Loading summary
Transcript1 lines
- [00:01]
A
Bitcoin plummeting back below $62,000 as Arthur Hayes and seemingly everybody else is dumping their zcash after an exploit was noticed that could have allowed people to effectively print zcash unnoticed for the last four years. Crypto's awesome. Let's go. Let's do. Good morning Wolf Pack and welcome to the show. It's another happy day here in sunny Tampa, Florida. We got the Monaco Grand Prix this week. In honor of that, I have a Formula One car behind me. That's the McLaren car. You guys probably know that I'm a McLaren fan as a result of having been a global brand ambassador for OKX for all those years. OKX is amazing by the way. It's where I actually trade here in the United States. I don't think people have realized that they're fully back in the United States. Currently setting up my algos on arch public over there with them but long standing relationship. They made me a huge McLaren fan. They made me a huge OKX fan. So today we ride. That's the car going back and forth behind me. We don't have motion on it, so I'm giving it the motion. Oh, guys, Friday is the day when I get to be completely unhinged. I get to rant and rave. I get to not be prepared at all for the show. And then I take whatever might be of any quality and I form that into the Daily Wolf later on Yahoo. If you haven't been watching the Daily Wolf on Yahoo, shame on you. But you still have a chance. You still have a chance. I'm going to be honest. The numbers are. Numbers are huge. Biggest numbers, best numbers. It's been wildly popular. We're really excited about it, to be quite honest, and it's great. But let's talk about what's happening in the market here. Bitcoin in danger of dropping to 60. It's like it's there. 61, 60 with Zcash bulls turning their backs on Z E C at Zcash. So of course you know, we got him in the title. I put them in here. It's funny, Arthur, you know, the holy Trinity's dead. Sadly, due to the Orchard pool exploit, I had to dump our entire zcash bag. So while I think it's extremely unlikely of any minting, it cannot be formally cryptographically proved otherwise. So the dive into what's actually happening with the story here. Oh, that's not what I want. Oh, that's not what I want. Oh, none of those are what I want. Shut up. We don't have the story. The story is zcash, which has been very highly hyped and pushed across the board for the narrative, narrative of privacy, which I. Which I deeply respect and think is great, was trading exceptionally high. And then apparently, like some of the founders, I know that guy Zuko, they wrote something that basically said the Orchard protocol, which is part of. Part of, part of the protocol, had a hidden exploit that Claude 4.8 or 5.9 or 7 point. What cloud are we on? 4.8. Claude 4.8 discovered this exploit. They patched it very quickly. To their credit, I think this is an exceptionally hard working team. I think that software is going to have exploits. But in this case, the best quality of zcash, its privacy was also unfortunately, its worst quality, because even though they've patched it, they cannot prove cryptographically that nobody has been slowly, fastly, bigly printing zcash for the past four years. So there could be a whole lot of fake zcash out there on the market that is being sold. And so people, I think are rightfully terrified that bad things guan on. I speak patois. Bad things guan on. Jamaican, not Jamaican. So I have been a. Not a privacy skeptic. Not a Z cash specifically, but the price action of zcash, you can remember that I've been highly skeptical of this entire time. I actually went on a Coinbase interview last week and they asked me about it and I said it seemed like a lot of very big personalities. I was trying to get my hands even jumped on to zcash at roughly the same time. Right. And so I'm not saying it was like a coordinated pump and dump or anything. I think it's just when something catches wind, you know, and starts to catch some momentum, it goes up, maybe gets a bit out over its skis. And then they asked me about this, which was the narrative that, you know, zcash was a more secret version of Bitcoin. It was a better bitcoin. We started seeing these stories and people started saying. She was like, what do you think about that? And I was like, it makes me want to puke. Right. That's absolute nonsense. You can be great at privacy without being a new bitcoin. There will be no new bitcoin. Well, not trying to take a victory lap here or anything. I think zcash will probably recover. It's probably fine. Maybe it wasn't exploited. I have no idea. But yeah, I was a skeptic and I still not buy it now. I think Cameron Winklevoss has a very measured and reasonable take if we're going to look at both sides where he says it has unparalleled cryptographers, security engineers, security researchers, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. All the things basically saying they're building great software, they patched it fast, they did a great job. But I think this like kind of just shows us where the puck is headed, right? I mean we've got like a defi exploit every 36 hours on average, right? We've had huge ones in Kelpdao and Drift and all these. We had the massive, obviously hack last year, Bybit. We still have a hacking problem, we still have an exploit problem and it's accelerated with AI. Now, I think the positive view of that is that if the black hats and hackers can use AI to exploit things, well, soak in the white hats and the people who are building security, they can use AI for better security. So whether it was human versus human or AI versus AI doesn't really change much, right? But clearly we know that this is software. And the problem is this is software that's controlling what many people view as money, right? So like can't really like move fast and break things and you can't really make mistakes when people's money is on the line. So now, yeah, now we got Zcash. Zcrash. It's down bad, know, over 50% in a day. What I find actually really interesting, not, you know, is that I actually went on Twitter. I don't, you know, guys, I don't do many charting things anymore because, like, what's the upside? But I went on X when it was right here and I said there was the most massive bearish divergence I've ever seen with massively overbought conditions right here. I mean, RSI was at. Was that 81, 91, 91 almost. Well, maybe, you know, 89, 90, something like that with massive bears divergence. I said it's over for zcash. Like this chart, regardless of any news, says like, chill out now. You have a massive head and shoulders breakdown. Right? But that was the very top. I tweeted about it. I said I'd be really cautious. Funny when these things end up being in the chart as well, right? The chart was way ahead of the news on that one. So that's zcash. We got a whole lot of Sailor Fud going on. I'm having trouble unpacking the Sailor Fud, to be honest. So Saylor's bitcoin machine is misfiring on every cylinder. I think that's an overstatement. That said, I think that right now, regardless whether you sold bitcoin or not, I think there's a lot of justified question marks in the market as to what his ability to buy bitcoin will be moving forward. So I don't think it's gonna blow up. I don't think that STRC trading below par. Let's see where STRC is now. 95.42 bounce from yesterday. So, you know, it's supposed to trade at 100, it's trading at 95.42. Many people who don't understand preferred offerings think that that means it's over. These things can trade below par for ages. But what it does mean, and eventually they'll just raise the dividend and it'll come back to par. But what it does mean is that if this thing doesn't go back to 100, sailor can't use it to buy bitcoin. Right. I talked about this Matt Hogan yesterday. So if STRC can't do it, if MSTR is trading below net asset value, that makes it very hard to do it. So there's a lot of reasons to believe that he may have some trouble buying bitcoin moving forward in size. To me, that's the bigger concern because it seems like he's the only person on planet Earth who wants to buy bitcoin that's not named me. I bought. You bought some bitcoin, right, John? You bought bitcoin? Yeah, we bought some bitcoin. We buy bitcoin over here. Probably glad I don't pay you guys in bitcoin though, to be honest. But, you know, I think that that's a legitimate concern as to whether Saylor is going to be able to continue to buy this beloved token of ours that we call the Corns. So I think these are the two big narratives in the market, obviously zcrash and Bitcoin and surrounding Saylor. But the real story, and this is going to continue to be the story, I think, is where is all the liquidity going to come from for. For SpaceX and such. Right. And I do think that's. I think I was one of the first on that narrative. I did a whole Daily Wolf on it. I also did a whole Daily Wolf on why I think bitcoin could be bottoming a couple days ago. You should watch that. But, you know, Alex Becker has a pretty good take here on this. You know, he says trillion IPOs for companies losing billions at 100x revenue laws changing to force them into 401ks. This shit, dude, we're heading toward something dark. So one of the stories is that the SEC there has eliminated that 25. I thought, here it is. That eliminates pattern day trading rule, opening the floodgates for real. Retail traders used to have a minimum, have to have a minimum 25,000 in a day to be able to day trade. They got rid of that. Now if you've been listening, okay, listen, the libertarian in me says let the people gamble. You know, do whatever you want, it's your money. But like the common sense sensical non idiot in me says that we are at the end times with the amount of speculation and the amount of ability to speculate that is now here. Like I said, go ahead and speculate. But the amount of people that want to speculate right now on different things like prediction markets and hyper liquid and IPOs and you can now trade those IPOs in advance on Hyper Liquid, right? And now on Coinbase, I think was announced today, actually think you can trade. I think I saw that you're able to trade these on there. Yeah, pretty crazy. Like the times in history when you've seen speculation reach peaks like this is when people don't believe in their money, when hyperinflation's about to set in, when they don't feel like they can get ahead and they're on the hamster wheel and the track is running away ahead of them. That's when people gamble on everything because they have nothing to lose and think that they need to get rich quick or hit it big to have a chance just to survive. So yeah, sure, get rid of the 25,000, but you already have people that are speculating in size on IPOs that haven't even launched yet and they're wildly mispriced. I think Hyper liquid, when we looked before it was like 167, I think has SpaceX. Well, SpaceX is supposed to come out at $135 a share, so you already got a $30ish 30 to $40 depending on the moment gap, how it's being priced pre IPO and how it's expected to launch at that 1.7-ish trillion dollar valuation. So yeah, I don't know man. I don't think that you need to be speculating on something that hasn't happened yet. I mean you think about it like on Hyper Liquid you're speculating, you're trading an asset which is pre IPO SpaceX shares, right? But you're trading Them where there's actually no underlying asset, just guessing on the price. There's no stock there to claim, and it doesn't exist yet. It's a good time. Good time. It's pretty crazy. Pretty crazy. The world that we're in right now. And then you have things like this. I mean, I just saw this come up. This is pretty exciting. Like, for those who think that we should not be doing dumb things for money. Introducing pump fund. Go pay anyone to do anything. Create and complete bounties for any task and leverage the power of humans and money across the globe. The world is at your fingertips. It's time to go. So if you're wondering, here are some of the markets. 56,971 to skydive into a World cup match. 24, 539 to interview Harry. Oh, God. 3,000 to quit your job live on camera. I quit. Just made $3,000. I did it. Is it. I did it. 3700 to host a best but spelled wrong contest. 2762 to get a tattoo on the forehead. What if you just get a dot tattooed on your forehead that's worth $22,762. But, guys, I mean, we have gone. First of all, I'm old enough to remember bum fights. I don't know if you guys ever remember that. Which is the worst. And this is, like, bum fights for everyone. For people who may have missed bum fights. Bum fights when they used to, like, give a guy, like, 20 bucks to homeless guys to fight each other, and they would record it in the pre. I think it was kind of pre Internet days. But, guys, I mean, this is. We are living in a time of mass insanity. This is crazy. And I'm not saying that Mike McGlone's right, but there's a massive flush coming at some point. I mean. Yeah, exactly. I mean, the question how are these contracts enforceable? Probably not, but apparently poly market contracts are not really enforceable either. I mean, if you bet on strategy, selling Bitcoin before May 31, you lost. Because they announced it in June, even though they sold it in May. Does not work. Ah, God. You got it. The world is becoming sick and embarrassing. Always was, buddy. You can just see it on the Internet now. That's the difference. It was always just as sick as embarrassing. You just could. Didn't have a camera. Like, listen, like, if. If I had a camera phone in college, probably wouldn't be here today. You know, like, think about all of us from the 80s and 90s, all the wild Things we did. If somebody was recording that at all times and putting it on social media for a future employer to vet, I don't think we would have made it. I don't think we would have made it. There's another story here that I'll definitely be super covering. Yeah, Bump fights and Girls Gone Wild. I always reference Girls Gone Wild too. Time to be alive. This is interesting. JP Morgan, bank of America, Citi to start blockchain offensive with shared tokenized network. American's biggest banks plan to introduce a shared tokenized network next year to tackle the potential threat of stablecoins eating into their deposits. Remember when Jamie Dimon was on TV and he was like, we're gonna fight this. Brian Armstrong's full of shit. I said shit on tv. Remember when south park first said shit on tv and then all of a sudden you could say shit on TV shit. That shit was awesome. But yeah, so like, their position. First of all, this is not an offensive. This is a defensive. Let's get our vernacular correct here. Coin desk. And this doesn't replace stablecoins, it replaces the plumbing. So it's basically like them saying, hey, your deposits that earn 0% yield will now earn 0% yield on a faster network for us to move money around. It's absolutely absurd. This will probably work for them though, and will probably reduce the dependency of the banks on stablecoins. But it's not going to stop stablecoins at all and it's not going to stop stablecoins yields at all. But clearly the biggest players up in the game right now, in this game we call finance, are trying to compete with stablecoins. There's so little to talk about. I don't know how I'm going to do the daily wealth today. Make stuff up. Wow. Zcash went all the way down to 246 at some point. I'm looking at the chart. You guys aren't. Man, this is the thing, man. It's like we. There was. I'm not cheering against zcash. I thought the chart looked bad. But like, we had like one thing. It was working. We had a narrative. See cash, yes. Privacy, it matters. And of course that had to break. The amount of own goals that we score in this industry is absolutely astounding. And I think that this is why we can't have nice things. I mean, we were having that little alt season. I showed you guys Bitcoin dominance was dumping while bitcoin was going down. You don't usually see that without Ethereum outperforming. Bitcoin got hyper liquid and zcash and deer and all these things. And all it takes is for Arthur Hayes to be like, yeah, I don't want to do this. Everyone's like, it's over. Right? So our little alt season there was obviously like a very temporary fake out probably. And now I would imagine if bitcoin continues to dump that we're going to probably have a lot of problems in the altcoin space. That said, I think bitcoin's starting to bottom here. I show you. Let me. Let me do a chart. I got a chart here. Okay, let's do a chart. This is unplanned, like everything in my life. 4 hour chart right there. So you guys know my favorite indicator is bullish divergence with oversold RSI starting on the four hour chart. That builds a four hour chart, building massive bullish divergence here on bitcoin that I like. Now we can get rid of those because they look dumb on the daily chart. So daily chart is currently oversold at. Oh, I can't read that because of my eyes think. But 16, 16, that's as low now as the lows in February going back. I think we only were lower one other time ever, and that was 2020. And it was like, yeah, look. And it's this much lower. Oh, no. If you keep going back, it gets lower. But since 2020, we're at the lows, and we're as low as Covid. Okay. Do you think that whatever's happening in crypto right now justifies being as low as the depths of the COVID crash? Or do you think that maybe this is a little bit overblown right now? And then take a look at the weekly chart. This is a good time. I like this. Okay, I'm gonna. I'm just doing this stuff in real time, guys. This is live tv. Never know what he's gonna do, what he's gonna say. Okay, this is the weekly chart. Let's look at RSI oversold here. That's 2015. Depths of the bear market at the lows. Oversold one time, round two, second time Bitcoin was ever oversold. That's right there in 2018. Depths of the bear market right there at the lows. Bitcoin was oversold one more time. It's only been three times until the fourth one in this cycle. Right here probably would have been the bottom, but then FTX happened. But you got massive bullish divergence, which is this higher low in RSI coming out of oversold on the weekly and clearly a lower low in price. Right. And then now let's zoom in. We hit oversold for the fourth time in history on the weekly which has been the bottom of the the previous three cycles every time. And listen, I haven't been a cycle believer guy this time, but maybe I'm wrong because you know, people say things are wrong. Happens. We have a higher low right now in rsi. Like much higher. Like price could go way lower and still confirm this by the way. And a lower low on price if the weekly closes here or below. So we have the fourth oversold ever in weekly RSI and a higher low forming which would give us bullish divergence, which is exactly what happened on the FTX bottom. Now one more little thing to take a little gander at on almost any asset in history. I believe Charlie Munger even once said, I'm going to look this up. I don't want to misquote the dead guy. Rest in peace, newly dead Charlie Munger who called us rat poison. But Charlie Munger's a legendary. I think he said this, but I'm not. He said I'll quote. He said it's famously stated that if an investor buys high quality stocks whenever they pull back to their 200 week moving average, they will beat the market by a large margin over time. Okay, so this is not just unique to bitcoin. For the record, let's take a Look. Okay, the first bear market, bottom 200 ma tapped it there, broke below it with like a couple of little wicks but never closed below. Right here. 200 Ma tapped right here. It broke below but you'll see it closed slightly below and was immediately back on top the other week. So until 2020 it had never actually broken below and stayed there. 2022 except. Excuse me. So in 2022, right here, block below and stayed there for basically nine months. Retested and went up well. Right. Testing the 200 MA, which has happened every single. I tweeted this in November when Bitcoin was 105. I said we've broken the 50mA. We visited the 200mA every time it's at 55K. Well it's risen since then. It was at 55 here. Now it's up to 62. We are on it. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner, buy stuff at the 200 weekly moving average. You will outperform the market by a large margin over time. So even if we go down here for nine months, do you think that the 200 ma is probably a good buy long term. If bitcoin is not going to zero. Yes. The answer is yes, you dumbass. You didn't know that? Hey, the weekly has some room to drop. That's right. So it could break the 200mA. It could still actually make that bullish divergence. We could not make the bullish divergence and we'd still have historically low rsi. I'm just saying this is the signs that a bottom is forming, not that the bottom is in. But you can either listen to everybody panicking and having a freak out because they're, you know, time a month, they have their man periods because they're all men, or you can be sensible and say this is probably a really good price. If I think that bitcoin ever goes back up higher. Yeah, price is known to dip under the 200. I made it bounce back up. Yeah, I showed you guys that. Those wicks below. I'm not saying it stops here. I'm saying we're in the area. The process. Good times. Is there anything else you guys want to talk about? Got anything you need to know? I can. I have my contacts in and I can't read. Trump once said, fuck your portfolio. I don't think that's true. Funny though, you guys in the comments, anybody you know? Ama. What up, Scott? Nothing. Shallow bounce will take us lower, Scott. Yeah, yeah. For those. I'm not sure what this was referring to, but yeah, Hayes was on my show a couple weeks ago and he was like, you could buy zcash right now. And I was kind of like, yeah, I don't know, man. Probably end up being your exit liquidity. Well, it would have been his exit liquidity way higher. Last time I ended a question, asked a question. You ended the stream. Oh, you're that annoying person. I remember you. I don't know what this says. Scotty didn't know. Insta did. Who's your majma? I don't know what that means. Provocative. Yes. We. Oh. Chart request show to Solana. Now. Let me look at Solana. It's like the old days in here. You know that this is all my YouTube channel was. Was doing charts. Remember that? And then you realize that charts don't really tell you that much. And people get really mad when your charts are out. You're like, it's just a chart, bro. Asana looks pretty bad. Let me bring it up. Only my eyes would work. I need to get an icheotomy or something. People are like, get Lasik. I'm like, you don't do. Can't do that at 50. I would say that if it closes above whatever this line is, then it's probably party time. I need some eye drops. The eye drops that fix your eye drops. Even my actual eye drops don't work. Dry eyes. I mean this is also making a potential weekly bullish divergence. And it's going to because it's any closed below like the 80s. Right. Because you don't use the wicks and it's probably sweeping this low if it closes above that. Dude. I think the bottom's in for Solana. Cool. Right? Cool. I think it or at least bottoms in until it goes back up into here. You know the hundred somethings. Like I can't read that. Thank you. I've got a guy in my ear who reads for me. Yeah, I mean it looks fine. I think everything looks like they're probably in pretty good values here. I still have Solana, but gas fee fees 6647 says Seoul without meme poop chaos is worth $24. You know I think that was true but I'd push back on that. You have like Western Union using Solana stable coins and others. I think there's a big narrative for Solana. So. Yeah. Yeah, guys, it's all I got. I can't. I can't read good. Having trouble seeing the charts over there. I've had a great week with you guys though and I highly suggest you watch the Daily Wolf today. But otherwise we'll be back on Monday for Macro Monday. I do have some news actually. James Lavish will no longer be joining us on Macro Monday. He hates us. I'm just kidding. He's not. He's gonna do it occasionally, but he's sick of waking up at 5 o' clock in the morning first thing on Monday and I. I feel him sell your zcash to buy new eyes. If only you told me that yesterday. Now I have to sell my eyes to buy more ZCat. I guess now you know I'm gonna have to suffer eye problems for the rest of my life. All right, guys. All I got out of here been real. Okay? X. That's dope. That's dope.