Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets – "Bitcoin Rallies Towards ATHs! Can The Bulls Keep Control Or Is The Cycle Top In?"

Date: October 27, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: James, Mike, Dave
[Macro Monday: Live from Las Vegas]

Overview

This Macro Monday episode, recorded live from Las Vegas, centers on Bitcoin's price rally toward all-time highs (around $115,000) and the widespread disagreement about its next move. The hosts and guests dive into the current macroeconomic environment, the fast-changing relationship between traditional finance and crypto (highlighted by JP Morgan's move to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral), and debate whether we're seeing the late stage of a cycle or if more upside is on the horizon. They also draw connections between Bitcoin, gold, and broader liquidity in financial markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Sentiment Split

• Scott Melker opens by highlighting the extreme divergence in sentiment within the Bitcoin community, with bulls calling for new highs and bears predicting a reversal ([00:01]).
• The panel agrees that this degree of disagreement is rare and is driven by both crypto-native and macroeconomic factors.

2. Macro Forces and Commodities Context

• Mike discusses ongoing global economic factors such as gold tariffs, Chinese trade, and the potential end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) by the Fed ([01:36]).
  • The conversation covers projections on Fed rate cuts, impact of US government shutdowns, wage stagnation, and shifting global inflation patterns.
  • Commodities like soybeans (cited as a "stud" in recent negotiations), copper, and precious metals lead the narrative on macro-driven price action ([05:53], [06:00]).
• Notable Quote:
  “Soybeans are the stud.” — Scott, jokingly ([05:53])

3. The Institutional Shift: JP Morgan’s Bitcoin Collateral Move

• Dave offers a detailed history lesson, comparing the treatment of Bitcoin on balance sheets today to pre-1988 equity rules, and outlining how changes in the Basel banking rules could spark a new era of securities financing ([07:24]).
  • The acceptance of Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral by JP Morgan marks a massive step for institutionalization, akin to the explosion of the securities lending business after the Basel change.
  • This shift could vastly increase leverage, financial services, and mainstream use-cases for Bitcoin ([13:09], [14:33]).
• Notable Quote:
  "When JP Morgan, you know, basically says this, you can pretty much guarantee that the wheels are in motion." — Dave ([07:24])
• Notable Quote:
  "The ability to finance on equities created an entire industry which created enormous leverage… If you don't think that this is a big deal for the bitcoin price, then you are literally not paying attention." — Dave ([14:33])

4. Regulatory Shifts: From SAB 121 to Crypto-Friendly Banks

• James points out the vital regulatory change with the repeal of SAB 121, removing a significant obstacle for banks to custody and collateralize crypto ([10:52]).
  • The conversation highlights how this regulatory green light led to Coinbase custoding ETFs and banks swiftly repositioning to embrace this new profit center.
  • The group agrees this is a "disruptive" shift that's only just beginning.
• Notable Quote:
  "The anti crypto army has been disbanded and the banks are on board." — James ([11:32])

5. Second-Order Effects: Market Structure & Leverage

• Dave elaborates that the acceptance of Bitcoin as collateral could lead to second-order effects—more profound than the ETF news—by transforming how leverage and credit are extended in financial markets ([14:33]).
  • Example: Homebuyers could soon use Bitcoin-backed loans for down payments, incorporating Bitcoin fully into mainstream finance.
• Notable Quote:
  "It's the difference between being outside the financial system and inside the financial system." — Dave ([15:50])

6. Stablecoins and Global Payments

• News breaks about Zelle and Stripe integrating stablecoins for international settlements ([18:20]), underscoring the growing mainstream acceptance of blockchain-based assets in payments and remittance.
• Notable Quote:
  "Banks are going to use stablecoins as part of their actual processing, meaning that they're going to be capable of moving funds from tokenized assets to non tokenized back and forth." — Dave ([17:33])

7. The Bull-Bear Debate: Have Bitcoin’s Best Days Passed?

• Mike remains cautious, noting classic signs of late-stage bull markets and underperformance relative to equities, suggesting Bitcoin’s volatility will ultimately decline further ([20:50]).
• He points out poor performance in the broader crypto index, driven heavily by the US stock market's continued rally.
• Mike sees the current environment as potentially late-cycle, and favors cash or treasuries over Bitcoin or gold at present ([23:42], [55:21]).
• Notable Quote:
  “The best days of bitcoin performance are completely over… These days, these pie in the sky expectations of it going to a million dollars in a short time soon—I think you’re missing out on what’s happened.” — Mike ([21:32], [20:50])

8. Correlations, Cycles, and Macro Analogies

• James and Dave discuss the overlap in price performance between gold and Bitcoin, showing that both assets have experienced "bouts of euphoria" but tend to converge over time ([25:28]).
  • They debate whether central banks are forced into perpetual liquidity provision ("life support"), which will continue to benefit both gold and Bitcoin.
  • Analogies are drawn to Japan's post-bubble economy and the global role of the US dollar ([29:58]).
• Notable Quote:
  "It's not that central bankers have learned their lesson. It's that there's no lesson to learn. They are on life support and they've got to keep going because that's the way fiats work." — James ([27:11])

9. Geopolitical Forces and Central Bank Gold Buying

• Dave notes that China and Russia are likely buying gold over Treasuries, contributing to a fundamental, rather than purely speculative, bid under gold ([34:51]).
• The group discusses the possibility of a future rotation from gold to Bitcoin as central banks and institutions adapt further ([36:30]).

10. Market Fragility & Risk Management

• The hosts reflect on the fragility of both traditional and crypto markets:
  • Recent liquidations in Bitcoin: Huge washouts led to no major company failures, contrasting with the FTX collapse, showing market maturation ([40:40]).
  • Stock Market Vulnerabilities: Even a minor 5% drop in stocks could have outsized impacts in today's overleveraged environment ([39:43]).
  • Risk Management Lessons: Mike emphasizes the risk of being "overweight" in speculative cryptos, warning that underperformance often portends further declines ([45:05]).

11. The Political Landscape: Pro-Crypto Administration

• Discussion of potential sea-changes at the Fed and CFTC, with appointments of outright pro-crypto figures like Waller and Michael Sellig under a Trump (or similarly aligned) administration ([47:39]).
• Notable Quote:
  "If that guy ends up as Fed chair, I can't even begin to describe what that would possibly mean for the industry." — Scott ([47:39])

12. Reflections on the Bitcoin Cycle: Is It Still Valid?

• The panel debates whether Bitcoin still follows its classic "four-year cycle," with James asserting it's now a "liquidity cycle," and Dave arguing that a new "revaluation" event could come, but isn't a guarantee ([59:17], [59:20]).
  • They agree that Bitcoin is becoming ever more mainstream and will be hard to oppose politically, further solidifying its role as a store-of-value asset ([59:38]).

13. Portfolio Strategies: Gold, Bitcoin, or Treasuries?

• James remains overweight Bitcoin, arguing it's the essential modern store of value, while Mike shifts preference to gold and even cash/treasuries in the near term.
• There's consensus that both assets may cycle through periods of outperformance, but risk and timing matter ([55:21], [61:27]).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "Soybeans are the stud." — Scott ([05:53])
• "The anti crypto army has been disbanded and the banks are on board." — James ([11:32])
• "It's the difference between being outside the financial system and inside the financial system." — Dave ([15:50])
• "The best days of bitcoin performance are completely over… These days, these pie in the sky expectations of it going to a million dollars in a short time soon—I think you’re missing out on what’s happened." — Mike ([21:32])
• "It's not that central bankers have learned their lesson. It's that there's no lesson to learn. They are on life support and they've got to keep going because that's the way fiats work." — James ([27:11])
• "If that guy ends up as Fed chair, I can't even begin to describe what that would possibly mean for the industry." — Scott ([47:39])
• "I think history is going to view this period of using cryptos and Treasuries as… Yeah, you probably should have been using Treasuries as Treasuries." — Mike ([61:27])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Bitcoin at Key Levels & Macro Backdrop ([00:01]–[06:44])
• JP Morgan, Collateral & Institutionalization ([06:44]–[13:09])
• Regulation & Bank Adoption (SAB121, Coinbase ETF) ([13:09]–[14:33])
• Collateral Change—Major Market Structure Effects ([14:33]–[18:20])
• Stablecoins & Global Money Movement ([18:20]–[20:50])
• Late-Stage Markets? Macro Skepticism ([20:50]–[23:42])
• Gold, Bitcoin, and Market Euphoria ([23:42]–[29:58])
• Analogies: Japan Bubble, US Reserve Status ([29:58]–[36:30])
• Central Bank Gold Buying & Rotation to Bitcoin ([34:51]–[36:30])
• Price Liquidations, Risk Management Lessons ([40:40]–[45:05])
• Political Change: Crypto-Friendly Admin ([47:39]–[49:02])
• Is Bitcoin Still in a "Cycle"? ([59:11]–[60:20])
• Final Thoughts: Store of Value Debate ([60:20]–[61:39])

Conclusion

This episode captures a moment of profound transition in Bitcoin and macro markets. The discussion reflects the swirling debate between late-cycle concerns and bullish catalysts—especially the seismic institutional and regulatory shifts in crypto adoption. The conversation blends technical nuance, financial history, and personal investment philosophies, yielding valuable insight for anyone charting a path through today’s crypto and macro landscape.