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Has bitcoin bottom that is the burning question that everybody on crypto Twitter is asking. Now, I told you in February that I believe that bitcoin had bottomed when it hit around 60,000 or was in the process of bottoming. And my conviction in that has only grown. I've done a number of shows on this very topic and figured I would dive right back in today on Friday and tell you why I still think bitcoin is bottoming. Let's go. Let's do. What if you can short bitcoin without touching a perp. Today's video is sponsored by Kalshi. On Kalshi, you trade which way bitcoin's headed, up or down, and short it as easily as you go long. As of June 16, Bitcoin's around $66,000 and Kalshi traders give it a 50% chance of dropping below $50,000 this year. And you can watch those odds move in real time. It's not just price. You can trade whether a crypto bill clears Congress or how a regulatory decision plays out. Pick a side, yes or no, and get paid if you're right. No leverage, no liquidations, just a clean yes or no. Sign up with code WOAS. Trade $10 and Kalshi gives you $10. And if leverage is more your thing, Kalshi's got regulated perps too. Either way, it's fully regulated. Head to Kalshi and use code woas. Trading carries risks. Perps use leverage so you can be liquidated. Not financial advice offers subject to Kalshi's terms. Good morning everybody. Happy Friday. Welcome to the anti fiat social club of which we are all members. Now, there's been a burning, burning question in the minds of everybody. It's been hotly debated. It's on mainstream media talking about four year cycles and whether bitcoin is bottomed or whether we're going to 10,000. As Mike McGlone says, Man, you know, it's interesting. People can view the same market through a completely different lens. They can see the same data and have a completely different interpretation of, of exactly what that data means. Most things that a lot of people are pointing to as reasons for bitcoin and crypto to continue down massively, I see as potential bottom signals. Now, I don't want to bring up a bunch of charts because the technical argument I've made repeatedly, but I'll just give you the greatest hits, right? Bitcoin oversold on the weekly for only the fourth time in history. Every one of those has been the bottom is the second time in history we've had oversold RSI on the weekly and bullish diversions. The last one was the FTX bottom. We're trading back above the weekly 200ma after breaking below it for one week, something we've seen at bottoms in the past. We tapped the 50 ma on the monthly, which has historically been near a bottom, and this month bounced exactly off of it almost to the dollar. So listen, there's a lot of reasons to technically believe we could go lower. We haven't flipped key resistance back to support. I understand the bearish case. I agree we've been in a bear market, Tom. But signs we've seen in the past that were early for a likely bottom we are starting to see again now. One of my favorites here, and I brought up the wrong screen, as is tradition, Fear and Greed index, right. So listen, it's, it's 29, 30, 50, doesn't matter any given day, we're somewhere in the 20s. What's more important though is when you zoom down and you look at this kind of one year trend, this was the longest period we've ever, ever spent in fear and extreme fear in history. So if you talk about retail sentiment and where it's at, are people usually right when they're extremely fearful, is that usually a top signal or a bottom signal? Of course it's a bottom signal and we still remain in fear to this day. So historically, when we see long, extended periods of extreme fear or fear, those are more bottom signals than top signals. Take a look at hash rate. Right? I mean this has massively rolled over. We've never actually seen it ro this hard. A lot of that, I'll get into it later, is because bitcoin miners are capitulating and moving over and becoming AI data centers because it's more profitable. We'll talk about that a little more. But we have hash rate massively dropping here alongside bitcoin price. That is usually a signal that we are approaching a bottom. Now this is one of my favorites here from Frank Crypto, Bear Market Roundup, Bankruptcies and Wind Downs, Movement Labs, Storj, Bitmart, Bitmex, Zapper, Ascendex, that's three exchanges alone being Ascendex, Bitmart and Bitmex that have capitulated layoffs, Bybit 30%, Gemini 30%, Coinbase 700 rolls. Every single one of these major companies laying people off, which is something that we've seen at the bottom of every single. Say it with me again, you've seen it at the Bottom of every other bear market, right? So listen, history doesn't always repeat, but it certainly rhymes. We didn't need massive fraud and asshats like SBF and Alex Mashinsky and Steve Ehrlich from Voyager, who can't understand why he's not in jail for stealing my money. But all of these guys, of course, caused this massage, fraud and contagion in the last market that made headlines. Well, this is a quieter capitulation this time. But when exchanges that used to be the biggest on the block, like Bitmex, are quietly going out of business doing only a few hundred thousand dollars in volume a day, it's usually a signal of the bottom, not a signal of the top, right? This doesn't happen in a raging bull market. It doesn't even happen when bitcoin first bottoms. It happens much like with retail, when you bottom and then you stay there for a while, right? This is that time based on capitulation, duration, risk that I've talked about repeatedly. But when companies start firing people and entirely going out of business, it's not usually a sign that we're near a top. And even if we drop lower, it's a sign that we are much closer, generally to a bottom than we are, obviously, to a top. Now, if you've listened to me over the years, I've been wrong about a lot of things. But one of them that I got right, I got it right early, and I was very vocal about it in the face of extreme pushback, was that bitcoin treasury companies were a horrible idea, were the next bubble and would capitulate. This is just one example, right? This was news earlier this week. Bitcoin treasury firm Satsuma to liquidate bitcoin return cash. This happened to Saquons. It happened to them. Nakamoto's in trouble. 21. Obviously, Jack Muller stepped down as CEO. We don't know what the future is here, but we had this trend right at the, you know, in a rising bull market last year, where it became in vogue to try to be Michael Saylor. You start a bitcoin treasury company, you reverse merge spac, you know, find some interesting way to take a defunct pharmaceutical company and turn it into a bitcoin treasury company. Raise a bunch of money, your Stock goes up 100 billion times, and you buy a whole bunch of bitcoin, and then you're going to use that premium to buy more. But the problem was the premium collapsed and all of them top blasted. Buying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana at the very top of the market with no plan to ever do it again. This was the dumbest thing I've seen in a long time, and I screamed about it repeatedly and I got pitched, but invest in this treasury company. Do this. I didn't listen because it was dumb and it was obviously done right. And the problem is now they're all capitulating, but people now are calling that a systemic risk. The risk's already gone. They're dead. They're selling, they're liquidating. The little that they have or have already done that, and they have no plan. They're going to disappear. There may be a consolidation, maybe someone will buy their bitcoin off their balance sheet, but this is no longer a major problem for the market. So this was one of the biggest fears. And this leads to kind of a theme that you're going to see now across my bottom thesis, which is that every supposed buyer of last resort became a forced seller already, and bitcoin is still totally fine. Right? Treasury companies, we're going to get into sailors selling for the first time, miners selling, ETF selling. All of these were supposed to be our big buyers that we're going to put in the floor. They've all become forced sellers and we're still here. So treasury companies, effectively not a narrative anymore. I mean, this is obviously, we got strategy over here. I don't think I need to tell you about this piece of history. Sold 32 bitcoin, then a few weeks ago, sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million. So the prevailing narrative at the time was we couldn't possibly be near a bottom because Michael Saylor had to be liquidated. He was going to be a forced seller of 800,000 bitcoin, where mathematically there's no world where that happens unless bitcoin goes down massively and stays there for a really, really, really long time, like years, right? So there's plenty of time until that happens, even if it does, for them to slowly sell or to manage it. But since then, we've seen him become a rational actor. He's raising cash, he sold some bitcoin, he's no longer buying bitcoin. The market can no longer price in the fact that Michael Saylor, as the narrative was, is the only buyer in the market, the last buyer, you know, buyer of last resort. And bitcoin went up after he sold bitcoin. So this was arguably the biggest fud and fear in the market, was him becoming a for seller. And he's shown that's just not going to happen. And more importantly, he's shown he can't really even buy right now. And that's also not affecting the price. To me, that's more of a bottom sale. You may remember in the last cycle, Michael Saylor sold bitcoin. People tend to conveniently forget that strategy. Sold in the 15 thousands, the dead bottom of the market. The dead bottom was when Michael Saylor chose to sell last time. Well, tax loss harvesting, you know, it's the dividends by a different name. But he sold at the bottom of the market. So tell me, do you think that's more of a top signal or a continuation of a bear market signal or a bottoming signal? Listen, I'm not saying bitcoin can't go down. Of course it can. I think we're bottoming. Tom Lee's down like $11 billion last I checked. Top signal or bottom signal. Right. Bit miner and these guys to their credit, like Saylor, he's not buying anymore. Bit mine still buying ether up to almost 5%. Some of these actually had a plan, were able to continue to raise money and able to continue participating, unlike their treasury brethren who top blasted and get paid really high salaries, do nothing. Another big one here. Bitcoin price faces AI challenge as Mara CEO backs data centers over mining. So this was an interview recently with Fred Thiel. We had news about Core Scientific doing a massive deal with AMD this week. It's very clear. Bitcoin miners, publicly traded bitcoin miners, the darlings of a previous bull market, are no longer bitcoin miners. They're AI data centers that sometimes sell, that sometimes mine bitcoin and by the way, they sell it, right? So these were also, you gotta remember, Marathon Mara, they were a bitcoin treasury company. When the treasury company thing was happening, they stopped selling. They raised convertible notes to buy more bitcoin. What have they done recently? Sell all of it, liquidate and use that money to build AI infrastructure in their data centers. So the miners that were some of the buyers of Last Resort capitulated. They've already sold massive amounts of bitcoin, right? And bitcoin's still alive last time I checked. So the miners always have been one of the major kind of floor supporters. They're gone and we're fine. Once again, every supposed buyer of Last Resort became a forced seller. Bitcoin, it did not die. I know it's crazy, but it did not die. Now this is a dated article, but it shows the trend because one of the biggest narratives of who was going to keep buying? Our bitcoin was retail through spot ETFs. It was back in June. But you know, Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerating. We had this massive ETF, ETF capitulation. Of course in the last week or two it started to slowly reverse. But billions and billions of dollars, relentless selling of ETFs for many months here while bitcoin still was ranging sort of in the high 50s to the mid-60s and a little bit higher capitulation and time based capitulation. Because bitcoin had already visited 60,000 in February. These people just got bored. They saw greener pastures in AI and microchips and memory and decided they needed to move their money to where the hot ball was flying. Nothing really fundamentally happened. You could argue that bitcoin actually fundamentally is in the best place it's ever been, right? We have some sort of, you know, we have a positive legislative and regulatory environment. It's on every ticker, on every screen. Everybody knows what bitcoin is now. Nothing bad happened. But those people sell because people capitulate eventually with time. Time based capitulation. When we bought them in February, I didn't say we were going to go back up to a new time high. I said we're going to probably go sideways for a really long time until everyone gives up. I said six to nine months. It's July, right? This could keep going for a while. If you're a four year cycle believer, you think we're going to have October and then finally you want to know who did buy? The people who dumped on us the entire way down from $126,000 all the way down to the 60s, we had the biggest whales. The guys who are diamond handed were never going to sell, looking in their wallet and going, I'm a fucking billionaire, I'm out of here, dude. Well, a lot of those people, they're back and they were the ones buying this record bleed of ETFs. Bitcoin whales buying again in the 60,000 relentlessly wallets, adding, that's the trend that we've seen. So do you think that the smart money, the whales, the big money that sold the top, do you think they're selling the bottom? I think they are more than likely here buying the bottom. I said I could be totally wrong. It's a thing, right? We can all be totally wrong. But I prefer to remove the emotions and comments like it has to do this because it did it in the past or this is what's coming because Saylor has to do this or because ETFs have to do that or whales have to do that. Those are emotional comments. I think when you look at enough metrics and you've been here before and you felt the pain of past cycles, which we all have, you know that actually this hasn't been that bad relative to those. And the sentiment is just as bad. There's people who say this is the worst bear market ever. It's horrible. They can't imagine, they can't believe what we're experiencing. Do you remember ftx? Do you remember Voyager and Block by and Celsius? We were fighting for the very soul of this industry. We had a SEC in a White House that was literally prosecuting everyone. We didn't think crypto would exist in the United States. There was a real chance that they could have crushed us. But they failed and they'll fail this time. Regardless of whether Bitcoin goes down into the 50s again, doesn't really matter to me. Everything I can see is that we are in the process of bottoming, that all the people we thought would be buying have sold or have been forced to sell and we're still here. They don't call Bitcoin the honey badger for nothing. I still believe that we are likely bottoming. I'll see you guys back here on Monday. Thanks for tuning in. Today's video is sponsored by Securitize. You've heard the word tokenization. Putting assets like funds, bonds, treasuries and stocks on chain. Securitize is the regulated infrastructure the biggest names in finance build on. They're the tokenization partner for Block. Blackrock's on chain. Treasury Fund BIDL working with New York Stock Exchange, Vaneck, Hamilton Lane and Apollo. SEC regulated entities. Nearly nine years running, most money still moves through slow decades old systems. 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