Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Episode: Bitcoin Rallies Towards ATHs As Gov Shutdown & Sets In
Date: October 3, 2025
Guest(s): NLW (Nathaniel Whittemore) and an Unidentified Crypto Analyst

Overview

In this special "Friday 5" edition, Scott Melker and NLW delve into the current Bitcoin rally as prices exceed $120,000, examine the market's surprising resilience in the face of a looming U.S. government shutdown, and dissect the key narratives powering the ongoing crypto bull run. They also touch on predictions from major financial institutions, the implications of the potential shutdown on ETF approvals and regulatory action, the strategy behind crypto company fundraising, and fresh moves in the burgeoning stablecoin sector.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Bitcoin Nears New All-Time Highs Amid Uncertain Backdrop

• Bitcoin's rally: Price surges above $120,000, closing in on ATH territory despite recent fears and external headwinds ([00:01]–[00:19]).
• Bullish sentiment prevails:
  • "They don't care about government shutdowns or... the lack of economic numbers. Nothing stops this market." (Scott Melker, 00:46)
  • The market appears to dismiss macro risks, acting as though "recessions are illegal."
• Market psychology:
  • "The bulls are back in town." (NLW, 00:23)
  • The October phenomenon—historical upticks tied to "God candles" and cyclical cycles are discussed as part of crypto lore ([01:10]–[02:02]).
  • Seasonality: Discussion around the 4-year Bitcoin cycle, referencing 2017, 2021, and now 2025 as pivotal years.

Macro Forces, Narrative, & Market Behavior

• Indifference to macros:
  • Despite a government shutdown and lack of economic data, both crypto and traditional markets rally ([03:52]).
  • "There's a really kind of a willful unwillingness to do anything but go up..." (Unidentified Analyst, 02:12)
• Bitcoin as a hedge:
  • Ideological holders and institutional voices now embrace Bitcoin as "a hedge against government weirdness," with Larry Fink cited as amplifying this narrative ([02:12]–[03:52]).

Predictions & Narratives Take Center Stage

• Big bank forecasts:
  • Citibank predicts $181,000 for Bitcoin within a year and $135,000 by year’s end ([05:00]–[05:23]).
  • JP Morgan claims Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold and could hit $165,000.
  • "[...] this is not Jamie Dimon calling in his personal prediction to Bloomberg..." (NLW, 05:38)
• Self-fulfilling prophecies:
  • These bold predictions and seasonal patterns can fuel momentum, "turn predictions into self-fulfilling prophecies" especially if ETF catalysts are realized ([05:54]).

The Government Shutdown’s Real Impact: Crypto ETFs on Hold

• Regulatory delays:
  • A government shutdown could delay new crypto ETF approvals, stalling up to 19–20 expected launches ([06:35]–[08:45]).
  • "'30 or 60 days of shutdown can kill a lot of momentum.'" (Unidentified Analyst, 07:21)
  • The shutdown could tip ETF approvals into the next year—2026 midterms further complicate timing.
• Interagency coordination:
  • SEC and CFTC seek better regulatory harmonization ([09:22]–[10:17]).
  • Notable: "This is the first joint roundtable in 14 years between these two organizations..." (Unidentified Analyst, 10:17)

Private Fundraising Over IPOs: The Kraken Approach

• Kraken’s move:
  • Seeks new private funding at a $20 billion valuation after a $500 million raise, favoring the private market hype cycle ([11:34]–[13:50]).
  • "If someone's willing to give you money, take it." (Citing Dave Weisberger, 13:50)
• Surviving bear markets:
  • Key crypto companies fortify treasuries during booms to weather cyclical bear markets ([14:16]–[15:58]).
  • "The winners in crypto tend to be the people who are prepared for... downturns and enthusiasm downturns." (Unidentified Analyst, 14:16)

Stablecoin Ecosystem Evolves: Stripe’s Strategic Bet

• Bridge & Open Issuance:
  • Stripe launches a platform for companies to create their own stablecoins, which could radically reshape the sector ([16:19]–[18:25]).
  • "If I were a Circle, this would be the single most nervous announcement that I had seen..." (Unidentified Analyst, 17:19)
• Potential impact:
  • Offers rails for mass stablecoin fragmentation, but all via the same standardized platform—posing a credible challenge to USDC’s dominance.

Lighthearted Ending: Culture Wars and Crypto’s Happy Bubble

• Netflix 'controversy':
  • NLW pokes fun at current outrage culture related to Netflix programming, referencing Elon Musk’s tweets and changing norms ([18:32]–[19:43]).
  • "Are the girls kissing like worse than the killing people and talking to strangers on the Internet all day? Okay. I don't know..." (NLW, 19:12)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On October Bull Runs:

  • "There is no force more powerful in Bitcoin than the power of October." (Unidentified Crypto Analyst, 01:10)

• Skepticism Around Predictions:

  • "Maybe we can take some of these with a slight grain of salt..." (NLW, 05:23)

• On Narratives Driving Markets:

  • "The combination of this plus all of the research shops weighing in now like actually could create some meaningful momentum..." (Unidentified Crypto Analyst, 05:54)

• Regulatory Bureaucracy Satire:

  • "This is the first joint roundtable in 14 years between these two organizations which is actually just kind of mind blowing..." (Unidentified Analyst, 10:17)

• Wry Survival Wisdom:

  • "The winners in crypto tend to be the people who are prepared for those sort of cyclical downturns and interest downturns and enthusiasm downturns." (Unidentified Analyst, 14:16)

• Stripe’s Entry into Stablecoins:

  • "It's a super smart play from Stripe. I mean, just absolutely. If I were a Circle, this would be the single most nervous announcement that I had seen, period. Full stop." (Unidentified Analyst, 17:19)

Important Timestamps

• 00:01–00:23: Setting the stage: Bitcoin price surge and intro to the episode.
• 01:10–02:02: Discussion of Bitcoin’s October seasonality and 4-year cycles.
• 03:52–04:25: Government shutdown and surprising market resilience.
• 05:00–05:54: Bank predictions for Bitcoin and their market impact.
• 06:35–08:24: Government shutdown’s real impact—crypto ETF delay risk.
• 09:22–10:17: Inter-regulator collaboration—SEC and CFTC joint efforts.
• 11:34–13:50: Kraken’s fundraising/shifts in private vs. public markets.
• 14:16–15:58: Treasury strategies and lessons from past cycles.
• 16:19–18:25: Stripe/Bridge stablecoin platform and its implications.
• 18:32–19:43: Lighthearted banter on Netflix and contemporary outrage culture.

Tone & Style

The episode features characteristic banter, dry humor, and irreverence about market narratives and regulatory drama. The conversation is fast-paced, skeptical in tone, and grounded with the perspective that crypto’s cycles, narratives, and community resilience are more important than ever—even as institutional players and regulators catch up.

For further detail on regulatory updates, macro environment impacts, or the strategy behind new stablecoin launches, listen to the specific segments as indicated by the timestamps above.