← The Wolf Of All Streets
The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoin SET For Lower As HyperLiquid Decouples! - Bloomberg's James Seyffart
00:29:43
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- [00:01]
A
Bitcoin may be lagging, but Hype has exploded 53%, and a lot of that is on the back of actual institutional adoption and buying of the hype etf. Got the best person to talk about that and everything else that's happening on the institutional side. We've got Bloomberg's James Seyffert here live. Let's go.
- [00:20]
B
Let's go.
- [00:35]
A
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the show. We're gonna start right now. I'm gonna go ahead and bring on James. James, good seeing you on a screen. After seeing you in person, what, two weeks ago?
- [00:45]
B
Yeah, it was fun. I got to hang out and have lunch in Miami.
- [00:49]
A
That was quite a. That was quite an interview that you had with Pomp there. It kind of went a little bit viral, I think you. You got, like. I got Sailor right after he said he would sell bitcoin, like, first, and you got Pump right after he said that all of crypto is going to zero.
- [01:03]
B
Yeah, yeah, He. He knew. He knows what he's doing. He's a good marketer. They both are. You know, they both are. They know how to push push buttons and pull on strings.
- [01:10]
A
I mean, it's actually interesting because if you listen to what he said, it's pretty accurate, right? I mean, 99% of crypto, I think we all agree at this point is hot, steaming garbage. It needs to be thrown in the bin.
- [01:22]
B
Yeah, I mean, I would say it's completely uncontroversial, but when you say it a different way, it can be a little bit controversial.
- [01:28]
A
Yeah, I guess I'll give that to him. All right, so listen, let's start. I want to start with the Solana etf. Morgan Stanley. You broke this yesterday. This morning, Morgan Stanley submitted an amended filing for their Solana etf. Ticker will be M. Sol. We don't have a fee yet, first of all, do we have a fee yet? We still don't have a fee, right?
- [01:45]
B
I don't have a fee unless the filing came in and I missed it this morning. We don't have a fee. I suspect usually that that final document that comes in a day, a couple days before it actually goes live is when you see all the real information, like what the fee is going to be, but this is an indication that it's coming in the near future, I would say.
- [02:02]
A
Yeah. How long does it usually take before these are actually listed once we see these filings?
- [02:07]
B
So, technically, these. They could have launched this already. So they're not following like, we're launching as quickly as Possible because they only filed shortly after. So they filed Bitcoin and Solana technically, I think on the same day or right back to back. And Ethereum was the day after. So theoretically, if they wanted to, they could have launched all of them already because it meets that. Like there's a clock, like a 75 day clock. So really it's up to them at this point, like it's approved, they just got to get it out there. So they're going to launch Solana and then they're going to launch ETH as well.
- [02:35]
A
So this is with staking, correct?
- [02:37]
B
Yep. This has staking in it. I think every Solana ETF has staking. They, they had the benefit of launching after the sec allowed staking ETFs, whereas there's a bunch of Ethereum ETFs that still don't have staking just yet.
- [02:49]
A
It's really a big deal that it's Morgan Stanley, right? So like they've ramped up so much in the last few months, it's almost astounding, right? They weren't really kind of the talk of crypto. Then all of a sudden they came with a Bitcoin spot etf, which maybe we should talk about. I don't know if we've even talked about that specifically. Maybe we did last time, but they came in at 14 bips, like clearly trying to compete in a very, very crowded market and they have the sales force obviously to go out and push it. But then they announced, I think, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Trading, and also came in at way lower fees than everyone else. And now entering Solana, of all things, with staking and we'll assume that the fees are going to be lower. So Morgan Stanley is a bank. I mean, you know, they're not an ETF issuer.
- [03:28]
B
So yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean there's a few things here, right, like you've, you've heard, you've had other people talk about it. They came in, they don't launch a lot of ETFs for them to come in and launch an ETF. And even when they do launch ETFs there's like no ETFs that have been launched under the Morgan Stanley brand name. They're usually on like subsidiaries like Eaton Vance and some of these other companies that a lot of the crypto credit has never heard of. But like this is not something they usually do. And you know, they came in undercut at 14 bips. It just makes it easier for all those salespeople, right? A lot of them have fiduciary duties. So, like, if you're considering putting money into, I don't know, another Bitcoin ETF or another Solana etf, it's just a lot easier to be like, all right, well we have one and it's the cheapest one in the market. So like, what's even the debate here? Let's just put in our own. And like this goes back to something that our team likes to say. BYOA is better than ptog. So bring your own assets is better than paying the other guy. Even if you're not really saving that much money, it's way better. I think they're basically offering this at cost. It might even be a loss leader at the current assets.
- [04:22]
A
14 bits. There's no way they're making a lot of money.
- [04:24]
B
Yeah, like, it's like they have a couple hundred million. This is. They're playing the long game here. One, you know, they have 16,000 advisors, 7 trillion in assets. I bet you those people have a lot of money in Bitcoin and Salon and Ethereum and some other assets that are not under their fee umbrella. So one that can bring some of those fees in. It looks good for this crowd because Morgan Stanley is a leader. They're a believer in the space. You mentioned the E Trade trading that they own. Like they're leaning all the way in and it might even help them get them new clients because there's a lot of crypto people where, you know, 80, 100% of their net worth is in crypto. And a Morgan Stanley advisor would love to be like, come to us, we'll help you diversify and get safer stuff.
- [05:00]
A
Yeah, I mean they've come in like napalm. I mean it was like there no announcements, then bitcoin, you know, ETF, then all the spot trading to over 8 million customers on E Trade. And now Solana. So I think you see where the puck is going to and I think it's really interesting because one of the bigger stories that we had had recently, and you and I had the same reaction. I actually talked about this on Yahoo yesterday. I called you the oracle of ETFs.
- [05:21]
B
I appreciate that.
- [05:24]
A
ETF oracle, maybe, but analyst, this is you. Says competition forced trumplink firm to pull ETF filings. So Truth Social had three, to my knowledge, ETF filings. Right. It was big news. They had the bitcoin one, a bitcoin and eth, and then I think a blended like bitcoin, eth, xrp, of course, Kronos because they manipulate that token. Sorry, they own a substantial trudge of that token. Right. But they kind of made this weird, vague excuse that like it was because of the 33 act and they wanted to do it under a different structure. My take, and I think yours is, I can't say it's specifically Morgan Stanley, but I will say Morgan Stanley, like came in so cheap and so hard that like, why even try?
- [06:06]
B
Yeah, that has to be it. I mean, like I said there Morgan Stanley, there's no way. And you said it too. There's no way they're making a ton of money at 14 bips. They have a couple hundred million. They came in with a huge splash, a massive name. So like, what is True Social gonna do? Like, honestly, obviously it's a Trump link thing and maybe you'll get some assets from there. But like, do we really need a 14th spot Bitcoin ETF at this point? Like, that's what it would be. And like, if there's. When you differentiate on a product, it's like it's a commoditized product, it is a spot crypto asset etf. And so you have to differentiate on brand or fee or there's. And that's really it. There's like not much else you can do. Whereas again, I agree with you, the, the whole 33 act to 40 act stuff is. I don't even understand why they put out that press release because that has always been the case, like from when you filed it. The 40 act has more protections, but you can't offer a spot single asset crypto ETF in a 33 act product. So I think, I think they will come into space, they'll probably launch a 40 act product that'll be a little more active. They'll maybe own some equities, they'll own some crypto assets via other ETFs, maybe, who knows? I don't know what they're actually going to do. But like, it's very hard to be differentiated, it's very hard to be profitable and there's a lot more like unique things. That's where we're going now with these crypto ETF launches. You'll get commoditized on these single asset spot products out there and it's not going to be a big money maker for anybody who's like a small issuer.
- [07:21]
A
I think it's also interesting, like Truth Social, for all of the Trump crypto exposure. They've lost a lot on crypto. Right? All of those other more kind of, we'll call them Crypto DJ or Native things. Launching the meme coin and earning the fees. World Liberty Financial, obviously their stablecoin USD one, they've made tons of money money on this. I think that they in their earnings reported like a 407, 400 something million dollar unrealized loss on their crypto holdings here. So this is not an organization that actually needs to double down further on crypto right now.
- [07:53]
B
No, and I don't think they're going to walk away completely. But it just, this just doesn't make sense. I think it's a, I think this is a good decision by them. As much as like the crypto crowd is like, oh, I also heard a lot of people saying, oh, this is because of clarity. And Trump is like, you know, this is ethics stuff. And he's like, you know, taking a step back. I'm like, this has nothing to do with that. And honestly, even if it does and it's like a happy accident, that is not going to be the primary driver here of what True Social is doing with their ETF launches.
- [08:18]
A
Okay, so let's talk about Hyper Liquid. I just pulled off a, pulled up a chart because I want to like dunk on myself. I had Arthur Hayes on last week and he was like espousing the virtues of hype and pumping as he does. And I'm looking at it right now, it looks like. And I was thinking, wow, this thing's trading too high. It was at 39 bucks. It was right in here somewhere. Yeah, there's last Wednesday, but 39, $38 now hitting an all time high of 58 or 59. And on that show I was like, dude, you convinced me, I need to go buy hype. And then I did what I do. I had ADHD and I was like, oh look, a squirrel. And I didn't do anything. And now I would be like retired. No, I wouldn't on that move. But like there's a lot going on here, right? So Hype is up massively. I think it's one token that people are pointing at and saying I can understand how to value this thing in the same way that we value other things. So I think it makes a lot of sense. How much of this though has to do with the etf because maybe you can break down the ETF numbers because I think been pretty solid.
- [09:22]
B
They have been really good actually. This is the best of the altcoin launches we've seen in a while. Like Solana obviously did very well. XRP also did well when they launched back in October, and we have two products here. So 21 shares was the first to launch on May 12th. Bitwise followed soon after. I think Grayscale will probably be launching one in the relatively near future. But like, the one thing that we say that you want to look for, like, sometimes things come out and they come out and they launch with a big splash, right? And then it just kind of like pitters away and just like it goes down. What we've seen on these things, if you look at the volume on both of them, like it's increasing volume every single day, flows are picking up. So we went from like 1.8 billion for the T hype launch, and then now as of yesterday, these things traded 41 million each just yesterday alone. So total flows were. It's only $53 million, which again, I'm not saying that's not nothing, but we're not talking like billions of dollars that have come into these ETFs. So I don't know how much of this is like from the ETFs or like, you know, second order effect from the ETFs. The ETFs are doing really well, but in aggregate, they've taken in 53 million. Yesterday was a $25 million haul. The day before was 11. The day before that was 4. So these things have taken in money every single day. And it's growing and we'll see how long that continues, but it's a, it's a good sign.
- [10:36]
A
What's interesting though, I mean, XRP was very successful, right? And launched in October though, so that was still near the peak, peak, peak of the market, at least for Bitcoin. Right?
- [10:45]
B
Well, no, actually, sorry. They launched it like the end of October, early November. So we'd already had launched into the start of the collapse, the first collapse before the final collapse, February. Well, I said final. I don't want to jinx it. Maybe that wasn't the final.
- [10:58]
A
I just find it interesting that in this market where altcoins have been doing effectively nothing, hype kind of has this hype. No, no pun intended, but I mean, this thing is running when kind of nothing else is. And the fact that they're doing any inflows, I think is. Is meaningful. Like I said, I don't own this thing, like now. I probably never will. Because as you know, if I buy it today, this will be the top.
- [11:22]
B
Yeah, yeah, you will mark the top. So do me a favor, make sure you tweet it out. I'll put you on notifications. And let me know when you tweet that you finally jumped into the hype train.
- [11:30]
A
You could heavily short this thing. And here's the way that it works though, right? So like, I think it was Matt Hogan that said so Bitwise. Obviously he's made a lot of comments about, about hype, but you know, he said hyper liquids hype, one of crypto's most undervalued assets. I think bitwise actually is putting hype on their balance sheet. Like a percentage of the hype sales from the ETFs is going on their balance sheet. A lot of people I really respect believe in this thing. I think he also kind of alluded to before this even launched and they weren't first, as you said, that hype would be kind of the last meaningful single asset ETF we would see in crypto. What do you think of that?
- [12:08]
B
I think it's possible. I mean, my, my. So the way my framework one, I will say, yeah, they're putting a chunk of their profits onto, into hype and onto their balance sheet, which they're not doing for anything else. They are putting money into like foundations and stuff and in some of these other crypto projects. But I, I tend to agree. The way I look at this is I look at the size of the underlying market versus the rest of the crypto market and then I kind of assume that the ETFs in general are going to be somewhere in that bandwagon, like in that range, right? So it's going to be like, if it's number 12 on the list, it should be somewhere around number 12 in the ETFs. And like any sort of outperformance or underperformance versus that level of the underlying market is an indication that maybe TradFi or normal traders on the brokerages are like more interested in that. So like, I'll give you an example of a horrible one. No one gives a crap about the Doge ETFs. Like, there is very, very little interest, which shouldn't be surprising to anyone, right, that maybe there would be more interest than we saw. But like there's, there's very little interest and hype seems to be the opposite. I mean, we're still very early. I don't want to act like we know what's happening after a few days, but it, I agree with you and I agree with what Bitwise is saying. This could be,
- [13:15]
A
I think what's happening here then, like, as the more you talk about it, is that, you know, this launched at the perfect Time on an asset that was capturing the zeitgeist and sort of was in the moment. Like if you launched a Doge ETF when Elon Musk was tweeting about it and like that thing would have gone bananas. But the Doge ETS launched at a time when literally everybody's forgotten about and given up on Doge. Right. So, yeah, I mean it goes back
- [13:37]
B
to timing, it goes back to what you said as well. People can understand this. Right. You have the revenue flywheel that's happening where like the more trading that happens on here, the lower the supply goes and, and vice versa. And the more interest and people are talking about Hyper Liquid, the more clients are getting. So it's this positive, reflexive flywheel that's good for, for price. And I think people just understand, you know, stock buybacks and what this is in trading and revenue. It's for, for people in Tradfi, it's very easy to get around some sort of valuation metric for this thing.
- [14:04]
A
Yeah. I mean, there it is. Hyper Liquid has quietly become crypto's dominant fee engine, capturing 43% of all chain fees. 11 million weekly, by the way. It's sad that we're only doing like 20 million weekly based on those numbers, but as perpetual futures continue to out monetize nearly every other on chain activity category. I mean, we also had the news over the weekend that the CME and ICE New York Stock Exchange parent owner, like we're petitioning the CFTC and the government to basically shut hype down. Right. Because you're having price discovery on oil contracts at like 700 million a day volume on Hyper Liquid on a Saturday. It's actually starting to affect markets. Kind of reminds me of actually Poly market during the election. Sort of like capturing that moment and then becoming huge. Like feels like that's what's happening with Hyper Liquid. When Met Metals blew up there and oil blew up because it kind of jumped the shark from being just a crypto degen thing.
- [14:57]
B
Yeah. And also they're doing pre IPO stocks. They did cb, the Cerebus stock. They, they actually. It was pretty, it was priced pretty damn well.
- [15:04]
A
I, I go back to volume on that I think than the NASDAQ was doing on the pre IPO shares and whatever structure they're doing.
- [15:11]
B
So yeah, I mean, and obviously, I mean the IPO pricing number is like not exactly what you want to look at for exactly what this thing is worth, but it was way off from what it actually traded. Whereas if you look it was on Hyper Liquor but as you said, like I go back to, there's a lot of people, people I work with, people just in media and financial media in general that like kind of tend to like shit on crypto assets or anything in general this whole space. And like it's funny because like some of these people, they're like during the election they were talking about poly market odds and all of a sudden the same sorts of people that really don't like the space were like using hyper liquid trading numbers for, for oil and all the stuff you mentioned. So it's anytime that you can have an ass, a protocol or something in crypto where it like just breaks through the zeitgeist, I think that's a really positive sign. And I think the best stuff for some of these crypto assets is like they're just on the back end and some people don't even realize that they're using crypto rails, blockchain rails to look at what they're doing.
- [16:04]
A
Yeah, I mean the minute it become like the token is one thing, but I think probably most people who go to trade on hyper liquid or who are soon coming don't like know it's necessarily a crypto thing. Like if you're an average, if you're an oil trader and you hear hey, there's this hyper liquid thing where you can go on weekends and trade it, they're probably just going there and like wow, these perpetual swaps are awesome.
- [16:23]
B
Yeah, as long as you're not a US person, you can't, you can't do it as a US person but we'll see if that changes anytime soon.
- [16:29]
A
Yeah, it's, it's really interesting. I mean you kind of mentioned pre IPO. Maybe it's worth talking about SpaceX because you know, they've filed and it looks like in the next three weeks SpaceX is going to go public. I mean here's an article from Bloomberg that I think probably has the right sentiment here. SpaceX IPO requires leap of faith in AI, Mars and Musk's vision. Like that's the understatement of the century. Listen, I, I, so I, I'm very skeptical of this. Not because of any feeling on SpaceX. I think this is one of the most important companies on the planet and will be. But like this is being so hyped and is valued so high. I think it's a 94x earnings or something. And at the peak Nvidia was at 30.
- [17:11]
B
Yeah, I mean it's, it's kind of, it's kind of crazy. I mean if, if you look at this thing that I think they're looking at pricing at 1.75 trillion and like if you, I, I, I going to act like I know how to value these things but like the numbers just like to me don't justify it. But again, this is one of those things where like people said the same thing about Tesla and it's been it. If you look at the Mag 7 everyone talks about overvaluation. They came in hugely over the last few years. Even Nvidia has like it's earning price to earnings multiple as you kind of mentioned is way lower than it was even when it was going early days of its go go days. But Tesla is still trading in insane multiples. And it's one of those things where like you'll hear people like love the product, love the company, don't love the stock. Like you, you can do that and you can think everything is great and that what they're doing is awesome, but you can think that it's overvalued. Obviously anyone who's like steeped in value CFA type material, like I am, you look at this and you're like there's like that one meme of people throwing out the intelligent investor in the garbage and that's kind of like what you just have to like do when you're doing some stuff.
- [18:09]
A
Yeah, I'm looking at the numbers, valuation math. As I said, target IPO valuation is 1.5, but people are saying 1.75 or 2 trillion. So it's trading right now pre IPO as you said on hyper liquid binance, OkX, all of them have launched perps. Right. So you can trade this with leverage in advance. Right. For price discovery, I guess. So they lost, they lost 1.94 billion in Q1. So you can't even really do a price, can't really even do a PE ratio. Right. But so 94x 2025 ratio, 109x trailing revenue. So average space stocks are at 4x sales and they're so they're targeting 23x the industry average if you just view them as a space stock, which I don't. But yes, Nvidia at peak AI hype was 30x, so that would be three times that. Tesla today is at 7 to 8x. So yes, of course maybe it's not fair to value SpaceX at revenue because of what SpaceX is, but this does feel like two things happen. Right. I know a lot of people who bought these like secondary shares over the years, you know, they get like anthropic now raging against that. They're all up 30, 40, 50 times. I don't know, like they're all up massively. Even if you bought the later rounds, those people are all selling, every one of them, right? That I know. I'm only speaking anecdotally. So they're selling to retail, is going to buy this at 94x valuation. The other question is where does the money to buy this come from? Like, is there enough dry powder on the sidelines for retail to FOMO into SpaceX IPO or are they going to sell all their other Mag 7 stuff to get into it?
- [19:44]
B
Well, the other, they're only ipoing, I think like 75 billion. So like they're going, there's only, they're only have to sell 75. Well, only 75 billion. I mean that's a lot of money. But when you consider trillion or 1.75 trillion. So I Do you know who's gonna buy it there? A bunch of these indices have changed their rules to go to a fast ad rule. So basically they usually wait a year. You look at the NASDAQ 100, you look at the S P, the Russell 1000, we're, we're going in the weeds a little bit here. But something that I've written about and looked into is like these companies are, these index providers are changing the rules so they're going to add them even faster. So I think S and P moved to six months. Don't quote me on that. But Nasdaq, who won the listing, moved to like 15 days. So usually you have to wait 100 days after IPO to get into that index. But now it's 15 days and they're actually putting a multiplier on the float. So you're actually going to hold it at a higher weight than its float. So some of this, some of the buyers here are going to be passive ETFs and mutual funds that are going to.
- [20:37]
A
And it'll be. And if it goes into the NASDAQ 100 in 15 days, right, at a 1.5 trillion, 1.752, you have to imagine it's the heaviest weighted thing in the nasdaq. One of the heaviest weighted in the nasdaq.
- [20:50]
B
Yeah. Well, it will go float adjusted. So they, they only look at like what's actually float. So if they, if they're 1.5 and they float 75, they'll use that like ratio. So it'll only, they'll only value it based off that $75 billion number. But the Nasdaq is also doing like a multiplier if it's a certain size. Basically what this is, is I, if you read between the the lines, Nasdaq did everything they could to like get Elon Musk to list gone lisk on there.
- [21:15]
A
Yeah, he didn't do this in the right. I mean he went Nasdaq, which I think was a huge story. I mean it makes sense, everyone does it.
- [21:21]
B
And the other thing is like this actually kind of makes sense to summary. I don't know about the multiplier of the, of the actual float, but like stocks are not going public at you know, 100 million dollar valuation and you need to give them time to grow in the public markets. I mean you have OpenAI anthropic SpaceX just to name three massive, potentially massive companies. Like these are not small companies anymore. These are their own like behemoths. So like at some extent, if you're going to come to a market a valuation around a trillion dollars, these indices probably should be adding them quicker than waiting a full year. Like that's just possibly not the right way to do it.
- [21:56]
A
What's Nvidia's market cap? 5, 6 trillion or something?
- [21:59]
B
Right.
- [21:59]
A
Something like that.
- [22:00]
B
I don't even know.
- [22:01]
A
40% of an Nvidia, something like that. But absolutely massive. Yeah. And then did you see the rulemaking from the SEC yesterday about IPOs? They're also loosening. I don't know if that has anything to do with the timing, but Atkins basically saying they're loosening the rules around IPOs. A lot of people saying that could help crypto companies get public faster and easier, but maybe that also contributes here. By the way, I'm already concerned about SpaceX being too big. SpaceX and open AI if they happen in the same. I don't.
- [22:32]
B
Yeah, yeah, there's going to be a lot of, there's going to be a lot of sucking of liquidity on this market. I don't know how much you know they're going to go out with the float on any of those things, but it's going to take up a lot of things. But one of the things the SEC has long talked about and people in the industry have talked about is like we need to make it easier and less onerous for companies to go public because it's very expensive to do a quarterly report. So that's why you. There was a lot of talk about maybe allowing some people to go to like semiannual reporting rather than quarterly reporting. All these things are like kind of ways to like let's not force people to stay private or not force them but like make it a lot more advantageous to stay private. But you have so much money sloshing around in VC and all these things they're, they're willing to let these companies stay private as they grow and expand and, and that things have kind of changed. But this stuff from the SEC is, is one of those things. They want to help capital formation in the public markets and give people a better option than just sticking with vcs. But most people, they tend to like to stay private and stick with vcs.
- [23:25]
A
Yeah, I was looking, I mean the Saudi Aramco I think was the previous largest raise for an IPO and that was 29.4 and this is 75. So yeah, even though, I mean this is just like this is on a level that's never been, that we've never ever seen. Polymarket has a 70% odds that SpaceX IPO closes above 2 trillion. I wonder if any of this, there was articles about this actually I think CoinDesk had an article that said they think that these ICOs now trading pre market on Binance and such may actually be siphoning a lot of the liquidity from other crypto markets, including Bitcoin. I find an interesting take. I can't say that I don't necessarily think the person who was going to buy bitcoin is buying SpaceX right now on Binance with leverage. But this is yet another thing that's certainly going to take liquidity out of Altcoins if it's on the same platform. I think prediction markets have eaten Altcoins, silver and gold, oil, all these things on the same platforms. But Bitcoin, I don't buy that.
- [24:24]
B
Yeah, I think, I think it maybe will take interest away. Like my view is like we, we. When I go back to what happened when we started with this, this Iran conflict, I would have expected Bitcoin to go down way further than it actually did. And I think part of the reason it didn't is because you had trading of actual oil on hyper liquid and stocks and things like that. So I think the instances of like bitcoin just getting destroyed over the weekend when some geopolitical event happens because people are trying to offload risk, I think that has kind of lessened because you have these IPOs, these stocks, these other things that you that are more directly correlated to like financial markets or the traditional markets of, of whatnot. So I don't, but I Don't necessarily buy like people are just trading these and not trading bitcoin anymore. I think bitcoin has kind of grown up at this point and people understand what it is, digital gold, what have you. So I don't know how much I buy that it's taking away, but maybe it is. I mean, it's certainly a lot more interesting to trade. Anyone who's looking to trade with massive leverage on super volatile stuff, bitcoin might lose out to SpaceX stocks. I mean, the other thing on SpaceX, the ticker, did you know this SPCX? It was a, it was an ETF ticker for SPACs. And the guy who runs that company held on to it, didn't liquidate the fund for years because he was hoping that somebody else would take it. And that's what happened.
- [25:36]
A
That's how space URLs in the early 2000s.
- [25:39]
B
Exactly. Same thing happened with Meta. There was Round Hill was an issuer and they owned the Meta ETF and they sold that ticker to Facebook so they can use it. Ticker is worth, I don't know, a lot of money. I asked, I tweeted, I tweeted at Tuttle, who's the guy that did it. He just, he responded with a gift saying, you can't talk about it. There's, there's probably, there's almost certainly NDAs and whatever happened behind the scenes there
- [26:02]
A
as a secondary story actually in this ipo, I think they disclosed their bitcoin holdings and it was a lot more even than Arkham and on chain analysts thought so they had 18,712 Bitcoin at 1.29 billion, which is a rounding error when you're a $2 trillion company, I guess, but would be a lot for other people. That was 2.2x more than the 82,850 estimates from Arkham and Bitcoin. Treasuries.net so basically they had 10,000 more Bitcoin than everyone expected. This is separate from the Tesla bitcoin and they've never sold any, which Tesla has. So it's kind of interesting part like nuance, I guess for us.
- [26:38]
B
I take a few thousand bitcoin if anyone wants, anyone wants to throw it my way. I mean, yeah, that was, that was the thing that like I tweeted about the IPO and I was looking at some of the stuff like actually on SpaceX and the thing that went viral in our world was just the number of bitcoin that they actually hold. But yeah, the value, the Other thing that's in there that we didn't really talk about is like they say their Tam is like 28.5 trillion. Their total addressable market. They told the biggest TAM in human history.
- [27:05]
A
And I was like, so I'll, I'll give you my, my hot take on how this valuation gets justified. SpaceX and Tesla just merge?
- [27:14]
B
Oh yeah, I think, I think that I, I think that's more likely than not to happen within the next, before 2030. I don't know how quickly it'll happen. But SpaceX and Tesla are going to merge. I think everyone thinks that's going to happen.
- [27:24]
A
Yeah, I mean you got, you know, like, why is SpaceX even different? If we're valuing each of them beyond being a space company and a car company and we're talking about Mars and AI and all robotics. Right. All the other things they do, it makes sense to kind of lump them all altogether. I think. So yeah. That's pretty much all I wanted to cover. Man, I think we nailed it. Anything else on your mind?
- [27:48]
B
No, I, I mean one of the reasons we did today was because I thought we had the 13F data and we get some interesting information but there was very little information. It was kind of more of the same minor outflows in Q1. Not much to write home about. I mean the, the biggest news was Dartmouth bought us some, a bunch of different crypto ETFs. That was the only thing that was
- [28:06]
A
like didn't Harvard sell a bunch last week?
- [28:08]
B
Harvard sold. They trimmed their positions on Bitcoin and, and I think eth. And. But yeah, I mean the, I mean the one thing you mentioned Saudi before, but the one thing is the UAE actually continued buying so they, they bought more ibit. That's, there's really nothing else going on there. The one thing I would say is like we're the Bitcoin ETFS kind of got near their all time high of 62 billion in net inflows. They just had a billion of outflows in the last week or so. But Solana and xrp, they're not seeing tons of inflows, but they're seeing trickles of inflows every, basically every single day. So. But yeah, there's just not much to write about on what's going on there.
- [28:46]
A
I like boring. We're heading also, you know sell a man go away. Right? I anticipate boring summers doesn't mean sell a man go away, but maybe just stop paying attention in May and go away and come back when things get more exciting.
- [28:57]
B
Shut off your brain for a little bit. Yeah.
- [28:59]
A
Yeah. It's a nice thing to. Nice thing to have. Usually it's not. Not a. Not a sign of a, you know, that the market's going to go horribly wrong. I think it means that we'll probably just slowly grind up with time, and then people pay attention again eventually. James, thank you so much. Time, man. Always appreciate it. Look forward to catching up in person again soon.
- [29:16]
B
Yep. Thanks. Good to see you. Remember, let me know when you ultimately buy hype.
- [29:19]
A
I will. On leverage. All right, guys, that's all we got. See you tomorrow.
- [29:25]
B
Bye. That's dope. Let's do.