Podcast Summary: "Bitcoin Is Following A Pattern Nobody Wants To Admit"

Podcast: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Anthony Scaramucci
Date: March 22, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Scott Melker interviews Anthony “Mooch” Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and prominent Bitcoin advocate. Together, they dig into the recent Bitcoin pullback, dissect the four-year crypto cycle, discuss the influence of institutional buyers, regulatory battles, stablecoins, and the future of retail participation. Scaramucci shares his candid views on why Bitcoin’s volatility is “garden variety,” why most crypto projects are doomed, and what institutional adoption and legislative clarity will mean for the next phase of digital assets. The tone is fast-paced, honest, and laced with Scaramucci’s characteristic humor.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Nature of the Current Bitcoin Cycle

• Scaramucci’s Thesis: The current 35–40% drop in Bitcoin is not extraordinary—just a normal cyclical correction, heavily shaped by self-fulfilling prophecies among long-term holders and OG “whales”.
  • Quote: "A 35, 40% drop in Bitcoin, it sucks. I'm not saying it doesn't, but it's a garden variety bear market." (Anthony Scaramucci, 00:14)
• Whale Behavior: Veteran holders saw $100k as a "magic dot" and started selling, reinforcing the 4-year cycle narrative.
  • Quote: "When you believe in something, you create a self fulfilling prophecy...they started selling into the $100,000 number." (AS, 00:25, repeated and expanded at 02:05)
• ETFs Muted the Crash: Institutional buyers like BlackRock “softened” what could've been a much sharper downturn, stabilizing the market with increased demand.
  • Scaramucci: "I actually think the cycle has been more muted by institutional buying—BlackRock, Fidelity, the ETFs… Bitcoin could have gone down more if you just look at traditional cycles." (AS, 02:58)

2. Signs of a Market Bottom & Investor Sentiment

• Fear/Greed Index Signal: The Fear and Greed index hitting record lows is, in Scaramucci’s mind, a screaming opportunity—not a reason to panic.
  • Quote: "The fear index is at 5 and be overly bearish. You can't as a person because...that's when you're making your money." (AS, 04:45)
• Market Chop as Capitulation: They discuss how repeated cycles see long periods of sideways movement that shake out weak hands before moves higher.
  • Melker: “You tend to see this long, very annoying time of chop and consolidation...you get time based capitulation, people just quit. Like so many people have already quit.” (SM, 06:03)
• Historical Parallels: Scaramucci likens current apathy to previous bottoms, like after FTX or post-2008 in tradfi.
  • Scaramucci: "It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again." (AS, 06:33)

3. Price Predictions and Long-term Conviction

• Moonshot Targets:
  • Scaramucci maintains a $2–3 million BTC price target by decade’s end, referencing MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor’s even bolder call.
    • Quote: “Saylor's the most aggressive...$13 million price target. I think SkyBridge, we have a, you know, $20, $32 million price target. We think it gets there by the end of that. That's six years from today.” (AS, 04:21)
• Stay the Course: Even those feeling “terrible” at $65k would have been ecstatic a few years ago. The lesson: hold and accumulate.
  • Quote: “Bitcoin got us to 126 [thousand]. So now we feel terrible at 65,000. And the truth is you own bitcoin. So I own one bitcoin before the rally...Stay the course.” (AS, 08:41)

4. The Coming Shakeout: Most Coins Are Going to Zero

• Survival of the Fittest: The vast majority of tokens will not survive the next shakeout.
  • Quote:
    • Melker: "24,900 [of 25,000 coins on CoinGecko]” will go to zero.
    • Scaramucci: “That's the facts...There's so much coalfish behavior in this industry...a lot of even the good use case coins are hurt badly. So I do think there's going to be a shakeout." (13:35)
• Analogy: Compares it to the dot-com and early cloud eras—eventually, only a handful of “operating layers” (tokens/platforms) will dominate global finance and markets.
  • Quote: "Twenty years ago, someone came to me, take all your confidential information...put it on my server...now you have 12 different cloud vendors. That's the layer one industry to me." (AS, 14:12)

5. Regulation, the Clarity Act & Institutional Adoption

• Regulation is Inevitable—But Compromised:
  • Mooch predicts the Clarity Act will pass, but in a watered-down form, which is still a net positive long-term.
    • Quote: "It's important because the enemy of progress in Washington is perfection...get something done. Because once you get something done, you can add to it..." (AS, 10:14)
• Banks Need Regulation Too:
  • Chris Giancarlo’s insight: banks are unable to innovate in crypto until there are rules—so ironically, they need legislative clarity more than crypto startups do.
    • Quote: "The banks need the Clarity act more than the crypto companies...they actually can't innovate and adopt the technology until there's laws in place." (SM quoting Giancarlo, 16:06; "Well said." - AS, 16:27)
• Politics and the Power of Lobbying:
  • With "Fair Shake" and crypto industry funding, being anti-crypto is politically risky—hence bipartisan support is growing.
    • Quote: "There's pro crypto and they're single issue crypto voters, but there's no anti crypto voter." (AS, 19:34)

6. Stablecoins, Tokenization, and the Next Wave

• Stablecoins Need Banks:
  • Adoption will be slow until major banks can custody and issue stablecoins.
    • Quote: "But until the banks can have their own stablecoin or be able to have Circle or Tether in their custody, they're not going to scale to the extent that we would all want them to scale." (AS, 18:33)
• Asset Tokenization as Killer Use Case:
  • DTCC projects most assets will be tokenized by 2026, but only if clarity is achieved.
    • Quote: "If you're telling me that...they don't want to give Trump a win and they've been throwing the towel on Clarity, you can't get the 60 votes in the Senate...then I don't think it's going to happen." (AS, 26:39)

7. Portfolio Strategy & Cautionary Tales

• Portfolio Approach:
  • Scaramucci is bullish on Bitcoin, Solana, Avalanche, and stablecoin infrastructure like Stellar, but urges diversification among “layer ones”.
    • Quote: "We would prefer on our layer ones to take a portfolio approach." (AS, 22:54)
• Beware Indexing:
  • Indexing crypto can be risky (e.g., Luna’s collapse); the unknown unknowns can hurt even seasoned investors.
    • Quote: “If I think with great certainty something’s going to do this, that is actually going to do that, that's when I get caught.” (AS, 24:21)

8. Retail’s Return: What Will Bring Back the Masses?

• What Triggers a Return?
  • Three factors: Passing of the Clarity Act, new Wall Street-backed use cases (tokenization), and banks offering custody/ETFs will reignite retail interest.
    • Quote: "Clarity act passes...the banks are going to be able to custody things like Bitcoin...going to see the movement and then you'll catch the positive forces, the virtuous circle..." (AS, 25:23)

9. The Future of Treasury and DeFi Companies

• Consolidation Coming:
  • After the boom and bust, Mooch sees likely M&A and activism among decentralized asset platforms, especially if priced below NAV.
    • Quote: “I think there’ll be some consolidation on the Ethereum, dax, even some of the bitcoin ones. And…there’ll be some activism. Some of these things are trading below their navs…” (AS, 29:20)

Notable Moments & Quotes (by Timestamp)

• 00:14: “A 35, 40% drop in Bitcoin. It sucks. I'm not saying it doesn't, but it's a garden variety bear market.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 02:05: “I've lived most of my life in denial. I think I'm 6'4... but you have to be realistic about bitcoin.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 04:45: “[When] the greed fear index…is at 5... that's when you're making your money.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 04:21: “Saylor's the most aggressive...$13 million price target. I think SkyBridge, we have a $20, $32 million price target.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 08:41: “Bitcoin got us to 126 [thousand]. So now we feel terrible at 65,000. And the truth is...stay the course.” — Anthony Scaramucci
• 13:35: "24,900 [of 25,000 coins] are going to zero." — Scott Melker and Anthony Scaramucci
• 14:12: "[Cloud computing]...That's the layer one industry to me, there will be a real world asset token for real estate, there'll be a stock and bond token..." — Anthony Scaramucci
• 16:06: "The banks need the Clarity act more than the crypto companies...they can't innovate and adopt...until there's laws." — Chris Giancarlo (quoted by Melker; Scaramucci agrees)
• 19:34: "There's pro crypto and they're single issue crypto voters, but there's no anti crypto voter." — Anthony Scaramucci

Additional Insights

• Humility & Learning: Both Melker and Scaramucci stress the importance of humility and adaptability in markets—no one is immune to surprises or losses.
• Institutional Adoption is a Double-Edged Sword: While essential for mainstreaming, institutions may crowd out crypto’s original ethos, creating tension among purists and pragmatists.
• "Human Nature" in Markets: Whether it's whales cashing out, banks lobbying for delay, or retail selling lows, Scaramucci makes the case that cyclical, emotional behavior is a constant through every era.

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive, unvarnished look at the current crypto landscape: while the cycle may feel brutal to many, Scaramucci argues it’s business as usual. The arrival of institutions, coming regulation, and inevitable shakeout of weak projects set the stage for the next decade. Meanwhile, patience and rational optimism are the order of the day—a message especially timely as fear peaks and narratives shift.