← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin Reclaims $69K As Global Instability Ramps Up - Worst Yet To Come?
01:06:24
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- [00:00]
Host
K Pop Demon Hunters, Saja Boy's Breakfast
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Mike
Meal and Hunt Trick's meal have just dropped at McDonald's.
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Host
They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that, Rumi?
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Mike
It's not a battle.
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Host
So glad the Saja Boys could take
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Mike
breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day.
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Host
It is an honor to share.
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James
No, it's our honor.
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Host
It is our larger honor.
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Dave
No, really, stop.
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Host
You can really feel the respect in this battle.
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Dave
Pick a meal to pick a side.
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Mike
Ba da ba ba ba.
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James
And participate in McDonald's while supplies last.
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Host
Bitcoin had a nice move over the weekend, but we know that we need to be skeptical of weekend pumps. But it did recapture 70,000 before dropping back down into the 69,000. All of this coming, of course, while there are threats of further attacks in Iran and global instability is arguably at an all time high. We're going to unpack all of this and what it means for market with Mike, Dave and James right now. Macro Monday. Let's go. Let's dope. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the simulation. Because I saw what was happening this weekend. I mean, Trump was tweeting praise to Allah while threatening to annihilate an entire country. And I really thought, wow, we must be in a simulation. But I'm gonna be on Mike, Dave and James right now. We can discuss it all. Mike, start with the morning meeting. I mean, that tweet was.
- [01:36]
Mike
Well, wait, before you, before you even start with that, you guys did see that there was a poly market betting. What's that?
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Host
I think that was fake news. I saw the poly market. Will Trump say praise through Allah, Easter?
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Mike
I was going to start losing faith in humanity completely.
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Host
Yeah, I think we're good there at least.
- [01:59]
Mike
Okay, thank you.
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Host
Not confirmed, but I think so. Mike, morning meeting.
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Mike
Not fake. Not fake, confirmed, but whatever. That's the world we live in.
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James
Literally.
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Host
It came to me in all of my, like, friend chats, like, can you believe this? They're just doing it, like, right out and, you know, in the, in the open, nobody's even hiding it. Then I tried to find it on Polymarket. I couldn't.
- [02:22]
Mike
Yeah, the best, the best fake April Fool's joke that I saw, that got me for about a nanosecond because I was so, you know, happy about it, was that Jerry Jones had stepped down from the cowboys as gm.
- [02:36]
James
Important stuff.
- [02:37]
Host
There was one that was going around with a big map of Hormuz closures and when oil would run out around the world, it said Asia April 1st and it was retweeted and shared by mainstream media everywhere so yeah but Mike, how's the Bloomberg viewing all this?
- [02:53]
James
Well I first want to start up with one fact and I'll dig into the meeting and that is based on what we were just saying is we're seeing a very volatile world with a very mercurial president and my base case hasn't happened yet I just look at 180 day volatility on crude oil and gold they're both up about 45% and 180 day voltage this year and S&P 500 is down 3% that to me is just not going to happen it's going to change by the end of the year at some point but to the morning meeting starting with our economist Troy Durie was filling in today for Anna Wong he thinks the Fed's minutes coming out will be confirmed the hawkish tilt the data was late list unemployment number and the payrolls number was strong headline CPI is likely to be the largest since 2022 this week 3.3% from 2.4% obviously higher gasoline Fed to see the flip side though of a commodity spike and one thing is PCE still expects that to be the key thing still strong the key thing that PCE includes is financial services which means the stock market IRA Jersey dug in and gave us some good quotes the payroll report he said the headline was good but the unemployment but it was mostly from lower income sectors aggregate income actually fell hours worked has dropped he pointed out the G3 main central banks are all focused on tightening with the exception of the Fed the ecb bank of Japan and bank of England that's his quote was this is probably not a good sign we're getting a growth scare and a global slowdown from that and Giesen rallying short end yields and two years is what he expects two years he thinks are fully valued so he thinks the two years likely to drop in yield long and he's still not a fan of I am but he isn't and he thinks the key thing about the 30 years point out this 5% yield is seeing liability investor buying you think that's still very good yield ceiling for the long end Chris Kane our equity strategist pointed out the S&P 500 is below its 200 day moving average is typically a reason to buy it 6645 is that level spent almost 10 days almost 11 days he pointed out and point out The S&P 500 is typically good to buy after you get big spikes like we did last week. And that's really it from the morning meeting. Except for me and I pointed out my key thing earlier, that this is just. We've never had gold volatility and crude oil volatility rally at this velocity with stock market volatility staying so low. So my base case is still risk assets will be going down by the end of the year and crude oil, I can dig into it later, but let's move on to the meeting.
- [05:29]
Host
Yeah, I mean, I happen to have had this pulled up before because I was just checking. I mean, bitcoin volatility is falling off a cliff. Stock still in the midst of all of this, which I find relatively wild. Right. I mean, we get, you know, you look at the chart, Dave, you joked about this last week, I think when we are at Crypto hall and if you're zoomed in, it looks like there's actually volatility. Oh my gosh. We went from 67, we're at 69. 5. And then you look, it's actually like you went from 68.5 to like 68.9.
- [05:53]
James
Right.
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Host
I mean, there's nothing happening here for bitcoin.
- [05:57]
Dave
Well, yeah, I mean, bitcoin is, as I said in the video I did this weekend and the article that I posted is stuck between the immovable object and the irresistible force. The immovable object in this particular case is fear of quantum keeping gray beards out of the market, by the way, that's going to evaporate. And the irresistible force is the demand of the people who actually believe in it and the silent or quiet accumulation while people in the crypto world continue to sell. And frankly, that's also evaporating. We see that. That's sellers exhaustion. Now what's important about this is this is going on and the war. Crude oil. Yeah. I mean, look, bitcoin moves with risk assets because the people who have to delever, delever. But you can only delever for so long. And what Mike is missing and what Bloomberg is missing is the fact that the reason stock market volatility is so low is because you can only delever so many times. All the people who are going to delever, delevered. And so you have a situation now where the entire speculative universe is de risked. They're not going to change stance because Trump makes. Yes, some people might panic sell if we get a hyper escalation of the war and the straits close, but nobody believes it's going to happen. And the fundamental most important point about that, about all of this stuff is something that people always forget. And it's crazy how people forget this because it's so important, which is news doesn't make a damn bit of difference unless it changes people's expectations. Right? Just let that sink in for a second. So if the entire world thinks Trump is a lunatic and the entire world thinks that, that the U.S. regardless of that lunacy, the U.S. and Iran are eventually going to figure out some way to de escalate the conflict, then no matter what he says, it doesn't freaking matter unless a gun has guns start coming out and bombs start dropping and people forget this every time and they forget it in every single context. So this notion that it's priced in, there's a reason Mike, James and I all agree with buy the rumor, sell the news. It's all about what do people expect? And did the expectations change? Because that's what moves markets. When it comes to bitcoin, I want to make this point on Quantum really quickly. People say that bitcoin will rally like hell when bitcoin solves quantum. Bitcoin will rally like hell when people believe that they're going to solve quantum. That's when you'll see a rally because that's what matters. The same thing is true on the, the effect of, of quantum on the downside. If people believe bitcoin is going to be cracked and is going to fall apart, that's when bitcoin will see a massive fall. That's the reason that if a satoshi coin moves, people will sell. Look, I've run the numbers in. There are lots of, we have lots of comparisons. That's the great news here. There are companies that are huge companies that had well more than 30% of their supply offline because they were locked up. That lockup's ended. We know this and we know when those people actually start selling that the average over years, I mean we're talking years of similar magnitude to Satoshi's coins. Actually in percentage terms larger. It's an average of 3% is when, when that's, that's what the fall is. And within six months it's totally recovered and actually higher. Now, even if you take bitcoin's volatility at three times and you take the size and this and whatever, by another three, you end up with, you know, 27%. Right. You know, is this just the math? So, you know, but we've already seen that bitcoin is seeing, you know, a 50 drop off the highs. Now was it all from Quantum of Course not. It was from deleveraging. Maybe half of that was from Quantum. Would it happen again? Briefly, sure. But you need to be.
- [09:45]
Host
Does it have to sell off as a result of Quantum?
- [09:48]
Dave
I think that a lot of people stop, didn't want to buy. And when, when their sellers and buyers are scared out of the market, what happens? Things drop. Right. You know, it's when, when Nick, if you do pick a point in the chart, when Nick Carter first started yelling. Now he's not Chicken Little, he actually is making a lot of sense of what he said and he's doing the community a service, whether people really believe it or not. But you pick a point on the chart. The day that he started selling was the next leg down from the, from the low 90s down to 60. So, yeah, you know, is that the only causative factor? Come on, you know, we're adults here. There is no single causative factor in market. So sometimes there is. I mean, a war might do it or, you know, Trump's Liberation Day nonsense last year did it. But rarely do you see a single causative factor. But it certainly was a major factor in the next slide because it's the kind of narrative that. Look, Scott, how many people have told you they're afraid of, afraid of buying Bitcoin because of Quantum?
- [10:40]
Host
A lot, but not until bitcoin was well into the 70s. That's why I, you know, I don't know how much they told you.
- [10:45]
Dave
Who knows when they actually sold. Yeah, I mean, look, that, that's only my point. Anyway, the point here is everything Mike is saying about volatility. If you, you could look at the stock market the same way, the stock market, if you're invested in the stock market and you have the wealth effect, you're not selling unless you have to. The war doesn't change that. But you sell is if you're for. Is you need to raise cash for the next, how many ever years, months, whatever that you're comfortable with. And you know, so people, where else are they going to put their money? I mean, the government has engineered it so there's no good yield. You can't live. Most people can't live on 4%.
- [11:18]
James
Right?
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Dave
They just can't. And so, you know, people are stretching for yield. That's why STRC is so popular. That's why high yield gets very popular at the end of every cycle. Now, does that mean, does that set us up for a crash? Potentially? Because when people say. And they're reaching for yield, and that's why they're buying stocks and they start falling. Well, then it creates a vicious cycle. And Micah sitting here scratching his head, I would say, running his hand through his hair, but doesn't have any of that left anymore. But, you know, because he's saying, well, people haven't gotten upset yet or worried yet. And, and by the way, that's a very real concern. I, I actually share it, you know, because that's the kind of tipping point. If things go south, it could happen. I just don't think they're going to go south. I mean, I, but that said, if I were dependent upon the stock market to live, I would be lighter now. James, what about you?
- [12:06]
Mike
I mean, well, yeah, I agree with everything you said about Bitcoin and of course, yeah, that's why you have these perverse market moves when, you know, you see that you've, you've got economic data is, is in a downturn.
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Dave
Right.
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Mike
But people were worried about Fed raising rates. So the market rallies in the face of it. It's all expectations, all of it is expectations. So, and so much of that is baked into the, the, the market. That's why they say that the market's efficient. It's not really, but it's, it's forward looking, for sure. You know, and, and so you just have to take every single day into account. And what's interesting today is that Trump put a new ultimatum out for Tuesday and the futures are rallying here. You know, bitcoin's rallying and it's kind of been doing its own thing a little bit. Gold is off a little bit. You know, the, the yields are up. It's kind of like, I think the market is, it's beginning to shrug off Trump's, you know, bombastic tweets about this. And I don't know if that continues depends on, you know, the reaction from the, the Middle east and from Iran. But it's just interesting that the market is not really reacting the way it would have two weeks ago to that tweet.
- [13:28]
Host
In my opinion, my mind it's.
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Mike
What's that? Yeah, and I mean, I had to
- [13:33]
Host
check if it was real, and I know everybody else did because we saw it on Twitter first. And you know, I went over to Truth Social assuming that we were getting an Easter prank or some late April Fool's Day. But I mean, he is who he is. That just blew my mind.
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Dave
The market is just numb at this point to it. It's, it's, it's kind of crazy.
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Mike
Yeah, well, it's actually, it's like, it's like everybody's heads are spinning with all this and they're like, well, the best thing to do is just, just not much. You know, just not much. Maybe have some cash and sit back but not, don't do too much because who knows what's going to happen next. You just don't know. He's been, he's been likened to a loose cannon for his entire career. And that's, that's, that's his mo. That's how he, that's how he negotiates. Is the perception being an absolute loose. Can you just, you don't know what he's going to do. And if, if it's threat, it's, if it's a threat, it's probably not idle. That's why he had, you know, that was the, the whole thing when he had this reality show. He's like, you're fired. You know, it's like. And then you fire people and you know, it's just that, that's what, that's the, the reality show that we're living in right now. And so the market is. I agree. It's, it's becoming numb to it. Meaning that people's like, people like, hold on, just don't do anything. Let's see what actually. But give me some hard data.
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Dave
Actually happened to anything. Yeah, I mean I assume you're looking at this as the eye of the hurricane.
- [14:57]
James
Oh yeah. This is a combination of 9, 11, 2008, 20, 22, 1990. I remember that one really well. And crude oil spiked from 16 to 40 and went right back down to 10 within a few years. I want to point out some key facts. Is the number one measure of heat, electricity and fertilizer in this country. Natural gas. U.S. natural gas on a year over year basis. Since it's seasonal, it's the only way to measure it is down 25%. That's how if you want to in the US when you talk fertilizer, it's anhydrous ammonia for corn, that's straight from there. That was precedent in 20, 22 and 23. I remember getting a lot of pushback when I was calling for crude oil to drop to 40. Then okay, low as 55, but people call it to be 150. I think natural gas told you you were wrong. It's telling you right now what's going to happen. We're going to, we're in the pump that's going to dump and it's just a matter of time because it's what Happens with now we're in the stage of natural gas doesn't matter so much on the rest. Robot crude oil breaks rallies like this it break things and this is what's happening and what will happen. So I point out let's go to where the puck is going. So I just have to point out WTI crude oil in December, the December month. The December future is $72 a barrel. The high was 81, the lowest 55 this year so far. It was right around 55. 55 is the average cost of production. You all know rules and commodities. You always go that average cut short of productions questions where and when. I think by midterms it's going to be 50 or lower. Number one was Trump want one. Number two I think it's either case is certainly if the straight opens it'll go there. But if the straight stays close that means that global tilt towards a pretty significant depression it's kicking in. And I just looked through all my other commodities. What were the indications? The rally we had in gold and silver this year, the velocity. That rally was the highest in my career. I only started in the business in 88. Exactly the highest since 1980. I don't think I'll ever be able to say that. Gold reached the lowest ever versus the lowest in like 50 years versus a basket of treasuries, the highest versus the commodity index. And silver reached the highest versus copper and the highest versus crude oil. That stuff lasts for years. These peaks are lasting for years. The key thing I want to point out is the indications are all there. We saw cryptos have their collapse last year. I think it's just a consolidating bear market and there's still too much Hopium in this space like good luck. But they were indicating what's happening now. And now the key theme is that stock market market has to stay up. But my view from commodities is this stuff always. It's only worse. Its worst enemy, 2008. This was a trading year that worked very well for me. But the Bloomberg commodity index by July was up 7% or so. Sorry, 30%. CPI was running 5.6% and the price of crude oil reached $147 a barrel by then. The year everything was had collapsed. Why was that? Obviously we had different reasons. But the stock market now is twice as expensive as it was then. And we have a massive surplus of crude in this country versus a deficit back then. This is a rollover. I think that's going to kick in and the whole world this has to look over that US stock market. It has to stay up and I think that's the tilt that's going to go down. This is, this is the big one. This is the macro I might keep saying. I keep, you know the levels I've been putting on it, they keep going below those levels. I'm using 75 bitcoin now. It's just a number. Prove me wrong and the market hasn't done it. And I'm afraid when it does prove me right that this is going to be the year for the T bond and that's. I think that TLT is maybe unchanged, up 1%. The year has zero volatility and Bitcoin's down 20% in here. By end of the year crude oil is probably going to be down. I'll make the call. Natural gas is already down and bond yields will be much lower.
- [18:27]
Host
Well Mike, you'll be happy to know that when I did. Just a quick AI scrape of the headline news today for crypto. We got bitcoin meltdown to 10,000 remains likely unless price reclaims 75,000. CoinDesk has got you now, man.
- [18:43]
James
Well, it's, it's. The key thing was I do love that symbol you just made Dave is people are seeming to get an angrier and angrier. When I first made that call back in Q1 last year, 1H last year and I have to do you have to do that when you see what's happening in the space and that is it's important to point out what's the hardest thing to do in human nature is know when to sell. And buying is the hardest time too. And you don't want to typically to buy and expect gain without paying. My good luck. And all the buyers above 100 expecting the gain without paying. The time to buy Bitcoin was getting beat up. Now you might say that now but the time to buy gold was when it was hovering below 2000 in 21, 22 and 23. It's not to buy it above 5000. That's just the way markets work. The key theme though, remember is there's maybe a hundred cryptocurrencies that matter, but there's an unlimited supply of other cryptocurrencies. And I look at some other things that have supply, demand elasticity. To me this is all getting started. Like I say, prove me wrong. The indications are there and the bottom line is we have stock market volatility, 80 day volatility, 180 day voltage still trickling down in the year. Yet gold and crude oil up 45%. That's just never happened. Okay, maybe we'll get lucky this time.
- [19:58]
Mike
So.
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Dave
There's so many things wrong in there. Let's focus on a couple first.
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James
Wait, what's. Before you say what's wrong, Dave, let's look at price on the screen. Every time you say I'm wrong, your price has been going down for almost a year now. And you keep saying I'm wrong. Anybody who's, well, going the wrong way. If I'm wrong, why is the price going that way?
- [20:18]
Dave
Going that way and dropping 80% from here are two very different things. I mean, in 2022, with combined bankruptcies and multiple combined bankruptcies off of the deleveraging event, confirmed bankruptcies, ones like Voyager and Celsius, and it still. Bitcoin went from 69,000 down to 30 or so. It held in the 30s until FTX blew up. FTX blew up. It brought it down to 16,000. Okay, now since that time, roughly the amount of money in assets and everything else would tell you that should be at least 50% higher than that because that's the denominator. So if you basically said 50% more than 16 or a call for Bitcoin to drop to 25, well, that would be still probably piss off most of the people that at least you could make mathematical justification. But you're basically calling for a drop of. Well, I mean, you do the math. I mean, depending on how you want to look at it, a drop of 70% more than what the math says, that's what people are upset about. Or that's what, that's what some of us, mathematically speaking, if it did exactly the same thing as it did in 22, you would expect the bottom somewhere between 25 and 30. That's where you would. So that's just the math. And so let's, let's just get, let's just focus on that. That's when I make the statement you're wrong, not that you're wrong because bitcoin can't drop that, it can't follow through. Although I disagree with that. But the math is just the 10,000. The only way Bitcoin gets to 10,000, there's only one way it gets there and that is if a huge percentage of people who are holders believe it's going to fail. There's only one narrative that can make that happen and that's quantum full stop. It's just not the math. The math didn't math. I mean, FTX selling was an insane event and that didn't get anything close to that number. So that's the point. And at the same time we have a lot more. Now gold, gold is really interesting because it's telling you what you don't want to listen to. Gold had been held down, nobody gave a shit. And all the central banks wanted gold to be lower. And gold was held down relative to, and you can see it in the, in, you know, vis a vis the stock market. You see the all financial assets, financial assets were being printed, printed, printed, printed, printed in gold state around 2000. It didn't go anywhere. Then what happened? Well then central banks started buying and eventually there wasn't anyone to sell to them at those prices. So what happens? Central banks start buying and then contract for differences took off and that hot ball of money started pushing at gold. Those two things are what did, what it did. I mean that's just factual. We know that that's true. We know. I told you I talked to the head of market making at the literal largest global market maker who told us that their biggest single business for a year was precious metals contracts for differences. And so this is not, this is not a joke. This is whatever you could even ask rock, they now know it, it is at the same size of the cme. So you take you effectively double the amount of speculation that was going on in the precious metals at the same time central banks were buying. That is not any different than why Nvidia doubled, tripled or quadrupled. It's the same thing, right? People, certain fundamental asset managers started overweighting Nvidia in their portfolio and then all the speculators got in and wham. So gold peaked at 5,500. But then you start asking yourself where is that equilibrium? Now you disagree on where the equilibrium. As I told you, I think we're right there. And so it's a question of speculation from here. But gold was held down for years. Years. And you know whether it's gotta the World Gold Council you look through, you could talk to any of them. I mean look, there are people of course on the, on the crazy side, you know, that think, that think it's still undervalued. But you know, whatever. I think it's fairly valued around these ranges and as long as the governments keep printing that that fair value goes higher. So those are the two things that I think are most, that audience needs to understand the most. But if you stop saying 10,000 and start saying 25 to 30, that'll piss, believe me, you'll get just as much ra Bait. But you want to people like James and I saying but your math doesn't. Math. You don't disagree?
- [24:23]
James
Well, of course I disagree.
- [24:25]
Mike
I fully agree. It's, I, I just think the number is nonsensical. It doesn't make sense.
- [24:30]
James
So.
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Host
Right.
- [24:31]
Mike
But that's, that's fine. Here's the good news is that There are Mike McGlones out there that really believe that that means that they are not in the market. They're, they're gonna wait and you know, and that's fine. And there are people who really truly do believe and they're in my comments all the time that Bitcoin's over. It's, it's the, it's the boomer coin of, of crypto. It's, it doesn't do anything. It doesn't have yield. It's, it's not, you know, it's not flashy enough. It's too expensive. It's not going to go up 100x like some of these other things. And it's not, it's just not a lottery ticket. And I get that. You know, and that's, that's what a lot of younger investors are looking for, lottery tickets. We've talked about this before and so, and it's not a lottery ticket. It's a, it's a, it's a, an escape valve from the system that is oppressing you every day with inflation. That it's a way to not get poor slowly. So, you know, but that, that's fine. You have a different opinion. Just want you to be, you know, don't want you to be disingenuous about it. And that's why Dave is calling you out on is that that ten thousand dollar level is just, I mean come on. We had every single thing happen in, in like you said back in 2022, 2023 and you know, it, it never got below 16000 or they touched maybe right there. And since that time think about just the sheer amount, not just money printing the sheer amount of, you know, expansion of money supply and, and, and debt in the entire system. So if we, unless, unless we have a collapse of all of that and the liquidity. Not, not so you have to add the money and liquidity all and the debt together to get the liquidity. We're, we're not, we're not going anywhere near 16,000 in this. And I don't know about gold, but I can't imagine that going down to a thousand, you know, that that might be like saying gold's Going to be at what, 500? It just, it just doesn't make sense. Now, you have a different philosophy, and you've made that extremely clear on here, that your philosophy is that bitcoin is just one of thousands of, of options in the cryptocurrency space. And I, I hear you. I understand why you think that. You do, you know, that bitcoin's different, but you believe that the perception of it, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but the perception of it doesn't, doesn't matter. Is, the only thing that matters is that the people out there are looking for something to put their money in. And the whole crypto space is, is, you know, kind of looped together. And part of that is true, and part of that is why that perception has to gradually change, you know, but you can't get away from the fact that this coin has also become extremely political, and it's been made to be political and it's got caught up in so many different nonsense things. So Dave is right. I agree that we've, we've got to get through this, this quantum fear. And, and that's going to take some time and some clarity, but it's also going to be. It's gonna, it's going to require a genuine explanation from places like Bloomberg and CNBC and Fox and all the rest of them with genuine Mike, that they understand how it's different and why it, it makes sense to, to be a store value. Because you, you're not, you know, you're going against the major banks who have been fighting it all along, who now agree, and they're not using it just because it's just something that they can sell their investors. They're actually building around it. And that's a key, that's a key development that's happened over the last, you know, two years, and it's taken time and it's going to continue to take time on mainstream. It's.
- [28:38]
James
It.
- [28:39]
Mike
It's over. It's going mainstream. And that means something completely different. It means that it really is becoming something closer to digital gold when it gets there. We don't know, but I have a very high degree of confidence that it will. It's just, you know, we, we all have to be truthful, and your truth is a little bit different than, than mine is.
- [29:00]
James
So that's the difference between wrong and truthful. I'm expressing my views and we disagree. That's fine. But to say I'm wrong means you probably need to judge that with price. And so Far for almost a year now I've been right on the price going down. So call me an idiot. Fine. I enjoy that. Maybe let me.
- [29:19]
Mike
You're an idiot. I never.
- [29:20]
James
I didn't say that. But, but it's like the key. That's the key thing you need to understand is this is the key theme. But this is not. This is my independent view. Nothing to do with Bloomberg at all ever. So. But it's not. It's. It's the key thing that as a strategist and as an investor and as someone who's running maybe leverage money which kind of a lot of us you do and you do you have to do when people disagree with you like adamantly. Typically you're right. And also you have a vested interest in doing what you believe is going to happen. But stores of value don't trade at multi many multiples of volatility of the S&P 500 and Treasuries and have unlimited supply competitors. Now what are bitcoin forks? I'm not saying bitcoin has. I do know bitcoin is unlimited. But I remember there was bitcoin gold, bitcoin cash, bitcoin satoshi vision. Those are a lot of other bitcoins. This, this whole space is just massive speculation. Bitcoin was the first and then it's just reverting now and I just put where it usually goes. So I've been pointing out the normal rotation for a bell curve in crude oil for 20 years now is 120 to 40. That's something we really need. And there's a substitutes coming on every day, biofuels and technology. Same things in bitcoin fully expected get back towards 10,000, maybe even lower. And the number one thing I'm pointing out is it's only seen two years with the S&P 500 total return down. And bitcoin got hammered the whole space. It's just getting started. So I did even make the call. I know people get upset about it. It's been twice since the beginning of this millennium. In 2000 we've had two 50% drawdowns. S&P 500. I'm marrying that with Bitcoin dropping to around 10,000 and all the rest of the altcoins taking what were worth billions down to millions or even thousands. That's the key thing is there's. It's why I started really using that analogy between doves and pigeons and pre metals. I was really bullish mostly because they're dubs. There's really four that metal it's only 10 metals that really matter. So everybody's really bullish but they reached a too high plateau Same thing in cryptos from many years ago but they reached a too high plateau and they're all heading lower. But the purge is early days and we still haven't had beta really accelerated. So when the tide goes out that's when you're going to see we haven't seen right now it's leading. So on the year Bitcoin's down 20% I sense a lot of bushes. That's really bearish to me because all you keep saying is about buying dips how it usually happens in bear markets. Here's everything I'll remember. One thing I want to point out. Respect the bear.
- [31:48]
Mike
Don't worry bullishness. No no headlines are bullish in in
- [31:53]
James
in just from the two of your comments just pushing back in my call.
- [31:58]
Mike
Well that's my But I'm a contrarian
- [32:04]
James
statement.
- [32:05]
Dave
I want to be very clear and then you. You though because I. I'm not I'm just going to say this. When I say the words you are wrong I am not referring to your direct the direction of your call although I disagree with it. I use the word wrong when someone makes a math mistakes and so I'm basically saying 10,000 is rage bait clickbait and the rest of the call if you change that number to 30 while I would disagree with it you it would be an opinion and will see yada yada. It's not but what I'm just talking about math. That's what I'm talking about. Nothing more, nothing less.
- [32:40]
Mike
Okay yeah that's right. That's right. It just doesn't. It doesn't it. It seems disingenuous but I see how you, you believe how you got there and that's what you believe. It's just a different belief and, and that's fine and we can have that. So.
- [32:53]
James
So I got here by being really bullish. I got to be bearish gold by being really bullish because I got part. It was nice to catch part of a rally but when things get out of hand and bull markets reach peaks that can typically last for decades. If precious metals are example, if crude oil is example just look at that high at 120 in 2008. We just got back there again this year. It's 2008. That's almost 20 years ago. What happens in commodities it's elasticity cryptos to me on the same but so we can we can we I, it's just a key theme though, is. I think it.
- [33:23]
Mike
Go ahead, let's pull back. Way back. Okay. Bitcoin's just part of this conversation. It happens to be like a central part of our conversation often, but we got to pull way back here. This time is different. It's not that it's different, it's that the waves are getting more violent in the markets. And the reason they're getting more violent in the markets because there's so much more leverage in the markets. Why is there so much more leverage in the markets? Because there's so much debt in the markets. We are literally running over 120 debt to GDP now. Like that is mind blowing. And so if you, if you, if you step back, what's that month?
- [33:59]
James
130.
- [33:59]
Mike
Yeah, it's 130 now. So if you step back, if you take all public in, if you step back and look at these markets and say, okay, do you believe that our economy is intertwined with the stock market and is. How intertwined is it? I happen to believe it is. It is critical to the, to the health of our overall economy. That's what I believe. And maybe I'm, maybe I'm overstating that, but I don't think I am. And I think that you guys would agree with me that it is, is critical to the six, to the, to the economy.
- [34:38]
James
So the stock market is the economy. It's 2.3 times GDP. Okay. It was 2.3 earlier in the year.
- [34:43]
Mike
Okay. So if you believe, Mike, that we have a drawdown and a, and we do have a violent move downward 20 now you're saying just a mean reversion. But if we get a 10, 20, 30% drawdown and we get another 40, 40, 50 drawdown in, in Bitcoin because of it, okay, you're still nowhere near 10, 000. However, you're looking at an economy that is, that would create deficits, that would, they would explode. They wouldn't go to 3 trillion, they would go to 4 or 5 trillion. Do you agree with me on that? Just do the math.
- [35:23]
James
It's exactly what's happening in China now, what's happened in Japan for the last 30 years. Yes. And there's the increasing deflation and yields went much lower. It's exact oxymoron. And what people keep pointing about is crease in supply in a recession means yields go lower. It's fuel, Right?
- [35:41]
Mike
So if, you know, it always works. If, then, if, then you go, okay, so then you, you, you, but you're, you're running deficits now that are just, they're absolutely massive.
- [35:51]
James
Okay, so who buys the debt? Fed buys. What's that?
- [35:56]
Mike
Yeah.
- [35:56]
James
So what's happening in Japan and what's happened in China? What's happened? The U.S. the Fed buys it. But it's a deflationary environment. So I'll make a call. The.
- [36:04]
Dave
Right.
- [36:04]
James
The history of the last like 20 years, CPI is bottom at 0%. The last time it got really low is in 2009, got down to 2%. And after crude oil pumped and dumped, I think by next year CPI is gonna be negative.
- [36:17]
Mike
Right, because you're saying demand the normal cycle.
- [36:20]
James
Yeah, normal cycle. And there's. And the stock market is the economy. That's why. Point is, it's very difficult being long, that type of risk asset when everything's dependent on it going up. We've reached the end game. Bitcoin warned us, gold warned us. Yeah.
- [36:33]
Mike
But the end game is, the end game is the other side of that, which is a deluge of money printing Massive, massive liquidity dumped into the markets because they cannot have the markets collapse like this and still sustain the debt. It's not mathematically possible. The math does not work. And so what you would see is collapses of currencies across the entire world. And that would be catastrophic. Right.
- [37:03]
Host
Chinese holdings of Treasuries drop to lowest since 2008. They've dumped half their Treasuries series in this period.
- [37:09]
Mike
So we've got to get all the. Yeah, you've got to go all the way, but you got to get all the way back to like the. It's. I, I hear you.
- [37:17]
James
Why don't we start with this on
- [37:19]
Mike
mean reversion and all of that. But it's different this time. It's not that it's different this time. It's that we have, we have grown to a spot in, in leverage and debt to, to like we're staring over a cliff. Like that's, this is. It's not that it's different. It's that it's different from 1970, 1980, when we had debt to GDP of 30%. Like this is an entirely different world that we've, that we have grown into. It's not like we're suddenly in a different spot. Like this is like we have taken the whole ship and gone into a completely different world. And so that's the issue that we're staring at economically. And so where I push back on is there is no way that we can continue this charade without the charade continuing, you know that you must have, you know, you must continue to print money and dump liquidity into the markets. And what happens to every asset when you do that? Well, they're going to save the market. They have to. They're, they're. If they don't, Mike, we're in it. We're in a world that's going to be, it's going to be pretty ugly and, and forget about owning stocks and bitcoin. You better own ammo and fuel and water and have backup for meals.
- [38:35]
Host
No, James. But listening to this, interestingly, I think where there's a lot of disconnect, not with you at all, but when obviously people read Mike's views, Mike, you say 10k Bitcoin, that usually gets picked up as a headline. But when you say, hey, the stock market's going to go down another 50, 60, 70%, well, you marry those two and I could actually see it. Right. So I don't think bitcoin is going to 10k by the way. But I think if bitcoin media put your entire view, AKA like the greatest of all depressions in the headline, maybe they wouldn't get as mad. Because actually we focus, I think on what you're saying about bitcoin and its relationship to other coins, which obviously three of us disagree with. But if you're just putting bitcoin as another asset in context of markets going down 60 or 70%, I guess you can see how you arrive at 70, 80. I'm just trying to play devil's advocate. I disagree with it. I don't think it's going to happen. But I wish that people would say, hey, Bloomberg commodity analyst believes that all markets are dropping 50 plus percent and that Bitcoin will drop slightly more.
- [39:41]
James
That's a better way to put it. I've enjoyed this discourse in the crude oil. Last year I reiterated a headline I put out for two years that the normal cycle is for crude oil to get too expensive around 20 and get too cheap around 40. And I just reiterated the headline is going to go $40 a barrel. I got a call that same day from a friend of mine in Texas and a friend of mine in Saudi Arabia. I loved it, it was great and all. It can never happen. But now that we spiked, we had a pretty significant trend heading lower. It just got a great short covering pop and it just is going to increase the supply demand, kick in the demand destruction and go back down. It's just how the world's changed and it's increased the things I wrote about in 2022 just increased that ability of technology to replace crude oil. But that's the cycle. I put that in the same headline with Bitcoin again, 10,000. But that's the thing how people distort it like this is not a simple micro view where my math is wrong. I'm just pointing out normal reversion. The key thing to remember about someone's math being wrong is there is an unlimited supply of cryptocurrencies and they all have somewhat competitive nature with bitcoin. They all have some, some correlation. Just point that out. When dogecoin drops a zero, that'll be a pressure factor. But just number one thing is of what's type of what's end with something
- [40:51]
Host
that I really drops to zero. A lot of that money goes into bitcoin.
- [40:55]
James
Well that's not point it could but that money just poof disappears. It's things that happens when markets go down. It's not because it's selling speeds out. I mean I remember seeing in trading pitch you get a bad piece of data, bids out, market drops a handle. It's not because they're selling and then you reset, you just puff down, you know, wealth disappears. And that's what happens with stuff that tracks nothing on a screen. And that's where you have all those millions of cryptocurrencies. Now the key thing, I want to tilt over the key thing. I still think it's going to continue to happen and it's one of the most bullish things I've been pointing out since 2000, 2018 and that's tether flipping any everything right now it's behind. There's only number three. It was like 20 just a couple years ago. I'm pretty sure it's going to flip in Ethereum this year. And then flipping bitcoin the space is awesome but the speculation just still needs purging and the purging just.
- [41:41]
Host
I find this actually really interesting. I know Dave, you're dying, but just give you a second. So this is Q1, 2026 change in Bitcoin ownership. You can see individuals dumped 62,000 Bitcoin businesses bought 69,000 governments bought 25,000 funds and ETFs added 3,000. This to me listen it's one quarter but it's a quarter in arguably a bear market Shows exactly why I disagree with you. Because individuals are dumping bitcoin businesses, governments and funds are buying it and they're not buying dogecoin. So these individuals are also the People who are retail, who own Shiba Inu and all of the long tail of garbage and they've dumped or as I said to you, I think last week on Market Mavericks, these coins are down so bad that your average holder of a random meme coin, it's too low to sell, but they've forgotten it as dust in a wallet. Those coins are never going to move again and their market cap will remain where it is. Without any more selling, they are dead by any definition, except for the aggregate value. There's nobody left to sell these things.
- [42:46]
Dave
So I want to point out one other thing that is maybe this explains why the difference between Mike and I on some of this stuff. So Mike learned how to trade in commodities, in pits and commodities. And every one of those commodities exhibits the following character characteristics. They are all. They have aggregate supply that is extremely elastic to price. They have holders that are somewhat elastic to price, and they have demand that is absolutely elastic to price. All of them have those characteristics. The price was always in dollars. You never had to think about exchange rates or, or denominators, etc, although it was happening in any, any trading scenario. You don't care. So, like, if you watch one of my favorite shows out there is I love Landman with Billy Bob Thornton. John Hamm was amazing. There is a incredible rant from Jon Hamm before his character dies where he's talking about the need of the oil industry to stop worrying about this climate change bullshit, that they all hate you anyway, etc. Etc. And he talks about the need to keep price between was it 68 and 70 something? I mean, whatever it was, it was somewhere, wherever it is. But what's happening is two massive forces in oil. One that is, one is the continued devaluation of all currencies because of printing. So each dollar is worth less, and so that changes your value of the price and that pushes the price to be higher. And the other is the relentless push of technology, which is make extraction and the cost of producing oil to go lower. The net of it is the technology's winning that fight, has been winning that fight. And so the cost of production at 55 isn't markedly different than it was when there was, you know, 30% less dollars floating around. And so obviously, you know, by my estimation, then the cost of production in $2010 is probably somewhere around 40. And whatever the number is, it's something around that. Now flip that to my experience trading equities in Europe in the 90s and I watched as the currency crises unfolded around the Maastricht treaty and you trade Italian equities as the Italian lira is getting devalued, and you learn, wait a minute. The stocks go higher when the lira gets devalued. Why? Because the companies, even though some of them them are a lot of them, are earning their money in other places and it doesn't matter, there's more lira. So the, the vow that acts to push up the price of companies. We are in a world where the entire world is seeing what I learned in the Italian stock market, which is on nominal terms, to expect things to drop when we're printing more money globally and we're doing it globally. That's not even a question. You know, the last stalwart was there is no choice. There's no choice.
- [45:46]
Mike
So there's no choice. We have created a situation where we have no choice.
- [45:53]
Dave
Right. So that, that to me is a major difference in the way I look at assets now within that. If you expecting, if you're calling for a deflationary collapse, which is essential, Mike's calling for. Right. I don't want to characterize you wrong. It's a deflationary collapse, right. With depression, call it whatever you want, where people expect lower prices, lower values, whatever, or in a vicious circle because the whole world is falling apart. I think that, that it's not that it's impossible, but a inflationary collapse is dramatically more possible. In fact, almost certainly will be the response. And we saw it in Covid, which was a trial run. The difference in the other big difference, Mike, between you and I is you look at Covid as the, as the, as the policymakers learn their mistake and they'll never do it again. And I think they learned that they could actually succeed and so they will absolutely fail, do it again. And that to me is the difference. And I, I, you know, yes, they probably won't give out stimmy checks, although if they can think they can buy votes with it, they will. I mean, I don't think policymakers learn. I mean, Elizabeth Warren talking about wealth taxes is, is about as clear evidence that policymakers don't learn. There is not a shred of evidence that has ever existed to show that wealth taxes do anything other than so
- [47:05]
Host
well with voters in a downturn.
- [47:07]
Dave
Well, yeah, because voters are ignorant talking
- [47:09]
Mike
about it, talking about it.
- [47:13]
Host
It's great rage bait, you know, against the billionaire class and.
- [47:16]
Dave
Yeah, yeah, but it's not just about the billionaires. It's. You see this and you see people who are supposedly in positions of authority the world has moved towards let's clickbait this. And you know, whether or not she genuinely believes it or not, I don't know. Is she a. Probably not. Maybe she knows she's lying. You know, it to me that she should be permanently, you know, it, the entire notion. I mean, I think Bernie Sanders literally is dumb enough to believe it. But you know, I don't know. AOC is almost certainly dumb enough to believe it because you know, in bartending school that's what they taught her. Right. You know, but the truth is when you, when you propose something that is so monumentally dumb and you say stupid things like that and it becomes part of the discourse, yes, we're dumbed down, but could we get to. Those are the people you think learn their lesson. I think that's wrong because I think there's a really good chance that they will be in power in 2028 and their playbook is going to be. The thing they know they can do
- [48:13]
Mike
is print money whether or not Dave. And that's the point. It's not even their choice. It's the system is the way it's set up. The system rewards you for certain things. It's going to reward the people who make the decisions with money printing. It's the expansion of the money and kicking it down the road. That's what they're going to get rewarded for. You think anybody's going to want to drive this economy or keep the economy in a, you know, in a, in a long standing recession and drawn out recession?
- [48:43]
James
Hell no.
- [48:44]
Mike
No, there's no, it doesn't. There's nobody who's incentivized for that. Nobody.
- [48:49]
James
There's nothing they can do about it. Here's the point. We've reached the end game. What you are all saying is stuff that people like me who were really bullish bitcoin and gold many years ago expected. The point is markets price forward and price that in everything you're saying. If you look at the price of gold versus a basket of treasuries, it's the highest since 1982, okay? So I don't think I want to be buying gold in that environment. You already bought it. Did very well, thank you very much. You look at the price. We had this major arguments a year ago when they took almost 40 ounces of gold for one bitcoin. And Dave told me I was an idiot. I said now it's like 14 ounces. Okay. And then we had that S&P 500 versus Bitcoin. It was running around 18. Now it's 10. That's my point is you get to a per certain point and you have supply, demand and price price shifts most it's shifted most in cryptos that got too expensive in gold that got too expensive. All the fundamental things you're pointing out is great. That's my point out early on the hardest thing to do is to identify when that widely expected narrative, as Benjamin Disraeli said typically doesn't happen has reached an apex. So everything you're saying is what I hear everywhere. Thank you very much. What have markets done? They priced it in. Thank you very much. Now what do you do? Do the opposite. Because the risk as an optional, I'm obviously an option traders. What's the optionality? Everything you price you're talking about is you wait for the opportunities I've been pointing at all year. Bitcoin around 900,000. The firt was the first good level. Got to 96, now we're at 75. Silver above 100 was a place to sell gold, maybe above 5,000, a place to sell copper above 6. Like I keep saying, these are simple little things. You point out the narratives. I point. Okay, prove me wrong. I'm doing the opposite because market's already priced it in and those are the key levels. I stick with it. Just prove me wrong.
- [50:34]
Mike
You're worried about. Yeah, my. I'm bearish. Fiat is what I am. That's what I am. I'm not, I'm not bullish on, on any specific thing here. I'm. I am bullish on Bitcoin as a part of the other side of that trade which is. Or that investment, that long term investment which is. I'm bearish on Fiat. I think they're going to continue to destroy the value of the dollar and every single currency in the, in the world. That's what I'm, that is my outlook. And it's not that I'm negative. I'm actually a positive guy. I'm just watching what they do and, and reacting to it and positioning myself for it. So then that's where, that's how I differ from that, from the way that you frame that
- [51:20]
Host
you're not the only bear, Mike. Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on a staggering 373 billion in cash, enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500. And then there is other negative data that's worth noting. Right. I mean we have a financial stress among U.S. consumers. Delinquency rate on subprime loans up to 10% of outstanding debt, the highest in 11 years. Not close yet to 2008, but kind of starting to ring of that. And of course we have high oil prices and this was interesting, we're at 91% right now for rate of change on oil. 100% has preceded effectively every single crash and we still have a Hormuz close. So a 9% greater rise there and of course the private credit warnings from, from Jamie Dimon. But I'm struggling to find where the bullish people are that are the indicator. Right. I guess on the flip side Mike, but there are a lot of people who are very bearish here and a lot of this is pretty telling data.
- [52:18]
James
Well, I'm just the conversation, the distraction here. The point is thanks for pointing out the crude oil. When crude oil rallies like this velocity to break stuff, it's breaking stuff. And maybe it's different but that's why I think this is not a crash anything. It's normal reversion. So as we walked into this year, as we had this invasion happen, the stock market volatility is running near a 10 year low and stock market cap, the GDP is running 2.3 times near 100 year high. I'm just expecting normal reversion. Gold warned us, cryptos warned us. I'm putting stops on it. Prove me wrong market market, prove me wrong.
- [52:52]
Host
Is your stop on bitcoin if you were short in theory above 75?
- [52:56]
James
Well I'm using that as a level. I mean that's a level to put out. Now here's the key theme about bitcoin at the point it's been too easy to be short. Honestly once you got above 100 it's been, it goes down to levels and hovers and I'm not tray, I can't trade anymore and get your little bounces. It doesn't rip your face off and then go down. Crude oil just ripped everybody's face off. I mean it had a classic pattern that looked like it was going to do something. It did. It had a good reason. And now we're going to see what happens with that. You know, just pass simple pattern recognition. That to me I think it broke everything and it can't be easy. Remember this is only, we've been talking about this for months. This is only April and we get the summer doldrums coming and you know it's got to be some time. It's going to be difficult. And I can say, well bitcoin hasn't made it difficult yet. I'm just waiting for the people who have decided to hate me because I just put out views that they disagree with when they say, hey Mike, it's about 70,000, you're wrong. Or 75,000. Like okay, the thing is we need some kind of cleansing short covering. Typically we just got that in crude oil. We had it in natural gas in the beginning year got up to seven, now it's 284. That's the number one heat measure. Heat. Electricity pushing up.
- [53:56]
Host
Right? I mean it's not like oil had a blow off top, right? I mean we're still.
- [53:59]
James
Well it hasn't. The high was 120. It's still pushing up. It could go higher. That's the point. It's going to break things harder. The higher it goes, the harder it's going to fall is usually the way it works.
- [54:11]
Host
Anyone? Dave? James?
- [54:12]
Dave
I mean I think that the most important point here is, is nominal versus, you know, nominal versus adjusted terms. If we believe Fiat is going, is being printed consistently and they're going to keep doing it, they're trying to keep the illusion going. There are multiple ways this can end. But one thing that can't happen is you can't have a situation where you see the nominal prices of assets drop when they're continuing to print more and more money. That is really hard to do. It can happen.
- [54:48]
James
That's not true. That's happened in China for the last 10 years. It happened in Japan for 30 years. That's completely false. It's a fact, Dave. It's false. Look at what's happened in China right now. I mean you're Talking about that GDP is 300%. They're running their money supplies, running two to three times what the US is and yet they have still have a property that's collapsing. Property collapse. That's the point. When prices go up, there's nothing you can really do.
- [55:14]
Dave
Okay, fine. So you're right. I'm talking but in gold terms that's, you know, Golden Juan. I mean, I don't know what Golden Juan has done. You know, I think it's done pretty well. I think there's a difference between assets like, like real estate, like, like you build cities that have no occupancy, those prices are going to crash. Banks that own the debt of those things are going to crash. Those. That is absolutely correct. In Japan we had you, you forget that when the Japanese market imploded in 1989 through 1990, whatever the hell it was before it hit the bottom. And I was there, right? You know, I was building Japanese program trading systems and, and building global program desks at the time. So believe me, I know Jap Japanese stocks, companies were valued at 3 to 4x what the rest of the world was like. And look at where, what they fell, they fell by that exact amount. Why everyone said, oh, the Japanese stocks, of course there were headlines. And this is exactly where you and I agree. There were headlines day after day after day. The Japanese miracle, they should be valued more. But what was really true was there was this thing called koretsu where they all owned each other's stocks. And so the free float was really small. And so foreigners trying to buy into Japan had to deal with the fact that the free float was tiny and they were pushing the price up. The same thing happened in the Internet bubble. All those stocks, so many of them that people were trading, that went absolutely insane. The insiders controlled huge percentages. What was the real pin prick? The real pin prick was insider selling and the free floats expanding. And all of a sudden there was no there there. And, and the ones that survived, well, like Amazon actually built real models. And at a certain point assets have to be tethered to the real economy. Right. So looking at this stuff is important now when we talk about. And so yeah, I find myself agreeing
- [56:59]
Mike
with you on that.
- [57:01]
Dave
Bitcoin is something very different. And it's, it's a bet. I, I have repeatedly said it. You can go back and reread the article. I retried to post it. You can repost it again. I explain this. It is an option. It is an option on adoption. And Quantum is the biggest single risk to adoption right now. And it's actually not a real risk or it's not a big one. They will, it will happen. But that is why, what.
- [57:24]
Mike
It's the largest perceived risk, the largest
- [57:26]
Dave
perceived risk to adoption. That adoption curve based on power law, based on lots of other things, based on the fact that the banks are in here, should be far more likely. But you have to value an option based on that probability. And that's the essence of our disagreement. It's not about the economy, it's not about this. I mean, yes, nominal prices of assets can go up. I mean, look at the things that we know. We know, like as in, no, we know that, that we've watched massive retracement. I mean 50% retracements, 40% retracements of the entire infrastructure to AI sector, yet there's not a shred of evidence that the spending on AI is going to slow down before 2030. Right. We know that it may be that AI companies themselves won't be able to make the kind of revenue. But the only thing that's going to hurt the AI infrastructure plays in the United States right now. There's only two real threats to it. One are politicians claiming to make data centers not get built. And the other is SpaceX. And we end up putting most of AI space. And the first one isn't going to happen because all you'll see, it'll be like a China mining ban. It'll move to friendly states and you'll end up with data centers and they're going to get built and the other is five plus years out. And yeah, that will be a major thing. If you're basically valuing like I own iron. If you're valuing IRIN based upon earnings in 2040, you're probably out of luck. Not out of luck, but it's going to decelerate. If you're owning it based on what it's going to earn between now and 2035, you're probably okay. And you're probably okay and it's probably cheap. All of these factors have to get looked at. I mean, we like to talk, we always try to simplify this for our audience in the sound bites, but every single investment decision is multivariate. Like, you brought up bitcoin gold. Yeah, I was wrong. I thought gold was going to stay moribund. I completely missed the hot ball of money moving into gold. 100% wrong. I own it. I've owned it many times. That is not the same thing. When bitcoin is trading vis a vis gold at the bottom of its range versus the top. the top of the range, I was too bullish. 100 at the bottom of the range, you're too bearish. And that's all I'm going to say. I may be right, I may be wrong. I don't know. But you and I have had that conversation. I own it when I'm wrong. Those are the sorts of things that people should care about. Right.
- [59:46]
James
And that's a good point. And I will you exactly. You got to own it. When you're wrong, you're assuming it's the bottom of the range. If you just look at a few years, I go back for, yeah, if I'm right, if I'm wrong there, I will own it. But to me, that was the best indicator there. When did that. But yeah, good point. But right now it's just hovering at that level. That's why this is, this is an orderly Bear market. I don't see why I should, you know, do anything but stick with it. You know, don't just don't reject the bear. Just respect it. And so far I'm respecting, just waiting for it to prove me wrong. It hasn't yet. It just keeps accelerating.
- [60:23]
Mike
And we, and we've talked about this before, if the market does turn over and it draws down 10 or 20%, Bitcoin will go down with it. I fully expect that.
- [60:31]
James
I've been saying, I mean, do we expect we're not going to have another percent, 20% drawdown? SMB5 and that's why I want to ask your question because the last one he have to me was a classic case of pattern recognition. It went down so far so quick and up so fast, almost the happiest, fastest in history. To me that was a sign that that's the last one. People think it's too easy now. The only thing you can do is you got to buy the dip. That to me is when the signal was over and then gold kind of warned us that's over. So to me the next correction is going to be the one that goes down and stays down.
- [61:01]
Mike
Yeah, and that's where we differ because I, I think that that correction will be. We will, we will have a, a massive amount of liquidity dumped into the market to overcorrect the other side again. And that's just the natural way. And I don't think that we're anywhere near like Dave pointed out, the problems that China and Japan have structurally. I think it, and especially because we're, we are the largest stock market in the world. The U.S. not we, the U.S. stock market. And so it, you know, you're talking about, now you're talking about global effects that are just that, that, that none of us probably truly understand fully anyways. So but the reality is I, I just differ on the outcome and that's, that's where we sit and that's fine.
- [61:53]
Host
I have people.
- [61:55]
Mike
The funny thing is, is that for all the listeners, Mike, Dave and I agree on so much.
- [62:01]
Host
We all agree with Peter most things.
- [62:04]
Mike
Yeah. And that's the, that's the irony of all of this is that we can see here and have discourse and I, I like Mike and you know, Dave and Scott, you're okay. But you know, you know that we all can disagree. We, we have so much that we agree on and wow, does that make a market or what? And that's the reality.
- [62:25]
James
Exactly.
- [62:26]
Mike
Hearing in real time how, how real investors look at markets and they may differ on the same exact information that they're looking at the same. They may have the same exact thesis all the way up to the point of the outcome. And that's just, that's the difference.
- [62:41]
Host
I got people I know in real life, in the chat that have been watching this show forever rage quitting. So if you want any indication that, like, bottom of sentiment and that people just can't take it, I get it.
- [62:52]
Mike
Well, this is a reality of the market right now too, is that if you think that I, I have conversations like this with other investors, they're just like, no, I think this. No, I think this. It's. This is a difficult market. This is one of the most, if not the most difficult market I've ever been in. And, you know, and it's. That's. That's the reality. And so hopefully what we do here on this show is help guide people to form their own opinions too, because that's the most important thing for you, to have your own opinion when you're looking at these markets to decide what you need to do for your wealth and your investments in your family. That's the hope.
- [63:29]
Dave
Yeah.
- [63:29]
Host
I mean, everybody's gonna have to make their decisions. I mean, it's not like. It's not like Mike is selling your stocks for you guys in your portfolio.
- [63:40]
Mike
Mike's not out there shilling gold. And, you know,
- [63:45]
James
I. It's just one of those things I happened to me in 2006. I was there. I see a hurricane coming and it's my duty to warn people.
- [63:54]
Host
I totally agree. Well, that's what we got for you today at 10:05. We cooked it. We hadn't had that. And I see people like, you said you would move on from the 10,000. We haven't talked about this in months. I feel like. And I think it was good to actually have the conversation again because it's a reflection of exactly where people are at and where the emotions are. And the longer price stays where it is, the louder the bearish sentiment gets and it becomes a larger topic of conversation. And I think it's good to have it. Let's just hope that we don't get truthed down to 10k at any given moment, because God knows what possibly is coming next for us.
- [64:27]
Mike
At some point, we'll have to be talking about all the IPOs that are supposedly coming. The SpaceX and the Anthropics. My God, very interesting topic. Once they get clarity on those.
- [64:39]
Dave
Yep. I mean, look, nothing happens as long as this uncertainty is where where it is. Just remember, every single one of these IPOs will get postponed until the straits are open and the world is at. Or, you know, whatever, whatever. It will not help open until there's certainty here. That's just not going to happen. You know, we know that we've seen this movie before and people are. And believe me, in boardrooms, people are scrambling. There is a reason why a lot of firms having seen this and if you notice, there was a bunch of a big round of private financing right before this war started. It happened for a reason.
- [65:13]
Mike
Yeah, a big round at. At pretty. Pretty nice valuations. So.
- [65:20]
Dave
Yep.
- [65:22]
Host
Good job. Well, Dave, we get to go do this again in nine minutes on space.
- [65:26]
Dave
We'll have fun.
- [65:27]
Host
Okay, guys, thank you for your perspective. I appreciate that. It's always intelligent and respectful discourse, even on the topics that we wholeheartedly disagree on. And at the end of the day, we're just going to be here every week, watch what the market does. It's not like we don't have a scoreboard. So we do.
- [65:45]
Dave
And that's why we all have to admit we're wrong when we're wrong. And I certainly raise my hand very easy.
- [65:50]
Host
All right, that's all we got. Thank you, guys. See you next Monday. Bye.