The Wolf of All Streets

Episode: “Bitcoin Inflows EXPLODE As The Fed & Wall Street Adoption Continues! What's Next?”

Host: Scott Melker
Date: December 8, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the state of global markets as Bitcoin continues to see record inflows amidst expectations of Federal Reserve policy shifts and ongoing Wall Street adoption. Led by Scott Melker, and joined by veteran analysts Mike McGlone and Dave, the discussion covers inflation, Fed pivot prospects, the role of gold and traditional markets, equity concentration, Bitcoin’s place in the macro landscape, and sentiment—tying all of these to broader questions about stimulus, speculation, and the future of value.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Inflation, Fed Policy, and Economic Regime Uncertainty

• Fed’s Next Move: The consensus is that inflation is falling and the market overwhelmingly expects a 25 basis-point rate cut in the upcoming meeting ([00:00–03:22], [08:53–11:12]).
  • Mike: “If they don't cut 25 basis points, I would estimate the stock market drops 3 to 5% in a heartbeat.” ([03:22])
  • Expectations of a “hawkish cut”—with dissent among Fed participants—could rattle risk sentiment.
• QE by Another Name: Discussion of “reserve management purchases” and whether the Fed will restart balance sheet growth under different terminology ([11:12–13:55]).
• Liquidity and Risk: The Fed is expected to inject liquidity “not as a fire hose, but a steady trickle,” unless a credit event arises ([13:55–14:01]).

2. Equity Markets: Fragility Beneath the Surface

• Market Concentration: Noticeable concern about the stock market’s rally being driven by a handful of mega-cap stocks—the “Mag 7”—leaving indices vulnerable ([26:29–28:13]).
  • Scott: "If you got the stock market this concentrated in just seven to 10 names… that could really drive a quick drawdown that people haven’t seen before." ([26:34])
• Sentiment Paradoxes: Large institutional players are still “risk on,” but both the stock and crypto markets show fear/extreme fear in retail sentiment trackers, creating a “contrarian” setup ([25:58–26:29]).

3. Gold, Silver, and Sound Money Narratives

• Gold’s Position:
  • Mike: Gold’s outperformance vs. S&P is signaling something’s wrong; but he warns it’s “stretched” and potentially entering decades-long sideways action ([00:26–02:28], [14:01–14:29], [14:29–15:40]).
  • Dave: Disagrees on gold being overstretched, points out the importance of adjusting for the money supply, arguing gold could go to $5,500, even $16,000 in certain historical contexts ([03:34–05:54]).
    • Quote: "Divide the whole damn thing by the number of dollars in circulation... then tell me that the chart looks stretched. Because it doesn't." — Dave ([03:34])
• Silver: Seen as a geopolitical tool (e.g., China), with price targets around $75–80 for this cycle ([05:54]).
• Nominal vs. Real Values: Strong debate on whether assets should be measured in nominal terms or adjusted for monetary inflation ([08:01–08:53]).
  • Quote: "People need to know what their actual asset is valued at today's dollars. They don't care about whether it's adjusted or not." — Scott ([08:15])

4. Bitcoin: Market Position, Psychology, and Institutional Adoption

• Fear Despite Inflows: Noted that Bitcoin sentiment has been in “two months of fear or extreme fear” even as technicals suggest a bottoming ([23:49–24:17]).
  • Dave: “I think we’ve bottomed. I think most technical… most KOLs [Key Opinion Leaders] are still cautious.”
• Correlation and Decorrelation:
  • Bitcoin and crypto have decoupled from equities recently; widespread agreement they’d only recouple with stocks during a mass sell-off ([44:54–46:28]).
  • Quote: “Bitcoin is not correlated to anything right now.” — Scott ([46:11])
• Wall Street Flows & Broadening Access:
  • Inflows remain strong due to rising institutional allocations, new ETF structures, and financial advisors recommending portfolio additions (not just MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor; big Ether buys too) ([36:36], [59:42]).
  • Quote: “People that are buying it are buying it because their financial advisors are starting to say… you should put… 4% of your portfolio into this asset because it could 10x…” — Dave ([36:36])
• Cycles & Myth-Busting:
  • Debate on “four-year cycle” theory: Dave challenges the narrative, calling out “intellectual dishonesty” among long-term bulls who expect cycle amplitudes to compress further ([58:15]).
  • Quote: "If the four year cycle narrative is indeed intact, and if indeed we have decreasing amplitude of bitcoin rises, then by definition it will never get to where it goes… those two statements cannot be reconciled." — Dave ([58:15])

5. Macro Risks, Stimulus, and Everything Bubble

• Intervention as Default: Widespread belief that any significant risk-off event in stocks will trigger “massive liquidity infusion” by global authorities ([28:13–30:31]).
  • Quote: "Is there any anybody out there who thinks that the government doesn’t pull out the plunge protection team... start buying bonds, buying stocks, buying futures?” — Dave ([28:13])
• Manipulation & Late-Stage Behavior:
  • Markets are now so “trained” to expect intervention that the need for support is as strong as the want—a hallmark of “late-stage Roman Empire” excess ([19:44], [61:01]).

6. Crypto Market Structure: Altcoins, Innovation, and Morale

• Speculation vs. Real Value:
  • Many altcoins have little to no sustainable economic foundation; broad altcoin underperformance is both a symptom and a signal of broader risk-off sentiment ([37:55], [43:47]).
  • Quote: "If you look at the top 200, I’d probably estimate 180 of them have lots of error there." — Dave ([43:47])
• Industry Morale & “Bottom Signals”:
  • Noted exodus of “true believers” from crypto, with even long-term advocates publicly calling it a scam—seen by panelists as a classic sign of bottoming in sentiment ([52:37–53:10]).
  • Quote: “That’s bear market bottom stuff.” — Mike ([52:55])
• Casino/Gambling Narrative:
  • Surging interest in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi is viewed as a symptom of economic desperation, not prosperity ([59:42–62:50]).
  • Quote: “When people start to wildly speculate, it’s not because they’re having fun, it’s because they’re feeling desperate…” — Scott ([59:42])

7. Long-Term Systemic Issues: Corruption, Fiat, and the Search for Alternatives

• Corruption & Late-Stage System Woes:
  • Extensive anecdotal discussion on corruption in politics, NGO campaign finance, and “death rattles” of the fiat system ([63:22]).
  • Quote: “That's late-stage Roman Empire stuff... and that's the kind of thing that tells me that the fiat system is having... these are the death rattles.” — Dave ([63:43])
• Investment Outlook:
  • Panelists agree that while there’s mounting evidence of systemic strain, policy responses guarantee more money printing—making it very hard to be “bearish in nominal terms” ([65:23]).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Asset Valuation:
  • Dave ([03:34]): “Divide the whole damn thing by number of dollars in circulation… then tell me that the chart looks stretched. Because it doesn’t… If you start looking at gold as percentage of total financial assets, the peak in 1980—we’re not even close to it.”
• On Stock Market Support:
  • Dave ([19:44]): “If you think Mike McGlone is the only human being who understands how important the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are to GDP, then you’re not paying attention. Everybody in the government understands that they need markets to stay up. Now when it goes from want to need, that should make everybody’s spidey senses go crazy…”
• On Bitcoin Sentiment:
  • Dave ([23:49]): “In two days, we will be at two months of fear or extreme fear on sentiment.”
• On Liquidity & Speculation:
  • Scott ([59:42]): “…When people start to wildly speculate, it's not because they're having fun, it's because they're feeling desperate and know that they're on a hamster wheel, that they can't win and they need to take bigger and bigger bets and risks to survive.”
• On Cycles and Intellectual Honesty:
  • Dave ([58:15]): "You cannot be long term bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and believe that the amplitudes of the four year cycles are decreased to this level... those two statements cannot be reconciled."

Key Timestamps

• 00:00–03:22: Opening thoughts on inflation, the Fed, and market expectations
• 05:54–08:53: Debate on gold’s valuation, importance of denominators for asset pricing
• 14:01–14:29: Gold/S&P 500 ratio at historic inflection; technical market summary
• 26:29–28:13: Discussion of equity market concentration and “contrarian” fear signals
• 36:36–37:55: Institutional flows into Bitcoin/Ether and shifting advisor attitudes
• 44:54–46:28: Correlation–decoupling between Bitcoin and traditional markets, and what it means at extremes
• 52:37–53:10: Industry morale and “bear market bottom” commentary as pundits exit
• 58:15: Cycle amplitude debate and calling out intellectual dishonesty in crypto analysis

Conclusion & Takeaways

• Markets are “priced for perfection”: Any unexpected policy or liquidity move could catalyze sharp drawdowns.
• Bitcoin remains at the intersection of macro risk, institutional adoption, and shifting sentiment.
• Speculation and excess in both crypto and equity markets are symptoms of systemic, late-stage fiat malaise—printing and interventions remain the only consistent response.
• Sentiment extremes, both euphoria and despair, are ripe for reversals as history has shown.
• Panelists forecast volatility ahead in both directions, with strong skepticism about easy, one-way bets in any asset class.

For listeners seeking actionable insight: Maintain humility, monitor the macro, and watch for both technical and emotional capitulation as signals of market turns—especially in environments as highly manipulated and sentiment-driven as today’s.