Podcast Summary: "Bitcoin Is In A Bear Market & This Is Why It Feels Different"

Podcast: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Ben Cowen
Date: January 18, 2026

Overview

This episode dives deep into the current state of the Bitcoin and crypto markets, drawing parallels with past cycles—especially 2019—and examining why this bear market feels so different. With no euphoric blow-off top, weak retail participation, and ongoing weakness in altcoins, Ben Cowen offers a data-driven, rational analysis, discussing factors like liquidity, macroeconomic cycles, and the relentless outperformance of lower-risk assets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Unique Nature of the Current Bear Market

• No Euphoria, Topped on Apathy

  • Unlike classic bull market peaks, this cycle lacked retail FOMO, altcoin mania, and the usual euphoric signals.
  • Ben Cowen (03:36):

    "You could argue that if the top is in, we actually topped on apathy rather than euphoria... There wasn't really a rotation into altcoins. There was not that euphoric feeling."

• Lower Drawdown, Milder Bear Market

  • Historically, Bitcoin would experience a rapid 50%+ drawdown after a euphoric top. This cycle is holding up better, with declines more muted.
  • Ben Cowen (04:50):

    "Normally at this point we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But I think the reason is because we didn't really have a lot of retail coming in and fomoing in at the top."

• Macro & 2019 Parallels

  • The current market structure closely resembles the mid-cycle top of 2019: slow bleed, low retail interest, and action largely determined by macro liquidity.
  • Topping occurred about 2 months before the Fed's balance sheet began expanding—a pattern echoing 2019.
  • Ben Cowen (07:42):

    "If you overlay [the Fed's balance sheet], you can see that the balance sheet started to go up in December. In 2019, you'll notice the top occurred a month or two before... a lot of similarities."

2. Altcoins, Metals, and Rotating Narratives

• Altcoin Underperformance

  • Most altcoins are closer to their 2022 lows than 2021 highs; many are even underperforming silver and gold.
  • Ben Cowen (11:02):

    "Altcoins went down as bitcoin went down, but they actually went up against bitcoin at some point during that downtrend, just because bitcoin was dropping quicker... but now, most are closer to their 2022 lows."

• The "Hot Ball of Money" Shifted to Metals

  • Investors, abandoning hopes for an alt season, have moved into metals as a safer speculative haven.
  • Ben Cowen (13:42):

    "I think we're seeing sort of like a regime shift... People thought altcoins were going to rally. But in reality, the bitcoin bull market was more of a defensive posturing... Now a lot of people have given up."

• Bitcoin as the Lowest Risk Crypto

  • Rather than seeking the next big alt, investors have rotated from alts to bitcoin, and now even into metals, echoing behavior from previous cycles.
  • Ben Cowen (14:54):

    "People basically selling alts, buying bitcoin, and then new people buying bitcoin through the ETFs... that was the entire bull market. There was not a whole lot of interest in alts."

3. Macro & Monetary Policy: The Real Drivers

• Liquidity Is King

  • Ben stresses that only significant weakening in the S&P 500 (stocks) will force the Fed's hand, potentially reigniting a broad crypto bull market.
  • Ben Cowen (21:18):

    "I don't think it's going to change until the S&P starts showing weakness... when the Fed turned on the money printers, that's when the crypto markets got back in business."

• Stubborn Stock Markets, Delayed Crypto Revival

  • The stock market continues to make all-time highs, so there's no urgency for the Fed to add liquidity.
  • Ben Cowen (22:58):

    "There's still a 60% chance the Fed holds rates constant until Powell is no longer chair... that's going to continue to remain a headwind for the crypto markets."

• Risk-On vs. Risk-Off

  • Stocks remain in a risk-on environment, lifted by passive inflows and 401ks. Crypto, far more sensitive to liquidity cycles, sits deeper on the risk curve.
  • Ben Cowen (24:23):

    "Stocks have a lot more passive flows... Crypto is further up the risk curve, it reacts quicker and is more tied to liquidity than the stock market."

4. Market Structure, Technicals & Historical Patterns

• Counter-Trend Rallies vs. New Highs

  • Bitcoin could see substantial “lower high” rallies (to 100–101k), but these are likely not a sign of new sustained bull markets—more like technical retracements.
  • Ben Cowen (27:43):

    "I'm not against bitcoin going back up to 100K... But you have to be open-minded to that being a lower high."

• Moving Averages as Structural Markers

  • Historically, after losing the 50-week moving average, Bitcoin visits the 100 and then 200-week MA—an expected move in the coming months.
  • Ben Cowen (32:47):

    "...the 200 week... it's approaching 58K. So I mean, I think there's a good chance bitcoin will tag the 200 week moving average within the next year."

• Time, Not Just Price, Targets the Bottom

  • Ben emphasizes timing cycles (end of midterm year, post-halving Q4 periods) over specific price predictions.
  • Ben Cowen (39:06):

    "The winning strategy for bitcoin has always been buy at the end of the midterm year, sell in Q4 the post-halving year... Price predictions are really, really hard."

5. Strategies, Diversification & Altcoin Selection

• Diversification vs. Concentration

  • Most people build wealth with diversified portfolios—not through high-conviction, high-risk bets on small caps or altcoins.
  • Ben Cowen (35:18):

    "The way for most people to have a better chance of getting wealthy is... a well diversified portfolio that just generally trends up with time..."

• When to Buy Alts & Criteria

  • Ben looks for signs that alts have stopped bleeding against lower-risk assets before allocation.
  • Ben Cowen (47:05):

    "When altcoins stop bleeding against lower risk assets, I would then start to become more interested. But until then, they're falling knives for the most part..."

• Narrative Rotations Are Fast & Unreliable

  • It's increasingly difficult to catch winning altcoin narratives early; even full-time traders struggle.
  • Ben Cowen (48:45):

    "There's a lot of hindsight bias... It's hard to know ahead of time which of the altcoins are going to be those ones that actually outperform. If I think bitcoin dominance is in an uptrend, it's just too much work..."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Euphoria vs. Apathy Tops
  • "We topped on apathy rather than euphoria." — Ben Cowen (03:36)
• On Price Predictions
  • "Price predictions are essentially worthless because no one actually knows what's going to happen in the market." — Ben Cowen (52:38)
• The Dilemma of Rooting for Market Downturns
  • "If you own a lot of index funds like I do... do I root for the stock market to drop so the Fed comes in and provides liquidity? But if that happens, my stock portfolio goes down..." — Ben Cowen (21:26)
• On Diversification
  • "I would never want my entire net worth on one asset... by being diversified, I can sleep better at night." — Ben Cowen (36:32)
• Investment Wisdom
  • "Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to just buy the lowest risk asset in the asset class. And sometimes that's the one that just does the best." — Ben Cowen (33:59)

Important Timestamps

• 00:00-03:36: Overview; why this cycle’s “top” is unique; lack of retail/alt season/euphoria.
• 03:36-08:57: Comparing to 2019, muted drawdowns, apathy, structural overlays with macro.
• 13:23-16:31: Altcoin market benchmarks, money moving to metals, macro context.
• 19:03-24:23: Will the next crypto bull market be universal? Impacts of monetary policy.
• 27:08-29:40: Likelihood and structure of counter-trend rallies, moving average history.
• 32:01-33:59: Where/when could the market bottom? Strategy around major moving averages.
• 35:18-38:54: Diversification, buying dips, not being deterministic, emotional discipline.
• 41:36-43:15: Weekly and daily moving averages, when to take signals seriously.
• 44:13-47:05: Criteria for altcoin allocation, bleeding vs. lower-risk assets.
• 47:05-50:02: Futility of altcoin “narrative” chasing, why most fail.
• 50:31-51:55: On larger or smaller altcoin bets, outlook for next cycle.
• 52:38-53:20: On predictions and market unpredictability.

Conclusion

Ben Cowen’s analysis suggests the current Bitcoin bear market is more a slow, apathetic bleed than a panic-driven collapse. Liquidity and macroeconomic shifts, rather than crypto-specific narratives, will dictate the next major moves—even if counter-trend rallies provide hope along the way. Caution, realism, and broad diversification—rather than chasing elusive altcoin gains—emerge as the principal investing themes for this phase.

Final Thought:
"Price predictions are essentially worthless because no one actually knows what's going to happen in the market." — Ben Cowen (52:38)

This rational, data-driven perspective helps investors stay calm, focused, and avoids the emotional traps that come with hype cycles, FOMO, and wishful thinking.