← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin Plunges Towards $100K As The Stock Sell Off Begins! More Pain Ahead?
00:58:17
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- [00:00]
A
Bitcoin plunges towards a hundred thousand American dollars, a level that it's been trading above for many, many months. And this time stocks seem to also be rolling over. Is this the beginning of a bear market or is this a massive buying opportunity? If you take a look at the fundamentals, they've never been stronger. You take a look at the news, it's never been stronger. But we still remain here in extreme fear. I'm going to discuss it all with Tillman and Andrew right now. Let's go.
- [00:32]
B
Let's do. Let's do.
- [00:47]
A
Good morning esteemed milkers of the wolf pack and welcome to the abysmal bare market that will obviously last three to four years as the cycle continues into the plunge. No, I'm just kidding, kidding. I do not believe that we have actually reached the depths of a bear market, but judging by the comments on my tweets, you would think that we've been in the bear market here for years. Usually to me that's a pretty good signal that things are about to reverse. There is a lot of depression and fear in the market. I think probably a lot of that is because all coins look like stir fried and we did have the worst liquidation event ever. And now there's rumors that I'm going to remain as rumors that certain market makers might be blowing up and are being forced to sell and blah, blah, blah, blah. But here we are. How many days, Andrew?
- [01:37]
C
Roughly above 100K, 100, 175 and. And just like every other dip, you know, there's panic in the streets and in the streets. I mean on crypto, Twitter, all streets. Yeah, it says predictable as anything else. Right. Like I'm seeing tweets that sailor could be in trouble. There are particular having problems, you know, sailors, you know, selling additional equity. It's just, it's all the same stuff, just recycled and it'll. This too shall pass, as it always does. Oh, by the way, BlackRock just launched its Bitcoin ETF in Australia. So they don't seem to be affected. They just move along as if. So yeah, it is a typical, typical crypto Twitter narratives where they're looking for the next catalyst to the downside so they can somehow be right and point to a tweet where they were right or reply guys can somehow be vindicated finally. So yeah, it's, it's all predictable. All of us on this call have seen it, you know, a dozen times before over the last five to seven years. Yeah, it's typical. Typical of even the smallest downdraft brilliant.
- [03:08]
B
I think the market, the market is, is extracting weak bitcoin holders. That's really what this is all about. If you look at the amount of shorts that are open right now, it's insane. I mean it's billions and billions of dollars that are now piling in that we're going below 100. The narrative's been set. Everybody knows what the market's going to do. That's exactly what we were saying when it crested 126 this last time. We're going to 135. Everybody's bullish, everybody's 18 billion long, you know, margin, you know, positions. That's exactly what's happening on the downside right now. And to me the thing to take notice is how good they are at getting us to believe the, the doom and the gloom. You know what I mean? It's like every single time they do something with the market, one way or another, it's like we forgot what we own. And it's really, it's mind boggling to me and I just think it's a way for them to create a sentiment that is very broad and very deep and that capital and the margin attached to it gets liquidated very quickly. It wouldn't surprise me if we see a spike up before 100. It wouldn't surprise me if it does what everyone thinks it won't do. Because you know, the guys like James Wynn and everybody on crypto Twitter is like, know, we're going to 87. We're going, you know, okay, well we may, but you know, to think that you guys have a crystal ball. That's what you guys said when we, when we were at 126 and you said we were going to 135. I just look at this as a healthy consolidation. And you know, Scott, you pulled up a chart before we went on air about it touching its 50 day moving average.
- [04:53]
A
I mean.
- [04:55]
B
Looks like kind of textbook 50 weeks.
- [04:58]
A
Yeah, yeah. So, yeah, I mean, this is, so this is going to be my point. So we're about to finally hit oversold on daily rsi. Hasn't happened yet, but we've seen oversold on most time frames. We have extreme fear, to my knowledge, on fear and greed, at what some would argue is the strongest support. Now something can't be support unless support is tested. So you can't get max bearish at support. You can get max bearish if we see a weekly close strongly below that blue line. But as you can see here, we haven't been below it. Since, you know, April 23rd broke above, it's had three tests. Every one of those has a wick dipping below it and then obviously closes the week back above. Now, I will say on the bearish side, if you're, if you're scared, if you zoom back, every time the 50s lost, we touch the 200, right. So every time 50's lost comes back down. That's at 55K. I don't think anybody reasonably thinks we're going to 55K right now. My two scenarios right now, you know, would be like either we bottom right here at this thing and shoot up or, which is what I want because I'm running certain algorithms with certain company that I want to buy as cheap of bitcoin as possible. I won't name names. I wouldn't want to shill. Is that like we get a, a wick down below 100? Because I think if we go below 100, even temporarily, that's going to send the fear and panic and it's all over sentiment into overdrive and then we bounce back close above and onward and upward.
- [06:25]
C
I, I, I picked up my daily RSI from the pharmacy yesterday.
- [06:30]
A
Yeah.
- [06:31]
C
And you're feeling much, feeling much better today.
- [06:34]
A
No more itching.
- [06:35]
C
Yeah. So listen, it's all, it's all, it's all a video game, right? Same thing with, with broader markets. Right? It's, it's the daily RSI for broader markets. I think I saw a stat yesterday that after the close yesterday, the NASDAQ had been up seven out of the last eight days. Right.
- [06:58]
A
Did you say the particular one day.
- [07:00]
C
That it was down, there was all new narratives about we could be going down. And there's this reason and there's that reason and there's that reason. But, you know, half a week you.
- [07:11]
A
Volunteer after hours on the 10, it went from like 200 to 220, closed all the way down to 190. I mean, it's pretty, they were trading savage out there. That was after hours.
- [07:23]
B
Well, yeah, but they were trading at 90 times revenue.
- [07:27]
A
I mean, revenue revenue.
- [07:30]
C
So here's my, here's my favorite stat about, you know, trading at 90 times this or 50 times that. I watched a clip of, of Tom Lee associated with, you know, where can quote unquote versions of a bubble go. And back in the, you know, early 2000s, you know, Cisco was the biggest name in, in, in tech. And at the time when we were, let's just call it the beginning of the bubble, Cisco was trading at 56 times. I don't know if it was earnings or revenue. Whatever one it was, it was a big number right back then. That was a mind blowing number. But at the top about eight months later, I believe it was, Cisco was trading at 210 times earnings. Right. So it's, it's the Nvidia example that I've used so many times. If you bought Nvidia when it was worth $500 billion and then you sold it when it was worth 1 trillion, oops, it's, it got $5 trillion last week. Right. So you know, prices are, are fickle. Well, they're going to move around and it has much more to do with. Do things just mostly go up? Yeah, they basically do.
- [08:48]
B
Well, I always look at the open interest on the shorts and the longs and how much leverage is out there and these are pretty staggering numbers. When we crashed, major open interest on the short side rose and we saw we're seeing 20 to 25 billion dollars in shorts that could be squeezed at 115 right now. So my bet is the people who want all that $20 billion take the price to 115. That, that would be my bet only because the market doesn't do what we want it to do. I've never had that happen. It's, I've never sat there and been with a collective body of people like we are as you know, crypto, Twitter and going you know what it's gonna happen and then it happens. No, it's always some knife in the back that the market gives you at the last moment that some political, some bob of something. You know, it just never works out the way that, that you know, the whole group that everybody thinks it's going to, it's always counter to the everybody and you know, you've got to be an outlier to pick where the direction and I, I just, I think the money's too rich on. Oh, here's the other point. Check this out. Guess where all the open interests on the short side are. Guess how many the CME has. How many billion dollars open interest shorts? 1.9 billion. Not the degen crowd, not the crypto crowd. Guess how many open interests are on Binance. $12.5 billion of short, open interest. So you're telling me that now that Wall street has control of the reins that they're not going to want to get that $12.5 billion out of the hands of a bunch of degens that can't stop making ridicul, ridiculous 500x leverage bets like this is this is easy pickings, guys. This is like, drop your nets. There's a horde of shrimp under the boats. You're gonna catch more than the boat can hold, you know, 25. We got $20 billion on the line here. I. I'd make that trade if I could, you know. Wouldn't you?
- [11:07]
A
Right there with the shrimp. Yeah. I mean, listen, you made the best point earlier, Tillman, which I think is important. And we've been here long enough to be able to at least read sentiment. Nothing's guaranteed, but, like, when we were at 126, I went on market mavericks. Of course, I was with the two giga bears, Gareth and McGlone, but I said we were at 126. And I said, we're gonna probably range between 100 and 125 and not go straight to 135 because we were overbought. There was mass euphoria. We were heavy, greedy. You just flip it now. We are at the strongest support, arguably on the chart with extreme fear, and we're back to oversold. I mean, listen, we could go into a bear market. What do I know, right? And I'll still be buying down to 55k. I will have liquidated everything. I have to add it to Robinhood so the arch public can continue buying for me, because I don't care. But, like, it really does just feel like the opposing sentiment. But meanwhile, you know, I thought that getting 20 billion liquidated was enough. I mean, we're still hitting like a billion a day, it feels like, and people just getting liquidated. Like, how do. How do you guys have money left to get heavily leveraged?
- [12:15]
B
A lot of people taking small bets with huge leverage. It just, it adds up. It's the. And it's the law of numbers. It's the. The global economy is so large now, and when you can connect so many people. Think about it. We're not just tapping into a liquidity pool. It's domestic. We're tapping into de G. On the face of the earth that wants to hit the home run. That's a lot of people. I. I don't know how many people, but it's a lot of people. It's enough to, you know, put together $20 billion of leverage, short retail money. That's. That's. That's an attractive reason to be a market maker. It's an attractive reason to be a large whale in these smaller markets. It's an attractive reason for Wall street to get involved in this market. And it may be arguably the reason why we're all sitting here praising Larry Fink and everybody else, because this is how the markets work. It's kind of predictable.
- [13:13]
C
One thing that isn't talked about enough is that one can make the case that crypto exchanges actually have more participants than traditional markets overall in terms of active accounts. Right? So when you've got, you know, 125 million at Coinbase, 75 million at OkX, you know, 60 million at Kraken, 30 million at Robinhood, you're now collecting an enormous amount of folks that are sort of predicated on the idea of degenerate type of trades and leverage trades. Right. So that type of trading, that type of risk taking is skewed heavily into the crypto space as opposed to the traditional space. The traditional space is covered with hundreds of millions of people that put an extra $500 into their S P 500 ETF every month and never talk about it. Right. Very, very different than the crypto space where we're talking about this and everybody understands it and everybody knows the what, why and how and who that's doing this. Right. Very, very, very different worlds.
- [14:28]
A
From your basement or is that a car?
- [14:32]
C
That was, that was my daughter. Excuse me, she's eight months old and she's expressing herself and I'm not gonna.
- [14:38]
A
Make gimp jokes again because it was child, but there's. We just hear a lot of sounds that seem to be coming from below your floor. That's awesome.
- [14:47]
C
It's right, right out there.
- [14:49]
B
You would think that he lives in a two bedroom apartment, but I promise you, he does it. But you would think that, you would think, listen, out of 25 billion in open shorts, 20 billion of it are on Bybit and Binance. Does that sound like Americans to you or does that sound like a big world of money that doesn't even know who CZ is?
- [15:12]
A
Apparently.
- [15:14]
B
Come on.
- [15:16]
C
There is, there is. So, so again, the point being, 99 of people that have invested in, you know, Bitwise's Bitcoin ETF have never heard of Bybit. They don't know it exists.
- [15:32]
A
Absolutely right.
- [15:33]
C
So. And probably a third to two thirds of them have barely heard of or couldn't name Binance. Right. If somebody brought it up to them. Oh yeah, that's that other deal. It's a crazy crypto exchange. So that, that's the dichotomy here associated with these worlds that you have people that have allocated to the asset in a, in a serious way and continue to bump up their allocation, whereas you have this other grouping and it's A huge amount of people that are doing what Tillman's talking about on Bybit and Binance. Right. And I didn't mention finance when I was talking about exchanges. There's.
- [16:14]
B
Well, there's. There's even a more Nefari thing that could be going on, which is, you know, if you think about markets, right, there's a fulcrum in the middle. And if you have to put a lot of money on one side of the leverage point to move the market, it's a very deep market, mature market. If you have to put a little bit of money on the side of the scale to move a market, it's an immature market or a shallow market. Well, if you've invited a bunch of the biggest finance people in the world to play in our market, the crypto market, and they go, I wonder which one's going to give me more bang for my buck in control playing on Wall street or playing on the unregulated foreign spot exchanges? Which ones do you think they'd pick every day over here? Why? Because they can put a lot less money to work and do a lot more things with it. And you know, that, that's a. That's, that's just. It may be a good sign, but it also is going to be painful for retail because they engineer the price escalation to be as painful as possible. By the time it gets to the top, the only people that are left are the people who set it and forget it.
- [17:31]
A
Yeah, we bought it. Who simply bought it and didn't sell it and turned off the TV in between because they didn't get shaken out by some bad news that was forgettable an hour later. I mean, I said this, I've said this multiple times. I had a conversation in Vegas with James Lavish. We went out to dinner last Monday after the sailor thing, and he was like, man, this has been the weirdest cycle ever. Because he's like, even this time. So we, in the cycles, you always see altcoin pain at some point. Like, maybe they don't come back this time. I have no idea. Like, you know, alt season could be a 2x from the bottom, down 99%. So now you're down 95%. Yay. Right? And you'll be like, Yay, 2x from the bottom. But this time also, most of the big bitcoin believers tried to place bets outside of simply buying spot bitcoin with treasury companies and stuff and have lost a bunch of money or underwater as well. So there's not that many happy participants in this amazing bull market, bitcoin went up to 126 and even some of the most ardent believers and stuff did things that they probably regret at this point and aren't really massively up as much as they could have been.
- [18:39]
B
Well, even if you were the most conservative trader, you added to your position at this point, thus raising your cost basis. And you know you wish you hadn't, but it doesn't matter. It, it is. That's what. Well, well here's the point. You cannot direct pick the direction of the market if you think you can. More power to you. But I know if you could at a consistent level, you'd be the richest person in the world. So you know, the reason why you're not, I would suspect is because you can't. So it's not something that you should be picking a single point. Scott, you said something at the very.
- [19:14]
A
Beginning that I think, I think is.
- [19:16]
B
The best approach is like keep powder dry and take advantage of dips, not knowing that it's going to go up. But you do know. So you can measure this dip on a relative basis to other dips and you can say this is an extreme dip, this is a moderate dip, this is a light dip. You can range that from a like a velocity perspective. And if you look at this dip from anyone's measurement tool, it's a massive, massive, volatile, violent dip.
- [19:49]
A
So when you have over 20% from the top now, like in a more shallow, less volatile market in a range that's a pretty, pretty big dip.
- [19:57]
B
Yeah. So then you ask yourself the question, am I wanting to pick up a little bit of extra on this anomaly? Yeah, well that's. Those are the times that you buy is on anomaly swings, things that move far from the mean on either side. If it moves far from the mean on the top side, you should sell a little bit, take some profit.
- [20:15]
A
And yeah, I'm just glad I started with you guys at a, at a top, extremely like a lot of dips to buy and I could have just bought it all at 125 and I'd be sitting here waiting to see what happens. We could dig into that I think more deeply obviously later. But I mean, yeah, I am very excitedly buying dips. I told Tillman right before I was like sometimes I'll just wake up in the morning and I don't even check the bitcoin price anymore. I just open my email to see how many of my alerts have or have not fired and when I don't get any, I'm like God damn it. And that probably means the market went up.
- [20:52]
C
Yeah.
- [20:52]
A
Because I didn't buy anything. Right. I'm like damn, come on. You know, and like I really, I'm long term here. I would so much rather be buying 103 than 125.
- [21:04]
B
Well and here, here's the beauty that you haven't experienced in this cycle yet. But yes, we started here and the price has been going down and you've been accumulating along that, you know, price curve. But when you start having the same type of spikes to the upside and you start cashing those positions and use your account can go from like very little cash in it to a lot of cash very, very quickly because the market is moving in that one direction very violently. And those are, you know, that's the shaking event that if you're not, if you don't have tools to harvest that volatility, you should try to, try to find some. We have some, but maybe more than just ours. It as a lost opportunity if you're not harvesting it.
- [21:50]
C
A couple of moments to a little bit of rip here. Anybody remember the meme coin era? Just wondering if we want to throw back to, to that time. Doing great now you know, that, that, that is complete, you know, forever dead. And then the other thing to, to consider is the, the altcoin world and, and where does it go, you know, in this moment where we're seeing, you know, again just massive moves to the downside for altcoins. Your comment about James Lavish. There's just blood in the streets with all coins and that, that seems to be what happens oftentimes in the cycle. At the same time though, there will be those that survive. And the reason why I say that is again seeing another headline this morning and I think it was, was from your account Scott, that UBS just did a, you know, did a couple transactions associated with chain link. Right. So while the price of, of of some of these particular layer ones or layer twos will, will find themselves in deep drawdowns, the question is are there. Is, is something being built? Is there be. Are they being used somewhere? And you know, my, my thesis is is they're being used more and more by the traditional financial system than we want to give them credit for in moments like this. Right.
- [23:22]
A
And by the way, in the midst of all this, the Solana ETF is, I mean we've seen some outflows from Bitcoin ETFs not a surprise, but Solana ETF has been the most successful ETF launch of 2025 and still catching inflows even in this bear cycle. So there's obviously some altcoin interest. It just might be structurally different than in the past because you can buy it in an etf. Sorry.
- [23:43]
B
Well, I think Andrew just said that he thinks this altcoin season will be predicated on utility, which I hope it is. Listen, I think anybody that's been in the space for a long time has, through previous cycles, shaking their head in kind of, you know, disgust as to how the stupidest coins make the most money for people. I think that it is time for our market to mature. I mean, the fact that Pepe and all of these crazy meme coins that you alluded to earlier, Andrew, have been kind of internationally known as what we represent as the crypto space. What. What if the next iteration is known as the key functional set of Rails or transactional throughput functionality of the next financial age? If you get an altcoin that can catch any real use like that, what. What kind of mayhem should we see in terms of pricing? I mean, that should. That should draw everyone.
- [24:47]
C
It harkens back to, you know, there were moments where before Nvidia, there was Broadcom, right? So I remember watching cnbc and they would play this, you know, the David Faber and Kramer would try and talk about Broadcom, and it had gone up so violently for like, nine months that somebody in the background would just play somebody saying, frodcom, Frodcom, Fraudcom, Fraudcom. Right. So that existed. In other words, we'll get to a point where there will be a version of Avalanche, Avalanche, Avalanche, Avalanche. Right, that will happen. It's just a question of can you emotionally process the way in which we get there? Right, because it's being used. You know, cryptos like that, that type of technology is being integrated into systems right now in a alpha beta type of way. And, and we'll get there. You know, these organizations, they. They want to get there because there's gold at the end of that rainbow. Not maybe completely associated with the price of Avalanche, but certainly the adjustment to the way financial systems work and more revenue. Right.
- [26:08]
A
Every time Andrew talks now. Avalanche, Avalanche, Avalanche.
- [26:13]
B
Hey, did you. Did you see that? Someone is launching a flare etf. Did you see that? Scott, You.
- [26:22]
A
You.
- [26:22]
B
You spoke with Hugo. That. That's very shocking.
- [26:25]
A
I like, I like Hugo. He's smart. It's funny, I accidentally. I mean, it's never an accident because I guess you should learn your lesson, know what's happening. But I triggered the xrp, you know, army of late by asking about the value of the token, God forbid, which by the way, whether you hate me or my opinion that you think I have on xrp, which is not negative, it sparked like the most constructive conversation I've ever seen about token utility between Joel Katz, AKA David Schwartz, CTO of Ripple and everyone else. He really got in the trenches and explained it and broke it down. So you're welcome. Wait, why? But I've never like, but, but like Hugo and I were having a very long, you know, series of dms which I, I could never share. But let me just say that like I brought out a lot of very large people in the Ripple community to have very private like conversations with me and everyone agrees that it's lindy effects and speculation for any altcoin that's not unique to xrp. Like nobody right now can say that my coin is trading at a valuation that is in line with the revenue.
- [27:30]
B
I couldn't agree more.
- [27:31]
A
Back to like, right? Anyone? Right? So let's listen with xrp and they made it very clear people think I, I that the community over and over again. You don't understand xrp. How can you not understand it after all these years? You're engagement baiting. I understand what Ripple does, as I said. What I can't get to is the current valuation of XRP based on, on the usage. But that's true of most tokens.
- [27:54]
B
That's true of every token.
- [27:55]
A
Xrp, the token. If banks adopt a decentralized platform to convert different currencies and tokens quickly, it will be incredible. But like they're saying, listen, they created a token which is great. They use that token to fund multibillion dollars in acquisitions which could build the decentralized system of the future. That is factually what happened. You can take any opinion you want on it. But now like every token, it's time to your point Tillman, to deliver. We want it. Now is the time to see the utility be the reason that token prices rise. That is not them. It's every token that applies to Solana, applies to Ethereum. It applies to certainly like Chainlink. We just showed the chainlink news and every time we talk about link, Dave Weisberger comes on and says, okay, chainlink's doing awesome things. How does that value accretive to link holders? These are the questions we need to answer in crypto.
- [28:54]
B
These are the clips that you need to play on repeat for crypto.
- [28:58]
A
No, because if I flip that, I'm going to literally get raped, beaten and abused in the in the comments and.
- [29:03]
B
Maybe no, but it's truth. And the reality is, is that the tribalism that we carry in from the crypto past into this new future is, is foolish and it makes us look like fools, in my opinion. And I think that XRP has a tremendous opportunity to be a widely used coin. I was a big XRP believer back in the day, but I lost faith in what everyone believed in as the utility or the true purpose, which was cross border payments when stablecoins were born. That killed that to me. Why? Well, because anything that doesn't have par value is an inferior settlement layer to anything that does have par value. Like check on Grok if you don't.
- [29:55]
A
So, so the, the argument there that Katz made and others was that it's so super fast that like the volatility would be irrelevant.
- [30:02]
B
You still have to hold it over.
- [30:04]
A
They would want decentralized systems to do it. And so I'm just.
- [30:09]
B
But here's, here's the point.
- [30:10]
A
Why my argument was yes, stable coins. And listen, stable coins may not be decentralized or the best. And I think we all agree we would love a decentralized future, whatever that's on. But like it's good enough that most people are adopting them and that's fast.
- [30:22]
B
I would agree.
- [30:23]
A
I was getting in arguments and I was like, I have to stop. People were like, hey, so how are you? Okay, well how are you going to send those stable coins cross border? Literally people were saying that and I was like, I literally send stable coins cross border. Like what are we talking about? You guys really believe that without like some bridge token, I can't send a stable coin to someone in, in Europe?
- [30:42]
C
Yeah, it's, it's different.
- [30:44]
A
And I'm not, this is like, I'm not.
- [30:45]
B
Hold on, you guys. You guys interrupted me and didn't even let me finish. My main point.
- [30:49]
A
Okay, I'm sorry.
- [30:50]
B
My main point here is that Ripple has readjusted even though some of their followers have not. What do I mean by that? Well, they bought an exchange. Hidden road's a big opportunity for them, massive opportunity for them. And if they become a bank that is also an exchange that offers tokenized stocks and every crypto and they use XRP and their new stablecoin as settlement layers inside of their own exchange and depth of liquidity for settlement to be the market maker, essentially all of those things could make them a legitimate competitor on the horizon of new future banking. And if I heard XRP people saying, saying yeah, we believe that narrative, I'd Be a more of a believer, but baby, they're still on the 589. We're taking over, you know, the Swift network. And it's. It's just. To me, it's like, you guys went.
- [31:50]
A
To the XRP conference. You guys are huge XRPers.
- [31:53]
B
I, I, listen, I love the technology. I, I don't think there's a. Almost a better technology for some applications than xrp, truthfully. But, you know, who cares about tech? We're. We're all about the Andrew's got the.
- [32:07]
A
Baggage in the basement again. Sloth is. Sloth does not like the altcoin talk that we're doing right now. It's.
- [32:16]
B
Do you have Brad Garlinghouse? Like, is he mad about this?
- [32:21]
C
Everybody?
- [32:22]
A
You guys are gonna get me in so much trouble. I shouldn't have brought it up. I was like, I was on, like, a media blackout of talking about it, but, you know, you brought up too good. I think they're brilliant, you know? And listen, they are brilliant.
- [32:33]
B
And the tech.
- [32:33]
A
One of the people who actually, Santiago, who is like, making very, like, very decent points about XRP and very honest about, like, why he was betting on it because he saw it as a bet on what would happen in the future. He literally went on to, like, write a tweet that was like, I would actually. But if you're gonna bet on one of the two, I'd bet on flair, you know, like, so there were people that, that, that said that in there as well. By the way, in case you guys aren't watching, we're right there on that 50 ma.
- [33:01]
C
Yeah.
- [33:05]
B
We'Re bearish right now, and we're retesting basically the support that we have now built.
- [33:12]
A
Oh, look at it so close. Just circling, circling.
- [33:17]
B
Look how much convincing volumes there too.
- [33:19]
C
It's huge.
- [33:22]
A
Exactly. It's the weekly. So I guess we'll. We'll see how it. It pans out. By the way, the Predictive markets are saying 78 chance of Bitcoin falling below 100k.
- [33:33]
B
Well, there's $25 billion out there that says that.
- [33:35]
A
So, I mean, you might be able to make that bet. Will Bitcoin Diplo 100k before this stre is over?
- [33:45]
C
Yeah.
- [33:45]
A
So right now, definitely possible. So what. What have we got? 9:37. I just want to show you, by the way, I don't know where we're at now, but I did wake up this morning to Sloth banging on the. On the walls of the basement, but also to a few sweet, sweet, sweet buys. Look at that Ethereum buy we got the bottom to be fair we've been averaging down you know and Solana we bought there right at the bottom to be fair we've been averaging down so now my account is down about, is down about six and a half percent last week I was celebrating and it's not my metric and I said that, that you know we were up but we were at like 116k. But I've lowered my cost basis now dramatically on everything. We've got bitcoin and remember I spazzed and bought everything at the beginning but I'm looking we got bitcoin cost basis down to about 112 and I bought most of it at 125. We've got Solana Cost Basis down to about 179. It's currently trading at 159. We've got ETH down to about 37.48. Pretty happy, pretty happy because my goal is not to buy the bottom, it's to average down believing that one day we will go up. Man, I'm, I am really happy this is, I'm going to be honest, this is wildly out executing me because I would have market bought everything time personally.
- [35:04]
B
Well and, and the main thing if you're looking at that chart for the first time to take away from it is, is all of your buys happen on big red candles or big down candles and all your sales happen on big up candles or big green candles. And the reason why that exists is because it's harvesting the short term volatility of the market. Those are all anomaly moves to the either of the upside of the downside and you should be taking advantage of that. If you don't have a tool to take advantage of it ours is free to use and you're welcome to go download it and get this exact setup that Scott has rolling and you can see for yourself. But let's just say what this really know it's glory.
- [35:44]
A
In case people are wondering I'm not at all busy buying stuff.
- [35:48]
B
No it's all automatic and it's taking advantage of times in the market where you're seeing anomaly moves and when you do that consistently over time with a measured approach you can't be wrong because what your objective is at the very beginning you told us I want to accumulate a large position in these, I don't know what stuff you can't help in crypto. And so if you're looking at accumulation how do you accumulate? Well you buy on the dips and you sell on the rips.
- [36:22]
A
So with this strategy, just so people are clear the way that we have it set up. So obviously there's 12 different ways that I'm buying and selling, selling things generally. But if you look at my portfolio, where we're currently at, I own basically twice as much Bitcoin as I own Ethereum and Solana combined. So just so people are understanding kind of the ratios, and Ethereum and Salana have been actively buying and selling, earning the yield, buying bitcoin back. So most of the profits from those has gone back into bitcoin for now. And I'm currently not trying to sell bitcoin, but we could do that actually, and probably outperform. But I'm just trying to accumulate the position first, like I said, you know, because, like, I've got. Yeah, I mean, I'm up to one bitcoin, right? Yeah. So that's pretty cool.
- [37:11]
B
You, you make money, you yield on volatility from cryptos that move more than bitcoin. And then I, you know, I think everybody that looks at bitcoin looks at it as kind of a savings account. And so you're right, you shouldn't trade that as much. You're not harvesting as much volatility as you are in the other ones. So there's not as much opportunity. And you really don't want to ever be short Bitcoin or light Bitcoin if you're still a gigable, which I think most people are at this price.
- [37:46]
A
And by the way, I see people asking, and one of them's on Twitter, so we can't respond to it. But, like, do we request the Scott Melker special when we sign up? That sounds so weird.
- [37:57]
C
Yeah.
- [37:57]
A
I'm married.
- [37:58]
C
We have a lot of people. We have a lot of people doing that actually.
- [38:01]
A
But. But to be clear, the Scott Melker special took some Scott Melker tweaking and learning curve like it will with anyone else. Because as much as I would love them to, these guys will not go into your trading view and set these things for you. I had to do it myself. They are not your financial advisors, so I still had to learn. Well, let's talk about that and tweak and do it myself, because they can't just exact. Well, you could probably. We could probably give you exactly what I have now, but.
- [38:32]
B
But it won't match your expectations. Here's the point that, yeah, Scott's making. Every person has this expectation, whether you are cognitive of it or not. And so when you're building these strategies you can build. Look how many strategies Scott's running. He's running like 12. By, by removing four of them, you materially change the outcome. Right. Or if you removed half of them, or if you lowered the capital amounts that are being allocated to specific ones, it's a very, very unique outcome that you can craft with this toolbox. So here's the point. You come in, you, you, you use the free tool, you start playing with it, you talk to all of our customer service reps, they will literally walk you through, set up and get you trading. Once you get your arms around that, you're going to have a revised expectation. You're going to reach back out to our customer service. They're going to help you set up your new expectations. Even after that, it's going to continue to. You're going to want to tweak it over the first 90 days, let's call it, of using it, and we're going to be right there every step of the way.
- [39:39]
A
You wanted to do, and I told you your team wanted to do, and I told you so on me at the beginning so bad. No, we got to accumulate everything right now. The reason why this is me, by the way, because it was like a, you know, it was like a two week gap getting set up and I think we saw the market go from like 111 to 120 to the all time high. Yeah, right. And I was like, could have been buying this whole $10,000.
- [40:05]
B
Well, you were serious. FOMO in.
- [40:07]
A
Yeah. And I was like, but I think we're gonna go down, but I want to start now, so let me just get a position in case. And so it's obviously has, like, it won't matter at all long term, but like your team was like, chill, bro, we got this. And I was like, bye. We gotta get in 50 of this money right now. I will add.
- [40:24]
C
So just so we step back a little bit, we've talked a lot on this podcast about the fact that there are folks that are waiting for the cascade of leveraged positions to be washed out so they can gather the assets that are washed out at the institutional level. Guess what those institutions are doing and guess what kind of tools they're using to do that. You're looking at it, right? They're not using leverage positions. They're just waiting for certain price points to hit and then they gobble up what's available at those certain price points with zero emotions. Right. This has been happening in traditional markets for, let's call it 40 years. It doesn't happen in crypto until now. And crypto markets are just the wild, wild west. And if you're able to use discipline tools and discipline thinking associated with those tools, the way that you benefit is far beyond 99% of the rest of retail and institutional. On the crypto side, you can't. You know, I look at that Solana chart that you had pulled up, all.
- [41:36]
A
Right, and now I'm literally here charting while you're talking. And I just realized that bitcoin just swept that low like beautifully. If that holds above there.
- [41:45]
C
Yeah, yeah, so, so that, you know, those last three buys on Solana, I mean, that just looks like art, to be honest, because there's no way emotionally that you, you can pull that off. A buy on a huge, you know, candle down another buy on a meaningful candle down another buy near the lows.
- [42:07]
A
I should be clear also, like, I chose to run a six hour strategy to get it more active. If you ran the daily, you have sold everything that you had bought at a profit. If you were just running the daily, yes, you bought at 184, but then you just bought at 165 or at 162. So there's only been two buys where you basically unloaded all of those longs in profit. I mean, look when again, but for most people, the daily maybe smooths away a little more of the insanity.
- [42:36]
B
Well, again, it's what your expectations are. We have people calling us, we have, you know, over 10,000 customers. We have people that call us and.
- [42:44]
A
Say, this is art.
- [42:45]
B
They just, they going, this is a pet rock. It doesn't do anything. I want more action. And we go, oh, okay, well let's, you want the Scott melker, you want 12 things. So literally you can race this car as fast as you want to drive it and have as many instances, you know, firing every day as you want, or you can run it as slow and methodically and as prudent as possible as you, as you desire. It's completely up to you. That's the, that's the whole point. It's user driven.
- [43:13]
C
And the, and the analogy expands itself. You can run six different cars at six different mph on any given day and, and get, you know, different types of results. But the bottom line is here, if you're, if you're not using these tools, you are sim. You're, you're, you're twisting in the wind, right? You're twisting like right now, everybody on crypto Twitter is saying, we're going lower. So can you emotionally hit? I'm gonna buy Solana at whatever it is right now, 160 something, when everybody thinks it's going to 140 or 120. No, you can't. It, no, you can't. But our tools will.
- [43:55]
A
I am going to be honest though. I would personally like, given the opportunity, I, I, I would be smash buying here with it this time. This time.
- [44:07]
B
You're an addict. You cannot predict the market.
- [44:09]
A
Look at it.
- [44:10]
B
No one can predict the market.
- [44:12]
A
Oh, it went below.
- [44:14]
C
Look at that, look at that, look at that. Yeah.
- [44:18]
A
Oh, wait, 103.
- [44:21]
C
I mean, I need to take another dose of my daily RSI right now just to deal with, deal with that price action.
- [44:26]
A
You need to go down and unlock Sloth and give them a baby roof because we've heard that banging again all.
- [44:32]
C
Day, by the way. They're, they're on their way upstairs. There's a small project they've got to do in the laundry space. So Sloth is on his way up here in about 50.
- [44:40]
A
Yeah, they're, they're putting in Andrew's red room behind a trap door behind the washer.
- [44:47]
B
Are you planning completion, you know, to be finished right around Trump's Ballroom?
- [44:51]
C
Is that the, that's, yeah, yeah, that's the, that's the timeline.
- [44:55]
A
Yeah. Except for yours is sponsored by Arch Public, so it's gonna have huge Arch Public logos instead of the huge coinbase logos that are gonna be all over the White House. Wouldn't it be awesome if they started selling sponsorship like space on the front of the White House to crypto companies? Like this pillar is sponsored by cracking. Oh, look at that. Look at it. Look at it in all its glory. We're back above 104, one below 103. There it is.
- [45:20]
B
Why are you tempting it to be a head fake? Stop talking to it. You leave it.
- [45:24]
A
I want it lower.
- [45:25]
B
It's gonna.
- [45:26]
A
I need the one. This is what I need. I need the intersection of the 6 hour and 12 hour candles, right. I need both of those to close on one huge dip before the wick. So I want to close at the dead bottom at those moments and then boing. And we buy the dead bottom and we've done that, man, where we got the stakes on the 12 hour close. And I doubled down on all three thoughts.
- [45:48]
C
So those of you that aren't Arch Public customers yet, you are literally watching in real time what it's like to become an Arch Public user. You're like, wait, if this algo does this and this at the same time, I can't wait to get the email. I hope it happens, please.
- [46:07]
B
Well, truthfully, to your point though, if you're running a lot of algos and you have a violent dip down, that creates a lot of buying opportunities and then you have a violent bounce up that creates a lot of selling opportunities and profit, you can in a very short period of time harvest a tremendous amount of volatility as if you had an up, a directional move, you know, up to 145. Because that's, that's how much price potential there is in those swings.
- [46:33]
A
I just want it more down. Listen, I, I get it. Like people, it's very painful. Let me just like to zoom out for people. Like, it's very painful to see your portfolio go down.
- [46:42]
C
Sure.
- [46:43]
A
But you have to ask yourself the same way you do with all of these strategies, like, what was your intention when you bought all of this stuff? Was it to immediately sell it in profit? Because you probably had a chance to do that and did it. So if you're being realistic with yourself, if you're just accumulating, low is better than high. Like, I am not selling this stuff. I made some money that I wanted to put into bitcoin and I'm doing better right now doing it like this than I would have with my own strategy. So that's a win. That's it. And I'm not, I don't want to sell it. I want to buy a bunch of stuff. That's it.
- [47:17]
B
Well, the fact that you're even seeing benefit this early is, is just telling how volatile the market is, because this is a set it and forget it type of a strategy where you want to end up a year from now. Here, here's how I look at setting the tools. As kind of a beginner, how many bitcoin do I want to own one year from now? Oh, I want to own this many. Okay. How much do I want to trade between now and then and what percentage of my portfolio do I have allocated right now? So this is like a very robust reallocation tool. So if you own 0% bitcoin and you want to get to 11% bitcoin of your tradable cash, then you can fine tune strategies to get you to that number. And then you can change them once you're there to do sideways trading and do more accumulation on profits, not so much new capital placement. But if you're at 11% placement and you want to get to 50% placement, you can schedule that if you're at 75, 90% placement and you want to take some off the table, you can schedule that. And it's not just one strategy that's scheduling it. It's. It's a, it's a lot of different strategies that are on different time periods so that you, if you're really aggressive, you can accomplish those goals very quickly because the volatility is happening at some level.
- [48:36]
A
Right.
- [48:37]
B
If you can't get a 4% swing on a one day candle to close so it wouldn't trigger a buy, then you could get a 4% swing on a one week candle and it closed. That's a much more probable event. So if you want to increase your probability of taking more frequent trades, you just reduce the time, you know, you reduce the amount of movement that you're having to, to incur and you expand the time frame that you're allowing it to incur in. So if you really wanted to be super aggressive, you could say, I want to trade 4 hour candles and I want to trade 1% movements on 4 hour candles. You could do that and you'd see trades happening all, all the time.
- [49:16]
A
Right. There are people every time in the comments and I get it who are not happy. I love you went back to content. I used to have your podcast out. Just seems like an infomercial. Tuesdays I hang out with my friends Andrew and Tillman and talk about a thing I really believe in that I am an equity holder in and deeply think will help you. Every other day. We don't.
- [49:37]
C
Yeah.
- [49:38]
A
You know, and my Sunday podcasts are exactly the same as they always were. If you want the, the recorded stuff, we got something for everyone. This. On Tuesdays we do like, you know, 30 minutes of the real stuff and then we talk about this because I think it's going to help you. I watch the people on Twitter. I watch the people in the comments. People are spastic. They make horrible decisions. This thing makes good decisions.
- [49:59]
B
Well, we also have.
- [50:00]
A
If you're here, you want to own bitcoin. I'm assuming nobody watches my show because they want to know about the next meme coin. There's other channels for that. Every one of my title says bitcoin something.
- [50:10]
B
There's a lot of customers that have signed up over the last year and a half that have been listening to you. I mean, a lot. And they love hearing about it. And they do because they love the tools. So you know, if, if you feel left out of the conversation, try our tools for free and you won't feel left out of that conversation. They're. They're available right now.
- [50:33]
A
Listen, I get it. It's a bit infomercially because we. We're three guys who love this thing and are talking about it. Right. So it is what it is.
- [50:40]
C
We do spend the first 35 minutes talking about all sorts of other things that have nothing to do with art.
- [50:45]
A
Yeah. Mostly Larry Fink all the time.
- [50:46]
C
Because you're so obsessed with the guy. I mean, there is such thing as a fake kink. It exists. It's okay. I embrace it. I'm all right.
- [50:54]
B
It's horrible. I've not heard that one yet.
- [50:56]
A
Hey, guys, really quick, you know, what do you think of this, though? Tom Lee, he's still in the arena. Like yesterday, we're like dropping and Tom Lee's on TV. Like, yeah, 150 to 200 eth at 7,000 by year end. Do you know what we're going to be talking about on the back half of this show? If Bitcoin's at 200k, it eats at 7,055 days from now. You think I'm annoying now?
- [51:20]
B
Guys, I'll tell you what I think about Tom Lee. He's a fellow pudgy penguin. Yeah, let's go pudgy penguins.
- [51:28]
A
When did you become a pudgy?
- [51:30]
B
Literally, I bought one because of Tom. Yeah.
- [51:33]
A
And it's got a scarf for the color.
- [51:35]
B
Yeah. I'm in cold weather. I'm cool.
- [51:37]
A
Cool.
- [51:37]
B
I have my glasses upside down. That makes me nice.
- [51:41]
A
That's probably a rare trait that gives it extra value.
- [51:44]
C
So again, to. To state my age with an example, I was around when the briefcase indicator was a thing on CNBC with the Fed chairman at the time. Right. So they would watch before the thing, he'd walk in and was his briefcase larger? Was it smaller? What was the briefcase indicator? I think we need to have a hair scale indicator for Tom Lee. Right. So Tom Lee's cloth is absolutely legendary. I'm very, very jealous. Like this. There are moments where it's like this, Right? So there needs to be a Tom Lee hair indicator. I think.
- [52:22]
A
I think it's been really right a lot more than wrong for a very long time. Before Crypto, before Fun Strat, even. When. Where was he? Goldman, J.P. morgan. What? Where was he? Andrew?
- [52:31]
C
Yeah, he was a J.P. morgan guy.
- [52:33]
A
Morgan. Yeah. He's like, listen to him. When he was just like a JP Morgan guy who was getting right.
- [52:40]
C
Wait, so should we tell him that? Should we, should we, should we tweet that out? Tom Lee is an older Jeff Park.
- [52:47]
A
Yeah. Maybe we should say Jeff park is a younger Tom Lee.
- [52:52]
B
Listen, age is, is a beautiful thing. Wisdom in age.
- [52:58]
A
I mean Brad Pitt is just an older Scott Melker. I mean if we're gonna do it that way, Sloth is just an older Scott Melker. Unfortunately, you know that is we, we can all see where, where we're at, where we're heading. But yeah, I mean he's, he remains like gigabl and is relentless, unrelenting.
- [53:19]
B
Yeah, I think he's, he's up there with the best of them.
- [53:23]
A
Them honestly is and I'm gonna just appreciate that he can go in the line of fire and just bullpost relentlessly. It doesn't matter what saying. And by the way, he owns like 3% of all the Ethereum on the planet now in a matter of months which I find interesting. But you guys can check this out obviously@archpublic.com right here. Ask for this Scott Melker. Sorry if you get it. And I still don't know what it means but I know that like if my wife watches a show she's like what are you talking about? Don't offer them that. It's weird.
- [53:58]
B
We also have a real estate fund that has.
- [54:03]
A
We can keep going past 10. Go ahead.
- [54:05]
B
We've launched a fund with Arch Public and some of our partners that's focused on bitcoin accumulation. We're trying to coin a new phrase. Instead of Bitcoin Treasury Co. Which you know, borrows money to buy bitcoin, these we're going to be accumulating positive cash flowing, highly scalable businesses and then dedicating a large portion of their net operating income to purchasing bitcoin. So it's going to be a really unique vehicle. It's tax advantaged based upon the big beautiful bill. And if you are an accredited investor go to our website, click get started and set up a meeting with us. We'd love to talk to you. Accredited investors only.
- [54:48]
A
Is that you guys in Andrew's basement are accredited investors.
- [54:53]
B
They're trying to get them down there.
- [54:54]
A
He's keeping them down there in the accredited investor sweatshop.
- [54:57]
B
That's right.
- [54:58]
A
Enough public to become accredited that they can come upstairs to the laundry room where they can invest in the fund.
- [55:04]
B
Listen, is anyone that's in crypto really accredited or.
- [55:13]
A
That's why they should have an intelligence test and not a.
- [55:16]
B
There you go, there you go.
- [55:18]
A
How many meme coins do you own? Not accredited. But I'm worth a billion dollars.
- [55:21]
C
Sorry, sorry.
- [55:24]
A
Just as it doesn't work that way all right, guys, that is all we got. Hey, by the way, when we were talking about revenue, because I'm a distracted person, I'm gonna. By the way, I'm not gonna be able to monetize this stream now, which probably cost me a few hundred bucks or something. But, Richard, one potential. Wait, I blew it. Wait one second. Let's do this. Because it's the greatest maybe seen in all. Richard, one potential issue. Our hosting fees could become a challenge as we scale. Right?
- [55:46]
B
But we can offset a lot of that once we get a few customers and start a subscription.
- [55:50]
C
Revenue models.
- [55:51]
A
What?
- [55:52]
D
No, no, no, no, no. No revenue.
- [55:54]
A
I'll call you back. What?
- [55:56]
D
Why would you go after revenue?
- [55:58]
B
Because. To make money.
- [56:01]
C
No.
- [56:02]
D
If you show revenue, people will ask how much? And it will never be enough. The company that was the 100x or the thousandx or becomes the 2x dog. But if you have no revenue, you can say you're pre revenue. You're a potential pure play. It's not about how much you earn. It's about what you're worth. And who's worth the most. Companies that lose money. Amazon has lost money every quarter for the last 20 years. And that Bezos is the king.
- [56:28]
B
The king.
- [56:28]
A
There's no.
- [56:29]
B
No revenue.
- [56:29]
D
No one wants to see revenue.
- [56:33]
A
I just.
- [56:33]
B
I just thought that mainly the goal of companies is to make money. Yeah.
- [56:38]
D
No, no, no.
- [56:38]
A
That's not how it works.
- [56:39]
D
I don't want to make a little.
- [56:40]
A
Bit of money every day.
- [56:42]
D
I want to make a fuck ton of money all at once.
- [56:43]
A
Roi. Roi. Rsi.
- [56:48]
D
You know what that stands for?
- [56:50]
B
Return on investment.
- [56:51]
A
Return on investment.
- [56:51]
D
Nope. Radio on Internet.
- [56:59]
C
Card. Goes like this. Not like this. Like this.
- [57:03]
A
Trace commas. Ehrlich, Bachman. T.J. miller is a huge bitcoin crypto guy.
- [57:10]
C
Yeah.
- [57:11]
A
He actually has spoken at the last couple bitcoin conferences. And he is. I hung out with him one night at the bitcoin conference in Vegas at a Gemini party. And he is absolutely the most hilarious human being you could ever hope to like, share 20 minutes with in a room is so funny. Guy is amazing. Yes. I name dropped, but it happened. It was at a bitcoin thing. Oh, my God. We're done, guys. Are we good? We're done. Arch Public Infomercial. Where are the other infomercial we get? You buy a Slap Chop, get yourself a Snuggie and sign up.
- [57:45]
B
I have a knife that will cut through a shoe. There's lots of things.
- [57:52]
A
All right, next week we're going to talk about all of our favorite infomercials. Bye, everyone. See you later. Let's sloth out of the basement, dude.
- [57:59]
B
Let's do. Let's do.