← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
A
Depending on what indicator you use. Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market that is with a break and close below the 50 ma on the weekly chart has been a bear market indicator for 15 years with no exceptions. But maybe this time is different. Of course it could be a fake out, but we could be entering a much, much deeper correction. Of course we have James, Mike and Dave to unpack all of that and everything that's happening in the macro, including a whole lot of insiders cashing out on their huge tech positions. We've got a lot to talk about today on macro Monday. Let's go, let's do.
- [00:54]
B
Let's dope. Oh we don't.
- [01:05]
C
Scott, you're on mute.
- [01:06]
A
You guys hear me? I was trying to do something. Stream yard is having a lot of glitching lately. We couldn't end the stream the other day. Anyways, welcome to the bear market. Dave, Mike, James and and Mike, you, you went all the way in yesterday with this 1. Black Monday November 17, 2025 Starting Sunday in cryptos we definitely had a bit of a black Sunday, although it was just kind of a black few weeks. But what do you got for us here? You really think that we're going to see it all come crashing down today?
- [01:38]
D
I certainly hope not, but it's the term I learned from you. I love that word Spidey senses and sometimes I feel it's my due. That's not the kind of thing I've ever put out. But when you sense major shifts in market and it's my duty to warn people and so we did see the collapse in cryptos to again on Sunday and they bounce. Bitcoin just dropped to unchanged in the year. Right now it's hovering around unchanged in the year. Our mark is right, right below 94,000 on Bloomberg. And let's just talk about what's happened this morning. The S&P 500 was up a percent for a while this morning. Now it's down to 3, 10, 2, 10% and we've had. It's just a perfect storm set up for some post inflation deflation or volatility into the end of the year. First of all the key things are now the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index ended down 10% on, on the year after being up 30%. So all that's kind of tilting lower. The space that was supposed to go up is going down. That's where markets really shift and that's happening in the environment with stock market volatility absolutely buried. You know, give 120 day volatility running around 10%. If we end the year here, it'll be the lowest since like 2017. That's kind of a rare thing. So I'm worried that now that we've had this major almost to almost two month period of no data where most people who really act aren't not just like bots and algorithms who trade cryptos, that's just more automatic waiting for this data to move. And everything's starting to tilt negative now. It's early certainly cryptos are showing problems and this is happening with stock market volatility very low, gold going parabolic and it's towards the end of the year. It's where okay you just look at the average for this year. The average price of Bitcoin is 103,000. So anybody who's bought it on averages here is losing money. Are you going to buy? Are the dip buyers going to win or people are going to be more hitting stops. I'm more sitting towards the ladder and I'm fearful if we just get a, let's say maybe a 5% drop in the stock market, still a great year, up 10%. That means things like copper have a big problem, should go lower. Crude oil is already showing the deflation. Crypto's already showing the problem. Bond yields have been declining. Yes, they've picked up since the first start Fed. So I'm really worried as we get towards the end of the year of a decent. I hate to say the word crash but mean reversion can be a crash. 1987 was a mean reversion bent and the stock market ended up 2% that year. So that's what I think is going to happen. I need to be dissuaded from then suspect Dave and James and you might help me. But right now we have a bear market I think is accelerating in cryptos and I think the problem is the dominoes are going to follow.
- [04:06]
A
Yeah, I think since we have the title here, Bitcoin officially enters bear market. We have a lot of takes on what a bear market means. Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise was going viral this weekend for saying he thinks we've basically been in a bear market for six months on bitcoin. I mean you take a look at the weekly chart, there's that break below the 50 ma on the weekly. Like I said, it's never closed below and not gone down and tested the 200 which is rising but at 55 right now. Not saying that will happen. This time could be different but this time has to be different at this point. And you could argue going back, I mean, this is, this time last year, bitcoin was the exact same price. We're down now in 2025 calendar year, if that is meaningful. But, and Mike, I think I asked you this on Market Mavericks along those way, people love to say that we're correlated, but gold's way up and stocks are way up and bitcoin's actually flat with some volatility up and down. So looks wildly uncorrelated to me if we're talking about a few percent off the highs of gold and stocks. And here we are with bitcoin completely flat or down.
- [05:06]
D
Right. Yeah. So it's what happens towards the end of the year. And obviously guilty was wrong was early. But I got that sense that gold was the place to be last year and now the same signals I was similar. You know, it's just the things you get. We've been in the markets for a long time. You sense extremes and see them. I get the same thing in gold now. That's why I think everything is just bad. That's why I look over to good old Treasuries is. Yeah, the one I've been most wrong on. But if we just get some normal, just a 5% back up in the stock market, the bottom is it's completely the in and or burden has to go up. Now I even look at that in things like copper and crude oil and natural gas and, and bond yields. The stock market asks and certainly cryptos, it has to go up or we're going to just get this continued tilt down. And that's why, you know, this week and next week as we get into the holiday, I just remember having P's and L's that would have major flips this time of year. And I used to have hair too. I just. Sometimes it can get kind of nasty.
- [06:00]
B
So the danger of using 3, 4, 5 data points when trying to make a statistical analysis is not about. This time is different. This time is different is when you have something that has hundreds or thousands of data points and expected to be different the next time. So I'm sorry, but you know, there's not. And look, I've tested every one of these technical signals, you know, over 10 years of running prop trading, you know, prop trading on the quantitative side and not a single one of them has statistical significance. Yes, they are guideposts in terms of human behaviors and that's what you're seeing. But you have to understand, I mean, you know, we keep focusing on Bitcoin but if you want to look at the person and everyone's saying that Sailor should be panicking. And if, you know, we watched Grant's interview with Sailor, he looked like the opposite of panicking. I don't think he gives a F and thinks, you know, he has the assets. You either you believe it or you don't. And I'm gonna. And that's going to be a really interesting that either you believe adoption will continue to accelerate. And by the way, outside of price, the metrics do show that, so that's okay.
- [07:08]
A
For the record, quickly, not to interrupt you, Dave, but I want to point out that last week there was legitimate FUD going around Twitter that Michael Saylor and Strategy were selling because some wallets had moved, honestly. And that actually went viral and he bought 835 million more while that was.
- [07:21]
B
So here' so here's the deal. If the c, you know, Carolyn fam is going to need to s the CFTC on this because honestly, that is, if that was done in the stock market, I guarantee you that whoever did it would be up for and looked at for manipulation. And I think that that was true. And there's a lot been a lot of that. It's accelerated and generally FUD accelerates towards the bottom, but not the apex, you know, V bottom, you know, not the pico bottom, as you might. Might want to call it. But you see an acceleration of FUD as bottoms are happening. It always happen. Talk about that later. But I do want to make the point that if there's one human being who should have sweat on his brow, it's Tom Lee. Because Bitcoin is still, you know, middle of its range from its bounce from the tariff tantrum to now, Ether is below that level.
- [08:12]
A
I don't think Tom cares.
- [08:14]
B
Well, whatever. I mean, you know, I'm just saying. Well, then his investors should care because.
- [08:18]
A
It was either last week, like 10 days ago, he was calling for 9,000 to 12,000 or 8,000 to 10,000,000 ETH.
- [08:25]
B
By New Year's, I mean the ethereum, the, the bottom, I guess. Ethereum, that's 22.
- [08:33]
C
Didn't we have.
- [08:34]
B
I'm wrong. Bottom of the tower tantrum was 1600. So it's done a 50% retracement because it went from 1600 to 4600. And now it's, it's just above, you know, 3100. So it's, it's down a significant amount. And, you know, it's. If you look, if you look at, at what people consider levels. If it, if it's fails 3,000. You know, the question is what's going on there? And, and if, and if you think ether is bad, look at the. Then you go start going down into. To more and more into the altcoin season and you see absolute cataclysms. You see things that happen in crypto winters, right?
- [09:09]
A
Never. There was only a bear market there and it's been there for. Since.
- [09:12]
B
That is correct. So, so Galaxy, you know, Bloomberg crypto index, which is a little bit old in it and long in the tooth in its construction, but still when you look at it, you're talking about most of the components are undeniably in a bear market. Have been in a bear market with a couple of blips for most of 25. You had the rip in ether and that you know, from a very specific liquidity drive. And so you see that. But that's not really the point. The point here is the fear, the fud, the selling is crescendoed and we know that that's true. The other point, and it's a very simple one and I titled my lip my relight of this dream, you know, buying when they're crying. I mean this is a crying. But on the other hand, if you look at what's happened with the stock market, I agree with Mike. I mean one of the things I always look at is insider selling. And insider selling in the stock market is extremely hot. The difference is people are still buying stock. So the insiders are selling and there's retail that they can dump on. In Bitcoin, the OGs were selling and you could claim that they're insiders, although I think in there it's more of a political and or lifestyle shift. And it eventually ran out. The demand was overwhelmed not by a lot, but by a little. And that's why it broke below a hundred thousand. That's why it's kind of sitting in this very tight range over the last few days. Because it's really a question of even. Even James's partner came out and made a comment that he's raising cash and we don't know if he's selling bitcoin to get to his cash. I have no idea. But when you start seeing people like the big print Larry saying that that's definitely closer to a bottom than the top as well. That's, that's, that, that, that's that old word capitulation coming in. Now honestly, it's always makes sense to have cash if you're in your trading firm because you always want to look for the extreme opportunities to goose your performance. But that's a different story. Anyway, I'd love to hear James's thought on that. But before we leave and you didn't do the morning meeting I am really curious about what you guys are looking at in Japan because Japan had two things going on. We have a massive stimulus package announced. Not surprising but at the same time we're ticking levels on dollar yen and JGBs that should be panicking the carry trade folks. People who are borrowing in yen in order to fund their their trades elsewhere. I'm curious. I mean I haven't heard the word carry trade over the weekend and I'm looking at the numbers and it seems strange to me. So what, what, what are you guys thinking about that?
- [11:55]
D
Let's go to James first and I can reiterate because I think it's James turn.
- [12:00]
C
Well, I mean look, I'll tell you what Mike, what, what did, what did they say in the morning meeting and then because. Because that kind of frames up everything that we're looking at this morning.
- [12:13]
D
Okay so I'll start with Dave. Nailed it. Our our FX strategy Audrey Shield freedom focused only on the yen. Point out the path of the resistance is further weakening the yen Point out the macro policies favor weaken the yen analysis flare up in China. So she's pointing out that might be might see more weakening in the yen which obviously means more trade. So Ana pointed out that payrolls we're going to get the September number She thinks it might see 54k but it's edging towards 4.4% unemployment. The key thing she pointed out is small business estimates have been quite were improving in September. She said the pure home based forecast might actually be boosting up a little bit and she says the chances from this number to make the Fed lead towards an ease which is all tilting now to less than 50% is unlikely from this report. And then she dug into that. We're going to see the FOMC minutes and from the last meeting where Powell turned Hawkins she fully expects it. You're going to see several officials backing him up and some actually turning towards tightening. And she gave the example of looking back at some of Those minutes in 1995 we had similar situation. Greenspan tilted the bias towards easing partly because he saw the pretty significant productivity improvement nailed to him. She doesn't expect Powell to do that. And then just from Ira Jersey our FX I'm sorry our interest rate strategies point out the markets the market expecting the Fed to cut at a slower pace. And he disagrees. Right now it's less than 50% for December. He thinks it's too low. The front end bit of a tightness in funding markets which thinks is part of the reason when we stop the QE and he pointed out best since said it's going to take a long while to increase coupon issuance. But he does fully expect that the Fed will be cutting at a greater pace than what's currently priced in. He says we're not priced for a full 25 full cut until March at the moment. And then our equity strategies point out there's still quite bullish trends and things like that in equities. That was Michael Casper.
- [14:11]
C
Interesting. So we're not going to get the unemployment rate right? Because that apparently is, it can't be calculated, so can't be presented.
- [14:22]
B
I mean, you know, you know, divide numbers. It's really, it's tough.
- [14:29]
A
I, it's really difficult.
- [14:31]
B
It's pretty.
- [14:32]
C
If you just come back and pull.
- [14:34]
B
All the way out.
- [14:35]
C
The most important thing to realize is that the markets hate what Uncertainty.
- [14:41]
A
Uncertainty.
- [14:41]
C
Hate uncertainty. And if the markets hate uncertainty, they, they go to cash, they get, they get liquidity. You know, they, they need to take some exposure off the table. And by and large we're seeing a massive amount of exposure being taken off the table in cryptos, in bitcoin and the other, you know, what, whatever is, is not bitcoin. So that's not surprising at all. What, what is surprising is that, you know, we had a lot of chatter last week about, you know, problems with the, just the sheer amount of, of, of, I guess the, the multiples that are in these AI stocks and the exposures and the AI stocks. And then you had Michael Burry come out and I'm not sure we didn't talk about this last week.
- [15:37]
A
Shorted heavily, then closed his hedge funds.
- [15:40]
C
He, he closed, he closed his hedge fund. Now it's unclear whether he just closed it and he's just managing his own money and he, he just doesn't want to hear the noise like last time because remember, he almost got liquid. Like he was right up against the edge and he just may not want to hear it. He thinks the, the markets are irrational and they're not making sense and so he doesn't want to hear it. He's going to do his own trade and, and get away from the noise and that's probably smart for him. You know, then you had all the articles about the, just the incestuous revenue Counting inside the open AI and Nvidia networks. And, and whether or not that's, that is, is a problem. It's difficult to, to pull apart. You know, are we looking at. And so this is on people's minds in the market and it's on institutions minds in the market. And you saw some of this in, in the price action last week in stocks which was, hey, are, do we have a problem here that's looking like Enron 2.0 now? I don't think we do. You know, that's my, that's my personal opinion, but I have not dug deeply enough to give a fully informed opinion on it. I want to make that clear. I am not exposed to that stuff except tangentially because of the hedge fund that I run. And the, and the assets that we have are they, they are exposed to that in some beta and because of the way that the market moves and how these things are correlated. But you know, especially things like the, the energy stocks and they used to be called bitcoin miners. Right. So, but once upon a time, Once upon a time until Mike Alfred got involved. But the, you know, the, but the. If you're looking at Bitcoin and wondering what the heck is going on, it's, I mean, it's just not, it's not rocket science to see this, have risk taken off the table on the weekend in a name like Bitcoin, because there's large holding in it and it, and it can, you can raise a lot of liquidity in it really quickly at a time when the markets, the rest of the markets are closed, like nothing's open. And bitcoin's trading all weekend. It's not a surprise. So it's nothing that we've haven't seen before. You know, to Mike's point, look, Bitcoin has drawn down 25% from the peak already. And does that shock me? No, of course not. You know, we, we've, we've said it could draw back to a hundred thousand. Now that it's under a hundred thousand, that's a little bit surprising for this time of year. But again, like Dave said, it's not surprising for people to be doing window dressing and moving their portfolios around this time of year. It's actually, it would be surprising if they weren't.
- [18:29]
D
Weren't.
- [18:31]
C
So that's just the way that the, that Wall street operates. I guess what really does surprise me more is and I didn't expect quite this, the, the sheer amount of, of selling we've been seeing is just the absolute massive amount of old coin selling. The OGs are apps there they are dumping and dumping and dumping and you, you know, you could say what you want, maybe they're moving wallets. They're not. You rationalize in any way you want. It's now it's an ipo. It's like a, you know, it's like the post IPO activity where the, the first players get out, you can say whatever you want. The reality is they're cashing in and they're going to cash and, and yachts is what they're doing. And again, I will reiterate, I don't blame them. I mean they've, if you've held on for this long and you've done this well and you've become a billionaire, God bless you, you know, and people have.
- [19:30]
A
To remember this, for some of these guys, this is 10, 20, 30% of their coins. You can't make the assumption that they're unloading everything. A lot of these guys are literally driving Toyota Corollas, living in a one bedroom apartment and are finally thinking, hey, it's been 15 years, let's go. I said this Matt Hogan yesterday though, and I've said it repeatedly, James, it's just exactly what you did. I'm surprised they have so much and I'm surprised they continue to just keep going, unload, amaze me how much supply there is in the market.
- [19:58]
C
I under, you know, I honestly think that, and look, they were far more sophisticated in, in their understanding of bitcoin than I ever was. But you know, I would, I would guess that some of the, a lot of them are not sophisticated investors and, and are, and are just like, I just want to, I want to now get out. I've held on this long and they've done better than any Wall street, you know, executive in, in the history of Wall street and so well done. But I think they, a lot of them had in their mind a hundred thousand, they're going to ride this cycle as far as they can and they think, well, it's four year cycle, it's over, it hit 125, it's done and I'm going to cash out anywhere between 100, 125, 000 is good enough for me because I've made a billion dollars, you know, whatever it is. The second thing is, and this is the crucial point and this is what's really critical to what Mike is talking about is, and, and to put an, an accent on Dave's point, which is we have three or Four data points in Bitcoin. Like literally you can't, we can't just keep looking at this, these charts and saying oh it's a four year cycle. It's for you. The four year cycle in my mind is dead. I don't see this under a four year cycle anymore. It's not driven by the having and the, you know, the, the reward that's coming from mining anymore. It just doesn't make any sense. That, that does not make sense to me. What does make sense is it to be on more of a four year cycle because of political noise or adoption or you know, you know, political hate that. That. It does make sense to me. You know antagonism from the Biden administration was real. The adoption from the, from the Trump administration. Well we saw a, we saw a large benefit from that right after the election that we've talked about went from 65000 to a hundred thousand in a nanosecond. And so we have seen it gone up 50% from that real adopt, you know, real support from, from Trump administration. Well you're seeing it behind the scenes because of things like the, you know a lot of different things have happened on the regulatory front which have been positive. It's not from Trump, it's from the whole admin, you know, the whole Republican, you know, Congress and all of that and, and more support in that, in, in the conservative side. So you're going to start seeing banks adopting it like we've been seeing J.P. morgan is, is doing. You know they're, they're coming up with products and lending products and collateralized products and, and other banks are following suit. Morgan Stanley and you're, you're going to start seeing more and more and more banks doing this. Have we seen the benefit in the price? No, we saw the benefit in the price from ETFs and a lot of, a lot of you know, adoption from smaller institutions. We just saw that it's the, the Ibid is, is one of, if not the largest single position that Harvard owns. The Harvard Endowment. That's a big deal. You know, that's not like you. We can't just ignore these things. But what is surprising with all of that positive momentum and all the positive developments again is just the sheer amount of selling that's coming from the old coins. And until that's done, we're going to continue like this.
- [23:23]
A
Yeah, there makes some big outflows from those digital asset products.
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B
Do the math. You got to do some math for Bitcoin to become the globe to Replace gold or at least make inroads on gold. Gold is held incredibly widely, right? Gold is held by central banks. Gold is held by, you know, by pools of capital. Gold is held by individuals. It's used. It's the way for wealth building in India, you know, via, you know, whatever gold. But gold is in the financial system. Bitcoin was 70% in the hands of a bunch of people who were outside the financial system, you know, several years ago. Until that number shrinks to 10, 15, 20%. Bitcoin can't approach gold. It just, it literally can't. The numbers don't work. And so you need to have distribution phases. We pro. We did see a fairly sizable distribution phase in 2021. Or is it 2022? I get confused. After Paul Tudor Jones made his point around 10,000, there was a very sizable distribution phase where the market. Paul Tudor Jones said this. Other hedge funds started talking about it. People like me managed to finally get my retirement fund put into bitcoin. And it, from the day that he made his statement, for five months, it did nothing. It dropped a little below. It went a little above. It dropped a little below. It stayed there. And five, six months later, it started that epic run. And it started very slowly. On the epic run, it went from, you know, 10,000 to 12 to 14,000 over a couple months. And then, you know, the selling stopped completely. And whoosh. We saw massive exuberance at the end of that huge speculative, you know, impulse. Kind of the same thing we saw with silver over the last, you know, over the summer. And, you know, the difference is there was just less, less selling once the selling stopped. And people say, oh, you know what? I'm going to wait for the next round number, which is a hundred thousand. All of a sudden there was no coins. Whoosh. Now, am I saying that's going to repeat? Yes, it's going to repeat. Is it going to look exactly the same? No, of course not. But you're in that period. The difference is, is a hundred thousand is a really meaningful number because it effectively sets people up for life as opposed to making them feel happy. There's a difference. So if you owned a thousand Bitcoin at 10,000, that's a lot of money. At a hundred thousand, that's game over. I don't have to work again.
- [26:03]
C
And to be clear, I. I've. I've heard From a few OGs that have sold because. And not Larry, but I have heard from few GS who have sold, and their answer is I want to have a. You Know, I want to be able to live to, to exist the next two years without losing sleep and knowing that I've at least secured my family's future.
- [26:32]
B
Exactly.
- [26:34]
A
For 50 generations. Yeah.
- [26:36]
C
Right. But yeah, you know, for generations.
- [26:39]
A
Although they'll blow it in the second generation generational wealth.
- [26:42]
B
But it doesn't. But the thing that matters is that there is a group of those people who want to who. That's true. And there's a group of those people who say why can't we be the next Jeff Bezos? Why can't we be the next Uber? You know, whatever. And they'll hold out for a million. And, and look, it markets are complicated but the point is when you look.
- [27:02]
A
I didn't do it by holding something. He did it by building something. But yeah, building.
- [27:08]
B
Well building and being when you take a financial risk and you with significant conviction and you're right, you can catch you, you, you. Most people would cash out. I mean I don't know about you Mike, but when I buy something that's speculative and it goes crazy, I sell 25. I generally my first, first reaction is always it hasn't been in all play.
- [27:31]
A
With the house's money.
- [27:32]
C
Well that's what Mike was saying that all along he's saying like just take some off the table, you know, gold.
- [27:38]
B
But here's, but the thing that I'm trying to get at here is what is, what is funny is the stories so all like the whole zcash narrative. And you know I, I had a whole conversation with Danish about this yesterday because I jumped on the coffee with Danish thing and we had, we, we had some fun this weekend, just chatting among a few of us. But you know with, with like 800 or 900 people watching. It was kind of amusing. But the, the interesting thing is when you look at it, the narratives from a lot of the OGs are like oh well it's you know, Simon Dixon. Now Simon and I don't see eye to eye on a lot of things we do see on others. But when he says well blackrock having ibit means that it's captured by the financial system, which means bitcoin isn't what I thought it was. Well, what did you think? How do you think you're going to get bitcoin?
- [28:28]
C
That is one that is actually, that is a very important point is that somewhere like that's been captured by Wall Street. It's not the freedom can't go around it that you know self sovereign money that we thought it was going to.
- [28:38]
A
Be except it is around it. You got to go through it. Like there's no path to global adoption without. Exactly.
- [28:43]
B
That's right. But the point is, is that.
- [28:45]
C
That's been my point all along. Yeah.
- [28:47]
B
What matters, what matters to those people. And I will keep saying it is. Yes, if it is an. If it. As long as it is an option. And there are places like Britain that are talking about banning self custody or the UK or Europe, which is kind of insane. But they're going to try. I don't know how you're actually going to do it, but the truth is as long as it is an option to be self sovereign, as long as on demand settlement, which in everything out of our sec. Everything out of our government has always been a feature of every single attempt at legislation. The fact is as long as you have the ability to hold it yourself and it's portable, you haven't lost anything by having others.
- [29:28]
C
They'll make it near impossible. The way they'll do that is that they, the Europe is already, they're already going down this road. They're going to regulate every single app that's on your phone. They're gonna, they're gonna regulate every single rail that you have from a, from a financial system into exchanges and they're going to say that you're, you know, they're going to limit either the amount you can hold, the amount you can spend or where you hold it, how you hold it. And it's got to be on exchange. Like they're.
- [29:54]
B
That's, that has nothing.
- [29:55]
C
They're literally talking about if you, if you want to. If you want to.
- [29:59]
B
James, James, you can go on the rant but focus on the fact differentiate why or how could you have any crypto asset or any asset that would do better job of than Bitcoin at self sovereignty in that scenario.
- [30:13]
C
I agree a hundred percent. I'm just saying they'll make it very difficult. The, the barrier to getting will be. It'll be like the, you know, going into the. In, in2010 or 2010 where you're going into a parking lot with a suitcase of cash to get, you know, bitcoin on a thumb drive.
- [30:29]
A
Well, I've been there.
- [30:31]
B
Yeah.
- [30:31]
D
It's.
- [30:32]
B
It wasn't a suitcase where they're headed.
- [30:34]
C
That's all I'm saying.
- [30:35]
B
Yeah. You'll end up with. Europe is in a very slippery self. You'll end up with a black market. Right. You know, you'll end up with all sorts of stuff. But you notice that that's Not a.
- [30:44]
C
Bare case for bitcoin. I'm saying it's a bear case for Europeans.
- [30:48]
B
Yes, exactly. It's not about bitcoin. But the point about the OGs is what's happening in the United States is it's an option. There is no, let's be very clear here. There is zero, and I mean zero chance that, that some people will ever trust or do self custody because they don't trust themselves. They're too sloppy. They, they don't have the technology. They're going to want to trust an intermediary. Of course, gold you can hold in a necklace. Try selling gold in size and using it for, and using it for something. You're not working with gold shavings to a store these days.
- [31:22]
C
Let's get back, let's get back to like the macro because this is what the macro show is not just about picking.
- [31:27]
B
Yeah, yeah. We really do need to talk about Japan. You're right.
- [31:30]
C
But there's a lot, there's a couple things like we need to talk about the fact that you had a slew of Fed governors come out last week and absolute like you, you, they could not be more hawkish saying that we're not, we're not having a rate cut in, you know, in December. And to Mike's point, that's got the market more than split now. Now you've got the, the, the probability went from 70% of a rate cut using Fed fund futures now to 41%. You know, it was at 69 just a week and a half ago. And you know, two weeks ago before the Fed meeting, it was at 67%. You know, so here we are. Or you know, here we are. This is, we're, we're, we have a lot of uncertainty in the market trying to figure out what rates are going to be and just how hawkish the Fed is going to be. At the same time, you came off the back end of a really sloppy repo market at the end of the, at the end of the month, last month. So that's got people a little bit jittery and wondering just how much liquidity is out there.
- [32:37]
A
Wasn't there a crap auction last week too?
- [32:40]
C
It wasn't, it wasn't terrible. It was just, just another not great. You know, I mean, but you've got the, you've got, here's the thing that you do have and this is really important. The, the government's reopening. You've got over a hundred billion dollars, probably closer to $150 billion. That's sitting there in the treasury general account that has just been locked up for months now, you know, over, over a month that the treasury general account is supposed to be at 850 billion. And right now it's, it's bumping up against a trillion, you know, so, yeah, that's, I did write about that last week. So, you know, the, the, the, this, it's, this is liquidity that's coming, and you could see the markets needing more liquidity in, in like. Let me share this, Scott.
- [33:38]
A
You tweeted about this.
- [33:42]
C
I tweet about that.
- [33:43]
A
Well, yeah. Do you really believe the government's going to curb spending? The Fed. Yeah. Stop rising forever.
- [33:50]
C
Yeah, exactly. But here, so here's, you know, if you, if you just share this. This is, this is the SOFR spread.
- [33:56]
B
Right?
- [33:57]
C
So this is the overnight lending spread. This is a secured overnight, you know, repo rate, basically. Right. So it's a funding rate so far, secured overnight funding rate. Which means that if you're a financial institution and you've got Treasuries that you need you, but you need cash, you can go ask your buddy, hey, can I, can I borrow some, some cash? And I'll give you my Treasuries overnight. That, and they'll give you a rate to do that. Typically, it's right on the Fed funds rate. You could see right here, it's typically right about the Fed funds rate or a little bit below. Why would it be below? Because you're giving them Treasuries so it's secured. It's not like an unsecured loan, you know, so. But you're seeing here that this has gotten a little bit more volatile that the. Going into the end of 2025. And now it's, it's, you can see that the trend is higher, that the, the rate is going up, that people are charging each other. There used to be a really big stigma to go into the overnight window because it meant that you were, you were illiquid. It's like using your, it's like using your Visa card to, you know, Pay off your MasterCard. Pay off your MasterCard. Yeah, basically. Well, basically it's like, it's like using your Visa card to pay your, your, you know, your auto loan, like taking a cash advance from your Visa card to pay your auto loan. It's like, that's not, that's not a great move. That's kind of the way it used to be looked at in, in Wall street on, you know, and in, you know, in, in Dave and Mike. Know what I'm talking about? It's like he didn't want to go. The overnight window, it had a bad stigma to it, but now you've got this thing, you know, you've got the standing repo facility that the Fed created and they're like, nah, come get some cash anytime you need it. So you can keep the liquidity there. But banks are still reluctant to do it. They're borrowing from each other. But the funny thing is reserves are going down. It's getting a little bit tight and that's what's. And people are nervous about this too right here. And so if they're nervous about this, it doesn't surprise me that they're selling assets they can get their hands some cash from that have been quite volatile over the their life. Something like Bitcoin doesn't surprise me at all.
- [36:15]
B
So James, two, two questions and their questions, question number one. It has been asserted by a few people that there have been lots of emergency meetings and you know, and so they're, they're pointing to stresses or they think that there's something underneath the surface that we don't ever see. I, I never believe conspiracy theories. I'm curious what you take on that.
- [36:37]
C
I saw that from the Financial Times. I, you know, until I, until I see it from a reputable source, you know.
- [36:45]
B
But I agree with you about the Financial Times.
- [36:47]
C
Consider Financial Times a reputable source anymore.
- [36:49]
B
No Houston.
- [36:51]
C
So you know, if I, I don't, I, I haven't heard in, in my, in my circles that there's you know, massive like anybody's running around their head cut off like, like they did back in long term capital management kind of thing or back in the repo crisis. I'm not hearing that stuff.
- [37:11]
D
Okay.
- [37:11]
C
Is it possible, sure, maybe it's quiet that they're just quietly meeting but I don't think these are like, this isn't like a mid meeting. Oh let's start QE tomorrow kind of meeting is not what I'm hearing.
- [37:25]
B
I'm relating, asking to this. No know I understand that but swap lines to Tokyo on the other hand are. Is a different question. So with the JGBs definitively breaking above that, you know the, the where are we? Let's, let's get it exactly where are we right now? Bonds. Sorry, I'm just trying, just trying to get to.
- [37:46]
A
Here we are.
- [37:47]
C
Yeah, exactly.
- [37:48]
B
You know, definitively the, the JGB, you know, over 1 7. It wasn't all that long ago that we said if it gets over 1:6, that people are going to start panicking on the carry trade. Right. And you know, the carriage trade hasn't vanished. There's still a, an absolute ton of Japanese liquidity, you know, people.
- [38:09]
A
Yeah, we got to get Mike in here on Japan.
- [38:11]
B
Yeah, exactly. As I keep, I keep asking, I'm, I, I want to know why is it that nobody's covering this today when the JGBs are now a full 10 basis points above what used to be considered a critical threat on that.
- [38:24]
D
Yeah, I guess I'm jaded by JGBs. The question here was I was on live TV a couple years ago, I said JGB and the young anchor did not know I was talking about versus those of us. I figured they'd make you laugh. I mean because for those of us, you know, 30, 40 years ago this was everything and now it's just such a saturated part of markets. Yeah, the carry trademark.
- [38:45]
B
I get it.
- [38:46]
D
I just don't know how it makes much of a difference anymore. I'm more focus on really. Okay, there's obviously volatility going on in Japan and now we have issues with China. To me it's that we still have that 10 year note yield in the JGB at 7.2. But in China it's been one of these biggest bull markets the last five years is that 10 year note yield at 1.8. And I just think of ways what's going to stop it from going there. So I definitely want to go there but I'd like to show you a few charts if I can to to rope in what I'm thinking on the macro with if you can link this Scott, with everything you're talking about. First we talked about we're down to 43%. James, you mentioned that for the next cut. But it's one key thing. Remember then the Fed cut in September. We looked at the September Fed funds a year out it was at 3%. Now it's 3.17. So what's happening? The Fed cut the cut twice and bond yields are going up. Duh, guys, sorry, it's wrong. You're not supposed to be cutting rates. Markets telling them that. So we got to go out to. You got to go out to way into next year like June, April to get 3%. Then it starts going up again. That's the problem. It's the lose, lose stock markets telling me you can't cut anymore. Cryptos might be of a problem. But I want to tilt over the key thing, the macro things that have really got me scared. And this is a Chart, I can go back 50 years. If you take the S&P 500 divided by GDP, divided by the MSCI X World UX Index and divided by gold, it's all the same chart. And gold versus gold, it leads. But gold's broken down. It's breaking down through this key support. And this is why I like to point out, okay, so you might say versus GDP doesn't really matter yet. So this antiquated. But versus the rest of the world, they all might just be reverting a little. Just a little reversion is what I'm worried about. Just starting to kick in the next few months. And what is the same chart of that? It's bitcoin to go. That's the same thing. The key thing is this thing has never gone up. When volatility is this slow, you get. It's just the way it works. Maybe it's different this time. Every time we get volatile slow bitcoin gold goes down. Of course, our model shows it should be at 13. When it's at 25 and 23, it's just heading that way. So I'll end with one key chart that really struck me. And. And when we did an X spaces on Friday and CJ was pointing out how bullish he was because of the chart and bitcoin, I just look at an annual chart in bitcoin, it's just on the cusp of going down. What stops it for going to 50,000? Nothing. It's just meh. It's not a big deal. That's when I like to get. Maybe get re. Bullish again and maybe some other reason. It's just if, you know, you take out some of the speculative excesses, you flush it out and that's what bitcoin always does. And then it resets. But right now I don't see. I don't see a stop in the macro until things tilt over and bitcoin's leading way, until it maybe gets back to 50 and we just start this green on the year. If it starts turning red, I don't know what stops it now. But am I.
- [41:28]
C
You have to have it. You have to have a structural event for it to go to 50 in my.
- [41:32]
B
Well, but. But he. But forget that for let's. First of all, it's. It's the denominator. I don't want to go down that road. You said something. That's the most important point that is actually happening. And to not acknowledge that is problematic. You said we need to flush speculative excesses. It's not done, don't get me wrong, not done. But if you go through coin market cap and you start looking at the speculative excesses that were in actually potentially good coins, coins that people like, the, these sizes are down, I mean just over the last 30 days, you're talking 20, 30% corrections in a slew of.
- [42:11]
A
Assets in a five year period.
- [42:13]
B
30 days. And over the last 60 or 70 days you're talking 50, 60, 70% down. You are seeing a huge flush in speculative excesses. While Bitcoin is down 20 from its all time highs, these things are down 50 to 70% in many cases from not all time highs, from intermediate or whatever. So it's, you're seeing a lot of speculative exits. You're seeing the crypto community effectively pull themselves into a turtle shell and not buying. So you ask yourself who's selling? I don't think there's a lot of selling right now except for people taking profit, traders taking profits. I don't think that the OGs are selling at these levels. Just, it's just not what you're seeing. What you're seeing is the crypto community isn't buying. The only people who are buying are people who look more like us. And that is focused on Bitcoin and a little to some degree in Ethereum. You don't see, you know, people in institutions running into hyper liquid. Even though hyper liquid has some pretty good fundamentals. You know, you don't see them running into sui, you know, you don't see them into, you know, whatever bit Tensor.
- [43:15]
A
Those people got liquidated on October 10th as well. So that's right, people who are no longer in the market.
- [43:21]
B
Exactly. So there was a massive excess flush that happened and now we're seeing the, the, the after effects of that. In order to get another alt season cycle, you need to see a serious bull market market of new money into it. And you may never see it. You may never see, you know, fart coin go to a billion dollars again. You may never. I hope, I actually hope it doesn't happen. But, but to say that there, there hasn't been now as far as Bitcoin and 50,000, whatever numbers you're picking, you're actually if right now you are at one of the most stretched points it's ever been in, in where are we? One of the most stretch points it's ever been. The most stretched it ever was. It's, it's pretty close to now. It was on September of 23 at Bitcoin, at, you know, it was sitting at 25000 compared to the net. The Bitcoin network might have been the most stretched on the downside relative to hash rate. But it's pretty close to where we are now. And you know, I'm not gonna, I'm just gonna say that that's just reality. The hash rate's continuing to churn higher. There continues to be adoption. You can't ignore adoption metrics when you're talking about an asset that I haven't said in a few weeks is essentially an option on its adoption, future adoption.
- [44:40]
A
Its own future adoption. You gotta go.
- [44:42]
B
So as long as that, that, that is your, until that model is broken, you have to assume it's still there. Now there are some lunatics out there that talk about S curves and power laws which say, well, it should be whatever. You can say whatever you want. We are right now somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% below where you would think that that model would, would say it's worth it. It was 35% low in September of 23. You can't ignore that. That doesn't exist in any other crypto. There are some that have real, that have real cash flows. I mean you could argue and that that gets, get distributed like bnb. You know, as long as Binance is healthy and doing well, you can make that argument. But that's done very well. And yes, it's fallen in line with everything else, but it's still, it still looks, looks healthy. But you can't. The problem with, with looking at crypto as 21 million or hell even 200. I would go so far as to say 10 is you have to distinguish between the, the fundamentals and, and there are fundamentals.
- [45:48]
A
Or it can just say everything else.
- [45:50]
B
What'd you say?
- [45:51]
A
Or just say bitcoin and everything else to varying degrees.
- [45:54]
B
Many, many, many times.
- [45:55]
D
I gotta, I gotta follow up on that one, David. A few little lessons I learned was number one was, was for this one was just translate praise that bitcoin God. I say pass the ammunition because it's going down. And then another thing I Learned from Charlie DeFrancesca, Charlie D, some of you might remember him, he was in the first market wizards. I remember him from the trading pits. His key quote was all that matters is what's on your, was on your statement. Now we get the statements real time. This before the statement. I'm just telling you that this assets going down, it's going to continue to go down. It might go down a real lot, the whole space, which is like the total market Cap of Shiba Inu and Dogecoin is still $30 billion. You can take that down to $30. Let's what's flushed it out to me this is what the process starting so I'm looking at now this I'm putting in that inflection point here now obviously any type of crypto just to recover you need the stock market to go up first and I'm pointing out we might just have that 5% drop into the year end and that's the thing is just getting started that's my fair is this is so so if you.
- [46:53]
B
Go down the five year chart and that's what's telling you Bitcoin should be at 50 since the money supply is essentially doubled in that period of time. Why is that not relevant when that.
- [47:04]
D
Because there was, there was one cryptocurrency in 20002009 now there's 27 million there's unlimited supply these things I know you.
- [47:12]
A
Say it's different not have the same debate again.
- [47:16]
D
So I'll point out one thing so I I appreciate on the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index you should push back on it partly because I'm biased because I helped create it. The thing I like about is part of recreated is its market cap it's top 12 but it caps at 35% so that means it's it's 70. Bitcoin, Ethereum, almost every other index is not market cap. The one I have right next to it is the market vectors of 1100 index. It does not cap its market cap which means about 70 is Bitcoin so why bother?
- [47:45]
B
I mean because bitcoin is a different asset than the rest of crypto. That's the short answer Guys, I don't.
- [47:51]
A
Think we're ever, I don't think we're ever sorting this one and no we are in the next 10 minutes and I want to talk about one more thing specifically. Okay James, go ahead.
- [47:59]
C
The point I was trying to get to before all of this was that we're not on a four year cycle anymore. You know Dave, I appreciate the, the hash rate, you know differential because that is, that is a good point but let's face it, Bitcoin is the leading barometer for global liquidity. There's just nothing has been like it. It's been, it's been the tip of it for a long time here for many years. You can and you just, just study Michael Howell's reports and understand how and why that works. And so I look we what you've what What Mike says is absolutely true that we could have a market drawdown here whether or not Bitcoin has already front run that or will go down with it another 10:15 because of it. Up to debate.
- [48:53]
A
Yeah. Whether or not that's me before the show he said smart money would be selling socks to buy Bitcoin here to exactly that example.
- [49:00]
B
Exactly the point insider selling of stocks is very, very high.
- [49:04]
C
That's right.
- [49:04]
B
And that's always a really good indicator. But, but I do want to make one point on the stock market that's important. Yeah. There are lots of people making an absolutely horrendously bad analogy. Actually there's two hugely bad analogies that are being made. Okay. The two are comparing what's going on in various companies to Enron and comparing various companies going on to Global Crossing and World cup come okay. They're terrible analogies and I will tell you why it's Enron was, was fraud, pure and simple.
- [49:35]
C
Straight up.
- [49:35]
B
If there's fraud in any of the mag 7 or, or, or any of the high flyers. Yeah. They're going to get crushed. I, I, well hold on, hold on.
- [49:44]
C
Hold on to that for a second. The reason that, the reason that Wall street and, and hedge funds got nervous last week was because of that interview that, that Sam Altman did that completely dismissed any questions about revenue without and, and just what's his name who was gun like Kirschner.
- [50:08]
A
He said, he said tell me.
- [50:11]
C
Yeah, Gerstner was interviewing. He said look, I've got a million people lined up who want myself. The reason that that hit a note and they hit a raw note for investors who have been around the block who remember this, who were sitting at their desk when they had the Enron call on and Jeff Skilling, he, he responded to an analyst question with listen, you little and you could like the entire street went silent. You, everybody was like I remember and Enron like we're like my, my hedge fund manager at the time, very fair point.
- [50:52]
B
But the hedge fund manager at the.
- [50:54]
C
Time looked across the desk and said do we have any exposure in the book to Enron anywhere? Get it off the like, get it out now. Like you could see it selling in real time as like it was nuts. So that's true. And that was the same feeling that I got watching that interview.
- [51:12]
B
No, that's a very fair point, James.
- [51:14]
A
Yeah. The core, the corollary, the one that everybody here will remember is when CZ tweeted about FTT Token and Carolyn Ellison went on Twitter and said I'll Buy it all from you for $50.
- [51:28]
C
Right, exactly.
- [51:29]
B
Oh yeah, you're right. So but the difference is this is Sam Altman in a private company and the question of how much of their capex is locked in and how much of their capex is in the price. So if Open AI went answer a.
- [51:42]
C
Question with we've done the research and we, we see a lot of revenue. That's not an answer.
- [51:46]
B
Right, but here's the difference. Xai the various Chinese companies, Google and Microsoft aren't making those statements.
- [51:56]
A
Okay, well there's something I want to talk about with those because this is important when we're talking about risk or risk on and risk off and where the market's heading. Peter Thiel dumped his entire Nvidia position worth over 100 million. He also sold I believe 75ish percent of all of his Tesla. Bill Gates foundation sold 65% of their Microsoft. Last time I checked that was his company for 8.8 billion. But on the flip side, Mr. Cash himself, Warren Buffett bought Google.
- [52:26]
B
Right?
- [52:26]
C
Bought Google. So here's the thing is For Nvidia and OpenAI the problem is the perception and just the sheer amount of complexity around these special purpose vehicles that people don't understand. They're like, like wait, this revenue is coming from that revenue? Like how is that working? Is it double counting the revenue? How's this working? And to not answer the question is the problem. Right, but what happened back with Enron? It's effectively what happened on the street that day when he said listen you little rather than actually answering a question. And that was the end of Enron. That would literally mark the end of it. That was it.
- [53:03]
B
Yeah, you're 100 right. And as far as OpenAI is concerned and Sam Altman, I would, I don't even want to go down that road but let's just say that it couldn't happen to a nicer guy if it all falls apart.
- [53:14]
C
Well, it's just complex and it's it. I have not been able to study it closely enough to understand there's a huge but.
- [53:20]
B
The but is the difference is and. And the world common Global Crossing are more important at that. When Global Crossing built out and WorldCom was building out all that fiber optic capabilities, right. They admitted, and everyone knew that at that instant there was only demand for 5% as it was. In other words, they built 20 times more fiber than was needed at that time. On the theory expecting, demanding, in fact needing exponential growth for it to even get to a reasonable capacity utilization in five years now it turns out it took 10 and you know, et cetera. And but, but those companies went, went kaboom because people said wait, you cannot be able to deal with that 5%. That's insane. And so for the right now, we are so under capacity and under power in compute, in AI, it wouldn't matter if OpenAI and chat GPT literally vaporized, which is I don't think what's happening. I think his arrogance is. His arrogance. It would have crushed his stock price. Yes, but they're not vape getting vaporized anytime soon. There's still enough capital for them to operate. But even if they didn't, you have xai multiple other. There are many, many others. And the demand is huge because it found product market fit immediately. We were under capacity. Right. Now that difference.
- [54:37]
C
When you see people like, like Peter Thiel selling Nvidia you. Yeah. Why?
- [54:42]
B
Because he remembers videos priced to perfection.
- [54:45]
C
He was there. He remembers this stuff. It's like, if I don't understand it's price to perfection, I, you know, it's just too much. So it's a really good point. Does that mean that there's fraud? No, not necessarily. But I remember, I remember a woman I worked with at Carlson Capital whose husband was at WorldCom and had all his entire his retirement in WorldCom. They lost everything. Vaporized overnight. They lost.
- [55:09]
B
Right. It was so Nvidia right now is trading at a PE of 53. That's after today's, you know, a little bit of a drop. 53. It is, it is one thing to buy a growth company at a very high, you know, price to earnings. It is another to buy the world's largest company at a high price to earnings. This is, this is the sort of data that, that instantiates Mike's signal, like 2030 earnings.
- [55:36]
C
Right. I mean, it's crazy.
- [55:37]
B
Which, which might very well grow into it because it's a huge trend. But what if this is technology? What if other tech creeps in and Nvidia doesn't have the hammer lock that it does now?
- [55:48]
C
Now that's right.
- [55:50]
B
The bigger you get, the harder it is to grow. It's as simple as that. It's one of those things. Trees don't grow to the sky. Right. This is. Now we're all sounding like Mike here, so we're all putting on our mic hats but, you know, so you can enjoy that.
- [56:01]
D
This is what everybody.
- [56:02]
C
But this is what the market's trying to digest. This is exactly what the market's trying to digest and figure out Mike, you're.
- [56:08]
A
Scratching your head relentlessly over here. I want to know what you think of the quote unquote insider selling. But all of this, well when you.
- [56:15]
D
That'S just, you know, to me it doesn't matter who sells, it's. There's more sellers and that's why a lesson I've tried to learn in the market, try not to figure out the nuances of the inner work on the macro bigger picture down. So as you pulled that up I can show you real quickly I just pulled up my screen, you mentioned the video. You know, 50 something times I pull up Walmart 40 times earnings. Okay. It's a retailer. I'm sorry but I just not going to be excited about Walmart at the highest PE in 24 years. And then I tilt over to. I have to just keep pointing out. The key thing that you mention James is bitcoin is the local liquidity indicators. When a top is one, if you overlay it with gold it's a much better indicator. And you know I've been looking this chart. Bitcoin to gold ratio has broken down and my point is I fully expect to continue breaking down. I mean I, I have to admit I got tripped up a little bit before Trump was elected but now it's below those levels and it's. The key thing is if you want an indication now it's where markets are going now I just say sometimes it's better to panic first and that's what's happening in cryptos. I say any type of bid, hit it.
- [57:19]
C
And I hear you and I and I get it. And that's, and that is, that is a choice for people whether they're long term, short term, whatever it is but long term I, here's what I, here's the whole, here's the punchline what I was trying to say about we're out of the four year cycle. We're now on a liquidity cycle. The liquidity has been, has been tight for a while here year and you know, even though global liquidity is expanding it's been a little bit tight here and next year I just cannot see liquidity not expanding next year.
- [57:51]
D
So here's how it stock market going down. The number one source of liquidity on the planet and biggest mountain history is the U S Stock market. And the tip of that iceberg is, is cryptos and the tip of that iceberg are is microstrategy and it's already broken down, it's the bear market market. So to me this is the beginning that's my job, is to look forward. So I think this is all going to pan out by the end of the year. If it doesn't, then I'm gonna have to eat something, eat some crow. But it's all pointing that way.
- [58:17]
B
Right.
- [58:17]
C
And the. Okay. And I, and I do agree that there's a lot of uncertainties, questions about how where the Fed is, is poised or where they're, how they are positioned and what they're going to do.
- [58:28]
D
Okay.
- [58:29]
C
Next month there's a big, there's a big question. Okay, so we're stopping qt. They've already said it. When do they, when do they start adding reserves? We don't know. Is that going to be qe? No, it's going to be qe, not qe. It's going to be, you know, like short term treasury, short term T Bill kind of purchases just to keep more liquidity in the system. It's going to be more like a steady stream than, than a fire hose, you know. But when does the fire hose come? I don't know. Does it have to have a market breakdown to occur? I don't know. Does there, does it have to have a credit event to occur?
- [59:05]
B
I don't know.
- [59:06]
C
But if anything, any of those things do occur, it's coming. There's just no way around it. It's math. And this is where you and I, I, you and I are, are aligned on so much of all of this. But one of the things that we're not aligned on is the, it's not. The Fed has learned their lesson. There's no lesson to learn. It's over. The math is the math. There's no way they can avoid having to ish. To, to create more liquidity. There's just no way. And if you, that's the question. Do you believe that they're going to just draw liquidity out of the system, let the stock market crash, like everything crash and then deal with the fallout? My answer is no, especially because next spring we're getting a gov, A, a chairman of the Fed that's going to be a lot less antigone, antagonistic to this administration than the current one.
- [59:57]
D
So let's remember who appointed the last chairman of the Fed, Mr. Trump. What you guess happens when you get into that position. You do not want to go down in history of.
- [60:06]
C
Not everybody, not everyone remember.
- [60:07]
A
He doesn't remember doing it, though.
- [60:09]
C
Look at, look at what, look at what happened.
- [60:11]
B
Yeah.
- [60:12]
C
Like, look, not everybody keeps a relationship with Trump, you know, and he, Trump has been Hammering this guy for now. It's been years and so, you know, he's beaten down. He made him look like a little boy when he was standing in the construction site and he handed him that, that piece of paper and said you're over. But like it was just, it was, it, you know, if that was me and I was, I was the chairman of the Fed, that would be, that would be humiliating and, and infuriating.
- [60:41]
B
The only thing that matters is self interest and the self interest now for getting to, for avoiding a impeachment two year cycle from enraged, you know, leftists. The only thing that matters is the midterms that he'll probably may very well lose anyway. But he's not going to do it with, with any bullets left in the frigging, you know, any arrows left. Yeah, he's going to fire every bullet and if you don't understand that, you're not paying attention.
- [61:12]
D
So you're not understanding. Here's what you're missing.
- [61:14]
B
I were him I would do exactly.
- [61:16]
D
Here'S what you're missing. The number one issue in the last election, even the one before was cost of living and inflation. If you hack the Fed and get them the ease you get the stock market to keep going up and those 10% and the 20% who make more money and the rest of people who really vote for him are deep in inflation, you're going to lose the midterms and the next election too. It's inflation is all that matters now in the stock market. Trump has just found the lose lose.
- [61:39]
B
Mike, Mike. The correlation, the stock market and the CPI is virtually non existent over there.
- [61:44]
D
Only if you go, go back to 19, 28 and 29. It's not 1980 in Japan.
- [61:49]
B
No, no, no, sorry, false. Last 25 years, five years of that 25, have we had anything other than negative real rates? We've had a massive bullish stock market. It's basically think of it as a waterfall, a water flow, a big stream. And they basically say let's push all this inflation into assets away from consumer inflation and do things that are consumer deflationary. The far bigger worry are tariffs and the, and the lack of ability to onshore and the lack of ability to produce. All their efforts are going to focus and they may fail. I'm not saying they're going to succeed, but I'm telling you that the school of thought that's running this administration believes what I just said to be true. That's all you need to know.
- [62:33]
D
And they're finding out the hard way when you put in a position person in the position where the whole rest of legacy is going to depend on their name getting this right like Volcker did and Mr. Martin didn't, they're not going to do just what the rest of the Fed maybe a first look at. But let's not miss the first. There's a binary model here. First iteration for massive, massive liquidity. Fiscal monetary is the stock market has to go down. That's the way it works. What's missing? Just get through that first iteration first.
- [63:00]
B
Okay, well you know what?
- [63:01]
D
And then we go to the next.
- [63:02]
B
Beauty of this is we'll, we'll get.
- [63:04]
A
We get a third bet because in.
- [63:06]
B
10 months we'll get to see.
- [63:08]
A
So Dave won the first bet. Dave won the first bet when his was Bitcoin going to 15 or 40 I think.
- [63:14]
D
Right.
- [63:15]
A
Quietly Mike smashed us in the second bet where he said that's right, perform bitcoin. And we just kind of never brought it up. So we need a third.
- [63:22]
B
No, no, that's all fair.
- [63:23]
A
Tiebreaker breaker.
- [63:24]
B
I think another way but when you go through report cards and we should all be accountable. The reality is is if we think that interest rates aren't going to surprise to the downside and liquidity isn't going to surprise to the upside, I mean I think that's going to happen. Now bitcoin has been delinked from the stock market over the last few months for reasons that are unique to bitcoin. That doesn't mean that it's delinked if the stock market drops because there's different sellers. The sellers who own bitcoin now will sell if the stock market gets crushed. So it is there. There is something. There is a dynamic at play here. But time does tend to change these things. I've said this many times. I know we're running. We're way over time. Betas and correlations are notoriously unstable for a reason. And so we have to analyze. You can't interpret the delinking as bullish. That's all I'll say. And that is true.
- [64:17]
A
Listen, even if they down. I've made this argument a thousand times. Go back to March of 2020 and Covid Bitcoin bottomed under 4000 right before the stock market 12 or 13 days bottomed. Which asset did you want to be in from that bottom? The one that went up 17x to 70,000 or that doubled?
- [64:35]
B
Yeah, right.
- [64:36]
A
But it'll happen again. But listen, I'm buying all of the dips just in case.
- [64:42]
B
Programmatic I understand. Okay, well, we have Crypto Town hall in eight minutes now.
- [64:47]
A
We did. That was great. I think this might have been the most people that were ever watching the show. Certainly, Dan, it's certainly close. It's amazing what a market crash will do. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with price here. The four year cycle debate is never ending, obviously, but James, I definitely default to there's no cycle. And the people pointed October 6th as the top when the Reddit post said it would be, and that's when it should have topped. But everything else about this has been different. The ETFs made Bitcoin make an all time high way too early, if you believe in the cycle. There was no alt season, which was always a part of the cycle with, with the filtering down. And 2025 has either been a sideways or bear market. When you start zooming back into everything.
- [65:28]
C
That happened, it's going to be tied more tied to global liquidity and, and, and continued adoption. And that's just going to take, that's going to continue to take time, which, you know, that's just, that's just reality. It's just going to take time until people understand that it's not, you know, one of 10,000 cryptos, that it's the only one.
- [65:49]
A
Mike, I'm not sure how we're going to be able to do this when Bitcoin's at 10,000. You know, it's going to be very hard for the three of us. 5050 would be brutal enough. All right, guys, we do have to go. Thank you everybody for tuning in. Incredible show as always. And we'll see on Crypto Town hall in seven minutes. We're back for macro Monday next Monday. Thanks everybody. Have a good one.
- [66:11]
D
That's dope.