← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:00]
Scott Melker
Bitcoin has shown tremendous strength even in the face of geopolitical wobbles. Trump comments and basically everything else that goes on in the world every day that we can't keep up with. It obviously dropped temporarily below $100,000, but has basically flown all the way back near all time highs since. Hard to believe that bitcoin is going to get a significant move down with all of this tremendous demand coming from all over the place. We're gonna talk about that today. Myself and Iago here going to go back to calling it bitcoin and it's bitcoin and today with Yago and of course Dan from chart guys on the back half, guys. Looking forward to this one. Let's go. Let's do. That's dope. What's up, guys? I was in New York for the past couple of days, although it was a quick trip, of course the travel all aligned exactly with my shows. But on Tuesday, you did see here a live stream of my conversation with Mayor Eric Adams at Permissionless in New York City. New York City is a crazy place right now. Aubrey on Yago, we could talk about it. So I interviewed the mayor of New York at Permissionless and then we did like a little fundraiser for him. Of course. Course he's very controversial. He had some campaign finance claims that he took a couple free plane tickets. Politicians, you know, But New York just elected in the Democratic primary, which generally is the election because it's 5 to 1 Democrats in New York. A guy who is describes himself as a socialist, but the good kind, not a communist, you know, a socialist who's basically blown up on TikTok, has gone exceptionally viral and beat Cuomo. So proving that social media beats money. Cuomo had $26 million. Now Adams is running against him independently and is wildly supportive of crypto. So maybe he has a chance now again. But basically this is the global financial capital of the world and has been the worst place on earth to do business in crypto. It's crazy.
- [02:15]
Iago
Yeah, I mean, look, I think you can't. We shouldn't overestimate how much power the mayor of New York has even in New York.
- [02:26]
Scott Melker
He said that in the conversation.
- [02:27]
Iago
He's like, yeah, yeah. But I think, look, this is a really interesting sign that things trends can repeat even if they seem crazy again and again for a very long time, for 100 years or more. Right. Every single generation needs to go through the process of voting in populists and socialists in order to learn the lesson. Don't vote in populists. And socialists. And I think if we're going to tie this back to bitcoin, everyone says this cycle is going to end. Bitcoin can't keep growing like this. But every single generation is going to have to learn that the cycle can and probably will keep repeating.
- [03:14]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I can't speak specifically to the guys policies. I didn't go so deeply. I just saw a few things because it was primary day and I was there with the mayor. Right. So obviously it was huge news. But things like, you know, government run grocery stores, that generally is breadlines, you know, it doesn't end well in my experience. From what I've seen, you know, spending $65 million to allow gender trans for children, I'm not making any judgment about these things. I guess the judgment I will make is that he wants to spend a shit ton of money. And we know how that always ends. In the context of more than just.
- [03:51]
Iago
Wanting to spend a ton of money. The, you know, he wants to freeze rents and make it impossible to raise rents in New York. And he wants to introduce, as you said, you know, government run supermarkets. So it's more than just a question of spending money, it's also trying to deviate from the market. And I think if you look at what's happening in particularly the Anglo Saxon world in general and the big polarization that we're seeing in politics, one of the parts that we don't talk about but I think is one of the key drivers is that it's a war between two classes in society. One class is people who own their own property and the other class is renters. And it's becoming increasingly polarized because the cost of renting just keeps going up and up and up. And New York and San Francisco have been, you know, ground zero for that. And so I think that a big, much more than what we realize of the extreme polarization and the degree to which people are starting to vote in more and more extreme politicians, more and more extreme politics is downstream of real estate. So the, you know, this will I think connect to some of the stuff that we write, you know, also have been seeing and talk about this week. But the more that real estate is not something that you consume, right. Your house should be basically a consumption. It is something you pay for. You pay for rent, you pay for the place that you live. The more it is an investment, the more that sets up society to be a two tier society which is at each other's throats. The people who own are going to have very, very different interests from the people who rent.
- [05:52]
Scott Melker
Yeah, absolutely. So listen, moving on from that, I think it's just the point that once again, bitcoin will be on the docket somewhere in the world.
- [05:59]
Iago
Right.
- [05:59]
Scott Melker
This could become an election where now the crypto industry steps in behind Adams when they weren't willing to recently because of the other option, which they view as so kind of anti the ethos of bitcoin. I don't want to beat it to death because every time we go to politics, people start getting really upset in the comments and we can just go ahead and move on. So this was, to me, the biggest story of the day that people are talking about. We haven't had a chance to go into Fannie Freddie ordered to find ways to count crypto as an asset. Anybody in the United States who holds bitcoin or any asset and has tried to get a mortgage knows how absolutely important this is and what an endorsement it would be for bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. They actually hold it against you if you have crypto when you're trying to get a mortgage. Not, not, not only do they count it, they almost view you as not insurable. I mean, it's not able to get a mortgage. Actually, in my last house, we were buying the house and the last day, not to my mortgage, but my insurance went, fell through. And the reason was because they saw who I was when they googled me, which by the way, I could have sued them and was told to, but I just didn't bother. And we're like, this guy's in crypto, we can't insure his house.
- [07:18]
Iago
Yeah, I mean, I, I, it's a, it's a huge problem. Right. Because the, what this basically does is it creates a situation where if a significant chunk of your wealth is in BTC or in crypto, the only way that you can buy a house, if that is something that you want to do, is to sell. You don't have the ability to use it as part of the collateral or, or even as part of your ability to prove that you have capital which would allow you to get a mortgage and to get a mortgage at a reasonable rate. So this is actually a very, very big change. And it sort of ties into what we were talking about before. I think the number of people within our industry who are renting is very, very high. And changes like this can allow for people from the bitcoin space, from the crypto space to start shifting into that ownership. Brecht.
- [08:14]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I just think that this is obvious, especially when we have ETFs and all these things, and it's been legitimized from almost every perspective, specifically Bitcoin. But, I mean, this is a massive move. People in America who own crypto are going to absolutely love this. It could be so much easier to get a mortgage if you'd even want one at these rates, and to buy a house down the road. And this sets precedent for, I think, when the housing market is much better and people are much more interested. And at that time, obviously, bitcoin's going to be much more popular and I think everybody's going to own it. I think we pretty much agree on that. On the flip side, this wasn't in our news today, but I remembered it as we were going through this Barclays to ban crypto transactions on credit cards from Friday. So not everybody is moving more towards adoption. We still have people saying that it's too volatile and they don't want anyone participating. This says the move comes as a debate is unfolding in the UK on whether users should be allowed to buy cryptocurrencies with credit cards. You imagine Barclays stepping in and saying, you don't have the freedom to buy what you want.
- [09:15]
Iago
So I suspect that behind this is actually a huge amount of fraud. I suspect that what's been going on. So what they're specifically buying banning, is you won't be able to use your Barclays credit card to buy crypto. Right. So they're not saying, we're not going to allow you to, you know, in the future charge your credit card with stable coins or anything like that. What they're saying is that we're not going to allow you to buy crypto. And I, and, and I think a big part of that is that you get fraudulent transactions where people will either do a chargeback or are stealing other people's credentials in order to buy crypto. And, and, and that's the big difference between crypto and credit cards. Credit cards are on somebody else's ledger and the credit card company or the bank can always revert. Right? So those are not. Those are not. Those are transactions that clear but don't settle. And Bitcoin is, or crypto are transactions that settle, so they're final and these are not. And that creates a huge opportunity for fraud. So I think we probably shouldn't read too much into this. Maybe it's a sign that there's been an uptick in, in, in fraudsters using Barclays credit cards to buy crypto.
- [10:30]
Scott Melker
That's a really interesting take and I Had not thought about it in that way at all. Yeah, that's, that's a big problem. It just means that these credit cards are eventually just going to get replaced. I mean, there's a reason that MasterCard and Visa and all of those are absolutely dumping in their share prices. Since Circle launched, I think a lot.
- [10:45]
Iago
Of people, you know, a lot of people will talk about the fact that a merchants, if you're like, got an online store or a retail store and you take payments and credit cards of people will say, oh, you know, it's really expensive. You're paying the two and a half percent, three and a half percent credit card fee. But that isn't the biggest fee. The biggest fee is the chargebacks, especially in the U.S. right. So the, for example, whenever I go to the US I can't pay unless I show them a physical card and then provide them a signature because they're so scared of chargebacks in hard hotels. And so the chargeback cost, the administration cost and the, and the fact that people can just call up and do a chargeback, that is a huge cost to retailers. I think actually the bigger driver towards stablecoins, towards crypto payments is going to be a bit, the ability to get away from chargebacks, not so much the, the, the credit card system fees. And so what's interesting for Visa is that this is basically a way for them to get in to that stream of payments, keep their 2% or 3% fee and get rid of the administrative costs that they have around chargeback. So I think they're, that we're going to see, you know, continue seeing Stripe, Visa, mastercard getting more and more excited about stablecoins.
- [12:04]
Scott Melker
Yeah, this is going to, they're going to either be Blockbuster and Kodak or they're going to try to be Netflix and you know, be the disruption that eventually ends their business. There's no way that the existing networks beat stablecoins into the future.
- [12:17]
Iago
Oh, I, actually that's, that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that the existing networks are going to become Rails for stablecoins. I actually think that that Visa are very well positioned to benefit, better positioned than almost anyone to benefit from, from Stable Coins. And that a lot of stablecoin transactions I think are actually going to happen off chain on Visa Rails. But it will be an excuse for Visa to basically say here, you can't do a chargeback.
- [12:43]
Scott Melker
Yeah, totally agree. And so moving a bit back to price, we have this historic move with ETFs, Bitcoin ETFs 12 day net inflow streak nears 4 billion as Bitcoin gains amid dollar slump so this just speaks to the incredible demand I think that we're having for bitcoin coming in through the ETFs. I think a lot of people would have expected that this drop below 100,000 actually came when it was at a eight day net inflow of 1.7 billion. Right. So how is price going down when you have this historic inflow? But obviously there's a bit of a delay on ETF buying and what happens in the market and it's a bit spread out and bitcoin's open all the time and these aren't. But still like it feels like the groundswell is still just continuing for demand underneath this.
- [13:29]
Iago
Yeah, I've been trying to answer the question of how are we not seeing over the last month a more significant price rise because we have been seeing more and more buying sources of buy pressure. There's you know, just the, the usual things that are happening. The, the price on any given day is dominated by very, very short term traders. The price in the long term is dominated by holders, in the short term dominated by traders. I think that's part of the story. But the other thing which I found was that FTX have according to the, to the BBC, been engaging in additional asset sales, probably a large portion of which is not just crypto but, but bitcoin. And so that may be a sort of one off contributor. Right now my overall sense is, is one of, of, of near panic. Right now I'm, I, I feel like, I feel like panic buying. Yeah, the price is extremely wound. I feel like we're, we're like, I don't know, I mean I don't get this feeling that often but right now I get the feeling that we're, we're just on the cusp of a very significant move.
- [14:50]
Scott Melker
You know, maybe it's my own hope because I'm one of those people who just loves when bitcoin goes down. Right. I want to buy more and I'm, I know I did. So listen, like I, you know, but if it rose so much on that slight drop below 100 and just bounced right back, it's hard to imagine what could push it deeply below that. Anything can happen obviously. But that to me, to your point was kind of the signal that maybe this thing's really not.
- [15:23]
Iago
I had an idea for a new trading strategy. Basically Bitcoin. Every single time there's geopolitical chaos does exactly the Same thing. It drops sharply and then shoots up by every time. And so the idea that I have is you go to polymarket, you watch the Geopolitics tab. If any of the sort of prediction markets there spike, you can then either, you know, sell and then buy bitcoin or wait for the price of bitcoin to drop and buy. And it sort of gives you this early indicator so that you can be ready to buy at these, you know, in our current chaotic world, once every two months you get one of these opportunities.
- [16:08]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean other markets, to be fair, kind of do it as well. Right. But, but you just don't get the, you don't get a 7 or 8% dip opportunity like you do on bitcoin. And to be frank, it's not like I'm dying to buy more Nvidia right now. Right. I am dying to buy more bitcoin.
- [16:21]
Iago
And bitcoin reacts first and fastest. Right. So bitcoin reacts first, fastest and sharp and it also recovers fastest. So I think bitcoin is like, if you want to trade geopolitics and geopolitical chaos, bitcoin is absolutely the best asset to do it.
- [16:37]
Scott Melker
All right, so we've got like 10 minutes and I'm tired of talking about the news, so let's talk about what's being built on bitcoin, the progress, I guess specifically with bitcoin os, but generally these are conversations I've been having all the time now about whether bitcoin should be the base layer for everything, where other layer ones fit in the picture. If we should be worried about fast and cheap, which I do believe fast and cheap is exceptionally important, or just the security of bitcoin or whether we can have all of those things. So like listen, you know your 30,000 foot view right now as you're building, launching, doing all these things, how are you viewing it right now? Do you think that everything is coming back to bitcoin? Just give us the quick summary.
- [17:20]
Iago
I think that the level of excitement and development of Bitcoin is unprecedented. It is continuing. We are, you know, there's the largest ICO that we've had this year was a 50 million dollar ICO for a platform being built as a roll up on Bitcoin to host stablecoins and specifically tether that that was in, in just, just, just over a month ago or just under a month ago. Right. $50 million. We, we haven't seen ICOs of any significance outside of the crypto space at all. We have seen it in bitcoin actually boss, right, has an ongoing sale and has raised multiple millions, sort of just on a platform built on boss. So there's interesting, just if you just sort of look at where the early investments and early traders as well as the developers are, there's a huge amount of excitement in bitcoin. There's also every single day new technology being announced. We put out a, a paper just a couple of weeks ago on how to, how we can bring programmability to Bitcoin Mainnet. There's other projects doing the same thing. I'm going to etcc and the people who have reached out to me are bitcoin developers and projects who want to meet me there.
- [18:51]
Scott Melker
So I think, question quickly, are they looking to pivot to bitcoin? Are they looking to basically bridge both?
- [18:59]
Iago
So look, one of the key things that we're seeing is a grinding growth not just in the bitcoin price, right? So we've been seeing sort of like the bitcoin price grinding up, but we've also been seeing the number of BTC being activated in defi grinding up by hundreds of millions of dollars every month. It's very, very substantial and very, very sustainable growth. And more and more projects are entering into that space all the time. We're also starting to see Bitcoin treasury companies launching and talking about, starting to look to generate yield on their bitcoin or utilize their bitcoin as collateral, in other words, not keep it passive. So you've got this, you know, $2 trillion plus asset, most of which has not been, has not really hit the market yet in terms of being active for defi, for collateral, for lending, and is starting to enter on a consistent basis the amount of BTC that is moving into the market is accelerating. So that is a huge opportunity. I think it's a huge opportunity for anyone who holds btc. It's a huge opportunity for bitcoin itself to sort of reintegrate itself, not just into TradFi, which it's integrating, but also into the rest of the world of crypto. And it's a huge opportunity for projects and people who invest in them. So, yeah, I think, I think this is a story which is undertold. I've been sort of predicting it now for a year plus more. Yeah, but I think I, I was, I was able to put a date on it like about a year ago and I, you know, was able to say 2025 would be the year that we're seeing it. We're halfway through 2025. We've already seen a lot of it. All right. We've seen more than $10 billion in, in BTC flow into DeFi in the first half of this year.
- [21:10]
Scott Melker
That is wrapped. Like. Are you saying like, is there the differentiation between something built on Bitcoin that's D5 or going into, you know, Ethereum as a wrapped version or Solana as a wrapped version? I'm assuming the bulk of it is going into Defi on other chains still?
- [21:24]
Iago
Actually no. So it's probably around 50, 50. There's like for example, the biggest player in sort of like the non wrapped. The biggest player which is not doing it on a separate chain but is sort of built their own platform of Babylon. They have about four and a half billion or around 45% of it. So we're actually seeing more of the growth being in applications which are, are not just in bitcoin. But look at Sway, right? Sway is a massive chain. It's the most significant chain of 2025 outside of, you know. You know, I mean like it's most significant new chain, like it's the new Solana, right? It's the majority of its TVL right now is Bitcoin. And, and we're seeing Avalanche make a major push into the bitcoin space. Solana are making a major push into the bitcoin space. Cardano obviously are making a big push into the bitcoin.
- [22:33]
Scott Melker
With you?
- [22:34]
Iago
Yeah, yeah, with Boss. So, so yes, I think we're starting to see this play out across the board and I think that this is, this is where like the narrative isn't there. I think people for the most part haven't noticed that this is happening. The narrative is, you know, mostly not anywhere. Right. The crypto feels very, very lost right now. But I suspect that because this is actually happening, the fundamentals are there, the developers are there and we're seeing continuous growth. Eventually the narrative will catch up as well.
- [23:22]
Scott Melker
That makes sense. You mentioned the BOS sale. You guys have raised quite a bit. So what's the progress there? What are the next steps? When are people going to be using this? Developers and putting it into practice and implementing.
- [23:36]
Iago
Yeah, so developers are already working on Boss. We are anticipating over the next few months. We have parts of the system already on mainnet and we're expecting to have effectively the v1 of the entire system out by the end of the summer. I think in terms of the progress that we've been making and our ability to stick to the deadlines that we set for ourselves, we've. We've done remarkably well, Much, much better than I would usually expect an R D project to do. And I think the second half of this year as a result is going to be sort of the same as the first half of this year, but on steroids. And 2026 is where we're going to start seeing the first versions of this start to mature. I think we're going to start seeing breakout killer app successes in 2026 built on Bitcoin.
- [24:48]
Scott Melker
I agree. What do you think we'll see first? Where do you think we'll see this really start to show its promise and become exciting to the mainstream? Right, because you need to have that sort of catalyst that makes people pay attention. And you mentioned before, you don't see that many people talking about it right now.
- [25:05]
Iago
I think more and more people who hold bitcoin are going to start earning yield on that bitcoin for the first time.
- [25:10]
Scott Melker
That's the thing.
- [25:11]
Iago
I think that could easily go into the hundreds of billions of dollars. I think we will see stable coins probably of two kinds. I think we will see Tether make a big push back to move back basically off of Tron and back into the bitcoin space with usdt. And we'll also start to see bitcoin back stable coins. And, and I think we will see one or two major chains effectively, you know, double, triple or 10x their TVL by pivoting and going all in on bitcoin. And I think that probably is going to be the biggest story. I think the big story is going to be that we will see like what we've already seen with Sway where now the majority of their TVL is BTC and as a result near and Solana and Avalanche are all making plays. I think what we're going to see is two things. More and more chains seeing the majority of their TVL being in btc and we're going to see at least one ecosystem pivot well enough that they're going to substantially, you know, they have become a breakout success in the BTC space specifically.
- [26:28]
Scott Melker
Somebody said bitcoin backed stablecoins worked well for Terra Luna. To be clear, talking about a stablecoin on bitcoin is not talking about a bitcoin backed stablecoin.
- [26:37]
Iago
Also, Terra Luna was never backed by bitcoin. Right. So Terra Luna had, had had liabilities that exceeded $25 billion and had purchased theoretically a billion dollars of Bitcoin. So that's 1 to 25, 25x leverage is good for perps, not for a stable coin.
- [26:53]
Scott Melker
Right, but that just should also be clear. That's a very good point. But that's when you're talking about stable coins on Bitcoin, you're talking about stable coins in the same context as on Ethereum or on Tron or on Aptos. Right. You're talking about using the technology and the chain and the speed being built on these layer twos and everything that's being built on top of bitcoin to rival those of the other chains. Yeah, it's the tech stack. Perfect. Iago, we ran out of time. We did it again. We've made it to 9:31. So listen, where can people check out?
- [27:27]
Iago
Boss, I would say check it out on Twitter. If you're watching this, you're probably already on Twitter. So btcos, there are currently to my.
- [27:38]
Scott Melker
Account about 4,000 extra people watching this on Twitter, so we know that they're there.
- [27:43]
Iago
All right, cool.
- [27:44]
Scott Melker
All right, man, thank you so much. I'm going to hit you up later today.
- [27:47]
Iago
Absolutely.
- [27:48]
Scott Melker
On the other thing. All right, thanks man. Great. Awesome, guys. Okay, well, I do think that the future is going to be built on bitcoin. Doesn't mean that the other chains are going anywhere. I think that they will also be building in parallel. But it's nuts to think that everything that we've seen incredibly built in Defi and Stablecoins and all those things that people are not going to try to do it on top of Bitcoin Rails. But they're also going to be doing it on Aptos. Normally we talk about them on Wednesdays, but it's Thursday and I wasn't here on Wednesday. Although a lot of you did watch my incredible interview with Adam back yesterday, which we published because I was not here. And to be frank, an interview with Adam back is better than a Scott Melker live show. But there was a huge announcement while I was at Permissionless in New York by Aptos and that was that they've launched Shelby alongside Jump Crypto, finally bringing true Web3 storage, decentralized monetizable storage for data rich apps. You can check it out. I mean this is like their big, big, big, big, big, big announcement. This was main stage. We've never really seen this be successful. But what this unlocks for businesses and for people is absolutely incredible. You can check it out. Shelby xyz, Aptos, just incredibly fast, cheap, safe and continuing to build incredible things. And now we're going to bring on the one and only Dan of the chart. Guys, Dan, we have a couple extra minutes today. I don't have to rush off, by the way. So. All right, just so you know, I didn't tell, I didn't tell you that before, but I want to talk about what's going on in the market. You probably, I know you were listening. I haven't really done shows since, but that sweep under a hundred, I thought we might go lower and I got, you know, it was just a classic liquidity grab right under a key level of support, I think.
- [29:31]
Dan
Yeah, for me that was, you know, again, we were only under a hundred thousand for a few hours, so there wasn't a whole lot of thinking that had to be done. But you know, we call that a lack of acceptance. The price has a lack of acceptance under a hundred thousand. Which again is exactly what bulls want to see at this point. You know, my keep it simple statement is if weekly EMA 12 is support, it's a bull flag. And so it, we held it miraculously. What, what we're looking at now is, you know, this is very similar to the last bear break that we got where we just went straight up and then we tightened up and eventually broke bear. And I think this time is going to be different for a number of things. Number one, you know, positive geopolitical headlines. Number two, we've now seen a lack of acceptance under a hundred thousand. And number three, we got the broader market hitting all time highs. So the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are stronger than they were back here. But that's what I'm watching, you know, how show me that this is different than this. And so what that means for me is, you know, this last time around we had a retracement size, we gave back 75% of that bounce. So what I want to see on this next daily consolidation, whenever that is, maybe it's starting now, not, not sure yet, but I want to see less than 50% retracement, get back less than half of that move. So we can try and make that move at resistance. But it's definitely a bull flag. And again, confidence in crypto stocks continues. There's profits sloshing around between names there. We'll talk about in just a moment. But all things considered, no red flags for bulls.
- [30:59]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I saw it was a Bloomberg article or something that was like profits from Circle are funneling into Coinbase. Right. So we're like the mainstream is even talking about our good old fashioned crypto washing machine.
- [31:11]
Dan
Yeah. And again, as we talked about last week, it's different this time around where it's usually bitcoin into alts, but it's now appearing to be bitcoin and crypto stocks. And I love that. And focusing on that, let's talk ETH first real quick and then we'll move on to those stocks.
- [31:27]
Scott Melker
I guess we have to.
- [31:28]
Dan
Yeah. So for me again, you know, again I'm always looking around where's capital rotating to? And I'm, I don't have time, you know, because I'm a full time trader. I'm trading stocks all the time, different sectors, uranium, quantum. I can't be watching all the altcoins for the tiniest clues. So for me to keep it simple, I'm watching eth and if ETH shows us something, then I start paying attention to all the altcoins. And so, you know, we're very range bound in this zone where, you know, this zone back here is the most important resistance. It was support a bunch, it was resistance a bunch. And now it's back to resistance. And then this zone which was resistance then it was support, support, tried to hold as support and holding again and again. We're smack dab in the middle of this zone. And so I'm just watching do we break out and turn this into support or do we break down and turn this into resistance? And until one of those happens, you know, I'm not getting in any information from this chart. And as we know ETH BTC sideways and down, which it's been doing for years, we need this sideways and up to tell us something is different. So a big one for me will be if this high that we just saw, if that breaks then I'm paying attention to all coins a lot more. And so again, I just want to simplify things. There's, there's so much going on in markets that I have to do that. And that's the way I'm doing it with the altcoin space.
- [32:48]
Scott Melker
I'm not the biggest MA trader, but I was watching ETH USD. I don't know if you saw this on the weekly because I know you use generally different mas, but I just always have the 50 and 200 kind of passively there to give me some mean reversion or just an idea of where we're at. We had seven weeks literally that was like almost every candle touched above the 50 and dropped below the 200. And now you have this long move down to support. But I mean we're right at the 200 again. So like pretty clear that that was rejected for its, you know, breakout. We needed to see it back above that 50 and not below that 200.
- [33:22]
Dan
Yep. With regards to the stocks, again talked about it last week, Circle had another big leg up. But at this point I think Circle's top is in for now. I'm hesitant to say that just yet, but generally when you see this kind of 40% pullback, you know, we'll bounce instead of lower high and then we'll tighten up. But again, the last two days we had a solid drop where we did drop that 40%. And while that was happening, we know Coin got a big leg up and Coin is still holding on just fine right now. And even some of the miners like CLSK had a big two day span there. So to me that just shows me Circle profits going around. And the big question is going to be, is it MSTR's turn? It's battling some key resistance right here, right now. And again I do believe that the premium for MSTR is set. You know that I think we peaked on that premium this cycle. But that doesn't mean it can't still go up a bit. So keeping an eye on MSTR to try and get its turn as well. But as we're speaking here, the first eight minutes of the open, this is a pretty decent start for, you know, here's Coin, pretty decent start for crypto stocks. And so the first thing I look at bitcoin with, it's so we're going clearly Ambers. You know, bitcoin is doing nothing in the first eight minutes of trading and these crypto stocks are still showing some solid strength. So that's a good sign.
- [34:40]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I mean I guess the dollar has been down. I'm looking. Gold is losing. Just happened to be like scanning through charts. Gold losing the 50 ma here potentially, which I think is pretty meaningful on the daily. We'll see if it might hold again. But you can see these. The 50 Ma is pretty, pretty good just to have, I think as a gauge of where markets are at. When you look, I see it so consistently kind of working. Yields are down. I think that's probably, probably part of the story here. But I think when you talk about the Coinbase part, it's really interesting because I don't think people realize Coinbase, Coinbase makes more money on USDC than circle makes on USDC.
- [35:16]
Dan
Yeah, that's 50% of it.
- [35:19]
Scott Melker
Yeah, like it's just over 50% and they utilize it. So there's additional fees. I mean they're partial owners. So imagine how much they've made on this IPO as well. I think people maybe are getting keen to that. And then the fact that last week I think the circle stocks market cap exceeded the market cap of usdc, which is wild.
- [35:38]
Dan
Yeah, I mean that's what happens after IPOs. If you look at a cannabis play t lry, it went to 300 and now it's under a dollar. So they, they pump those, they pump those IPOs as much as they can.
- [35:51]
Scott Melker
But just the weed stocks come back. Come on.
- [35:53]
Dan
Oh man, we, we need a fundamental catalyst there for sure. And right now actually the, the psychedelic names are getting a little bit more attention from RFK Jr. And that side of things. So still keeping an eye on those sectors but not trying to nail any bottoms. I need some momentum at the back of the bulls before I get interested. Just one more note on, on Coin with regards to, again, you know, full time trader using coin. I have really disliked their service and I'm sitting there wondering like, what is everybody seeing? You know, this business model is not sustainable. Anybody can, can eat their lunch in terms of making a better trading platform. And now I see everything that's played out the last year and a half, two years, it's like, oh, okay, they're going for a different, that's what they're going for. It's not.
- [36:36]
Scott Melker
Coinbase always remained successful. I mean, yeah, they're custodying all the ETFs, right. I mean they've got a few things going for them beyond like whether you're trailing stop fires, you know, or whether the platform remains online when there's high volatility, which has been still an issue, you know, the eight or nine years that I've used it. Yeah, I agree with you. Interestingly, I'm actually talking to a friend of mine, owns a publicly traded Canadian psychedelic company and we met because of Bitcoin and they're looking to move some of their treasury small percent into Bitcoin. Not to financially engineer it, just, you know, buy some bitcoin to hedge against the dollar position. And we've been talking and working with them to do that in an efficient way. So I would love to see the psychedelic space blow up for them. Like if they, you know, they got like the bitcoin treasury narrative, if it catches some, you know, some tailwinds and psychedelics to go. But RFK definitely giving psychedelics a nice push, at least fundamentally. I guess we'll see if the stocks follow.
- [37:37]
Dan
Yeah. And for those wanting to follow, it's cmps, M N M D, cybn, atai, those are the main ones I follow. CMPS just had a little bit of data come out and it actually dumped really hard. And so I use that opportunity to buy a little bit of long term positions in the sector where, you know, those are either going to zero or they're going up 100%. So that's my mindset.
- [38:01]
Scott Melker
Love that. Yeah, that's a good way to approach it. I assume it's a very, very, very small part of your portfolio. See, because people in crypto hear that and they're like, I'm all in.
- [38:08]
Dan
Right?
- [38:09]
Scott Melker
Yeah, I'm all in that. Whatever. He just said hundred. Did he say hundreds of percent? I mean, right? So. All right, thank you as always for your amazing perspective, guys. Give Dan a follow chart, guys, on X. And his channel's great educational content as well. Really will teach you how to trade without being a completely spastic, which I think is nice. Most people are really emotional. All right, dad, thank you so much for your time. And guys, I will see you tomorrow for the Friday five. Thank you, Dan.
- [38:37]
Dan
See ya.
- [38:38]
Scott Melker
Bye. That's dope.