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Bitcoin is primed for a breakout on tailwinds that we've never seen before in this industry. Obviously that alludes to institutional and government adoption. And of course the Fed definitely cutting rates tomorrow and likely more times into 2025. We got a bunch of new ETFs that launched over the past couple of days. Spoiler, they've been really successful. And and of course we have stablecoin news across the board. And we'll discuss my interview with Michael Sailor. Let's go.
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Let's go.
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Good morning everybody and welcome to YouTube. If you have not liked the video, you should go ahead and do that. If you have not subscribed to the channel, you should also go ahead and do that. In case you missed it, I was in Las Vegas to interview Michael Saylor. I also interviewed Ivan Soto Wright, the CEO of Moonpay, randomly went on Sin City Crypto, did a couple other things while I was out there and of course had a delayed flight, landed at 1:30 in the morning, went to bed at 2, woke up at 4:30. So if you're wondering why my brain seems scattered and I'm a little tired, it's because I've probably gotten as much sleep as most people get in one night in the last three days. But let's dive into the show right now. And first I think it's worthy to talk about the conversation that I have with Sailor. We will be releasing this on my channels on Sunday as a podcast. Maybe Saturday. Saturday or Sunday as a podcast. So you can either watch it on Sailors X right here or you can wait and listen to it on my channels. We'll also be obviously editing in some of the other amazing footage from that conference and my thoughts. But here's what Taylor had to say about it. In my discussion yesterday at Money20 20 with Scott Melker, I explained why digital credit instruments like stm, trk, strf, strd, STRC are two to four times more efficient than traditional credit and how strategy has become the world's most scalable tax efficient generator of fixed income. So I'm going to give you a few takeaways from this conversation if you didn't watch it. And I can give you some inside baseball on the very brief prep that we did for this call. And prep for this call meant that today Taylor pretty much we sat down on Friday virtually and he shared a couple decks and said these are the general kind of ideas that I would like to go with, especially for this audience. So what I really noticed and what struck me in our conversations. And here, because we did actually just wing it, there was obviously no slide decks or anything. And I just asked him. The questions I wanted to ask was that this was a rare time when Saylor and myself, as a fireside chat, were headlining a conference that was not really a crypto conference at all. Money 2020 is a FinTech and payments conference, the biggest in the world. Really, really trad fi, really, really tech and really, really generally not crypto. But in this case, when you walked into the conference floor, the first booth you saw on the right was Ripple. There was a huge circle booth, there was a huge fireblocks booth. As I said, there were quite a few speakers. And on every stage when I walked past, the word that I heard over and over and over again was stablecoins. But when Sailor and I decided what we were going to do about this conversation and then when we got up on stage, it was very clear that right now he doesn't have much interest in talking about strategy stock and very minimal interest actually in talking about Bitcoin itself. The narrative now is all of the financial instruments and all the products that can be built on top of of Bitcoin and really finding new and innovative ways to create better products for institutional and retail investors that don't exist. So this talk was mostly about wildly over collateralized fixed income products that they're creating, like STRC. You know, you get 10% yield on STRC versus a 2 or 3%, maybe in a money market or in your bank account even sub 1% subtitle sometimes how safe that is, where that yield comes from. And when you actually, you know, adjust for taxes, it's like 17%. And why wouldn't people want products like that? And this was really, really engaging for the audience. I think they expected him to go up there and just scream about buying bitcoin. The other funny takeaway was that he was talking about maybe. It was three hours before our talk. We were in the press room. I was not with him. And I, you know, I saw him over talking to MacKenzie from CNBC. I just went over to say hi and she said, hey, are you going to roast Sailor today? You're going to roast him? I was like, no, I don't think I'm going to roast him. She said, well, you got to ask him tough questions. And I said, all right, I'm just going to make the entire interview about xrp. That's what I said. He laughed, she laughed. And then he said to me something really interesting. He said, scott, we should do it. But I think if we had a conversation right now about altcoins and the rest of the market, you would find my opinion has changed and that it would be very constructive. So even our most ardent bitcoin maxi and you've seen it, you know, he praising Tom Lee and talking about what's happening in the treasury space even beyond Bitcoin, a little more open minded and certainly starting to evolve. So that's a conversation I would actually look forward to having in the future. But moving on to the market and from Michael Saylor we've got the S and P is 100 points away from 7,000 and everyone is fearful apparently. Really just a sign of the times right now. You can look, this is the SPX chart. Oh look, I got some alerts from buying a salon on Ethereum using Arch Public this morning, but take a look. 6,890. It topped at over 6,900 yesterday, making new all time highs every single day. And apparently we are living in fear, which absolutely blows and boggles my mind. But I think and if you watch Macro Monday you would know this. I think that people are very confused. Half of the investors in the world think we're in the fourth turning and going into a Great Depression, while the other half think that recessions have been made illegal and we can only go up in price. But according, of course a lot of this has to do with the Fed FOMC decision at 2pm look at him. Is it that way? Hard to do it with the mirror? Yeah, we have an FOMC decision at 2. Are you bullish or bearish? I think that this is wildly priced in. Personally, we all know that the Fed's gonna probably cut a few more times this year. That was a terrible link. But here you go. Markets are pricing in a 99.5% chance of a Fed rate cut to 3.754% at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data shows 99.5. Let's one in a. What was all that one in a million talk. So you're saying there's a chance. Do I have any dumb and dumber fans out there? So yeah, there's a, there's a, you know, 50 bips. You sound smarter when you say bips instead of percentages chance that the Fed doesn't cut. So I think that once again it's not going to be about what the Fed decision does. Everybody knows exactly what they're going to do. What it's actually going to be is whether he coughs in the wrong direction or if he rubs his nose or gives a single signal, much like the illegal gambling ring that everybody's apparently been busted for of late. But it's going to be if he's hawkish or if he's dovish, or if he talks about future cuts, or if he says that we're being data dependent or all of the stupid word salad that we're so used to from Jerome Powell to make sure that he gives us no clear direction about anything that's coming, period, even when we want it. But this will be the big thing today and you can expect maybe some volatility. Although imagine, I would imagine, you know, we go like up a half a percent percent, down a half percent, end up at the same price and then nothing happens. But meanwhile, we do know there's going to be a lot of liquidity coming in. We've seen the reports that QT is ending this week, which means qe. And every indication that we have is that the Fed is about to go on a massive mission of money printing, make sure that they can send that national debt at least 40 trillion. Because like what's 38? It's not even a round number. Gotta get that national debt up. And all of those things should be very, very good for bitcoin. Honestly, I think I saw a tweet. I don't know if we brought it up, but this is I think the third time in history that the Fed has ever cut into an all time high stock market. And every time that that's happened, the market's been up 10 to 15% by a year later. So generally if you're zoomed out and looking at this, you can expect that assets are probably going to go up. But maybe the biggest news in the crypto space right now is that we got a whole bunch of new ETFs, right? So new crypto ETFs launch in crowded field despite SEC shutdown. We don't need the government to start trading ETFs in crypto. That's ridiculous. I wonder when they're going to end that whole government shutdown thing. Anecdotally, I can tell you that I was in the Las Vegas airport yesterday. Didn't seem like there were many people working at TSA. It is, is at least the 14th circle of hell in that place. It's just absolutely horrid and they need to unshut down the government. Actually, you know what has nothing to do with the government shut down. Vegas is just one of the worst places on earth. At least in the Vegas airport. But we got B sold a Bitwise Solana staking etf, which is a big deal because we've been waiting for staking inside ETFs and we still don't have an Ethereum staking ETF. We also got an Ethereum HBAR ETF, which I know everybody was very, very excited about. I saw the HBAR price had gone up like 16%. But yeah, man, we're, we're starting to see it. I think we're getting the grayscale Solana ETF launching today. And listen, we were wondering, hey, will there be any hunger for these? Will anybody want these Things? B SOL ETF sees 69.5 million in net inflows on its first day. It's a big number. You don't think that's a big number? Because we always talk about Bitcoin spot ETF numbers, but holy hell, the Bitwise Invest Salana ETF set a new New York Stock Exchange record today. Number one in trading volume across all 850 ETF debuts in 2025. So yes, we remember how successful the Bitcoin Spot ETF launches were. This pales in comparison obviously to those. And then even ETH A I think was larger than this, but those were in 2024. So in 2025, of all 850 ETFs that have debuted, the Solana ETF was the most successful. So I would think that's an indication that there's been an appetite for these things. I honestly, I didn't think there was going to be so much excitement about these because we have so many Solana treasury companies already and that kind of pre the ETF approval, but very clear that there is still a thirst for this. And we're also, if you're wondering why we could be primed for a breakout here, I brought this up the other day. Spooky season. Bitcoin options worth record 31 billion set to expire on Halloween. We tend to see some volatility when I, when we have the expiry. But you also kind of see price suppression very often in the week leading up to it. I would say we're trading in a very tight range right now and then things tend to go up. And another indication, Bitcoin funding, binance funding rates turn positive. Is a new rally beginning. Love that we have to have these questions when Bitcoin's like 115 grand or 112 or 113, like it's a really high price. People think we're in a bear Market it's crazy. Finance funding rates turn positive is a new rally beginning since October 22, 2025 the metric has stayed positive suggesting renewed support for binance bitcoins. I literally can't even read the words bitcoin and binance right now. I'm so tired. Recovery on both spot and derivatives markets. But you can see that price tends to follow when we have this metric going positive. And that is the case right now. I would say a lot of this obviously when you look at binance also has to do with people re entering after everybody was liquidated. Now we have a lot of news here on stablecoins. With 135 billion of U S treasuries, Tether is now the 17th largest holder of U S debt, passing also South Korea soon in Brazil. Watch out Brazil, we're coming for you. Yeah, I think it's fair to say after being at Money20 20 that stable coins are the killer app for crypto technology. And if only there was some guy who shows up on YouTube and has literally been saying that for like five years. This guy what has two thumbs and is and talking about stablecoins? This guy. But yeah, man, stable coins are eating the financial system. I showed you that stat the other day. That StableCoin volumes was 46 trillion. I think last year 46, 48 somewhere in that ballpark. Three times the Visa network and over half of ACH and the literal like world financial system. And that was before the genius act and before people even knew what stablecoins were. Tether is going to absolutely explode and they will end up being one of the probably top five largest holders of US debt stable coins for better or for worse. And no matter what bitcoiners want to believe they are hyper fiat, hyper dollarization of the world. It's kind of like the antithesis of bitcoin to be honest. The good news is that Paolo is a bitcoiner and tether buys a whole lot of bitcoin and mines a whole lot of bitcoin. And they really love bitcoin. But make no mistakes, stable coins are helping the fiat that bitcoin is meant to rage against. And in other stablecoin news I did not see on my bingo card literally ever Western Union to launch USDPT. You're down with USDPT. You know me, stablecoin on Solana in 2026. So first of all, like western union I'm pretty sure still is the pony express. Like they guys on horses and carriages just run on down to run on down to the next Town and deliver your money. But Western Union's been around for 4,792 years. Don't quote me on that, but Western Union is like the oldest predatory middleman payments company on the planet. They charge you like 10, 15 to send your money remittances. This is a very, very popular service, obviously, mostly unfortunately for people who can't afford to pay those absolutely ridiculous fees. And why would you, in a world where there's stablecoins. But they're launching a stablecoin, which means they saw what happened to Kodak and Blockbuster and they don't want to be those guys, but they're doing it on Solana. If ever. You finally wanted an indication that maybe the Solana thing isn't just meme coins and nonsense and. And speculation and traders. This is the part that wasn't on my bingo coin because we've seen everybody talk about eth for decisions like this and announcements. A Western Union stablecoin on Solana. This is about as big of a signal, I think, for the stablecoin space and world that you can possibly get this actually broke. I think at Money20 20, the Western Union CEO said this while we were there. The thing is, I. I actually don't care about conferences or what people are saying at them. I kind of hate them a little bit. I was only convinced to go, obviously, because Sailor asked and that seemed like a really cool opportunity and something to do. But, like, I don't know how people just like, sit in the audience of conferences when every piece of information you're seeing is readily available on the Internet and you can sit there in your underwear and like, listen to podcasts, which is like, these are live podcasts that are planned. But I digress. But yeah, this was announced at that conference. And of course Visa to expand stablecoin support across four blockchains. Another company that is pretty screwed when it comes to stablecoins. As I told you, stablecoins last year, 3x the Visa network already. But Visa has been a bit ahead of the curve for quite a while here trying to adopt this technology, knowing that it's going to disrupt their whole shit. These companies are so screwed unless they use Stable Coins. And Stable Coins are so easy to integrate. And we're seeing different ways for everybody to integrate them. Right? Like Circle is building their own Layer one arc to do it. Stripe is building their own layer one to do stablecoins. And every one of these companies is now needing a stablecoin plan because why the hell would you ever, like, use ach Or Swift when I can send you five bucks with no fees. Right now, a good luck wiring five bucks to your buddy in Tanzania through the banking system. That is not going to work. Visa getting on board. Staying on board here. Now we got to talk about a little bit of politics. Senate Democrats are butthurt. No, that's not what I'm saying. Says Senate Democrats are butthurt. No. Moving to condemn Trump's pardon of cz. Like, how do you move to do it? They say a crypto industry executive getting a free pass after a guilty plea sends the wrong signal. I didn't even look who signed it. Like, what's the point? We know it's all Elizabeth Warren one way or another. You can have your feelings on CZ and his pardon, but, like, at the end of the day, the dude literally pled guilty to a violation of the Bank Secrecy act by not putting the proper precautions in place for Binance to deal with money laundering. Nobody's ever gone to jail for something like that before. J.P. morgan and Wells Fargo have paid tens of billions of dollars in penalties for doing much worse stuff within the Bank Secrecy act for, I don't know, being Epstein's banker, and for wild violations, and for laundering money, literally, for cartels and criminals all around the world. But, yeah, it's a big deal that CZ didn't run Binance in a way that they thought was appropriate in a world where the laws to do it for Binance didn't even exist. And, oh, by the way, the dude is not American. But anyways, they're super butthurt about cz, obviously. And you may have seen this tweet from Elizabeth Warren. I'll start there. CZ pleaded guilty to a criminal money laundering charge and was sentenced to prison. But then he financed President Trump's stablecoin and lobbied for a pardon. Today he got it. If Congress does not stop this kind of corruption, it owns it. Okay, cool story, bro. You might notice there's a little community note down there. And if you're wondering how that community note happened is because I posted this. Well, this part of it. I posted this tweet that went wildly viral, and then I submitted it to our people at Twitter. For a community note, maybe. Shame on you. Senator CZ Binance did not plead guilty to money laundering. He pled guilty for causing Binance to violate the Bank Secrecy act by failing to implement an effective anti money laundering program. Ocean of difference between the two. She's such a disingenuous butthole. She's so unlikable. But she can't even make a point by telling the truth. It's not what happened. And you can be mad about it. And to be honest, like, I can see if people look at it and there is a relationship with Trump, and I think the timing was bad. I don't think the optics of this are great for Trump. I think they make things more difficult for the industry. But let's not lie about what the dude did or what he got punished for. And once again, yes, he's getting pardoned, but he already went to jail and. And they already paid all of the fines. So in the comments, we had a lot of people being like, hey, cz, you should, should. You know, you should maybe sue or something. Binance founder CZ to file defamation lawsuit against anti crypto US Senator Elizabeth Warren if she does not retract her false statements. Listen, I was. I'm only taking very minimal credit for this. Obviously, I might have pushed him a little bit, but, like, getting fire Gary Gensler trending for months and having any little bit of making Elizabeth Warren have a bad day, maybe, like, outside of marriage and having children, the greatest accomplishments of my very long career here in life and in crypto. But it would be absolutely just astoundingly amazing if this actually happens. I don't care if he wins. I just want her to have to deal with it. I want to know that she woke up this morning and was like, God damn it, I should not have sent that tweet. I'm so stupid. Why'd I do that? I knew I was lying. Right? Like, doesn't it just like. And I'm not someone who, like, takes joy in other people's unhappiness. Unless those other people are Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gensler. And I know that Gary Gensler would wake up some morning and be like, damn it, get this hashtag out of here. Oh, man, this woman out of control. Okay, moving on from a. Lizzie. Lizzie. Justin. Germany's second largest party afd. Yeah, you know me. Introduced a motion to build a bitcoin reserve. Sweet. Listen, I don't know if these things pass, but there's obviously some serious momentum right now around the strategic bitcoin reserve narrative in multiple countries, all over this amazing world of ours. And it's not just them. Not just them. French lawmakers to review motion to ban CBDCs and promote Bitcoin stablecoins and national crypto reserves. Could France become Europe's next crypto hub? Probably not, because France, like, from what I hear, and nothing against the French people. But I hear France just sucks right now. Most places suck right now if we're being fair. So I don't want to be unfair to France but like people I know who live in France are like this sucks. So I'm just going to take their word for it as opposed to my own. But obviously Germany and France, those are, last time I checked those are big, pretty big countries that matter. And whether these things pass or not, the fact that this is now on the docket shows exactly the Trump effect of the executive order of a strategic bitcoin reserve. And for any have not been following the United States like has a pretty big strategic bitcoin reserve right now because we're the United States and when we want to get bitcoin we just go take it from people and then we keep it. Doesn't even matter whose it is. It's amazing. We were like hey there's this Cambodian guy and he's doing a scam on people around the world. None of which are probably American. And he's also a Chinese national. We're just going to take his bitcoin. We're going to hold on to that for you forever. It's good to be the United States. It's good to be the king as, as, as we know. And Australia, which is not only a country but a continent. I learned that in middle school. Australia's financial regulator has released long awaited crypto guidance says bitcoin and some NFTs aren't financial products while stablecoins tokenized securities and staking services are. And honestly Australia news just gives us one more excuse to quote dumb and dumber as I did earlier and say put another shrimp on the barbie. Yeah. Austria, you guys have seen diamond time, right? I don't need to go any deeper into this but we have three of the largest economies in the world talking about crypto in a 24 hour period. You guys might want to get some of this stuff, you know like just in case it catches on, you might want to consider grabbing some of this stuff. And of course before we, we do have Chris today. So I'm gonna bring them out in a minute. But gotta tell you about Aptos first. Hundreds of millions flowing in over 1 billion now on chain made to move money. Everyone will learn there is no better home for stablecoins than Aptos. Top stablecoin supply changes. Aptos, the third largest for stablecoins right now on the planet. Might wanna start using these stablecoin things just in case they catch on. Pretty big deal. It's a pretty big deal. Before I bring Chris on, the one last thing I wanted to talk about. I got asked this question so many times at Money20 20, which was strange and I did do a podcast there where I was the guest and people. Actually, I'm just going to bring Chris on. We're going to talk about this really quick before we go. No, because I had, I've had a lot of people ask, you know, the four year cycle and are we still in a bull market or is this a bear market? And people very confused about sentiment. And I thought pretty deeply about this and I gave it a couple times. This has been for most people the worst bull market ever, right? So I think unless you're an expert trader, which very few people we know are, but generally if you had a plan for this cycle or you've seen Bitcoin go from 17,000 up to 126,000, unless you were simply one of those people who dollar cost averages and buys bitcoin and waited and they're just holding and have been a smart investor. Almost everybody has found a creative way to lose a shit ton of money in this bull market again. And we didn't have an FTX or a Celsius or any of those things necessarily. But it's very hard to find someone who's been around for a long time who's made money. And that's because first bitcoin went up and altcoins kind of have it right? So all the people who are waiting for their altcoin to finally make its 100x move that they' holding in 2017, that just hasn't happened. So we didn't get the alt season as of yet that many anticipated. And then we had this massive treasury company trend. And so all the like real crypto people, like I'm talking about the billionaire investors, even those guys, and I was talking to James Lavish about this, they went heavily into treasury companies, watched the stocks go way up, but by the time they actually had shares, they're all underwater. So everybody's losing money on Wall street right now too. And everybody who bought the IPOs of all of these crypto companies that have done exceptionally well in a vacuum, they're all down because they bought it like the first couple days. So everybody's getting wrecked in the stock market on crypto stocks, even though they've performed. And then we have the largest liquidation event in history, 12 times bigger than FTX. So all the crypto D gen people who were deeply in leverage and on these got liquidated on everything.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Some bull market. Really fun times.
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Yeah. What's funny about it is if you look and if you zoom out to your weekly or monthly chart, you know, if you get out of all that other stuff, you know, if you're in bitcoin, I mean, you're just moving up, right? I mean, you're moving up and then you're sideways and then you're moving up and then you're sideways, right. This monthly chart, right. Or this weekly chart right here shows everybody's been freaking out since you're, you know, the liquidation event you mentioned here and what have we done? We are sitting on that previous support here, or resistance, right. Which was in this area and this area, support here, still support here, and currently attempting to push out above the previous support here resistance area. I mean, when you zoom out, you've got bitcoin here pulling back on the rsi, right? About the same level. It's pulled back on every. A pullback here since we got going right off the bear market low here.
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You pulled back here weekly, right?
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Yeah, this is the weekly. Yeah. And every time it pulls back, it pulls back right around the same area.
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Incredible. That RSI can pull back with price at like 113 on a weekly, right. It used to be that, like, for. For weekly RSI to move, you have to have huge moves and we can just kind of go sideways and have RSI reset. Even on high time frames. It's pretty. Shows you well.
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And something else I saw on crypto Twitter here, man. God. Yeah. It's such a, you know, I gotta be honest, a lot of the. The stuff that passes as. As analysis is really just nonsense. And I feel really bad for people that are just trying to get going and trying to understand analysis. I saw somebody say, oh, yeah, you know, we need to drop below, below that liquidation event. And then our weekly rsi, I'll reset at zero and then we can go up. And I'm thinking it hasn't reset. It hasn't gotten below like that 48 area, the entire bull run for years here. Why do you all of a sudden think it needs to drop down to zero? Right? I mean, it's just, it's even the simple analysis like that that's really killing, you know, traders out there. And, and it, you know, and the traders don't know, you know, they're high. Listen, we're highly emotional, right? You and me, Scott, everybody else, we're highly emotional. That's what, you know, that's part of what makes us human. We have Emotions. And when you do that and you come into something where you have money on the line and you're not sure what you're doing right, because you really have no education, you have no experience, experience especially, you know, it's easy to get caught up in the nonsense that's pushed on social media and you end up just losing money. And, and it's really unfortunate because people are losing money that they don't need to lose. You know, again, as, as always, it's that emotion. Everybody out there thinks it's, it's, you know, Wall street manipulating them. They think it's crypto whales stealing their money. But at the end of the day, it's really just, they're losing the battle with themselves, with the, with their emotion. That is, you know, the, the number one most important thing you have to figure out because you can have great risk management, you can understand how to read liquidity flows in the market. You know, all this stuff we teach. But at the end of the day, if you can't get past your own emotions, you're not going to be able to do it because it's going to force you to do things, you know, you shouldn't be doing. And it ends up, you know, again, like you were saying, you're losing money in a bull market. But yeah, I just want to bring this up because that weekly, you know, we're right around that area where it usually pops if we get the pullback. You know, we're sitting right between these two, you know, this resistance and this support right here trying to push out higher. We've got. Jerome Powell is going to be speaking today. We've got options. I think you mentioned that earlier. Coming up, xprey coming up this week, at the end of this week, there's a lot going on here. And the thing is with the government shutdown, a lot of the big money trades based on, you know, these government numbers. I know on crypto, Twitter, they like to talk about how they're all fake numbers or whatever. That doesn't matter. What matters is the big money is trading based on them. And when you don't have those government numbers in there, you get what we have now, which is a lot more volatility, generally, because without those government numbers kind of coming in there, everybody's going off private numbers, they're going off news events, you know, headline events or whatever. And this is what you'll tend to see. So, you know, we're kind of just sitting at this point. Everybody's freaking out, and we're not really, we haven't done anything yet. Now if we zoom in a little bit local here. Let's see, that was a week. Let's zoom into the four hour here. We've got some good movement up off this low here from last Friday. Excuse me. You know, again, we caught this move up here. We got the pullback, we caught the breakout again up there. We pulled back. And so right now we've pulled back in three moves here to the, the weekly pivot. So this weekly pivot holds or this area right around here, you know, we could dip a little bit lower into this. I don't think we do, but we could. But if we're breaking out above 116, 114 here on this chart, and this is the, the Coinbase chart, Bitcoin USD. You know, our next few targets we're looking at locally are going to be that 119070 and 12714, which effectively takes us up here to, you know, we've had these large fair value gaps here coming down on this four hour. And that kind of takes you back up there through them and over to that support, over to this support and that support. And if we're doing that, you know, for me already, the fact that we've broken out above this 115, almost 116 area, that was what I was looking for to indicate that the low is likely in. So we've done that now. So I mean, for me, I'm, you know, looking upward anyway. But just based on this right here, Getting above that 116, 114 gives us those two immediate targets there and likely sends us up toward 133, really as the next bigger target. Now, do I necessarily want to get in a position this morning in, in really much of anything? Not really. I think if you're in a position and you've. And you're pretty good in profit, I think you're okay. But you know, with Jerome Powell coming up and speaking that volatility should, you know, be expected to really increase. And if you're just getting in a position, it can whips all back against you, knock you out before it continues, you know, in whatever direction it's going to go. So, you know, I'm a little hesitant always opening a position there on those F1C days.
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Why trade a news event, right? And, and the S P already kind of gapped up a little bit at the open. It's at 6,000 SPX over 6,900. So, you know, get that like anticipatory thing. And the market does something stupid, it's usually the wrong way and everybody overreacts and then it just kind of keeps doing.
- [34:29]
B
Yeah. And then again, like I said, because the government shut down and no government numbers coming out, you know, that, that, that volatility tends to be exponential. Even so you're going to get more volatility or you should expect more volatility than what you would normally expect anyway. It's just, you know, it's just the way, you know, people work. It's just the way these big companies work. But anyway, so, I mean, I'm not hating bitcoin right now. I'm looking for that next breakout higher to get up if you're not already in. I do, you know, again, I'm. Alts have been, you know, really kind of a bit more difficult. But I've got some here that I'm really kind of interested in. We were the market wrap last night. One of the altcoins I mentioned was Trump and that thing took off this morning. It's almost hit our target overnight. So that was a good one. So I won't be putting that one here, but this is Rose and Rose has this nice kind of expansion into contraction. You've got this, this bottom that's kind of gradually flattening out here. Usually that's an indication of a low forming and you're going to move up. We also have, right here we have this lower lows in price. We have higher lows here in the oscillator. So that gives us bullish divergence off these points. So I'm looking for a breakout here on Rose. If we can kind of find support here at this S1 pivot on the weekly or the weekly S1 pivot, we're looking for a breakout above that. 01717. That should give us an initial target up there. 01982 area. And then 02176 would be my next target. If we're popping up through there, I mean, I don't think it might necessarily go straight up. We could get like a move up into this supply here in this wick and a pullback and then going. But the next kind of structural target would be this 02712 area right there. So a lot of potential upside on Rose here. If we can hold support here at this weekly S1 pivot and pop up higher. I do have a couple more here. Let me see. I've got CRV right here. And so, you know, again, CRV kind of the same thing. I mean, you Know, you have to understand we're consolidating. So, you know, when you're consolidating like that, you know, pretty much anything can happen. But we pulled back again to the weekly S1 pivot. We have slightly higher lows here on price, and we've got lower lows here on the oscillator. So hidden bullish divergence, which means continuation of the bullish trend. And so if we can kind of hold this S1 pivot area and break out above 0.5709, that would be, you know, an indication to go long. And your stop loss is always going to go right below, you know, whatever I'm talking about here. It's got these pullbacks. The S1 pivot stop loss should be just below that. You know, don't. There's no reason to put it way down here. It makes no sense. Just put it right there below that. But if you get that breakout, the targets up there are 0.7757775 and 0.8450. So 84 and a half cents there would be my two local targets getting here. By the way, if we hit these targets, I'm talking about on these, then what you're going to be looking at is that the low is. Is all but guaranteed to be in. I mean, you should be definitively long looking for longs for alts if this happens, if these kind of happen here. And then we've got H. No, we got ZK here, ZK zk. You know, I thought was interesting. Again, we got the pullback to the weekly S1 pivot and all these. If you notice, we're resetting the stochastic RSI here. This one has this very clearly defined kind of resistance coming down right prior to the pivot. So impulsive breakout and close above that, really above the pivot, I would say above the descending resistance, but the pivots right there. So go ahead and say above 0.035 should have us heading higher and within that. I mean, you can look initially if you want. You can look right around this. Whoops. Right around. Whoops. Let me see here. I can't get this pulling in right around this. What is this area right here? 0.04. That. That would be like an initial kind of target area. But I think if we're getting this break out here, I think we're running it up here toward this previous kind of resistance area just prior to closing above this bearish fair value gap here at about 0508. Beyond that, the next target would be point 06794 on that right there. And this is ZK USD. So you know, we've got some setups here. As always, I never say, you know, hey listen, you need to go right now.
- [39:06]
A
If this happens, then you do this. It's not.
- [39:08]
B
Yeah, then you don't exactly. You put your stop loss just below that recent swing low there. I see a lot of people that try to put their stop loss, stop losses a lot lower because they're scared to lose money. You know, the, the reality is you're going to lose money. You know, as a trader I've posted, you know, I trade live with our students, you know, three times a week. I traded Monday and Tuesday. This week I posted, you know, the results of what happened. I had two wins, one loss on, on Monday and two losses, one win on Tuesday and still made, you know, decent money for both days. You can't be scared to lose money if you're trading because you're going to lose it from time to time because nobody has 100 strike. You just can't. And the strike rate isn't the most important thing. It's what is your risk adjusted return? What is your profit factor? These kind of things, those.
- [39:57]
A
Go ahead.
- [39:58]
B
Oh no, I was just gonna say it's the one thing that, you know, that traders that are new to markets tend to ignore. They think, oh, it's I've got to get everything right. And the more perfectionist you try to be, coming from somebody who was raised to be a perfectionist, the more you are, the more difficulty you're going to have in trading. You have to understand that there's, you know, beauty in that chaos. That's markets. And so your risk management becomes the most important thing you're doing out there. Your risk management then your exit, then your entry. Your entry is the third most important thing of the three. But people focus on the entry. They focus on trying to get 100 strike rate. They don't think about their risk management. They're scared to put a stop loss in there because they think their stop loss is going to get hit. Listen guys, if you're putting a stop loss in and it's getting hit consistently, that's, that's information for you. That's telling you you're not understanding structure, you're not understanding where to put your stop loss. And, but you know, again that gets people fearful. They put it really low and you know, it just becomes an all in every time they go in. No proper risk management and that's really what's hurting people more than anything else, that's what's making them lose a lot of money, unfortunately.
- [41:10]
A
Yeah, it's Trading Man. It's like Sex Panther, you know, 60 of the time. It works every time.
- [41:15]
B
That's right. That's right. I noticed you're with the, the, the movie quotes this morning. You've been hanging out with, with Mr. Andrew a little bit too much maybe.
- [41:23]
A
Maybe I'm just, honestly I'm just like dead tired and my brain is, has like reset to my most childish and like inane setting. I'm operating on like a two. So you know, when in doubt, just quote funny movies. Everyone knows. And I think today might have been my most like stumbled, confused intro I've ever done on the show. I came on, I was like, what's the word for the. It was just, it's just brutal. You know what? I show up. I showed up for two days at 6am in Vegas for this.
- [41:55]
B
There you go. There you go, right?
- [41:56]
A
That's what it is Monday without me. Do it yesterday.
- [42:05]
B
I. But, you know, here's the thing. You know, the people, you know, often look at me as just a, you know, a technical trader, which I am, right. I trade based on the chart. I don't trade on narratives, I don't trade on news events, all that kind of stuff. But you know, my background is in that, right. You know, I've got an economics background. So I understand all these things. It's just I understand them enough to know that what's going on with that is already in the charts. But, you know, people tend to want to hear it. I mean, as you can see, as you know, right, you know, people come in, they want to hear narratives, they want to hear, you know, what they believe is, you know, something outside of just what's going on the charts. They believe charts can't possibly tell you. But at the end of the day, when you understand that everything that happens not just in trading but in, in the world is based on social mood, right? When you really get jump down that rabbit hole and you start understanding that, then you understand that, listen, when it comes to markets, the, the fastest way you understand that social mood, how people are feeling, because that's going to determine what's going on is when their money is where their money's going. Is their money going in, Is there money coming out? And once you understand that, you start front running everything else that's going on. With all the news events in life as a trader, you know, it doesn't become easy, but it becomes a lot less difficult. And you know that's the key, right? We're just trying to add up our probabilities, you know, include as much of that as possible before we take a trade. So.
- [43:30]
A
Smart guy, it's the reason I learned trading from this guy. And you should, too. So check out TX West Capital, of course, on X. Everything he has. Chris, I know I owe you a WhatsApp, but we can. Maybe we'll just announce that next week. All right, Man, I don't have it. Yeah, and then we'll figure that out. And everybody else, I will be back tomorrow, hopefully better rested. That's the plan. And Chris, man, thank you so much as always. Appreciate it, buddy.
- [43:53]
B
Thank you.
- [43:54]
A
All right, guys, see you tomorrow.
- [43:56]
B
Let's dope. That's dope.