← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
Scott Melker
NYDIG Research says that bitcoin should go up roughly $42,000 from this area based on companies buying bitcoin, led of course by Michael Saylor and strategy, who once again bought Bitcoin this week and is looking to double up and go for $84 billion in a raise to buy more bitcoin. We're going to talk about that and of course everything happening in macro right now on Macro Monday with Dave James and Mike.
- [00:32]
Mike
Let's go.
- [00:33]
Dave
Let's do, let's do.
- [00:48]
Scott Melker
What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Going to bring the gentleman on right now, Mike James and Dave, I apologize for my congestion. I have a 100% hit rate of going to crypto conferences and long trips and coming back sick every single time. I think it's a lot of handshakes and airplanes and airports, but man, it's guaranteed. But it was quite a week actually at token 2049 in Dubai. Still a lot of excitement obviously surrounding the industry, but let's just dive in here. I had this blissful moment, Mike, I told you I realized when I woke up this morning I hadn't checked any macro news in a week. It's wonderful. I didn't hear Trump. I didn't talk about tariffs. I didn't know what interest rates are. I looked this morning, I was like.
- [01:35]
Dave
Wow, gold's back up.
- [01:36]
Scott Melker
I had not checked a gold chart. It was a nice break but maybe you can catch me up.
- [01:40]
Mike
Yeah, well so on the facts of the year so far, gold's up 27%, crude oil's down 20, Bitcoin's unchanged. I think that's going to continue. That's and I think it's going to problem as beta is down up. Sorry. So not piss off Dave. The S&P 500 is down 3%. But the key thing from our morning meeting to catch up what was thinking is Anna came on. She says first of all the Fed's priced for about 100% of a first rate cut in July. He thinks that's too soon. What the Fed's thinking right now. Their core inflation indication for end of the year is 3.5 to 4%. That's almost double their target. And he thinks the Fed that's actually enough for the Fed to talk about rate hikes. That's going to be really go over well with Mr. Trump. Powell may jawbone into pricing less hikes at the meeting. Is what she expects. And she's pointing out if you look at container ship things coming from China to the US or just leaving China, it's major drop off and gonna see shortages for the holiday season. And there's no way that even now if Trump's tariffs were dropped to zero that we could offset not having shortages. Shortages for the holiday season. Jean is still the same. Her quote was large cap and small cap stocks have butted up against good resistance. The markets toying with the idea of recession risk emerging but not showing it yet in terms of PE21X is clearly too elevated for her macro model showing recession. You said there is a down, downdraft in PE growth rates. A lot of the earnings were okay so far but the valuation models are still expecting enormous earnings growth in tech, which is unlikely because they're starting to slow guidance momentum has been extraordinarily bad and basically it's the lowest since the great financial crisis. So from our meeting still pretty much the same that it's more a down track trajectory. We've had nine off sessions. Here's the key thing you need To Know and 9Up sessions, rolling S&P 500. We all know that usually happens. That's usually signed shortcoming.
- [03:45]
Scott Melker
It's an interesting situation because honestly as I said I wasn't really tracking it, but we've basically retraced the entire Liberation Day dump on stocks. So quite a V shaped recovery. And I just took a look though at the qs, obviously the NASDAQ here on the weekly you're right at the 50mA. So speaking of that technical resistance that you mentioned. And you're at right at the 200 exactly. Tapped on the daily. So this really is for those who follow charts, a moment where you're gonna wanna see what the NASDAQ does certainly this week.
- [04:14]
Mike
Well it's also a key thing is it's all the same chart. You overlay bitcoin with that with Fed easing expectations which were about 60% for the June meeting, now down to 30%. They're all the same chart. They go and been going down together and up together this year. I just expect that to continue. To me the risks is it's all to me tilted off of bitcoin. It's got to stay above 95,000. And there to me the stop thing we used to do in a trading pitch we'd always ask them brokers, hey, where's the stops? I think the stop is 85,000, don't want to trade below that. I think we will but for now, it's, it's hanging in there.
- [04:48]
Scott Melker
Yeah. I would even put that at 91 personally, you know, even higher at this point. I would like to see it hold. But yeah, Dave, you're, you're shrugging. So you think that, that, that that number is irrelevant, obviously.
- [04:58]
Dave
Well, I, I think that just, just go, Dave, very.
- [05:02]
Scott Melker
Dave, you're very quiet. Do you guys, Is he very quiet for you? Might be, yeah. Maybe James, you can jump in with your thoughts as he adjusts for Dave.
- [05:14]
James
I've got, I want to hear what Dave has to say about all this. But look, we, we're still in that period of uncertainty. There's no doubt about it. Right. So everything that Mike is voicing is, is everybody's trying to get a handle on this market, try to get solid footing. Are we in a short, is this just been on short coverage and that's just the recovery of that V recovery you're talking about or is there something more grounded? Are we really going in a direction that the market believes that tariffs will not be so destructive, that we can continue building again on the asset side? But the problem is that there's no way around it. We were overvalued in general markets. There's just no way around it. Mike has been right about that for a long time. It's just a question of are we going to keep going? Is this bubble just going to keep expanding or is, is there going to be liquidity that catches up to it? We can talk about that more later, but I want to hear what Dave has to say.
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Dave
Yeah. Can you guys hear me now?
- [06:19]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Yep.
- [06:20]
Dave
Okay, fine. So I just switched to the AirPods. I'm trying to use the, the other microphone for here. So look, a couple things. First of all, the most important thing to take away from the last few weeks is bitcoin and stocks trade together during the day directionally, but the beta is totally gone. In fact, bitcoin is essentially been flat and been actually up over the last few weeks. It's very hard to forget that bitcoin was triple bottomed in the high 70s. Right. Long before this nine day rally in the queues. The queues have quote caught up. But I think basically what you're seeing there is a liquidity trade. There are certain things going on with bitcoin that do make it different and they are very macro oriented things. It's called supply and demand. That's the first lesson that you learn in economics and it's important to understand that because we've seen a plethora of on chain and off chain indicators that tell us that there are whales. Larger investors are accumulating, investors that are new investors are accumulating from. Everyone talks about what BlackRock is buying. BlackRock's not buying, Dick. What's happening is lots and lots of people and lots and lots of institutions and they're coming out of the woodwork, own Bitcoin via the institutional channels which really are MicroStrategy. And I find it hysterical that the Arizona State Retirement System is one of the owners of MicroStrategy. After, you know, Katie Hobbs deciding that she wanted to buck and not learn the lessons from the last election, that's going to do her really well in two years. And you know, it's just different, right? They're patient accumulators and crypto people selling. And we've been seeing that, we've been talking about it for six weeks. It's been going on for six weeks. And if you don't take that away and you don't understand that gold is likely to be leading this, this, this trade of, this liquidity trade higher. I mean gold is the same place. Pretty much everything is the same as it's been. It was four weeks ago. I mean, you can look at it. Although this V bottom is interesting. The other thing I'll object to is, you know, while I generally agree with a lot of what you're saying, Mike, you're using what happened to fit a narrative and it's just not true. Short covering rallies are vicious, very strong, bursty rallies. You actually we could roll the tape back a couple of weeks ago. You even have said it multiple times in your life. I've heard you say it because it's true, which is that the most vicious rallies are in bear markets. So a nine day grind higher is not a vicious rally. It's a nine day grind higher. Now what is it? It's not short covering, it's people caught offsides. People, the doomers having to say they're not dooming and the people who put their money on the sidelines trying to allocate. Now, I personally think it's a bull trap. I tend to agree with you. So this is not a statement where I disagree with the direction that you're saying, but let's at least get it right. Short covering is generally much more spiky than in nine straight days. Nine straight days. This reminds me so much of 2001 in the NASDAQ when it rallied into June after the March ban and things went south later. The difference between now in 2001, there's a major difference is the policymakers can't afford to shut down the liquidity spigots. And I think that's really important. Arthur Hayes did a really good job of explaining the policy tools in his most recent missive. And he also gave a speech at Token which said the same thing. Powell may very well not cut interest rates. In fact, he even said that. But the likelihood that he's going to keep the market drained of liquidity is really unlikely, whether it's, quote, Larry's big print or just, look, I got the bazooka, guys. Don't cross me. That's basically what we're looking at. And the markets are basically saying that people realize that there's no other place to go. And that's where you're seeing these things. Now, I am much more bullish on Bitcoin than I am on the qs because I think that the other point that you made, which is 100% right, is earnings. But if you can explain to me why corporate earnings has anything to do with Bitcoin, then I'd like to understand that relationship, because I don't see that the real question is, is. Is Bitcoin gaining adoption? And the answer to that question seems to be yes. Now, are there. You know, we can talk about Ethereum and everyone saying that. It's really the most interesting conversation, I think, in crypto these days, which is half the world seems to say Ethereum is massively undervalued. Look at what's going on in the network. And half the world is saying, are you kidding me? It'll never actually achieve it. Look at where it is. It's being passed by Solana, it's being passed by this, by that. But all of those are on the earnings side. And if you drill into corporations, I mean, corporate earnings are going to be a function of the economy, and everybody is still in a holding pattern. I don't think we've ever seen anything like it. And I'm pretty old. I've seen a lot of things. I've never seen the entire economy where you could talk to two different people, both of whom are respectable, both of whom have. And I'm personifying it, but doesn't really matter. And one will say, oh, everything's going to be fine. These guys are moderating or whatever. And others are just saying, oh, my God, it's doom and gloom. Sorry, doom and gloom. And we're going to see, you know, economic catastrophe. You're going to see unemployment is going to, you Know, I've seen people thinking unemployment is going to be at 8% by August. I've seen others saying unemployment will be right around the 5% level, where, you know, kind of it is now. And I don't think I've ever seen this wide breadth of difference. I mean, if you guys. I mean, the fact that there is an incredible breadth of. It's been that way for a while. Yeah, but it's been way. This is. This is strange, and it just is strange.
- [12:13]
James
Well, I think David has it. Some of it has to be political, too, you know, because you have the mainstream media that is just shredding Trump, no matter what he does. Vivek, no matter what he does. You know, Elon, no matter what he does, they just absolutely annihilate them. And headlines one after another after another after another, after you pull up the Bloomberg headlines, nothing against Bloomberg, I actually really like Bloomberg. But you pull up the Bloomberg headlines, it's just one after another of just how many missteps this administration is making and how it's all negative. You know, so that, that's part of the problem. And so you've got things like the University of Michigan survey that, you know, I've written all about this before, where they survey 600 people over and over and over and over again. And guess what? They're by and large, extraordinarily heavily weighted toward the liberal side. They just are. It's just what it is. I don't know why they don't mix it. Mix it up and try to, you know, make that survey a little bit more or a little bit less political, less leaning, left leaning, but it is. And so you've got the entire street that's reacting to things like that. And, and so you have a barbell of. Of opinion is what's happened here. That's what we've settled into. And that barbell of opinion has left the left side who hate Trump and the Trump derangement syndrome side, that no matter what he does, this is awful. It's gonna be terrible. The economy is terrible, the inflation's gonna get worse. There's gonna be no jobs. Those are those surveys. And the other side, you've got people saying, we shut the border. Yeah. We should push back on tariffs and we should push to bring manufacturing back United States. And so we agree with what Trump is doing, and we agree with Elon cutting fraud and fat out of the government in his Doge Commission. Whereas on the other side, you've got people like Elizabeth Warren screaming and warning senior citizens that their Social Security can be taken away, which is absolutely, categorically false. But, you know, that's the. So that's what people are reading. They're just. It's a barbell of opinion in, in my opinion. And that's kind of where we're at. And that's why you're hearing two sides of the street.
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Scott Melker
I would argue we have TVS on both sides. That's the barbell. It's can do no wrong, can only do wrong and nothing in between.
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Dave
Right.
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Scott Melker
And you can't judge any human being or any administration or.
- [14:46]
Dave
It is amazing. You know that. That part is amazing. But look, the one thing markets like, and if you ask why did the markets have nine straight days of rally, which is, which is interesting because it has only happened three other times. So this is not a normal occurrence. It's because the market has come to the conclusion that his treasury secretary is kind of in charge and going to keep things moving in a certain direction. And that's what people think. Whether that's true or not, we'll find out. But that's certainly what the last nine days have been about. And here we are Monday morning. No freak out, no panic. But the only thing that's really interesting about it, looking at the futures, is oil continues to trend lower. Of course, there was a story out of the Middle east talking about Saudi Arabia pumping more, yada, yada, yada. This has been probably Mike's best call in the entire time I've known him is that oil was going to trend back down.
- [15:43]
Scott Melker
And that was when everyone was calling for 150 at 110 or 120.
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Dave
Absolutely right. Absolutely right. The one but here, and it's a very important but from a macro Is oil trending down is massively. I don't want to say deflationary, I'd say disinflationary. It's the only non. It is a big deal to offset other things that are going on now. Will oil's price drop be enough working through the food chain to bring food prices? My prediction is simple. You're going to see the administration talking about inflation and you're going to see the opponents of the administration talk about core inflation. Why? Because food and energy prices are going to be driven largely by oil and the core will have less impact from it. And so you're going to see kind of divergence there over the next few months. And that is especially when you talk about year on year, I mean, oil, what's the price of gasoline down year over year? Now and that filters through Trump. It's a fair amount. And it will filter through trucking. It will filter through pretty much everything. So you're going to see that on one side and tariffs on the other. And it's going to be. That's where the pressure on the Fed's going to come from. It's going to be consumer prices reacting to oil.
- [16:58]
Scott Melker
Go ahead, James.
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James
Yeah, I was going to say let's talk about that. The Fed, honestly, I don't think the Fed cares about where inflation is now. They're like 2, 3% is fine, whatever. They don't care. That's not what they're worried about. They're worried about liquidity, period. And right now we got a bump in liquidity because we had better tax payments than the treasury expected, which was a big positive. They filled the treasury general account up to I think it's 600 billion now. Mike, is that right? I think that's what it says now. But the Fed's worried about liquidity. That's really truly all they care about unless unemployment spikes. Then they're going to turn on lower rates and just flood the capital with liquidity. But we're not there yet. So they can hold steady and they can say we're not doing anything until like Mike said, That's why we have one full cut from the Fed is priced in from the Fed futures in July. That's it.
- [17:57]
Scott Melker
Yeah, he said 100%. Is that what I heard, Mike? That was basically.
- [18:03]
James
By definition.
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Scott Melker
Yeah. Right. Okay. Cause that's wild because it doesn't seem like there's any reason to cut right now. Yeah.
- [18:09]
Mike
So there's a lot to mention.
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James
First of all, you can put it on, you can put it on the screen. Scott. Sorry, go ahead.
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Dave
Okay.
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Scott Melker
Yeah.
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Mike
First of all, the price of gasoline's up on the year. At the beginning, end of last year it was around $3 a gallon. Now it's $3.16. That's the average. It's going to go down. But the only way to really compare it for this time of year is all commodities are seasonal. It's a 12 month basis. Remember, this is a summer driving season. Last summer's driving season was closer to $3.50. Right now it's 3DOL. It's heading lower. The key thing is at some point, if I can share a chart, I need to point out the big picture macro here. And that is what you see here. Back here, this is what I'm showing you is bitcoin divided by beta. I just S&P 500 basically took 3 SM3 bit 3 S&P 500s for one Bitcoin. Back in 2020 when Mr. Sailor got all bullish and people like Lee and we all got really bullish. But the key same thing is now we're at the highest ever versus beta and you're, we're seeing the yelling. You're supposed to be selling when they're yelling. This is not a level to expect a 10x in Bitcoin versus beta or anything. It's just way too expensive. This is a level to say rational investors say okay, this is great. I'm hearing the people who is on the sell side pointing all the buyers. But we've seen this before. It's like everybody getting bullish. Crude oil above 100, this is not where you want to buy bitcoin relative to this is where you did want to buy them. This point out one thing is that's changed is this chart here I show you. This is the U.S. the average of government tenu notes in the top five countries in the world outside the U.S. that's China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. Right now the U.S. tenure note is at a 100 basis point premium. The rest of the world's been tilting towards this recession. This is well before Trump kicked in. That's the key thing I want to point out from commodities well before he was elected. Gold going up and crude oil going down is a clear global deflationary force. Remember there's just no demand pull for that, that, that economic sense of commodity at the moment. Now we are here with Bitcoin 2 versus beta. This is why I say be very careful with this commodity. I want to point out a key thing now we have a lot of smart people at Bloomberg and do models. This is a key thing I like to point out the bitcoin, the gold ratio, one of my favorites. It's at 28, it peaked at 40, it dropped to 25. Good support. It just rolled over I think at 30 last week. And our model, first of all, it's the same level as 2021. I know Dave doesn't like when I point that out, but it is the same as 2021. There was a good. We spiked in the biggest money pump in history, but our model shows it should be around 18. That means if gold can stay, keep going to 3,500, which is very good resistance. Bitcoin should go to 6,000. I'm sorry, 60,000 in a normal ratio. The key thing to think about, remember here is what happened here. What's our history. We are in the back end of the biggest money pump in history. Just the fact I can say that without pushback it is. It was all risk assets rallying the, the fastest horse in the race rallied the most. We're all on top of that now. We're seeing the hangover. And remember, let's not forget Bitcoin's classified as a commodity. I treat it as a commodity. Yes, I get the declining demand, increasing the demand and adoption. Remember when I'm bullish I point that out. But now it has things like Ethereum and millions of competitors. It just. What happens to commodities was what happened to crude oil. The main call I made on the way up when it was against consensus is you have to be consensus against consensus in my business or you're just a journalist. As a trader you have to do the opposite and try to see where the optionality is. So my bias is what crude oil did, what modern commodities, they go back to enduring means. To me, that's what bitcoin's doing now. That's what all cryptocurrencies are doing now. I just look at that Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index. It's down about 20% on the year and gold's up 20%. Now the stock market can go up and stay higher from here, maybe that'll narrow a little bit. But to me this is like 2008. It was really hard to be short in 2008. I hold, I held that held shorts that whole year I just kept rolling in the money puts versus Audi money. It was really hard. To me it's just getting started. And Dave's right, we do have rip roaring rallies in, in bear markets, man. We had one 9% update right in April and then we've had this rally for the last nine, nine sessions. It seems too easy that if bitcoin just rolls over from this level, if it closes below 85,000 to me that's triggered, everything goes down. If it it stays above 95,000, that means everything goes up. So I'm taking the big picture macro and I narrow it down and to me, what's happening this year, it's a bear market. I fully expect by the end of the year S&P 500 is more likely to be down 20% than up 20%. The Vix is 22. That means the first standard deviation move is up or down 20% and all things are tilting that way now We've had a bounce and gold to me is telling us that. So I stick with that macro and I Can't point this out. When people are saying buy an asset here, I say buy. Good luck with that.
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Dave
Leave this chart here. Okay. Because you've made. That was a very long diatribe. There were at least four very badly mangled assumptions in there. Assumption number one, that Bitcoin is a mature commodity is just absurd. Literally absurd. It's an option. It will either reach a terminal, a intermediate terminal state at the market cap of gold or it will fail. It is one of those two things because Bitcoin as a finance, as a network is way too slow to be the network usage for other stuff, inscriptions notwithstanding. It is however, as a financial asset, pristine money. So why do I say that? And why is that assumption really bothersome? You just said the magic words. I treat Bitcoin as commodity. Except for Bitcoin is 100% inelastic to price. Its supply is 100% inelastic. Every other commodity is exceedingly elastic. It's supply to price, meaning when the price goes up, supply goes up. That does not happen with Bitcoin. That is a completely different animal.
- [23:59]
James
It can't just. Just to. Just to put an accent on that, if the price of gold goes up, then it doesn't happen immediately. But gold miners ramp up production, period. I mean, same thing with silver, all their old gold.
- [24:12]
Dave
You see the signs and that's happening.
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Mike
So Dave, what are you missing?
- [24:14]
Dave
It's.
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Mike
What are you missing, Dave? Financialization and 15 million competitors, all the latest.
- [24:22]
Dave
You've made that point many times. I said there were four horribly bad assumptions. Bad assumption number one, Bitcoin is a mature asset. It is not mature. It is still an option. Bad assumption number two, Bitcoin can be treated like a commodity because it, well, it is completely inelastic to supply.
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Mike
What is the CFTC treated as a commodity? I'm sorry, I'm just pointing out facts. That's what TFC ranks it as. Is a commodity. It's classified as a commodity.
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Dave
When is the CFTC ever been an economist to determine the value of commodities?
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Mike
I mean, just pointing out classification it's as a commodity.
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Dave
It doesn't change the.
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Mike
It trades like a commodity.
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Dave
In my view, market prognosticators need to look at supply versus demand curves to understand what's going on. And if you don't understand that the supply is fixed, then you're not.
- [25:08]
Mike
No one say it wasn't fixed. Just okay. Gold has three competitors. Silver, platinum, palladium. Bitcoin has millions.
- [25:15]
Dave
Bitcoin is going to be gold's most serious competitor. And so Gold has to worry about the future. But Bitcoin does not have competitors. Bitcoin has other digital assets which happen to share a common background because they use cryptography. None of them are serious competitors to Bitcoin and you can see Bitcoin dominance for that in terms of its use as money. But that's, that's the third assumption that you made, that Bitcoin has competitors. We've talked about this ad nauseum. In the beginning there was Bitcoin because it is, it is pristine money. That's exactly what it is. Read the white paper, peer to peer, you know, value being transferred, etc. None of the other cryptos are taken seriously. It was a brief period of time when people, the Ethereum Maxis were yelling at Ethereum, it'd be better money when they switched to, you know, become gave up on that.
- [26:06]
Scott Melker
By the way, even, even the most like vocal advocates for Ethereum gave up on the super hard money or whatever that meme was.
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Dave
It's literally nobody, not what no serious investor treats any other crypto as having anything to do with store of value. They all trumpet their ability to do X, Y or Z. If it's, if it's xrp, it's, you know, being part of payments. If it's Ethereum, it's being the basis for tokenization. If it's Solana, it's also the basics for tokenization. It's the casino, you can go up and down line. If it's chainlink, it's being the in demand oracle that people are going to need. And you can go through every crypto, they are as similar to Bitcoin as Apple and Tesla are to U.S. treasuries. Yes, they're U.S. financial assets, but that's it. I mean, you know, it doesn't really matter. And oh by the way, this is the point that drives me absolutely insane. If we're right, and I'm very confident that I'm right, that in within hopefully our lifetimes, but certainly within the next couple of decades that all US equities will trade on the blockchain, then would you say Nvidia is a competitor to Bitcoin? And the answer to that is a resounding no. Just because it trades on the blockchain doesn't mean that it's a competitor. And so that competitor argument, and by the way, if you look at the comments into this show, that is the single argument you make more often than anything else that gets the biggest pushback. And people just generally the pushback is I can't believe he doesn't understand this. So that's three assumptions. On the fourth assumption. Need to go back to your chart. Pull it up. Pull up the. Either of those two. So look at where we were in 21, in 19. In 2021, the Bitcoin network itself was one fifth of its current size. At the same time, the narrative among the mainstream financial press was that bitcoin was a drain on the world's resources, that it was a waste of energy, that it was polluting the environment today.
- [27:59]
James
And it's going to zero. And it was going zero and is going to zero.
- [28:02]
Dave
So all that was happening in 21. Look where we are versus that. Now. Understand in terms of tailwinds, which you're ignoring. Tailwind number one is the fact that the network is five times bigger, which would indicate a bubble would be five times higher, and you can see where that would be. Second, you have it as declared a strategic asset. Yes, it's declared a strategic asset for half of the country, but it's still a street considered a strategic asset. Number three, you have very clear scientific consensus that bitcoin stabilizes grids, that bitcoin is not a no utility thing. It has a massive utility. It allows people to monetize stranded energy and it allows people to develop energy that would otherwise be uneconomical. And that is a very big deal. It's a big deal throughout the third World, Africa, et cetera. It's a big deal. We just had Spain and Portugal go dark because of the reliance on solar energy. They're literal. They only have two choices if they want that not to happen again. One is to increase bitcoin mining like Texas did. And two is to go to more nuclear or other powers. We'll see which one they choose, but it's not going to be 3. Do nothing and let's let the country go dark again. And so we have that as a. Those are major tailwinds that are different from where we were in 2021. Did we get ahead of ourselves in 2020? Of course we did. Is there any euphoria now on this chart? Any euphoria whatsoever? No, of course not. In fact, Charters will look at this to go, oh, my God. This may be one of the greatest inverse head and shoulders in history. And frankly, I think at some point that's what you're going to see.
- [29:31]
Mike
So, Dave, you know what you just did?
- [29:32]
Dave
Problematic.
- [29:33]
Mike
You just tempted the market gods by getting angry with someone who disagreed with you. Good luck.
- [29:37]
Scott Melker
No, no, no.
- [29:38]
Dave
I'm Angry about the assumptions?
- [29:40]
Mike
Not assumptions. The fact of the chart is this is not where you want to overweight Bitcoin. Good luck. This is where you were. I made the call then, I'm making the call now. I'm willing to eat it if it can continue to stay above 95,000 for maybe another week or two. I think the risk is it drops down with the stock market. By the way, the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq is 0.54 and 100 day basis in 2019, the year before. The biggest money pump in history, which I'm trying to get you to understand. Let me finish. Let me just point out the correlation was negative back then. So what drives Bitcoin? The stock market. Sorry, it's just a fact.
- [30:15]
James
I forgot.
- [30:18]
Dave
Wait, no, no, let me make one more point. Biggest money pump in history is not subsiding. It was pumped in. That money is there and if anything, based on fiscal dominance, it's going to continue to increase. Maybe not at the same rate, but that money going anywhere.
- [30:35]
James
David, that's a great lead into what I want to talk about. Can you pull up my charts there, Scott? I want to take a different angle here, Mike. And the different angle here is about global, global liquidity. You guys have heard me talk. I'm friends with Michael Howell, Cross Border Capital. He has an amazing newsletter if you all want to, you know, I mean I, I get nothing from it. But this is, if I, if I tell you about it. But this is a great newsletter. Anyway, the point is that if you look at global liquidity, it's rising. Why is it rising? It's rising because of weakness in dollar and central bank expansion and because of the easing of volatility in the bond market. Those are the big drivers of global liquidity rising right now. That's number one. Number two, if you look at where the msci, the global stock market was, it got way ahead of itself off of global liquidity. You can see the orange line is global liquidity. And this is the stock market. And now it's mean reverted back to a more sustainable level. Okay, so it's number two. Number three, let's take a look at gold. Let's take a look at gold, which has followed liquidity quite a bit quite closely for a very long time. But let's look at that, look at where gold is versus global liquidity. Look at where that thing has absolutely skyrocketed. It's because people have turned to it as a flight of safety asset and it quite honestly has probably gotten Ahead of itself here. I would argue be careful with gold at this level right now.
- [32:15]
Scott Melker
I think Mike agrees with that.
- [32:17]
James
Okay, so, right, so, but if you look at Bitcoin, this is a three month lag because bitcoin takes a few months to catch up. Look at where it is. I said back here, we can go back and listen to the, the podcast. I said back here, is bitcoin going to have to mean revert back to liquidity or liquidity, is liquidity going to catch up and look at where it is? So that's not surprising to me because of what Dave said. And this is exactly what it comes back to, which is, look, yeah, we did have the biggest money pump in history, but guess what, number one, that money pump is continuing and the global liquidity continues to expand. It's going to continue to expand ex infinitum. Why? Because we are in a fiscal dominant situation worldwide. Because now the stock market is not driven by asset reallocation. It's driven by the expansion of the debt. You have to expand the debt to keep this whole thing going. And they have to expand the debt to keep the sovereigns going, which means that they have to monetize it somehow, some way, whether it's an acronym or it's straight out qe, they're going to have to continue this. And so that's what's happening. And the question is, does the Fed fully pivot and go to QE sometime in the middle of this year because of some sort of credit event or because of a steep drawdown in the stock market because of the things that you're talking about, Mike. And people do get scared and they do dump all assets and they correlate to one. Or do they just quietly continue on this path and continue to expand the money supply? We don't know when that's going to end. You know, Michael likes to say that it's a five or six year cycle, it's going to end later this year. Well, that means that Bitcoin is going to probably hit its, its peak level for this cycle in, somewhere in the first quarter of, of 2026 or, or the middle of 2026. That's, that's what is likely according to the, the, the, the view of liquidity. But that's, that's a different view.
- [34:19]
Dave
And the only other always have, which is a really simple one, is if you look at Bitcoin as a mature asset. When we talk about the fact that at some point, if it's going to succeed now, it's an If. Okay, so understand it's if. If bitcoin succeeds, it has a zero extra zero on the end of it with everything else constant. Now, I'm going to repeat that because it matters. So the success of Bitcoin is assuming $2025 as of this date, it should be 10x + to be Paris passu with the monetary value of gold. Now, if you believe that that will happen, obviously it's an if. Then things will have to happen in terms of correlations and treating that asset that are different than everything else that we've just said. That's hold everything else constant. Will bitcoin adoption drive price? That's why I always go back to the network size as the most obvious of that. It's an if. Obviously, Mike, you're in the no camp on the if. I got that. Obviously I'm in the yes camp with the if. I get that too. The one thing that I don't believe is possible is over the next decade for bitcoin to stay as its current level of maturity, that is its ratio to gold, it will either collapse because it will fail or it will rally that 10/X to get to there. Now, what gold does and what monetary aggregates do and all the other stuff that's happening, this is a macro show. But you can't treat and value an asset that is essentially an option the same as the hard asset. And so when I say bitcoin can't go to 10,000, I'm not saying it can't. I'm saying that for it to happen, it is a failure. Bitcoin couldn't get below 16,000 when there was forced selling from almost the entire crypto community and no institutional buyers. Just think about that. When FTX puked, it was massive amounts of forced selling, waves of it. And it couldn't get below 16,000. Think about what that means.
- [36:19]
Mike
So here's one thing that you got myth going against you, Dave. Power of the statements working against you this year. Good luck. I'm just pointing out the power statement. Yeah, it was early last year. I was early in a lot of things. The power of the statement means if you're overweight risk off assets like gold and treasury bonds, and you're underweight risk on assets like crypto indices, some of them which are 70% tracking Bitcoin. The Bloomberg Galaxy Index is only 30%. You're doing better. I expect that to continue the whiting. You keep going to the hypothetical big picture stuff. I'm great. But 2018, I never thought bitcoin was fail. I just thought It'd drop a zero. It almost did. It got 70% of that. I'm never going to say. I didn't say it's going to fail. I just think it's going to drop a zero from 100,000. It's not a big thing. And a highly volatile commodity that trades typically much more, much more volatile than most other risk assets. The point is, it's going that way. I mean, it's bounced once. It's failing now. If it stays above 95, 000. I gave you my stop. Okay. Now I'll be wrong. I think it goes back down to 85, 000. That's where the stop for everything is.
- [37:16]
Dave
Everything was. Was it set? Is set. Was a 78,000. Now it's an 85.
- [37:20]
Scott Melker
Yeah.
- [37:21]
Mike
No, I just. I know. Back up. We all agreed when the VIX went to six, you're supposed to buy risk assets. I always go to the high fastest horse in the race. Typically, that's bitcoin. We agreed on that. No disagreement. It did. Now it's rallied to unshine the year and now it up for a little while. My suggestion is shorted. I don't trade anymore, but I think that's what people are thinking. Proof strength. It's just my old finish let make it proof strength. Right now, to me, it's not proving strength. It's proving it just went up with the stock market. That's all it's been doing. It's the best leading indicator on the planet in my bias, as I pointed out, as I fully expect a down year for the stock market, maybe 20%, which is way overdue, which probably means 50% for Bitcoin, and I'd still stick with that until it maybe can at least show the opposite. For now, the fastest horse in the race has bounced unchanged in the air and starting to tilt back downward.
- [38:08]
Scott Melker
I would just say, to be fair, we talked about it a lot here. I don't think that it followed the stock market up. I think it actually showed it led the way up. Tremendous resilience. And then it led the way up.
- [38:19]
Mike
We pointed it out for months. Yeah, absolutely.
- [38:21]
Scott Melker
It did show, as you said, that divergence, strength.
- [38:23]
Mike
Yeah. It's a higher volatility. It should lead the way.
- [38:26]
Scott Melker
Okay, so listen, Dave, I'm not. It's the same conversation, so I don't want to beat it to death. I do want to talk about this, which is. This is on the back of Michael Saylor, which we'll talk about as well, chart of the week TEDx Money Multiplier for bitcoin could take Wall street by storm. This is basically nydig. This isn't just another standard chartered no prediction but basically saying we'll get a 42,000 ish from here based on the buying of Semler Scientific and Metapolis Planet and Microstrategy. And of course out on the back of strategy doubles bitcoin buying capital plan to 84 billion. So I think the target of 140,000 is less interesting. I think it's worth diving into A, how many companies are going to continue to follow this and how much you know how effective that'll be once you've kind of seen strategy do it. And B, I mean we have to talk about.
- [39:16]
Mike
Can I just make one comment about that?
- [39:18]
Scott Melker
Too close to the sun here and.
- [39:20]
Mike
Let me, let me just make one comment about that and everybody who's way overweight long this highly volatile risk ass can tell me how dumb I am. I love it because believe me that emboldens me is when you know what a lamb is. Look at me, Michael Saylor is saying to the world hey look at me, I made money doing this. You can do. How's history going to view that? Good luck. It's just this is not going to typically you got to stop those people out and then you go up. Unless it's different this time. I'm just saying how it usually works. If it's that easy like Dave says, it's so easy to get in there 10x from here. What you said on I heard, I listened to macro crypto banter. It's like this is just not. We expect to get the 10X. We got that, we got the 10X now when everybody's buying it, be careful. Everybody's bullish like that. Be careful.
- [40:03]
Dave
What happened? I don't know what happened in 2004 and 5. What was the market? The total aggregate market value of quote Internet related companies. There was a huge rally off the bottom from 2001's depth to 2004 and 5. Right.
- [40:20]
Mike
So you just point out exactly where I think we're going in cryptos. We're going to get to that.
- [40:24]
Dave
I understand that if you look now today it is, what is it? 50x. I mean it's a very big multiplier. I mean Nvidia didn't even exist back then. Right. You know there was no such thing as trillion dollar companies. We were, you know, it just it, I mean the, the entirety of the wealth created by what was a meta trend was massive. I'll never forget Cisco when we first got, when we first saw what was happening with routers, it was just Cabletron systems. I mean, you see there are wealth creation events that are generational and when you see a wealth, a generational wealth creation event, you can't fade it the same as you create as you fade business, business as usual. It's not about this time, it's different. It's about there is a generational opportunity. And that's the point. That's essentially what Saylor's saying. I mean if you look at what he said and listen to his, and I strongly advise listening to his earnings call because it was really fascinating. What he said was that his strategy works perfectly well. If you believe bitcoin will track the market and do long term market returns of 7%, they will do well. If you believe, if you're a maximalist and you believe that bitcoin will have an ARR of 30, which is it will over the next decade. Because he's talking about 10 years out. He said if in fact it gets to that, that is effectively what would happen for bitcoin to catch up with gold's monetization. Then you have the most amazing performance in history, effectively. And so the real question is if you can have, if you can get an index tracking asset that will do fine as good as being invested in the S and P. If bitcoin returns roughly the same as the S and P and get the extra leverage for that bet, which is the bet that I made, that I said the thing which you say no and I say yes. That's the investment play that's not flying too close to the sun. Now do I get aggravated or do I worry? Do I feel like my, my spidey senses go when someone massively doubles up at what might be a long term. A local talk. Yeah, yeah, of course I do. Because for the same reasons Mike is saying it, Mike's not wrong. Nobody wants to see pyramiding, you know, at the top because pyramiding at the top, we all know in our heads is bad because you end up getting stopped out on the way down. But that's not his strategy. His strategy may look that way, but that is not what he's doing. He's not over leveraging to the point where a 50 drawdown would wipe him out. In fact, a 50 drawdown would leave him more or less at break even. So it is different, but it is worth even.
- [43:04]
Scott Melker
Firm is like 70ish.
- [43:05]
Mike
But.
- [43:05]
Dave
Yeah, yeah, but the point is, yes, is that you're looking at a different perspective. His perspective is not as. As crazy as it sounds if all you're doing is looking at it from the outside. Now, that said, do I have concerns about, you know, about asset concentration? Yeah, of course I do. Everybody does.
- [43:28]
Scott Melker
I want to know James because. Yeah, because James, you're close. You're close to Sailor. Obviously, you know, we've. Yeah, look, we sit at the table with him at the weddings and stuff. So, you know, it's hard to. It's hard to have a negative opinion, obviously. Obviously.
- [43:41]
James
Yeah. I mean, well, yeah, I'm positively predisposed, definitely. But, you know, it's a simple strategy, Mike. It's not without risk. He's taking a ton of risk in that. He's betting his entire company, his entire career on this asset, you know, and that's. That's okay. That's what he's doing. So at this point, what, what you heard in that, in that meeting, the shareholder meeting, is that he's got to move away from, tap the atmosphere in order to issue stock and buy Bitcoin here because it's not at a level that makes sense financially. It makes much more sense to lever the balance sheet, continue to do more debt and buy Bitcoin that way. I mean, you know, if you look at, if you look at how it's trading right now, it's trading just above a 2x on the. The fully diluted shareholder base over the Bitcoin on the balance sheet. The value of the bitcoin on the balance sheet, if that gets up over two and a half, 262728, he's going to start tapping the ATM again. It makes sense financially, as it comes down to two or under two, he's going to do. He's going to do debt. Now, here's where investors get hurt. Now, this is a big position in my portfolio in the hedge fund for a very good reason. I believe that he's positioning himself and it's not easy, but he's positioning himself and MicroStrategy to become the largest bitcoin finance company in the world and to be able to create products and offer products that other banks will not be able to do, other financial companies will not be able to do. He's transitioning this microstrategy into strategy. And strategy is going to be a financial company and it's going to be a bitcoin financial company. It's going to be the biggest one in the world. Now, why would a 2.0 valuation on the underlying value of Bitcoin make sense, a fully diluted valuation? Well, if you look at, and correct me if I'm wrong, Mike, but I believe that JP Morgan's been trading at a 2.1-ish valuation of book value for a very long time, historically. And that's a pretty good target. And Dave Foley and I talk about that all the time. He's the one who came up with that metric as a benchmark for us. But looking at that long term, with Microstrategy becoming the largest bitcoin finance company in the world, that makes sense. Where do investors get hurt? Well, investors get hurt if Bitcoin continues to stay here and that metric contracts and people stop. They stop applying the future value of Bitcoin to balance sheet on that metric, meaning that it contracts to a 1.5 or 1.0. So Bitcoin could be staying the same value and MicroStrategy could get cut in half, or Bitcoin could go up 100% and MicroStrategy contracts to 1.0 and you make zero money, whereas you would have made 100% in Bitcoin. So that's where people can get hurt on this and get caught off size. I don't think the valuation's ahead of itself because of the, the, the future value of the, of a financial company. But that's my opinion. And that's, that's, that's how we are. That's our, our lens on it, Mike.
- [47:04]
Scott Melker
Gotta hear your opinion on that. You're muted.
- [47:10]
James
Mike.
- [47:11]
Scott Melker
You're muted, buddy. We can't hear you.
- [47:13]
Mike
Yeah, maybe it wasn't worth listening to. I really remember I'm the only one probably on this entire goal is not overweight. Got a vested interest in bitcoin going up or cryptos going up. That's part, that's part of my values. I'm neutral. I'm not allowed to trade these things. I was before in minimal de minimis amounts. And I get what you're saying. It makes a lot of sense.
- [47:33]
James
But remember, you should buy MicroStrategy.
- [47:36]
Mike
Well, no, I actually did. I did because my, my firm allowed me to, but it got way. So it just went up so much. And for. To me like, yeah, okay, now it's just when Michael Sarah first came out.
- [47:49]
James
In 2020, I urge you to take another, another approach at it and look at it from a different angle, Mike.
- [47:55]
Mike
And think I look at it from an angle of relative value. It's. You want me to agree with you and I can't. That's the wrong thing.
- [48:02]
Dave
To do.
- [48:02]
Mike
No, I want you all want me to.
- [48:05]
James
No, I don't. I don't want you to agree with me. I want you to go look at it from a different angle and look at it as a. As a. As a future financial company that does nothing to do with just bitcoin but just look at as a future financial.
- [48:16]
Mike
You're saying things I said eight years ago. I completely agree. Bitcoin was going up now I think it's just a way over hyped expensive asset that people call digital gold. Yeah I got some of that and then I see all these millions of competitors who you know like Dogecoin. I showed you the chart that the chart of bitcoin gold is the same as Dogecoin. I'm just one example. I'm just pointing out the things from a rational 30,000 views going to look at and say this stuff is just pricey. And I'm just looking at what matters is the power of the statement. Bitcoin is down on the year now Gold's up a lot. I expect that to continue because the stock market's going down. It's not and to me the macro is overwhelming all the other stuff in between. At some point I'm fully expect to get bullish bitcoin again and what I do disagree with Dave is when he says it's failed. I disagree with that completely. This technology is awesome. Todd's I'm Scott's podcast this weekend about tokenization something I pointed out almost almost a decade ago and the most significant bulmart in Cryptos is $250 million about tracking. People call them stablecoins, some call them crypto dollars. That's up 100x since 2018. That's continuing to go but here's a big picture we want to bring in is we have ad tokenization when you can on on coin market cap or through a token be able to get long treasuries and what do people just don't get long trades. They overweight them long. They add a lot of leverage. That's what you do because treasuries it's just way treasury works and then you try to set up shorts. What do you think is going to happen to these million or so coins that are just worth nothing? They're going to shorten their short bait and and particularly if the stock market goes down this is a wonderful opportunity that everything's getting arbed in. That's why I fully expected since futures were launched in 2017 Bitcoin volatility would Go down and get armed. But don't underestimate financialization and an asset that you. I'm just letting you know and what you said with the comments when you, when you disagree with them, how angry they get. I've seen this before. It just shows you how long and overweight exposure they have to it going down. There's going to be a lot of pain. I'm really worried about. I need to. It's my duty to warn people. That's just based on the facts and hopefully I'll be wrong. Maybe bitcoin can stay above 95,000, make couple more weeks. I'm fully expect it's going to just follow the stock market and a lot of people are going to lose money. You and I, we've all seen a lot of these kind of moves before and everybody's way overweight in Eric Acid and they all buy the narrative. But I just never seen an asset like this that everybody says how great it is. That has 15 million. Okay. I can't say competitors. I'm not allowed to say dependence. They're all related. That's. Can we say that relation. I mean what, what's the best way to describe.
- [50:49]
Dave
I mean they use the same dependence.
- [50:51]
Scott Melker
Dependence is not a word, is not a terrible term.
- [50:53]
Dave
Clarify something very important. I have been very consistent on this show saying that bitcoin is trading in a range. I called for a tradable bottom at 78. I said that the 94 level, I don't know where 95 is coming from, is sort of around the top of the range. We're trading a little below 94 now. I think we're still in a range bound market. I think we'll be in a range bound market until liquidity reasserts itself. I would be completely unconcerned with a drop down into the 80s. I think it's in fact potentially likely. I'd say it's at least 50%. I mean I don't have a very strong conviction at these price levels. I just don't. So it's not. My anger with you isn't to have anything to do with price prediction. I'd say that a 20% correction from here I would find completely unsurprising. I don't really care. What I do care about is ignoring the importance of adoption, ignoring the importance of long, long term. Well, it is because there's a thing.
- [51:44]
Mike
Called path dependence, a thing called sign. When they're yelling, there's so much yelling. Dave, you know that's not the time to be Joining that party.
- [51:50]
Dave
But the point is it's exactly the opposite. Look at the comments even from today's show. There's more people who are skeptical about bitcoin rallying than there are about it going up. At best, you know, the, the greed and fear index is neutral. It's been either fear, extreme fear or neutral for the last basically since January. And here we are in May. So no, you're right. If everybody was euphoric, if the funding rates on bitcoin were high, in fact they're low or negative, I would be agreeing with you. The point is not selling. When they're yelling, they're not yelling. There's no exuberance in this market. It best. This is a hated rally from. From 80 to 95. Right. Scott, you talk about. In a token, are people euphoric about where bitcoin is right now? No. So yes, I agree with you, Mike. If in fact this was that I'm yelling about, the thing that I'm angry about has nothing to do with the price prediction. Well, it does in the extreme, but no, what I am aggravated about is clinging to assumptions such as elasticity of supply, doesn't matter. Such as bitcoin.
- [52:57]
Mike
I didn't say that. I never said that.
- [53:00]
Dave
Okay, well you did.
- [53:02]
Mike
Don't underestimate financialization. People are overweight, leveraged long. They hit stops. That's from that environment. You hit stops on the way down. Okay, that never said that. But please don't miss the words there.
- [53:15]
Dave
But understand. Okay, so let's talk about financialization in 2021. That chart you put up, it got ahead of itself. You know what caused it? Financialization. You know how we know this? Because the people, people were paying 50 to 100% for weeks. As that, that rally happened for weeks. 50 to 100% rates to be long. They were willing to buy bitcoin and pay 100% interest on that loan to be long. That is financialization, that is yelling and that is a screaming sell signal. In my opinion, we are the literal polar opposite of that. That's my point.
- [53:57]
Mike
Well, right, so far your statement shows otherwise. I mean the statements. Gold. Here's talk about enduring bull market gold. It's expensive. But the thing to remember about what James talked about, liquidity. The number one force for liquidity on the entire planet is the US stock market. It's two times GDP. It's only happened twice in history. 1929 wasn't around then. 1989, Japan. I was, I started in the business trading Japanese. Nice session from Chicago. It's just not, that's the, your liquidity. If that can keep going up and stay there, everything's fine. But in that environment you can support $3 trillion of so called cryptocurrencies. Many of them have no value. When that goes away, which I think is happening this way, you hit all the low hanging fruit that you can get money shorting all that stuff that's worth what Doge is still worth, a couple $25 billion. That's where we're going. And for me to be proven wrong, first of all, maybe we can see a negative correlation. Bitcoin to NASDAQ right now it's 0.54. It's almost the highest in its history. And maybe you can see the stock market going up right now. I think it's rolling over. That's my point. It's all happening that way which show it's not going to do that. So far it's happening. And when the stock market does drop minimum 12 trillion from last year, which is what it created last year, the most in the history, 40% of GDP, it almost always takes it back. That's going to take away liquidity. And then we see the Fed turn on the pump and try to, it's going to be the falling knife. To me it's like 1930.
- [55:18]
James
But I think it's a push and pull between the volatility of the stock market, the drawdown of the stock market and other assets because of a correlation to one event or just because like you said, it needs to mean revert. But there's a flip side to that and we're in an adoption phase of bitcoin. And so although it's quite volatile, it's going to remain quite volatile, volatile in my mind it's going to continue to take those metrics higher, the ones that you keep pointing to. They're going to continue to gravitate higher as Bitcoin takes market share from the other assets. That's what happens with these things. And it's going to continue to climb that ladder of that. We have a list of the largest assets in the world, Scott, that lists all the Google and Amazon, all that.
- [56:07]
Scott Melker
It went up to five and back down to eight.
- [56:09]
James
Yeah, it crested silver. And then, you know, and it's, it's, it's, it's and, and Google and it's come back down. But it's going to continue to take market share from all of those other assets. And as it does that, your metrics are not destroyed, they just have to be adjusted and that's what's going to happen. And that, that is my belief, that's my firm belief in the long term of bitcoin.
- [56:29]
Dave
Right. And, and just, just for the record, you know, there is no question in my mind that the meme economy inside of crypto is going to contract over time in nominal terms and in real terms. You know, I am not going to believe in a market where fart coin is worth a billion dollars. I'm sorry, it's just, it's just to me that there are issues and yes, you know, forget million. You know, I'll go so far as to say there probably aren't 200, 300 cryptocurrencies or crypto assets, assets that we see today that will have enduring value. Now that said, you're going to see something very interesting happen over the next decade. You're going to see hybrid assets that are part ownership of networks like the crypto company cryptos are now and part equity and or part bonds because the three different types of capital formation, one, that's brand new and two, that we understand, equity, debt and network ownership, those things will all coexist and will hybridize. And so you will eventually not have that. But do I disagree with you, Mike, when you say that, you know, most of the coins on coin market cap are going to effectively get flushed out? No, it's exactly the Same as in 2001. When you look back, you saw that the Internet companies that existed, most of them went Kapoor now most of them were in the OTC space. They were like 14,000 of them back then. That went boom. But you know, okay, so with the ability of pump fund. Yeah.
- [58:02]
Scott Melker
Yeah. Centralized exchange is not so different from OTCS back then. It's a future, it's a evolution of the Right.
- [58:09]
Dave
But where we disagree is I think that the net aggregate wealth 3 trillion is. Is nothing compared to what will exist in the entire economy of network ownership as networks and AI agents and things continue to grow. So I am much more bullish on the concept of the new emerging asset class than you are. That's cool. But I totally agree with you that most of the people there are total pretenders and, or irrelevant in the future. And so you're right. You know, it's. There's stuff. I mean, dogecoin is an interesting case because it's kind of the granddaddy of all of it. It's cross.
- [58:48]
Scott Melker
It'S an outlier.
- [58:48]
Mike
Yeah, yeah, it's only 7 billion.
- [58:53]
James
Pull up the Scott, pull up.
- [58:57]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I've got it. One second.
- [58:59]
James
There it is.
- [59:01]
Scott Melker
Oh, we gotta get ahead of Silver again. Nice.
- [59:03]
James
Yeah, it bounces around there. But that's going to be number two behind gold in the not too distant future, in my opinion. And that's because of adoption.
- [59:13]
Dave
But you won't find any other crypto on that, on that list in all likelihood. Never. Not for a while.
- [59:19]
Scott Melker
Yeah, for, for, for a very long time. Yeah. I just, I go back to saying to Mike, like, I sympathize with the argument, but anyone who's really deep in this 99% of crypto has gone to zero. It's not, it's not like we're waiting for that to happen. Like there's so many things that have just died on the vine that even showed of actual technical promise. It's, it already looks like the post Internet bubble where a few may rise like Phoenix from the ashes, but it's, it's been pretty brutal.
- [59:47]
Dave
He's not wrong. He's not wrong. That's what I'm saying. There are billions of dollars of, of zombie things out there. Yes, there's no doubt. He's not wrong about that.
- [59:56]
Scott Melker
Yeah. 100. Well, guys, we did it. We got to 1,003. I can barely stand up at this point. I'm gonna go host, host Crypto Town hall from a laying down horizontal position. Not feeling great, but you guys kept me entertained and, and, and standing up this entire time, so congratulations. Great perspective. Always love the continued debate. It's going to be interesting. I mean, I, I really do think that right now, at these prices where the markets have effectively retraced, that entire dump is going to be where we're really need to start paying attention, you know, because if it breaks up, you end up higher. That would be, that would be a pretty big signal. But if we see a dump here, it could get very, very ugly. I agree with Mike there. All right, guys, that's all we got. Give James, Mike and Dave a follow, of course. And we will definitely see you next Monday for another macromoney. Thanks guys.
- [60:48]
Mike
Great. Cheers. Let's do.