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- [00:02]
A
Ladies and gentlemen, October has begun. Happy October to those who celebrate. We all know that this is one of the most bullish months historically. If you do believe in seasonality for our beloved honey badger, we obviously have seen a move to the upside. Is this just another huge October beginning, or are we about to get faked out and very disappointed Again?
- [00:27]
B
Trend.
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A
Truth is, none of us have a crystal ball, but we can certainly unpack all of the news and catalysts that are potentially driving markets into the month. And we have none other than Rizzo here, the bitcoin historian, to break it all down. Let's go.
- [00:43]
B
Let's do.
- [00:57]
C
Let's go.
- [00:58]
A
Good morning, everybody. Happy October 1st, and welcome to the show. Something I ask you to do about once a month, because I forget, is to like and subscribe so that the algorithm actually shows our video to people. Cool. I'm contractually obligated to say that once a month. Glad you did it. I know none of you literally did anything when I said that, but here we are. I'm gonna go ahead and bring on Rizzo right now. Good morning, sir. Welcome back.
- [01:22]
B
Scott got me hyped. It's a nice Are you.
- [01:24]
A
By the original Buy Bitcoin sign? Is that it?
- [01:26]
B
No, it was done by the artist himself, but it is not part of the official collection. This was. We did a video interview together back when I was at Coindesk, and he. He made this little, uh. Uh, this little prop, which, uh, you know, uh, I. I'd like to think is worth more than the yellow piece of paper it's written on, but who knows?
- [01:49]
A
I believe it is. Just ask Janet Yellen. Hey, I don't know if you're aware of this, by the way, but I noticed with your very amazing X account that you also use all caps for breaking news tweets. I was told recently that I do the same. The algo apparently hates us. It thinks we're screaming. But I went to not all caps, tweets. This is a whole thing. We did a deep dive on the algo, and it did worse.
- [02:14]
B
Yeah, I mean, I. You know, you got to get people's attention, right? The same reason you have a hyper. You got those nice trumpets getting us out of bed at 9 in the morning. You know, is it really new, all caps, Right?
- [02:27]
A
I agree. It's certainly not breaking if it's not all caps. All right, so let's dig into what's happening here. Right? We've got bitcoin, obviously making a beautiful move kind of overnight right as October begins, depending on where you are in the world. I remember past cycles where we had like 10% moves on October 1. It was almost became a meme. Right. But sitting at 16,500 also coincidentally as the government shut down. I'm not a huge fan of correlations and believing that news events are necessarily driving the price of bitcoin. But it is interesting that coming into this day when everybody has such a big expectation with a government shutdown that we start to seem to kind of move to the upside. What do you make of this?
- [03:10]
B
You know, I've been kind of had a consistent drumbeat here. I think the institutions are counter trading us. You know, I'd like to believe that October is upon us, but you know, if you look at the last market cycle, you know, this has been a sustained bull market. You know, we've really been in uptime since the ETF approval last year. And something that I've learned is that the institutions I think are studying, listening. Right. We had never had an all time before the having and then all of a sudden we had an all time high before the having. So, you know, I, look, I think there's a lot of money here that wants to break our preconceived notions. And so, you know, one idea I've been putting out there is we might have a quiet Q4. You know, why? You know, if you're a big institution, you keep some money on the sidelines, you get the big whales to kind of sell off at the end of the year, they think the party's over. And then 2026, you know, they break the model. So, you know, bitcoin, when you think it's going to zig, it zags. And so I don't know, part of me thinks, you know, we might, we might be getting set up here by, by the big money.
- [04:12]
A
Yeah, I mean, listen, I don't have a particular feeling. This cycle has definitely been different. I know there's a lot of very deep believers in the four year cycle. But as you said, we preempted the all time high. We haven't really had the altcoin move that should have happened in the first six months of this year if we were going to be true to the cycle. And along with that seems that we have a 99.9% consensus that the fall has to be huge. And when does 99.9 consensus work out to your point? Maybe it does. Hey, but that's not usually how things work.
- [04:48]
B
We love the meme. You know, as I say, you know, you, you, you play the model until it, until it breaks. And so you know, I think there's, you know Q4 is going to be exciting until we don't see it. But I'm, you know I like, I like to prepare people for anything. Right. I think with any that the having taught us anything last year it's prepare for the unexpected and I don't know. Right. We haven't seen a huge move this year. It's been a bit, a bit of a sideways year and obviously some nice highs. But you know, and one of the things that we've seen is just you know, the consistent buying on, on the institutional and corporate side. Right. Obviously I think that's a new market dynamic. We haven't seen that in previous cycles and you know, I think we should expect that that will change up, you know, how the market moves.
- [05:34]
A
I agree with that. Another interesting metric we have here for the price movement just in. Gold hits 3900 for the first time in history. Which by the way is just wild. It's just wild. I mean, you know, is that inflation.
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B
Adjusted or is that. That's just.
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A
No, it's just. Just based on the, you know, the current price of a United States dollar, a hyper inflating United States dollar. But more interestingly is that very interesting chart here. Basically bitcoin has for quite a long time here been following gold on an eight week lag. Okay, this is a Hopium chart I would like to present.
- [06:11]
B
How's the M2 chart doing? That one was popular last time I.
- [06:14]
A
Was on this wildly up and bitcoin lagging in the same way that it should have. So that is still tracking as well actually.
- [06:21]
B
Yeah, well, hey, you know we love the charts. You know they give us hope but. But there's nothing like buying bitcoin consistently and just waiting for those returns annually. Just like just hodling. You gotta embrace it.
- [06:39]
A
So let's dive into the most exciting news of the market right now of this cycle. Bitcoin treasuries, man. Bitcoin treasuries. Obviously you talk about that institutional demand but we have this little website here called bitcointreasuries.net, that somebody on this stream with me may have presented to me and shown me and might have an active involvement in. Very cool tool that you're building here. So let's talk about bitcoin treasuries generally and then the tool specifically because you know, they cannot be ignored. This is clearly what's driving heavy demand and we're all over the place with what Each of these are and how they're approaching the market.
- [07:20]
B
Yeah, love the lead in there. So Bitcoin, treasuries.net, you know, I joined in June, July. Been a longtime fan of the site for kind of bitcoin aficionados. Was spun up by a longtime bitcoiner, nvk. You might know him from the cold card and open dime wallets. Really had humble beginnings as a simple spreadsheet and webpage that was tracking the MicroStrategy. Then MicroStrategy and Tesla holdings four years later. Pretty much the most trafficked website for digital asset company holdings. Basically the benchmark, 200 companies listed on the public side. Lots more on the public side as well. You know, you can explore these companies across 10 to 15 different metrics and adding new metrics all the time. I joined earlier this year. If people have been following me on Twitter, know that I've been pushing those updates on of all the products, the updates that are coming out. But look, I mean, I think it was pretty clear earlier this year that, you know, this category was taking off and that this site had a lot of people's attention. A lot of people, you know, sit on the site all day, look at the updates. It's updated whenever there's a new bitcoin purchase by any company. So today on the leaderboard, you get to see breaking news happen. Metaplanet flips Atom backs Bitcoin standard treasury company to become fourth place. This is the kind of activity that we're covering. But really you could think of bitcointreasuries.net as we want to basically offer people the ability to actually do due diligence on these companies. Right. So a lot of bitcoin treasury companies have come to market. A lot of them have really high expectations. We believe that there's a lot of value in giving retail investors, institutional investors, the tools to actually look at who's performing and who's outperforming and by which metrics. So we've released a slate of tools. We've got advanced metrics. So this is all kind of, I'm sure you've heard the buzzword. Scott mnav Bitcoin per share. You can look at all these companies, buy those metrics, and now you can create your own portfolio. So as of a week ago today, we've got the ability for people to kind of upload their, you know, create their own, you know, tracking. Yeah, you got to create an account, but, you know, you could build your own portfolio, track it over time and again. You can pick from any of the hundreds of companies that are on the site. So, yeah, trying to add some due diligence, you know, to the space. And generally that's the motto of the company so far. In addition to, you know, our tooling, we publish news on social media. We do a daily spaces, and we've got a monthly report that goes out to major media outlets that basically just kind of condenses a lot of the information that we're tracking with the data and makes it digestible. So, you know, we're coming out with our September report that will go over, you know, kind of trends and summaries, highlight different companies, really trying to kind of make the sector more accessible for people.
- [10:13]
A
Yeah, I, I just laugh where you say people could do their due diligence because we know that everybody just trades on what their friend tells them 30 seconds before and how fast they can get their app open to get it done. But being honest, the biggest challenge, I think, with treasury companies is having any understanding of how to differentiate between them, what they're actually doing, how much bitcoin they even actually own, how much debt they have. These are not all created equal. And as this progresses forward and there's more options as to how investors can choose to gain exposure to treasury companies. And if this is the way they want to get exposure to bitcoins can be really important. Important to choose winners because these are not all going to exist in a year or four years or 10 years.
- [11:01]
B
No, we're going to see consolidation. And right now, Scott, I mean, you're seeing that, you know, up only kind of mode wear off and the market's getting more discerning. And, you know, again, another reason why we're really happy to present this tool and, you know, showcase it and hope that more people get involved is just, you know, there's a really healthy conversation right now about how these companies are treating retail investors. And you know, what the dynamics are, right? As you alluded to. You know, obviously in some cases the companies are buying bitcoin, they're selling debt to institutional investors, but they need institutional and retail investors to purchase the stock, right, to actually accumulate and put it on their balance sheet in order for this flywheel to work. This is what Saylor sort of pioneered, is this idea that all three of these market participants could be winners, right? Strategy could buy bitcoin, it could raise money from the debt markets, it could allocate that through its shares, through its share management, and the people who bought shares would actually gain value in bitcoin. Right. And so this is something that is really talked about a lot in the market. But for people who are new, the key North Star for a lot of these companies is something called bitcoin per share. And right. This is this idea that if I put a dollar today into one of these digital asset treasury companies, I would expect to earn more bitcoin, like, over time. Right. If I put a dollar into your company today, Scott, and then in two months I had less bitcoin than I could have bought today, I made a bad investment. So, you know what I think is interesting here is this emergence of this whole kind of market category where everyone's sort of measuring and benchmarking their performance in bitcoin. And so if you're biased towards hyper bitcoinization, I keep saying, like, bitcoin Treasuries is a bit of a. It's a bit of a buzzword for.
- [12:41]
A
The moment, but forward misnomer Bitcoin hedge fund. Okay. Anyways, there's bitcoin balance sheet companies, which are people from an actual business, and invest it in bitcoin, which makes a lot of sense. If it's just financial engineering, it's a hedge fund.
- [12:58]
B
Well, I like the word bitcoin finance. Right. This is a big experiment for these companies to conduct finance nominated bitcoin terms. Right. So I get it. This is also popular today, right? This idea that these companies that are doing financial engineering, this is a bit of a fad. The companies that are going to win are operating companies that are adding bitcoin to their balance sheet consistently, as you just said. Right. They're just companies that are profitable and they're rolling those profits into bitcoin. But if they're public companies, again, the investor still needs to make that calculation. Right? They still need to be able to say, if I give you $10 today, that's where the X bitcoin today, and then in a month it's worth y bitcoin, and I have less bitcoin than I could have accrued. This investor segment is looking at that as a bad investment. Right? These are people who want to gain more bitcoin over time. This is sort of the financial alchemy here. And yeah, again, this, you know, we're trying to drive as much transparency as we can to this discussion. Because to your point, you know, there's a lot of retail investors, especially recently, that have seen companies come out and, you know, sell equity in ways that were dilutive to shareholders, you know, or even just not be completely transparent about what their strategies are for buying bitcoin. So, you know, the wheat's getting separated from the chaff at this point in terms of, you know, who's able to execute, like Meta Planet. Right. You're talking about a company that's bought nearly 30,000 Bitcoin over the last year.
- [14:22]
A
Sorry, 30,823. Looking at your. Which I don't have. There it is. 30,823. That's just crazy.
- [14:30]
B
Right? And so there's companies that prove that it's possible. Right. To deliver returns of investors denominated in bitcoin. Obviously, I'm sure you're familiar with some of the kind of more popular movers of late. Smarter Web Company is another one that a lot of people like starting to develop kind of a culture and fandom around it. But, you know, there's conventional companies as well. DDC is one that, you know, kind of a, you know, what do you call it, a delivery cooking kind of recipe company. Very conventional. Rolled over a lot of its treasury into bitcoin. Really moved up the ladder. But again, like, the leaderboard gives you a good representation of just like, how much bitcoin is actually being bought by these companies. And it's significant. Right. So even over the last month, there's the impression that the space kind of slowed down. 50,000 Bitcoin bought, you know, 5.6 billion from these companies. That's consistent buying. And right. This is. This is now viewed as a down month. Right. So 5, $5.6 billion was bought by these companies, and now we're considering this a down month. Right. You know, if this. If this buying stays pretty consistent, that's a significant, you know, buying pressure that's added to the market and should only kind of continue to help the market health over time. Right.
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A
Okay. So in your view, having looked at these all day, every day, effectively, which structures do you like when you're analyzing these? How do you view the companies that are doing it right and wrong? You don't have to tell me, like, winners and losers, per se. And even, I guess I should also say a lot of these were like experiments, throwing things at the wall. Right. We've unpacked Nakamoto here a thousand times times already. So it doesn't do much good to get into it. I. I keep telling people, I literally as critical. I went absolutely off on bitcoin treasury companies for months. I thought Nakamoto was way overpriced in the 20s. I bought some at a buck 10 and a buck 15 here, because now it's like trading at nav or a discount. And okay, I'm at the same price as Pipe investors. That seems pretty good to me. But Nakamoto, unfortunately, they announced in May. The stock goes way up because of the announcement. And then either because they didn't understand how it would proceed or it just took longer, you couldn't do anything till August.
- [16:42]
B
Yeah, I think, unfortunately, NACA has kind of emerged as the, you know, kind of talking points at the moment for, you know, how kind of really what matters here is the execution of the companies themselves, the management teams and their ability to deliver and then also manage investor expectations. And I would say, to your point, you know, you can throw all the metrics in the world and, you know, we can kind of provide all these tools to people, but at the end of the day, sentiment rules the market. Right. And, and some of these management teams now, you know, may find themselves in a position where, you know, they aren't able to generate that excitement because the fact of the matter is, you know, you can always purchase something else. Right. There's a thousand things in the market. There's public, you know, companies, you know, Gemini Public, Circle Public. There's a lot of different options for exposure to this market. And so, yeah, I think you're going to see a consolidation there. We've already seen strive the big news kind of purchasing similar scientific, kind of going through an actual bitcoin treasury company merger. There was another instance where a company called, I believe it's GDC, they're number 14 on the, on the list. They actually purchased a crypto hedge fund that owned Bitcoin and sort of catapulted themselves up the list that way into the top 20. So we're seeing people getting creative. In terms of my portfolio, I actually published my portfolio on my Twitter handle. So if you go over to the highlights and you kind of dig back there, you can find my portfolio, you know, again, active in an analysis and looking at a lot of these companies. Not as active on the investor side myself, you know, I'm going with people who have track records. You know, I put some money into Michael Saylor MSTR obviously 21 for by Jack Mallers, which, you know, I think is a company that potentially gets and.
- [18:22]
A
Tether and Cantor and Software Bank. Yeah, pretty good name.
- [18:26]
B
You know, they've got, they've got, they've got the opportunity, you know. So I think I'll continue to kind of update those as I go along and, and provide that transparency there. But I think you, I think you pointed out Right. You know, a lot of people think that, you know, there's this market, there's some insiders who are kind of making it big, really understand it. It is a big experiment. You know, there. Just because there are all these, you know, kind of new fancy analytics, it doesn't mean that, you know, necessarily, you know, someone has it figured out. You know, you remember, Scott, when, you know, tokenomics came out, right. All of a sudden there was all these ways to analyze blockchains, whether it was, you know, the social media activity around the blockchain. So, you know, we're going through a very similar phase. My, you know, emphasis as a journalist or somebody who's, you know, interested in providing public transparency in the space is like when you see kind of a dust cloud of confusing terms to charge into it and again, try to sort through it. Right. I think if you remember the tokenomics time, how much of that was correct versus wishful thinking.
- [19:34]
A
We still can't get to economics. Right. So I can answer that one very easily.
- [19:38]
B
Right. And so this may be something similar, but I think the reason that it might not be is, again, just coming back to pretty basic precepts. And Michael Saylor said this on stage at the New York City unconference a couple weeks ago, which is that there's going to be companies on a bitcoin standard. Right. As we move towards a world where bitcoin is money, there's going to be companies. And if you're going to be a public company in that environment, you should aspire to return value to shareholders. You would think in bitcoin, otherwise there isn't a compelling reason for bitcoiners to invest in you because they should be buying bitcoin. Right. So the whole experiment here is to see, you know, how possible, you know, this is obviously with strategy. Right. They delivered excess returns over bitcoin for about four years. It's been sideways for a couple months. But, you know, for about a period of four years, you were better off putting a dollar in a strategy than you were in a bitcoin.
- [20:36]
A
Right.
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B
That's just. That's just how the math works out.
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A
And so, you know, I keep saying that the public equities are just the alt season of this cycle. It's just like, how can I beat bitcoin? And when do I need to get the hell out and back into just bitcoin?
- [20:50]
B
Yeah. Though I do think, you know, you're gonna see a continued merging of these two worlds. Right. That's. I think there's this idea that These are going to be separate things. But one of the one item I like to point out to people, I know you have a kind of crypto generalist audience, but tokenization, bitcoin, to be.
- [21:05]
A
Honest, they're pretty bitcoin. Yeah.
- [21:07]
B
Well, my point is that I think that tokenization is probably a net positive for the bitcoin treasury companies, right? So as these exchanges go out and they're issuing shares through these kind of different tokenized stocks, now you have MSTR, you're in Africa, you can buy a share of MicroStrategy. It really expands the market for a lot of these companies potentially. And so I think it's an interesting nexus point, right. There's a lot of division divides in the space and sometimes there's, you know, some somewhat serendipitous moments where it sort of comes together. Right. And, and so I think this is an interesting point where it's sort of the crypto worlds, right? You know, what are they pushing for like tokenized stocks, kind of pushing these rails globally. Who is a potential category that could benefit from that? As unlikely as it seems, Bitcoin treasury companies, right. I think, you know, can out trade on these rails, can expand their market access. So you might see some interesting things. There's.
- [22:03]
A
Yeah, we're going to see a lot of differentiation through the years as to who builds actual products and banking services and finds creative ways to offer yield and basically becomes a bitcoin financial services company and not simply a leveraged bitcoin accumulation company. And that's what they all say they're going to do, right? Even strategy, I mean, strategy still is mostly just finding creative ways to raise capital to buy Bitcoin. But we know that the more Bitcoin he has, the more likely he is to become the BNY Mellon or Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan of bitcoin. Right?
- [22:38]
B
Yeah. And look, I, I think the exchanges are getting in the game, right? You saw Coinbase in Q2 start accumulating. Q3 is coming around the corner. I would be very interested to see these filings, you know, Gemini now public. You know, do they start adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet circle now public. You know, is that a move that they now that it's been sort of de risked by a first mover here, you know, with Coinbase. So look, I think, you know, the slow and steady accumulation by businesses is bullish. It's interesting and I think if anything Michael Saylor really saw. It's just that for the last 15 years, Bitcoin has been grown through individual buying. And here we are. It's the early days of the businesses kind of turning on the bitcoin acquisition. And with bitcointreasuries.net, you can follow along, follow your favorite companies and dig into these companies and you know, explore the market. And so that's what we're hoping to do.
- [23:38]
A
Yeah. Incredible tool. One that I'm definitely going to be digging in much further too as we go. And especially I just think this is going to explode. We're just going to have more and.
- [23:47]
B
More and more of these, I mean, literally up there with your naca.
- [23:51]
A
I've got naca. Like if we're, if we're doing my portfolio. I don't even know if you saw this news Yesterday, but Roundtable CEO James Heckman, who will be my guest tomorrow. X75 million merger agreement with rival to Power Web3. A lot of word salad there in the announcement, but actually I was a founding partner of this company, Roundtable. I've talked about it here a thousand times. Didn't even talk about it. But after hours yesterday the merger was announced and now is live. And it's an actual cash flowing business that will be using that money to buy Bitcoin, which is what I'm a big fan of. But also a bitcoin treasury strategy attached to that. And now crazy. It's publicly trading. I was pretty public about it. I obviously have vesting shares long term, but I bought a whole bunch when it went live after hours and because of, you know, insider trading laws and stuff, I didn't even know anything. Literally. I got, somebody sent me the press release yesterday or this, this article and I just looked up the ticker which I was unable to know in advance obviously because straight to jail, right? I even bought some more. Yeah, part of my, my transparent, my, my transparent portfolio there.
- [25:02]
B
Well, when you make your portfolio, feel free to share it. We'll, we'll push it to the community, we'll get some feedback on it. You know, maybe the smart quants out there will start giving us.
- [25:11]
A
Yeah, let's talk about that after. I would very happily like present a transparent portfolio of, of the ones that I believe in. And I mean I own Microstrategy and Nakamoto and this.
- [25:20]
B
Right. So that's pretty, pretty easy. Yeah. Hey, that's a nice portfolio. You're on your way.
- [25:26]
A
Realign. Well, now I feel like I need to buy 21 and I feel like I need to go buy this sign just like you. For anyone who missed the sign behind him I did want to show you the original which was behind Janet Yellen there.
- [25:36]
B
Yeah, it's a. Well, this is a beautiful one. We're accepting offers through DMs saying if there's any interested art collectors out there, you know, I can, I can be swayed. You know I can. You can always. Nothing's ever not for sale, right?
- [25:49]
A
Literally everything is for sale except for Michael Saylor's bitcoin.
- [25:54]
B
Hey. Yeah, you know.
- [25:55]
A
Oh, I guess we'll see. Maybe you know something, I don't know if we're saying everything's for sale. Riso, man, thank you so much. A lot of people were asking where they can find you, especially when they saw the portfolio. He's the bitcoin historian. But it's at Pete Underscore. Rizzo underscore on X. Anything else I might have missed before I let you go, man?
- [26:13]
B
No, Appreciate it, man. Keep doing the great work and I guess we'll see you in Q1, right? We'll, we'll see whether, whether we're still in bull territory or, you know, we've seen a big sell off. So be excited to check in and.
- [26:25]
A
Yeah, we're going to have to like clip this and hold ourselves accountable for our very loosely held opinions.
- [26:32]
B
Fair enough. All right, thank you, man.
- [26:33]
A
Always appreciate it. Awesome, guys. All right, ladies and gentlemen, Pete Rizzo, the bitcoin historian. If you are not following him, an absolutely great follow on X especially because he really keeps us up to date on all of the news and of course on Treasuries. And I think that right now, Treasuries, even though they've cooled off, they are going to remain the singular hot topic for bitcoin and crypto demand. And being able to track what's actually happening in that space is extremely valuable. It's Wednesday, so right before I bear on Chris, we got Aptos right up there in the corner and they had a very large announcement to share. Donald Trump Jr. Zach Wyckoff announced live that World Liberty Financials USD1 is coming to Aptos. If you haven't been paying attention to the show, you know, if you have been today paying attention, you know that Aptos is the number three blockchain for stablecoins already. And there's a lot of hype around USD1 because obviously it is Trump backed. You can see Avery right here, our good friend Avery CEO Aptos here with Donald Trump Jr himself for that announcement. So this obviously is the big news that they have. This is the first move based deployment of USD1 at all. So check out Aptos, of course. And also check out my friend Christopher Inks.
- [27:55]
C
What's going on, man?
- [27:57]
A
Nothing, man. Nothing, man. I saw you, Tom, Patty over your shoulder every time.
- [28:01]
C
Well, man, and I saw, you know, your great friend there, Trump Jr. You know, I know you guys have been like this since college.
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A
Long time friends.
- [28:12]
C
Oh man. How are you doing, man?
- [28:14]
A
I'm good, I'm doing good, man. It's nice. I was kind of talking to Pete at the beginning of the show. We have this uptober narrative before we dive into the charts. Worth talking about this with you, right? You got the October narrative. And all of a sudden, as we've seen on many, October 1, hilariously, which it becomes a meme, you see a little pop. We've seen huge ones in the past, but I mean, bitcoin looking pretty good here, right? I mean today it started at 14, it's at 16, 5 84. That's a nice little move still clearly sideways and in a range, but happens right as the government shuts down. Haha. And right as October 1st is progressively hitting across the world. Right?
- [28:53]
C
There you go, right? I mean, you know, government shutdowns, good times, right?
- [28:58]
A
Like I said yesterday, every government shutdown in history has resulted in a government reopening.
- [29:03]
C
Funny how that works, right? It's almost like they want to stay around. I don't, I don't know, but weird. But yeah, man, you know, I'm liking what we're seeing so far. You know, I've been talking about this low down here being the low. And look for this move up. We pulled a bit further back here than I had expected, but nonetheless, still printing a higher low. I was looking for a breakout above this 110, 713 to get us going up toward this 114 here. That breakout looks like this is three down and corrective. So looking for it to break up higher, we're getting right around where I was telling our students yesterday that we were potentially looking to go. We've got like a 1, 2, 3, 4 and a 5 here. And so basically, you know, somewhere between here and this 118,910would be a good rejection area because that would give us then a 50 pullback down to the monthly pivot here at one night, 113, 100 or so. But you know, anywhere from here kind of gets us a pullback down to that area or the low of the range, you know, right here, about 111, about 112. And then we'd be looking for price to rally and Break out higher. I think, I think, you know, again, I think we're doing a new all time high, just kind of getting ourselves in progress here. So, you know, again, maybe we can get this to push up toward that R1 pivot. But a rejection anywhere around here, I think brings us back right down to this area right here, that pivot to that range support. And then we'd look for that rally arranging. Man, I like it, I like it though.
- [30:39]
A
I don't have clear answers yet, but we're at the right part. I mean it's basically like we've been between 117 and 108 with a whole lot of stops around 112.
- [30:47]
C
Yeah, yeah, exactly. And you know, it's doing what it's supposed to do. I mean if, you know, again, I've brought this up before, you know, we had the range originally right here and all we've done really is pull back into the top of this range, finding support as we should expect to do, you know, before it kind of heads up higher. So I'm, I'm encouraged by the, by the overall structure here and the way in which it's come through these levels we needed to get through. So overall I'm quite bullish on it. But you know, that's not just to be blindly bullish. You know, obviously if we were to come back here and drop down below this swing low, well then all of a sudden we'd be looking, you know, potentially to break down lower here. But I don't foresee that happening at the moment. And so as long as this kind of area right here, the bottom of that range to that toward that pivot holds as support, as long as that area holds a support, we should just kind of continue looking upwards on it. I've got Ethereum here too, because everybody, man, you know, we talked about Ethereum so much, you and I did. Coming into a town, you know, listen, it, okay, yeah, it's coming a little bit further than we were thinking, but nonetheless it should ultimately head up higher. All time highs and all that. And you know, everybody was like, oh, it's dead, it's dead, it's dying, it's going dead, you know, and, and then we had the big move up and so right here again we get the whole. It's amazing how quick people change. We got the whole, oh, it's dying here again. But you know, like bitcoin, we had the previous range, we pulled back to the top of that previous range and here we go, popping off. My initial breakout areas is 4233. So I wanted to see that we've got that, you know, ultimately break that above 47, 68, 60 says new all time high coming based on the height of this pullback here. We've got a 5809 target. That's like the next kind of target we're looking at. But generally right here we're, you know, we're pushing up through this, this pivot here, so we'll see how we continue to go. But kind of like, like bitcoin there. If we can get this move up toward that R1 pivot, then that pullback becomes, you know, toward the pivot becomes 50. So, you know, generally you get this move up here, you get the pullback and then you break out. So we'll see if we can get this move up here toward 46.68 or so. And if we can around that area. I would be watching for a rejection to kind of pull back here, maybe toward 42.46 and then look for that breakout higher. Now, it doesn't have to do that, but this is just based on the structure and the pivots there. That's usually what I would look for initially. And then, you know, we just kind of wait and see if it happens. And if it happens, great. We've got a great target there on the pullback to be looking for. But if not and it pops out higher, that's fine. We're probably figuring it out beforehand. So I'm liking Ethereum so far pretty well as well. But, you know, again, right now we're just kind of hitting this previous support area. You can see we've got these candles. You sideways here. Get the sideways here, you got the support here, the resistance. And here we are kind of hitting that same area. So we definitely want to see some movement up through that, going through there and then as far as alts go. So I've been talking a bit for the past week or so about Aster. Everybody's all excited about that. It's, you know, BnB's decks there. Look at me. I know something about one of these for once anyway. Yeah, looks like we've got a one, you know, and then an A here and it looks like it's A, B, C here. So I'm thinking we're getting a flat correction here. So we could see this potentially even push up a bit higher into these, this resistance into the pivot here at A$85 or so, but watching for a rejection there to send it back down and sweep this Low, we might hit maybe like a $20, maybe something like that. And, and I'm interested, you know, if you're looking at this, you're like, oh, God, where do I long? Well, if we can get this rejection in here, anywhere from where we are up to that pivot, we're coming back down and we can break down here. You know, what you're looking for is a reaction. This is the four hour chart. You're looking for a reaction like on the 15 minute that suggests that that low may be in and you're in a reversal. And that's where you want to long that, Tom. And if we can do that, you know, we're potentially looking five waves up off the, you know, the start way down there, maybe around 16, 16 and a half, $17, maybe even higher, depending on how much juice we get out of that. But, you know, if you're looking at the low dollar there, you know, under a $50, and you're looking to run it up to 16, $17, you know, that's a 10x plus on that. So that's a good trade. But yeah, watching for this setup to hopefully materialize here where we can get that, the other one. Hey, speaking of Trump, not Trump Jr.
- [35:39]
A
Still, same thing.
- [35:43]
C
Yeah, I think this one right here, we've got a. We got a good range going here. I'm liking the volume so far. This may be the lower. We may pull on down here toward the 632 area this monthly S1 pivot, Tom. But I would be looking for, you know, an easy thing would be like an impulsive breakout and close above this descending resistance. So anybody that pulls up their chart, put it on log, draw it, you know, draw your line here to here, bring it down. If you get an impulsive breakout and close above that, I think that signals the low is in and, you know, it starts rallying. Easy targets would be the EQ here, probably right above it at about 11 or so, right up here near the top of the range at about 1470. And if we can get up there, the odds are we're gonna break out here and rally back up. So, you know, we could be looking it up here in the 30s and, and beyond with this. But I think the setup is there. It just needs to see if we get the low here. If we do pull down one more lower there. But I think it's definitely worth watching. And finally, band. Band is interesting.
- [36:48]
A
I haven't heard that one in a long time, man.
- [36:51]
C
I tell you. Right. But it looks like we've Got five up. It looks like we may have three down here. We're trying to break out through that monthly pivot. So the way I'm kind of watching this is if we get rejected here and we break on down, we'll look at that S1 pivot at about 56 cents as the likely target. And then we'll look for an impulsive break on close back above the pivot to kind of signal, okay, that low is probably in. But if we can do it here, if we can get a, you know, a daily candle impulsive breakout and close above the 68.2, that's going to be the first hint there that that low is probably in there. And so you can look for a rally up toward basically the R1 pivot. You know, same thing we're talking about on these other charts, right? A rally up to the R1 pivot, a pullback to the pivot, and then a breakout higher. And so once you're breaking out above this, this 80 cent area here, I think that signals that that 1 and 2 is likely complete. And then you've got like, you know, a wave three target up here at about $2.97, which just kind of aligns as well with, with all this support resistance here. So I think there's a, you know, a good opportunity on that there as well. So I'm watching for, you know, again, either that rejection and pull back down the S1 and then breakout, or the breakout here, maybe a rally up to the R1 and pull back the pivot to set us up and go. And, you know, when it comes to trading, that's. That's the important things, right? You got to understand what setups are. You're not looking to enter a chart just because you opened it and you say, oh, I want to get in. Right? You've got to understand what's going on with that structure. And you give it some time, you give a little patience for it to play out some, to get you some sort of setup on there. Like again, the rally up into the R1, the pullback to the pivot, and a reversal at that pivot's a good setup to set you up for some good movement higher. So, but overall, October, baby. Yeah.
- [38:45]
A
Feels October ish. Not gonna lie. I mean, the government shut down and here we go. I haven't even looked at stocks today, but I think they were probably there. I'm assuming stocks are down.
- [38:56]
C
But no, I'm, I'm in. I know we had. I'm in a trade right now with the microwave minis for the S P. And they've been rallying off that. What is this, the low here? The 6680 low. And so far, Yeah, I was kind.
- [39:11]
A
Of looking at today. Yeah, I mean, I was just kind of thinking that with the government shutdown, even though I didn't look, they were probably down, you know?
- [39:19]
C
Yeah, yeah. So, you know, people are just gonna, you know, again, at the end of the day, people are going to do what they're going to do. And I think people probably get too hung up on narratives, you know, government numbers that come out.
- [39:35]
A
Chris is in it for the tech. Chris is in it for the tech. And why not? And the number and the economic data.
- [39:41]
C
There you go. Economic.
- [39:43]
A
That's what he trades on. He trades on the fundamentals of the tech and whatever numbers the government is presenting at any given time. But we're not going to get numbers. We don't even need to worry about it now. We only have charts because there's no numbers during a shutdown. Good. There you go.
- [39:56]
C
Right, so no NFP on Friday.
- [39:59]
A
Nothing for now. All right, guys, that's what we got. TX West Capital on X. Of course, give him a follow. We've got him here every Wednesday and we will see you next week. Thanks, Chris.
- [40:08]
C
Take care, man. Dope.