"Bitcoin Is Following A Pattern Nobody Wants To Admit" | Anthony Scaramucci

Summary

---

Podcast Summary: "Bitcoin Is Following A Pattern Nobody Wants To Admit"

Podcast: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Anthony Scaramucci
Date: March 22, 2026

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, Scott Melker interviews Anthony “Mooch” Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and prominent Bitcoin advocate. Together, they dig into the recent Bitcoin pullback, dissect the four-year crypto cycle, discuss the influence of institutional buyers, regulatory battles, stablecoins, and the future of retail participation. Scaramucci shares his candid views on why Bitcoin’s volatility is “garden variety,” why most crypto projects are doomed, and what institutional adoption and legislative clarity will mean for the next phase of digital assets. The tone is fast-paced, honest, and laced with Scaramucci’s characteristic humor.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Nature of the Current Bitcoin Cycle

• Scaramucci’s Thesis: The current 35–40% drop in Bitcoin is not extraordinary—just a normal cyclical correction, heavily shaped by self-fulfilling prophecies among long-term holders and OG “whales”.
  • Quote: "A 35, 40% drop in Bitcoin, it sucks. I'm not saying it doesn't, but it's a garden variety bear market." (Anthony Scaramucci, 00:14)
• Whale Behavior: Veteran holders saw $100k as a "magic dot" and started selling, reinforcing the 4-year cycle narrative.
  • Quote: "When you believe in something, you create a self fulfilling prophecy...they started selling into the $100,000 number." (AS, 00:25, repeated and expanded at 02:05)
• ETFs Muted the Crash: Institutional buyers like BlackRock “softened” what could've been a much sharper downturn, stabilizing the market with increased demand.
  • Scaramucci: "I actually think the cycle has been more muted by institutional buying—BlackRock, Fidelity, the ETFs… Bitcoin could have gone down more if you just look at traditional cycles." (AS, 02:58)

2. Signs of a Market Bottom & Investor Sentiment

• Fear/Greed Index Signal: The Fear and Greed index hitting record lows is, in Scaramucci’s mind, a screaming opportunity—not a reason to panic.
  • Quote: "The fear index is at 5 and be overly bearish. You can't as a person because...that's when you're making your money." (AS, 04:45)
• Market Chop as Capitulation: They discuss how repeated cycles see long periods of sideways movement that shake out weak hands before moves higher.
  • Melker: “You tend to see this long, very annoying time of chop and consolidation...you get time based capitulation, people just quit. Like so many people have already quit.” (SM, 06:03)
• Historical Parallels: Scaramucci likens current apathy to previous bottoms, like after FTX or post-2008 in tradfi.
  • Scaramucci: "It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again." (AS, 06:33)

3. Price Predictions and Long-term Conviction

• Moonshot Targets:
  • Scaramucci maintains a $2–3 million BTC price target by decade’s end, referencing MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor’s even bolder call.
    • Quote: “Saylor's the most aggressive...$13 million price target. I think SkyBridge, we have a, you know, $20, $32 million price target. We think it gets there by the end of that. That's six years from today.” (AS, 04:21)
• Stay the Course: Even those feeling “terrible” at $65k would have been ecstatic a few years ago. The lesson: hold and accumulate.
  • Quote: “Bitcoin got us to 126 [thousand]. So now we feel terrible at 65,000. And the truth is you own bitcoin. So I own one bitcoin before the rally...Stay the course.” (AS, 08:41)

4. The Coming Shakeout: Most Coins Are Going to Zero

• Survival of the Fittest: The vast majority of tokens will not survive the next shakeout.
  • Quote:
    • Melker: "24,900 [of 25,000 coins on CoinGecko]” will go to zero.
    • Scaramucci: “That's the facts...There's so much coalfish behavior in this industry...a lot of even the good use case coins are hurt badly. So I do think there's going to be a shakeout." (13:35)
• Analogy: Compares it to the dot-com and early cloud eras—eventually, only a handful of “operating layers” (tokens/platforms) will dominate global finance and markets.
  • Quote: "Twenty years ago, someone came to me, take all your confidential information...put it on my server...now you have 12 different cloud vendors. That's the layer one industry to me." (AS, 14:12)

5. Regulation, the Clarity Act & Institutional Adoption

• Regulation is Inevitable—But Compromised:
  • Mooch predicts the Clarity Act will pass, but in a watered-down form, which is still a net positive long-term.
    • Quote: "It's important because the enemy of progress in Washington is perfection...get something done. Because once you get something done, you can add to it..." (AS, 10:14)
• Banks Need Regulation Too:
  • Chris Giancarlo’s insight: banks are unable to innovate in crypto until there are rules—so ironically, they need legislative clarity more than crypto startups do.
    • Quote: "The banks need the Clarity act more than the crypto companies...they actually can't innovate and adopt the technology until there's laws in place." (SM quoting Giancarlo, 16:06; "Well said." - AS, 16:27)
• Politics and the Power of Lobbying:
  • With "Fair Shake" and crypto industry funding, being anti-crypto is politically risky—hence bipartisan support is growing.
    • Quote: "There's pro crypto and they're single issue crypto voters, but there's no anti crypto voter." (AS, 19:34)

6. Stablecoins, Tokenization, and the Next Wave

• Stablecoins Need Banks:
  • Adoption will be slow until major banks can custody and issue stablecoins.
    • Quote: "But until the banks can have their own stablecoin or be able to have Circle or Tether in their custody, they're not going to scale to the extent that we would all want them to scale." (AS, 18:33)
• Asset Tokenization as Killer Use Case:
  • DTCC projects most assets will be tokenized by 2026, but only if clarity is achieved.
    • Quote: "If you're telling me that...they don't want to give Trump a win and they've been throwing the towel on Clarity, you can't get the 60 votes in the Senate...then I don't think it's going to happen." (AS, 26:39)

7. Portfolio Strategy & Cautionary Tales

• Portfolio Approach:
  • Scaramucci is bullish on Bitcoin, Solana, Avalanche, and stablecoin infrastructure like Stellar, but urges diversification among “layer ones”.
    • Quote: "We would prefer on our layer ones to take a portfolio approach." (AS, 22:54)
• Beware Indexing:
  • Indexing crypto can be risky (e.g., Luna’s collapse); the unknown unknowns can hurt even seasoned investors.
    • Quote: “If I think with great certainty something’s going to do this, that is actually going to do that, that's when I get caught.” (AS, 24:21)

8. Retail’s Return: What Will Bring Back the Masses?

• What Triggers a Return?
  • Three factors: Passing of the Clarity Act, new Wall Street-backed use cases (tokenization), and banks offering custody/ETFs will reignite retail interest.
    • Quote: "Clarity act passes...the banks are going to be able to custody things like Bitcoin...going to see the movement and then you'll catch the positive forces, the virtuous circle..." (AS, 25:23)

9. The Future of Treasury and DeFi Companies

• Consolidation Coming:
  • After the boom and bust, Mooch sees likely M&A and activism among decentralized asset platforms, especially if priced below NAV.
    • Quote: “I think there’ll be some consolidation on the Ethereum, dax, even some of the bitcoin ones. And…there’ll be some activism. Some of these things are trading below their navs…” (AS, 29:20)

---

Notable Moments & Quotes (by Timestamp)

• 00:14: “A 35, 40% drop in Bitcoin. It sucks. I'm not saying it doesn't, but it's a garden variety bear market.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 02:05: “I've lived most of my life in denial. I think I'm 6'4... but you have to be realistic about bitcoin.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 04:45: “[When] the greed fear index…is at 5... that's when you're making your money.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 04:21: “Saylor's the most aggressive...$13 million price target. I think SkyBridge, we have a $20, $32 million price target.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 08:41: “Bitcoin got us to 126 [thousand]. So now we feel terrible at 65,000. And the truth is...stay the course.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 13:35: "24,900 [of 25,000 coins] are going to zero." — Scott Melker and Anthony Scaramucci
• 14:12: "[Cloud computing]...That's the layer one industry to me, there will be a real world asset token for real estate, there'll be a stock and bond token..." — Anthony Scaramucci
• 16:06: "The banks need the Clarity act more than the crypto companies...they can't innovate and adopt...until there's laws." — Chris Giancarlo (quoted by Melker; Scaramucci agrees)
• 19:34: "There's pro crypto and they're single issue crypto voters, but there's no anti crypto voter." — Anthony Scaramucci

---

Additional Insights

• Humility & Learning: Both Melker and Scaramucci stress the importance of humility and adaptability in markets—no one is immune to surprises or losses.
• Institutional Adoption is a Double-Edged Sword: While essential for mainstreaming, institutions may crowd out crypto’s original ethos, creating tension among purists and pragmatists.
• "Human Nature" in Markets: Whether it's whales cashing out, banks lobbying for delay, or retail selling lows, Scaramucci makes the case that cyclical, emotional behavior is a constant through every era.

---

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive, unvarnished look at the current crypto landscape: while the cycle may feel brutal to many, Scaramucci argues it’s business as usual. The arrival of institutions, coming regulation, and inevitable shakeout of weak projects set the stage for the next decade. Meanwhile, patience and rational optimism are the order of the day—a message especially timely as fear peaks and narratives shift.

Transcript

[Interviewer]

Everybody wants bitcoin to go up right now. But the legend Anthony Scaramucci says that's not how this cycle works. In this conversation, Moosch explains why the current bitcoin pullback is actually a garden variety cycle.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

A 35, 40% drop in Bitcoin. It sucks. I'm not saying it doesn't, but it's a garden variety bear market.

[Interviewer]

Why OG whales may have intentionally triggered the sell off above 100k.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

There were some traditional whales, some OGs that believe in the 4 year cycle. When you believe in something, you create a self fulfilling prophecy. So these guys looked around and said, okay, we're over 100. Sort of a magic dot number for me. I've held Bitcoin for 15 years. God bless the person, I was able to do that. And they started selling into the $100,000 number.

[Interviewer]

And why institutional buyers like BlackRock may have actually softened what could have been a much deeper crash. We also get into why the fear and greed index hitting all time lows could actually signal the bottom. Why Mooch believes Bitcoin could reach 2 to 3 million dollars per coin within the next decade.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

20, 32 million dollars price target. We think it gets there by the end of that. That's up six years from today. So if you get the opportunity to buy it here. Buy it.

[Interviewer]

And why almost every crypto project will eventually go to zero. Plus we dive into the real battle

[Scott Melker]

over the Clarity Act.

[Interviewer]

Why banks secretly need crypto regulation more

[Scott Melker]

than the crypto companies do.

[Interviewer]

And what finally brings retail investors back into this market. This conversation is packed with insights on bitcoin cycles, institutional adoption, tokenization, stablecoins and the shakeout coming to the crypto industry.

[Scott Melker]

Let's go, let's do. I were just talking before and you think we might be following the four year cycle more than some of us might want to admit.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

By the way, I love denial. I've lived most of my life in denial. I think I'm 6 foot 4, you know, in my own mind at least. Definitely not on my driver's license. But. But I think you have to be realistic about bitcoin. I think you have to be realistic about where we are. And a couple of things have happened under the surface. So another big crackdown in China. As you know, I'm just back from Hong Kong. The Chinese went around surfacing, VPNs, et cetera. Closed down a lot of bitcoin mining that was happening in China. It was probably, you know, 10, 12% of the mining going on in China. You saw the hash rate come down in bitcoin. Some of that was related to them, you know, pulling people out of the mining capacity in China. And then you had the cascade of selling in October. And the thing about that is nobody, Scott, you could talk to five experts, 10 experts, you can't get a congruence, get an answer right. So to me then I'm saying, and this is just my supposition, my surmise that we're in a four year cycle and that there were some traditional whales, some OGs that believe in the four year cycle. And guess what happens in life when you believe in something, you create a self fulfilling prophecy. So these guys looked around and said, okay, we're over 100. Sort of a magic dot number for me. I've held Bitcoin for 15 years. God bless the person that was able to do that through all the different moves in bitcoin. And they started selling into the $100,000 number. I actually think the cycle has been more muted by the institutional buying and by institutions. I mean BlackRock or Fidelity or the 11 or 12 ETFs that are out there that people have stepped into and started buying bitcoin could have gone down more if you just look at traditional cycles. So I'm in the camp that we're in a four year cycle, we're going to chop for a while, but by the fourth quarter of this year you'll start to see the traditional move that you get. And I think, and, and I think if you look at the whales, they're buying down here again. Yeah, at these lower numbers, I've been buying and I, I don't know if

[Scott Melker]

you've been buying like crazy.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah. So my attitude is, you know, Saylor's the most aggressive. He's got a $13 million price target. I think Skybridge, we have a, you know, 20, $32 million price target. We think it gets there by the end of that. That's a six years from today. You know, it's another halving into that cycle. And so if you get the opportunity to buy it here, buy it. But I think what happens in our industry, we want everything yesterday. So Trump comes in, whatever you and I both think of him, he's perceived as pro crypto. We get a big run, there's positive crypto regulation coming. Atkins is pro crypto. All of that is good news. And so people were expecting in 25, myself included, and I got it wrong. 150 crypto, it didn't happen. And now people are in the doldrums and so you can't be in the markets like me for 38 years and see a greed fear index which is 0 to 100 at 5. So you have the fear indexes at 5 and be overly bearish. You can't as a person because I can tell you that's when you're making your money. Okay, you go to Davos, Switzerland in 2007, we're growing right to the moon. And of course we had the 2008 crash. You get the Davos in January of 2009. We're going into the earth.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah, everybody's going to zero.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

And then you have a 10 year bull market. So I would just tell people these levels, could it trade lower? Sure, anything can happen. It's bitcoin, but we're getting to getting close to the bottom.

[Scott Melker]

I think so too. And if you look actually historically, not that it has to repeat itself, but when you get to these kind of levels using whatever technical indicator you like, weekly RSI being oversold for fourth of a time, you tend to see this long, very annoying time of chop and consolidation. But it is a bottom. It doesn't mean that a certain price was the bottom, but a bottoming event when you can just sit here and accumulate and you get time based capitulation, people just quit. Like so many people have already quit.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So it's such a good point. So let me provide more evidence. I'm going to take you back to 1Q23 where we were all annihilated after FTX. Bitcoin was cratering in January, February and then all of a sudden the Silicon Valley bank looked like it was going to fail. Government had to step in and you blipped 5,000. You went from like 22 to 27,000 on your way to the low 30s. And everybody was looking around saying how the hell did that happen? And so it was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again. And I think we'll get there now again, I've talked to a lot of people in this room. A lot of people say no, you're wrong, Anthony, we're going to go way lower because no one is floated, nobody is floating in the bitcoin ocean. Where's the blown out trader, the over lever guy that got taken out on a stretcher? But I don't think you're going to see that because of the introduction of the ETFs.

[Scott Melker]

They already got taken out a couple of years ago.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

That's what I Think that's what I think. And so, and by the way, it's a very muted bear market for Bitcoin. A 35, 40% drop in Bitcoin. It sucks. I'm not saying it doesn't, but it's a garden variety bear market.

[Scott Melker]

In 21, we went to 65, down to 28 in a matter of weeks and back to, I mean 69. A 55% drawdown in a year that when people look back, are thinking it was the most bullish year that they'd experienced. And remember, that was a big first, like retail bull market.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

China said get out. Yeah, same day.

[Scott Melker]

And Tesla members stopped accepting bitcoin in April, May, whatever. But there was a 55% drawdown. And people back then, I don't remember them this depressed or upset or that the bear market was so bad, they had a much, I think, firmer belief that things would go back up. I also, by the way, don't hear people talking about the silver bear market. And it dropped 50% in a week.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I'm with you and you're making my point, actually. But I just say this to you. If you said to me in January of 2023 that Bitcoin was going to be 65,000 in February of 2000, I would be so excited. Well, that's bitcoin. Bitcoin got us to 126. So now we feel terrible at 65,000. And the truth is you own bitcoin. So I own one bitcoin before the rally. I own one bitcoin during the bear market. Frankly, I bought more bitcoin. But I'm making the point. You own bitcoin. Stay the course. And I saw your interview with Lynn Alden in the quarter. Nothing stops this train, Scott.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah, I spoke to her this morning as well. And still, not to keep you in suspense, but she still thinks nothing stops this train. But it's not just bitcoin world anymore. Right. I do feel like there's an element of have and have nots, which is whether you have some level of institutional adoption or you're left out in the cold.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

And again, don't forget this, you know, and I'll make this prediction on your air. I think clarity, the Clarity act does get passed.

[Scott Melker]

Good. I'll take the other side.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Okay. But it won't look, but you see. Let me reframe it.

[Scott Melker]

No, but I think you might be right.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I think the Clarity act is going to get passed in a way that you won't like. I won't like. It'll be a watered down diluted version of the Clarity Act. It won't be the, the bill that you would like to get passed is not getting passed.

[Scott Melker]

I agree with that.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Okay, so it'll be, it'll. But it will be a bill. Let me tell you why that's important because I, I got my 11 day PhD on the Washington chicanery.

[Scott Melker]

Okay, I remember.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

It's important because the enemy of progress in Washington is perfection. And so if Brian Armstrong's listening, whoever get something done, you got to get something done. Because once you get something done, you can add to it, you can have a no action letter. And I'll give a vivid example. Gensler did not want the cash spot. Bitcoin ETF did not want it. And then he shoved it on us. Where? Well, you had to put cash into it. You were selling, you had to take cash out of it. It was very tax unfriendly. But we got it done and now Atkins has modified it to make it more perfect. Right, Gensler, we got the Ethereum done. You can't have any yield, you have no staking. But now you can have staking. So you got to get something done that the industry can modify and adapt and build on. And by the way, if you don't get something done and the Democrats win

[Scott Melker]

the House, Elizabeth Warren's going to be crafting the Clarity Act.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

They're not friendly to us and it'll be a lot harder. I'd rather get something done here. That is a bill that nobody in this room will 100% like.

[Scott Melker]

I mean, isn't that, you know, compromise is something that everybody's uncomfortable with?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Making my point, that's exactly right.

[Scott Melker]

You think it gets past, I imagine then before midterms because once we're fully in midterm season, nothing will happen. Right.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

You know, McHenry, who's a retired congressman now, said Memorial Day, I think it's going to happen before the end of March.

[Scott Melker]

Are you concerned that some of the provisions, since this is a bill that likely lasts 100 years, could be Trojan horses or something that's so aggressive towards the industry that we have massive unintended consequences?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah, I think short term, yes, I think it will suck short term and I think people will complain about it short term. But once it's in place, I think you're going to have a Pro Crypto 2026 election, meaning people that are going to win, I think on the Democratic side are going to be pro crypto. And I think the Republicans have generally proven to be Pro Crypt. And so I think the next iteration and the amendments and the no action letters will be better than what it originally starts at.

[Scott Melker]

What happens to all the projects that we've loved for all these years if they don't get an ETF or they don't get some meaningful level of institution adoption? It feels like a have and have nots world now.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Well, that's going to.

[Scott Melker]

Everybody talks about Bitcoin, Eth, Solana, maybe xrp. Nobody talks about the ones that don't have an etf.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So Elon Musk went on Saturday Night Live. You remember when he did the top

[Scott Melker]

of all tops and I called my, my aunt called me before that.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

May of 2021.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah. Okay.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

And Doge was going like this. And then the minute he got on and did his monologue, dead top, it went like forever.

[Scott Melker]

The forever top so far.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

And if you had said to me in May of 2021, which hard to believe is five years ago, there are 25,000 coins on CoinGecko, how many of those coins, Scott, are going to zero?

[Scott Melker]

24,900.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

That's the facts. And what I would also say to you, there's so much coalfish behavior in this industry that I'm surprised

[Scott Melker]

that we're

[Anthony Scaramucci]

not there on 24,900.

[Scott Melker]

But now we have, I don't know how many millions of coins. I don't really count the pump fun ones that are launched and dying today. But we have millions of coins now.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

But you know what I mean, look at all these meme coins are shot, shot to hell. A lot of even the good use case coins are hurt badly. So I do think there's going to be a shakeout. There'll be a continued shakeout.

[Scott Melker]

But after that continued shakeout, some of them will rise from the ashes.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

No question there's going to be. This is a lot like there's two analogies I want to draw quickly. One is cloud computing. Twenty years ago, someone came to me, take all your confidential information, all your client data and take it off of your server. Put it on my server, like I'm not doing that. And then they said, well no, you are going to do that because it's cheaper, it's more secure and it's anonymous. So if someone breaks into your office to get your client data, they can't get it and it's on an anonymous server farm somewhere. They were right, I was wrong, and we all adopted that. And now you have, I don't know, 12 different cloud vendors. That's the layer one industry to me, there will be a real world asset token for real estate. There'll be a stock and bond token. The New York Stock Exchange may use Solana. I don't know what they'll use, but there'll be different vertical sleeves. And we'll be sitting here 10 years from now, there'll be 10 tokens that are the operating layer for real world activity, real world liquefaction. And that will hurt the 2000, the 24,900, but the industry will be doing better at that moment. Other example I would give is the Uber example. You know, the banks are the taxicab company.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

The banks are going to the government crying. I want you to block the guy that has better technology and less bricks and mortar than me. It's going to offer higher yield to the customer, which is better for the customer. I want you to stop them and I want you to prevent them from doing that. That's what the taxicab commissions were like. Didn't go well and it didn't go low. Stop. Go morph your company. Don't hold on to something that's going to change. Embrace the change.

[Scott Melker]

Now, I heard a really interesting take I had not heard before about the Clarity act today from Chris Giancarlo, talking to him earlier. And he said that the banks need the Clarity act more than the crypto companies, and not because of the yield, because they actually can't innovate and adopt the technology until there's laws in place. So actually they're being held back to some degree.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Well said.

[Scott Melker]

Which is. I had not heard anybody say that before, and that was strange.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

It's well said. Because they need. They need quote, unquote, clarity to allow for custody. But think about it, though. They don't want it.

[Scott Melker]

Right.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

They're telling, we're telling the Congress slow them down, but that's what it is.

[Scott Melker]

It's slow them down so we can catch up.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

That's a dinosaur instinct. Okay. But evolve. Otherwise you're going to get hit with the meteor, you're not going to like it. Evolve.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah. Obviously the big narratives now. Stablecoins, tokenization, real world assets. How investable do you view that for your average retail person? I think, because there's obviously a chance that a lot of that is captured by Wall Street's private this, private that our tokens don't.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah. So let me talk as a former private banker.

[Scott Melker]

Right.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I can tell you that there's an ease of use on Wall Street. And let's talk about the people that have the Money. The people that have the money are 60 plus. They're the baby boomers. And when you came out with a Bitcoin etf, they're like, oh, I can call Morgan Stanley, I can call Merrill lynch, buy me the Bitcoin etf. Those people, even though it's very easy for you or me and very versatile, they're not going on Robinhood, they're not going on Coinbase, they're not doing it. But if they can call their broker or I can call my private banker at JP Morgan and say, hey, buy me half a million Circle usdc. And USDC is yielding xyz. It's very easy. In other words, the easier you make it for the richest group of people, the more adoption you're going to get.

[Scott Melker]

I agree. Which is kind of contrary to the cryptos for everybody, progressive nature of it. But that really is the truth. That's what's going to move the market.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

That's what's going to move the market.

[Scott Melker]

So that said, what do you view as the future for Stable Point adoption now that we have Genius? Because clearly that's been the killer use case, right? That's the one. We have clarity.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yes. I think that stable coins, you know, I, I, I hate to paraphrase Giancarlo, but I think he's giving you a good point. Stable coins are going to do well. You got the genius act in place, there'll be more market share of stablecoins. But until the banks can have their own stablecoin or be able to have Circle or Tether in their custody, they're not going to scale to the extent that we would all want them to scale. So you do need this second leg of the legislation to happen. And you know, Tom Emmer said to me, and he was really pushing last year to try to do both at once, and that would have been way better for all of us here in the industry.

[Scott Melker]

Barlow said exactly that. He's like, man, looking back, I really wish we had just gotten them both done because it's become the main point, basically. It's become not only left and right political, but you have those two powerful forces. But all the lobbies are against each other too. You have crypto versus the banks versus the politicians. That's why I just feel like it's so muddy, muddled and that, and that

[Anthony Scaramucci]

could be the reason why it doesn't get done, but offsetting it is Fair shake. Yeah, exactly. And when I call the crypto corporates, because Fair Shake and the crypto corporates could spend A half a billion dollars on the midterm election. And remember they spent $40 million on the Sherrod Brown election in Ohio. Yeah. And he was at 18, he was a three term veteran and you know this. But three term veterans have like a 95% reelection rate and they dumped the money. Grassroots campaign, negative campaign, they knocked him into center field. And I don't think the younger Democrats are going to want that for themselves. And I think the thing we learned in 2024, I don't know if you would agree with me, but there's no anti crypto voter. Elizabeth Warren says we're have an anti crypto army. Why there's, there's pro crypto and they're single issue crypto voters, but there's no anti crypto voter. So if I'm your consultant and you're the candidate, I'm like, give it up, man, just shut up. You know, give it up. Just be neutral or pro crypto. Yeah.

[Scott Melker]

It makes no sense. But interestingly, it feels like the anti crypto army, not on the voting side but in politics, is peeking its head out again.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Exactly.

[Scott Melker]

Because of Elizabeth Warren.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Exactly.

[Scott Melker]

But I think they've been emboldened by Trump's participation in the industry itself and they see that as a potential political.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

We're being objective. He hurt. You know, I was on a panel in Davos, Switzerland with Brian and Jenny Johnson, January 2025, and he had just launched his meme point. I said, guys, this is going to hurt us because a regulator or a Democrat in opposition to the president is going to be miffed about this and is going to want to not vote for him. Not going to want to give him a win on something. See what I mean?

[Scott Melker]

Yeah.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So he weirdly is a pro crypto president, but that sort of stuff. Too much backflow on the industry. Too much backflow, Yeah.

[Scott Melker]

I mean, that's what's led to my belief that clarity is less likely to pass because I think the Democrats will want that ethics clause and he ain't signing it.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I think they're going to cut him some slack on the ethics clause because they don't want to go up against Fair shake. That's my prediction.

[Scott Melker]

Amazing how politics.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Well, it's about the money, man. Follow the money man, follow the money.

[Scott Melker]

It's just like that. Isn't that what we were all here to.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

You know, I could be wrong, but I think that's what's going to happen.

[Scott Melker]

Wasn't that the promise of bitcoin was to not have to.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I mean that's what happens in life. Your ideas, as great as they are, they come in contact with the world, they come in tacticality, right? Like what Mike Tyson says, you got a plan, then you get punched. Or, you know, Eisenhower said, well, we got a battle plan. And then the 82nd Airborne, they landed 35 miles off the battle plan and they had to fight their way out of a 360 degree perimeter against the enemy. But they figured it out, and so we'll figure it out.

[Scott Melker]

So we obviously talked about Bitcoin to some degree. I'm assuming you're still bullish on Solana and some of the others.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I bought bitcoin last week. I'm bullish on Solana, I'm bullish on Avalanche. I mean, they're down a lot, but I like these positions long term. I think they have real use cases. We bought some stellar. Got a nice stablecoin industry there. Yeah, we got a collection of assets that we like, and again, some of them may not win, but we would prefer on our layer ones to take a portfolio approach.

[Scott Melker]

That's. I've been saying that for years. That hasn't worked great. But people would always say, you know, how. How should I invest in the industry? If I'm new and being a index fund investor, my view of what an index fund in crypto is just by layer ones. I'm not going to pick the 50x defi thing, but if it happens on Solana, I should gain some benefit from that.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

The only thing I would say, the only other thing I would caution people about, quote unquote indexing is look at what happened with Luna. So Luna was the seventh largest crypto project. And so if you just index, you would have gotten caught in Luna and, you know, maybe you would have sold it or. But, but, but, you know, a lot of people rode Luna, unfortunately to zero. So. So we have to be careful about things.

[Scott Melker]

Like, I learned that lesson the very hard way. I was so proud that I had no exposure to Luna when it was collapsing. Then I got an email from the CEO of arca, which I was invested in, about how they were doubling down at 24 bucks on the way down. So that went to zero for me.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

You know, our mutual friend Mike Novogratz had the same situation. Look, it's a tough industry, it's a new industry. And I have been humbled by life. I've been humbled by markets. And I think that it's the things that we think we know that we actually don't know, Scott. Those are the things that get us in trouble. If I know of a risk and I have a knowable risk, probably managing that. But if I think with great certainty something's going to do this, that is actually going to do that, that's when I get caught. You know, like my buddies had Lehman Brothers. They were very confident. Lehman Brothers was going the 300. It went from 44 to 89, 89 to 0. Right. It's, it's the things that you know or you think you know with great certainty that you actually don't know that get you in the most trouble.

[Scott Melker]

That makes a ton of sense. What do you think brings retail back to get people excited again? Because I can just tell you anecdotally, it seems like retail's gone.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah, well, that's why we're out of five on the Fear Greed Index. But I would say three things and all of which I think are going to take some time. Clarity act passes. I think you're going to get some use cases more Wall street tokenization. With Clarity, you're going to get the banks are going to be able to custody things like Bitcoin and then they're going to pick up the phone and slowly call their private banking customers and say, hey, we have our own Bitcoin ETF now. Or, you know, if you buy Bitcoin, you hold it here at this money center bank, we're going to get an XYZ yield off it and it's a call option on the future of money or future store of value. And then all of a sudden going to see the movement and then you'll catch the positive forces, the virtuous circle of that movement.

[Scott Melker]

On the tokenization side, Atkins, a few weeks ago, months ago, basically came out and said, listen, we think that most assets will be tokenized by the end of 2026. I couldn't believe that he said it. And then the DTCC had their news that they have received a no action letter from the SEC and they said by the end of 2026, everything would be on blockchain rails. Do you think things are going to actually happen that fast? That blew my mind. I didn't think that was possible.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So again, I think there's a but for in there. And I think the but is this is going to happen as long as we get the Clarity act passed.

[Scott Melker]

Right.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Of some semblance of it. If you're telling me that, you know, they don't want to give Trump a win and they've been throwing the towel on Clarity, you can't get the 60 votes in the Senate, you can't find 10 or 7 Democrats to vote for it, then I don't think it's going to happen. But if you tell me that you know I'm right or McHenry's right, it passes by Memorial Day, then I do think a preponderance of that will happen.

[Scott Melker]

What do you think happens if we don't get clarity and we do get some level of shuffling in the House and Senate?

[Interviewer]

Actually, I should ask you first, like,

[Scott Melker]

do you think we get a shuffling in the House and the Senate? I think it's a foregone, almost a foregone conclusion that something goes blue.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yes.

[Scott Melker]

Happens every time.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I think that they will. I think the Republicans will lose the House.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

I don't think they'll lose the Senate, but I want to stipulate that in February. Nine months in American politics is like 200 years. So a lot can happen. You know, if you tell me Wash comes in and he cuts rates and the economy's booming into the third quarter, then they're not going to lose anything. So. But if you're looking at sentiment today, the election was held tonight. They're losing.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Okay. So. Well, you got nine months. But having said that, if they do lose and clarity doesn't pass, we'll be okay. But we're going to grind, and those banks will not be able to step into this. The banks stepping into the industry, as painful as that is for the libertarians in this industry. It's good for the prices.

[Scott Melker]

It should be good for the prices. Listen, there's always been the notion that bitcoin will become the global reserve asset. But then the people who believe that are pissed off that institutions are involved. And there's no way you get there, even if you believe it, without plowing through the.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

But that could also be the excuse. It could be just that, hey, man, I held this thing for 15 years. Oh, that's 100%. I bought it at 10. When it got to 100,000, I told my wife I'm going to sell half of it because I. I got to make sure I have some diversity.

[Scott Melker]

It's really easy to be a libertarian when your portfolio is a million dollars and a hell of a lot harder when it's a billion dollars.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Right, exactly. Right.

[Scott Melker]

It is a good excuse, though, to get out.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

That's human nature, my man. Yeah.

[Scott Melker]

And just finally, I mean, the other thing I want to ask you about the treasury companies, because obviously that had a boom and a bust very fast. Looking at those, I mean, what do you think is the future there?

[Anthony Scaramucci]

So I bought Contrarian on this. I actually think there'll be some consolidation. If you tell me that we've got three or four Solana dats and they all merge and create one, I think it's possible. I think there'll be some consolidation on the Ethereum, dax, even some of the bitcoin ones. And if there isn't, I think there'll be some activism. Some of these things are trading below their navs, Right?

[Scott Melker]

Feels like an opportunity.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Yeah. So, I mean, again, it's so bad that generally when it's this bad, something good happens.

[Scott Melker]

I mean, if prices go up, yeah. But Magic Cure Bitcoin goes up.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

If you got something that's got $20 worth of value and it's priced at 12 on its way to 10, someone is going to step into that market and take that arbitrary.

[Scott Melker]

You'd think so. Well, man, I know you haven't gotten much sleep. You came in straight.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Came straight from consensus. I'm here for the wolf of all three.

[Scott Melker]

Maybe Pomp, too.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

And pomp, thank you.

[Scott Melker]

You guys are incredible. Thank you very much.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Pomp put me on a much lower chair at least.

[Scott Melker]

Yeah, we got a high chair at least.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

This is the place where I'm at.

[Scott Melker]

Height, parity and extreme heat.

[Anthony Scaramucci]

Thank you.

[Scott Melker]

Appreciate it, man.