The Wolf Of All Streets

Episode: Bitcoin Indicator Flips Bearish For First Time Ever! Should We Be Concerned?

Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Mike, Dave, Larry Lepard
Date: February 16, 2026

Episode Overview

On a special holiday “Macro Monday,” Scott Melker and his panel—regulars Dave and Mike, with Larry Lepard filling in—tackle a jam-packed episode amid swirling bearish signals for Bitcoin. The discussion weaves through macroeconomics, the accuracy of jobs data, liquidity, the implications of AI disruption, commodity and metals markets, and spirals into a fiery debate over Bitcoin's future after a key sentiment indicator turns bearish for the first time ever. The episode’s candle is burned at both ends—full of sharp disagreement, humorous jabs, and hard-hitting macro analysis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Macroeconomic Landscape & Bearish Signals

• Bearish Indicators Everywhere?

  • Mike notes "metals just gone up too much" and sees a peak in Bitcoin, tying commodity peaks to a potentially overextended equity market.

    “[Commodities] have gone up too much. Metals look to me like cryptos did last year… Bitcoin’s peaked around 96 on the year.” (C, 01:32)

  • Equities remain strong on retail flows, but cracks are appearing: “We've got the strongest equity retail flows on record in history… Prices are rolling over.” (C, 09:29)

• Job Data Revision: Do We Trust the Numbers?

  • The group laments another downward revision in US jobs data:

    “Why do we even look at job numbers on a monthly basis if they're completely wrong?” (A, 02:17)

  • Dave: Explains how gig economy jobs and birth/death models distort BLS numbers, making job stats unreliable.

    “They can't measure the fact that people have two or three jobs … The statistics get all, get, get screwed up…” (D, 03:12)

  • Larry: Is blunt in his distrust of government stats:

    “The bigger thing that I think happened… is that we all just realized that we're being ruled by a bunch of demonic, evil fucks, so to speak.” (B, 07:14)

2. Liquidity, Deflation vs. Inflation, and the Big Print

• Awaiting the Stimulus Hammer

  • Dave: Predicts, “The back half of this year is going to have an enormous amount of stimulus.” (D, 05:33)
  • Larry: Argues policy response is inevitable:

    "They've got to, you know, inject a bunch of money into the economy this summer to try and make things look good." (B, 13:52)

  • Mike: Predicts deflation will force the Fed's hand:

    “CPI is going to be negative or zero in about a year with crude oil going to 40…” (C, 20:00)

• AI as Macro Disruptor

  • Scott: “We’re going to see an absolute... destruction of jobs, but I think renaissance of productivity as a result.” (A, 14:19)
  • Dave: Nuances the debate, arguing persistent monetary inflation will continue to fuel asset inflation. “Consumer inflation from all of that, those are all deflationary for consumers. At the same time... a massive increase in asset inflation, which is why the S&P is at all time highs.” (D, 15:29)
  • Larry: Emphasizes the monetary response will outpace deflationary AI effects.

    "The policy response is going to be way over the top… we've kind of got a situation where monetary chaos is taking place." (B, 31:03)

3. Metals, Commodities, and Market Cycle Arguments

• Gold & Silver: Room to Run, or Peaks Near?

  • Mike is bearish, calling for significant tops:

    “Gold and silver this year will put in peaks that'll last for decades.” (C, 29:10)

  • Larry forcefully disagrees, predicting a “fiat currency beginning to fail” environment:

    “Silver is going to somewhere between 200 and 500 and gold is going to somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000…” (B, 27:05)

  • Dave brings nuance, separating gold as equilibrium to fiat printing, while silver could see more structural outperformance due to industrial demand and electrification (D, 23:17).

• The Danger of Short-Term Thinking

  • Panelists debate timing and scale, with Dave warning, “Most of crypto is going to go to zero. I actually agree with you [Mike].” (D, 41:07)

4. Bitcoin in the Spotlight: Bearish Indicator, Sentiment Panic

• Bearish Signal—Should We Be Concerned?

  • Scott highlights: “We've never had a red January and February in the history of bitcoin. But... it’s all the noise on Twitter…” (A, 34:31)
  • Dave: Stresses sentiment is at historic fear:

    “That is not tops. That's bottoms.” (D, 36:29)

• The Big Bitcoin Debate: Bubble or Foundational Asset?

  • Mike turns apocalyptic:

    “You're a classic bear market. You're denying it. You're trying to buy every dip. ...The biggest trade in history, the bubble is bursting.” (C, 39:16)

  • Larry fires back:

    “Got a video of this because we're gonna shove this up your ass in a year or two. That was one of the dumbest.” (B, 40:40)

  • Tempers boil, and Larry ultimately leaves the panel after repeated interruptions and conflation of bitcoin with the broader crypto market.

• Panel Consensus (Kind Of):

  • Dave and Scott repeatedly emphasize: bitcoin and “crypto” cannot be conflated; bitcoin is a unique, limited-supply asset.

    “Bitcoin will either fail or it will succeed. It's a... binary… If it succeeds… bitcoin is many, many, many multiples of today's price.” (D, 41:10)

5. Dutch Unrealized Gains Tax: Policy Madness

• The panel reacts in disbelief to a Dutch plan for a 36% tax on unrealized gains:
  • Scott: “This is absolute insanity... you will pay $360 in taxes whether you sold that or not...” (A, 48:19)
  • Dave: “I can only think of this as the dumbest thing I've seen... The ability to accumulate wealth there is...” (D, 48:43)
  • Mike: “You just don't buy that asset when you have a rule like that.” (C, 51:27)
• Macro Impact: They discuss the likely increased migration of capital (and people) to lower-tax jurisdictions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

General Sentiment & Market Outlook

• “We all just realized that we're being ruled by a bunch of demonic, evil fucks, so to speak.”
  — Larry (07:14)
• “The strongest equity retail flows on record in history... prices are rolling over. It’s classic peak.”
  — Mike (09:29)
• “The transition is going to take a while and we’re so overdue for just a little bit of normal reversion... This is an awesome risk-taking environment. Seize the moment. Don’t be caught offside.”
  — Mike (21:32)
• “The policy response is going to be way over the top.”
  — Larry (31:03)

On Bitcoin & Crypto

• “Bitcoin will either fail or it will succeed... If it succeeds... bitcoin is many, many, many multiples of today's price. And that is fact.”
  — Dave (41:10)
• “You're denying it. You're trying to buy every dip. ...The biggest trade in history, the bubble is bursting.”
  — Mike (39:16)
• “Got a video of this because we're gonna shove this up your ass in a year or two.”
  — Larry (40:40)

On Policy & Migration

• “Why are we all here in America? Our ancestors came over for a reason. Why are we all in Florida? There ain’t no taxes.”
  — Mike (52:14)
• “You cannot invest. You basically might as well not try. I mean, this is absolute insanity.”
  — Scott (48:22)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00-03:12 | Introduction & macro setup, bearish indicators | | 03:12-07:20 | Job numbers, gig economy, government statistics | | 07:20-09:29 | Public trust breakdown, Epstein files and market sentiment | | 09:29-14:19 | Equity flows, liquidity talk, “the big print” and policy rebranding | | 14:19-22:01 | AI’s impact, deflation vs. inflation debate, technology’s relentless advance | | 22:01-29:10 | Metals market: gold, silver, copper—runaway bulls or overdue crash? | | 29:10-36:26 | Inflation arguments, metals deep dive, bitcoin and sentiment | | 36:26-43:54 | Bitcoin vs. crypto, blowout debate, sentiment meltdown | | 43:54-47:05 | Tether’s dominance, the future of stablecoins, final blows in the bitcoin debate | | 47:05-56:27 | Dutch unrealized tax furor, migration, policy-driven market shifts | | 56:27-60:53 | Closing thoughts, reflections on debate, anger, and the market mood |

Tone & Dynamics

• The episode starts with customary straight-shooting macro analysis and quickly escalates into a heated, often personal debate, especially over the future of bitcoin.
• Humor and sarcasm break up the gravity, but real personal tension surfaces at the height of the bitcoin bubble vs. store-of-value argument.
• Scott remains composed, acting as mediator through the climax, and tries to end on a note of camaraderie despite the episode’s fireworks.

Summary Takeaway

This Macro Monday dives deep into why bearish indicators are flashing for bitcoin, wrestling with where we are in the market cycle, how AI and tech-driven deflation is running headlong into inevitable government intervention, and why “the big print” might be the only card left. The panel offers strong, contemporary macroeconomic analysis, but the episode is most memorable for its high-intensity disagreement over bitcoin’s destiny—making it a must-listen for anyone interested in how market veterans are really feeling mid-2026.

Note: Advertising, intros, and outros are omitted in this summary. All timestamps (MM:SS) refer to podcast content only.