← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin Price Just Set Another All-Time High, What's Next For Crypto?
00:35:26
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- [00:01]
Alex
Bitcoin price set a new all time high yesterday for a brief moment before slightly dropping. But it's clear that there's massive bullish sentiment in the market, leading many to wonder what's next for bitcoin, Specifically, what's next for the rest of crypto? We're going to dig into that today with Marcus Zeland from 10X Research and of course Yago. Because it's Thursday with chart guys at the end. Let's go. Let's do it. Is Thursday and bitcoin made a new all time high and it's been actually surprisingly quiet. You may notice a few things. One is that I got a really nice new camera and so now I've got this fresh look. I got new big lights up here so I don't look like a crazy ghost. We're improving over here. You know, we're making it a better experience for all people involved. You probably wouldn't have even noticed if I didn't say anything, but hey, seems like it was worth the money. Anyways, let's dig into what is happening right now in the market. Yago, you never doubt in your mind that bitcoin is going to continue to make new all time highs, right? Oh my God.
- [01:19]
Yago
I just hope it doesn't anytime soon. It's like a coiled spring right now. And the more.
- [01:25]
Alex
But it made it by like, it made it by like a dollar for like three minutes, you know, so.
- [01:29]
Yago
I know, but let's at least have, let's, let's at least have a relaxed summer in which we can accumulate just a little bit more.
- [01:36]
Alex
I agree, man. I've still got, you know, just in case bids in the stink. Bids in the like low 90s and high 80s. Just in case. No intended, like, I don't think they'll fill, but man, it would be really great if they did, wouldn't it? I mean, Marcus, you do this literally all day. As we were kind of Talking about before 10x research, you guys provide research to the largest institutions, hedge funds, on how they should approach the market. Your views on what's coming. So this slight tap of the all time high, what does it mean for you?
- [02:04]
Marcus
Well, new all time high, I feel nothing. You know, I mean that's kind of like the thing, right? So I mean, it's really, you know, all the chat groups that we have, it's just quiet. It's just, I mean it's really. I don't think I've ever seen this before. It's. Somebody was saying it's like, you know, Your flight has been delayed for six months and it finally takes off and you're just like okay, so let's go. But nobody's really excited. It's quite interesting. But I think it's also because we have seen a lot of selling and the way we look at from the on chain world is really that a lot of old wallets, a lot of OGs have been actually selling offsetting really the buying from the ETFs and the buying from the corporate. So I think there's a lot of distribution going on among really the big players. And I think that's sort of like where we have been grinding higher but not really bursting higher. And you know, when you look at the futures market, open interest is you know, relatively muted. You know, the funding rate is relatively low. So there's not a lot of leverage in the market. It's just sort of like this, this you know, vwap tvop, you know, grinding higher really from the community and not really some excitement first. You know, we're making you high. Normally we would see you know a 5, 10% move. I mean when was the last time we had like a 5 or 10% move? I mean we look back last cycle we had a couple of them on weekends. Now the weekends are pretty much dead. I can go on and on. There are all these examples but it's kind of like how it is right now.
- [03:32]
Alex
Yeah, I love that they always have to put this in context on Bloomberg of something macro. Bitcoin breaks 112,000 as first as traders defy tariff angst as if bitcoin slightly breaking 112,000 had anything to do with tariff news that nobody's paying attention to anymore. It's nonsense to me. But listen, I think this begs a really good question that we can discuss which is we've seen the metrics across the market, things like this obviously, right spot Bitcoin ETF surpassed 50 billion in cumulative net inflows among institutional demand surge. We know how much buying there is. We have bitcoin treasury companies left and right that are raising a billion here and there, casual billions of to buy more Bitcoin. Who is selling that is keeping price even at these levels. Right, because we've seen sell offs down to the, I mean low 90s, high 80s not that long ago certainly we saw a sell off, what just a couple weeks ago that was below 100, you know, tap below 100. How is there enough bitcoin to sell that this buying pressure is not sending prices flying.
- [04:37]
Marcus
So one of the comments that I made earlier and it was picked up by, you know, by cnbc, Bloomberg and so on, is really that these wallets of a thousand btc, they're the ones that are really like selling. And these are, you know, some of the old, you know, old miners, probably like Chinese miners from, you know, 10, 15 years ago almost. And I think when we, when we looked at those kind of these cohorts, the ones that are really buying are the wallets between 100 to 1000 BTC. And, and we know that for example MicroStrategy and BlackRock, they each have around like 500 wallets. So they fall into this sort of like the whales, right? I mean the, you know, have glass not classifies them the 100 BTC, basically 10 million USD to, you know, to like 100 million BTC per wallet. But it's really the larger ones, it's really the 1,000 to 10,000 ones that are really like offloading. And the way we look at it is really that as much as these ETFs and as much as the corporates are willing to buy per day, that's how much these older wallets are willing to sell. So there's really this kind of distribution at the top. And I think that's really why we're not going higher. So it's no longer a retail market. It's really, you know, the old school guys, the miners versus really the new players, the microstrategies and the blackrocks of the world. But you know, you were showing or you were mentioning the ETF flows, which is very interesting because we had three waves of really ETFs buying of course initially. The first move was Q1 last year, which was kind of novelty. The high funding rate. Hedge funds were arbitraging it. So they were buying the ETFs. But the hedge funds of course are completely out now. So we calculate less than 1% hedge fund arbitrage positioning, if not even less. And then of course we had another wave when Powell lowered interest rates by 50 basis points. And then the third wave started actually in mid April this year. And this is when Trump started to attack Powell. So I think there's actually a massive trade going on right now where people buying Bitcoin, the ETFs are just accumulating. You know what's more interesting than the 50 billion is actually the 15 billion over literally the last, you know, two, two and a half months. Really buying this is like uninterrupted and this is really driving the price higher. And I think there's also so much BTC leaving off exchanges, so there's actually a scarcity factor happening now. But again, it's still being offset right now. But nevertheless, we would think we're going to grind higher from here.
- [07:08]
Yago
I think I can shed some color on why, why this is happening now. Put yourself in the seat in the position of someone who has been sitting for the last 14 years on a th000 BTC or 10,000 BTC BTC. Are you going to take that BTC and put it onto an exchange? You've held it up until now. You went through Mount Gox, you went through the exchange hacks that happened even before Mt. Gox that no one even remembers. You went through a decade and a half of holding. And the reason you bought into bitcoin in the first place was because you were paranoid and libertarian. And finally two things have happened. One, you look at where bitcoin is going and you say to yourself, well, I don't know if this is the libertarian dream anymore. It's governments and its institutions. Maybe this isn't my thing. Your wife is saying to you, we are worth $100 million. What on earth are you doing? We are worth a billion dollars. I want to buy something. And OTC traders are saying to you, for the first time ever, you can take that BTC and convert it to $100 million without putting on exchange. And so this is the reason that over the last six to eight months we've been seeing those early holders finally sort of willing to take that step and, and sell bitcoin. It's not all of them, it's not even most of them, but you only need a few 10,000 BTC wallets and a few hundred thousand BTC wallets for the OTC market to be able to absorb it.
- [08:48]
Alex
Yago, I mean, when did you buy your first Bitcoin? Remind me.
- [08:52]
Yago
2011.
- [08:54]
Alex
Yeah, so, I mean, you've been there, so. God, I hate you.
- [08:56]
Yago
I mean, these. These are the guys, you know, these are the guys who came up with. I told you, right?
- [09:01]
Alex
I was gonna say, so you know these. But that was my next question was like, so you know, you, you to kind of know the people that were around at that time. I'm just kind of curious. How many of these unknown billionaires do we have walking around in crypto? I know, it's a lot, right? They're not making any Forbes lists, They're not being touted as these wild geniuses. But man, there's a lot of people. And you won't know, by looking at.
- [09:27]
Yago
Their wallets, you've got two or three Boeing 747s full of them.
- [09:34]
Alex
Okay? That's a respectable amount of them. If 25% decide to sell a thousand bitcoin here and there. Right. Even selling 20% of your stack, if you have 50,000 bitcoin, 10,000 bitcoin is a lot of selling. Right? So it makes sense. Wow. I mean, that's a pretty. Pretty astounding thought, Marcus. I mean, is that basically aligned with how you're thinking about this?
- [09:58]
Marcus
Yeah. I mean, I work for some prominent Chinese miners, you know, who were also very early. And, you know, maybe they have, you know, 100,000, maybe they have 500,000, you know, BTC. But of course, they want to be. I mean, of course this person is, like, known. But I think there are a lot of people who want to be quiet. And I think, you know, Yago said it absolutely correctly. The people that are entering now bitcoin are very different than the people that entered bitcoin early on. So the game has a little bit changed, and now you got liquidity, but also you have, like, you know, OTC deaths that actually have the. The size. Right. I mean, you know, last cycle, maybe you still would have needed to send your BTC to an exchange, which, you know, you probably didn't want to do. But I think now there is, like, a quiet exit. But it's also the market cap has increased a lot, right? We know that $950 billion has entered Bitcoin, has been put. Put into bitcoin. You know, we are now at 2.2 trillion. So that's sort of like a multiplier of, let's say, two and a half times. So it takes actually a lot of money to push the price, you know, materially higher from here. Right. So, for example, last year, we got $380 billion being moved into bitcoin. And that was, you know, compared to 2021, which was like 300 billion. So that's, of course, a lot of money. But of course, when you analyze the money that has been moved this year, we are around, like, 290 billion. So again, we were 380 billion. We had 290 billion. So this is a little bit less than last year. And that's why we're not pumping so hard. Right? So it's really this distribution. But there is a lot of activity happening, you know, on the surface, and I think it seems very quiet, but of course, there's big people coming in, and they're really buying. And there's no sign that these people kind of diminish. It's just a matter of, you know, at one point, you know, as Yago was saying, you know, when do these people have enough money to kind of like step away and say like, you know What, I sold 20%, why don't I keep the rest and you know, see how things are going.
- [11:50]
Yago
I think it's also there's another wrinkle to the story which is that using the word cell is not necessarily accurate here. A lot of them are maintaining and actually for the first time ever, if you, if you're sitting, if you're sitting on 3000 BTC, right, you're not, you're not huge, right? You're sitting at 3000 BTC. What opportunity? And you, I don't know, maybe you're, you know, you could be a car mechanic for all we know, right? How are you going to increase that stack? For the first time ever, there's an opportunity for you to maintain BTC exposure and actually increase it. So if you go now and you are able to put together a deal with one of these treasury companies where you come in early in the pipe, but in the form of BTC, your 3,000 BTC is suddenly worth 5,000 BTC, 6,000 BTC and you get to maintain.
- [12:44]
Alex
Your exposure 30,000 BTC.
- [12:47]
Yago
Yeah, so, so, so this is a remarkable opportunity. And the thing is there's a bit of a race now. What are we going to run out of first? These giant whales or the treasury companies that want to purchase from them? Everyone is anticipating that the premiums are going to be compressed, but we could find ourselves in two or three months in a situation where the premiums actually spike because these companies are no longer able to find more people who are willing to do a sort of in kind investment in the form of btc.
- [13:22]
Alex
Yeah, brand new. Actually broke that down here on my podcast on Sunday because he was being pitched some of these treasury companies. I've seen him as well, but obviously I haven't dug in as deeply. But it was exactly what you just described. He was talking about one of the Ethereum ones and he was like, look at all the investors. These are all the most like publicly large funds that hold Ethereum. So all they're doing is sending their Ethereum in via pipe, as you said, and then they get stopped immediately in a new public company because it's reverse merger and the stock already exists and now their 1000 Ethereum or 10,000 is immediately worth four times and they're liquid. So you can either exit Ethereum entirely if you wanted to go buy Bitcoin or do something wise like that. Or you just compound your stack four times or you just buy back, you get back your Ethereum and now are playing with the house's money with three times as much more money.
- [14:11]
Yago
I'll add one more wrinkle to this. In the US you can make an in kind investment which is not a taxable event. In other words, if these people sold their BTC in any other way, it would be a taxable event. They would have to pay. You just made a billion dollars, you're going to have to pay, you know, $300 million in taxes. But if you do it in this way, there's no taxable event. So a whole weird constellation of regulatory and market circumstances have come together to make this an extremely attractive and interesting moment. Right.
- [14:44]
Alex
Presumably you have a taxable event if you sell the stock. Obviously, yes, but you don't need to. You can borrow against the stock.
- [14:51]
Yago
The stock is publicly tradable.
- [14:53]
Alex
You can borrow 10x your Bitcoin. You borrow against the stock, you pay a very low interest rate because it's a publicly traded equity. Buy, borrow, die, repeat for your future generation. There you go, Marcus. Bitcoin treasury companies, what do you think of them?
- [15:09]
Marcus
As you said there, they're more and more coming. Right. I think it's really interesting. I mean this was supposed to be the retail, you know, liquidity event where retail investors can get out. I think of course now there's this, you know, a little fomo. I think that's going to happen because you know, I think what exactly what's going to happen now is really that the buying doesn't seem to stop because you know, we're seeing also of course this risk on the equity market. So there is this feel good factor and it seems to work. Right. I mean, I think there is a race to become as big as, you know, microstrategy because then you can, you know, type in or tap into the kind of like the debt markets and everything. Of course it will be very difficult for everybody, you know, to achieve this. But you know, the way I always looked at it is that, you know, we might not really know what Bitcoin actually is or what it does or what people are going to do with it. Right. I mean, you know, the gentleman here can maybe, you know, enlighten us if there's more things going to come there. But I think I looked at it always like, you know, like, like, like Apple Right. If you would have bought Apple shares 20 years ago, you would have no idea about, you know, the iPhone and all the apps. It's to going, going to come and maybe, you know, more is going to come on bitcoin, right? I mean, you know, there can be more functionality, there can be more smart contract, right? I mean this is, you know, one upgrade away basically, right? And I think, you know, there can be like a scarcity where, where something, you know, new is going to be developed and you're going to be implemented and then, you know, people are going to wish they had some, you know, collateral that is really pristine. So I think everybody can see this. And, and it's really interesting that you got these corporates because the corporates must have like an end game and the end game is not just sort of like just stored, right? There must be an end game to really use it and you know, really make, make more use of it. So that's, I think it's going to be interesting. I'm not sure about that.
- [16:52]
Yago
I think, I think yes, at some point that is going to happen, but actually they don't even need that to be their end game because it's this Bitcoin is this weird sort of beneficial Ponzi scheme and these companies are effectively able to take advantage of a situation where you've got this incredibly recursive or reflexive system. The more micro, microstrategy buys, the more value it accrues. The more it buys, the more Bitcoin becomes scarce. So it actually accrues value in two ways. One, it holds more Bitcoin and two, the value of that bitcoin goes up. And with that, additionally, frequently premiums go up. So you can imagine a scenario where as these companies get bigger and bigger and as more of them emerge, there's more and more demand for Bitcoin and that demand swamps supply because I think we're coming to the end of the supply now, at least these very, very large tickets that we're willing to sort of finally, after 14 years, think about the psychological fracture that happens there, right? There's only so many that that's going to happen with. And so this is why I say bitcoin right now is a coiled spring. And so as that price rises, it becomes a larger and larger part of the market. The, the, the, the value, the, the, the, the demand outstrips supply and these companies start to be the best performers and can be the best performers for years in on the Nasdaq and now they're also starting to Enter the New York Stock Exchange. So I, I don't know. The, the big question is, do the premiums compress? But this game can go on, I think a lot longer than people think.
- [18:45]
Alex
Yeah, I think it's a bubble, but doesn't mean it's the beginning of the bubble. I mean, the beginning of the bubble. That, that's. Yeah, I mean that's what I've kind of been saying. Yeah, I mean this, it's not going to end well for most of these companies, but that doesn't mean it ends badly for Bitcoin. I don't know. Why would it end badly for the share. Well, for the shareholders of those companies. I don't mean MicroStrategy or even the new ones. I've said this over and over again. It's like Bitcoin, treasury company number 74 and 83 and 99 that come in at the top of the bull market. But the question is, will there actually be demand for those stocks that everyone.
- [19:23]
Yago
Who is investing now makes money?
- [19:25]
Alex
Yeah.
- [19:26]
Yago
And that it ends badly because at some point somebody is going to be investing at the pico top of the premium. Right. But that could be months away, could be years away. We don't know. So.
- [19:38]
Alex
And we have premium spreads from like 1.5 all the way up to 9 something depending on the treasury company. So.
- [19:45]
Yago
Yeah, I don't know. I mean when I, when we initially saw this happening, I was extremely skeptical because I don't believe in perpetual motion machines. But honestly, the dollar has been a perpetual motion machine and the US government has been a perpetual motion machine for longer than we've been alive.
- [20:01]
Alex
So markets can remain rational longer than you can remain solvent as very well.
- [20:07]
Marcus
Don't forget that microstrategy, you know, the volume peaked in, you know, November at $40 billion trading volumes. Really? I think the, the share price was something like 540. So the, you know, there was massive volume going on. So somebody has bought the, the top there, there was, you know, more than 50% then the market cap. So I think some people are already underwater. I think, you know, with Meta Planet, you know, it trades at what, at a 600 premium or something. You know, I think some retail investors will certainly lose. And I think, you know, it was alluded earlier. Yes, you need to get in early if you can, you know, send your BTC or your ease, you know, in kind and get in early. It makes a lot of sense. But I think for a lot of people, you know, buying, buying it at, you know, 2x the value of BTC certainly does not make, make a lot sense in my view. But you know.
- [21:04]
Alex
I mean, I tend to agree that it's relatively early. I think Meta Planet is a bit of an outlier because it's basically the only way to get institutional bitcoin exposure in Japan. Right. And so I think the ones that launch in countries where there's no ETFs or real institutional exposure are likely to do really, really well. We have to talk about this article because it's you, Marcus. 133K by September. Talk to us about this target because we love that.
- [21:35]
Marcus
No, actually this is not my target. It must have been somebody else, you know, mentioned within the audience research that's.
- [21:40]
Alex
You told that I, you know, it's.
- [21:42]
Yago
You, Marcus, but back away from it now.
- [21:48]
Alex
It must be true. I said it, I said it on a show, so it has to be true.
- [21:51]
Marcus
Maybe it came out today. Okay. So yes, okay, this is, I thought it was a different article. So basically, when bitcoin makes a new all time high or a new kind of three months high, the average return is something like 20 over, over two months. Right. So if we look at the last 10 signals, you know, going back the last two, two, three or two and a half years, that that's really what it brings to target. So it was really the new three months high which we just achieved really. And then the average return is 20% over the next two months. That's where this kind of statistic comes from. But we also, in, you know, we also in September where you have 9% returns usually. So I think there's a lot of seasonality going on and usually bitcoin kind of performs relatively poorly in, in August and in September. That's usually some seasonality. But of course maybe this time it's like skewed because, you know, we had the big equity correction, you know, in Q2, basically, and then we had the ramp up and of course there's a scrambling to put money to work and of course there is this, you know, big momentum against the Fed. Right. It's not just, it's not just, you know, Trump. There's also, you know, Senator Loomis is against it now, against, against Powell. So I think there is this moment where people are expecting that the Fed will cut rates and that's of course going to be, you know, quite, quite positive for the market. I think the question really is how long Powell can, you know, hold the dam here. But I think the market will expect the rate cut in September. So we can actually rally you know, through the summer. Basically, that's what we are looking at. And again, it's based on statistics, and statistics indicate, you know, that we can have a 20% move here over the next two months.
- [23:38]
Alex
I want Yaga's boring summer. I like that.
- [23:42]
Marcus
I think we all, we all wanted the boring summer, you know?
- [23:45]
Alex
Yeah. I mean, I guess really most of.
- [23:47]
Yago
Us, we won't get it. We never get what we want.
- [23:52]
Alex
Oh, no. Bitcoin is at 111. This sucks. Yeah, that doesn't generally tend to work out well. Like, I needed to buy much lower. It's not the, not, not the position that I think you necessarily want to be in. We have to quickly talk about one more thing, because this is seemingly the story. Pump Fun pre sale sparks backlash. Overhyped ICO or calculated cash out for those who missed it?
- [24:14]
Yago
Why not both?
- [24:16]
Alex
Pump Fun is they're going public, creating a token. They're going crypto public this weekend. I think it's about a $4 billion valuation. I think, actually based on the amount of money that they make, that might not be entirely unreasonable, but it's hilarious. When their CEO or co founder or someone was tweeting about it, he's literally like, hey, time for our final exit pump.
- [24:39]
Marcus
Yay.
- [24:39]
Alex
Like, they're just saying all the quiet parts out.
- [24:43]
Yago
Pumpkin fun. Over the last week, Lost went from having 80 market share on Solana for their sort of meme coin launches to having less than 20%. I'm, I'm trying to remember the name of the.
- [25:03]
Alex
Something bonk related, but I don't really pay much attention. But I saw that bonk.
- [25:08]
Yago
Yeah, it seems, you know, but the, the, so, but, but the point is, you know, how sustainable, what kind of moat does Pump Fun have? So I, I, I think it's been an extremely profitable business, ridiculously profitable, just printing cash. And this could be an indication that even those within the pump project, you know, feel like, all right, it's time to, it's time to cash out.
- [25:48]
Alex
Yeah. Marcus, quick thoughts before I let you go.
- [25:51]
Marcus
Yeah, I mean, I think definitely that that's really the worry. Right. And I think everybody thinks that the meme coin cycle is over, but over the last couple of months, I mean, they still have made like, $30 million per, you know, per month. Really? So in, in profit. So that's really like, you know, 400 million per year. And I think when you compare to, like, radium, you know, pumped up from trades, even at 4 billion, a lot cheaper. So it could theoretically and still surprise everybody. And go to like 8 billion. Really? Right. I think it could, could double just because people look at, you know, the, the moment of hyper liquid. You know, a lot of people wish they would have bought more, would have gotten more. They've gone early. I think, you know, also if they raise a billion dollars, I mean, they can do a lot of money, right? They can clean it up a little bit. They can, you know, you know, change a lot of things. And, and again, I think, you know, who knows how long this, you know, bonked up fun or something is going to last or who else is going to come there. So. So we never know. But I think, you know, anything that really makes good money and I think it's really not that frequent, you know, in crypto these days because there's a lot of protocols that are making like zero money and I have zero value. So who knows, right? I mean, this whole kind of like live streaming, you know, is still in the math. I mean, it's still going strong. And I think, yes, I think the whole thing crumbled down when the Trump coin came out. All the exchanges listed it at 60, $70 and a lot of people lost a lot of money. But nevertheless, I think the volumes have been holding up quite well. So the money is still going on there and I think it's relatively cheap at 4 billion, I would say.
- [27:23]
Alex
Yeah. When can we launch Bitcoin Fun on pos?
- [27:29]
Yago
Yeah, I think that Pump Fun should have, you know, they're, if they're raising a billion, they're going to have to have the institutional arm so that, you know, corporates can start launching their own meme coins.
- [27:42]
Alex
Oh my God. Can you imagine the Jamie diamond memes? I just can't wait, guys. Iago Marquez, thank you so much as always. Everybody give them a follow right down below. I will see you guys. See you next week. I go, Marcus. See you soon. Thank you, gentlemen.
- [27:55]
Yago
Thank you very much.
- [27:57]
Marcus
See you guys.
- [27:58]
Alex
Few quick notes as I bring on Dan in a second. I was Talking through my AirPods at the beginning like a jackass. I was so deeply admiring my new camera that I forgot to check my audio. So I was. This mic was a prop there for about the first half if you notice an audio issue. And B, is that yesterday's video? For the first time ever, I got a got removed and a warning for harmful and like dangerous content or something. They don't tell you why we did a deep dive on Chat GPT. I think it's because maybe we used like two capital letters in the headline that Said erupt and explode or something. So I guess we're just gonna go with less hyperbolic titles so that I don't get removed. I hope it's not like we're being attacked by people who don't like us. That happens where people just report you like repeatedly. Yeah. The video from yesterday is not there because it was apparently harmful and abusive for me to say, are altcoins going to ex erupt with a question mark? Like a question to which we decided probably not by the way, for anyone who watched the video. Anyways, we could ask Dan, I guess, you know, Dan, I'm gonna. We have to be calm. Can't say anything more abusive.
- [29:07]
D
We'll keep our a low voice.
- [29:09]
Alex
Just.
- [29:09]
D
Just on that note, we had one of our popular YouTube videos attacked by Russian bots that all downvoted it. You could see the analytics in like one night. 90% of the down votes on that video all took place. And so there's definitely, you know, YouTube wars that go on behind the scenes. But hopefully.
- [29:27]
Alex
Did you. Did you dispute it and did you have any success asking for a friend? Not for me.
- [29:31]
D
Yes and no. Of course not. No. No success.
- [29:35]
Alex
I have 90 days where I can't like use exclamation points or capital letters I guess. I don't know. But literally if I get another warning like my channel's down for a week and then another one and you're gone, like it's a big deal. It is.
- [29:47]
D
And yeah, it's very. It's a very helpless feeling because it's such a giant company.
- [29:52]
Alex
Well guys, make sure to follow me on X because we'll still stream everything there. If that for some reason does happen, we would not stop. But yeah, I guess it was an explicit title as someone just said in the comments. Let's take a look at the charts here. What are you looking at? We have this tap of the all time high obviously. Yep.
- [30:07]
D
So the bulls are trying to confirm it. Again, it's just very similar to back here where we went straight up. We pull back and hold weekly EMA 12 and then we came up. Obviously we don't want the same thing to happen. That was a break zero follow through. We want, you know, I want 114 plus to at least get a couple percent of follow through. But it's very similar straight up. Go back to the EMA 12 and this is the attempt at that continuation. So again, no red flags at the moment. We're pulling back to back test 110.6 thousand. Was this resistance level we broke out, we back tested it yesterday and here we come again. You know, if we were to head back down into the 109s, it would be a little bit, you know, really essentially what it boils down to in the short term is do we get a break with follow through or do we trade sideways still, you know, through July into August, within this range. And maybe that's not a bad thing. We know so many times in prior bullshit markets sideways bitcoin is good for altcoins and that's a possibility. I've definitely heightened my watch on ETH recently and a lot of that has to do with the narratives we've been talking about. All the money pouring into these treasury companies and those treasury companies have topped out for now. Generally when you shoot straight up, you get a 40% guaranteed pullback. 40 to 60% is what it usually ends up being. And you got bmnr, you know, with its top is in for a while and you know, CRCL had that top for a while. We've got BT, all these little companies, BTCs tops in and some of that has to do with dilution. You know, that's part of the factor. These are all trading vehicles for me, these stocks. I am not, I'm not even swing trading them. They're day trading vehicles for me because of the added risk, because of the volatility. I just want my little, you know, give me my 5%, 10%, 5%. I'm just going to keep doing that. And it does appear there's rotation going on where, okay, two days ago, these names top out and then you get, you know, the nice move in BTC and ETH yesterday. And you know, this is the first time a couple days ago where I've highlighted to our stock traders, hey, it's time to look at ETH here because the narrative and you know, Etha, Ethu, these different vehicles to try and see this rotation taking place. And we've been talking about this ETH BTC chart for a long time and breaking this level would be very significant for me because again, that would be the first weekly uptrend that has confirmed on this chart in years and that stands out if it happens. And so we're heading up towards that zone and it's the same question, you know, can we break it or are we just going to trade sideways through the summer? And you know, it's always nice as a bull when the lesser case scenario, the worst case scenario is, is tightening up, you know, because yeah, that's fine.
- [32:50]
Alex
Bigger breakout, like longer Compression, greater expansion. Right. Yeah. I like the BTC chart here. Just going quite quickly back to btc. I think this is like if you want the doom chart which is not doom at all but like it's the you know, we saw. I think people have PTSD from a $65,000 high last cycle to a, you know, sub 30 barely makes an all time high and then you know, back down for, for a bear market. Well right now we have something that should not be. I don't think it's going to be for a lot of people watching this and saying it. As you said, it needs to close higher. It can't just sweep this and be another like monthly wick and you know, come back down. That would not be, not be ideal.
- [33:28]
D
Yeah, that's you know I never like to see breaks without follow through. And in the last bunch of years I've actually incorporated it into part of my trading style where flags break with no follow through indicating a reversal. You know you dump and then you bear flag, you get the lower low with no follow through and then that's a shift. And so we obviously don't want that to be happening at the top. But as any good trader will do, you could say, okay, I'm bullish, everything's pointing to bull. I gotta put on my bear glasses and look at it from a bear perspective and just ensure that I don't get blindsided or you know, get steeped in my, my bias. So it's something we're watching for. And again, you know we would need to really, we would have to break 98000 for there to be major red flags. But for me, if we get, if we head back down under 107, that tells us, you know, we can, we can be tightening up for a good number of weeks further.
- [34:20]
Alex
Yeah, I would agree with that. You know, nothing really. It's just we're basically ranging from 100 to 112 ish since 8th of May when we broke above 100 that time. So you know that, that last time I think that's pretty clear. Dan, thank you so much. Guys, give chart guys a follow up. I hope we don't get removed. I hope that you don't get contagious removal on your videos. Yeah, right. You're getting my videos the day after I was removed.
- [34:47]
D
You're getting.
- [34:48]
Alex
Although they say the safest time to fly on a plane is right after there's some incident because they tighten everything up. Right.
- [34:53]
D
So all right, I'm going to get a little liberal with my titles, all right?
- [34:57]
Alex
Yeah, don't, don't. Be careful. Watch the exclamation points and the capital letters. It could go terribly wrong for you. All right, guys, thank you so much. We'll see you back tomorrow for the Friday 5. Later. Have a good one. Let's go. Let's dope.