The Wolf Of All Streets

Episode: “Bitcoin PRIMED To Rally As Vanguard Launches & Fed QT Ends?”

Date: December 2, 2025

Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Andrew & Tillman (Arch), Josh Frank (The Tie)

Overview

In this episode, Scott brings together Andrew and Tillman from Arch and Josh Frank from The Tie to dissect the significance of Vanguard entering the Bitcoin ETF space, the state of institutional and retail crypto sentiment, recent market dynamics, and structural trends in crypto – including the evolution of ICOs, institutional adoption, the impact of leverage, and shifting regulatory winds. The panel debates whether the stage is set for a new Bitcoin rally as traditional finance further integrates with crypto and as Fed quantitative tightening (QT) appears to wind down.

Key Discussion Points

1. Vanguard’s Entry into Bitcoin ETFs

[00:02–05:27]

• Vanguard’s Move: The roundtable discusses whether Vanguard’s offering signals a "capitulation" of legacy finance (‘then they fight you, then you win’), or if it’s simply following BlackRock’s lead.

  • Andrew: "You can't look at your prime competitor, which is BlackRock, and see that Ibid is their most successful product...and say, maybe we shouldn't be involved here. Really, really stupid, dumb decision in the first place." [01:01]
  • Scott: Sees this as “more of the same,” with increased demand and talk, but slow institutional action.

• Customer Demand: Vanguard’s hand was likely forced by customer outcry, with many wanting direct exposure to Bitcoin alongside friends and peers.

2. Market Sentiment & Institutional Capital Flows

[02:44–08:47]

• Sentiment Disconnect: Discussion on the divergence between crypto Twitter (often extremely negative) and broader retail participation.

  • Josh: "If you looked at Twitter, then XRP would never be where it is...there are so many assets ... with incredibly negative sentiment on Twitter, but have retail communities that exist outside of X." [03:13]

• ETF Inflows Despite Price Drops: Even after a recent 6% dip, there are still inflows to Bitcoin ETFs—underlining lasting demand.

• Dry Venture Pipeline: Funds are raising dramatically less capital now than in 2021-22, suggesting limited new deployments into “everything else” besides Bitcoin.

3. Institutional Infrastructure & Buying Opportunities

[05:27–08:47]

• Current Market as Buying Opportunity:

  • Tillman: "I just look at these opportunities as excellent buying opportunities, and you're not going to nail the bottom. So stop being overzealous ... The $100,000 mark for Bitcoin was a milestone that ... we kind of treated it like it was a no big deal thing...To think that we wouldn't go back and forth and yo-yo at that price level ... that’s the classic market." [06:00–07:45]

• Long-term Institutional Adoption:

  • Widespread innovation in settlement and decentralized governance is now “out of the bag.” The panel expects gradual institutional integration at the systems level, even if retail shakes out on volatility.

4. MicroStrategy, Tether, and Sentiment as Market Drivers

[08:52–15:31]

• MicroStrategy’s Role:

  • Like a “managed call option” on BTC for the next couple of years, it will outperform in upside markets but underperform in sideways/downs due to dividend payments and time decay.
  • Potential future as a ‘Bitcoin bank’ if Basel rules change.
  • Scott: "Having a critical mass of Bitcoin will allow MicroStrategy to generate cash flow from its horde ... become a Bitcoin bank." [10:22]

• Market Perceptions:

  • Critical of simplified FUD narratives about Saylor and Tether, which are often more about sentiment than fundamental risk.
  • Josh: "Crypto is so sentiment driven... when sentiment is negative, people latch on to whatever else and it gets more negative..." [14:12]

• Tether’s Financials:

  • Tether’s risks are overblown; their BTC exposure is small (~5%), and their core revenue from treasuries remains robust.

5. Retail, Leverage & Education

[17:31–23:19]

• Retail Investor Risks:

  • MicroStrategy’s wild swings mean retail often loses more than with direct BTC exposure.
  • Product structures and leverage are often poorly understood, with exchanges irresponsibly offering 100x leverage.
  • Josh: "Anything above 10x leverage is even gambling..." [21:02]
  • Tillman: "They’re betting on volatility and you get screwed either way...Those trades you place at 100x are no different than parlay bets against the house." [21:24]

• Historical Parallels:

  • Leverage and “bucket shops” have recurred throughout financial market history, and regulators have historically stepped in after blow-ups.

6. Structural Shifts: ICOs, Coinbase, and Democratization

[38:43–54:24]

• The Monad ICO & Coinbase’s Role:

  • The Monad ICO is seen as a potential paradigm shift. Unlike 2017, it was accessible to non-accredited US investors, filled from the bottom up, with the largest single allocation just $57,000.
  • Transparency was far higher than in previous cycles.
  • Josh: "I think the approach that Monad and Coinbase took together is very cool ... They’re trying to do right by retail." [39:31–43:16]
  • Andrew: "The story is Coinbase ... They are a juggernaut ... Unless, again, they fear." [45:16]

• Broader Implications:

  • Possible regulatory change on the horizon to allow more innovation.
  • The direct listing model (as used by Coinbase itself) is breaking old investment banking cartels, giving retail actual early access.

• Future of Crypto Banking:

  • Coinbase will continue to outgrow legacy banks by offering not just custody and yield, but a flexible base for tokenized securities and DeFi integration.

• IPO/ICO Allocations & Incentives:

  • New model at Coinbase: future allocations may reward long-term holders, not just the highest bidders.

7. Traditional Banks & the Crypto Cartel War

[54:24–56:22]

• Bank Resistance & Integration:
  • Legacy banks are "fighting a multi-front war" — on one hand, building crypto products they can't ignore; on the other, lobbying fiercely to erect barriers to new entrants.
  • The large financial institutions are not monolithic; various arms may pursue conflicting or uncoordinated strategies.

8. Fed QT Ending, Liquidity & Bitcoin Trajectory

[56:27–59:00]

• Fed Liquidity Support:

  • A sense that improving liquidity (as Fed QT ends) is helping Bitcoin’s rebound from lows.
  • Tillman: "Relative percentage returns become more important the deeper we go below $100,000 ... There’s a lot of meat on the bone ... why shouldn’t I accumulate now?" [57:00]

• Volatility, Mean Reversion, and Smart Money:

  • "Big money starts moving into those types of opportunities in those positions ... that becomes a structure stronger buy floor and that becomes … a rounding bottom." [58:48]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh Frank [03:13]:
  "Sentiment on Twitter... is not always representative of retail. There are so many assets... that have incredibly negative sentiment on Twitter, but have retail communities and interests that exist outside of X."

• Tillman [07:25]:
  "$100,000 mark for Bitcoin was a... milestone ... And to think that we wouldn't go back and forth and yo-yo at that price level ... that’s the classic market, you know, that I look for, honestly..."

• Scott Melker [10:22]:
  "Having a critical mass of Bitcoin will allow MicroStrategy to generate cash flow from its horde ... become a Bitcoin bank."

• Josh Frank [21:02]:
  "Anything above 10x leverage is even gambling."

• Tillman [21:24]:
  "Those trades you place at 100x are no different than parlay bets against the house ... the house has to pay them if they lose."

• Josh Frank [39:31]: "The approach that Monad and Coinbase took together is very cool ... Their approach is being underappreciated."

• Andrew [45:16]: "The story is Coinbase. They are a juggernaut ... We're headed... to a place where Coinbase is on a path where they’re effectively unacquirable."

• Josh Frank [58:53]: "We've been here before ... If you liked Bitcoin at $125k, you should like Bitcoin at 88k. You're buying at a discount."

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Vanguard & ETF implications: [00:02–05:27]
• Market sentiment & capital flows: [02:44–08:47]
• MicroStrategy’s evolving role in the ecosystem: [08:52–19:09]
• Retail challenges, leverage risks, education: [17:31–25:54]
• Tether FUD and bottom signals: [27:08–34:55]
• ICO/IPO democratization and the Coinbase effect: [38:43–54:24]
• Legacy banking & crypto integration: [54:24–56:22]
• Liquidity, QT, and rally prognosis: [56:27–59:00]
• Panel closing statements – market cycles & smart money: [58:53–62:46]
• Automated strategies, programmatic investment: [63:44–67:29]

Takeaways & Conclusions

• Vanguard’s ETF is a milestone but not a regime change; slow institutional shifts continue.
• Despite negative sentiment and sharp drawdowns, structural buyers (institutions and persistent retail flows) support Bitcoin.
• MicroStrategy is both lauded and misunderstood, acting as a long-term BTC exposure vehicle, with new possibilities ahead if collateral rules change.
• Leverage remains dangerous for retail; product education and platform reforms are sorely needed.
• The Monad ICO and Coinbase’s expanding role mark a sea change in access and legitimation for US retail in crypto fundraising.
• The Fed’s liquidity stance and improving capital flows may be laying the groundwork for a rally, with Bitcoin consolidating as a “store of value” while altcoins remain riskier, more speculative bets.
• Long-term outlook remains very bullish, especially at current levels, with a notable shift toward “utility” and revenue accrual in crypto applications.
• Final note: In a sentiment-driven asset class, counter-cyclical thinking consistently has rewarded disciplined investors.

End of Summary