The Wolf Of All Streets
Episode: Bitcoin Set For REBOUND As Major Indicator Flips Positive?
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Bill Barhydt (Abra), Andrew, Tillman
Date: February 3, 2026
Episode Overview
Scott Melker and his panel of industry experts, including Bill Barhydt (founder/CEO of Abra), Andrew, and Tillman, dive into the current state of the Bitcoin market following a key liquidity indicator flipping positive. The show explores macroeconomic signals, the evolution of crypto market structure, TradFi-crypto tensions, DeFi adoption, management strategies for accumulating Bitcoin, and concrete advice for both retail and institutional investors amid ongoing price volatility.
Key Discussion Points & Deep Dives
1. Major Liquidity Indicator Flips Positive [(00:01)-(02:43)]
- Scott Melker opens by noting the significance of the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) reading the highest since 2022, suggesting market liquidity may be returning, often a lead indicator of bull market conditions.
- He references analysts like Tom Lee and Raoul Pal, and a notable 52.6 PMI reading:
"This is the first proper push into expansion we've had in over three years... This is when the bull runs generally spark. This is a signal of major liquidity coming in." – Scott Melker [01:48]
Bill (Abra) cautions that while positive, investors should "take the PMI with a grain of salt" and watch for real signs of liquidity and macro stability before getting too bullish.
2. Market Structure and Fear: Is This the Bottom? [(02:43)-(07:58)]
- The hosts talk about how even though Bitcoin is down 41% from highs (then bouncing), this is "very standard" in bull markets, a contrast to the catastrophic sentiment.
- Tillman points to leverage as a key driver of cascading liquidations, and frames current conditions as full of opportunity for well-placed, diversified investors:
"The volatility is a feature... be diversified in a prudent way... and just wait for their day in the sun... But you may have to wait a lot longer than you think because there's a lot at play from a leverage perspective that takes precedence." – Tillman [06:47]
3. Crypto vs. Traditional Markets: A Dichotomy [(08:14)-(11:00)]
- Andrew highlights the disconnect:
- Bitwise AUM up from $1B to $16B in 2.5 years – "That tells you something about retail demand and that we've just barely pricked the end of a finger in terms of retail demand here."
- Traditional markets (S&P, etc.) remain at all-time highs while crypto prices suffer, but "Bitcoin always catches up. And oh, by the way, not only does bitcoin catch up, but it races past traditional markets. It always does. Like for a decade it has." [08:58]
- Upcoming Fed leadership changes, rate cuts expected, and escalating institutional adoption are set to be tailwinds.
4. Abra’s Institutional & Retail Trends, Lending, and True Market Sentiment [(11:00)-(14:08)]
- Bill (Abra):
- Abra AUM up 4x the previous year, driven by yield generation on stables, bitcoin, Solana, etc.
- Lending (bitcoin-backed loans) is now the fastest-growing segment, indicating users want "a safe regulated place to do these things."
- DeFi integration is becoming central, with innovation and adoption blending with "CeFi" for enhanced user experience.
- Quote:
"We're just at the beginning of kind of a DeFi 2.0 cycle which is going to be massive in my view." – Bill [13:45]
5. DeFi’s Integration and User Experience Evolution [(16:41)-(21:54)]
- Tillman elaborates on why bringing DeFi into central exchange interfaces is a “game-changer.”
- DeFi protocol risk is increasingly favored over corporate counterparty risk, especially for large/family office clients.
- "If you can plug and play a DeFi protocol into that user interface, it's an onramp now that allows the normal person to experience DeFi... The value proposition is the same thing that we love about blockchain, which is fair and equitable rules..." – Tillman [19:23]
- Bill forecasts that “DeFi” and “crypto banking” will soon be indistinguishable in the user experience, as digital asset management becomes mainstream.
6. Exchange Pains, Trading Volumes, and the Race for New Revenue [(23:11)-(32:31)]
- Trading volumes at centralized exchanges are massively down (up to 80-90%); stocks like Coinbase and Circle are down drastically.
- Bill describes Circle as "a narrative trade right now” and expects focus to shift toward fundamentals as stablecoin yields change.
- Andrew notes that exchanges are seeking wealth management and prediction markets to stabilize revenue:
- "I do expect... there’ll be consolidation over a five to seven year period across crypto exchanges… a couple, three or four get lots bigger than the others." [29:46]
- Bill is candid that the real competition will be between crypto-enabled and legacy retail banks like Chase more than crypto exchanges themselves.
7. TradFi vs. Crypto Power Struggle & The New Financial Order [(32:31)-(39:56)]
- Tillman and Bill dissect the “fight to the death” between banks (Chase) and crypto-native institutions (Coinbase, Abra).
- Bill: "Fractional reserve banking is going to be one of the first things to go because people don't trust anyone anymore."
- Andrew references a stat that in bull markets, money that leaves banks for Coinbase doesn't come back—causing real alarm at places like JP Morgan.
- Rising distrust in traditional finance (especially post-macro shocks and global unrest) is leading to structural transitions in how people store and manage wealth.
8. Brian Armstrong vs. Jamie Dimon: Davos Showdown [(40:45)-(43:54)]
- Viral Davos moment where JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon reportedly cursed out Coinbase's Brian Armstrong over Bitcoin advocacy.
- Armstrong’s calm, pro-competition stance contrasted with Dimon’s anger.
- "The bank lobbying groups... are out there trying to ban their competition. And I have zero tolerance for that. I think it's un-American, it harms consumers and the banks need competition, they need to innovate." – Brian Armstrong [41:14]
- The roundtable agrees Coinbase is becoming a behemoth, with more customers than JP Morgan, and its aggressive moves into lending/yield are a legitimate threat to banks' “moat.”
9. Practical Strategies for Accumulation (Dollar Cost Averaging, Algorithms) [(45:08)-(53:19)]
- Melker and Tillman share "no-emotion" strategies for accumulating bitcoin, emphasizing automated, condition-based DCA (dollar cost averaging) as opposed to fixed-interval-buying:
- "Market conditions are a gift. The volatility is a gift. And if you set the conditions of the algorithm to take advantage... you reap the benefits." – Tillman [47:22]
- They contrast these algorithmic strategies’ effectiveness with institutional players like MicroStrategy (Michael Saylor), boasting significant cost basis advantages through smarter buying during dips.
10. Long-Term Advice & New Entrants’ Massive Edge [(57:17)-(62:37)]
- Final thoughts urge listeners to ignore short-term noise and set long-term crypto accumulation goals.
- "Crypto is here to stay. And so whether your allocation is 1%, whether it's 3%, whether it's 15%, whatever it is, come up with that goal and then be mindful of our tools... that’s really what it’s all about." – Tillman [58:29]
- “If you start right now, you didn’t have to buy at 86 like Saylor...there could not be a better time to start doing this than right now.” – Scott Melker [59:21]
- Volatility is repeatedly reframed as “the feature” to use, not fear.
Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments
-
Bill Barhydt on DeFi’s Coming-of-Age:
"I think we're getting to a point now where the complexity of that is about to become totally hidden to this kind of next generation of just users. They're just banking users." [20:45]
-
Andrew on Institutional Flows:
"Bitwise...on the precipice of 16 billion. That's not going to slow down anytime soon. It's going to be very, very interesting where Bitwise is as a company and assets under management, in three to five years, it's going to be orders of magnitude bigger than they are now." [08:25]
-
On Exchange Trouble:
"Crypto exchanges buckle as stock losses mount amid Exodus...trading volumes were down as much as 80 or 90% on some of these." – Scott Melker [23:23]
-
On Banks vs. Crypto:
"Coinbase wants to be Chase, and that’s what scared me. They’re just trying to go after Chase’s business, and Chase is basically going to treat this like a fight to the death." – Bill Barhydt [30:47]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:01 – Major indicator flips, episode setup
- 01:48 – PMI reading and macro liquidity implications
- 04:31 – Role of leverage and fear
- 08:08 – Institutional AUM growth and market dichotomy
- 11:31 – Abra’s business metrics, lending trends
- 16:41 – DeFi integration into centralized exchanges
- 23:11 – Centralized exchange pain, volume/stock collapses
- 29:46 – Wealth management as crypto’s next evolution
- 32:31 – TradFi vs. crypto, “moats” and banking competition
- 41:14 – Brian Armstrong’s Davos remarks
- 45:08 – DCA, algorithms, capitalizing on volatility
- 53:19 – Institutional buying vs. algorithmic retail strategy
- 58:29 – Final advice: long-term thinking, ignore short-term fear
Tone & Style
Conversational, irreverent, but grounded in macroeconomics and practical investing wisdom. Frequent banter and humor (including long riffs about shaved heads and 1990s movies), punctuated by in-depth analysis and industry-insider commentary.
Summary for New Listeners
This episode navigates the tension between short-term fear and bullish long-term adoption in crypto. It offers deep perspective on why major liquidity signals matter, how retail and institutional flows are transforming market structure, and why volatility should be treated as an opportunity, not a threat. With direct insights from market leaders, listeners get actionable advice—abstracted from hype—for building crypto positions intelligently, regardless of where we are in the cycle.