Episode Overview

Podcast: The Wolf Of All Streets
Episode: Bitcoin SMASHES $93K! Is A Crypto Reversal Imminent?
Date: December 4, 2025
Host: (Scott Melker out sick; substitute hosts: Dave [A], Mike [B], James [C])
Theme:
The panel unpacks the weekend's volatile Bitcoin price action—where BTC crashed precipitously but rebounded to the same level as the previous week. They dive deep into macroeconomic forces (U.S. Fed policy, global bond yields, Japan's market moves), the liquidity environment around Bitcoin, gold’s unprecedented rally, and why volatility regimes are shifting for both "hard assets" and stocks. Throughout, they offer actionable insights, technical breakdowns, and challenge common crypto narratives like the four-year cycle and the notion of Bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset.

Key Discussion Points

Setting the Stage: Volatility Returns (00:03–04:49)

• Bitcoin “Crash” Context: After a dramatic weekend drop, BTC is exactly where it was a week ago.
• Global Macro Quick Hits (Mike):
  • Anna Wong expects incoming Fed governor Kevin Hassett to shift the institution starting January; productivity reforms à la Greenspan anticipated (01:04).
  • Black Friday real spending up 2.3% (down from 3.5% last year)—sign of slowing growth and consumer caution.
  • U.S. fixed income: Long bonds “range-bound,” short end might rally as the Fed leans dovish.
  • Commodities: Gold’s explosive rally is rare (“velocity of the rally this year… only happened a handful of times in 50 years”—02:59). This might drag equity volatility up and align gold/Bitcoin in a “hard asset rally.”
  • Crude oil: Still trending down; advice is to “wait for rallies to sell.”

Gold and Bitcoin: Diverging but Connected? (04:49–06:30)

• Dave’s Gold Call: “I still think that gold is going to run to $5,000… gold is going to lead this hard asset rally higher.” (04:49)
• James agrees, but emphasizes the macro interplay with liquidity and central banks.

Japan’s Surprise & Liquidity Shifts (06:01–11:23)

• The Yen Carry Trade is Over (James):
  • “Japan’s 10-year yield… now at 1.87%. The era of borrowing from Japan for nothing is over.” (06:30)
  • The structural move to higher yields means global “free money” is gone, impacting how the world prices risk.
  • A stronger yen = weaker DXY (USD index) = new FX volatility regime.
• Bitcoin as First Mover: “When risk is repriced over the weekend, what gets repriced first? Of course Bitcoin does. It trades 24/7, it’s going to get repriced.” (08:22)
• Leverage Washout: $700M liquidated in leveraged longs—a relatively small event in historical terms. (11:23)

Fed Policy, QT/QE, and What It Means (11:53–15:55)

• Fed Moves from QT to Neutral/Soft QE:
  • “QT is ending… that’s significant. It’s $25B not being pulled out, but not firehose liquidity coming in yet.” (11:53)
  • Potential 2019-style “QE-not-QE” scenario—a slow trickle, not a bazooka.
  • “The era of tightening is over at the Fed.” (13:33)
  • Markets have priced in too much, too fast; crypto especially quick to “get ahead of itself.”

Bitcoin’s Unique Volatility & The Four-Year Cycle Debate (15:55–22:44)

• Repricing Risk and Bitcoin as a Leading Indicator:
  • “Bitcoin does tend to be the leading edge of the spear… it doesn’t take much to move the market.” (16:22, Dave)
  • Weekend price moves often blamed on macro—sometimes just trading idiosyncrasies/manipulation.
• Four-Year Cycle Over? (James):
  • “The four year cycle for Bitcoin is over… it is the tip of the liquidity spear, showing what markets expect from liquidity and reacting in a hyper-reactive mode.” (21:16)
• Gold vs. Bitcoin as ‘Hard Assets’:
  • “If you do have a long-term view on Bitcoin, don’t forget it… step back, take a breath… But I cannot reiterate enough: caution around having leverage on Bitcoin. It is still violently volatile…” (26:40)

Narratives vs. Reality: Market Manipulation, Idiosyncrasies (27:03–36:00)

• Price/Narrative Feedback Loop:
  • “In the long run, the narrative does tend to fit price. But in the short run… people desperately search for a reason.” (27:08, Dave)
  • Outlines how Bitcoin’s weekend crash was likely opportunistic trading/manipulation, not true systemic risk.
• Funding Rates Explainer:
  • What they are, how they incentivize hedging and potentially drive dumps, especially when spot and perp markets are misaligned. (28:48)
• Bitcoin Market Structure:
  • “Liquidity is concentrated right at the bid-offer… the first $1,000 move in BTC might cost $300MM, the next $100MM, then $50MM, and so on… It always tends to be sized as a move that makes sense to people.” (29:51)
  • “If this was the S&P and the Nasdaq this morning crashing, that’d be different. But that’s not what’s happening. Sometimes people overreact.” (34:32)

Macro Cycle and Structural Traps (36:01–42:44)

• Mike’s ‘Grinch’ Outlook:
  • “Year over year, Bitcoin is down 10%. That wasn’t supposed to happen.” (36:06)
  • “We are overdue for the third negative year for the S&P 500 since 2008… Bitcoin’s front-running it.” (38:07)
• The Debt Spiral:
  • “The game is rigged against the little guy… If you do not own assets in this country, you’re going to be left behind. The Fed… must add liquidity or we don’t have money to buy the bonds. They are mathematically trapped.” (39:11–41:10, James)
  • No political appetite for real fiscal reform—printing is the path of least resistance.

Inflation, Elections, Political Realities (42:08–46:39)

• Fed, Politics, and the Election Cycle:
  • “Who’s going to be favorable for the Fed? Someone who wants ZIRP and liquidity… We’re going to see it, but the question is when and how much.” (42:08, James)
  • “Asset inflation comes first, then consumer inflation follows… and it’s very hard to stop once begun.” (43:16)
• Dave’s Inflation Thesis:
  • “You want assets to go up and consumer inflation muted, you need to get rid of all the choke points—energy and supply chains primarily.” (44:25)
  • “Black Friday sales show nominal growth, but real growth is less—Americans are trained to pull forward purchases.” (46:39)

Hashrate, Fundamentals, and the Bitcoin/Gold Dynamic (48:55–56:41)

• Bitcoin Network Health:
  • “BTC is at an all-time low discount to total hash rate… To me, that’s a buying opportunity.” (49:22, Dave)
• Mike’s Shift Away from BTC:
  • “Answers have changed. Now we have a president who’s a crypto billionaire… People got into Bitcoin to avoid exposure to that human being. Gold now allows that, crypto doesn’t. Now you’re dependent on cryptos.” (50:40)
• Commodities as New Risk Barometer:
  • “Signals I’m seeing from commodities are historic. Never had gold rally at this velocity with stock market volatility this low.” (51:08)

Risk Assets, Hot Money, and Market Regimes (52:13–58:46)

• Risk Asset Redefinition:
  • “Arguably everything other than Treasuries is a risk asset; you’re trying to outperform.” (52:13, Dave)
• Gold and Silver’s New Life:
  • “Gold has found a product–market fit as momentum hot-money trading. That is new.”
  • Silver: “Hot money is chasing it… not driven by physical demand.”
• Bitcoin Volatility is Unique:
  • Range-bound, “maturing,” still asymmetric: “Rallies get sold and crashes get bought.” (56:41)
  • “No momentum in bitcoin right now. Zero. It’s down 10% over the year.” (57:41)

Where Do Rates Go & Policy Implications? (58:46–63:44)

• Yield Curve Control, Printing, and Bifurcation:
  • “The only way [the Fed] can control [the 10-year] is by printing money and doing yield curve control. That is inflationary.” (61:11, James)
  • “Bond investors are saying: inflation is going to rage and they’re going to let it.” (63:41, James)

Closing Thoughts: Policy, Markets, and What’s Next (63:44–67:59)

• Elections, Policy, and Gridlock:
  • “If Congress is dysfunctional… for two years, you’re going to have nothing but impeachment and nothing’s going to happen. Markets love gridlock.” (65:16)
• MicroStrategy as a BTC Proxy:
  • “If Bitcoin drops 25–30% from here, MicroStrategy gets cut in half. But if BTC recovers, MSTR will outperform. That’s just the math.” (66:40, Dave & James)
  • “If you believe BTC has almost bottomed out… MicroStrategy is the one to hold for extra juice, but know your risks.” (67:06)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Japan’s 10-year yield… now at 1.87%. The era of borrowing from Japan for nothing is over.”
  — James, 06:30

• “The era of tightening is over at the Fed. We’re not tightening anymore. The question is how much liquidity and when.”
  — James, 13:33

• “Bitcoin does tend to be the leading edge of the spear… it doesn’t take much to move the bitcoin market.”
  — Dave, 16:22

• “The four year cycle for Bitcoin is over. It is the tip of the liquidity spear, showing you what markets expect from liquidity in kind of a hyper-reactive mode.”
  — James, 21:16

• “If you have a long term view on BTC, don’t forget it… but I cannot reiterate enough: caution around having leverage on something like Bitcoin. It is still violently volatile.”
  — James, 26:40

• “They are mathematically trapped. They must add liquidity or we don’t have the money to buy the bonds… They can’t get out of this. We are in a debt spiral.”
  — James, 41:10

• “Never had gold rally at this velocity with stock market volatility this low… That’s historic.”
  — Mike, 51:08

• “No momentum in bitcoin right now. Zero. It’s down 10% over the year.”
  — Dave, 57:41

• “If Bitcoin drops, MicroStrategy is going to drop more… but if you believe BTC is almost bottomed out and want extra juice, MSTR is the one to hold.”
  — Dave/James, 67:06

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Macro backdrop & bond yields – 01:04–04:49
• Gold rally & BTC comparison – 04:49–06:30
• Japan shift & BTC as risk proxy – 06:30–11:23
• Fed liquidity, QT ends – 11:53–15:55
• Bitcoin, leverage, weekend volatility – 15:55–22:44
• Market structure/manipulation discussion – 27:03–36:00
• Macro cycles & ‘Game is Rigged’ take – 36:01–41:10
• Election cycle/policy analysis – 42:08–46:39
• Hashrate gap/BTC value case – 48:55–50:41
• Commodities, risk assets, hot money – 52:13–58:46
• Yield curve, future policy, inflation – 58:46–63:44
• Gridlock & MicroStrategy wrap-up – 63:44–68:00

Summary Takeaways

• BTC’s crash/rebound is more about thin liquidity and opportunistic trading than true macro contagion.
• Gold and Bitcoin will both benefit from central bank liquidity but may not move in lock-step—BTC’s unique “spear” volatility often front-runs (and overreacts to) liquidity shifts.
• Interest rates, Fed policy, and election-year politics are all set to fuel more hard asset price action—but structural debt problems ensure continued printing and asset inflation.
• BTC’s maturing bull market, dissipating four-year cycles, and weakened correlation to traditional safe havens means traders must “zoom out”—and beware leverage in particular.
• The panel offers a nuanced, sometimes sparring discussion—critical for listeners trying to distinguish narrative from reality in both crypto and broader markets.