yeah, I wanted to speak to what Dave and Jonathan kind of added on here. You know, first and Foremost, I want to clarify, I, I, I don't think we're, you know, out of the, the woods here at all. I, I agree with you on that sentiment and I think that the visual that Jonathan presented with the altcoin market is kind of brilliant because, you know, I think it actually reinforces the point I was earlier talking about, which is, you know, we see the alt space, it's still very much so trading like it has in past cycles. Momentum up sharp, sharp rejections down with really fragile liquidity. But bitcoin's price action lately has been a lot more methodical. No parabolic blow off, no euphoric volume spikes, just quiet accumulation. And even when the risk assets are choppy. To me, I far prefer seeing this because what it suggests is we have a little bit more of a base and I think that's the problem right now that altcoins really have to build upon, which is a lack thereof of that foundation or needing to rebuild it because as Jonathan put it, they've been shoved off the pillar, has been knocked down. So no, I don't think we're seeing a full decoupling from macro just yet, but we are seeing bitcoin start to behave like the rest of crypto and more or less like its own, in its own lane. And I think this divergence is really important, especially considering it is the blue chip to be discussed, especially in a market where, you know, our structural confidence is still pretty fragile. So I just wanted to quickly clarify. I don't think we're out of the woods just yet. I don't think we are seeing the absolute decoupling. I think that if we were to witness some sort of shift in that type of, in that type of trend, this is exactly the type of economical market that we possibly see it in. If there is anything to be given to original thesis is surrounding bitcoin.
- [12:11]
Scott
Yeah, my argument wouldn't be that we are decoupling. It would be that it's an uncorrelated asset. We've always been decoupled and that's what I've always said. So yes, of course there are moments when we trade like the other assets. But take a look at those charts above Bitcoin versus nasdaq. Those would, that would be a flat line if they were correlated or much more of one. And I just posted Bitcoin versus Gold and if it was trading like digital gold, that would be a flat line and not as volatile as any other chart. It's, you know, it's, if you look at it on the long term, to me, it's never been a correlated asset except for, you know, brief periods. But everybody has their own opinion, certainly. Dwayne, how are you looking at this through your lens?
- [12:53]
Dwayne
Hey, good morning. So, you know, just to echo some of the comments here, it is a tale of inflows to me. We've seen, you know, like. Like you were saying, we've seen inflows return to Bitcoin ETFs here. The same with gold. We've seen. We've seen inflows hit their highest point since, I believe, I think it was like 2020. So at least in my view, if gold does pull back here, that's fine. We're basically seeing some good things here that we wanted to see where some investors are moving into Bitcoin as well as a safe haven asset. If you want to compare. If you want to be bold enough to compare Bitcoin to some other commodities like, say, copper, because I was looking at this as well. Copper was in a bit of a downturn here. It came close to the psychological point of around $4, I believe it was on April eight. And now we're back in business, so to speak. We're around $4.80. So I think what we have currently is, yes, things are still choppy, but we have an interim reprieve from all of the talk of tariffs and all of these things. If we look at copper, if we look at bitcoin, if we look at gold, it's telling us that there are hopes for the economy, for China and for some other emerging markets to continue to persist and, you know, do relatively well in this choppy market. But at the same time, the level of uncertainty with geopolitics, with the economy, et cetera, are still prevalent as well. So at least in my view, we could see these assets. So we're talking gold, silver, copper, bitcoin, all continue to rise well into the end of 2025, 2026, including, obviously, the choppiness and some significant pullbacks. But if you want to stay in the game and continue these, as long as I think that's the right move forward, at least in my view.
- [14:55]
Scott
Derek.
- [14:59]
Derek
Scott. Hey, everyone. Yeah, I just wanted to chime in there and just follow that up with two kind of tweets that. That caught my attention. Matt Hugan said that bitcoin's rallying because they broke the economy, and the way they'll fix the economy will make bitcoin rally harder. And then I was also just looking at another chart that bitcoiner That I follow shared with Bitcoin's sort of correlation to the M2 monetary supply and how high that has climbed. I think that's a big reason why, why gold is at the all time high that it's at, right? It just hit three and a half thousand dollars for the first time. And like, from all the coverage that we've been doing at Cointelegraph and all the conversations I've been having in the last two to three weeks, I had two great conversations with Adam back and he was really just, you know, like really banging the drum about people starting to really understand the nature of the financial system, to really take stock of the inflationary environment that we're in. The sheer amounts of uncertainty there is with the global economy, Trump's tariffs, the impact that's happening, having on companies. And people are just looking for safe havens, right? The old go to is gold and that's why we've got an all time high. And I think, you know, bitcoin was shaky in the last three or four weeks, but it's definitely going through some sort of decoupling as everyone's calling. I mean, like, I'm pretty sure that's going to be trending on X in the next 12 hours, but really what it is, and you summed it up perfectly, Scott, is that bitcoin is independent. It's something unlike anything else, right? It's, it's structurally differentiated and people are starting to realize that. And I think slowly but surely towards, you know, the end of 2025, there will be a lot more upside purely because more and more people are just doing their research, understanding the fundamentals of bitcoin, understanding how the protocol works, why it's valuable. At the end of the day, never forget it's just peer to peer electronic money. No one can stop us from transferring value between ourselves. No one can stop us. And that for me is the most important thing. I don't really look at the price too much, of course it's interesting on a day to day, but I really try to focus on the philosophical side of bitcoin. It's the best money we've had. It's a beautiful piece of technology, right? And the more and more people appreciate that and understand that, the more and more valuable it will become. And I think the prices that we're talking about now are going to become irrelevant in two to five or ten years time just because people will, more and more people will just understand what bitcoin is and then it is going to be really understood as digital gold. Great store of value, but also a peer to peer money network. Right. We can transfer value to and from each other and that's the most important thing. So I think we're just seeing that play out, but we're in slow motion right now because of the way the world works. But as we zoom out, we just see this huge price appreciation because people understand what it is. And at some stage Dave said that central banks hold gold. He's 100% correct. But soon, sooner rather than later, some of them are going to start acquiring and holding bitcoin. And when that, if and when that happens, $100,000 per bitcoin is not even going to be a fraction of what it is in my opinion. In my opinion. And the price to me doesn't matter that much. It's a freedom technology.
- [18:25]
Scott
Good morning, Carlo.
- [18:27]
Carlo
Good morning, Scott. Well, I'll tell you what, I cannot disagree with anything that was just posited and to kind of troll Peter Schiff a little bit. I think that gold has been the knee jerk reaction to dollar volatility and to concerns about the debasement of the dollar. But I think even the banks know that its tail is coming to an end and everything is going digital. And I think we're going to see more. And we're already seeing it. I mean, Coinbase is going to be applying to become a bank. We've got several other major players that want to get exposure to on chain banking capabilities. Gold is not the most liquid thing to move around. I mean, it's just obvious that it is an antiquated system, albeit, yes, it's still a safe haven. But is what we're seeing right now simply just a reflexive thing that people do, especially people who don't yet feel comfortable handling digital assets. And I think as more institutions take on these assets, we're going to see a tremendous pivot from gold to cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin. I think it's inevitable. And I have to agree with you, I think to a certain extent the top is in for gold because it was the first reaction to the panic about tariffs and the instability of the dollar. But I think as people really start to zoom out and compare charts and see where the ball is going, you know, you always want to, when you're playing sports, you want to go where the ball is going. You don't want to be caught flat footed. And I think sitting in gold right now, maybe, maybe essentially getting caught flat.
- [20:10]
Scott
Footed, I guess the only question will be whether gold is catching the bid from central banks who are going to continue buying regardless of price. And that could definitely violate my gold. Top is in. But I think from a retail perspective, I think you're definitely correct. Ryan, go ahead.
- [20:30]
Ryan
Yeah, I, I honestly don't think people know what bitcoin is still. I, I think on a, on a grand picture of it, I think they're just looking at it as a speculative asset and they're looking at it potentially as a hedge against the dollar. But, you know, and when markets go up, everyone's like, oh, yeah, I knew it was going to go up. I knew. I believed in bitcoin the whole time. And when markets are down, they're like, oh, bitcoin's dead. The bull market's over and people are just very, very unstable with a lot of this stuff. The reality is the pullback with bitcoin seemed to be greatly related to the tariffs and a lot of political pressures, but the technology is still sound. People still don't really understand what bitcoin is or what the at scale power of bitcoin is when it relates to electricity grids and balancing energy. I think we're still in a very speculative market where people are still guessing on what to invest in. And I think bitcoin always leads the charge. So as bitcoin starts surging back, I think we're going to see Ethereum follow suit and then we're going to have alt season all over again where people are just going to be throwing stupid money around going right into the fall. I still think bitcoin is going to top out around maybe 130, 140 max, September, October. And I think that's going to be our bull run for this cycle. And we might push higher in 2026 with a lot more institutions and governments getting involved. But I think people are still very cautious with the current global economics.
- [22:08]
Scott
David.
- [22:10]
Dave W
David or Dave?
- [22:12]
Scott
You know what? I didn't think about the double Dave. I was going with David. So we'll go David, then Dave. Okay, David G, then Dave W. We're.
- [22:21]
David G
Liking the double Dave here. Thank you very much.
- [22:23]
Scott
My wife literally has three best friends that are all named Ashley. It's insane. It's the most like, American, you know, millennial, whatever. I mean, to have. I've had, I've been in a car with three girls named Ashley in the back seats and said.
- [22:38]
Ryan
And they all have to be spelled differently.
- [22:40]
Scott
No, they're all the same. But yes, yeah, we have Ashley with two E's. I. E. Yeah, of course.
- [22:45]
David G
So you had an Ashley foursome. Wow.
- [22:48]
Jonathan
It's very true.
- [22:50]
Scott
Yeah, guys.
- [22:52]
David G
Anyway, okay, very interesting chart that I saw here earlier, which was to say that, you know, since Bretton woods back in 1971 took the US dollar off the gold standard, you know, gold in real, real terms is up 900%. Obviously Bitcoin wasn't around back in 1971. But I'm just trying to put this all in context of saying, you know, we have various moments in time where you've had geopolitical shifts. You know, we've all talked about the fact that you have the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs. You know, you had the multilateral United Nations, World Trade Organization, IMF, World bank, set of organizations established after World War II. They've been around for 80 years, but we're just throwing that all over. So in the process of overturning of large geopolitical policy frameworks, people are going to go to what they know. So I like bitcoin. I'm just buying more in the midst of all this. But I think gold is what people are going to go to because they're familiar. And I don't think the gold has necessarily topped out. It is now sort of breaking out into new territory if you look at it over a longer term time frame. But, you know, we live in unusual times.
- [24:12]
Scott
We do. It was one time, David, one time.
- [24:22]
Dave W
So two points. One on gold, one on bitcoin. The gold point is there's no effing way. It's, it's, it's, it may be reaching a short term top, but that's what I meant.
- [24:33]
Scott
I didn't mean of like a forever top.
- [24:35]
Ryan
Yes.
- [24:35]
Dave W
I mean gold is going. Look, there were some, I was on the spaces last night and you know, dark side, who some of you may know was, you know, he's a little bit more, more out there conspiracy tinfoil hat than me. But there's a lot of logic. He thinks that a large part of this gold move is geopolitical and it's Chinese buying and others dumping U.S. treasuries for gold. And honestly, that would make an enormous amount of sense if we think about it from an economic war perspective. If that is true, we're not even close to a top because there are gold bugs out there that will tell you all sorts of things. But that said, that's a limited thing. Gold is going to eventually be demonetized by bitcoin. It's going to take a lot of time. The key is Gold's had 5,000 years of a network effect. Google, Facebook, whatever, they have 25 years of network effects. Bitcoin, maybe you could say the network effect really started in the last five, six years when Paul Tudor Jones came out there. I mean, bitcoiners, otherwise it was a closed community, but it's just getting started. And that network effect is why financial models like Mike McGlone's technical analysis of bitcoin dropping completely ignores the network effect of bitcoin, which is unfolding before our eyes.