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The Wolf Of All Streets
"Bitcoin Is In A Bear Market & This Is Why It Feels Different" | Ben Cowen
00:53:39
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- [00:00]
Host
This bitcoin and crypto market feels different. And that's exactly why I wanted to have this conversation. I sat down with Ben Cowan to break down what might be the most misunderstood phase of this entire cycle. There's been no blow off top, no euphoric alt season, no retail frenzy. Instead, this looks a lot like a 2019 style top where bitcoin didn't peak on excitement, but rather peaked on apathy. In this interview, Ben walks through why bitcoin is holding up better than in prior bear markets.
- [00:30]
Ben Cowan
Normally at this point we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But I think the reason is because we didn't really have a lot of retail coming in and fomoing in at the top either.
- [00:42]
Host
While altcoins continue to bleed against bitcoin.
- [00:44]
Ben Cowan
And metals, I think a lot of those investors have learned some hard lessons this cycle. They're going to be a little bit more careful. They're going to want to make sure they put their money into something that they actually can kind of see what the utility is and it just isn't some future promise and why liquidity, not.
- [00:57]
Host
Narratives, is the real driver of what comes next.
- [01:01]
Ben Cowan
But what happened in 2019 is that Bitcoin started to show weakness several months before the stock market did. Right? Like the stock market continued to go up even while the valuation of bitcoin was dropping. When the stock market crashed and the Fed turned on the money printers, that's when the crypto markets got back in business.
- [01:22]
Host
If this kind of level headed data driven analysis helps you stay grounded in chaotic markets, make sure that you watch this video because this is where we focus on surviving. Now to your position for what comes next.
- [01:35]
Ben Cowan
That's dope. That's dope.
- [01:50]
Host
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- [03:12]
Interviewer
Description for more info. We spoke a couple months ago coming into Q4 with, I guess, cautious optimism. I don't even know if that's the correct term, but there were things that you wanted to see bitcoin and the market do to prove that the four year cycle was over, that there was some potential upside. Maybe we should revisit those ideas or at least set the table for where we're at now in January.
- [03:37]
Ben Cowan
Sure, yeah, let's do it. Yeah. I mean, look, you've been around crypto as long as I have, or I'm sure we've been around, around the same amount of time. It's hard to deny the similarities between the length of this cycle and the length of the last two. You know, obviously there's no such thing as a sure thing, but when I look at a chart like this, it certainly makes me think that, you know, we had our top in Q4 like we normally do and we're just simply in a bear market. But the nature of the way this potential, because it's not really confirmed, there's a lot of debate whether it's a bear market or not. As of right now, you could argue that bitcoin has dropped similar amounts, that it's dropped in prior drawdowns. Right. Like 30% or so. So this really isn't that different in that sense. But I, I think one of the things to consider is if the top is in, which has been my base case for the last couple of months or so, if the top is in, then why was it so different? Like why did it feel so different than the top in 2021? Why did it feel so different than the top in 2017 and also the top in 2013? And I think the reason is because you could argue that if the top is in, we, we actually topped on APATHY rather than euphoria. Right. There wasn't really a rotation into altcoins. There was not that euphoric feeling. We weren't seeing like the pie cycle top get triggered or bitcoin going to the terminal price, which is what it normally goes to before a top is in. We didn't really see all that happen. And so what I defer to is I look at the social interest. If you, if you look at Bitcoin's price color coded by really social interest, retail interest, you can see that retail interest is really low right now. So the top that we experienced here in October is more like a 2019 style top, in my opinion. Yeah. So I mean, I think this cycle, we have to ask ourselves, like, why does it feel so different? Like why did it. Normally we kind of end with a bang, right? Like there's some parabolic rally, everyone rotates into altcoins and then the whole thing comes crashing down. That's not really what happened. Instead, you could argue that if the high is in for the cycle, then we topped on apathy rather than euphoria. And you know, as far back as this chart goes, at least 2016, the only time that we had a consequential top during a time when retail was relatively uninterested was in 2019. Right. We, we saw bitcoin kind of top out and then slowly trend down back then as well. And there's actually a lot of similarities, I think, between the current structure of the market and what happened in 2019. So we've topped on apathy rather than euphoria. And so when that happens, you don't have the same type of selling pressure that you would have had had a lot of retail. New retail investors have joined. Normally when you're at a cycle top that peaks on euphoria, you have a very quick 50% drawdown. So if you look at the current bear market, which is this purple pink line, it's actually holding up a lot better than all the prior bear markets. Normally at this point we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But I think the reason is because we didn't really have a lot of retail coming in and fomoing in at the top either. So if you actually compare the current hypothetical bear market, I'm not looking to make anyone upset, but if you, if you compare the current hypothetical bear market to not the one in 2022, 2018 or 2014, but if you actually compare to the one in 2019, it actually tracks a little Bit better. So this is that chart, right? So the, the orange line is the current bear market potential potential. And then the blue line is what we saw happen in 2019. So I kind of think that this is what is happening right now. Also there's other similarities as well between the way that this cycle topped. If the top was October, which again has been my base case, then it topped about two months before quantitative tightening ended, before the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve started to go up. So if we just simply overlay that, you can see that the balance sheet of the Fed started to go up in December. And if you go back to 2019, you'll notice that the 2019 top occurred about a month or two before the balance sheet of the Fed started to go up as well. So there's a lot of similarities in like the way that it topped. Right. There was just. We didn't top on euphoria, we just topped on relatively lack of interest. And so what I kind of see happening is I see a slow bleed into the summer with slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. Right. That's kind of what happened in 2019. It wasn't a massive capitulation. It was just a series of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. And I think that'll likely last into the summer of 2026.
- [08:58]
Interviewer
It's interesting cause I never really hear People refer to 2019 as a standalone bull or bear market because it was somewhat mid cycle.
- [09:06]
Ben Cowan
Well, but that's the thing though. The reason is this entire. So if you look at this entire bull market that bitcoin has had, it was a cycle. It was a, it was a, basically a maxi cycle, right. Where bitcoin dominance went up the entire, the entire time. What happened in 2019 was also similar. Like bitcoin dominance went up the entire time. And there was not a rotation into altcoins after that cycle. Top and you'll notice that, you know, the bear market and then the subsequent bitcoin only bull market essentially started during a time of quantitative tightening. And that's really what happened the same thing this past cycle. Right. The bear market started around the time that you could see the end of qe. And then the bitcoin only bull market started before quantitative tightening was over. And then I think there was a lot of people expecting QE to come to the rescue. But in 2019, you know, QB started and Bitcoin still marginally went lower. So I, I think we have to think about it in terms of like, it's unfortunate that quantitative tightening Lasted as long as it did. Had it lasted, had it not been as long, you could have argued that maybe we would have seen that rotation. But because of when it ended, I. I just think we're kind of set up for that normal, bearish trend, at least for the first half of 2026. Maybe things will change in the second half.
- [10:26]
Interviewer
I've heard a lot of people make the argument that it did top, but as you said, it was muted upside. Nothing like the previous cycles where we had multiple X's. Right? I mean, we effectively went from a pre, from the bull market, top of the Last market at 69ish, give or take, depending on your exchange, up to we'll call it 126. Right. So not even a 2X. So if that was the case, then many people argue the downside would be muted, just as you've said, right? Like, if you didn't get the huge parabolic upside, why would we get 80% parabolic downside?
- [11:03]
Ben Cowan
Right. And I mean, if you look at that 2019 comparison, if you just kind of ignore the pandemic, it was basically a 50% drop, right? It was like a 54, 50 to 55% drop, which was sort of like a reasonable drop, sort of reset from. Right. We had a massive bull market. We had this drop by bitcoin. Altcoins went down as bitcoin went down, but they actually went up against bitcoin at some point during that downtrend, just because bitcoin was dropping quicker than the alts. And the reason bitcoin was dropping quicker than the altcoins back then was because bitcoin was essentially the only thing that participated in the bull market. You know, there's actually a lot of altcoins that are closer to their 2022 lows than their 2021 highs. In fact, one of the craziest charts you'll see, I think, is if you look at altcoins against the valuation of silver, they're actually below their 2022 lows. So the reason why there's just this lack of interest in crypto, even though bitcoin went up like 8x, is because almost everything else failed to participate in the actual bull market. And one way to really clarify this and to sort of definitively say that if you look at the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, you can see it's been dropping since November of 2021. The bull market that a lot of people remember so dearly from 2020 into 2021, we saw the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies increasing. Right. So basically this was a time where you could just basically buy anything and it was going to go up. Yeah. But ever since the end of 2021, it's been more of like, kind of like a stock picker scenario where you have to actually pick the cryptocurrencies. You can't just buy anything and expect it to go up. You have to be very selective. And you can see we also saw the advanced decline index dropping kind of into that 2019 style rally, and then it continued to drop after that, and then it only actually bottomed once interest rates really started to drop and once the money printers really came back on. And we're not there yet. Like we're just simply not there yet. And the reason we're not there is because the stock market continues to push to all time highs. Right. There's not really a great reason for the Fed to come to the rescue of the markets when they just keep on putting in new all time highs one month after another.
- [13:23]
Interviewer
I've never seen anyone benchmark all coins to silver, but it makes a lot of sense intellectually because that could be where a lot of the money that would have been in altcoins has landed. Right. Dave Weisberger calls it the hot ball of money, and he thinks the hot ball of money went from crypto to metals. I mean, do you believe that that could be part of the reason?
- [13:42]
Ben Cowan
Yeah, I mean, I think we're seeing sort of like a regime shift. If you look at the valuation of the S&P 500 against gold, we're at a very critical level right now. Let me zoom out. So you can actually see this maybe on like a monthly chart. Like the level we're at right now is somewhat of a critical, precarious level because we're kind of knocking against this door that we've knocked against several times. And if you just kind of extend this valuation to the 70s, you can see this is the same level that the stock market broke down against gold in the 70s as well. And so I, I think there's this transition period where people, a lot of people thought that some of the higher risk, frothier things like altcoins were going to rally. But in reality the entire bitcoin bull market was more of like a, more of defensive posturing in crypto. People were buying bitcoin as sort of that relative flight to safety, relative to altcoins. But then a lot of the people that bought bitcoin aren't really that interested in rotating into altcoins. You know, like a lot of those.
- [14:47]
Interviewer
People probably actually rotated out of altcoins that they finally capitulated on, but didn't want to go to cash and went to bitcoin. And then those people don't come back.
- [14:54]
Ben Cowan
Right, exactly. That was the entire bull market is people basically selling alts, buying bitcoin and then, and then new people buying bitcoin through the ETFs. Right? Like that was the entire bull market. There was not a whole lot of interest in alts. And so now that that rotation hasn't happened, I think a lot of people have started to give up. And you know, as we say, there's always a bull market somewhere. And of course that bull market has been in metals for a long time. And you know, there's been a couple of times in the past where stocks broke down against metals. Once in 1973 from the same level and then of course also in 2008. So you're kind of seeing, you're kind of seeing that, that rotation of people. You know, they're tired of waiting for alt season so they just start looking elsewhere and they, and they want to, you know, they want to make money, right? They don't just want to sit around and twiddle their thumbs forever waiting for something that may or may not ever happen. And so I think you're seeing like a shift in investor sentiment, right? You're basically seeing people kind of say, all right, it's people giving up, right? It's just, it's time based capitulation, you know. So I think that's kind of where we are right now.
- [15:59]
Interviewer
It's interesting when you then look at bitcoin versus stocks as you have on the chart that you're showing the trader and you wants to say, well, the gold top is probably in, right? Because you're sitting at support. You buy support, I guess, and then see what the market gives you.
- [16:15]
Ben Cowan
But oh, you're talking about the case.
- [16:16]
Interviewer
Either way, depending on your sentiment, you're.
- [16:18]
Ben Cowan
Talking about the S and P against gold.
- [16:20]
Interviewer
Sorry, what did I say? I meant the S and P versus gold. The chart that you were showing where it's at a critical level that goes all the way back to the 70s. Well, you know, you want to kind of buy the first support of a critical level.
- [16:31]
Ben Cowan
Right. But the point, the important thing to recognize though is that in 2000 or, sorry, in 1973 and in 2008 when the support level broke down, gold actually continued to rally after the S and P broke down against gold. It was the reason why, the reason why the valuation went down so much after support broke was because gold was going up at the same time that the stock market was falling. So that was kind of what led to that, that massive, that massive drop. In fact, in 1973 when this broke down, that short term top on gold didn't even occur until about six months later. And in 2008 after it broke down, that short term, that or that more of longer term top didn't occur until about 40 weeks later. So for me, like I, I know the medals are, are crazy and everyone's screaming that it's the top and they've been screaming it for months and yeah, like we're gonna have some pullbacks. But at the same time I don't want to go sell my winners and go buy the losers, right? Like I don't want to go sell my medals and, and go buy something a lot riskier. When usually one of the main forms of technical analysis that I even believe in is momentum. An asset that is going up is more likely to continue going up than an asset that's not right. So gold is more likely to continue going up than some random altcoin or some random stock that's just been bleeding for the last several years. And so I think the important thing is just to try to ride the bull market and metals for as long as possible and at some point it'll give us signs that it's over. But for now, I do remain relatively bullish on, on metals against a lot of the, a lot of the risk assets. But I again, like, I've expressed these sentiments for a long time and I think the hard part is for people to, it's hard for people to pivot, right? Like they feel like if they pivot they're going to pivot at the low and then they're going to, and then they're going to miss alt season. Right? But I think it's, I think all investors have to be willing to recognize that there's always a bull market somewhere and there's going to be a bull market in crypto again for sure. At least that's my opinion. But when, when the markets kind of slow down and they're not doing what you want, you just go find where the bull market is. And the bull market's been in metals for a couple of years now.
- [18:49]
Interviewer
When we get the bull market in crypto again, do you think that it will be throw a dart and everything goes up like it was in that one period that you showed or do you think it will go back to being like stock picking as you said before?
- [19:04]
Ben Cowan
It's a good question. I mean I think it depends a lot on monetary policy. I don't think we're going to enter a scenario where like everything just goes up because you know, back in, put it this way, there were more coins minted on a single day in 2021 than, than there were from like 2009 until, or sorry, not 2021. There's more coins minted in a single day in 2025 than there were from like 2011 all the way to say like 2021. So I, I, I don't really think everything that has been created will, will eventually go up. I think most of that, most of the meme coins, most of all that stuff will just go asymptotically to zero. But I could both those things have.
- [19:45]
Interviewer
Gone asymptotically to zero for.
- [19:46]
Ben Cowan
Right, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [19:47]
Interviewer
That were being minted on pump fun that you know, never even.
- [19:50]
Ben Cowan
Right. Of course I could see a scenario though where there's more broad participation in like the top 25 to 50 crypto. Like I could see a scenario where it's not just bitcoin and like one or two altcoins going up. It could be bitcoin, it could be the entire market is going up. At least the ones that, that people start to sort of assume there's actually more value in. I think we're kind of transitioning from it because I think a lot of crypto investors are relatively young because that's kind of what it naturally attracted was younger investors. I think a lot of those investors have learned some hard lessons this cycle. And so I think in future cycles they're going to be a little bit more careful. They're going to want to make sure they put their money into something that they actually can kind of see like what the utility is and it just isn't some future promise. But yeah, I do, I do think the next bull market for crypto will likely have more broad participation. But I, I don't think it, I don't think it's, it's starting right now. And I will say one more thing. I mean even in 2026 there will be some altcoins that put in new all time highs. There's always, there's always something that does well. In 2022 we saw Luna put in new all time highs and then it went to zero. So there will be some things that, that can go to new highs. It's just that the collective market isn't likely going to, to join in until there is a more durable shift in liquidity conditions. And I don't really think that's going to change until the S and P starts showing weakness. Right.
- [21:19]
Interviewer
We need the stock market to drop basically to get any meaningful and getting a meaningful form of liquidity. And it's been very stubborn.
- [21:27]
Ben Cowan
Right. It's a tough spot to be on. And also if you own a lot of index funds like I do, it's like I don't want to root against myself either. Like, it's like it's a, it's a weird place to be. It's like, do I root for the stock market to drop so that the federal then come in and provide more liquidity? But if that happens, then my stock portfolio goes down. So it's kind of a hard position to be in. But basically that's what happened in 2019. Like, if you look at the valuation of bitcoin against the S and P, that's this, this chart right here. It basically just looks like the bitcoin chart because, you know, the S and P has moved in a negligible way compared to it. But what happened in 2019 is that Bitcoin started to show weakness several months before the stock market did. Right. Like, the stock market continued to go up even while the valuation of bitcoin was dropping against stocks. And then when the stock market crashed and the Fed turned on the money printers, that's when, that's when the crypto markets got, got back in business. I just think that the current downturn that we're in is going to last, you know, for at least the first half of 2026. Like, I don't think, think we're going to get back in business with the over, you know, more of a broader bull market. I don't think that's going to happen until, until 2027 or 2028.
- [22:41]
Interviewer
The more politically cynical side of me agrees with you. Just because they don't really need to ramp up the Reddit rhetoric, liquidity, start pulling the levers and pushing the buttons until midterm season.
- [22:52]
Host
It would almost be a waste right.
- [22:53]
Interviewer
Now to do it. Won't get them votes in January. They're going to need those votes in September.
- [22:59]
Ben Cowan
Right. So I think they're gonna wait. And also too, with, with the recent stuff that's happened with the President and Jerome Powell, if you look at, at expectations for a rate cut, they've basically dropped a lot. I don't even Know if Jerome Powell wants to cut rates again before he leaves, before he leaves as the, as the, the chair, like right now, there's still a 60% chance the Fed holds rates constant until Powell is no longer chair of the Federal Reserve. So you know, I think that's going to continue to remain a headwind for, for the crypto markets.
- [23:38]
Interviewer
Yeah. It's been such an interesting time for the definitions of risk on and risk off. Right. Because if you're viewing gold as the hedge against risk or being risk off, yeah, it's gone up massively. Silver's gone up massively, which I would say is actually a little more risk on. Almost like an altcoin going up. Bitcoin does, you know, silver versus gold. But stocks have remained, as we said, stubborn and high. And now you take a look at the markets of late and yeah, the Mag 7 has been dropping slightly, but there's been a rotation into the Russell smaller caps which are making all time highs. So it's not like money is leaving the stock market. You're having a rotation which is usually somewhat bull market stuff. So it's not like stocks viewed as risk on have performed badly.
- [24:24]
Ben Cowan
Right? Yeah, I mean I don't, I don't think we're like, we haven't really been in a risk off environment for, for stocks it's more been risk on. It's, it's been more risk off for crypto. Right. Like it's, it's, it's crypto that hasn't really done anything in a while. Stocks have, have continued to do well. But I think it makes sense when you think about it because stocks have a lot more passive flows through 401ks and all this other stuff. I think crypto is a lot further up the risk curve. It's closer, you know, it reacts a little bit quicker and it's more tied to liquidity, I think than the stock market. And so I think that's kind of the reasoning for that. But again, we saw the Russell do the same thing sort of in the last business cycle when quantitative tightening ended and rates kind of came down, but they didn't go down far enough. The Russell continued to go up for the rest of 2019 even though crypto started, started to struggle. So I still see a lot of similarities between it. I think the hardest part for investors is kind of reconciling like the four year cycle and the 2019 top. Right. But if you just think about the bleed that we had after the 2019 top and just say, all right, that's what's happening right now in 20, you know, since October, going into 2026, it still kind of lines up and we could still have a intact four year cycle. It's just that the drawdown in 2026 could hopefully be a lot more muted than the ones we had in like say 2014, 2018.
- [25:55]
Interviewer
Well, I would say that looking at 2019 as a corollary for this top should get people excited and more encouraged because it might imply that we don't have a three year drawdown or you know, bear market ahead of us, that it's more of a mid cycle top and we have an extended version of whatever the cycle was before.
- [26:13]
Ben Cowan
What's funny is that I could see a definitely, I see that argument and I think it makes a lot of sense and I think you could argue that that's the way it'll play out. It's funny though because it still just happens to line up perfectly with the midterm year just kind of being somewhat bearish. Even though, you know, you could argue that we just had, we sort of had our non euphoric top. Right? Like our 2019 top was our non euphoric top and then our 2021 top was our euphoric top. So does that mean that our 2025 top is our non euphoric top and then maybe our 2027, 2028 top or something is our more euphoric top. Right? It could be like that. I'm not against that idea. I could see it playing out like that, but it's hard to speculate that far into the future.
- [26:59]
Interviewer
Is there anything on your radar beyond liquidity conditions that could be a catalyst for this market to jump?
- [27:08]
Ben Cowan
Well, I mean, I would say normally what happens after a drawdown like the one we've had is. Let me share my screen again. A lot of times there will be a counter trend rally by bitcoin. Right. So you know, even, even if the top is in, that doesn't, that doesn't mean that, that doesn't mean you have to go be bearish right this second. Right. Like in fact, if you look at the prior midterm year bear markets, what you'll notice is in the last two, there was a rally to the 50 week moving average at some point in the midstream year.
- [27:41]
Interviewer
101 ish on. You're talking about on the weekly, I assume.
- [27:44]
Ben Cowan
On the weekly, yeah. And right now that's around 101K. So you know, like I'm not against bitcoin going back up to 100k like it could. I just think that you have to be open minded to that being a lower high. And, and one of the things to look at is like every time that bitcoin has lost the 50 week moving average, okay? So if you just kind of go through it, if you look at 2014, we lost the 50 week. We then went to the 100 week, stayed there for a little, and then we went to the 200, right? So then the next one, we lost the 50, we went to the 100 and then the 200 and then the next one we lost the 50. We consolidated at the 100 for a while and then eventually we went to the 200. We actually went a little bit below the 200 and then this cycle again, we lost the 50. Now that we're at the 100, I know we want to, I know we want it to be different, but every other time this has happened, it's just led to a counter trend rally back to the 50 before it dropped to the 200. So I mean, I think the, the potential catalyst for a rally is just simply, you know, a lot of people are going to look at this chart and feel like they're going to be smart and they want to go, you know, short the market or something really, really risky. And then the market just simply rips them a new one, you know, and goes back up to the upside and then it drops. Right? So again, the market often plays, you know, it plays out in a different way than a lot of people expect. Usually it liquidates people in one direction and then liquidates people in the other. So maybe that would be the rationale for it. It's just if everyone believes in it. Also, one more thing, the other rationale as a catalyst. I know maybe you were talking more about narratives, but you know, usually after bitcoin drops like three months in a row, you kind of get a rally, right? I mean, there's plenty of times where like in 2021, Bitcoin dropped three months in a row and then we got a two month rally, right? In 2019, we got a three month drop and then we got at least one month of a rally. So we just had three red months. And so perhaps it's just time to have a little bit of a reprieve for a little while.
- [29:41]
Interviewer
Yeah, I mean, people I think look back at 2021 through rose colored glasses is this incredible year in bull market. But we went from 65 to below 30 in a matter of weeks and stayed there for a while and slowly rose and then 69 and then a brutal crash. Right. That was brutal for people.
- [30:01]
Ben Cowan
Right. And, well, the bull market really was in 2020. You know, I mean, that was when, I mean, bitcoin rallied from like 3,800 to what, like 42,000 or something? Maybe not quite 42,000. I don't know, 30,000. I mean, I feel like people just.
- [30:18]
Interviewer
View 2021 that way because that January until summer was such a monster alt season.
- [30:23]
Ben Cowan
Right. But I feel like a majority of the gains that investors that had already been here, like a lot of the gains were obtained in those that last six months of 2020. And then we just kind of got to party a little bit longer going into.
- [30:37]
Interviewer
And that was sailor. I mean, the real catalyst at that time was microstrategy coming in and buying and then square and testing.
- [30:45]
Ben Cowan
Bitcoin was up from the 2020 low to the 2020 high. Bitcoin was up almost 10x. Bitcoin only went up another 2x in 2021. It was mostly in 2020 where it went up.
- [30:57]
Interviewer
It was interesting. I had a conversation with Rand Nooner about the market recently, and he kind of made the point. If you just scoot the timeline back and you don't look at it as a year to date or January 1st and January 1st, you just go October to Bitcoin 2x'd this cycle, you know, like 24 to 25, if you just look at October. So there are ways to, I guess, manipulate the chart or your view to say, hey, this was a pretty decent bull market.
- [31:23]
Ben Cowan
Yeah. And I mean, speaking of, I tend to think of it more as like the 2019 bear market. But I don't want to miss the opportunity to say that thing for October, because if you look at the December 2017 top. So it was December, and then the low was December. Right. And then the next cycle it was November, and then the low was in November. This time it was October. So, look, I think you could have a low as early as the summer, but if bitcoin is printing a fresh low, October 2026, there's a good chance that's the bottom. Yeah.
- [31:58]
Interviewer
I just wonder at what price it would be doing that.
- [32:01]
Ben Cowan
Yeah, I mean, I mean, look, we've already. We've already had several months. Like, the good news is if we are in a bear market, we're already like, several months into it, you know, So I think we're holding up better than we were in prior bear markets. I just think there's going to be another downturn, like going into the Summer. Right. Going into the summertime is, is kind of how I think it's going to play out. And then from there we might be pretty close to whatever the low is. I will say though, I mean normally bitcoin checks in with its 200 week moving average every. Every few years.
- [32:34]
Interviewer
57 right now.
- [32:36]
Ben Cowan
Yeah, yeah.
- [32:37]
Interviewer
But every time it has gone back up and tested the 50 as resistance, as you said. So that would mean that if you believe it's going to hit the 200, you should get an opportunity to exit at 100 or 101.
- [32:48]
Ben Cowan
Right. And the 200 week. Yeah, it's approaching 58K. So I mean, I think there's a good chance bitcoin will tag the 200 week moving average within the next year.
- [32:57]
Interviewer
I mean, listen, if it's October, I'm not saying it will be, just if you're throwing out kind of dates into the future, that line may be at 66 or 67.
- [33:06]
Ben Cowan
Right, right.
- [33:07]
Interviewer
Which is not that much lower than the 74 low we recently had.
- [33:12]
Ben Cowan
Exactly, yeah. So I mean, I think for me if bitcoin, you know, if it's the summer October and if bitcoin is sitting like 60k, 70k or something, like who knows if it's actually the bottom. But it seems like it would be dangerous to be too deterministic about it going lower. Right. Especially if it's October and bitcoin say like 60k. I don't think I could look at that and be like, oh no, it has to go lower. I'd probably start leaning more bullish at that point.
- [33:40]
Interviewer
That's not a high reward short, right?
- [33:43]
Ben Cowan
Exactly.
- [33:43]
Interviewer
But man, it kind of goes back to what you've been pounding the pavement on for so long about altcoins and bitcoin dominance. Bitcoins at 60s or 70s in October, altcoins that have gone down 90% will likely be down another 90%.
- [34:00]
Ben Cowan
Yeah, that's the hard thing. I think a lot of people think that like the altcoin market like owes them something, like they like that it has to work out. But think about like, think about how many people have like lost money trading like penny stocks, you know, Like I feel like the majority of people that trade penny stocks over the long haul, like only a small fraction of them ever make a lot of money. Most of those penny stocks just go to zero essentially. With altcoins it's no different. I think we've just kind of gotten used to them doing exceptionally well for so long and now this is the first cycle where they didn't actually rally like, people thought. And now, you know, here we are. People are like, all right, well, now what I. I think the problem is people think they. They're too late for bitcoin, so they want to go buy something else. But then the other things they buy just keep bleeding to Bitcoin. You know, sometimes the hardest thing to do is. Is to just buy the lowest risk asset in the asset class. And sometimes that's the one that just does the best.
- [34:53]
Interviewer
You're the guy who said you own a lot of index funds, right? So that's the proper approach. I mean, anyone who dollar cost averages in a retirement account is probably buying Spy or some sort of Vanguard mutual fund that tracks their retirement. I mean, that's the way that people have gotten rich over time. It's never. It's never been on trying to gamble on something that is a 1 in 100 chance, right? That's not what people have done.
- [35:19]
Ben Cowan
And it is, it is. It is absolutely possible to get rich by concentrating on a single thing. Like, if you. If you just concentrate. Like, I mean, I know people that have been all in on silver for a long time and now, like, look at them now, right? Like, they've made a ton of money. But the way I feel like for most people to have, like, a better chance of getting wealthy is just to take a lot of, like, you know, to have sort of like a well diversified portfolio that just generally trends up with time, and then you look back at it, like, 10 or 15 years later, and you've made a lot of money. If you take the other route and you decide to be very concentrated, it can work out, right? Like, it can. Look at what Saylor did. I mean, it can work out, but there's a lot of people that do that, and it doesn't work out for them, and then they wish they had been somewhat diversified. So, I mean, I think it can make some sense to take some concentrated bets if you have, like, a strong conviction on something. But I think having, like, you don't want to be the guy that, like, literally lost everything because you were all in on a single asset, right? Because every single asset has its own idiosyncratic risk. And you cannot. We cannot plan for it. We cannot know it. We can't. I would never want my entire net worth on. On one asset, basically. So by being diversified, I can. I can sleep better at night because I'm like, all right, well, I have some in bitcoin, I have some in metals. I have some in stocks. And then I have like a little bit in cash in case we do get this drawdown in crypto so that I can actually buy the dip and I can sleep it and I can sleep at night with a, with a portfolio like that.
- [36:47]
Interviewer
You haven't started buying the dip yet, I assume.
- [36:50]
Ben Cowan
No, not. Well, not, not in, not in crypto. I mean I basically exited some of the bitcoin positions that I had in Q4 and I still own like 30% of my Bitcoin stack. And you can say, well, why would you own 30% if you're so convinced? It's kind of an admission of like, who knows what's going to happen, right? I've given my take on the market, but if I'm wrong, I don't want to hold no bitcoin. I'd like to hold something and when.
- [37:19]
Interviewer
It happens for bitcoin, it happens so fast. Bitcoin might not give you much of a chance to realize that you were wrong. I would say when you look at the market, the way that you've laid it out, you have a very strong thesis. I guess my next question was going to be like, what disposal proves that thesis? I think for a lot of people it's if all of a sudden bitcoin just cracks above that 50mA on the weekly. Like what if Bitcoin goes like 98, 99 sideways and then puts in a $10,000 candle?
- [37:45]
Ben Cowan
Oh yeah. Then I think I'd have to say I'm wrong. Like if bitcoin goes back to like 110k and starts printing weekly, closes there like absolutely. I'd have to say, all right, I'm wrong. This isn't like, I do think bitcoin will go back to 110k. I just don't think it's going to happen like right now. Right. Like I think we're kind of in a slow bleed right now waiting for liquidity. So yeah, if it wants to prove me wrong, I think we would need a rally, you know, back over the 50 week moving average. And I would say we have to have like two to three weekly closes above the 50 week moving average for me to really start to consider the bull case. But for. And the other reason to hold some bitcoin is because when you have counter trend rallies, like if we do get a counter trend rally, let's say we get it to 100k right where the 50 week SMA is or 101k. If you all know bitcoin, you run the risk of like fomoing in on a Lower, high, right. By owning some, I'm like all right, well at least if it, if it continues to go up here, I'm not, I'm not completely sidelined. But I also, you know, I want to, I feel like it kind of helps calm the emotions, right? To not be all, not to not be like 100% deterministic about any one idea.
- [38:54]
Interviewer
When you're approaching the buying the dip in a bear market or in a downtrend, do you have specific targets in mind where you've already set bids? Are you kind of watching the market to see what it gives you?
- [39:07]
Ben Cowan
It's more of a time based approach, right? It's kind of like bitcoin. All the peaks. Listen, out of all the indicators that I have and that everyone has talked about, out of every single indicator that's been created, the winning strategy for bitcoin has always been buy it at the end of the midterm year, sell it in Q4 the post having year. If you just did that the last three cycles you would have made the most amount of money, right? Like if you bought it at the end of 2014 and then sold it in 2017 or Q4 2017 or the end of 2018, sold at the end of 2021, buy it at the end of 2022, sell it at the, you know, Q4, 2025, that's what makes the most amount of sense. I couldn't tell you what those prices were going to be like. I couldn't say the low will be 15k in 2022 or the high will be 126. But we can say is that there's a good chance the low will be in the fourth quarter and, and if that is the case then whatever the price is in Q4 like that is likely the low. I don't know what it's going to be but I would say I, I would say this. Price predictions are really, really hard because if you predict a price that is $1 too high, if you're doing sort of like a peak prediction, if it's $1 too high, everyone will hate you because they were waiting on that. If you predict it too low, people will sell and then they'll hate you because it continued to rally beyond it. So I think what's better to do, I think it's better to just try to figure out which way is the wind blowing, right. And right now I think the wind is blowing more in the bearish direction. But by Q4 I think those win will have sort of like the Winds of chain, they'll change and I think they'll start blowing the other direction. So I don't know exactly where the price will be. But I will say if we're recording this video, if we're recording a video in the summer or in October of 2026, I'll probably start to say like we've got, we'll probably be near low at that point.
- [41:01]
Interviewer
I tend to look at larger time frames like you. So I think like most people, the 50 and 200 Ma are really interesting on the weekly. Do you take into account lower time frames like the daily? Obviously we've just broken back above the 50 ma on the day daily. That happened actually in a lot of altcoin charts. Larger caps. Interestingly, I know I looked at Ethereum, Solana and XRP specifically. I didn't go much deeper than that. We have the 200 ma on the daily up around 106. Right. So listen, if we break 101, do you take a look at the 200 on the daily? Are you pretty much fixed on the larger timeframe for the bigger trend?
- [41:36]
Ben Cowan
Well, what's interesting is the 200 day, it's kind of funny because it could all end up just corresponding to each.
- [41:44]
Interviewer
Other in the same place by then.
- [41:45]
Ben Cowan
Yeah, yeah. Because if you look at all the prior bear markets like you can see that the bitcoin has historically also I showed you a chart where it rallied to the 50 week, but it's also rallied to the 200 day moving average as well in the last couple of bear markets.
- [41:59]
Interviewer
So the 50 weekly and the 200 daily.
- [42:02]
Ben Cowan
Right, exactly. And even in 2019 you can see that first rally, it actually went above it, but it was pretty short lived and then it went right back down below. And that's why I'm saying it needs multiple weekly closes up there for me to take it seriously. So yeah, like I think that you probably will see Bitcoin revisit the 200 day moving average this year. And you know, perhaps by the time we revisit it though, it'll correspond more to the 50 week moving average. Right. Because like earlier, like just a few Weeks ago the 200 day moving average was like 110k and now it's down to 106. And so you know, if you continue to just kind of extrapolate this, which you probably shouldn't because it is obviously dependent on price action, you know that that 200 day moving average by the end of February is probably going to be close to 100k. Right. So yeah, I mean you could have a scenario where we rally to the 200 day moving average and it corresponds also to the 50 week moving average and that ends up sort of marking a macro. A macro lower high is probably what would happen. But yeah, you're right, we did quite.
- [43:11]
Interviewer
Likely when I'm looking at the chart, that those two things align within two or three thousand bucks certainly.
- [43:16]
Ben Cowan
Right? Yeah, like they probably will align. And again, as we said before, normally after a three month downturn like we just had, we typically then have sort of a counter trend rally that lasts like, you know, a month or two. So it wouldn't like to have a counter trend rally back up. Wouldn't even be that surprising. Okay. I mean it would almost have to be sort of more of like the base case scenario. Like there could even be a scenario where we get close to it, drop and then go right back up. Like that's what actually happened in 2019 is where we like started to rally right here. We dropped and then just shot above it and then sold back off as. As we kind of continued to await fresh liquidity that just wasn't coming. So yeah, I think you're right. I think we will likely revisit those moving averages probably within the first quarter of the year, if not probably the first half of the year. If I had to guess.
- [44:07]
Interviewer
Okay, I know what makes you buy Bitcoin again? What makes you buy any Altcoin and how do you choose?
- [44:14]
Ben Cowan
Yeah, I mean, I think with something like Ethereum. I did buy Ethereum back in April and let me go to Ethereum. So I think for something like Ethereum I would want to, like, I don't really want to add right now. Like I bought here and then I also got a little bit a few months ago actually. But I don't really want to add any more right now just because like I feel like I already got a good entry and I. And if I do add some more, I want it to be in this sort of this regression band and. And maybe, maybe Ethereum actually ends up sweeping this low from June. Right. And so I think I would add there like if Ethereum goes back to its fair value logarithmic regression trend line, I think I would buy. So like right now, according to.
- [45:04]
Interviewer
Where's that at?
- [45:04]
Ben Cowan
Just for people who aren't $2000. $2000. So like my entry is around 1400, like 14 to 1500. But I don't think like I'm not gonna add right now. And one of the reasons I'm not adding is just because like while ethereum's holding up, okay, it's just bleeding to other things. Like if you look at, again, if you look at it against some of these metals, like even look at ethereum against gold, right? Like, this is a chart that's been putting in lower highs since 2021, you know, so like, it's not that it can't do well and if it's just that it keeps bleeding against other things, like, I mean, look at, against silver, Ethereum's at a lower price than it was in June of 2022. So I think part of it is like in order to, in order to really want to get interested in the altcoin market, in order to get interested in something like Ethereum, I have to stop seeing them bleed against like lower risk assets, right? Like, I would view gold and silver as lower risk assets than altcoins, just like I view bitcoin as a lower risk asset than an altcoin. I didn't buy altcoins for the most part from 2023 until through 2025 because they were bleeding against bitcoin. Right? I mean, I was just like, I'm just going to, I'll just stick with bitcoin. Now. What's the point of buying them when they're just bleeding to metals? The problem with alts is that like they just keep bleeding to lower risk assets, you know, so it's hard to, it's hard to want to take them on as like a large allocation of a portfolio when I feel like I can go buy something else that's less risky. Even against index funds. Right? Like if you look at alts against index funds, the funny thing is, even.
- [46:41]
Interviewer
If you're wrong, you're still going to make money.
- [46:44]
Host
Alts aren't going to just go up.
- [46:45]
Interviewer
When everything else is going down. So maybe you only get 30% instead of 50%. Okay, right?
- [46:51]
Ben Cowan
Yeah. Like, I mean, even if altcoins were to rally, like, even if they were to go up 50%, like, so what? Like my silver position has gone up more than that in the last.
- [47:01]
Interviewer
You don't have to exit perfectly because you know they're not going to stay there indefinitely or certainly not all of them.
- [47:06]
Ben Cowan
Right? So I don't. When altcoins stop bleeding against lower risk assets, I would then start to become more interested. But until then, I just think they're falling knives. For the most part. There's again, there's a select few that are doing okay. And like in 2023, it was Solana in 2024 we saw XRP doing well. In 2025 we saw Ethereum doing well. And now in 2026 we've started to see some of those privacy coins. I mean starting at the end of last year, I mean even Monero just put on a new all time high. So it's not that altcoins can't put in all time highs, it's just that most of them are bleeding to lower risk assets. And so for me it's easier to stick to say like Bitcoin and Ethereum, gold, silver and then a few of the other metals, low expense ratio index funds and then a few stocks that I have long term conviction in and then just sleep easy at night.
- [48:01]
Interviewer
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense to me. I think for even the most deeply entrenched crypto natives are having trouble picking those narratives fast enough to actually make money on them. There's certainly people who made money on zcash and it went crazy or maybe jumped in when it was up 2x and did well. But I would argue that a, most of them don't know what to do with that position now.
- [48:23]
Ben Cowan
Right.
- [48:24]
Interviewer
You have the PTSD of watching all of your profits bleed away and seeing every narrative have a shelf life. But I would say that most people are afraid to buy or are too late because the narratives shift even faster than they did in the past. So it's just a really hard market even for those who spend 24, seven, you know, 365.
- [48:46]
Ben Cowan
Well, there's also a lot of like hindsight bias where like you can look at an altcoin market and go back and retroactively find all the altcoins that did really well. But what about like the dozens that many people bought that just went to the zero? Right. Like it's hard to know ahead of time which of the altcoins are going to be those ones that actually outperform. And so if like most people can't pick the right ones and I would argue that I'm not even that great at picking the right. I mean I, the the only one I really got interested in this cycle Ethereum back in April. But like a lot of the times like I just, I don't even want to be bothered to try to figure out like which alt is going to outperform if I think bitcoin dominance is just in an uptrend.
- [49:27]
Host
Right.
- [49:27]
Ben Cowan
Like I, it's, it's just too much work and then the chances of being right and outperforming bitcoin just don't really Seem that high. Like a lot of people were under the illusion that bitcoin underperforms in bull markets. Right. And so they were like, well why would you ever buy bitcoin if bitcoin always underperforms everything else? Well, we just got a bull market where that's not what happened. Right. Bitcoin outperformed most everything else. And now we kind of, people understand like, okay, we don't always, you don't always have the high risk stuff outperform. There are market cycles where the higher risk stuff just bleeds.
- [50:02]
Interviewer
That makes a lot of sense. So do you see a world where you ever go down into the smaller altcoins or will it always just be bitcoin in the top? Sort of 25, maybe 50 as you said that, by the way, that's where I'm generally focused. Yeah, I used to be very interested in catching the next thing in a narrative that maybe was the 100x. Now I just kind of dollar cost average into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, the latter two much smaller than other with the intention of getting them into bitcoin.
- [50:31]
Ben Cowan
Right. I mean you could argue one of the best use cases of altcoins is increasing your bitcoin position. I think. Yeah, like I, there are scenarios. I mean I bought Ethereum in April so it's not like I'm completely closed off. I think that if, let's say if, if it's like late 2026 and Bitcoin is trading at like 60k, 70k or something like that and altcoins are absolutely annihilated, maybe I'll take on a few, like a few investments in, in some of them. But I, I just don't really feel like this entire cycle there was ever a great opportunity to bet on the collective altcoin market relative to the other things that we're moving next cycle that might change because next cycle will likely have lower interest rates like this. I think one of the reasons some of the high risk stuff didn't do well in crypto is because, I mean, first of all a lot of it was just a scam. But other reasons include, I mean, if we're being honest. Right. But other reasons include the fact that interest rates were really high. Right. Interest rates were high, quantitative tightening was going on the entire cycle. Next cycle will probably be in QE and lower interest rates. So maybe, maybe next cycle I would be more interested in the altcoin market, but by next cycle maybe no one else. Yeah, I was like next cycle maybe no one else will care about all coins.
- [51:55]
Interviewer
Yeah, totally, man. I think we covered it all. That was really great. I love to just kind of set the table with you and figure out where you're at because it helps me in my sort of own analysis and to keep me calm.
- [52:09]
Ben Cowan
Yeah. And look, I could be wrong. I mean, I absolutely could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. So just keep that in mind. But that's where I'm sitting right now.
- [52:17]
Interviewer
I think it's very reasonable and considered take, which is not usually what we.
- [52:22]
Ben Cowan
Get from people in the crypto market.
- [52:24]
Interviewer
It has to go here by this time or the world's ending. That seems to be more the hyperbolic takes. You must laugh when you see all these huge end of year predictions throughout the back half of last year, even.
- [52:38]
Ben Cowan
In 2025, I mean, tons of well established banks had all these crazy price predictions. None of them panned out. You know, I mean, it just goes to show you why price predictions are essentially worthless because no one actually knows what's going to happen in the market.
- [52:53]
Interviewer
Right.
- [52:53]
Ben Cowan
Like no one knows. It's not like in March 2020 when Bitcoin was sitting at like 8 or 9k. I remember waking up the next morning and it was like four, like 3,800 and I like, I literally didn't even believe it. Like, I'm like, there's no way that like I went to sleep and it was like 100% higher than where it is right now. There's no actual way. Like I thought TradingView was glitching out or something, you know, So I mean, there's a reality of like no one can actually know where the market's going to go. We all just try to do the best we can.
- [53:21]
Interviewer
Absolutely. Well, appreciate you staying strong on your thesis and you've definitely had one of the better crystal balls so far.
- [53:29]
Ben Cowan
Well, thanks for having me. Pleasure to be here, as always.
- [53:31]
Interviewer
Thanks so much, Ben.