← The Wolf Of All Streets
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- [00:01]
A
Good morning everybody, and welcome to Crypto town hall. Every single weekday here on X at 10:15am Eastern Standard Time. We've had an interesting weekend to say the least. We just unpacked it on macro Monday with Dave, who is not here. He's on vacation. He showed up because he just had to talk about this whale selling 24,000 Bitcoin, since that's very much Dave Weisberger's wheelhouse. But we had Larry Lepard, also James Lavish, Mike McGlone, and it's pretty wild if you look at this story. We basically had a whale just market dump 24,000 bitcoin on a Sunday. And low liquidity in effectively, you know, a couple clips, market orders just selling off, you know, 2ish billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. Apparently the person still has 17 or 18 billion dollars more worth of bitcoin, which is just astounding. But clearly, you know, in context of this happening and the Fed last week and market open well, we've got the end of August, which is generally down. There's kind of a lot to talk about with what's going on in the market. Bitcoin right now though, back up at 112,000, which everybody knows is what we would view as very strong support here. Kind of been ranging from 112 to 123. Let's just take it to the panel. What do you guys think of this Bitcoin seller? 24,000bitcoin at one time. And if it means anything significant for the market, don't have the biggest panel. You guys are gonna have to help me out and just jump in. Go, Mark.
- [01:37]
B
All right. I think it. It means. It means nothing. I'll go to Lynn Alden's post even before the Jackson Hole speech was over because I think she read it ahead of time that nothing stops his train and Powell knows it. So they had him. She had a picture of him riding off in the sunset or the. The guy from Breaking Bad riding off just like Jerome Powell. And that's. That was the main takeaway. He's changed how they look at things. Now they're using the Taylor rule, which is left for dead. He switched the goal post out. Didn't even move him. The game's changed and it's dovish and it's printing forever. And you know, you take what he did there, buying 10% of intel, please help me out panel. If that's ever been done before.
- [02:24]
A
Did they buy it or was it gifted?
- [02:28]
B
They're gonna.
- [02:28]
A
It was free.
- [02:29]
B
Was it Gifted.
- [02:30]
A
Yeah, Free.
- [02:33]
B
So has that ever happened for in non wartime or even during wartime?
- [02:38]
A
Well, and then in China, I wonder.
- [02:41]
C
If we'll see crypto companies start giving like 10 of their tokens to Trump like they used to do with Vitalik and things like that. You know, people would donate.
- [02:47]
A
They'll give it to him personally instead of the US Government.
- [02:51]
C
And then have.
- [02:52]
A
Him tweet about it.
- [02:53]
C
That'll be the funniest timeline. If he tweets about it, if he gets like a small share of some.
- [02:56]
A
New coin, the greatest in history. Look at his meme coin.
- [03:00]
B
Yeah, thanks. Thanks to the coins, fellas. And then the last one is Bo Hinds, I think, you know, being a coordinated move to go to Tether and if you probably already talked about that, but those, those three things, just show me. It is grow, baby, grow. It is inflation because no one's in charge. The US Dollar is not in charge, and deficit spending is alive and well. That's how I kick it off on recent events. Back to a longer theme.
- [03:31]
A
The intel story is wild. Probably deserves an entire show of its own. I think we dig into that further. I want to talk more about bitcoin. I mean, it's sitting literally, Cleanly right on 112,000 right now. Like this is, you know, and if that's as low as this goes, it's just massively bullish. I also thought that the fact that, you know, he sold 24,000 Bitcoin, price went correct me, you know, 14 to 10ish. I think it was a $4,000 drop in a matter of minutes, but bounced right back and very quickly was back almost to where it started. I mean, you had bitcoin close the day at 113. It opened the day at 115.5. So even on a Sunday with somebody selling that amount into the market, it was immediately absorbed by clearly sitting orders there because people weren't probably actively watching on a Sunday. So I thought, you know, that, that looked actually pretty bullish to me, but go ahead, Carlo.
- [04:26]
D
Good morning, Scott.
- [04:27]
A
Well, morning, Carlo.
- [04:29]
D
First off, you see that dip? You buy that dip. I mean, I, I love the Sunday flush. And it spilled over into Monday. You know, I called it live on Friday and the receipts are there. I predicted the exact opposite of what Powell was going to do. I thought he was going to continue to dig in and resist. And I thought that that was going to be his legacy, that that was the hill that he was intending to die on. I thought, sure, we're going to get a rate cut. In September, a modest one, but we're going to probably have a prolonged delay and the banana zone would kick in after Trump installs and own Fed chair. And you talked about it this morning on your show, and I think we can all agree that that is pretty well programmed. Regardless of what follows the September cut, I think we know that there's only one tool left in the box. There's only one lever to pull. And in May, when we do get a new Fed chair who's going to be more in line with Trump's agenda, we're going to probably see aggressive rate cuts, and that's going to be a good thing for risk assets and for Bitcoin. So I called it wrong, but I still had capital deployed and took advantage of the fact that we gave it all back from Jackson Hole to Sunday. Gave it all back, and we're right back to neutral. And I think my prediction will stay choppy between now and when people actually see a rate cut in September.
- [05:49]
A
Yeah, and that's the best point, and it's one Dave has made here consistently. As, as was mentioned on macro Monday this morning. It's so, like, impatient and wild that we deeply analyze every single Fed comment and the potential of rate cuts at this moment in time, because we literally know exactly what's coming when PAL is gone. Like, you know, we're bitcoiners here. We're supposed to be zoomed out and worried about what happens in a year, five years, 10 years, forever. But we're worried about what's going to happen in two weeks. Even if PAL makes it all the way through and doesn't make a single cut, we know that Trump's going to get exactly the kind of person he wants after Powell, and we're going to see a massive rate cutting cycle.
- [06:33]
D
It's coded. It's totally coded.
- [06:36]
A
For better or force. Right. I'm not making a value judgment, it's just this is the, like the most telegraphed play in history and they've been setting us up for it for months. You know, they're like greasing the wheels. Yeah. So go ahead, Rudolph.
- [06:55]
E
Sorry, try to get the mute button there. But on the basis of the rate cuts, I want to actually ask a question to you guys. Looking at the data historically, after each and every rate cut, there's a very short period of, excuse me, very short period of the market rallying, being bullish. That's typically followed by a heavy recession and a pullback. What's your guys take on that? That we managed to get the Soft landing because everybody wants the rate cut now. Everybody wants alt season. Everybody wants a little bit more bull market. But what's your guys take on on that? Because that's the data, that's the trend and the way it's been since forever.
- [07:34]
A
Mark.
- [07:36]
B
Hey, thanks. Yeah. Is that Rudolph?
- [07:40]
E
Yes, Rudo. It's like a version of Rudol.
- [07:44]
B
Hey Rudo, I guess I would say this is more like on the economy since 08. I would have what a statistician would call a. Is it a GARCH approach weighting the more recent data Our, our recessions have not. If they have followed a rate cut, they've been short the, the recession since 84. If you were born in 1984, you've lived in a recession 7% of your life from 1930 to 1980, you in a recession 35% of your life. We just don't have recessions and if we do, they're short. So I don't, if we do have a recession, it won't hurt the assets, it'll hurt wages, it'll hurt some industries and then we'll recycle with more support on the fiscal side. So I don't see that changing which is why yes, you're right, we may have a blip but it, it won't be impactful for anyone in Bitcoin or owning assets. I think.
- [08:47]
A
Rudo, did I answer your question?
- [08:48]
E
Yeah, it's. Yeah, fair enough. Let's see how it plays out. Look, I'm a technical analysis so I tend to take things level by level. So for me it doesn't really, you know, impact me that hard. But you know, I, I tend to believe, I'm a firm believer in the trend is your friend until it bends. And you know, there's no real data saying that the pivot needs to happen and there's needs to be a recession immediately but, or a crash in the markets. But there's typically after that has been, you know, correction and I think you said it nicely, Mark, I can, I can take that as a good answer.
- [09:22]
B
Thanks my friend Dan.
- [09:25]
C
Yeah, I think to give a bit of a different view, the establishment hate Trump. They hate him, everybody hates him. And I think Jay Powell is at pains to do these rate cuts. He's really at pains at rate cuts and I think he's holding off as long as he can. I do wonder if now that Jay Powell is turning the corner and he's starting to consider these rate cuts and he's telegraphed it in Jackson Hole and this kind of stuff I wonder if the data is really bad. I wonder if we're already in the start of a recession and that's why things are breaking apart from what I know in the Fed. I have a friend that works at the Fed for a while and he says from his people there that there's a bit of a mutiny at the Fed against Jay Powell at the moment. A lot of people, low level people, don't really like him, are kind of not following his orders and things like that. So I don't know, take that with a grain of salt that I received it with, but yeah, I wonder if JPOW is cutting it now because it's really bad, because I think they didn't want to cut it and give him an economic boost, but I wonder if now they're doing it because they're really forced against the corner, the jobs numbers are pretty bad, all that kind of stuff. Dunno, dunno.
- [10:36]
A
But that's when they're supposed to cut to be fair, like not listen, they use lagging data. That's always been the criticism, right, Is that it will be too bad by the time they cut or something like that. And we know that we had transitory, quote unquote inflation on the way up. But I mean, Powell, to be fair, I guess. Not that I have a pal fan by any stretch, but he should cut when things are bad. That should be the catalyst, right? Shouldn't cut when things are good. Yeah.
- [11:01]
C
I just wonder if they're worse. I wonder if they've been trending bad for, for a while and he's allowed them to get very bad before he does the cut right, out of stubbornness, you know, he clearly didn't want to. You saw when they were looking around that building site and Trump was giving him a bit of a ribbon about the numbers and he's like, what are you talking about? I just wonder if the data is worse than they think. I don't know, I'm. I'm not a conspir.
- [11:23]
A
There is.
- [11:23]
C
I know some of the guys on here, they, they go in for the conspiracies. I've never really been in for that, but I wonder if it's worse, you know, if it's worse than we think it is.
- [11:32]
A
All right, let me, let me debate. Also have specific thoughts on the Fed here before we move. Happy to keep entertaining this, but also happy to move on because I'll ask the, the most important question. Gary, you and I were talking about this top of last week or end of last week, I think, on Friday. Let's I just want to know from the panel views on the market money where your mouth is, are you buy. Are you a buyer at 112,000 B.
- [11:57]
F
Micro Strategy Thursday afternoon at 3:38? Yes, I am a buyer. The Fed is dead. It doesn't matter what he does. He's completely out of control. I love what Mark said. Recessions are completely out of the dictionary now. They're not allowed, they're illegal. Look, I think what, you know, Trump buying a grabbing 10 of intel is a big deal. That's a big deal. I don't think it's the last deal either. Intel is basically, hey, I'll give 10 of my equity away to have you as a client. And I think you're going to see more of this, you're going to see more nationalization of companies. And I actually support this. This will, this would probably be a really good debate or discussion. Look, once we decided we were not going to globalize once that whole COVID 19 trap imploded on them, we have multiple markets now, Poly Market and every player that's competing with the United States is nationalized for all practical purposes. China, India, Pakistan, Russia, all of Europe. I mean I think this is where this is headed and I think Americans going to be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, what are we doing? Like church and state has been completely combined. But I do think that's where we're headed because it's just going to be you're not going to survive as a small guy in the global, a global market like this. I don't think.
- [13:28]
A
Yeah. I think the issue there though is the free market. Right. You can't imagine. They have to imagine Intel's going to get a tremendous advantage being owned 10% by the government.
- [13:41]
F
Well, they're going to get, they're going to get huge contracts. Right. So. And quite frankly that's better than the US Government spending money with a shitty contract, which is what we have right now.
- [13:53]
A
Yeah, I'm actually, yeah. I find the idea of a sovereign wealth fund that was floated months ago by Lutnik to be really, really interesting. I wonder structurally how this works. Is this, is this effectively the beginning of a sovereign wealth fund and it just hasn't been stated as such yet?
- [14:09]
F
I, I think they're trying to, they're doing things inside what they already have budgeted. So there, if you really look at what they did with this, they fit the intel deal under two contracts that had already been blessed but they had not been given the intel. Yeah. So they just buried those deals in There. And intel should benefit as a shareholder. And it's symbiotic. US Government wins, Intel wins. US Government wins. That's much better play than just throwing the money into these vendors.
- [14:42]
A
Yeah.
- [14:45]
F
Exactly. Yeah. Well, it's been allocated.
- [14:48]
A
Mark, Mark, I think you lifted your mic. Can you guys hear Mark? I cannot.
- [15:01]
G
No, he's. He's muted.
- [15:02]
A
Yeah.
- [15:03]
B
Hey, guys.
- [15:03]
A
Okay, there he is. You never know in this, in spaces whether someone's talking. You're just not hearing it. Go ahead, Grant. I mean, go ahead, Mark.
- [15:09]
B
You always give me an out, Scott. I appreciate that. That was an own goal. I was going to go take the other side with Gary until you said when you were talking about, look who's rising. China and India. And it's centralized and it's government sponsored. You're right. If we tried that with spending, we would have even more of a civil war because of our quality of life and the siphoning of cash away from the support structure at our much higher income levels or GDP per capita. But what was done with intel, which was a gift, what you're saying is there's maybe tax breaks. I don't know. That's different. And that actually has plausibility. It's crazy. The trial balloons that are going on and it just underscores the frenzy and the anxiousness of the US Government, for good reason, about, you know, the loss of its unipolar power and, and. And the rising of, you know, China and India. So I agree about a non. What they say, a non budget impact investment. Crazy. Does anyone know what intel got for this?
- [16:23]
A
The power of the. Yeah, they got the government.
- [16:26]
F
They got these two contracts. Mark. I'll see, I'll try to.
- [16:29]
B
I'll find. Okay.
- [16:30]
F
I mean, they're two. Look, there, there's contracts you can go into the U. S. Government. If you can solve a problem, they will give you a contract called indefinite quantity, indefinite time. It's E, I, Q, I, D. You know how they give all these acronyms and literally you just go in and you know what the minimum is? You don't know how long this contract's gonna last. Could last 30 years. And it has an unlimited value on it. So I think I'll try to find the post, but it's clearly two contracts that they intel acquired with this transaction.
- [17:10]
A
Got it.
- [17:11]
B
Thanks.
- [17:14]
A
Tom and Adam.
- [17:18]
H
Yeah, I think so. Sovereign wealth funds are for nations that have net surpluses, usually through natural commodities, whether that be oil or natural gas or whatever. And these are shared resources by the nation. I think it's Really a tricky situation when you have the US government saying publicly traded equities are national strategic resources that we should invest in and then effectively play kingmaker for some of these assets and crowd out public market competition because they have a vested interest in these individual equities or businesses. And this is exactly what capitalism was made to push against in terms of creative destruction and bringing new and interesting startups to the space. So I think it's really dangerous territory if we keep going down this line personally. I mean, right now it looks good and then it's great because we all care about chips and we think that's a new and interesting commodity, but I think it's a super slippery slope, bro.
- [18:23]
G
Yeah, exactly, Tom. Yeah, I mean, I appreciate Gary's point. It's like this is kind of the way it's going, so let's get in front of it and encourage it and stuff like that. But at the end of the day what you're doing is you're basically saying, hey, let's nationalize every, every company in the us make it a symbiotic relationship. I almost, I almost vomited my mouth hearing that. You know, just having worked with USAID for years and you know, these, you know, never ending contracts we had, we joked, you know, in the office that it took us, you know, half a million dollars to distribute $50,000 in aid, like if that's the way we want to go. It is a terribly slippery slope. And you know, you're basically saying this is the only way we can beat China. And I just think it's the wrong way to approach it. I think we can beat it, beat it with free market and real capitalism and get away from this basically a grift which is like, okay, now we're just going to make it transparent and open on how you're going to gift part of your company to the US government if, if that's the case. Well, yeah, let's open up the wallet addresses. I got a bunch of, you know, crypto companies I work with. We can start donating tokens too and, and just basically pay for play. I mean that's, that's the road we're going down.
- [19:38]
F
I guarantee you that there have been token guys and I won't mention any names.
- [19:43]
G
Oh, it's already happen.
- [19:45]
F
$4 billion.
- [19:46]
G
Absolutely.
- [19:46]
F
I mean, XRP, I mean I've been offered free, I mean, stuff so.
- [19:51]
G
100%, dude. 100%. I mean we already saw that with the.
- [19:54]
A
Also through World Liberty Financial. Let's remember that there's, you know it doesn't have to be to the government, but obviously. Yeah.
- [20:00]
F
Hey, I just want to respond one thing Adam said. Adam, you said the premise is that we have a free market. And I'm going to suggest.
- [20:08]
G
Bro, it's not.
- [20:08]
A
No, no, no, that's.
- [20:09]
F
Sorry, that's not my premise at all.
- [20:11]
G
There's zero free market right now. There's no free market.
- [20:13]
A
Yeah.
- [20:13]
F
So this is the only way this game ends up happening. Right. Like you can't if we. I know it like, I hate it because I am a, like leave price alone and the market will actually work. But we have interventionists and I don't see how the US Government doesn't do more of this if I'm a, if I'm a broken company. And I think there's a lot of broken companies, a lot. They're just hanging on. Hell, man, I would probably have somebody inside the government looking through companies. Which one of these guys could we take and turn into a beast? Now one of the ways they could work around this bitcoin thing, why couldn't they go to the intel and go, hey, look, we'll take a billion of this, but we want you to start putting bitcoin on your balance sheet so they do a workaround.
- [21:04]
A
And by the way, a sovereign wealth fund, when it was first discussed, a lot of people pointed out that could be a way that they could buy bitcoin without it being on the, you know, coming from other budgeted areas just as an investment. Basically depending on what the allocation is to the sovereign wealth fund, you know, in total, bitcoin could be 20% percent of the sovereign wealth fund.
- [21:25]
B
Right.
- [21:27]
C
What happens next when foreign companies start giving some of their shares to. To American company. To the American presidency. What was when Qatar starts handing over some of their, some of their stuff.
- [21:37]
A
They'Re doing it to American universities instead.
- [21:41]
G
I guess the only positive thing would be that it would be transparent in some sort of way. At least we'd know who's gifting the money rather than like close behind closed door deals being done. I mean, in theory, if it was like completely transparent, you know, I mean, I hate to say it, but it could be a better system than the system we currently have.
- [22:00]
A
Yeah, I want to talk a bit more about bitcoin here because it is at a key level. Gary, you said you bought Microstrategy. You know, I bought Bitcoin at 112 for full transparency. I don't think they'll fill, but I'm laddered all the way down to 88. I've got buy orders in. So I would love to see a bigger correction that we're getting, but I would love everybody else's opinion here. I mean, Grant, obviously you're publicly on the books. You, you bought a TH000. You're buying more. I think you were trying to get up to 3,000 this year. Is this a level you're interested in? How you approaching it? Not sure you heard me. Tom, what do you think? Oh, yeah. There you go. There you go. You guys hear him? No. No, nothing.
- [22:46]
H
I don't know. Yeah. I don't know if Grant was in the shower in some sort of rainforest.
- [22:53]
A
No, it was Gary that had the rain and I, and I was going to make a comment that I know that Gary's sitting outside his house because we live a couple miles apart and it's pouring. I know exactly where Gary's sitting right now in this show. Totally.
- [23:04]
F
Dude. I'm smoking a cigarette watching this awesome weather. It's been an awesome 10 days of just nice storms. Hey, let me just. Maybe I can help answer the question. I think once you start on this strategy of buying bitcoin and putting it on a balance sheet in any way, whether it's private or public. Well, private is probably a little bit easier. But I think it doesn't matter where the price is. If, I mean, you just keep stacking and packing for this strategy. Look, look. And on the price. I don't know why anyone would be like if I'm a new guy in this market and I see 24,000 bitcoins sold on a Sunday two weeks after 80,000 were sold, and I can't get it below 108. Dude, I love this price. This is a beast. I mean, we go to 123 very fast. I think once all this noise is out, I don't think it's going to last two weeks. I, I know we're all waiting for the summer to get over, but it feels like it's coiled up, man. Even some of the alts are like the miners are moving micro strategies back above where it was Friday, so. Or near that. So. Looks strong to me, man.
- [24:26]
H
Yeah, I, I agree. I think what you're seeing here is the digital asset treasury effect here and that any dip is then T wopped into by these larger entities. I mean, if you look at any of these rises besides the, the Powell, you know, Fed pivot, you've seen a pretty steady, steady rise in price. So like, look at ETH this morning from whatever it was a Few hours ago, three, four hours ago, wherever your local time is and then just a steady climb up. It's been doing that the last few days because all these guys and same thing with bitcoin, have just like slugs, they're, they're willing to throw in and have the ability to throw in from raising these money at the money shares and then, and then purchasing each of these individual assets. So I think you just have a really strong floor from all this capital that's sitting on the side guidelines right now. And their express purpose for each one of these digital asset treasuries is to buy those native assets. So any dips they're going to get, they gotta buy.
- [25:23]
A
Branch your mic working?
- [25:24]
F
Yeah, yeah, I think it's working. Hey, why AI's here but I can't keep a good signal. Why would somebody dump this weekend and last weekend and why on a Sunday night rather than waiting till the volume's up?
- [25:42]
A
Yeah, I mean the. All I could manage in the conversation earlier with Dave Weisberger and he runs coin routes so he actually sees a lot of this price action. It was definitely effectively a market dump. So the question is either, I guess there's a few scenarios. One is they're idiot. Two is accident, like I guess a fat finger. But three, which he thought was the most likely from looking at it, is that the person has either a short leverage position, profited massively from, you know, a $4,000 quick drop, or they want to open a leverage long position, sold the market down to their positions and build that up on the other side. But that's literally illegal everywhere. It's not so illegal in crypto. But if you did that on a stock, you, you know, go, go directly to jail, do not pass go. So it's the dumbest possible way to sell. I mean they could, you know, sell slowly, it can hire somebody, but to just dump it is ridiculous. And as you kind of said, Sunday is the dumbest time you could possibly do it. At the end of August, even being the fitness books that we have. So it's pretty wild.
- [26:45]
F
I mean, you can't think the first piece is that he's dumb is you got to kind of throw that one out. If he's got 24,000 bitcoin, he's got.
- [26:54]
A
17 billion or more worth, by the way.
- [26:56]
F
So they know exactly who sold it.
- [26:59]
A
Well, they can see the wallet, right? So it's. They, they don't know who it is, but they know the entire size of, I guess his position, which was about, you know, 20ish billion.
- [27:08]
F
The most important part of this though, whatever the reason was that they did it. Let's assume he was an idiot or he tried to shove the price down so he could make a bunch of money on a, on a chart. The price held extremely well. This is awesome when these people do this. Okay. There's literally been 104 very small time frames and we've had a 3% retracement.
- [27:37]
A
Wow. Yeah, it's, it's, I mean the strength is incredible. I mean Tom laid out the clear consensus which is that Even if you sell 25000 into this market, there's just bids and there's endless bids. I mean we, and we have more transparency on that than ever before because we have these treasury companies sitting on multiple billions of dollars that haven't bought yet are looking for the approval to do so. Yeah, go ahead Mark.
- [28:03]
B
Yeah, I love first of all Scott, how you said it's even bad for crypto when you said that kind of action, it would be bad, it would be illegal in stocks and it's even bad for crypto just shows you that we still have some bad actors. I think it's a proper testament to some of the, you know, transparency or lack of what we have. As far as the 24,000 it, given that it only went down a hair, could it have been a transfer by someone doing like an atom back? By committing money to a bitcoin treasury entity and having to do a third party transaction mean it couldn't be a direct transfer. They went to the market and the market bought it. So it was an arm's length with some slippage because I think that the bitcoin treasury company and the, the little.
- [28:50]
A
Window, but still they could have gotten a better price, right? I mean it doesn't like unless it had to be done. There are more holes done in an hour.
- [29:00]
B
There are more holes in my argument, but that's as far as where the demand came from. You know, that's the only thing. Why would someone else, as you said, sell 24000 now unless their spouse found the most beautiful house in Hawaii that they finally wanted to buy?
- [29:16]
A
I don't know.
- [29:18]
B
I agree, but that's my thought. It's just the transfer into a bitcoin treasury company, but the slippage makes no sense.
- [29:27]
A
Agreed. Right. But and here's the other part, just to poke maybe a slighter hole in that is that if you're transferring to a bitcoin treasury company, these guys are usually doing it to be tax Efficient or to gain some kind of premium. Listen, I don't know what jurisdiction he's coming from, so it may not be an issue. But to market, sell it, make less money, have the taxes on the entire sale and then fund in dollars. It would be a pretty brutal way to go about this, in my opinion.
- [29:53]
F
I, I would bet you this is an offshore guy put a monster short shard on like he the out of that thing.
- [30:01]
C
I was gonna say when you were saying when you.
- [30:03]
A
And then you find the. And, and Sunday afternoon is the time you can move the market the most because nobody.
- [30:09]
C
When you're saying this is illegal even in crypto. I'm sitting here in Asia going like you got. You guys heard of Asia?
- [30:16]
F
That would not be legal. See, this is a global market now. It would not be legal to do that.
- [30:20]
C
This stuff in America happened in America.
- [30:23]
A
Sure.
- [30:23]
C
It wouldn't be legal in America. Some parts of Asia that I've been around worse stuff and goes off than that on a Tuesday.
- [30:28]
F
I gotta tell you, I would do this in a heartbeat. This market is going to allow us to do this. You most certainly are going to have it. For people that are hodling, you should be very comfortable. People are able to push the market around in an hour or two, really impact it. But the impact is only 3 or 4% for a very short period of time. So like for an immature market that is so healthy, man, this thing should be gapping all over the place and it's not.
- [31:01]
A
Yeah, the bounce was really encouraging. But then obviously that was kind of filled up overnight and into this morning. But this feels like we're just trading sideways. It's end of August. But back to the question to the panel. Like, are you guys interested in buying Bitcoin at 112?
- [31:18]
B
Absolutely. Absolutely. This, this is a. You know, I took. We talk macro, we talk what ifs. 18 months ago, late 23. We put out a, A piece when I was at 3 IQ calling for 250 at the end of this year. And the news has only gotten better. We're far away from it. But I am not removing that mid case for bitcoin at the end of the year. You can't because of the coiled spring, because of the nature and maybe March. But yes, I think this is an unbelievable setup. Positively. And people will be shaken out and they'll be very unhappy if they are.
- [31:59]
E
Bruno, I, I have to say stay above 104. I can say yes, absolutely. But there's one thing I just want to put the counter argument in when you buy something, especially when you're getting into bitcoin for an example, you want to use fundamental analysis, what we're doing now, looking at where it's going to go, plus technical analysis to measure the risk. When you want to take profit on something, you can only use technical analysis because the fundamentals will always remain the same. They will remain good, you know, so previous bull markets you had bitcoin still being Bitcoin still being good and then you had Bitcoin retracing 70, 60%. So if you're trying to get more bitcoin, now is also a good time to start selling some of that so that you can put the money aside to buy the incoming dip. And you know, these stops tend to take a little bit of time. We find that bitcoin tops out, three months later, the alts start topping out. Then only real bear market complacency takes time. So yes, stay above 106. Bitcoin is a beautiful but as soon as it starts moving below that, the strong berries divergence is going to take effect and we're going to see a prolonged retrace.
- [33:21]
A
Anyone else? 112 like it? Mark, I know you like it. Gary, I know you like it. Grant, I think you probably like it. What do you guys, everyone else, what do you think? I'm just trying to get a gauge here for where everybody's sentiments actually stands on this panel. Because when you go on Twitter, obviously you have a lot of people, bull market's over, it's going down, want to buy much lower. And then there's the 250,000 by next week, people.
- [33:49]
H
Yeah, I think we're at the part of this asset class and that this little small crypto Twitter community unfortunately does not matter for big macro assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum like it used to. Now you've entered the real capital markets where you're having big traders actually put positions on in these assets and digital asset treasuries are part of that. ETFs are a part of that. Capital allocators that are following along Thomley and others are a part of that. And these people who are going to put on billion dollar trades are not people who are going to be shit posting on CT anymore. So for these major assets, I don't think it matters at all what people on Twitter are posting anymore. It's really simple flows over people's opinions and we have the flows for bitcoin for eth and you just saw Solana, another billion dollar treasury vehicle being announced like that's. What matters.
- [34:48]
A
Carlo, I thought you had your hand up before, but I'm not sure. Maybe you were just high fiving and fist bumping.
- [34:54]
D
Oh, no, I'm. I'm buying it all day at 112. I think it's a great entry.
- [35:00]
A
And there was also some sort of rumors that. And I have not seen the evidence of this. There were other whales I know that were dumping bitcoin to buy eth, but some people saying that this whale was also buying bitcoin to buy. Selling bitcoin to buy. I believe it was on look on chain. Has anybody seen that? There's clearly. I saw it.
- [35:20]
H
I did.
- [35:20]
F
I did not confirm it. I also heard rumors about BNB Finance. You know, their. Their wallets were empty, moving eth.
- [35:30]
H
I think it was 2.2 billion sold in bitcoin and then 1.6 purchased in spot eth. And then like 5 or 600 million in per pur long eth on hyper liquid. Was that.
- [35:43]
A
Oh, was this like. Forgive my ignorance, but can you tie those to the same person or is it just. Could be coincidental?
- [35:53]
H
Same wallet, same person verified by people than me? Yeah, it was the same.
- [35:58]
A
So, yeah. Okay, so they def. So it's true. I mean, you can see it. What does that mean for eth? Does that make you guys buyers for Ethereum here? Where are we at 4651? I mean, eth got like a hair's breadth away from 5,000 yesterday, two days ago. Can't even remember at this point. Yeah, yesterday and now trading at 4650. So does ETH feel like it's at a good price here, Tom?
- [36:25]
H
Every, every day eth's under 10k is a good day. I, you know, I think you and.
- [36:29]
A
I have been saying that for like years, by the way. So I don't want people to think that's a new sentiment. We took our beatings repeatedly on YouTube for that comment. Oh my God.
- [36:38]
H
Yeah, for a while. But I mean, the fundamental story has not changed. I mean, the story that has changed is just these flows, right? I mean, you have Tom Lee trying to buy 5% of Ethereum. He has the. At the money offering to be able to do that. And the toggle really is trading volume, which he has, so he could sell his shares and then buy more ETH. So he's been doing 4 to 5 billion a day and he can sell 4 or 500 million into that. Get cash by ETH pretty easily. So that continues.
- [37:04]
A
Great.
- [37:04]
H
Then you have Joe Lubin shop doing the same thing. And then Ethzilla and all these others are looking to get 5% of ETH. So it's a big rush, right? I mean, you look at the numbers on how much ETH is left on exchanges, it's 18 million ETH, roughly 900 billion, I think in terms of. Or, sorry, 90 billion. And how much is left? So, hey, there's just that much out there. So this is what causes short squeezes and quick price action as people try to pile into an asset where there's not much supply. So I'm bullish, but I've been bullish for a while, so you can ignore me.
- [37:37]
A
Mark. Yeah. You were jumping off.
- [37:40]
B
Yeah, I think near term it was like, you know, Dave said a while ago, he's not an XRP bull, but, you know, when it was a buck 80 or 210, he said going up higher, he wouldn't get in the way of it. I think XRP is the same way. I'm not, you know, that's, that's not on my. I'm focused on Bitcoin. But as far as the stablecoin game, that is for real. And it's going to involve Ethereum and I think how that plays out, it's going to be definitely more upside than downside from here from a fundamental standpoint. And then, you know, we just heard about the supply demand. But just from a fundamental standpoint, the stablecoin dynamic is in early innings by a lot of.
- [38:26]
A
Yeah, I agree with that. It'd just be interesting to see if Circle and others create their own chains to capitalize on that rather than doing it on the current blockchains where they're deployed so heavily. But only time will tell how much demand there is for that. I'm also kind of having these Spidey senses that Solana might get a nice run soon, but that's just sort of my gut. It looks a bit bottomed out against Ethereum, so maybe it could kind of become the darling here as the treasury companies on that side ramp up, up. Some of whom I know. But yeah, guys, I think we covered basically everything we had today, so go ahead and wrap it up. Everybody in the audience, give our amazing panel a follow, a high five, a heart, whatever, whatever you do on the Internet to make people feel good about themselves. I don't know. Getting old. Don't know anymore. But we will be back tomorrow, 10:15am Eastern Standard Time for another crypto Town hall. Gary, Adam, Dan, Carlo, Mark Rudo, and formerly Grant. Thank you guys for joining see you.
- [39:26]
B
Thanks. All right.