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Host
Bitcoin hit 80,000American dollars in a major.
Michael Saylor
Sell off with a panicking community.
Host
Is it all over?
Michael Saylor
Are we heading into the depths of yet another bear market or is this another bull market correction? We have a lot of news that may give us hints as to what is coming next. And it's the Friday 5, so NLW and I are going to unpack all of it. Let's go, let's. Good morning bear market enthusiasts. It's nice to have you here for the Friday 5 get to go ahead and bring on NLW. Now I checked coin market cap prices aren't that good.
NLW
No, no, it's, this is, this is not a fun one. Usually it waits until Thanksgiving to really lean in like this.
Michael Saylor
Does that mean that we can possibly get a good Thanksgiving? You know, we just finally bottom here and then we're back to prices from like last week and everybody's extremely excited about that. Like 90,000 looks amazing.
NLW
That's what I, I mean that's, that's, that's what I'm hoping for now how fast our expectations reset.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, it is very fast. I mean let's just talk about the market here to sort of set the table. Bitcoin headed for worse months since crypto collapse of 2022. Of course we know that these are the FTX days. Actually when you look at a lot of things technically on the chart, it's worse. I looked RSI on the daily chart is more oversold. If you look at the fear and greed index and you believe in that, fear is much higher or the number there is much lower. This is a significant event right now, at least for sentiment we're getting another 1.5 billion worth of levered positions since yesterday. Seems like now what used to be a full market event of a billion was like FTX, right? A billion to 2 billion. Now that's a daily occurrence. And we have Bitcoin dropping below 81,000 for the first time since April 11th. Pretty, pretty, pretty disgusting out there.
NLW
Yeah, I mean I think that the question is part of what makes this a real challenge. And I guess, you know, I was thinking about what, what my sort of like base framework for understanding this all is, is. We are now experiencing, it feels like the first big sort of correction, bear market type event of the post institutional, post ETF cycle. This feels to me, look, it could be that we ultimately look back at it and it was just an extreme correction relative to everything else. But it also could be that we are now experiencing the first, you know, what, what a baby Winter, or hopefully a baby winter feels like in the context of this new era that we're in, you know, the, the four year cycle, I think most people think has to change, inevitably has to change in some ways following, following sort of the mass introduction of institutions and we don't really have emotional patterns yet for what, you know, for what things look like that aren't, you know, a deep bear market following a blow off top or you know, some crazy fraud thing because we just haven't lived through, you know, there's going to be a new normal that gets created and we don't know what that pattern is yet. And it's very hard to, we feel unmoored in addition to sad about the price, you know, like at least, at least when price is doing a thing that you expect, even if it's a shitty thing that you expect, you can, you can deal with it. You know, you're like, you brace yourself and you hold on. This week you start, we're flying without a rudder, you know, we have no.
Michael Saylor
Idea we're flying without a rudder because there's no fundamental reason to point to for why it's happening. Right. We've always get these massive corrections in bull markets. If we're calling this a bull market, we can debate that for another day. But on the way up from 17,000 to 129, we have multiple 30% corrections. We've done that every cycle in 2021, which is largely viewed as one of the most bullish years in the history of crypto. Right. The fourth year of a massive fourth four year cycle, we had a drawdown in 30 days from 69,000 to sub 30,000. Of course we kind of chopped around at 28, 30 and then went all the way back up to 69,000. But at that point we had Tesla's not taking bitcoin and China shut down this time it's just seemingly happening in a vacuum. And I think that that's what's driving people so crazy. I mean, Raoul Paul actually had a great thread about this. I will say the part I like the best. My strategy is to add into these sell offs, but I'm okay with large swings and PNL and a lot long term multi year trend as I've explained many times. But everyone's circumstances and time horizons are different. That is my approach here too. And it's interesting. You can go through a few charts. I mean Charlie bolello far from one of us, right at 80,600. Bitcoin's now down around 36% from its all time high of 126. That's the biggest correction off an all time high since 22. Is this unusual volatility for bitcoin? Not at all. We've seen similar or bigger drawdowns every year. It does feel a little different maybe because as you said, we're just so tied to the macro and the rest of the world and we've become institutionalized. So you have this huge wild card as to what's going to happen. I mean, we're seeing ETF outflows. It's not pretty there.
NLW
It feels different because we're not idiots and we can't pretend to be. And you can't have it both ways that we're in this new paradigm where like we're tethered to sort of, you know, traditional markets in a different way. And also we should expect these same massive drawdowns in bear market behavior. Like, I'm sorry, you can't really. I mean, maybe it proves itself out to be that the bitcoin pattern of those types of drawdowns persist in spite of that. But I think that part of the uneasiness certainly that I feel is it doesn't seem to me like it should be that way in quite the same way anymore. It feels more dramatic than a major macro asset should draw down. You know, like, I agree scary in the previous things and I think that a lot of people have that, you know, the humility to know that we really don't know what's going on. And so it's, you know, this is a case, I think, where humility can actually make you feel better because we just don't understand yet. So it's, it's hard to, to draw a good conclusion, but it's also hard to draw an overly negative conclusion. I do think that one pattern that I'm seeing a lot, and this is, you know, far from wanting to characterize everyone this way. But if you are a crypto person who has had the privilege of not giving a shit about what's going on in traditional markets for the last X years that you've been in crypto, you no longer have that privilege. The idea that we don't have any sense of why this should be happening is limited. If you are not watching like we are in a, in a larger market moment where in addition to your points about fear and greed and, and being an extreme fear moment, I think I was at 13 earlier this week. I don't even know what it is right now. We have a, like the, the this, this market cannot get over its own concerns anymore. There is something fundamental has broken in and around the way that people are thinking about AI. Basically there's a terminology that's floating around right now. Someone called it, I can't remember what it was. Sam Sabbath, it was SS. But it was basically the argument is that this RAS, this massive spate of deals that Sam Altman and OpenAI announced were actually so immense, 1.4 trillion in commitments, they were so scary that the market actually sort of started to get really, really nervous about just how much of its sort of hopes and dreams were pinned on this one. You know, half billion dollars or half trillion dollar startup coming through with 1.4 trillion in commitments over the next handful of years. And I think that you know, be ever since that sort of took hold over the last couple of months, the thing that has been propping up the market for three years since the cutting cycle began, which is AI enthusiasm, has not had the power to, to make people overlook all of the utter shittiness that has underlied the market for the rest. We've been in this K shaped sort of market for a very long time and now the, the bottom of that K is dragging the rest of it down. And so the question becomes if, when you have that broader context, is Bitcoin responding just a little bit more aggressively than other risk assets as it sort of, you know, risk can't catch a break, or is it actually a leading indicator of where people are headed? And I think that's the even scarier one frankly if you're, if you're, that's.
Michael Saylor
The scary part is if you buy the tip of the risk spear argument and you can even make the further argument down that rabbit hole, that microstrategy itself was the tip of the spear to lead the Bitcoin drawdown, which is a sign for all risk assets drawing down. And so it's scary. But what's crazy, I showed it crypto fear and greed on that one I've seen as low as 6. It was saying 14 today. Stock fear and greed, 5% off the all time high is 8. Yeah, I mean this is absurdity just really amplifies the point you just made about how much uncertainty there is in markets. A lot of this having to do with non existent job data, the government shutdown. There are a lot of exogenous factors right now that are obviously playing into markets.
NLW
Yeah, and, and one thing, you know, look, we are also dealing with a macro political context where even if you love Trump, it is undeniable that any Trump administration is going to be wildly less predictable than any other type of administration. And markets don't like unpredictability. They like some of the things that come out of, of, of the, of the politics. But unpredictability is a really hard environment. And so you just have right now unpredictability stacked on volatility, stacked on, you know, changing narratives, stacked on all these other things. Also, as we talked about, you know, last week, I think we're coming up on the end of the year and there is real seasonality in traditional markets that has nothing to do with four year cycles. It just has to do with locking in profits. You know, to, to your point, we 5% off all time highs, you know, fear at 8, fear and greed at 8. That's a pretty good time to be like, I'm going to eat it on the, on the, you know, the 5% that I could have cashed in the.
Michael Saylor
Streets, you know, buy the blood, even if it's yours. I mean, been doing this for centuries in markets and when you have this extreme fear, oversold conditions all like historically, RSI has never gone this low in a sell off like this. It's been lower. I mean these are all generally bottom could be close type signals, but that bottom could be 75. Right? I mean that could happen in a day. This is bitcoin. So nothing would surprise me at this point. I can tell you that having been here a lot of times, I'm very much in the camp of I'm buying everything I can get my hands on. Right now I don't even have a portfolio tracker. The best part of the FTX collapse for me was that blockfolio went with it and I never downloaded another one. I've got Arch Public running buying the hell out of these dips algorithmically. Bought a ton this morning. I'm loving it. I literally tweeted I'm more of a panic buyer than a panic seller because none of this shakes my long term conviction. And to be quite honest, if we get to a price where my long term conviction starts to be shaken, that is the exact moment that I should sell the house to buy more bitcoin. Because if I'm at that point, it's the bottom.
NLW
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Look, I think that it is absolutely the case if we're looking for sort of optimistic things here, that the, the, the freefall is way harder for the crypto and particularly the bitcoin community than honestly the landing is. The landing is when we all shake ourselves off and Start buying like crazy. And remember that this is, this asset has the most profound and growing sort of base of people who will not sell at basically any price, who will, you know, do whatever they can to be able to start to scoop that up and build that floor. When we haven't hit that floor, it feels really hard because we just, again, it's just another leg down, another leg down. It's just, especially if you're, you know, kind of, we're all terminally online and watching it. Once we get to wherever the bottom is, it'll take us about five minutes to stop stressing about it and just start looking back in the other direction.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. Let's move on to other things that are causing a bit of uncertainty. We obviously have just in December rate cut odds spike from 27 to 70% in 24 hours after dovish Fed comments. Funny, because when I went to open this, I thought it was going to be about how far the odds were down because yesterday I was talking about 27% on the show and laughing that it had been 88% before. But seemingly now, depending on which Fed commentator or governor you listen to, which opinion you listen to, we have predictive markets literally all over the place as to the odds of a rate cut. And I do think whether it actually is fundamentally meaningful or not, this is the narrative that people are attaching their future predictions on markets to.
NLW
I've, I have never seen in any rate cutting cycle since I started paying attention, you know, with the podcast, the, the, the mass swings in expectation that there are around this one, which makes sense, right? You have a wildly divided Fed, you have, you know, new, new governors on there, you have the jockeying for Trump favor heading into, you know, the, the Powell's term ending. There's just all of these reasons that, you know, sort of from a personnel perspective, then of course you have the complete lack of data that they're running with. You have all this sort of intense political pressure. And, and it's just clear in markets, markets are, they're so back and forth to your point around what they think is going to happen. And I do agree that in the absence of other potential headwinds, they are pinning a lot of hopes on this. I think, unfortunately, anyone who thinks that even if we do get another cut it's going to be meaningful is going to be pretty disappointed. That's just it, hasn't it? The cuts have not done what markets wanted them to do in the immediate term from a price action standpoint, any, at any point this year.
Michael Saylor
All I had to do was listen to all the fiscal dominance homers. You know, Lyn Alden, nothing stops this train. A lot of people, including us on this show, have been screaming about it for a very long time that the Fed is largely neutered. That's not where the liquidity is going to come from. And every time they've cut so far, rates have gone up. Right. So the market has not believed the Fed twice. Why would they believe them for another 25 bips in December?
NLW
I do think, I do think, though, that right now the market needs psychologically to hang on to something because it no longer can hang on to Nvidia earnings. You know, I mean, look, it tried like Nvidia had a bubble killing moment for about five minutes, and then the next day it was just, Yep, so it needs something. And so listen, if. If markets want to hang on to that hope of a rate cut, even if it doesn't sort of materialize in the way that they want, I'm all for it.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I think people realize at first they were like, Nvidia, this is incredible. They're going to save markets. And then I think a day later they were like, damn, if we really need to count on Nvidia to save markets, we're really screwed.
NLW
Well, and I think that a lot of people are realizing that we've been counting on Nvidia to save markets for the last three years at this point.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, it's pretty crazy. Okay, so now it gets into the MicroStrategy FUD, JP Morgan Warren of MicroStrategy delisting risk for major equity indices.
Host
Funny, I was just reading stories a.
Michael Saylor
Day or two ago about how it was a layup that MicroStrategy was going to be added to the S and P. And now we're talking about them.
Host
Being removed from the msci, potentially the.
Michael Saylor
Qs, which they've recently been added to because the stock has performed so poorly. To put it in context, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin position is almost red. His cost basis is 74. We were at 80 this morning, so getting pretty close. Not that we haven't been here before. He was 50% underwater, I think, when it went from 30 to 17 or so. This is, as it says, 8% away from their position. Just 46 days ago, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin position was up 70%. The stock is now down 70% from its record high. Can Sailor keep buying? I love that we were asking that question last week and he put in his biggest buy in Months.
NLW
Yeah. Yeah. Sailor finds ways to buy. That's sort of the, the, the, the one thing you can set your clock by.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. I mean, so what do you think of this? Is this a FUD situation? Is this a. Oh my gosh, this could really crash Bitcoin. Should we have been looking to microstrategies collapse this entire time as that leading tip of the spear? As I mentioned before, I think it's.
NLW
A useful bellwether to sort of see what, what markets are saying about this. I would say that right now this is a random single analyst note that has gotten amplified because of the broader narratives.
Michael Saylor
Right. J.P. morgan said it. He came from, back from the grave.
NLW
J.P. morgan, this is, this is the, the sort of, the financial knowledge complex is, you know, again, random analyst says something in a note that has a logo on it. And it's really up to the market how much they want to grab onto that narrative and run with it right now. And so it's almost more interesting. It's the prediction itself or the warning itself is less interesting than how much it gets amplified by other commentators, which is really sort of, I think the, the, the tell around what markets are thinking right now.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I agree with that. And of course, you know, last week did we talk about on this show, the Titanic sinking? No. So he obviously, you know. Oh yeah, we did the Titanic sinking with him on the lifeboat and clearly he was not talking about microstrategy and bitcoin sinking, but there was some confusion. Well, now we get this one.
NLW
Oh my God.
Michael Saylor
So like we're just in the winter, our boat is iced over. We've. We're sitting on top of the iceberg this time at least instead of sinking as a result of it. Again, I feel like he's having a really good time, honestly.
NLW
I mean, he's very, he's enjoying the release of Nano Banana Pro for sure. But look, go back, go back to that image. Michael, if you are listening, he looks like a need an AI image. You need an image consultant because look at these guys shooting daggers at him for leading them into this horrifying situation. Look at it.
Michael Saylor
Those guys are not planning to endure. They're planning.
NLW
No, they're about to eat him. They're about to eat him and use his sweater to bird a fire.
Host
Man, I love this guy.
Michael Saylor
I really do. But man, like I, I think. It's not like he knows exactly what he's doing. This is trolling like the critics of the last one. You don't post another boat after all of the boat Drama. But yeah. Yeah, those guys aren't like celebrating and coming up with a plan to help him get the boat off the island. No. Oh, man. But he looks tough. He looks good.
NLW
He. I mean, yeah, he's. He's very AI able. It turns out I really like like sailor's face a lot.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I mean they look accurate. You do my face and I look like a. Some kind of weird alien. I don't know. Maybe I just looks like some kind of weird alien. Anyways, Crypto exchange Kraken confidentially files for US ipo. So this is some bullish news, right? I mean a $20 billion valuation here. Still clearly a thirst for public offerings of crypt. Crypto infrastructure and exchanges in the market.
NLW
Yeah, so my, my sense is funny because I. Last week they, you know, they had the, the fundraise and they were very circumspect. They're like we're not going to race to. To IPO or anything. And then five minutes later that they. They file this. But look, it. It makes sense. They missed the, the, this window this summer. The. The IPO window. And I think that they were smart enough to know that there was not a chance so they weren't going to rush it know with that. But what I think is happening now is I would not anticipate them going public into a bad market. I think that they are going to have everything ready so that the second there is a glimmer and it feels like that window opens up again, they can be the circle of this IPO cycle that sort of kicks things off. Or maybe that it was the etor. What? Whichever one you want to choose.
Michael Saylor
Right.
NLW
One of those very first. That sort of signals to everyone that things are back up and running again. Look, they just raised $800 million. They've got a healthy balance sheet. It's not like they, they have plenty of money to weather whatever comes next. They're just positioning my estimation for to be the first to move when it's the right time again.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I think that they know exactly what they're doing and they're not going to learn the lessons of altcoins past of launching directly into a bear market and hoping for the best.
NLW
Yeah, I don't think that's the play.
Michael Saylor
Oh. Oh my God. You know what? I want to skip ahead. It's not the next story. But that's just too good of a segue to what's happening right now here. Monad ICO on Coinbase fizzles 12 hours after launch. I mean outside of Maybe Mega Eth. And what was that one? Barachain. But certainly for this year, Monad is the most hyped token launch of the year. And then they got it on Coinbase as their first launch on that platform. Platform. There were some early interest, but they ended up not even being able to raise the total amount that they were looking for. So speaking of launching a Altcoin sort of ICO right into the depths of a bear market, which to their credit, they couldn't have anticipated. They had to plan this.
NLW
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think there's a. There's a couple, couple things going on here. The first is if you want to take the sort of bleary, blurry review, which I think is important in this case, retail is just. There is no retail. It's just us chickens who've been here the whole time, you know, so we're just circulating money around and none of us have any goddamn money right now. So what do we expect?
Michael Saylor
You know?
NLW
So I think that that is meaningfully a part of it, is that there wasn't. There wasn't a new set of excited Coinbase users that joined for the first time. And, you know, Monad was part of their early experience in the way that, you know, Solana was a couple cycles ago or whatever, for, for some new newbies coming in. And so there was, you know, this is sort of feeling, I think, a lack of that, that base of new excitement and new capital. The other part, and this is a more sort of me, you know, parroting other people's analysis that I thought was interesting is, you know, the, the, the corollary to that is that the people who are here maybe wouldn't want to do this in a Coinbase way.
Michael Saylor
Right?
NLW
Like that there may be a misalignment between the Coinbase ICO platform and, and the people who are still around who want to do token sales now, people may want to just buy directly and you know what I mean, it's a more sophisticated buyer that's still here. And so all the things that Coinbase does to make it easy come with a bunch of costs that that group of people doesn't want to have. You know, there was also questions of, you know, like the dis. The amount that was going to. Through the ICO, as opposed to the amount held by 5%. There's all these, all these sort of structural questions. My instinct is that it's a combination of all these things. But look, you know, Coinbase, my strong prediction is that Coinbase is going to persevere they're going to keep pushing these things out. They're going to, you know, normalizing this and, and it'll be what it's going to be.
Michael Saylor
If this was even like a month ago and there were some altcoins ripping and BNB whenever that was, and BNB was up over a thousand and stuff, I think this would be very successful. I think these are constant reminders that if bitcoin's down, nothing good's happening. You can push as hard as you want. They could literally have Tupac and, and Biggie coming back from the dead to do a launch concert from onad, and this thing would probably be falling flat right now in this market. Yeah. All right, so onto the next story here. Abu Dhabi Fund tripled bitcoin bet in months before crypto cash. The Abu Dhabi Investment Council increased its holding in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF to almost 8 million shares as of September 30, worth about, about 518 million at the time. We're going to need to adjust that number. But we do have sovereign wealth funds buying bitcoin.
NLW
Yeah, there's, look, there's still a lot like, you know, we're in sort of like the bleariest part of the analysis cycle, but there's still tons and tons of tailwinds. And, you know, we got a couple different institutional buys. We got Harvard increasing their allotment. We got the Abu Dhabi 7 Wealth Fund. So, you know, I, I think that these, these players are playing a longer game. And, you know, this, this is not gonna chase them off.
Michael Saylor
Do you think that there are a lot of institutions out there, sovereign wealth funds, big walls of money that are just looking at the price action right now and salivating? Let me ask you guys a better question. Do you think there's more of them salivating or more of them saying this was a scam and I'm out?
NLW
They're definitely. I don't think that any of them are saying this is a scam and I'm out. I don't think that that's. I think that. I think that we radically overestimate the amount that these guys think about us is sort of my feeling. And so the folks that are the advocates internally that have been pushing for, for, for it for a while, I do think that it is more likely the competing forces that you're going to have are some sort of, you know, less extreme version of what you just described, where you're going to have some advocates internally who are saying We've been waiting for a good entry price and is, you know, it's looking good now because, you know, their peers didn't want to get in when it was, you know, 120,000 in, in nosebleed territory. I think that those folks are beating the drum right now saying let's, let's do this thing. But then there are others, you know, who don't want to get into Bitcoin, who think that, you know, who have never changed their feeling that it's a scam. And my guess is that there are those debates raging all over the place right now. And it's just a question of, you know, look, the, the companies that get over themselves and go with the, the, the, the folks who think that it's a good entry price, I think are going to be rewarded.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I agree with that 100%. I think more likely they're going to be excited to buy at a much lower price than, let's say, all of the treasury companies who went all in at the dead top.
NLW
Yep, exactly, man.
Michael Saylor
What has happened? What. It's not one of our stories, but what is going to happen there? I mean, even the biggest ones, you know, like Ford Industries, I remember for Solana, which. Great. Didn't they buy all of it at 222 30? Yeah. I mean, with no dry powder to.
Host
Buy anymore, like, at least you can.
Michael Saylor
Look at Michael Saylor and Tom Lee and say they're good enough at financial engineering to continue to buy the dip at better prices like you would want to as an individual. What we got was a bunch of treasury companies who felt like it was their mandate to have no cash on the balance sheet. So they just went all in and it was the worst time.
NLW
Yeah, I mean, you know, it all, their future is going to be basically determined by how, how long sustained and deep the drop is. And, and we'll see from there. But you know, it's, it's, this is a, I think we mentioned this a couple shows ago. One of the things that makes crypto weird is that our startups fail in public because they're dealing with assets that everyone else can buy right away. And so startup themes that explode, where you go from 100 companies doing a thing to two, it all happens live in a, in a much more vicious way. Whereas sort of, you know, when you're, when you're talking about private, private companies in different startup sectors, they just sort of fade away and you just hear about them in a little. People quietly change their LinkedIn and move on with their lives and then they resurface a year later doing something else very different for us. They, we, when we fail, we fail spectacularly and publicly.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. And I guess this is the last story we had tagged for this. Rep. Warren Davidson introduces the Bitcoin for America act, which would allow basically Americans to pay their taxes immediately. Bitcoin, which would be a budget neutral way, I guess, of adding to the strategic bitcoin reserve. I'm not sure if you can call it budget neutral as they are, because that would be taxes that aren't coming in in dollars that we need to fund the government. But hey, I'm here for it. And I think that, listen, we didn't even discuss them, but there's a lot of things that happened in the government this week. The SEC is saying that crypto is not even on their 2026 agenda list. Selig or Celig, you know, potentially being. The Senate has to vote him in, but CFTC chairman, we know there's been a lot of things. Right. And so I think this is just one more in a long line of pro bitcoin things happening in the United States government.
NLW
Yep, absolutely. I mean, I, I think, I think it's interesting that he chose now to, to, to release this. We'll see where it goes. You know, a lot of bills get introduced to just sort of shape the conversation. This has a little bit of the feel for that. But, you know, maybe, maybe he thinks there's momentum that we're not seeing.
Michael Saylor
Yeah, I don't think it passes, but I think it's great press. I think that the, you know, the actual strategic bitcoin reserve has to pass before we can pass a bill that allows us to add to the strategic bitcoin reserve.
NLW
Yes, yes, indeed. That is, I think, the technical sequence that it would need to follow.
Michael Saylor
Anything else exciting? I mean, should we start a poly market? On what boat related theme Michael Saylor will meme next. I don't know.
NLW
I think that at some point soon we're going to start remembering that we're actually better at pain than other people are and we'll start to feel better. For now, it's just kind of gloomy. You know, each, each week it's been lower than the week before when we talked about it. And it's never fun to be in that moment. But, you know, Thanksgiving's coming, the holidays are coming. There'll be other things to compete for our attention, hopefully, and, and we'll just see where things go.
Michael Saylor
Yeah. At my old gym, there was a big sign. Everybody knows the no pain, no gain, right? But it was spelled at the gym. K, N O W. So know your pain.
NLW
Yeah.
Michael Saylor
And then you can know your gain. And I really like that because it really suits us exceptionally well because we've known the pain before and we know what comes next. I have extremely high conviction, no matter how long we stay down or what's going to happen, that eventually this will trade much, much higher and I will be happy that I went ahead and bought. The last thing I want to do is not buy here because I'm waiting for 75, then it hits 77, then I buy at 125.
NLW
There you go.
Michael Saylor
That's.
NLW
That is, that is that will be the true pain.
Michael Saylor
I would. I would much rather just go ahead and buy it here at 85 and call it a day. All right, guys, that's all we got for you here on the Friday 5. Please check out NLW on X everywhere else, especially the breakdown, because it is the best daily podcast that we have in this space and everybody's cheat sheet for what's going on in the market, man. So thank you for that and I'll see you next week. Well, maybe not, I don't know. Thanksgiving. No, probably not to talk about that. Probably not. Going to see you guys next week. Thursday and Friday. I'll be off. All right, man. See you soon.
Host
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Host: Scott Melker
Episode: Bitcoin PANIC At $80K Amid Mass Market Sell Off! Where's the Bottom?
Date: November 21, 2025
In this episode, Scott Melker (“The Wolf”) is joined by Michael Saylor and NLW for a lively and candid Friday 5 roundtable. The trio dives into the historic Bitcoin plunge below $80,000, exploring what it means for Bitcoin, the crypto market, and institutional investors amid mounting macro and political turbulence. With the familiar banter and sharp wit the show is known for, they dissect price action, investor sentiment, ETF flows, institutional buys, meme-worthy Michael Saylor moments, token launches gone bust, and what the future might hold for both pain-hardened hodlers and newcomers alike.
Treasury Companies’ Plight (25:40–27:06):
Discussion on companies that FOMO’d into Bitcoin at the top and now face tough decisions:
“What we got was a bunch of treasury companies who felt like it was their mandate to have no cash on the balance sheet. So they just went all in and it was the worst time.” — Michael Saylor (26:00)
US Policy & Bitcoin for America Act (27:06–28:23):
Rep. Warren Davidson’s proposed bill would allow Americans to pay taxes in Bitcoin.
“I don’t think it passes, but I think it's great press.” — Michael Saylor (28:10)
Broader conversation on growing (if incremental) pro-Bitcoin policy trends, but also SEC indifference and regulatory churn.
Macro Confusion:
“We feel unmoored in addition to sad about the price... We're flying without a rudder.”
— NLW (02:11–03:38)
Institutional Cynicism:
“You can't have it both ways that we're in this new paradigm where... we're tethered to... traditional markets in a different way and also we should expect these same massive drawdowns.”
— NLW (05:18)
Conviction in Chaos:
“If we get to a price where my long term conviction starts to be shaken, that is the exact moment that I should sell the house to buy more bitcoin.”
— Michael Saylor (10:15)
On Saylor Memes:
“They're about to eat him and use his sweater to start a fire.”
— NLW (18:11)
On Market Pain vs. Gain:
“KNOW your pain. And then you can know your gain... We’ve known the pain before and we know what comes next.”
— Michael Saylor (29:01)
On Altcoin Launches in Bear Markets:
“You can push as hard as you want. They could literally have Tupac and Biggie coming back from the dead to do a launch concert for Monad — and this thing would probably be falling flat right now in this market.”
— Michael Saylor (22:53)
This episode is a must-listen if you’re navigating the emotional and financial turbulence of this Bitcoin drawdown. It offers not just analysis, but insight into how seasoned market participants rationalize, meme, and ultimately manage through periods of panic.