Loading summary
Transcript145 lines
- [00:01]
A
Bitcoin ETF inflows are surging as they are into other crypto assets. It seems that we're having a very bullish start to the year and there's a lot of conjecture that Venezuela or Maduro himself may hold what we like to call in the community a shit ton of bitcoin. We're going to unpack all of this big news from Morgan Stanley and of course talk about arch public with my Tuesday co hosts Andrew and Tillman. Let's go, let's go.
- [00:46]
B
Let's do.
- [00:47]
A
Today's show is very serious and I have a very important address for you, the American people. We were inspired yesterday by Dave Weisberger using a really shitty green screen background of the Oval Office. So I decided to fly up to Washington, displace the sitting president kind of a thing we do in this country and take over the Oval Office. So here we are. Now, I'm not going to wear this jacket anymore. It's uncomfortable and I don't have a red tie. Ready to throw that out of the way. Going to go ahead and bring on Andrew and Tillman.
- [01:21]
C
You're chippy, but I can't wait to see, see the blooper reel of this new studio and all the tech that you're having to learn. It's going to be quite the epic string of cuss words I think that we can put together.
- [01:34]
A
No, you guys didn't catch the beginning of the show right before I went on or anything over there trying to get the camera working.
- [01:43]
B
Politically incorrect words used, talking about tech, which I don't know if you guys.
- [01:49]
A
Caught this if you watch Macro Monday yesterday, but out of absolutely nowhere the least expected thing happened. And Mike McGlone who obviously is like a pretty, you know, like you look at him, you're like buttoned up, pretty conservative guy, works at Bloomberg. He started calling himself McDonald.
- [02:06]
B
I saw that yesterday.
- [02:09]
A
I was like, dude, we are back. If we're doing Mickey, then wokeism is over.
- [02:18]
B
I'd be concerned that he'd have a, a word from HR in his inbox after that show. Dude.
- [02:24]
A
Yeah, but I mean, you know, somebody.
- [02:25]
B
Had to hear him saying that. Somebody, right?
- [02:28]
A
You know, it's on the Internet. He didn't make that up himself, but like here we go. Let's take a very brief look at the market. We got bitcoin trading just under 94,000. That's good, that's good. Ethereum 32 XRP. Absolutely mooning. I mean there's like Brad Garlinghouse, spontaneous ejaculation Happening across the market. Solana, $139.32. We're seeing a bit of bullishness here to start off the new year. A lot of conjecture that it could be Venezuela related. I've kind of pushed back on that. I think we just kind of cleared the malaise of December and the holidays and tax harvesting and all those things and we're kind of getting some renewed interest in the market. Like I don't think that we're seeing these inflows that you talk about here, Andrew, just because of Venezuela. Right. I bet 287 million on the first trading day of the year. Yeah, people are just back.
- [03:28]
B
Yeah, that was last week. So, you know, we had collectively about 6 billion get out of the ETFs, you know, late last year, let's call it the last 45 days, which was, you know, somewhat meaningful. Well, in the first two trading days of the year, Friday and now Monday, we've added another 1.2 billion in inflows. So that's not surprising because we've now, you know, turned the calendar. Crypto is now a meaningful part of traditional finance. So it's going to follow the ebbs and flows of the calendar associated with traditional finance. People are, are back from vacation, you know, moving money around, taking a look at performance from the previous year versus you know, performance over a period of years there, there back in the day, let's call it, you know, 25 years ago. There was a theory that was back then it wasn't an ETF because ETFs didn't meaningfully exist back then. It was a, it was a trust type of thing, but it was a, a tradable, a daily tradable. Not a mutual fund, but a precursor to the ETFs. Well, one of the most famous ones was the dogs of the Dow, right? So the dogs of the Dow would pick the worst performers in the dao, put them in their little trust portfolio each year and generally speaking, they would outperform. So that's, that's part the, of a, part of the thesis associated with Wall Street. Okay, Bitcoin's down. When we look at the history, it's never been down two years in a row over the last couple of cycles. It's probably going to go up. A lot of people talking about it. So let's put some, let's put some capital in it. I do find the Morgan Stanley story very, very compelling because that has more to do with retail demand than anything else. Retail demand basically says if we're Morgan Stanley, instead of, you know, offering our clients fidelity, ETFs, Black Rock ETFs and all the others, why don't we make the money for ourselves? And so Morgan Stanley's out there.
- [05:48]
C
It took them this long to figure that one out. Andrew, that's amazing.
- [05:51]
A
Some people see it. Morgan Stanley files for Bitcoin trust with the sec, Reuters. And then to follow that up, Morgan Stanley files form S1 for Salana Trust with staking. So not, not just a bitcoin story here from Morgan Stanley. They universally want to make money on all of our beloved assets.
- [06:10]
C
Yeah, well, and they already own, you know, 200 million or roughly 200 million of IBIT. So they're, they're in the game. They, they know the writing's on the wall for all those folks. They've got to bring the retail into this, you know, ecosystem because it's the, it's the future. It's what everybody. The demand is too high. Like Andrew said, it's one of those things where if the people are all standing outside your door demanding something and they're your customer base, you know, likelihood is that you're going to fold at some point. You're going to adopt.
- [06:41]
A
I mean, look at this guy, right? I mean, Jamie Dimon. People are finding ways to make it faster, cheaper.
- [06:47]
B
Permission.
- [06:48]
A
Not permission, permission.
- [06:54]
C
Listen.
- [06:54]
A
Permission. Full. Right.
- [06:56]
C
This is. We're so early that I saw on television yesterday as a same. I won't embarrass him, but somebody like him say, you know, I wonder if anything besides bitcoin has any value. I wonder if we'll be able to find another bitcoin in this haystack of altcoins that exist. Like he has no clue what they do or no clue how to appropriate a use case into them. It's shocking how early we are still for help. I won't name names. I do podcasts with him sometimes, so I don't want to.
- [07:35]
A
Yeah, no, the second bitcoin is going to be when we probably part coin.
- [07:42]
B
One of. One of the executives from Coinbase was on.
- [07:46]
A
I got him. Dude, you keep your. Your segues are so tight today, dude, you don't even know what stories I got up. There he is.
- [07:52]
B
Yeah.
- [07:53]
A
John, what if. Why don't we have apostrophes in our last names?
- [08:00]
B
Yeah. So again, this has to do with retail demand, right? So Morgan Stanley setting up a couple of of ETFs. Crypto ETFs demand. The more often you see crypto executives on these shows, it's because These shows are hearing and seeing and feeling demand associated with crypto news and crypto information. And again, to bring it all the way down the funnel, right, you're talking about trillions upon trillions upon trillions of investable dollars across the world of wealth that have meaningfully woken up and said, okay, this has got to be a part of our portfolio. We, we have crossed the. I've said it a bunch of times that we've crossed the Rubicon, but maybe there's multiple Rubicons. Because the fact that bank of America is now allowing their Merrill lynch owned folks to say that you can, you can have up to 4% of your, of your portfolio in crypto, that is a cross the Rubicon moment. Bank of America is the most conservative organization on the planet with this stuff I've said for two years now until Merrill lynch and bank of America kind of Green Light crypto ETFs. We still have further to go. So to get to the point where we're saying now 4%, that's another extraordinary moment. Like it really is another extraordinary.
- [09:41]
A
I just want to point one thing out. I saw that widely reported by crypto media as bank of America recommends 4% allocation to crypto. And I wanted to punch my screen repeatedly in the face. It's a totally different story than that. It's huge. But we just report things so poorly in this industry. They can Recommend up to 4%. Is not bank of America recommending 4% allocation to grandma?
- [10:10]
B
Right, well, you follow the trail. Right? You follow the trail. So you know, we finally get the bank of America, they're allowed to do up to 4%. So what's the next thought there? Well, remember that Larry Fink said If we're at 1 to 2% of portfolios across wealth management and across institutions, we're going to 500 to 700k. Like we're moving along that path right now. Like, like that path is wide open. There's nothing stopping it. There's no meaningful obstacle in front of it. It's, you know, when Larry does something and BlackRock does something, it's just really stupid to take the other side of the debate.
- [10:51]
C
It's just, well, it's so obvious but at the same time so painfully slow. Yeah, these markets adopt at, you know, a ridiculously slow rate. And, and I get it. It's the backbone of the world basically. So they have to bitcoin. I think we just celebrated 17 years. Yay, birthday. But 17 years of a track record in the financial space is, is really hard to Ignore. And I think that, you know, it's just going to continue to grind its way into full integration. 4% will end up being 10% will end up being 15% and there'll be some perfect magic number that, that maintains that status for a 10 year period. But then it's going to change too, right? We don't know where the risk adjustment return is going to end up on Bitcoin 20, 30 years from now. We just know that anything that has scarcity measured against something like a fiat, who. Which is printed into infinity is a great hedge against inflation. Like if you just take that simple notion, Bitcoin has to be. Or something like Bitcoin has to be a part of that strategy. And I think the bounce in prices, it's hard for me to go like, yep, it's this news headline because we've had like a hundred news headlines this year that if we had gotten them in any of the previous years, it would have been, you know, rocket ships to the moon, moon Lambo on every post. You know, it would have taken us the price way, way up. I think the price is consolidating under 100, which I actually like to see above 75, which I really, really like to see. That those things are good. I do think that the spark in the silver market is causing a lot of people to go. I wonder if this is the catalyst that causes.
- [12:46]
A
Silver is just an altcoin, man.
- [12:48]
C
Silver is just an altcoin.
- [12:49]
A
I agree with you. Gold is bitcoin and it goes way up. And then people get bored and they start buying dumb shit.
- [12:54]
D
Palladium.
- [12:55]
A
God, can we edit these after I've. I'm gonna need to be bleeped so many times. Palladium and platinum and you know, whatever that thing is from Black Panther that. Yeah, yeah.
- [13:07]
C
Like one of the other metals that I don't understand.
- [13:10]
D
What we used to see in the.
- [13:11]
A
Crypto market, bitcoin would go up like it's the gold, it consolidates. Then all of a sudden people are like, well, there's this other stuff that hasn't moved yet. Let's buy that.
- [13:19]
B
Well, I just took position in Unobtainium from av.
- [13:26]
A
Yeah, well, that movie is out or coming out, so you. Good bet.
- [13:30]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [13:32]
C
But the, the historic move in the disjointed price in markets is. Is historic. There's no other word I can use to describe it. We've never seen in the history of the COMEX a competing price out of a competing country, out of a competing financial system that's you know, $20 different in spot price in some cases. That's showing us something, it's telling us something. And I believe crypto, that market are the buckets thing that are going to catch a lot of that wealth transfer. And it's happening, you know, it's kind of a slow, you know, death, if you will. But I think there will be a time where it happens kind of all at once or it feels like it does because the, the cat's out of the bag. This, the, the companies that have adopted blockchain technology, whether it's exchanges who are offering it to consumers or custodians or anybody, honestly at the bitcoin conference you'll see companies who are cattle companies who offer you beef. And the only thing that they have to show is that they take bitcoin for the beef. They've still done exceptionally well. You can't point at anybody in the industry that's been in the industry for any point, you know, length of time and say, man, you have to really try to mess it up basically. And so unless that changes, we should get more people on that train. And you know, it's just, it's obvious how much work and money is going into the infrastructure build outs. The guys like Larry Fink and the amount of attention that they're giving this subject is, it's, you know, it's on the tip of their tongue. That's the only thing they talk about. And every single conference and every single stage appearance and TV appearance and media appearance, every single thing that they do when they, you know, have the spotlight on them, they talk. What do they talk about? They talk about their blockchain ETF that they've launched of, of some kind. And Morgan Stanley is just like the rest of them. They're just the slowest one. They think more of themselves, I guess than the rest of them because they are, you know, slower to adopt. I don't know. I think the word conservative is generous, Andrew. I don't know if conservative was the word that I would choose. You know, ignorant would be a more appropriate word, I would say. I think, I think it's a long time coming is, I guess, the point.
- [16:01]
B
Here's the crazy thing with the world of wealth management. Morgan Stanley is seen as fast and very aggressive in the world of wealth management. Right. So amongst their peers, they're the only ones doing this. UBS isn't doing it, you know, bank of America isn't doing it. Merrill lynch, slash, you know, bank of America is doing. Nobody else is doing it, but, but, but they're doing it and again, they, They've got like 6.4 trillion under, under management and inside of there. Yeah. So, so, you know, they've got an audience to, to share it with. Let's say that Scott, you did a show over the weekend, I think with Raul and he said something that I think is, is very prescient as it relates to 2026 and that's this. The amount of, let's call it adoption or use that's happening right now, we've never seen anything like it. We have never seen headlines several times a day, whether it's Morgan Stanley or otherwise. I've gotten to the point where I can't even put together a tweet of all the people involved, all the organizations, institutions, bank, banks, businesses involved in crypto. Now the signal is so, so loud and Price just hasn't caught up. And at some point this year, Price is going to catch. It has to. It absolutely has to. Because the amount of work being done, as Tillman just said, is. It's astronomical. We've never been anywhere close to where we are now. And it's almost following sort of, I guess it's, you know, the idea of tech. I guess we are in the tech industry. Right. I mean, crypto is effectively tech. It's starting to double on itself. Right. So double on, double on, double. So use cases, slash adoption is. It's sort of exponentially growing day over day, week over week, month over month. We can't get away from headlines. Every day that we wake up, there's a new headline about what's happening in crypto. Who's now involved in crypto? Why are they involved in crypto? You know the guy from Coinbase on CNBC today? Yeah. He, he said basically every, every company, every institution, everybody now has a crypto playbook, you know, to the level that they're playing, playing that playbook. Everybody has a playbook now. Everybody does. Yeah.
- [18:40]
A
We've talked about this for years, but there was a time that we'll all remember when if you were the guy at the company who came in with the crypto strategy, you got fired.
- [18:48]
B
Exactly. Right. Yeah.
- [18:49]
A
You know, and then, well, you ended.
- [18:51]
C
Up starting your own company and, and done have done way better than staying at the company.
- [18:56]
A
So Dubai or something. Because nobody was doing that here. But yes. And, and now if you walk in and you're the CFO of a company and you don't have a crypto strategy, you get fired, you're fired. I think that Larry Fink gave us that right. I mean, he gave us the credibility that you had to have that. And once ETFs were on the docket, that became a thing. But I mean, to the point of Coinbase's d' Agostino and to you, there's not a company in the world that at least isn't having a conversation about it. They may be still relatively far out on executing in some way, shape or form, but they're definitely talking about it. I want to just quickly talk about price because we are kind of at 94,000. Yesterday, many pointed out was kind of the first day that price was up and stayed up when the market opened. We've seen this trend for seemingly weeks, if not months that it hits 930 by 1015, we've got a little dip and then we find, goes back up and find a price. Yesterday we didn't really see the consistent selling that we've seen over the days. I guess it'll be interesting to see what happens today. But we're still sitting here now kind of rising through the morning over 94,000 again and we're seeing on Polymarket a 50, 50 chance. Bitcoin surges past 100k this month and the self proclaimed smartest man in the world. Don't know if that's been vetted. Apparently he was really smart about XRP and he thinks we're there in 48 hours. 48 hours. By the way, 94 to 100k is a rounding error.
- [20:23]
C
Yeah, I don't even know why.
- [20:25]
A
Yeah, like I would be very shocked if Bitcoin doesn't test 100 this month, to be honest. So I, I agree with the Poly market. I would take that bet even on the 5050 personally. If you, if you had, if I had to place a bet on it, by the way, I place bets on it basically every day because arch public buying it, assuming it's good, you know, whether it's by January or not, but you know, going up 6, 7% at some point in the next, you know, 25 days seems like a pretty good bet that.
- [20:55]
C
Yeah, I, I was gonna leave that off the table. I didn't, I didn't. We don't. My kids aren't even awake. We don't have to do that, guys. We can leave that alone. No, I. Listen, price is, I'm starting to. The older I get, the less I care about price. And you know, that may sound crazy, but I don't trust it. There are lots of ways in which price has proven to me this Year in particular to be completely different than any other year I've been in crypto and somewhat completely irrational tariffs come out. Bitcoin drops drastically even though it doesn't have a tariff attached to it. You know, those types of. There's just lots of things this year have, that have been head scratchers to me. And when I see a pattern of nothing but head scratchers, to me that pattern speaks of design like that is that's the lever being pulled, if you will, in, in the, you know, in the, by the market makers. And this market is very, very small, no different than silver. It's been, it. Silver's been controlled for 40 years and you know that that guard has changed. The question is, is why? Well, maybe they see a future that's different. I don't know if you guys have read the headlines as to why kind of the, that whole, you know, pricing surge has taken place and there's a lot of theories. So this is just speculation. But a lot of speculation is centered around the fact that, you know, for a long, long time the biggest banks all were short silver and they added.
- [22:32]
A
Shorts every month to Jamie Diamond.
- [22:36]
C
Well, JP Morgan Chase has revert, has changed their position now they're long and the rest of the market can't bite off that chunk of the apple that, that JP Morgan was taking every month. And so there's caused this disjointed in price coupled with the fact that, you know, there's new restrictions and exports out of China so you can't get silver out of China very easily anymore. So those two things have caused like this little, the dam to break, if you will, in this small little market. But the volatility attracts investors and tracks traders, gets it back in the conversation. And that's what we love about bitcoin. If you're going to bet on volatility, bet on bitcoin. I'm just telling you right now, betting on the volatility of the crypto market is a very good bet in my estimation.
- [23:25]
A
I've learned that the easy way over the years, but certainly with arch public. But yeah, I think that silver is a good corollary for what's likely to happen with, with bitcoin in the way that you just described. And I would just add to it by saying after October 10th, I think somebody blew up. Whether it's been this large whale selling, which we can see on chain as the narrative for why we haven't been able to go up even though we've seen increased demand. And all of these banks and institutions adopting it. I think there's pretty clear cut evidence or at least reason to believe that somebody has been a forced seller for a very long time. And when you have a forced seller in the market, maybe that eventually just ends. So it's not even various necessarily as somebody's been aggressively shorting and lifted those shorts and switched positions. There just may have been a lot of coins coming on the market because of that fundamental liquidation event that are going to stop or have stopped at some point.
- [24:24]
C
Well, I was intrigued by what David Bailey said on your show with him where he said essentially there's a handful, you know, three or four people that I can think of that could generate this much selling pressure. And the next comment he made made my eyes get big, which was and if it's one of those groups we have a long way to go. So I don't know, I mean that, that first of all I appreciate him saying that because he obviously is in a unique position, let's call it, as it pertains to information and understanding the markets and passing that information to us is of great value. So thank you for that David. But the, the question I think that you know, has to be asked is who, who is it? One of those groups. What is this as you know, is it manipulation? Because it sure feels like it to me. Look at the timing of the drops that have caused the spike, the debt spirals or the you know, margin calls if you will to kind of waterfall or cascade. They've been on Sunday night at 2am giant 15 minute candle, thin liquidity, massive price movement. I don't know, it smell, it smells like a smoke screen to me. But that's the fun of the markets. You don't, you know, it's going to prove one of us wrong handsomely because the volatility is going to happen. And you know, you don't have like if somebody says oh yeah, I think we're going to be back over 125 this month or test all time highs. I wouldn't disagree with that. But just I, but, but I will say like as a chartist, I wish Chris Sinks was here. That's going to look like this on the chart. And you, you do see that. But it's rare. I mean like, you know, it's, it's not something that I'm counting on as my primary strategy for harvesting the market.
- [26:21]
A
You know, I think you know, climb, climb the wall of or just kind of sl. Continue back up. Then the bears have to buy back in at some point. I Think that's the more common way. But we do have a new narrative that just dropped that I've seen literally no confirmation of. But seems to be the hot new thing is that Venezuela or Maduro himself may have a whole lot of bitcoin. Obviously the Venezuelans started using stablecoins of bitcoin a long time ago as a hedge against their hyperinflating money. I would actually love to get a huge stack of bolivars if somebody can get me some of those before, before they go extinct, like pay a buck for like a brick, you know, but. And that, that may be now property of the good old United States of America as president. I can't comment on it with insider information here in the Oval Office. Like, it's like they've got like 200 bitcoin, but people are saying they can have as much as, you know, like sailor, well, listen, if that bitcoin or something like that. And of course we know that the way to build a strategic bitcoin reserve or strategic oil reserve is just go take that from someone else, you know.
- [27:35]
C
Well, listen, can you imagine that headline is going to be like this many bitcoin headed to the US Bitcoin strategic reserve, criminal seized, blah blah blah.
- [27:46]
A
CNBC, McKenzie who's awesome. Venezuela may have quietly amassed a bitcoin reserve or tens of billions of dollars. US Seizes those coins and adds them to its own strategic reserve. You're looking at potentially substantial bitcoin getting locked up for years.
- [28:02]
C
So do you remember the Chinese woman that just got arrested for in the UK? 61,000 Bitcoin.
- [28:10]
A
If she had 61,000, we got 126,000 from the. I don't, I can't remember now if it's pig slaughtering or butchering, but they were slaughtering some pigs and apparently I get you, that's not what happened. But you know that we just took that, right? That's ours. Of course.
- [28:28]
B
What'S not being said in some of these headlines is the term amassed is doing a whole lot of work, heavy lifting. Okay, so. So if, if Maduro and Venezuela have 600,000 Bitcoin, they took it from the people that had it amongst their citizens. I don't want to overplay my hand here, but my fiance immigrated from Venezuela three years ago. Her entire family immigrated six years ago. And so I've got a front row seat on what it's like to have lived there. And it's what it's like to try and communicate and help the people, their family members that are still there.
- [29:09]
A
I assume she's very excited by this.
- [29:11]
B
Oh, she is over the moon. She couldn't sleep the night that it happened. Just, you know, like over the moon about it. But there, there are realities on the ground associated with what was going on there and what's currently going on there. You know, to. There were, there were two or three different prices for all goods during Chavez and Maduro's reign. So you'd go to a grocery store and there'd be the government prices in Bolivar, but there'd also be prices in dollars because that was the currency that worked there. Whereas you could go to a local bank and you could have conversations and do. And do commerce with dollars. But the bank would have to tell you, you only have a period of time that we can do this because at some point we're gonna have to report it. They're just going to take it out of your account anyways. The level of messed up associated with this stuff is off the charts. So to, to get like a package to send Christmas gifts to her cousins, she would have to go to somebody's house. The guy's got a garage full of boxes that she.
- [30:22]
C
The government just robs them of everything.
- [30:25]
B
You have to send in July. And they wouldn't get there for it. Wouldn't get there for four months. It's just extraordinary. So, yeah, people that are Venezuelans just in mass, are thrilled about this now. They're very aware that there's going to be a version. Chaos. There's going to be a version of chaos for a while. But the bottom line is, is that that chaos is much, much better than, you know, you can't say or do the wrong thing or else you're going to end up in jail. Like just flat out there would be checkpoints everywhere where the checkpoint wasn't about, do you have extra cash? Do you have whatever? Because they could then take that cash and they could pay off the cops. What the cops were really looking for is, let me see your phone, Unlock your phone. And have you said or communicated with anybody about the regime that we don't like? And if you have, you're. We're literally. It's the meme straight to jail. Like, that's, that's literally the. On the ground what it was.
- [31:23]
A
I tweeted this. Yeah, I think yesterday people got super pissed. But I said, just because I, you know, I like to. But, you know, stir the pot. If you need to print a shit ton of money but want to offset inflation, just steal a shit ton of oil and make it Your own right, because we all know that more oil supply means lower oil prices, means people are happy, means you win election. And this can provide a smokescreen for all the money printing. So people were very mad. They said I had tbs. To anyone who thinks I have tds, just go back to my Biden tweets and you'll realize that I have government.
- [31:56]
B
That'S not even about Trump.
- [31:59]
A
This is a United States government thing. But I just want to point out crypto Hayes, Arthur Hayes, who everybody loves his writing, literally a day later puts out an entire article on exactly this, saying they need to run the government hot and the main thing they need to do is keep oil prices down.
- [32:13]
B
Boom.
- [32:13]
A
Right? So I'm not like the only one out here who is floating this, I guess, conspiracy theory. I'm not saying that's the only reason we went into Venezuela, but like, to act like it's just a humanitarian mission is.
- [32:26]
B
Sure the humanitarian part of it is, is a positive consequence.
- [32:31]
A
That's right.
- [32:32]
B
You know, I'm not gonna, I'm not a politics guy. I'm not gonna, you know, pontificate.
- [32:38]
C
Well, both can be true at the same time. You know what I mean? Like, those aren't, those aren't.
- [32:43]
A
That's what I'm competing.
- [32:45]
B
Probably always true, right? Both is probably always true. Like there's not some sort of military action that's taken that somehow is, is pure as the, you know, the wind driven snow. But that's never existed in the history of time, so why would it be now? But all that being said, I mean, again, I just, I have a front seat to, you know, the world.
- [33:08]
C
No, I've appreciated being able to ask you questions about it because I honestly, I was naive too. Like, what, what does somebody from Venezuela think about this? They think it's a gross overstep or do they think it's something that's, you know, in the best interest of their people? And it sounds like it's, you know, a resounding holy cow. We needed to get rid of this guy and we needed somebody that was above the current power structure.
- [33:32]
A
I think the big question for everyone is what comes next? That's what I keep pointing out, like, with libertarian or unaffiliated political leanings. For me, like, I just get uncomfortable anytime a country intervenes in the affairs of another country. So I think, like, it's very clear that Maduro had to go. I'm glad he's gone. I think that's amazing. I'm just skeptical about what comes next. I mean, when you see the. His right hand woman is being installed as president and Trump saying, you're gonna do what we say or your fate is gonna be worse than Maduro's. And if you watched her, she was being sworn in by her brother with Maduro's son overseeing it. And Trump said that the democratically elected Machado, who, you know, 70% of the vote, doesn't have the respect to run the government. I'm just a little skeptical of obviously it's gonna be in the United States.
- [34:21]
B
The difficulty of it, the difficulty of it on the ground and, and this is like some of my conversations with Cynthia is they've gone 25 years with nobody having to figure anything out because they've lived under Chavez and then Maduro as dictators. Right. So it has been a communist, socialist. Socialist is being kind a communist government now for 25 years. So nobody had any choices and nobody ever thought, what are we going to do if and when, you know, we get, we just want to be, we, we want to be out of this. What do we do out of this? So there's, there's not meaningful planners that are already there. Right. So again, it's going to be messy for a while. What are the outcomes? I don't know. I'm not going.
- [35:04]
C
Well, I mean, we know in 20 days we should, we should expect to hear something about Greenland. I mean, shouldn't we? Oh, that's all right.
- [35:14]
A
We got that.
- [35:17]
B
Well, again, the overall way, if you.
- [35:19]
A
Want to talk about socialism, I don't know if you guys caught this one, but this is Mamdani's tenant director, SEO Weaver, who said, well, transition from treating property as an individual good to a collective good. Whites especially will be impacted. So hey, like, you know, Maduro coming to a state city near you, I.
- [35:36]
C
Just like the lighting in her studio. That's amazing.
- [35:39]
A
Obviously a very serious person.
- [35:41]
B
So again, you know, politics is politics. But you know, the Democrats were on a path to probably, you know, take over both houses of Congress in 2026. Mamdani may find a way to screw that up for him. You know, he's not backing down and he's going to, you know, he's going to shine a light on socialist policies as bright as he possibly can. And so, you know, we'll see, you know, we'll see what that looks like in 2026. But he's doing a, doing a great job of creating commercials for the party in, in.
- [36:21]
C
Well, I would say that this show was about money, I. E. Bitcoin and you know, My granddad used to say something when he was alive. I'd say, are you a Republican or a Democrat? And he would say, I give to both of them because one of them is going to win. And I will tell you, whatever your stance is, obviously the financial markets really like what happened because we're seeing a pretty massive push on all fronts. Yeah, exactly. So, I mean, it can't either. That's the scapegoat that they chose to hide. Liquidity being pushed into the market for other reasons, I. E. Or like you said, somebody has finished their selling pressure and it's time to. To take it north.
- [37:07]
A
Yeah, I mean, I'm looking, you know, gold's been up, silver's up, stocks are up. I mean, bonds are like. I mean, copper, new high. It's like everything's up. Bitcoin's up.
- [37:17]
C
Yeah.
- [37:19]
A
Which is digital copper. I don't know, I just made that up.
- [37:25]
B
Well, I mean, there's ETFs now for gifts and memes. So, you know, digital copper, you can, you can do your thing on that and create an ETF on it.
- [37:35]
A
Yeah, let's pivot from, let's. Let's pivot from socialism and politics because it's so popular. Yeah. Capitalism and why Arch public is awesome. So I fired off this tweet yesterday and I just wanted to share it because it gives us an idea of where I'm at with my portfolio. As anyone who's been watching knows, I've been running this on Robinhood. We're about to launch one with another exchange as well. Or I'm going to do another large public portfolio because I like money and getting more bitcoin and this has been an exceptional way to do it. But I just basically did a quick performance review yesterday because I took a look. I don't take a look on a daily basis, but basically the market's down. What? Bitcoin's down 24% currently from the all time high. We started at the all time high and I made my biggest purchase at 125,000 because I told you guys we got to get in. And so I forced the algo to do things I wanted it to do rather than doing things it necessarily wanted to do. But here you go. I started at the dead top. I've been averaging down the entire way. I kept adding money. We were using Solana and Eth Volatility, obviously to buy more bitcoin, but I still have huge stacks of those. I'm down 5% on the Bitcoin stack after it bought three times on Sunday using the intelligence algorithms because I'm running all the different, different ones. The.625-725-8525 I think is what they're called. I can't open trading view to show it. So I'm down about 5% on the Bitcoin. I'm basically even on Solana. Rounding error within, I mean on Ethereum, within 1% and slightly down on Solana a few 6, 7% something like that. Almost 3 Bitcoin purchase. I think it's 2.89 Bitcoin purchase so far. So that's 58% of my portfolio. Large stack of Ethan Solana. Very some cash left but I continue to just add cash because that's my goal is to accumulate Bitcoin. My goal is not to trade. And so I'm down basically 20k on the 480k invested and the market's down, Bitcoin's down 24% and these altcoins are down 35, 40 plus percent across the board. Right?
- [39:39]
C
Well that is what you call smoothing out a curve, right. When you have a volatile asset, which is definitely bitcoin, but all the altcoins in particular are highly volatile. You know, SUI is one of the ones that I think a lot of our customers use the algo to trade the volatility on. I mean it was up 12% yesterday. So you know, when you have an asset that can go 12% north or south in a given day, you know, cash management is king. And smoothing the curve out is, is what your objective is. Why? Well, because volatility is like a knife that can cut both ways. It's either your greatest friend or your worst enemy. It can't be in the middle. Why? Because you either know how to capitalize on it and to harvest it in the form of a yield farming strategy where you know you're harvesting, when it goes up you're taking profits and when it goes down you're buying. When it goes up you're taking profits. And when you like that type of a system across many time periods, many fronts, managing that type of a purchasing strategy is incredibly complicated. It consumes you, takes tons of hours of your life away from you. That's where automation comes in. You get all of the benefits of spreading your capital out across the cost curve, smoothing the dips out. So when there is a 40% pullback in the market, you're not down 40% because you didn't top blast all of your money and smash by it at 125 which Human nature told you to do. Which is the definition of why most.
- [41:20]
A
People you're going straight to 150.
- [41:22]
C
Well, listen, when you break all time highs and you do it on convincing volume and everybody's talking about all the development that's taking place in an industry, it's very easy to get to a place where you, you drank the Kool Aid. We've all been there, we've all regretted it. And this is a way to self govern that, that emotional, you know, enticement and to remove it from the equation so that you're not a slave to it in the, in the process and in, in your planning. So you can set a course that is specific to your objectives, that's user driven, that's exactly what you want and then you forget it and you don't have to then check it every day. But I mean that just the statement you said at the very beginning is, is very different than I think most people's experience with the crypto space. Crypto space is so volatile. I mean, I'm checking it. You know, before I created automation to check it for me, I was checking it at 2 in the morning. I had alerts set to go off. There'd be nights where my phone would just go nuts and it would be because we were crashing or pumping. And I needed to know that and I needed to know it now because that's when you make money, right?
- [42:31]
A
And also when I started in crypto, like in 2016, I don't know if people remember this, but exchanges did not have stop losses. You were stuck, you went to bed.
- [42:42]
D
With a position spot or otherwise, you literally couldn't set a stop loss to close it.
- [42:48]
A
In 2016, even into 2017, Binance added it, Bittrex didn't have it and Coinbase did not have it.
- [42:54]
C
Well, this is a nuance, Scott. I'm glad you brought it up. Let's talk about it for a second that we're really proud of. But most, we never, most of the time we never get this deep in the feature set to be able to highlight this. Automation is the best way to set a limit order. Why do I say that? Well, because it's off the order book. You're not posting it to the exchange, you're not letting all the market makers see it. If you post a big limit order and it's a big enough one, magically the price will go there. It's just unbelievable how this happens. I don't know why, I can't explain it, but truthfully, I'm Being facetious. It's because you put it on a billboard on i10. Literally. I mean, it's like every major car that's going by the market is going, oh, there's a monster liquidity pool here at this price. I wonder if we should go tap into it. Well, the point is, is like, when you set automated triggers, they're not on the order book. No one can see them but you. You're the one that's commanding them. But they're executed the second. I mean, more than the. The millisecond that that trigger takes place, boom, the computer acts on your behalf. That is being ready for the market. That is not reactive, you know, trading, but really preemptive trading and. Or proactive trading.
- [44:13]
B
There is a.
- [44:14]
A
You know, I don't know who you were texting. I know Andrew was texting the basement, so.
- [44:20]
B
No, I was not texting the basement. I was texting staff at Brown Foreman for our bourbon tasting at Bitcoin Investor Week.
- [44:27]
A
That's better. Okay, continue. Meaningful.
- [44:31]
B
Meaningful.
- [44:31]
C
You pass the test. It was fun and something that we get to participate in.
- [44:36]
A
The phone was very deeply in the front corner of the camera.
- [44:42]
B
To me, the. The math is what speaks. And, you know, Scott, you. You'd effectively would be down about a hundred grand if you'd have just, you know, been all in on. On spot and bought, you know, Smash. Smashbot based on the percentages that you've talked about, and you're down 20k instead. So that's a delta of $80,000. That, that is a. That is the nature and the reason why people get into hedge funds is when there are downturns, when there is volatility, do you have a system or a process by which you're avoiding that volatility or benefiting from it? And so to have that at your fingertips to effectively be able to put a hedge fund in your pocket in. In the systems that have. That have been created, and the opportunity to. To. To adjust those systems however you want because they're yours effectively. It's a, you know, it's a giant leap forward in terms of innovation. It's a giant leap forward in terms of the ability to accumulate or trade in the crypto space. And you can only find it at Arch Public. Well, if you.
- [45:50]
C
If you think about.
- [45:52]
B
Right, it's free. If you. If you want to try it out, say, well, you know what? Been hearing this for a long time. Been hearing it for a year now about crypto and all and Arch Public and their tools on Scott's show But I don't want to pay to get into some higher level, use it for free and, and give us feedback. We, we'd love to hear it.
- [46:12]
C
Well, there's a major difference on the upside too. We're, we're still halfway between the high and the low.
- [46:20]
A
Right.
- [46:20]
C
We went down to 76. We're at about 95 and we were up at 126. We're like right in the halfway point. Here's another disadvantage to buying at the top or not using a system like this. Scott has a lot of orders that have been triggered between 126 and where we are right now. Each one of those orders has an individual cost basis. Each one of those orders has programmatically positioned itself to where it won't sell that until it's above the cost basis. And he has his prescribed amount of profit on that trade. So what's going to happen is, is as price goes back up to all time high, he's not just getting back to even, he's making money all the way up. Every trade that's triggered is a profitable trade. Why? Well, because he, he has programmatically put the cost basis in that trade and it's not sell it until it's above its cost basis. So anytime he gets a trigger event on his phone, says hey, you got you sold something, he knows that he's scraping profits like that's an incredible that that that will make you, if you find yourself going, oh man, I hate selling. This will change your mind about hating selling. Every time bell goes off, it's like the dinner bell. You know that you have done a prudent job of yield farming, of taking advantage of the volatility of the market.
- [47:50]
B
Well, and if you're diametrically opposed to ever selling any of your bitcoin, we have setups that never sell for you as well.
- [47:57]
A
Yeah, mine are mostly set up to continue selling the ethical positions to bring in more cash so that I can buy more bitcoin.
- [48:05]
C
And I'll give everybody a teaser into the development at Arch Public, but that is a common theme that we hear from people is I don't want to ever sell my bitcoin. Well, there's a reason to maintain a percentage of cash to percentage of equity and there's a time to take profits. So if you're a, if you're like Andrew said, opposed to taking profits by selling the physical asset we are working on right now and, and we will come out with a product that's going to allow you to sell paper Bitcoin as a hedge against your spot holdings so you can hedge against price fluctuations without selling your primary Bitcoin. That tool can be worked, you know, used in conjunction with the accumulation side as a very natural way to balance a portfolio and balance the risk as the volatility spikes and or dips without having to sell. Spot is I guess, the point.
- [49:05]
B
Right.
- [49:05]
A
Should we talk about this real quick while we got a few minutes left?
- [49:08]
C
Yep, absolutely. Yeah. We're having a lot of fun. We've had lots of conversations since we went live. We are open for business, we are taking capital, accredited investors only. But what we are trying to do is prove to the bitcoin treasury market that there's a better way to buy Bitcoin. We don't believe you should be buying bitcoin as a company predicated on a debt mechanism. We believe you should be stacking bitcoin no different than, you know, our recommendation to all retail users. Stack it with money that you've made in proportions that you can afford to lose. Stack it with a percentage of your net profits. I think we started at the show, at the beginning of the show saying that, you know, some of the big banks have said 4%. Fine, if that's your number, then take the 4% out of your net profit number every month. Right. Take accumulated over time. That's what Future Fund 1 is. We are a real estate fund. We're going to take the initial 20% of every dollar that we raise and we're going to buy Bitcoin with it. We're going to take 80% of those dollars and we're going to buy businesses that are high cash yielding businesses and, or real estate or participate in businesses. We're going to take all the revenue attached to those endeavors and we're going to buy bitcoin every month with it. So it's a natural way to take net revenue attached to real estate and attached to business operations and dollar cost average IT using our proprietary software and taking advantage of the dips and focusing on, you know, if somebody asked me, well, what do you want your cost curve to look like? I want it to look the exact opposite of Michael Saylor's and I want it to be as consistent at the bottom of every single dip. I want a big green or a big orange dot and that is our objective is to buy bitcoin consistently with money that is profit so that we're never a forced seller.
- [51:08]
A
I like the 100% bonus depreciation as a result of the big beautiful bill that you get from this. So it's not only that you're buying, first of all, you're not yellowing into random real estate. These are proven existing businesses with a partner that's running these businesses. So it's not, they make money, it's guaranteed. But also you get the massive tax benefit of taking profits that you've made during the year and putting into here and being able to appreciate it against your tax bill entirely. Not an accountant, but if you talk to yours, they might say something similar.
- [51:42]
C
Yeah, it's a, it's a very obviously the big beautiful bill is opened up a lot of capital coffers. Bitcoin we think has the strongest value proposition as it pertains to a force multiplier in any business. And so if you take a handful of, you know, profitable real estate backed businesses and you funnel the profits of those businesses, you know, 50% in some cases, 100% of net operating income in some cases flowing back into bitcoin purchases, we think six years from now we're going to be really happy from, from both perspectives, the appreciation of the real estate, the tax benefits attached to the, to the entire vehicle and coupled with the bitcoin potential price potential. So great Stu stuff. We'd love to talk to you about it if you're interested. If you're a real estate person and just want to poke holes in it and tell us that we, you know, messed up, we'd love to hear that criticism as well. Come, you know, schedule a call with us. We'll, we'll have as long of a conversation about all the details as you need. We can get you access to the data room if you're accredited and we'd love to carry on a conversation.
- [52:51]
A
We're not doing criticism. Don't call us and criticize us.
- [52:55]
C
Listen, that's how you sharpen your spear, you know, agree quickly with thine adversary. You gotta, you know, listen to your critics so you can make a better product.
- [53:04]
A
At the end of the day, drama opinions loosely held. So we got our future fund.archpublic.com and of course archpublic.com to check out the algorithms. Andrew, any final thoughts?
- [53:16]
B
Final thoughts are, is 2026 going to be a banner year? Man, I, I don't want to make any more price predictions because I've been wrong three out of the four times I've done it. Nobody remembers the one I was right. So I've learned my lesson. There's, but it's, the setups are extraordinary and I just saw a tweet by Jeff Park. It says, we are six months away from America's 250th birthday. I wouldn't fade the US markets going into that. So, you know, I think we're set up in a unique way and so act accordingly.
- [53:49]
A
Yeah. I mean, as President of the United States, wholeheartedly.
- [53:55]
C
Well, I can tell you unequivocally, for the last five years of Arch Public's existence, first quarter has been the best quarter every year. I mean, almost every year. First quarter has been really, really fantastic from a trading perspective. So hopefully we can continuation event. I think a lot of, you know, we overthink it. I think, you know, the money coming back in the market, the pump, and we. We want to attach it to like, you know, the headline that we think is the most relevant at the end of the day, you know, it might just be cycles of money like flow. It might just be in the new year and everybody's done with their taxes and everybody's focused on making money this year. You know, who knows?
- [54:34]
A
People care again. Yeah, exactly.
- [54:36]
C
People are back from vacation.
- [54:38]
A
Yeah, I. I agree with that. All right, guys, that's all we got for you today. Sorry I missed you last Tuesday, you know.
- [54:46]
C
Hey, you were skiing with the family. I was proud of you taking time out.
- [54:51]
A
How's that snow out there in Colorado? Pretty good.
- [54:53]
C
Oh, man. We had 17 acres open on Snowmass Mountain on opening day. That's the worst. It's the worst year I've ever seen in my entire life.
- [55:01]
A
On. I usually go to Snowmass that week of every year, so usually we used to go the week before Christmas. We would have been hiking. Right. But we've started going Christmas over New Year's. We still, I guess, would have been hiking. We went to France, to Corsair. Oh, nice. And still it was. I mean, it was a nice skating rink, but we skied every day and it was great. But there was.
- [55:21]
C
You don't like Napa. When Napa runs out of wine, you go over to France and drink.
- [55:25]
A
I rolled in there. It was 54 degrees on the first day that we were skiing.
- [55:30]
B
Wow.
- [55:30]
A
And. But, yeah, I mean, the kids were crushing it. We were going still down. The hard stuff was very slidy. Emmy jacked up her wrist. Super bad. Yeah. Because, you know, sliding all over the place. Although she did it walking, not skiing.
- [55:42]
C
That's awesome. And, yeah, I like seeing it. Keep sending those. That's fun. Family's time.
- [55:49]
A
I'm back in Snowmass with the Holloways. All right, guys. That's all we got. Gotta run. See you soon. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you, Tillman, everybody. Check out both the fund and arch public because money is good and you can make it very easy. Thank you.
- [56:03]
C
See you guys.
- [56:05]
D
Everyone's looking for smarter ways to build their Bitcoin stack. Well, here's one most people overlook. You can earn Bitcoin every single time you spend without ever buying it directly. That's where today's video sponsor Gemini comes in. The Gemini credit card gives you instant crypto rewards on every purchase. And there's no annual fee. It's a MasterCard World Elite, so you can use it anywhere. MasterCard is accepted. Gas, groceries, travel, all of it.
- [56:31]
A
Now here's the breakdown.
- [56:32]
D
4% back on gas rides in transit, 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and 1% on everything else. The best part, you're earning Bitcoin or one of 50 plus other cryptocurrencies automatically deposited to your Gemini account. For me, it's been a really effortless way to build exposure to Bitcoin Just by spending like normal and doing the things that I do every day. I've literally earned Bitcoin just from filling up my car with gas. And historically, bitcoin Rewards held for one year have appreciated. 279% on average. You're not just spending, you're building a portfolio. This is the Gemini credit card. Sleek, straightforward, and one of the easiest ways to turn everyday purchases into long term value. To get started, look at the link in the Description and get $200 in Bitcoin when you spend $3,000 in your first 90 days. Click the link in the description to apply and start earning instantly. See rates and fees in the description for more info.