Episode Overview

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker welcomes back macro and crypto markets analyst Peter Cheer to unpack the whirlwind of developments driving Bitcoin’s latest surge past $94,000 (before settling around $92,000). The episode explores bullish industry catalysts—most notably, unprecedented crypto trading approval for U.S. banks and Argentina’s move to allow domestic crypto bank transfers. Scott and Peter dissect the macro landscape, bank adoption, crypto regulation, stablecoins, and shifting narratives around Bitcoin’s so-called four-year cycle. The result is a rapid-fire, insight-rich conversation perfect for traders, investors, and anyone trying to make sense of this new bullish macro-crypto alignment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Macro Landscape, the Fed, and Political Interference

• Fed Rate Cut Anticipation

  • Over 90% chance of a rate cut, but debate persists about the pace (25 or 50 basis points) ([01:10–01:44]).
  • Peter Cheer expects 25bps, hawkish tone, but “within a day or two” markets will sense a shift and greater support for risk assets:

    “There’s going to be an entire new kind of mentality come the new year... very supportive for markets, bonds, equities, and crypto.” — Peter Cheer ([01:44])

  • Trump’s influence is increasingly relevant; he’s already attempting to steer Fed narrative and appointments ([02:11–02:38]).
  • Peter predicts:

    “I think [Trump] is going to make a wholehearted effort to get these rate cuts done long before the market's pricing. ...I think it's going to be much more aggressive than market does.” — Peter Cheer ([02:38])

• Why Is the Market Slow to Price These Dynamics?

  • There’s a lag, says Peter, due to continued belief in the Fed’s adherence to data, and underestimation of the administration’s willingness to push aggressively on rates for political gains.

    “If Trump and Bessant say they want rates at 3%, I think it’s foolish to bet against them…They want an extremely hot economy heading into elections.” — Peter Cheer ([03:23])

2. Historic Bullish News for Crypto: U.S. Bank Approval & Global Adoption

• U.S. Banks Get Green Light for Crypto

  • Scott describes this as “the stuff of dreams for the crypto industry.”

    “The US bank regulator says banks can act as crypto intermediaries… banks are clear to participate in crypto as long as they manage their risk.” — Scott Melker ([03:57])

  • The OCC’s new guidance allows banks to engage in crypto “riskless principal transactions” without extra scrutiny.
  • Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken captured early ETF custody, but now mega-institutions (BNY Mellon, State Street, PNC) are rolling out native or partnered crypto services.

    “PNC Bank has launched spot Bitcoin trading for PNC Private Bank clients directly within its digital banking platform… They’re doing it with Coinbase.” — Scott Melker ([05:18])

• Impact on Wall Street & Trading

  • Peter views this as a new, lucrative market for Wall Street and predicts tighter, 24/7 rails for crypto settlement:

    “This will actually be very good for trading. It should make it more efficient… with all these new features, it's going to become easier and easier to make it a true 24/7 market.” — Peter Cheer ([06:47])

• Argentina’s Crypto Leap

  • Argentina’s move to enable interbank crypto transfers “disrupts the legacy system.”

    “This is basically a country finally disrupting the legacy system… instead of sending a wire or an ACH or SWIFT… you just sent crypto from bank to bank.” — Scott Melker ([07:32])

  • Peter frames global adoption as a rational “call to action” for Wall Street and policymakers:

    “The profit margins for trading this for Wall Street are probably much bigger than when you trade equities… the opportunity is there, it’s going to keep growing.” — Peter Cheer ([08:20])

3. Industry Growing Pains: ETFs/DATs, Forced Selling, and Opportunity

• On DATs/ETF Products: Disaster or Shift?

  • Skepticism about ETFs/DATs was warranted:

    “Free money rarely ever exists... So now you've seen these things come back to NAV.” — Peter Cheer ([09:47])

  • Forced selling concerns for bitcoin were overblown—larger players simply absorbed assets at a discount ([10:16–10:52]).
  • Structural similarity to closed-end funds:

    “You can trade the closed end funds… if they get to a 20% discount, you want to buy them. If they get to a 5% premium, you want to sell them.” — Peter Cheer ([10:52])

• Serious Operators vs. Weak Hands

  • MicroStrategy’s “buy the dip” strategies show who’s in a position of strength ([11:24]):

    “Saylor has continued to find ways to do that, including effectively a billion this week when people didn’t think he had pennies left in the couch cushions.”— Scott Melker ([11:24])

  • Preference for direct exposure or spot ETFs; skepticism on actively managed products ([12:00–12:37]).

4. Changing Regulation Debate: The SEC’s Profound Pivot

• SEC Attitude Is Bullish (Believe It or Not!)

  • SEC Chair Atkins now predicts, perhaps wildly, that “all markets will be on blockchain rails within two years” ([12:53]).

    “He thinks that all markets will be on blockchain rails within two years… I love to hear him say it. We just all know that that’s like a decade-long process.” — Scott Melker ([12:53])

  • Atkins asserts most digital assets aren’t securities except for tokenized actual securities—a major regulatory shift ([13:53]).

• National Security and Stablecoins

  • The administration sees stablecoins as crucial for exporting the dollar, funding the national deficit, and as a “national security element.”

    “If we can get those stable coins out there… they become part of the national security sort of mandate… tie them to T bills and help fund our deficit.” — Peter Cheer ([14:09])

  • This is also aimed at countering China’s de-dollarization push ([15:29]).
  • IMF’s warning: Stablecoins may undermine central bank control ([16:07]).

5. Market Narrative: Why Is Price Flat Despite So Much Good News?

• 2025: The ‘Lost Year’ for Bitcoin?

  • Scott jokes about bitcoin being up only 1% on the year despite endless positive headlines ([21:17]).

    “It really does blow my mind that we’re looking back on 2025 as a lost year for bitcoin after all of the positive catalysts.” — Scott Melker ([21:17])

• Altcoins: Little Hope for Widespread Revival

  • Select winners will emerge, but broad-based “alt seasons” may be over ([22:03–22:28]).

6. Bitcoin’s Cycle: The Four-Year Myth and New Maturity

• Cathie Wood: Four-Year Cycle Is Dead ([25:20–26:23])
  • “Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is going to be disrupted. …The move by institutions… is going to prevent much more of a decline. We may have seen the low a couple weeks ago.” — Cathie Wood ([25:26])
  • Peter and Scott agree—cycle dynamics are fading in importance.

    “It seems like a much more mature industry… moving beyond kind of a day trading sort of gambling mentality… into something that's a little bit more robust.” — Peter Cheer ([28:23])

  • Major institutional flows and policy changes matter far more than retail-driven cycles.

7. The Liquidity Question & Looking Ahead

• Will Bounce in Global Liquidity Sustain BTC?

  • Peter: “I think we’ll get some small bumps. I don’t think we’re going to get this massive debasement trade… The administration is cautious on prices… reluctant to truly add a lot of liquidity because they do not want an inflation spike.” ([32:28])

• Political Tightrope: Inflation vs. Growth

  • Difficult environment for the administration to satisfy all constituents—Stagflation risk looms large ([33:17–34:57]).

• Market Concentration

  • U.S. stock indices: “The whole market is like seven stocks.” — Scott Melker ([35:01])
  • Risks (and opportunities) from developments in geopolitics and tech/AI (esp. China on chips).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Fed and Political Control

  “The new Fed is going to be what Trump says happens. That’s the new Fed.” — Scott Melker ([24:18])

• On Regulation Reversal

  “If you get something that’s coming almost from a national security/treasury level, that this is important for these reasons, it flows down quite well.” — Peter Cheer ([14:09])

• On ETF hype and cycles

  “I’m definitely not hugely afraid of that four year cycle. I think there may be another opportunity for sell off… but it’s a very different crowd that's invested…” — Peter Cheer ([26:27])

• On stablecoins and US monetary dominance

  “If we're just basically exporting stablecoins in our monetary policy to the rest of the world, what we end up is that the Fed is the central bank for the entire planet.” — Scott Melker ([16:54])

• On leverage persistence

  “I'm still trying to figure out who feels the need to own crypto with that high degree of leverage. That to me still blows me a little bit away.” — Peter Cheer ([27:36])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00–01:44: Macro conditions, Fed rate cut anticipation, market volatility
• 01:44–04:57: Trump, Fed Chair speculation, implications for risk assets
• 03:57–06:47: US banking approval for crypto, institutional adoption, new revenue streams
• 06:47–08:20: Argentina crypto transfers, global adoption narrative
• 10:16–12:37: ETF/DAT’s, forced sales, lessons from MicroStrategy & active management
• 12:53–14:09: SEC’s new crypto stance, future of regulation, national security angle
• 15:29–16:54: Stablecoins, IMF concerns, monetary policy exporting
• 21:17–22:03: “Lost year” narrative, BTC price stagnation vs. bullish news
• 25:20–26:23: Cathie Wood on the four-year cycle, institutional flows, Bitcoin’s maturity
• 28:23–29:32: Industry maturity, wealth dispersion, decline of the “cycle” as a driver
• 32:28–33:17: 2026 liquidity outlook, administration’s inflation concerns

Tone & Final Impressions

Scott and Peter maintain a direct, occasionally wry tone, blending contrarian skepticism with optimism about the structural shift in crypto’s integration into mainstream finance. Their rapport keeps the technical discussion accessible, punctuated by memorable analogies and the kind of grounded, market-tested wisdom listeners have come to expect from The Wolf of All Streets.

Essential Takeaway: The “crypto dream” of mainstream finance partnership is unfolding rapidly, thanks to both regulatory shifts and global developments. Nevertheless, macro forces and new political realities will determine the cycle from here—not the memes or models of the past.

For further exploration, revisit these segments:

• Big bank crypto integrations ([05:18])
• National security angle on stablecoins ([14:09])
• Cathie Wood’s “four-year cycle is dead” commentary ([25:20])
• Macro risks and global liquidity discussion ([32:28])