The Wolf Of All Streets – Macro Monday

Episode: Bitcoin On Brink Of Collapse As Oil Prices SURGE? What You Need To Know!
Air Date: March 2, 2026
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Dave, James, Mike McGlone

Episode Overview

On this urgent Macro Monday edition, Scott Melker and a panel of top macro and crypto thinkers (Dave, James, and Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone) dissect the unprecedented macroeconomic and geopolitical chaos: the US and Israel are at war with Iran, oil prices in Europe surge 50% after Qatar cut supplies, and markets are whipsawing on every headline. The team unpacks how these intertwined shocks influence Bitcoin’s shaky price, the “flight to safety” trades, inflation, Fed policy, and the deeper macro undercurrents shaping risk assets.

With retail running away from crypto, historic oil price spikes, and gold surging, the hosts debate whether we’re witnessing Bitcoin’s collapse or a brewing contrarian opportunity—and what might come next for stocks, metals, and the whole global system.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Geopolitical Crisis: US/Israel vs. Iran and Oil Shock

• Immediate Backdrop:

  • US and Israel are at war with Iran (00:01).
  • Oil prices in Europe have surged up to 50% as Qatar cuts supplies; Straits of Hormuz threatened (00:01).

• Market Impacts:

  • Energy prices spike, especially in Europe; natural gas prices in the US remain low, while European natgas sees a high premium (16:00).
  • Markets are reacting to uncertainty, with oil up, equities down slightly, and gold up 1-2% (06:49, 08:29).
  • Gold spikes on war news, silver falls (risk asset outflows)—a potentially short-lived move (17:52).
  • Massive backwardation in oil futures signals traders bet the price shock won’t last (16:05).

• Geopolitical Undercurrents:

  • China is Iran’s main oil buyer; disruption hurts China but leaves the West less exposed (13:08).
  • US military capability is expected to swiftly diminish Iran’s offensive capacity, but asymmetric “warlord” disruptions remain a fat-tailed risk (11:07, 12:48, 25:41).
  • The possibility of a transformative “peace dividend” if Iran’s regime collapses, but also the risk of long-term instability and splinter conflict (19:54, 39:45, 41:29).

• Notable Quotes:

  • Dave: “Markets hate uncertainty and we are in the peak of uncertainty right now with oil.” (29:58)
  • Mike: “This is a paradigm shift on a global stage… a major shift in geopolitical trend.” (36:38)

2. Bitcoin: Collapse or Contrarian Opportunity?

• Retail Outflows:

  • Retail has not participated in crypto rallies for months; Bloomberg headlines about retail fleeing are deemed a contrarian bottom signal (03:00).
  • Traditional outlets call crypto “pointless,” while major banks quietly move into Bitcoin custody (04:00).
  • “Bitcoin on the other hand, has survived through all of this and right now looks almost frighteningly cheap and hated. But that's exactly what you get at bottoms.” – Dave (04:00)

• Price Action & Sentiment:

  • Despite war, Bitcoin held critical levels (e.g., $62K), even in low liquidity; traders see that as a sign the market is bottoming (04:00).
  • Debate if Bitcoin will behave as a risk asset (falling in panic) or a flight-to-safety (like in banking crises) (52:18, 52:39).
  • Panel mostly optimistic about Bitcoin’s medium-term resilience, though Mike is short-term bearish, citing “tip of the risk asset iceberg” (61:34).

• Structural Points and Manipulation Narratives:

  • Selling pressure likely linked to derivative contract structures and market mechanics rather than coordinated manipulation (53:56, 57:07, 59:34).
  • Market leverage is uniquely transparent in crypto, making it vulnerable to liquidation cascades, but also different from legacy markets (57:07).

3. Inflation, Bonds, Fed Policy

• Flight to Safety and Inflation:

  • Investors pile into gold and short-term Treasuries, not long bonds, as long-term inflation risk rises (08:42).
  • War and oil spikes drive inflation; expectations adjust, with fears mounting that long-term oil price elevation will sustain inflationary pressure (09:52, 11:07).
  • Fed is now seen as highly unlikely to cut rates in March; only two cuts expected by year end (41:29).

• Yield Curve and Market Reaction:

  • The curve is flat beyond 1-2 years, with little expectation for dramatic rate moves (44:20).
  • Stock market volatility (S&P 180-day vol) at its lowest in 8 years; panelists expect this to rise as macro risk bleeds into equities (44:31).

4. Macro and Geopolitical Regime Change

• US Policy and Global Power Shifts:

  • Trump administration demonstrating willingness to use force and re-align DoD (33:30, 34:45).
  • US is “sending a message” globally, asserting dominance over hostile regimes—this has strategic implications for China, Russia, and energy geopolitics (31:19, 32:33).

• Iran, Regime Change, and Power Vacuums:

  • Skepticism that US removal of Iran’s leadership will yield a positive, stable outcome—concerns over another Mideast power vacuum and failed nation-building (38:20, 39:45).
  • Pahlavi’s interview described as outlining a path to a secular, civilian-run Iran, but panelists doubt it resolves quickly (40:00).

5. AI, Labor Market, and Economic Transformation

• Structural Labor Shifts:

  • Recent massive layoffs (e.g., Jack Dorsey at Block cutting 4,000 jobs) signal the wave of AI-driven job disruption (45:23, 47:21).
  • Middle management is being hollowed out by AI; analysts and “prompt engineers” now more valuable than traditional corporate bureaucrats (45:22, 48:28).
  • This labor displacement is deflationary (less wage pressure), and could boost capital (stocks), but risks societal strife if reindustrialization and regulatory changes don’t keep up (48:28, 51:36).
  • “The AI is going to make assets more valuable writ large… The United States is at a crossroads: reindustrialize, deregulate, or face pitchforks.” – Dave (48:28)

• Fed and Jobs:

  • If AI-driven unemployment spikes, Fed may be forced to pivot more quickly, as its dual mandate includes full employment (47:37).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Gold’s Rally:

  • “The last thing you want to buy on this type of rally is a gold rally. It's like, thank you, we've already done the rallying. If you still got a few longs, you're supposed to be lightening up.” – Mike (17:52)

• On the Risk of a Power Vacuum:

  • “The United States leaving a power vacuum has notoriously been bad long term for those regions… even if you replace someone evil because we don't have a plan and we're terrible at nation building.” – Scott (38:20)

• On Crypto Markets:

  • “Every time I see these news stories, it tells me that, you know, it's, it's like trying to, you know, when you have a fire… and you're hoping the fire will keep going, well, there's just no wood left. Who's left to sell within the crypto community?” – Dave (04:00)

• On U.S. Strategic Signaling:

  • “They did two things when he… we laughed about calling the Gulf of Mexico, turning it into the Gulf of America, and changing the Department of Defense back to its original name, the Department of War. And it is exceedingly obvious that neither one of those was irrelevant.” – Dave (33:35)

• On AI and the Job Market:

  • “Now you need the critical thinking. But the vacuum that has been created between the two levels is astounding.” – James (45:23)

Essential Timestamps

• 00:01 – Episode opens: Setup of oil shocks, war, and market confusion
• 03:00 – Discussion of retail fleeing crypto, Bloomberg headlines, retail as contrarian indicator
• 06:49 – Contrasts in asset flows: gold up, silver/gold divergence, bond/interest rate dynamics
• 11:07 – Mike McGlone joins: Oil market analysis, risks at Straits of Hormuz, US military response
• 16:00–16:10 – Extreme price action: European vs US energy divergence, gas prices, backwardation
• 17:52 – Gold’s run and how to interpret it, “peace dividend” scenario
• 25:41 – Immediate economic impact of a Strait of Hormuz shutdown explained
• 29:58 – Media, misinformation, and how panic/uncertainty drive oil/market moves
• 32:33 – Trump’s first vs second term, recalibrating US strategic threats
• 41:29 – Fed rate cut probabilities post-oil-shock, new terminal rate discussion
• 45:23 – Impact of AI on corporate hiring, job market and the Fed’s potential response
• 52:18–53:56 – Bitcoin’s current status: risk asset, manipulation vs mechanics, market structure
• 59:34 – Market manipulation mechanics, transparency in crypto derivatives
• 61:34 – Mike’s concluding bearish stance on Bitcoin (short-term)

Concluding Thoughts

All panelists agree that the world is dealing with a historic confluence of war, resource shocks, technological revolution, and policy uncertainty. While the headlines scream crisis, much of the “collapse” thesis on Bitcoin and risk assets is challenged by deep market structure, shifting geopolitical interests, and the rise of AI as a macro force.

Scott Melker closes:
“In times of war it's hard sometimes rationally to want to talk about markets because there's a human element, obviously, and it's a horrifying thing… But it is our job to show up and talk about what it means for markets… we will be talking about this for a while.” (62:11)

Useful For:
Listeners interested in how large-scale macro events and technological change translate into market volatility, how risk assets like Bitcoin and gold might behave in extreme environments, and what market professionals really make of the chaos behind the news headlines.

Next Macro Monday will continue tracking these developing crises.