← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin Inflows SURGE Despite Market Sell Off! Shake Out Or New Lows Incoming?
01:02:48
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- [00:01]
A
Almost $800 million liquidated from DEGENS in the crypto market over the last 24 hours. Last week, bitcoin saw record inflows. Everyone's talking about Greenland. Yet silver continues to rise. We're going to unpack it all with guest Lawrence Lepard on macro Monday. Let's go.
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B
Let's do.
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A
Well, let's get to it. Thanks for joining us. Do you like Lawrence or Larry?
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B
No, I'm Larry to all you guys. I just.
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A
Yeah, that's what I thought. But, you know, it's, it's. Yeah. Being a major book author with, you know, hardly show respect from time to time. Mike, it's great that you're there. I guess the office closed today for MLK Day. You can hear us, right?
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B
I don't know. I can't hear Mike. Good morning.
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C
Hello.
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A
Yeah, Day off today, so obviously no morning meeting today. So let's, let's. I don't know where we want to start. Do we want to start with what's going on in the precious metals world? We want to start with the, you know, continuing, you know, deficits, all the other crap. Do I talk about Greenland? Where do you want to go? Larry, you're the guest. So what? Why don't you start this?
- [01:23]
B
Well, I don't know. I mean, we probably should talk. The precious metals. I mean, if you kind of want to look at a market where there's a lot of stuff going on and a lot of debate about what it is, that's probably the top. And that's an area I know a little bit about. So, you know, I can comment on it. Yeah, I'll give my perspective from what I've seen and then you guys can react. I'd like to know what Mike thinks too. I see it as the moves in gold and silver are really quite historic. I mean, kind of stunning. You know, silver up 150 plus percent last year, gold up 60%. And they seem to not be relenting. I mean, this morning, gold was up another 70 or 80, silver another three bucks. I mean, and I know a lot of people think, well, this looks like a bubble. It's the same as the Hunt Brothers and same as 2011. It's going to collapse. It's a parabola. And I don't really see it that way. I see it as actually, it's funny. People call this the monetary debasement trade. And I get anger. I react to that with, it's not a trade, guys. It's. It's a monetary debasement secular trend that's going to last for decades. And so, you know, I had some bitcoin friends saying, hey, should I short silver? It seems awfully overextended. And my reaction was, boy, you ought to be careful, because you don't really know where the top is, you know, and what's really going on. And this is true, and it wouldn't. The prices would not be doing what they're doing if this was not a fact, is that there's a scramble for physical silver. The, you can see the deliveries that are taken off of the, the Comex and how they've grown this past year. And then you can see the deliveries taken out of London, same story.
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A
They're large.
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B
I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but. And, you know, you can see the premiums people are paying overseas. I mean, the silver price in China and the silver price in Dubai are substantially higher than the Comex price, you know, I mean, like 10%, 8 to 10% higher. And so this, to me, indicates a real tightness in the silver market. Now, is it going to go on for forever? I don't know. But I, I do know that silver was suppressed for a long, long time, and that 50 was a top that held for, I don't know, 40, 50 years almost. And when you break through a top that's been held for, for that many years, you know, you don't just go up 50%, you can go up a lot. And, and that's kind of the process we're in. And to me, I mean, both of you, I think, will agree that this is all occurring against the backdrop of, you know, huge monetary debasement. It only looks like it's getting, going to get worse. I mean, oops. The most notable thing I've focused on is Trump's aggressiveness in so many areas. And you can debate the good and the bad of that. And I think there is some good and there's some bad, but one thing's for sure is none of this is free. You know, he said, you know, the defense budget has got to go from a trillion to 1.5 trillion. Well, okay, where's that going to come from? I think we all know the answer to the printing press. And so I think that's what the metals are reacting to. So I'll lead off with that and then let Mike weigh in.
- [04:11]
A
I mean, I, I just. It's funny when you watch the news flow, it's almost like if you watch the news that there are, there are two. There's Two news flows, they're equally insane. And I think most of the actual rational people have no idea what the hell's going on. It's, it's, it's crazy. I mean, Scott had a post a week ago saying, how could you know? If you showed the same exact video to 50 million people, 25 million will be definitive that someone in the government murdered, murdered another human being. And 25 million people will say that there was a crazy person trying to be, you know, trying to kill a law enforcement officer and he reacted in self defense.
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B
Exactly.
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A
But here's the problem. One, irrational people. If you, if you now, if you stripped it out and you tried to talk to people when, without their dopamine levels going, you just tried to talk to people analytically, what you'd end up with is under general. If, if Trump had, if the Trump name had nothing to do with it. If all you were talking about was just abstract. And we did this before we got to this hyper politicized era. And you said, hey, should people be trying to obstruct law enforcement from, from getting rid or take, you know, abducting criminals? And the answer is, and what would happen if you did that? You, you know the answer. And pretty much everyone would say, well, that would be bad. And on the other hand, if you said to people, could law enforcement officers be stopping people to ask them for their papers without, without any probable cause? What would, would that be reasonable? Or would ever. And everyone, and literally everybody would agree that, that neither of these things make sense yet. That's where we are. Now why do I mention this? I mention this because what is the dollar? The dollar is a piece of paper backed by what? Full faith and credit of the United States government. What happens when the majority of people, and we are way past the majority, have no respect for the government or fear what the government could be. Whether if you're a Republican, you're terrified of a President AOC or a President Newsom, and you think the whole thing's going to be a house of cards, and if you're a Democrat, you're terrified that President Trump, President Whoever Vance is going to have jackbooted thugs knocking down your door. And all of this is a wavering of confidence. And by the way, the same thing is happening throughout Western Europe. I mean UK is just even a bigger dumpster fire, et cetera. Entire west has a lack of confidence. And so all of that contributes. So that's the backdrop. Now that all said, we still have to trade this stuff. Are we still. And people Are, you know, so without giving anything to do about what's happening in the actual markets, I figured I'd let you go first, Mike, but you dropped off, so that's why I was filling the space. But. But that backdrop matters. So, Mike, you know, look, you know, here we are. We've been talking about silver since it first peaked its head above 70. We had the CME do what it normally would do to break the bubble. It obviously didn't work because we're now 13 above where it was with the CME. First hiked margin requirements and then did it again. What do you think is going. What are your people talking about?
- [07:34]
D
I appreciate the way you started off, Dave. You can't hear me. Yes, you're able to hear me now. Yeah, yeah, that's why I hopped off, because I had to reset my stream. But everything you described to me describe an environment of discombobulation. And the key thing that stands out is stock market volatility is too low for that environment. And one thing that I heard already this morning on TV is the first person to say, buy the dip. I love that. Next quotes we should be late. Waiting to hear is healthy correction in the stock market. We're so overdue for that. And the bottom line is, what we start off with, Larry, is we have the metals gone parabolic. And most notably led by silver. Silver's the devil's metal for a reason. For. So first, Dave, let's have some fun. Let's start out with the way I will short to you, silver right now, $1's worth at 93. And I'll bet to you by a year from now the price will be lower. The reason I say that is I'm just pointing out what happens when people say, oh, you're not focused on the fundamentals. What was the deficit in all the metals now, within a year or even less, will shift to a surplus. It's just a matter of time. Because what you have is supply, demand, price model, and price just went parabolic. To not shift your models to look forward from a deficit to a surplus would be silly. History shows that way. So people like us who've had rocks sitting in their accounts forever and finally they're giving you some major umph, you lighten up. I don't say short. Now, I'm willing to suggest a short in copper because I think it reached a pretty good level. For copper to stay above $6 a pound or $13,000 a ton is a major statement for demand, pull growth. And I think it's Responsible to be kind of short against that for normal one third correction I'm willing to say about bitcoin because bitcoin and all the cryptos have rolled over 200 day moving average. Just the facts they rolled over we've had beginning the year euphoria. And as my point the key focus I think for this year is volatility will go up in the stock market. You should be seeking opportunities to take on good risk adjusted positions. And the only opportunities so far have been I think risk award advice to me so far is to sell little bitcoin in their rally. Still a little bit copper on that rally. And it's not a trade, it's part of the macro. If those trades work, the whole thing starts tilting lower for normal correction which I think it's the time for in the stock market this year maybe down 10%. You know it's a shocker to say that but what emboldens me to say that's what's happening in precious metals. We have never had gold and all the precious metals but notice more than gold rally at this velocity without with stock market volatility staying this low. So there's the indicators I look at it. It's going to be a matter of time. And now we have this completely emboldened president as you can see who's has some, I'll say this delicately, some psychopathic tendencies. And he's got a lot of psychopaths psychopaths following him. Who's going to be emboldened. There's only one key force that'll push him I think back first midterms. He's got to hurry up before the midterms. That's probably what's happening in Greenland and the stock market. If the stock market drops 10, 20% he'll lighten up on every all his policies. I shouldn't say it. It's just when and I think that's what precious metals are figuring out. So I look at that the ounces of gold equal to an S P500 now it's right about 1.49. It's broken below that high that was set in 1929 in September 1.54. That's scary stuff. And so for now as a macro strategist I look at this market as a tremendous trading environment. As long as you don't come on overweight long and be offset right away. And I think this environment so so far the only T opportunities I see so far this year is kind of fading that you that that euphoria at the beginning of the year, you know, sell little risk assets like bitcoin and copper and make them prove you wrong. If they prove you wrong, it's a different environment. They keep tickling down from these resistances. To me, that's the domino sawing in for typical post deflationary, post inflation deflationary society cycle, which I think is starting in gold. Sold warned us that last year, last year bitcoin crypto speaking warned us. And so far I'm just going on with those flows and make them prove me wrong.
- [11:48]
A
So I, I want to pick on two of the threads before I unleash Larry, because there's something in there that I think that, that I've seen Larry use various four letter words, expletives.
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B
No, no, no, no, no.
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A
Two things I want to say first as far as the bet, I don't want to make a silver straight bet, although I think I'd win that one. What I will say is silver relative to gold will be higher. And I, I think that it is. It. There's a big, There's a lot of reasons for that. If you. And I keep saying this before, but if you look at the 70s when all this started, when Nixon closed the gold window, silver to gold in the decade averaged around 35 and we're still in the 50s, which tells me silver has farther to run than gold does. I do think that there's a reasonable shot. I've said it before. I think gold will bang against the 5000 level. Probably fail there the first time. I don't know where it goes to. I think when you talk about these things, the only thing that really matters, and this is what, where, where Larry, I want to go in is the denominators. Like what are you saying? What you're really saying isn't necessarily so. Is, is. Is in the case of gold, is gold going higher or is the dollar going lower or, or in fact are all fiat currencies going lower because governments are just printing hysterically. When you talk about Greenland, I mean, the one thing I want to say is it is not psychotic to. If people tell you, if your entire cabinet is basically saying that the most important thing that China is holding over our head like a hammer every single day in the geopolitical. I don't want to call it war because it's a soft war, but in the geopolitical power struggle is rare earths. And the largest, the, and the largest deposits of rare earths on, on the planet are in Greenland. That the United States thinks it is massively. Important for us to control that and not for it to fall under Chinese control. That is what he's being told now. Would I do it the way he's doing it? Absolutely not. I think there are better ways to handle it. But that is the backdrop. And make no mistake, that is literally he, you know, Trump, it basically says, has, you know, has two modes, forwards and, and stop. Maybe there's not a whole lot of backwards, there's not a whole lot of side to side. And so he's basically saying, listen, this is what we want. So you know, when we call it psychotic or deranged, I don't know I would call it, the one way you could call it is incredibly straightforward. I don't think that's particularly great in Internet, in geopolitics, but Greenland is exceedingly important for the next century in terms of getting rare earths. And that's what it's about. And so, you know, all the other stuff doesn't matter. I mean you can, you know, you talk about NATO and blah, blah, blah. I mean NATO needs us more than we need them. That's just reality. And, and you can't, you can't get around that. And so you could throw it, you could throw a hissy fit like a lot of the people are in politics. But frankly that's not what it's about. But let's, let's talk about gold and silver for a heartbeat. Silver's in structural deficit. I just looked it up with all the plans that are announced. Assuming every single one of the miners and all the smelters that are being built come online in 2026, it's still going to end the year in structural deficit. Maybe by 2028 we could catch up. Possibly, but there's no one who's projecting that. And so the question when you talk about it is if the smelters are running full out and they're pretty damn close to it, then even if I turn around and I hand them my pre 64 silver that I have sit in two different places, three different places actually, and I bring it all in, will that matter? Well, all I could tell you is this two pieces of anecdotes. Anecdote number one is if you at the US Mint obviously doesn't, they're going to have enough because they can't sell enough of it. And the premium that they are selling silver at is off the freaking charts. I've, it's, I've never seen anything like this before. For I'm wondering, should I go open an ebay store for my monster boxes for this stuff. Start selling tubes of. Of. Of silver eagles. Should I. I mean, the answer is no, because I think I told you I think silver is going higher. But the truth is, it's not a bad idea. That premium might make a whole lot of sense, but the other thing is there's way more ads. I once, a few weeks ago, actually asked for a quote from app Mex, what they would call it, to buy a small amount of silver, and they gave me a shitty quote, and I told them basically to go jump. Jump in a lake because they wanted me to sell it to them at a discount, and I told them to go to hell. Now, I have since gotten three different outfits. I'm not sure how they got it, but it's the Internet. So, you know, you. We know we're all the product. And now I get texts, I get emails, I get phone calls. Hey, do you want to sell silver? We'll offer you this, that, and the other thing from three different outfits. So it is not the same as what happened when gold first made its run. You know, the first couple times gold made its run, Mike, we all saw it. Cash for gold was all you saw in CNBC and. And whatnot. That's not what's happening. Right. You know, I mean, that is what's happening. They're advertising it, and it's not the other way around. So we'll see. Anyway, I. I've said a lot for you to unpack, you know, Larry. I mean, obviously.
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B
Yeah.
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A
So denominator is what I always say.
- [17:09]
B
Yeah. Well, let me just react to a couple things both of you said. I mean, first of all, yes, the fourth turn. We are in the fourth turning. We know it because everyone's screaming at everyone else. And, you know, this is what happens when you break the money and you make the system unfair. You know, everyone gets really tribal and gets pissed off, and it's awful. It's not what this country was all about for so many years. It's gotten really, really bad. And I think it really comes down to just a simple issue, which is the loss of trust in, you know, our institutions and the rules of society. And it's because we've watched, you know, government and so many institutions abuse our trust, you know, from. And just case after case, I mean, the vaccines are effective. The vaccines are safe. I mean, the list is as long as our arm. And so, you know, you know, thank God for the Internet. Thank God for people's ability to broadcast the truth and people's Ability to discover the truth by doing their own research. And you know, people are pushing back and, and rightfully so. Mike, I agree with you. The stock market is an enormous bubble. And I also agree with you. There will be a time when the price of silver will come down, when there'll be a supply response. I would just add this dovetails a little with what Dave said. It's unbelievably hard to start producing silver from scratch. I mean there's not, we've underinvested for 20 years in this industry, particularly since 2011. The capex going into this Tabby Costa has got some great charts on it. The Capex going in the silver industry has been completely starved. And you know, you can actually see Mexico and Peru, which are two of the biggest American producers or you know, American continent producers of silver. You know, I've seen their production decline substantially over the last 10, 15 years. And so it's going to take a lot of time, you know, when, from the time when you find a deposit to the time you have silver coming out of the door, that's 10 to 15 years. So you know, at the margin, yeah, everybody who's got a mine operating, they'll try and you know, they'll run it three shifts, they'll, you know, maybe drill a bit more, they'll add some capacity. I mean, don't get me wrong, you know, supply will go up, but not as quick as you know, a lot of people think. And so I think it's a very hard, it's a fool's, it's a mug's game to say how high is silver going to go? I mean, if you want my opinion, I think it's going to go to about $500 an ounce on the cycle. So you know, if, if you're short it, good luck, you know. And I get there because I think gold is going to go to about $10,000 an ounce. And I think you're going to have a 20 to 1, you know, gold to silver ratio which is a more. Which you were alluding to earlier, Dave, you know, that silver is increasing vis a vis gold and, and everybody listening to this probably thinks I'm nuts and probably thinks how can those numbers possibly be right? And the only thing I would say is it's because of all the paper silver that got created. I mean it's really amazing to me. You can go and look at the exchanges and we mine about 800 million ounces of silver a year. The world, that's the entire world mines about it. And we get scrap silver equal to about another 200 million ounces. And that still leaves us in a deficit because we're using about 1.1 billion ounces. And, you know, we're running out of grandma's tea sets to melt down. That's the scrap silver, you know. And I know that because I go to my local coin dealer and he's got tea sets stacked up, and I think he probably pays grandma 50 cents on the dollar, and then he sends it to a smelter and they pay him 70 cents on the dollar or whatever for the market price. But. But I guess the point I'm trying to make is, you know, silver is tight, and I don't think anybody really knows how high it can go. And I'm not, I'm not suggesting you buy it here, and I'm not suggesting it's. It's a lock that it goes to 500, but I think it's a lock that it goes to 100. Well, a couple things I will say. We will never see 50 again, in my opinion.
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A
Never.
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B
50 is long gone. We broke through it. We could correct back to just above 50. That's not unusual in any bull market, as you know, Mike. You get a breakout, somebody correct back and you test the breakout. But I. I think we're going to live in a new reality where probably 100 is going to be the low end, and I don't know what the high end is going to be to be. So. And that's just because of the supply, you know, demand deficit. But back to the. Back to the paper silver, I want to make a point here. So we mine 800 million ounces. So there are exchanges where you can see, like the London method, they, they trade 800 million ounces of silver in three hours. There are days when they trade twice the annual silver production. Now, what that tells you is that that's a lot of paper silver. I mean, we're, you know, there. There are a lot of derivatives contracts. I'm betting on the price of silver that if somebody on the other side who thought they bought a contract said, great, give it to me, you know, it's been estimated there are four or five times annual supply in potential derivative demand. And I think it could be even larger than that. So. So I don't know. I mean, there, you know, I guess what I would say is I think the shorts are playing with fire here. And I actually have gone further on Twitter. I said. And a lot of people criticized me for making this statement because they thought it was hyperbolic. But I said, wouldn't it be ironic if silver is the Lehman Brothers of this cycle? As we all know, Lehman Brothers kind of was what truly went, you know, made the 2008 go critical. And you know, what if there are some huge banks that are on the wrong side of the silver trade and will be wiped out, and their governments will be forced to either bail them out, close them out, or do force majeure? I mean, and we've seen force Majeure, right? In 2022, the nickel market went up 2 or 3x in the span of a week. And the LMA, the London Metals Exchange, was on the wrong side of it. And there were $12 billion of losses among nickel dealers in London, people who were shorted. And people cornered it and they pushed it up. And what did the LME do? They canceled the trades. They literally canceled the trades and said, sorry, yeah, you bought it and you should have 12 billion of games, but we're not giving it to you. Those don't count. And so, you know, you've got the US government saying it's a strategic mineral. You've got, you know, China competing for it, we're competing for it. We're all now in this great power competition where there's China, US and Russia all competing for our spheres of the world. I mean, one of the things I actually worry about is one day the government wakes up and does a 6102 on silver and says, you know, we need this. We need it for weapons, we need it for other things. SLV holders, you're in good, you know, you're in luck. We're going to send you cash at the last trade of slv. And all that silver that SLV holds, that now belongs to the US government. It's a strategic stockpile. So, you know, there's, there's a lot of stuff going on here that makes this not an easy call as to where silver is going to go next. And I would take your $1 bet on lower than 91 in a year. I don't think, I mean, you could be right, there could be, but I, I think that, you know, I, I really think that people who were thinking of shorting this, I mean, if you like shorting VW or shorting GameStop, you just don't know how. In a short squeeze, you don't know where the top is, I guess is the point.
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A
So Mike, you wanna, you wanna respond.
- [24:15]
D
Prudent investors who on top of it?
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B
Well, I, I agree with you. Having said all that, I Will add I have a lot of silver and I'm starting to sell some of it. I mean I am starting to take profits. I mean, and this is silver. That 4, 6, 8, 10. Because you never, you don't know what the top is, you know what the bottom is. Yeah. And so, so yeah, I mean I'm not, I'm not a buyer of silver here, although I think it'll go higher and I've got so much of it that I'm probably a, you know, a marginal seller of it. But this is, you know, I treat this the way I treat mining stocks. When I get up 5-10x, I start selling them even if I think they're going up 20x because you just, you have to as a, as a prudent manager of capital.
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D
So prudent man. So that, that's one thing I, we, I think our audience would prefer. We disagree, but we all agree on this. If you've been saying those kind of same bullish things that you said for over a decade, which I have and metals, you're supposed to lighten the thing about silver. That's changed. It's 60%. Industrial demand now is no longer the old silver. It's much more in a bucket of copper industrial metals. And never underestimate Adam Smith's invisible hand. I did enjoy whipping that book out back in 2022 when people call for crude oil to stay above $100 a barrel and corn to stay above $8. Yeah, that's a bush. No, it's the opposite. Basically, silver, similar to crypto, was a year ago and this could be an enduring peak for decades of history as a guy. So don't underestimate. Adam says you're supposed to take all those little deficit things you've read and heard about when you bought it at 28 at the last year, which is lower than the peak in 2000 in 1979 and say thank you what you're doing. You lighten up and be very 50% corrections. 10% days in silver should be happening soon. So let's kind of piggyback from there. It's the whole metal sector. We launched the Bloomberg Galaxy, Bloomberg Bloomberg metals index in 2018. It's the best place to invest. But now it's like gone up too much and then you'll bring on that stuff. All the things you're saying. There was always good reasons for rallies. Then you have to look forward. But I think what you said, Larry, is a prudent thing. Those of us who've been long it Forever. Lighten up. But here's the key thing I want to point out. I got completely wrong last year. I did not think the gold to silver ratio would drop below 80. It's at 50, 50 right now. So Dave, I'll take the other side of that trade. That's one key thing to remember about silver. It's like I mentioned now more industrial than it's ever been is the bottom line for silver to outperform gold is the US Stock market has to go up almost always historically and volatility has to stay low. So you see my problem there. I think that ratio is more likely to go back towards 80, it's at 50 now, than head towards 20 bullish on, on stock market volatility going.
- [27:11]
A
So let's, let's unpack that for a second. So silver is an industrial metal. Check what industries, that's the key. And so, you know, we have a world where we have the administration who still has three years, wants to goose the defense budget. Well, what's the, what are the industries that need silver? Well, it's pretty straightforward. Number one with a bullet is defense. You know, some crazy amount of silver goes into every, every Tomahawk missile, etc. Etc. Number, number two is electronics and number three is renewable power. Right. So you know, battery production and anodes, et cetera, all your AI data centers. The amount of silver that goes into all this stuff, crazy amounts. The reason we're in a structural deficit and the reason that we can't catch up is because the newer industries are the ones that's demanding silver. It's the best electrical conductor.
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B
Well, you haven't really even mentioned, Dave. I mean the two, the two data points that I think are very interesting. One is that solar, I mean you really can't, I mean the Chinese have talked about using copper and solar panels, but they haven't proven they can do it yet. Solar panels need a lot of silver. And you know, if, if Chinese solar demand continues to grow the way it has been growing historically, China would consume like 60% of annual production in 10 years, you know.
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A
Right.
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B
So, so that's, that's one that. And the more important, the other one that's really kind of on the, on the horizon but could be huge is Toshiba Samsung. These guys have come up with a battery, an automobile battery that requires silver, that could charge rapidly and have a lot more mileage. And I mean, and so, you know, and that's going to need a lot of silver per battery. And so that's a source of Demand. Now, they're not commercial with that yet, so that's a little further out. But to that point, here's an interesting data point. Samsung went out. One of the companies I'm invested in, Samsung went out and at market rates put a $10 million investment. It's a silver developer. They're going to have a mine that will be operating soon. So we will invest $10 million in you privately, locked up at today's market value. And in exchange, you've got to agree to sell all your silver at market to us for X number of years. That's interesting. Companies do that when they're worried about supply. And so, so it's a real, it's, you know, this is, we're not making this up. I mean, this is a real supply demand issue. And, you know, is there some froth in it? Sure. I mean, is there some speculation in it? Sure. But there's also a structural thing and it's. I agree with you, Mike. I mean, the one that's the most interesting to me and it's kind of an enigma. I mean, the stock market is way overvalued and the stock market should correct this year. I think there's a likelihood it will correct this year unless. Unless and less and less Trump, quote, unquote, runs it hot. And, and he's mentioned that he intends to run it hot. You know, they know that if the stock market turns down, deficits go up, he doesn't get reelected. All of the above. And so, and this is why he's trying to get so much control in the Fed. You know, he wants people in there that he knows will do things that will help him with his agenda, which is to push the stock market up. And, you know, I don't know how he's going to do it, but I wouldn't bet again, given how aggressive he is, I wouldn't bet against him doing it and I wouldn't bet against the stock market going up. But what I take away from that is if that's the case and he, quote, unquote, runs it hot, there's no way to run it hot without having a lot of inflation. Right. I mean, you've got to have money to feed the beast and more money.
- [30:45]
D
You're not going to get elected.
- [30:46]
B
Yeah, exactly.
- [30:48]
A
Well, it's exactly what's going to happen. I mean, you know, it's. Look, there's only. Right now, it doesn't matter if people talk about, well, he needs to do this for the news. The reality is from a news perspective, from the things that might be coming to a head between now and say, the summer, because that's by September, the midterms are more or less sealed. The things that are coming to a head are actually quite a bit of it is positive, but it won't matter if people look at their standard of living and say my cost of food and X and Y food, medical care, etc, what I care about is going up and my salaries are not. The Democrats win, we get two years of impeachment, this and this drama that, you know, and nothing happens in Congress and effectively everything grinds to a halt. Now, as macro analysts, we have to ask ourselves a simple question. What is, what does Wall street, what does the stock market love more than anything else in politics? They love gridlock. That's what they love. And we are, we are. And personally, I don't want to see gridlock as a human being. I think that there are certain things that need to happen. But the, the, the God's honest truth, and we all know this, this goes back years, Mike, is gridlock. Markets tend to like. And so the levers that Trump will have going out three, you know, for the full three years are the people he's appointed to agencies, what they can do and the next Fed chair and the next. What's there, that, that, that's it. Because you're not going to get legislation if the Democrats win Congress because there is no such thing as bipartisan anymore, because you get people. You, you literally had 100% of all the Democrats willing to say they, they don't want voter ID yet 85% of Americans want it. So there's no way, if you can't get bipartisan agreement on something that 85% of America wants, you're not getting bipartisan agreement on anything, which means you're going to get nothing done. So we're going to get gridlock. That is, anything other than gridlock will be a massive surprise to the, to the market. We all agree on that, right? Anyway, that's right. And so that's what you're going to see. So, you know, we keep talking. The reason I wanted to start with silver is because I think that it's going up for two reasons. One is what we said, which is just the industrial demand. But it's not just industrial, it's the new industries. It's what are, what, what's actually happening in this fourth turning. What's happening is automation is increasing, yet unlike oil, we have yet to come up with a better way of mining silver.
- [33:26]
B
Correct.
- [33:27]
A
That's the difference, whereas with oil, and the reason that oil has tended to, you know, perform much more like, you know, oil is $60 a barrel. And, you know, it's funny, I just finished watching season whatever it was two of Landman, which is one of my favorite shows on tv. I just love the character. Billy Bob Thornton is one. I just. I just love the characters on that.
- [33:47]
B
Billy Bob's a great actor.
- [33:49]
A
He's a great actor, but the writing is superb. But what you know is that, that oil technology continues to improve. We continue to be able to drive down the cost of it. And Mike, you've talked about this ad nauseam. And so oil is a different commodity than something like silver, which we really haven't improved our ability to get silver out of the ground and turn it into it. So as a result, the denominator, that is the number of dollars in existence, the number of euros in existence, yen in existence, et cetera, all continues to go up. So in those terms, obviously, the price has much more support. And so you can't look back on a chart without factoring for number of the amount of global money supply in existence. That's where you and I differ more than anything or anything else. Now, speaking of existence of more money supply, I mean, Larry, I know you know a little bit about that. I mean, how does that impact your way of looking at all markets?
- [34:44]
B
Well, I mean, that's the debasement trade, right? And as we all know, the big news there is that the Fed pivoted in December and started QE again, started printing money again, $40 billion a month. They call it reserve management, but it's really. It's really QE or whatever. And I thought it was interesting the way they did it. They floated a few trial balloons. They stopped QT in late October or late November, late October, I guess it was. And. And then they floated a few trial balloons and said, you know, maybe we'll do 25 billion of QE and maybe it'll start in 2026. Then December 2nd rolled around and bang, they did 40 billion starting in two days. So telling you that they really actually needed it. You know, the reserves were too tight. And I've got some charts that show that. I've talked about them in other podcasts. Basically, you know, the. The machine we've got, the monetary system we've got. You have to continually grow reserves, grow M2, or else the debt collapses. And that looks like 1929. And that's unpleasant. Nobody wants to have that happen. And so, you know, I wrote A book called it the Big Print. It's really the third big print. The first one was 08. Bernanke printed 3 trillion over three, four years. The second one was Powell in 2020, where he did 5 trillion in 18 months. And I think another one's coming. And I think we just saw them, you know, we just saw them kind of capitulate. I mean, it's a certainty that in December they did not want to do what they're doing. This reserve management, this stopping qt, this, all this stuff. They didn't want to do that. You know, they're, they're above their inflation mandate target. You know, I don't know, depends on how you measure it. And of course, all the measures stink, but they're clearly at 2.7 to 3, and their target is 2. I mean, it should be 0. And so they, you know, they turned around and started printing again. And my sense is, you know, all the stuff Trump's talking about, I mean, none of it's free, you know, defense to 1.5 trillion. Okay, you can do that. But where's the 500 billion extra 500 billion gonna come from? So, you know, I think we're just, you know, the printer, the printer is going to get turned on. You know, Lynn Alden and I kind of jokingly argued on Twitter, she's like, well, it's, it's more kind of a gradual print right now. And she's right. I mean, 440 billion a month is. 480 a year. You know, that's not the trillions that happened in the last two big ones. But I feel like mathematically the next big one's coming, and I feel like it's coming within. I think it'll happen this year, actually because of the midterms, but I'd be shocked if it doesn't happen in a year or year and a half. I mean, and I think it will happen because of something. And this is, I'd be curious, Mike's view on this. It'll happen because of the bond market and the other little alarm that's sounding in the bond market, I tweeted it out this morning, is the yield on the Japanese 10 year looks like a rocket launch. That tells me that people are not too happy with holding long Japanese paper. And how long until that leaks into our long paper? To me, it's amazing to me that anyone would buy a US 10 year bond at 4% when we're clearly debasing the money at a much higher rate.
- [37:47]
A
Great. Yeah, it's Funny that. Mike, you should talk. But I wanted. I don't know if Ryan can put up the screen, but I was just looking at the Japanese bond yield and boy, does that chart. I mean, I mean, that's six months. You go to a year. I mean, you just, Just look at that. I mean, that is insane. I mean, if you go back breaking above 160, I mean, we were talking on this show, Mike, remember about the carry trade about. Well, as long as it doesn't break above 160, no one's gonna care. And now you look at what it's done since November. I mean, it's, it's. Yeah, I mean, this is an alarm. People aren't talking more about it, but it's a very big move.
- [38:26]
B
I mean, that's an alarm signal because.
- [38:29]
D
Because people like us, who traded these things almost 30 years ago, been waiting for this for three decades. Honestly, I gave up on it. Just like silver. I was almost ready to sell all silver last year because it's like, oh, but exactly. So I, I think that it's him. But I, I want to address what you're saying, Larry. I think it's really important to remember the first part of a binary model for a big print risk assets have to go down a lot. The problem is we've already been through. They pointed out this will be the next one. And to me, that's what gold's figured out now, silver maybe too. But silver's a speculative risk asset. It's called the devil's metal for a reason. So to me, those are the signals that we're seeing from the metals, certainly gold last year. And to look back from the future and say, yeah, that, you know, gold grabbing alpha at the greatest velocity since 1979 didn't matter, was strange. So I'm looking back from the future and saying, yeah, 2026 was a risk off year because we were warned volatility went up and all risk assets went down except for one thing, treasury bonds and treasury bond prices. And so, yeah, I've been, I've been taking the pain on that for three years. But to reiterate what happens from the pain to the gain, we're seeing the gain in the medals and Mick, as some people call me, I love that I was expecting gold to break above 2000 in 2021, particularly when Russia raed Ukraine in 2022 and 2023, I was Mick retard in gold to go above 2000 for 3 years. Finally did it. That was the pain. Now we're in the gain you pointed out the prudent thing to do. You lighten up. We had pain in platinum. I remember Brendan Clifford. I think of the Platinum Institute every time I get his emails. I'm like, yeah, I get it, Brendan. I've been long. Platinum forever and bullish. Platinum forever finally breaks out. The key thing that's happened is the pain I've had in treasuries. The most ever. Three years. Completely wrong. But there's one key thing. There's a 10 on a global scale for everything. I look at that treasury bond right now at 4.8 or so percent, almost 5% as a put on the S&P 500 that has positive return, then actually gave you positive return last year despite the stock market going up. So here's my scenario. S&P 500 drops 10% and stays down. Bond yields, which are on a four handle, go to three. Mortgage rates, which are a five to six handle, go to four. Crude oil goes to 40. The average gasoline price in this country around 280 goes to two. All those things that Trump needs and wants will happen. It's one simple little thing. But when you get this expensive in US stock market, you have to understand it is the economy on a global basis. It's all that matters. And like I said, if we drop 10%, that's all it's going to be, all that matters. The Fed will be easy real fast. But in this environment with all going up, everybody's got 10 gain. I say, yeah, then the fun thing this year is to.
- [41:22]
A
Mike, you're gonna have to do something about your Internet.
- [41:24]
B
Yeah, you're breaking up a bit. Mike, Mike, I, I don't disagree with you. I mean, what you're disagreeing describing as a deflationary impulse which would put a bit into the bonds. And I don't, you know, I don't disagree that that's a possibility. I mean, if the stock market cracks, you know, and things start going down. The thing is we're running these record deficits and, you know, everything's completely where it is. It's all messed up right now. This is with a healthy stock market, right? The last two times the stock market cracked, you know, you have all kinds of, you know, spending goes up on social programs, et cetera, and tax revenue goes down, so the deficit gets even worse. And so, you know, my sense is the stock market, if the stock market cracks, maybe for a brief period, it's a deflationary thing very much. In March of March of 2020, the 10 year traded down to like 50 basis points for a few days. Remember that. It was nuts, right? So you can get a deflationary impulse for a brief period of time. But then of course we know since the Fed has vowed to fight deflation and since they fear it more than anything else and they don't want to have another 1929, we know what happens. The policy response is, you know, print money full blast, buy everything in sight. We're not going to let that happen. Right. And so, so, but that, but that is what makes trading this year very tricky. And it's what makes, you know, things like bitcoin as an example. I mean I love bitcoin, I love microstrategy. But there's a model, I mean I rated about a 35% chance that we have what you've described, Mike, which is a deflationary impulse and bitcoin goes to 60. I mean if it does, that's an enormous buying opportunity. I'll be selling gold and silver and backing up the truck. But the point is we just don't know. I mean, the system is so broken and the policymakers are so corrupt and stupid, but yet we know certain things that are true, which are they will not let us fall into a long term deflation like 1929 if they have a printing press available to them. I think that's, that's the bet I'm making.
- [43:25]
A
So let's talk about, let's pivot back to talk about bitcoin because Mike and I had a, I had a Mike, you know, post on and Mike talked about it. So Mike posted again about $10,000 bitcoin. And my, my point on that is, is it's very simple. I'm not saying it can't happen because God knows if bitcoin breaks, I mean if it's literally deciding to go to zero if the, if all the miners unplug and the network effects go down and it fails. And look, the market is pricing, let's make no mistake, this price of bitcoin, the market is pricing a very much a non zero chance that bitcoin will fail full stop and just be a niche product because otherwise it would be somewhere between 3 or 400,000 right now. So clearly the market is pricing that, that is a real possibility. So anyone who says that it is not, well, I mean, well, it is, it's a possibility. If you don't believe it's going to happen, then you should be, you know, in it and irresponsibly long, probably. But let's just leave that For a side. Why do I say that? Well, because in, in the case of 2022 when we had a significantly lower money supply relative to every asset on the planet, it thing it would be much, much lower. Even after forced selling from the largest exchange failure, after multiple other failures, we couldn't get, they couldn't get Bitcoin to drop below 16,000. So saying it's going to go below that now 60% below that is basically saying it's going to fail. So that's why I made that point. But the real question is Bitcoin is trading in this quasi risk asset mode. And I say quasi because lately the correlations are icky. Today the correlation is high. If you look at the stock futures, people are expecting tomorrow to be a pretty bad day and bitcoin is off a little over a percent or so. So it's more or less exactly in line with the S. And you know, for where the futures are trading still towards the top of its recent range which was mid-80s to mid-90s, we got a little above it. But people got excited and what happened? They got wiped out. There was, you know, almost 800 million liquidated in the crypto market. Now only a third of that was bitcoin. But it doesn't matter because the animal spirits in the crypto world are very, very much alive. People continue to over leverage and every time they go for a breakout they get get waxed. And so we look at a market where there's just nothing sustainable and it's sitting in this distribution mode. What's interesting about Bitcoin in particular is traditional financial types are more and more not putting pinky toes in the water. Now they're putting a few toes in the water and eventually it'll be feet and more in terms of diversifying that part of the portfolio that might have been in gold or might have been in silver. And so you're seeing more and more in the United States financial types selling metals in order to buy bitcoin. But over the over world the contract for differences market, etc and silver is still dwarfing anything that's happening in crypto. So I look at all this as, as very interesting. I, I will continue to say that unless there is a major stock market correction in the first half of the year, now the in years after strong markets, the March period when people have to sell for taxes can be pretty iffy. Last year we had it iffy because of the tariff tantrum. But that spring you could see that that sort of sell off. Could that happen again? Absolutely. It could happen again. Is it, it going to happen again? I mean, I don't know. I'd say it's probably more like 60% that we'll see. And you said 10%. I mean a 10% sell off, that's easy. We had more than that last year. I think that that could easily happen, particularly if one of many macro things happen. But the real question is, what does that do to bitcoin? Last year it took bitcoin, they couldn't really get it below, very far below 80. They got a little into the 70s and that was it. And at the same time, the fundamentals are different now. More those marginal sellers that came out of the woodwork last year from the long term holders sold a lot of. And the people that are buying it are people who have a cost basis where it wouldn't make any sense for them to be selling it now because it's a long term bet. And so the dynamic is different now. That is not the same as the rest of crypto. Okay, I want to be really clear about that. I think Ethereum has a narrative. Bitcoin is a narrative. Some of the larger cryptos have a narrative. A lot of the speculative stuff in crypto will only take off if there's a sustained rally in the majors. And until then there it's a bleed out. And that's what's been going on. And so when you talk about competitors and all the other stuff, that's how I see it. So that's my mental model. I personally think that there is a reasonable chance that there'll be a risk asset sell off at some point. But I think the overall trend is they're running it hot and they're going to print more money and risk assets are going to go higher. And as long as risk assets go higher at the same time that people are diversifying away, I think bitcoin breaks out to a new all time high. That's my base case. Now Mike, I know you disagree, so I want to give you a chance.
- [48:30]
B
Bitcoin correlation with the Nasdaq and as a risk on asset, it's been fading over time. There were a few days last week where triple Q's were down and bitcoin was up. And that few days doesn't make a trend. But the point is it is, in my opinion it is a neutral reserve currency and it will become that. And the sentiment in it right now is just absolutely dreadful. I mean, you guys probably saw the New York Times article attacking Sailor and, and you know it to me I mean, we're, you know, we're only 100 and some odd days away from an all time high of 124. We're still in the 90s. I mean, it's not like, it's not like this thing's been a disaster. And yet the sentiment, it feels to me. You know, I hang out with a lot of bitcoin people. It feels to me they're all, you know, crying in their beer like this is. It's just horrible that it hasn't gone up, up much quickly. And, you know, if you look back at this thing, I mean, the best way, I think, Mike, and you would agree with this, having a lot of experience, the best way to evaluate any asset is to look at the long term history, what the asset's done in the past. If you look at the long term history, what bitcoin's done, you know, it really rewards patience and it rewards it in a funny way. And just when you're about to give up, that's when it works. And, and it, you know, it goes up. I mean, it, you know, I mean, let's go back and examine the March 20 example, okay. Because that was the last kind of risk off event. And then a big print. And so it's instructive when you're looking at that and you compare it to bitcoin and gold today. So when Powell pivoted in 2019 because the repo stuff blew out, he stopped tightening, he started losing. He cut rates. And then Covid came along and then he really printed and cut rates. Gold went from 1200 to 2,020. You know, everybody was happy in gold land. My stocks all went up. It's all good. Bitcoin was just locked in between five and eight. Just couldn't go anywhere. And it stayed there. And I remember very clearly because I own both, I'm in both communities and crypto, people like bitcoin people were like, what the hell? You know, gold's ripping. Our thing's not. And then suddenly, you know, July, August, bitcoin woke up and bam, it went from 10 to 60, went up 6x, like really quickly.
- [50:36]
A
Well, let's get it right. It was October.
- [50:38]
B
Okay. Yeah, thank you.
- [50:40]
A
That was the same year that Paul Tudor Jones made the fastest horse comment.
- [50:44]
B
And how quickly was that? What was the time frame, Dave, between the 10 and the 60?
- [50:48]
A
Well, so here's what happened. 10 was where it was. It was right up below 10. When Paul Tudor Jones said early May of that year, it didn't do a damn thing. Until mid October. And then once it started rallying in mid October, it got to like the 15 range. November it got to the 20 range. 60 was in the following, by the following April I think was when it hit or March.
- [51:10]
B
So, so really within six months it did a six bagger. And so I believe that's what will happen this time too. I mean gold has, gold is really good at smelling out monetary debasement. It just knows when it's coming, I think. And so here we are, we know it's coming and, and when it hits, you know, bitcoin's going to go from you know, 80, 90 to 270 or 300 in my opinion. So that's really the pattern that it's shown in the past. And I think that pattern will continue. But you've got to have a very long term perspective on it. And there's never really been an asset like this. I mean bitcoin. Mike, you very prudently pointed out that silver, we can mine more silver. We've got an algorithmically fixed cap on the amount of bitcoin. So when people decide they got to have it, we're not creating any more of it. The only, it's perfect in that respect. It's perfectly inelastic, right? Higher price does not create more supply. And that's why it trades in this wide wild animal like fashion. And so I, you know, I fully expect the next top will be 2, 3, 400,000. And by the way, from there it'll correct another 50 or 60% again, come back down into the 170 range or something. I mean it's like Amazon when it was getting adopted. I mean you just, you know, it's either, either bitcoin's going to the moon, everybody's all pumped up and crypto bros are driving you nuts. Or bitcoin or bitcoin's dead. And you know, it's, it's, it's, it's on its way out. Like I mean right now Peter Schiff is out there doing victory laps. Like see the bubbles burst? I told you. Gold's crushing it and bitcoin's going to zero. It's like, okay Peter, you know, let's give me another year or two. Let's see where we are, you know, so you gotta be patient.
- [52:52]
D
Let me look at simplistic facts of bitcoin. I've been waiting for the big test for a while. Let's see beta go down and bitcoin outperform. We did not get the test last year and bitcoin failed. The whole crypto space failed. Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index was down 20% after being up 20% starting in middle year I started putting that index in the year 1929 in the same sentence. I will continue to do that. If you two and everybody's bullish are right. Prove it. Let's see it stay above a hundred thousand. I think it's more likely to go to 50 in a normal correction and then move on from that particular. If we just get to. Like you said, it's such a silly thing to say. Oh my gosh, if we get a 10 correction in the stock market, people aren't ready for that. The psychology of the space. And let's remember what I loved about bitcoin is it's so emotional. As an ex trader that's the last thing you're supposed to be. I mean I put out comments about all other commodities and I don't get the kind of seriously silly pushback, you know, like Mick retard. And that's a sign there's a problem here. So right now it's failing. The whole space is heading lower. I'm willing to suggest you should be shorted. And let's make prove me wrong. Stop glowing out.
- [54:05]
B
Well and, and being shorted for the next six months might be the right call. Mike, what I would suggest to you though is I'm. If we could maybe six years.
- [54:12]
D
I, I think this is the biggest peak.
- [54:14]
B
Peak like well let's see. That's right.
- [54:16]
D
I think this is a peak like Silver did in 1979.
- [54:19]
B
Yeah, see, that's right.
- [54:19]
D
Of course we got to disagree or else we're not worth each other. But here's what you have against you right now. It's a bear market.
- [54:26]
B
Yeah, oh no doubt, no doubt. But I mean it's a bear market where we were at an all time high, you know, only you know, 100 some odd days ago. I mean it's not that bad a bear. And in terms of bitcoin bears, I mean we've had. Let's usually how they start Davis. You know we've seen much worse than this. I mean be at 90 when the high was 124. This is not really that big a bear. So.
- [54:45]
D
But, but you're, you know, the facts have changed. Best when bitcoin is a baby.
- [54:50]
B
What's that?
- [54:51]
D
Bitcoin's not a baby now. It's in the space and it's got horrible performance. I mean the bitcoin performance absolutely sucks. Since 2021 high volatility low performance. Any risk managers allocating to this space is going to say, yeah, so what do you need for it to go up? Well, stock market has to go up. Used to be leveraged beta. It is anymore. Everybody's in this space and you know, and it has unlimited. Okay, I have to be careful using this word because bitcoiners are sensitive and they get overwhelmed. It's competitor, I like to say. I like to say bitcoin is like a gaggle of, of pigeons or geese and the precious metals are doves. There's just unlimited supply. So I'll look at my base case, dogecoin. We're two thirds of the way there. It peaked around $60 billion in 2024 when President Trump elected. It's 20 billion dollar. Once it gets to zero, another third of that flush to zero, then I'll probably turn bullish or see signs of anything but divergent strength. Other than horrible performance versus Beta, I mean it just sucks now. Versus Nasdaq, there's no earnings. Just pointing out facts. Almost five years now. I pointed that out today. The bitcoin to gold ratio is flat now for five years I'll take gold and gold's expensive. So I just look at it as good luck, trade's over.
- [56:01]
B
This is a fact you might find hard to believe, Mike, but it's true. In the last five years, Bitcoin has outperformed gold. Last five years, gold is up compound annually 20%. Bitcoins up 23% a year. And in the last five years, the S&P is up 12%. They both beat the S and P. So you know, bitcoin to gold ratio.
- [56:22]
D
Is 20 right now. Five years ago it was 20.
- [56:26]
B
Yeah, well that's, that's, it's not quite right. It's actually a little different than that.
- [56:31]
D
Because it's a fact.
- [56:32]
B
No, it's not. Your data is wrong.
- [56:34]
D
I just pulled the chart up and posted it on X yesterday.
- [56:36]
A
Well, rather than arguing about facts, and.
- [56:38]
D
By the way, bitcoin's not going what.
- [56:42]
A
We saw, part of this sample size is we've seen twice in bitcoin's history euphoric rallies where bitcoin traded dramatically higher than its network strength and all the various user adoption metrics. Dramatically. The last one happened to be within this period of time. It happened at the end of 17, beginning in December of 17. It happened again in a double peak in 21. Right. It was 21. That it did that. Your 6x rally to 60,000 and then it dropped and then went to 69 and then dropped again and then stayed down. In both of those cases the network compared to today was well in the second case it was about 1/6 to 1 set between 1/6 to 1/7 the size in terms of strength, in terms of the amount of hash power that's being thrown at it, the amount of money that's being thrown at it on the network side. So the 2025 quote rally, which was a immediate reprice up from the Trump administration calling the dogs off from Elizabeth Warren's anti crypto army did never follow through. It didn't follow through for a host of reasons. I will maintain it has to do with the fourth turning we were talking about earlier, which is half the country said well Trump likes it, I have to hate it. And you know that is a, that's a very real thing and we have three more years of that. But the question is, is just to go back though. Never got anywhere close to euphoria ever.
- [58:13]
B
So we're going to run out of time. I just want to go back because one thing I feel strongly about in podcasts is you should, should we should be dealing with the same set of facts and the truth. I would, I would suggest everyone go to a site called Case Bitcoin, C A S E Bitcoin all one word dot com. And what you will see is, and this guy updates this daily. What you'll see is the rolling returns on a, on a compound annual growth rate or on a total growth rate. And yes, you know bitcoin gold beat bitcoin this year unless you know, last year. But on a five year basis, Bitcoin's up 180%, gold's up 150. And on a compound, those numbers compounded, bitcoin's been compounding at 23.
- [58:56]
A
I'm presenting that on the screen. If Ryan, if you can put it up there, you'll see it. It's right in the middle.
- [59:01]
D
Larry, can I ask you one question? Yeah, Larry, can I ask you one question?
- [59:05]
B
Sure.
- [59:06]
D
What's the volatility average annual volatility of gold versus bitcoin during that period?
- [59:12]
B
I don't know the answer so you.
- [59:13]
D
Don'T have to answer the question. It's two to three times and a risk adjusted gold or bitcoin should be up two to three times goal. That's my point is on a risk adjustment its performance absolutely sucks. You don't allocate, the trade is over, maybe we'll get a decent dip to buy. And right now I'm Just saying it looks like it was a rally to sell.
- [59:33]
B
Okay, fair enough. I mean I, yeah, if you want to put in the, the volatility as a measure. I hear your point and that's valid but I mean like you said that it had crushed it in terms of performance on a five year basis and that's not true. So.
- [59:46]
A
Well, the volatility it is, I have.
- [59:49]
D
Here, let me show you the chart. Bitcoin to gold ratio I plugged, I just posted on X it's 20 and exactly on January 21, 2021 it was about 19.8. It's the same me. But it's the risk. That's my point is any risk managers look back in this and say okay, well how many years now we have poor performance and higher volatility. It's just you don't allocate to that something like that. So actually before ets.
- [60:18]
A
So here's, here's the thing. So you like to, you like to talk about objective truth. So okay, fair. Except for the fact that the amount of buying by people who actually understand that as opposed to crypto bros. Has been remarkably tilted toward bitcoin. Not because of that, but because of the long term optionality embedded in bitcoin. That's just fact. Right. You know, if you talk to anybody from the ETF complex, any of the people, whether it's a BlackRock at Fidelity or Bitwise man, you know they'll all.
- [60:49]
D
Tell you because site analysts perfect.
- [60:52]
A
You're talking. But that's where the money they're talking.
- [60:54]
D
Their books, they're selling products.
- [60:56]
B
Well, hey guys, we gotta wrap up. It's 10 o' clock and I gotta get going. But it was nice to see you, Mike. We'll revisit the silver price in a couple years and we'll revisit the bitcoin price too.
- [61:08]
A
We shall see. Anyway everyone, enjoy the rest of your holiday. And of course we'll be back next Monday. I think Scott will be back and everything will be back to normal and so be it.
- [61:17]
B
Okay, take care guys. Bye bye.
- [61:21]
C
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